7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
Dare I mention the words linear and growth?
Doesn't even seem to be linear, it does seem to be potentially slowing down already *touch wood*
Though I would hesitate to say that for certain yet.
I certainly hope so too. That would imply that the measures imposed at the moment are having some effect. Ideally you'd see cases plateau and then drop if you've driven R below one.
Cases and positivity rates I'd like to see drop - and see a gap increase between testing capacity and testing numbers.
7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
Dare I mention the words linear and growth?
Doesn't even seem to be linear, it does seem to be potentially slowing down already *touch wood*
Though I would hesitate to say that for certain yet.
I certainly hope so too. That would imply that the measures imposed at the moment are having some effect. Ideally you'd see cases plateau and then drop if you've driven R below one.
Are 10pm bar closures and highly confusing - and sometimes arbitrary and daft - rules around travel and socialising in some areas of the UK really responsible for this potential levelling off? Hmm...I believe it's more likely this was never going to take off for a second time like it did the first, for whatever reason.
7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
Dare I mention the words linear and growth?
Doesn't even seem to be linear, it does seem to be potentially slowing down already *touch wood*
Though I would hesitate to say that for certain yet.
I certainly hope so too. That would imply that the measures imposed at the moment are having some effect. Ideally you'd see cases plateau and then drop if you've driven R below one.
Cases and positivity rates I'd like to see drop - and see a gap increase between testing capacity and testing numbers.
Quite. I think the government has missed a trick by not ordering the 15 minute tests that a lot of other countries have done. Seems like a no brainer to deploy to hotspots, while leaving the regular PCR infrastructure for everyone else and for care home and NHS staff that need the higher specificity.
Was going to say this. Not exactly the doubling of cases per week that was the worst case scenario put out by Whitty & Vallence last week. Nowhere near.
One would hope not! If it were, that would be in indication that social distancing measures were having no effect whatsoever. Also, as Philip_Thompson says, more positives are likely to be missed as the rate increases.
Wait, this is using reporting date not specimen date.
Whilst I accept that specimen date is better it really shouldn't make a materialdifference to the trend unless there are other changes. Here the other changes seem to be a fairly rapidly increasing number of tests which really ought to be exaggerating the trend, not reducing it.
A big problem with that chart is that the forecast is for all infections I believe, but the results are only for those that are tested. There are almost certainly thousands of infections being missed every day. A better comparison would be against the ONS survey, which does at least attempt to quantify the total infections in the population.
It's a both/and. There is a stupid woman in the Telegraph today complaining in her first paragraph that we should be sheltering the shit out of the elderly and let everybody else get on with it, and in her fourth how terrible it is that 80 somethings can't see their grandchildren. That's lethal-to-the-elderly pandemics for you. And pandemics is really what it is: Johnson is a bumbling arse but that is still less than 1% of the problem. In a Cnut vs the tide scenario there is no point in telling Cnut to up his game, or you'll replace him with SKS. It doesn't make any difference. British exceptionalism is wrong in both directions: we aren't even uniquely useless, we are just having a shit pandemic like every other country in the entire world. Including fcking Sweden.
You're having a moment. Put your BLM banner down and focus.
It is terrible that 80-something grandparents can't see their grandchildren.
Lockdown: 80-something grandparents can't see their grandchildren. Risk segmentation: 80-something grandparents can't see their grandchildren.
Either way, 80-something grandparents can't see their grandchildren.
7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
I think sample date data is better than headline figures for gauging changes..
The bigger issue is the 1 week lag everything has..
I'm posting using the daily raw figures (stripping any known adjustments) precisely because I'm a mere punter, saying what today's figures look like - tomorrow is another day and can go another way. Presumably, the government's stats people, have some handle on the raw data and any day to day bumps in reporting, so have at least some sense when there are artefacts in this data that might give misleading R and can fully cross-correlate ONS, raw figures, figures by completed date, hospital admissions etc, etc, etc.
