At last for the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind – politicalbetting.com
At last for the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind – politicalbetting.com
It was going to come sometime that with the PM’s awful ratings collapse we would at some stage see his party fall behind in the voting intention polling. Well that has happened tonight from Opinium. These are the numbers for the main two parties with changes on a fortnight ago.
Comments
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First...as in Boris out the door in 2021.2
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Rejoice. The first step has been taken.1
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The worse Boris does the less chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would win, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.4
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Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide
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LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/13099328481792286761 -
But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
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I think you missed out "next"!MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
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Sunak's doing his best to forge one.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
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Bozo has turned out to be both as good a campaigner as the Tories hoped and as risible a PM as the Tories feared.MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the less chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
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We'll see, I'm not sure the son-in-law of a billionaire would be but then no one thought they would break the tradition of a lifetime and vote Tory in the first place.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
To my mind Rishi has a good shot of actually winning in 2024 because he will hold together a coalition of voters without motivating people to vote against him as Boris would.1 -
If the wall is full of xenophobes, as has been suggested, it might depend greatly on who the respective leaders are at the next GE. An opportunity for Nigel in Bolsover perhaps.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
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FPT
Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...0 -
On the National Trust issue, if there’s bad history in a report or publication then that should certainly to be challenged.
However that is very different to crying “culture war” and cancelling memberships because you’ve decided that “BLM has taken over the organization” or other such nonsense. It’s hysterical.3 -
So it appears that a knock on effect of this 10pm closing rule for restaurants, is that waiting times for take away deliveries have increased significantly.
Based on one night's anecdotal experience.0 -
In the UK as a whole. Which is quite something.Andy_JS said:LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/13099328481792286760 -
Although he comes across as a nasty little weasel, Gove is streets ahead of Johnson.Scott_xP said:FPT
Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...1 -
Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.2 -
Does anyone know what % of the Scottish vote that equates to?Carnyx said:
In the UK as a whole. Which is quite something.Andy_JS said:LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/13099328481792286760 -
This Covid ain't good for the government.
The public supports the new measures.
The opposition to them is on the government's own benches.
A poor combination.
Particularly if you add in some unsavoury conspiracy types out on the streets to the mix.0 -
2010-2015 polls were wrongPhilip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.0 -
Esther McVeyCorrectHorseBattery said:
But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
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While this site debates the polling data - this is what is going on in this so called democracy:
Met Police you are an absolute disgrace
— Lucie (@donewith202O) September 26, 2020
And thank goodness for the the REAL media
Because an image from this should be the front cover of every single newspaper tomorrow.
But we know it won't be pic.twitter.com/mnhcFIzjvP0 -
I’m afraid in the privacy of the ballot box many people won’t vote for a none white. You see this frequently in multi seat local elections, the Asian surname is the lowest placed of the party slate.Mexicanpete said:
If the wall is full of xenophobes, as has been suggested, it might depend greatly on who the respective leaders are at the next GE. An opportunity for Nigel in Bolsover perhaps.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
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Not last week he didn't.Freggles said:
Sunak's doing his best to forge one.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
Digging up and composting the magic money tree might not work too well for him in self-employed-white-van-man-land when economic activity stops.1 -
LOL! The only surprise is that it's taken this long.
If Labour can't get an opinion poll lead in light of the current disaster they never can. 2024 is there for Labour's taking.2 -
Around 60%. Some excitable types have been extrapolating a Westminster clean sweep from this.Gallowgate said:
Does anyone know what % of the Scottish vote that equates to?Carnyx said:
In the UK as a whole. Which is quite something.Andy_JS said:LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/13099328481792286760 -
Sadly I fear this is true.nichomar said:
I’m afraid in the privacy of the ballot box many people won’t vote for a none white. You see this frequently in multi seat local elections, the Asian surname is the lowest placed of the party slate.Mexicanpete said:
If the wall is full of xenophobes, as has been suggested, it might depend greatly on who the respective leaders are at the next GE. An opportunity for Nigel in Bolsover perhaps.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
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I saw a report that the SNP were on 60% in Scotland only polling, a day or two ago. But I was more concerned with students and the bug for family reasons, so didn't look into it. Maybe someone knows more?Gallowgate said:
Does anyone know what % of the Scottish vote that equates to?Carnyx said:
In the UK as a whole. Which is quite something.Andy_JS said:LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/13099328481792286760 -
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As long as you still have fuckwittery on the back benches the view of the party will trail the view of Starmer among the public.CorrectHorseBattery said:2 -
The catch is that the price of Gove being PM would be ditching Cummings. I can't see him getting past the MPs otherwise.Foxy said:
Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.Scott_xP said:FPT
Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...