I have to say, the daily raw reporting doesn't look too out of kilter with anything else at the moment.
So in that spirit:
4 day increase in 7 day rolling average (overlapping data) today gives R = 1.11 7 day increase in 7 day rolling average = 38% giving R = 1.20.
The former is bumpier as overlap at weekend vs overlap in week has some influence, but both that and the latter are trending slowly down in the last few days.
Too soon to say, and too soon to say we're OK with the lockdown measures we have, but my fingers are crossed. I see both a widening (to Teesside & S York's) and a deepening of N lockdown this weekend, and London measures are being trailed already. But I'm hoping next week will be more encouraging and will allow a pause in the extension of new rules.
isam the thing to be wary of though before being certain about that is that the positivity rate has been rising so we're missing more cases now than we were a few weeks ago probably.
There are reasons to be hopeful though, but I would be a lot more confident if the positivity rate starts to go back down.
But the positivity rate would increase if track and trace was actually starting to work. I think you are right that it is a possible indication of increased infection in the community but there may well be confounding factors.
Well Mr Smithson if you long to see your children and their families, the answer is simple. See them.
Non-compliance is the only way this ends.
I am amazed anyone would refuse to see a family member who wanted to see them because Boris told them they shouldn't
Except that Mr Smithson Jr (rcs1000) lives in the US. It's none of any of our business what his visa status is, but it's quite possible that with the US's current immigration restrictions it's such that OGH cannot visit his son in the US, and rcs can't visit his father in the UK and be able to return to his family and business in the US.
On topic I agree with Mike. We met up with my daughter and her partner on my birthday on Sunday for a meal in a pub but right now we cannot visit her house and she can't visit ours. We have an extended household with my mother in law who is frail, alone and needs us. That's all we are allowed.
Right now this is more than slightly irritating but come Christmas it will be unacceptable. I also usually have my brother and his daughter and my sister and her kids for Christmas dinner. We are, as a family, pretty law abiding folk but that will test us to the limits. My brother is terminally ill. I am not sure how much longer he has left. Its a serious hardship for us and especially for him that he cannot come around to us for a nice meal and some company on a regular basis. He found the last lockdown seriously hard.
I don't mean to presume about you and your brother's situation. But if he is terminally ill surely spending his remaining time with his family is more important than a. the very slight risk of covid b. the very slight risk of a fine for breaking an absolutely absurd rule?
My father spent the last weeks of his life alone due to lockdown. If I knew then what I knew now I would have been kicking down the care home door to see him.
I don't want to go into too much detail but he has been "terminal" for some time now. I know sooner or later he is going to fall off a cliff and things will change quickly. I don't know when. Really sad to hear about your father, that is cruel.
Thank you. I would urge you, for your own sake as well as his, ignore this nonsense and just spend the time with him. Otherwise you may have some real regrets.
Wait, this is using reporting date not specimen date.
Whilst I accept that specimen date is better it really shouldn't make a materialdifference to the trend unless there are other changes. Here the other changes seem to be a fairly rapidly increasing number of tests which really ought to be exaggerating the trend, not reducing it.
Disappointed no one took me up on my bet on this.
On the 15th of September we had 3.5 thousand cases, in the 22nd we had 6 thousand.
Well Mr Smithson if you long to see your children and their families, the answer is simple. See them.
Non-compliance is the only way this ends.
I am amazed anyone would refuse to see a family member who wanted to see them because Boris told them they shouldn't
Except that Mr Smithson Jr (rcs1000) lives in the US. It's none of any of our business what his visa status is, but it's quite possible that with the US's current immigration restrictions it's such that OGH cannot visit his son in the US, and rcs can't visit his father in the UK and be able to return to his family and business in the US.
Lovely sentiment and aesthetically impeccable, but surely everybody (on here, anyway) agrees that this disease is highly contagious and very, very dangerous to the over 70s? All this nuffink's gonna stop my mum and dad seeing their grandkids is equivalent to nuffink's gonna stop me getting dead drunk and taking my mum and dad for a fast drive with no seatbelts, is it? It's a shame that that is the case, but it is, as they say, what it is.
Wait, this is using reporting date not specimen date.
Whilst I accept that specimen date is better it really shouldn't make a materialdifference to the trend unless there are other changes. Here the other changes seem to be a fairly rapidly increasing number of tests which really ought to be exaggerating the trend, not reducing it.
Disappointed no one took me up on my bet on this.
On the 15th of September we had 3.5 thousand cases, in the 22nd we had 6 thousand.
The 22nd is the latest day with reliable data.
Positivity is not falling, as yet
if anyone starts making judgements based on the last 3-5 days of data....
Over the next few years/decades we might have a generation who is tarred as the ones who killed some of their parents/grandparents because they couldn't follow some slight rules.
That's going to have a major impact on the mental health of many.
Nice to see @Philip_Thompson whinging that the opposition are not opposing what the government, that he supports, is doing.
Strong opposition leads to better governance. I said that even before the last election.
The country is not best served by having weak opposition. They don't need to oppose what the government is doing but they should be trying to hold it to account and challenging it to bring measures before Parliament.
The country is definitely not best served by the weakest PM in living memory. The best possible opposition to Boris Johnson's government at the moment is Boris Johnson himself.
Over the next few years/decades we might have a generation who is tarred as the ones who killed some of their parents/grandparents because they couldn't follow some slight rules.
That's going to have a major impact on the mental health of many.
The sort of people who do things like go on holiday and try to justify not quarantining, will also find ways to excuse away them passing on the plague to someone who subsequently dies.
A big problem with that chart is that the forecast is for all infections I believe, but the results are only for those that are tested. There are almost certainly thousands of infections being missed every day. A better comparison would be against the ONS survey, which does at least attempt to quantify the total infections in the population.
Over the next few years/decades we might have a generation who is tarred as the ones who killed some of their parents/grandparents because they couldn't follow some slight rules.
That's going to have a major impact on the mental health of many.
The sort of people who do things like go on holiday and try to justify not quarantining, will also find ways to excuse away them passing on the plague to someone who subsequently dies.
Yup, today I cancelled my Cineworld unlimited card after 19 years of membership, as much as I want to go to the cinema, I'd rather not catch the plague and give it to my family.
So no cinema or foreign holidays for me until we have a viable vaccine.
Wait, this is using reporting date not specimen date.
Whilst I accept that specimen date is better it really shouldn't make a materialdifference to the trend unless there are other changes. Here the other changes seem to be a fairly rapidly increasing number of tests which really ought to be exaggerating the trend, not reducing it.
Disappointed no one took me up on my bet on this.
On the 15th of September we had 3.5 thousand cases, in the 22nd we had 6 thousand.
The 22nd is the latest day with reliable data.
Positivity is not falling, as yet
if anyone starts making judgements based on the last 3-5 days of data....
It's funny how people who correctly complained about the use of "day of report" deaths giving a distorted view are now using "day of report" cases.
Lovely sentiment and aesthetically impeccable, but surely everybody (on here, anyway) agrees that this disease is highly contagious and very, very dangerous to the over 70s? All this nuffink's gonna stop my mum and dad seeing their grandkids is equivalent to nuffink's gonna stop me getting dead drunk and taking my mum and dad for a fast drive with no seatbelts, is it? It's a shame that that is the case, but it is, as they say, what it is.
Allow "mum and dad" some agency. They may want to see their "grandkids". They may know the risks and still want to see them.
Some people even want to go out and jump big black hedges while horseback riding for no apparently sensible reason.
Rigby thinks there's no sign of rates of transmission being driven down or stabilised.
WTAF!? There's a 2 week lag on actions having an effect and we're only 3 weeks into the rule of 6 and case numbers appear to be stabilising already. Despite the mass transmissions happening on campuses.