Now, will Michael Gove ditch his favoured adviser and counsellor, just to get his bloodless hands on the levers of power?
Oh, of course he will.1 -
I am listening to Julian Assange’s fiancée on TV.
Does anyone think she actually believes the rubbish she’s spouting, or is she just as fluent a liar as he is?0 -
Being Green on him is a bet, not a desire. He will be crap and lead the Tories into the wilderness for a decade.Theuniondivvie said:
The irony is that by "Getting Brexit Done", the Tories have detoxified moderate Labour.3 -
I’m not green. Chalk white with a distinct hint of yellow around the trouser area.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
And that goes double for the Red Wall.nichomar said:
I’m afraid in the privacy of the ballot box many people won’t vote for a none white. You see this frequently in multi seat local elections, the Asian surname is the lowest placed of the party slate.Mexicanpete said:
If the wall is full of xenophobes, as has been suggested, it might depend greatly on who the respective leaders are at the next GE. An opportunity for Nigel in Bolsover perhaps.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?MaxPB said:The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
Wherever that is.1 -
1
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I guess Blair was right, tacking towards the centre is the way to electoral success.
I was wrong - I am happy to admit that1 -
What colour means "not interested"?ydoethur said:
I’m not green. Chalk white with a distinct hint of yellow around the trouser area.Theuniondivvie said:
And what colour would we associate with Trump? Yellow with flecks of blood?0 -
Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.10
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The choice between Johnson and Corbyn obliged me to tear up my ballot paper.Toms said:
What colour means "not interested"?ydoethur said:
I’m not green. Chalk white with a distinct hint of yellow around the trouser area.Theuniondivvie said:
And what colour would we associate with Trump? Yellow with flecks of blood?
A choice between Gove and Corbyn would have seen me vote for Corbyn.1 -
Just what 2020 needed. A brain eating microbe in tap water.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/26/texas-tap-water-tainted-brain-eating-microbe1 -
The UK must have had that in 2016dixiedean said:Just what 2020 needed. A brain eating microbe in tap water.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/26/texas-tap-water-tainted-brain-eating-microbe2 -
Sounds great - happy birthday!!nichomar said:Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.
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Happy Birthday @nichomar0
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Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.4 -
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Many thank 67 years but not ready for old age thinking just yet I have an inbuilt need to challenge everything before deciding what I think is right, it’s a pain to many but I can’t take anything at face value. Sad?Benpointer said:
Sounds great - happy birthday!!nichomar said:Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.
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Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.3 -
CheesCorrectHorseBattery said:Happy Birthday @nichomar
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Should benefit Trump.dixiedean said:Just what 2020 needed. A brain eating microbe in tap water.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/26/texas-tap-water-tainted-brain-eating-microbe0 -
To throw away a 26% lead is astonishing. Or is that the electorate just really hated Corbyn rather than loving Johnson?
Labour's biggest mistake - and I didn't call for it until too late so I hold my hands up - was keeping Corbyn on for too long.
If he'd been deposed in 2018 or early 2019, we'd be in Government now0 -
Looks from that post like you had a good evening! ;-)nichomar said:
Many thank 67 years but not ready for old age thinking just yet I have an inbuilt need to challenge everything before deciding what I think is right, it’s a pain to many but I can’t take anything at face value. Sad?Benpointer said:
Sounds great - happy birthday!!nichomar said:Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.
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😀Benpointer said:
Looks from that post like you had a good evening! ;-)nichomar said:
Many thank 67 years but not ready for old age thinking just yet I have an inbuilt need to challenge everything before deciding what I think is right, it’s a pain to many but I can’t take anything at face value. Sad?Benpointer said:
Sounds great - happy birthday!!nichomar said:Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.
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Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.0 -
Or indeed, if you’d never elected the useless twat in the first place...CorrectHorseBattery said:To throw away a 26% lead is astonishing. Or is that the electorate just really hated Corbyn rather than loving Johnson?
Labour's biggest mistake - and I didn't call for it until too late so I hold my hands up - was keeping Corbyn on for too long.
If he'd been deposed in 2018 or early 2019, we'd be in Government now3 -
I didn't vote for him to be leader, that's my only saving grace. I did get behind him as leader - but I accept we got it wrong.ydoethur said:
Or indeed, if you’d never elected the useless twat in the first place...CorrectHorseBattery said:To throw away a 26% lead is astonishing. Or is that the electorate just really hated Corbyn rather than loving Johnson?
Labour's biggest mistake - and I didn't call for it until too late so I hold my hands up - was keeping Corbyn on for too long.
If he'd been deposed in 2018 or early 2019, we'd be in Government now0 -
Significant moment of course, but it'll be hilarious to see its significance massively overhyped.