The effect of lockdown is being felt very, very unevenly still.
If you are in, say, the events business, you may have lost everything. If you are over 67 tripled locked up with your pension, the disruption may have been very light indeed.
Unless you've died from Covid, of course.
Or you've died of cancer through being ignored by the NHS. Or heart disease. Or flu. Or another of the myriad other diseases that apparently do not exist any more.
But, hang on, less than two hours ago the idea of black women dying disproportionately in pregnancy and childbirth was an hilarious irrelevance to you when raised at pmqs. Your medical concerns are rather gammoniatric, aren't they?
From what I can see, Between 2015 and 2017 209 women died in childbirth in the UK. Of all races. 209.
The government own estimate of deaths to be caused by lockdown is 75,000.
And that's just deaths, without other problems
So which do you think is the more pressing problem right now Ishmael? eh? nothing to do with race. everything to do with priority.
But not for Roger Irrelevant, who wants to score identity points in a pandemic.
Over the next few years/decades we might have a generation who is tarred as the ones who killed some of their parents/grandparents because they couldn't follow some slight rules.
That's going to have a major impact on the mental health of many.
Haven't a large number (a majority?) been infected and died in care homes? The same care homes where no visitors are allowed?
Boris banging on about Christmas again. We are as far away from Xmas as we are from the end of June. We can't possibly know what will happen by then.
I think it is to soften up the public for cancelling Christmas.
Even in the most optimistic scenario I don't think we are going to see big family gatherings. Farmers who will already have started rearing turkeys must be very worried people.
Rigby thinks there's no sign of rates of transmission being driven down or stabilised.
WTAF!? There's a 2 week lag on actions having an effect and we're only 3 weeks into the rule of 6 and case numbers appear to be stabilising already. Despite the mass transmissions happening on campuses.
I think the most you can conclude so far is that there are tentative indications that the rate of increase in cases may be slowing. It's really too early to say though.
Boris banging on about Christmas again. We are as far away from Xmas as we are from the end of June. We can't possibly know what will happen by then.
I think it is to soften up the public for cancelling Christmas.
Even in the most optimistic scenario I don't think we are going to see big family gatherings. Farmers who will already have started rearing turkeys must be very worried people.
You'd be surprised by just how many think they will have a proper family Christmas if they don't have any symptoms.
Boris banging on about Christmas again. We are as far away from Xmas as we are from the end of June. We can't possibly know what will happen by then.
I think it is to soften up the public for cancelling Christmas.
If it's always December 23rd then 1st January 2021 doesn't arrive and with it No Deal - the transition period and continue for ever provided the EU agree.
Rigby thinks there's no sign of rates of transmission being driven down or stabilised.
WTAF!? There's a 2 week lag on actions having an effect and we're only 3 weeks into the rule of 6 and case numbers appear to be stabilising already. Despite the mass transmissions happening on campuses.
I think the most you can conclude so far is that there are tentative indications that the rate of increase in cases may be slowing. It's really too early to say though.
Indications but too early to say for certain is completely different to saying there are no signs of it at all.
Boris banging on about Christmas again. We are as far away from Xmas as we are from the end of June. We can't possibly know what will happen by then.
I think it is to soften up the public for cancelling Christmas.
Even in the most optimistic scenario I don't think we are going to see big family gatherings. Farmers who will already have started rearing turkeys must be very worried people.
You'd be surprised by just how many think they will have a proper family Christmas if they don't have any symptoms.
Who’s going to stop them? The police are not going to be raiding people’s homes on Christmas Day.
It might be the future, but this still seems strange
Online grocer Ocado has overtaken Tesco in terms of stock market value as investors continue to bet on the firm.
Ocado is now valued at £21.7bn, more than Tesco's £21.1bn, despite having only a fraction of the UK grocery market share.
According to analyst firm Kantar, Ocado has only 1.7% of the UK grocery market, compared with Tesco's 26.8% share - which far outstrips its nearest competitors, Sainsbury's and Asda
Wait, this is using reporting date not specimen date.
Whilst I accept that specimen date is better it really shouldn't make a materialdifference to the trend unless there are other changes. Here the other changes seem to be a fairly rapidly increasing number of tests which really ought to be exaggerating the trend, not reducing it.
Disappointed no one took me up on my bet on this.
On the 15th of September we had 3.5 thousand cases, in the 22nd we had 6 thousand.
The 22nd is the latest day with reliable data.
Positivity is not falling, as yet
if anyone starts making judgements based on the last 3-5 days of data....
It's funny how people who correctly complained about the use of "day of report" deaths giving a distorted view are now using "day of report" cases.
Who are these people? Time to let lose the Kimono'd Lawyers of The Apocalypse methinks......
Boris banging on about Christmas again. We are as far away from Xmas as we are from the end of June. We can't possibly know what will happen by then.
I think it is to soften up the public for cancelling Christmas.
Even in the most optimistic scenario I don't think we are going to see big family gatherings. Farmers who will already have started rearing turkeys must be very worried people.
You'd be surprised by just how many think they will have a proper family Christmas if they don't have any symptoms.
Who’s going to stop them? The police are not going to be raiding people’s homes on Christmas Day.
Lovely sentiment and aesthetically impeccable, but surely everybody (on here, anyway) agrees that this disease is highly contagious and very, very dangerous to the over 70s? All this nuffink's gonna stop my mum and dad seeing their grandkids is equivalent to nuffink's gonna stop me getting dead drunk and taking my mum and dad for a fast drive with no seatbelts, is it? It's a shame that that is the case, but it is, as they say, what it is.
Allow "mum and dad" some agency. They may want to see their "grandkids". They may know the risks and still want to see them.
Some people even want to go out and jump big black hedges while horseback riding for no apparently sensible reason.
People can be like that, you know.
I quite agree (and in both those contexts I have no patience with the "putting an unfair strain on the NHS" nonsense). But the penalty for seeing the grandkids isn't being fined by Boris, it's dying horribly four weeks later and leaving others to feel that they may have finished you off by giving you the virus - not a comfortable thought even if they know that you voluntarily accepted the risk. Risk appetite will be lower than you think.
Boris banging on about Christmas again. We are as far away from Xmas as we are from the end of June. We can't possibly know what will happen by then.
I think it is to soften up the public for cancelling Christmas.
The government wouldn't dare. There would be rule-breaking en masse and it would all fall apart. They will be mindful of only mandating what they think people will tolerate.
On topic I agree with Mike. We met up with my daughter and her partner on my birthday on Sunday for a meal in a pub but right now we cannot visit her house and she can't visit ours. We have an extended household with my mother in law who is frail, alone and needs us. That's all we are allowed.
Right now this is more than slightly irritating but come Christmas it will be unacceptable. I also usually have my brother and his daughter and my sister and her kids for Christmas dinner. We are, as a family, pretty law abiding folk but that will test us to the limits. My brother is terminally ill. I am not sure how much longer he has left. Its a serious hardship for us and especially for him that he cannot come around to us for a nice meal and some company on a regular basis. He found the last lockdown seriously hard.
I don't mean to presume about you and your brother's situation. But if he is terminally ill surely spending his remaining time with his family is more important than a. the very slight risk of covid b. the very slight risk of a fine for breaking an absolutely absurd rule?
My father spent the last weeks of his life alone due to lockdown. If I knew then what I knew now I would have been kicking down the care home door to see him.
I don't want to go into too much detail but he has been "terminal" for some time now. I know sooner or later he is going to fall off a cliff and things will change quickly. I don't know when. Really sad to hear about your father, that is cruel.
It is very hard, David, and everyone must do what they think best within the bounds of common sense (there was a woman from SAGE on R4 who was very sensible about that). I don't think there are any right answers.