To be clear, by both sides as well0 -
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But is this still not an interesting point?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.
Labour has chosen seemingly pretty poor leaders since Blair left - now we've chosen a non-terrible one we're doing better.
Perhaps this idea Labour would languish forever was wildly mis-stated and the public do want to vote for us.0 -
Cudos to SKS.
Its one poll at the moment
However both Covid and the Economy have much worse to come.
Labour have a real chance.
Might be a terrible time to be in Govt 2024 no money and the country in the Tory shitter mind.1 -
I have for a few weeks predicted Boris would be out in the first 6 months of 2021Northern_Al said:Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.
He just is not cutting it and Cummings, Williamson and his IMB have all been a disaster
He has lost his authority and does not look well
Time to go and spend it with Carrie and his little one and write columns for newspapers3 -
And the early pandemic polling which was never going to be representative of the true position. I think Labour have gone from about 12 points behind to 3 points ahead, which is still pretty good.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.3 -
And an electable leader being revealed to be an utterly implausible PM.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.3 -
https://twitter.com/rorysalad/status/1309935683746881538
https://twitter.com/rorysalad/status/1309936166184026113
Also Red Wall voters are at least more inclined to vote Labour than others, this is good news for Keir0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have for a few weeks predicted Boris would be out in the first 6 months of 2021Northern_Al said:Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.
He just is not cutting it and Cummings, Williamson and his IMB have all been a disaster
He has lost his authority and does not look well
Time to go and spend it with Carrie and his little one and write columns for newspapers
There's a people's revolt coming
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/1339801/boris-johnson-coronavirus-restrictions-latest0 -
Does the same apply to the Chair of the National Institute for Health Protection?Scott_xP said:4 -
The Guardian and friends are going to be packed with stories about the two for weeks. It will make the bucket of shit tipped over Toby No-Mates look like nothing.Scott_xP said:0 -
Yes, Labour are doing all the right things but a GE is years away and goodness knows how things will look by then.MaxPB said:
And the early pandemic polling which was never going to be representative of the true position. I think Labour have gone from about 12 points behind to 3 points ahead, which is still pretty good.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.2 -
Agree with this. Now Labour are credible- or working toward it - Boris is fast becoming unstuckrottenborough said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have for a few weeks predicted Boris would be out in the first 6 months of 2021Northern_Al said:Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.
He just is not cutting it and Cummings, Williamson and his IMB have all been a disaster
He has lost his authority and does not look well
Time to go and spend it with Carrie and his little one and write columns for newspapers
There's a people's revolt coming
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/1339801/boris-johnson-coronavirus-restrictions-latest2 -
Which is fair enough - free speech still allowed in this country, I believe?FrancisUrquhart said:
The Guardian and friends are going to be packed with stories about the two for weeks. It will make the bucket of shit tipped over Toby No-Mates look like nothing.Scott_xP said:2 -
Oh, you are a wag!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Time to go and spend it with Carrie and his little one...Northern_Al said:Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.1 -
I agree - that 26 point lead was never substantive. It was a product of a) a good government start to the pandemic in mid to late March, and more importantly b) masses of sympathy for BJ when he got seriously ill with the virus.MaxPB said:
And the early pandemic polling which was never going to be representative of the true position. I think Labour have gone from about 12 points behind to 3 points ahead, which is still pretty good.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.1 -
It is excruciatingly naive to think that Labour's problems since Blair have been down exclusively to poor leadership.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But is this still not an interesting point?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.
Labour has chosen seemingly pretty poor leaders since Blair left - now we've chosen a non-terrible one we're doing better.
Perhaps this idea Labour would languish forever was wildly mis-stated and the public do want to vote for us.3 -
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Tricky.CorrectHorseBattery said:To throw away a 26% lead is astonishing. Or is that the electorate just really hated Corbyn rather than loving Johnson?
Labour's biggest mistake - and I didn't call for it until too late so I hold my hands up - was keeping Corbyn on for too long.
If he'd been deposed in 2018 or early 2019, we'd be in Government now
It's definitely true that surprisingly popular Magic Grandpa Jez of 2017 had been replaced by snarly unpleasant racist undertones Jez of 2019.
But the other thing is that the idealised Boris was an incredibly attractive proposition. It would be lovely to think that the UK's problems could be solved by just applying a little bit of Oomph, Pizzazz and Belief. And sacking boring lawyery types getting in the way. And Boris was just the chap to provide said Oomph, Pizzazz and Belief. It's not surprising that the Great British Public democratically went for it.
Unfortunately for all of us, the UK's problems can't be solved by just applying a little bit of Oomph, Pizzazz and Belief. And real Boris is very different, and much worse, than idealised Boris.4 -
And. In my case, a desperate hope they would succeed under the most difficult circumstances.Northern_Al said:
I agree - that 26 point lead was never substantive. It was a product of a) a good government start to the pandemic in mid to late March, and more importantly b) masses of sympathy for BJ when he got seriously ill with the virus.MaxPB said:
And the early pandemic polling which was never going to be representative of the true position. I think Labour have gone from about 12 points behind to 3 points ahead, which is still pretty good.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.
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I do think leadership plays a large role, not the only role but a large one.Peter_the_Punter said:
It is excruciatingly naive to think that Labour's problems since Blair have been down exclusively to poor leadership.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But is this still not an interesting point?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.
Labour has chosen seemingly pretty poor leaders since Blair left - now we've chosen a non-terrible one we're doing better.
Perhaps this idea Labour would languish forever was wildly mis-stated and the public do want to vote for us.
I maintain our massive loss in 2019 was down to Corbyn overwhelmingly.0 -
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Moore and Dacre have Cummings all over them, another distraction story0
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Yeah, that and Brexit fatigue, but both are gone now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I do think leadership plays a large role, not the only role but a large one.Peter_the_Punter said:
It is excruciatingly naive to think that Labour's problems since Blair have been down exclusively to poor leadership.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But is this still not an interesting point?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.OllyT said:
Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.Philip_Thompson said:Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.
There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.
Labour has chosen seemingly pretty poor leaders since Blair left - now we've chosen a non-terrible one we're doing better.
Perhaps this idea Labour would languish forever was wildly mis-stated and the public do want to vote for us.
I maintain our massive loss in 2019 was down to Corbyn overwhelmingly.1 -
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Opinium has found Starmer has gained back both leave and remain voters (latter almost entirely).
They have found Leave voters are less enthused to vote at the moment, will we see this change or now that Brexit has been delivered and Labour has accepted it, will they bother to turn out to vote? Is there anything to save now0 -
See, that's very true. But, Starmer is still quite strongly on the left flank economically. What he's realised is that the British public have tacked quite strongly to the left on economic issues since 2008, but have moved away from liberalism a bit. Not to the extent that the madder Tories have done, but they're mostly fed up of culture wars and disliked Corbyn (and his shadow cabinet) based on those issues. Steal the cloak of patriotism, look competent and espouse social democratic economic policy and you might end up with something that looks and sounds like Clem Atlee. If you squint.CorrectHorseBattery said:I guess Blair was right, tacking towards the centre is the way to electoral success.
I was wrong - I am happy to admit that4 -
There’s a mental image I could have done without.CorrectHorseBattery said:Moore and Dacre have Cummings all over them, another distraction story
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Gove can't be PM, so he will need to elevate someone else.Foxy said:
Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.Scott_xP said:FPT
Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...1 -
You always make me laugh mate, a happy sign in these dark timesydoethur said:
There’s a mental image I could have done without.CorrectHorseBattery said:Moore and Dacre have Cummings all over them, another distraction story
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I'm not entirely sure how this offers a meaningfully different choice from the current Tories, aside from being a convenient vehicle for the usual mad outrage mongers.Scott_xP said:1 -
Approval/disapproval ratings of how Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party.
Overall: 40% approve, 21% disapprove. Net +19.
2019 Conservative voters:29% approve, 31% disapprove. Net -2.
Current Labour voters: 73% approve, 8% disapprove. Net +65.
Current Executive members of my local Constituency Labour Party (all elected on a Momentum slate):
0% approve, 100% disapprove (strongly).
Source for the first three. Opinium Table V006(2).1 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54308329
Having made little or no attempt at serious enforcement of self isolation and quarantine for the country at large, where many are ignoring or bending the rules whilst in far more congenial living conditions, students are being disgracefully scapegoated for circumstances largely beyond their control (indeed having been actively encouraged to put themselves in this position), imprisoned and threatened with fines, disciplinary action or worst, many without any warning or knowledge of the basis for their predicament.
It's disgraceful.4 -
We had some discussion around this in an earlier thread. I think they should just send the poor buggers home after two weeks in isolation. Full distance learning until next year. Don't force them to spend hundreds of points to stay in a prison when they could at least have home comforts to get them through this. The few who might want to stay for whatever reason should be able to be put up in much less crowded conditions.alex_ said:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54308329
Having made little or no attempt at serious enforcement of self isolation and quarantine for the country at large, where many are ignoring or bending the rules whilst in far more congenial living conditions, students are being disgracefully scapegoated for circumstances largely beyond their control (indeed having been actively encouraged to put themselves in this position), imprisoned and threatened with fines, disciplinary action or worst, many without any warning or knowledge of the basis for their predicament.
It's disgraceful.1