Comments
Disappointed no one took me up on my bet on this.
It is terrible that 80-something grandparents can't see their grandchildren.
Lockdown: 80-something grandparents can't see their grandchildren.
Risk segmentation: 80-something grandparents can't see their grandchildren.
Either way, 80-something grandparents can't see their grandchildren.
I have to say, the daily raw reporting doesn't look too out of kilter with anything else at the moment.
So in that spirit:
4 day increase in 7 day rolling average (overlapping data) today gives R = 1.11
7 day increase in 7 day rolling average = 38% giving R = 1.20.
The former is bumpier as overlap at weekend vs overlap in week has some influence, but both that and the latter are trending slowly down in the last few days.
Too soon to say, and too soon to say we're OK with the lockdown measures we have, but my fingers are crossed. I see both a widening (to Teesside & S York's) and a deepening of N lockdown this weekend, and London measures are being trailed already. But I'm hoping next week will be more encouraging and will allow a pause in the extension of new rules.
The 22nd is the latest day with reliable data.
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1311331810157178880?s=20
Lovely sentiment and aesthetically impeccable, but surely everybody (on here, anyway) agrees that this disease is highly contagious and very, very dangerous to the over 70s? All this nuffink's gonna stop my mum and dad seeing their grandkids is equivalent to nuffink's gonna stop me getting dead drunk and taking my mum and dad for a fast drive with no seatbelts, is it? It's a shame that that is the case, but it is, as they say, what it is.
At least 200 students in 'blatant breach' of lockdown with late-night rave at Coventry University
Around 200 students appeared to ignore social distancing measures as they danced close together and sang along to music.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-at-least-200-students-in-blatant-breach-of-lockdown-with-late-night-rave-at-coventry-university-12085726
I maintain I must be the only person who went to university in the last fifty years solely to get a top degree.
if anyone starts making judgements based on the last 3-5 days of data....
However, the present regulations are unsustainable
At present visitors to North Wales can pass through the four counties to visit Snowdon but locals nearby cannot
This weekend will be a nightmare for Drakeford if those living in England turn up at Snowdon
I expect the police will be very busy this weekend
Over the next few years/decades we might have a generation who is tarred as the ones who killed some of their parents/grandparents because they couldn't follow some slight rules.
That's going to have a major impact on the mental health of many.
We are as far away from Xmas as we are from the end of June.
We can't possibly know what will happen by then.
So no cinema or foreign holidays for me until we have a viable vaccine.
That is impressive
Some people even want to go out and jump big black hedges while horseback riding for no apparently sensible reason.
People can be like that, you know.
WTAF!? There's a 2 week lag on actions having an effect and we're only 3 weeks into the rule of 6 and case numbers appear to be stabilising already. Despite the mass transmissions happening on campuses.
The government own estimate of deaths to be caused by lockdown is 75,000.
And that's just deaths, without other problems
So which do you think is the more pressing problem right now Ishmael? eh? nothing to do with race. everything to do with priority.
But not for Roger Irrelevant, who wants to score identity points in a pandemic.
Where on earth are the other 296 mps
The tory score is gonna shoot up after that.
https://twitter.com/Govgg/status/1311337523654819840?s=20
After all, if they did that they wouldn't be guaranteed the opportunity to condemn whatever happens.
Do you think I could get odds on the result of the Battle of Waterloo?
Online grocer Ocado has overtaken Tesco in terms of stock market value as investors continue to bet on the firm.
Ocado is now valued at £21.7bn, more than Tesco's £21.1bn, despite having only a fraction of the UK grocery market share.
According to analyst firm Kantar, Ocado has only 1.7% of the UK grocery market, compared with Tesco's 26.8% share - which far outstrips its nearest competitors, Sainsbury's and Asda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54352540
Will you give him another six months playing with the trainset then?
Labour........er...........
I don't think there are any right answers.
I really hope it works out for you.