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At last for the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited September 2020 in General
imageAt last for the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind – politicalbetting.com

It was going to come sometime that with the PM’s awful ratings collapse we would at some stage see his party fall behind in the voting intention polling. Well that has happened tonight from Opinium. These are the numbers for the main two parties with changes on a fortnight ago.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,436
    First...as in Boris out the door in 2021.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Rejoice. The first step has been taken.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    edited September 2020
    The worse Boris does the less chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would win, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide :lol:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,154
    edited September 2020
    LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1309932848179228676
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    I think you missed out "next"!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?
    Sunak's doing his best to forge one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the less chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    Bozo has turned out to be both as good a campaigner as the Tories hoped and as risible a PM as the Tories feared.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?
    We'll see, I'm not sure the son-in-law of a billionaire would be but then no one thought they would break the tradition of a lifetime and vote Tory in the first place.

    To my mind Rishi has a good shot of actually winning in 2024 because he will hold together a coalition of voters without motivating people to vote against him as Boris would.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?
    If the wall is full of xenophobes, as has been suggested, it might depend greatly on who the respective leaders are at the next GE. An opportunity for Nigel in Bolsover perhaps.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,425
    On the National Trust issue, if there’s bad history in a report or publication then that should certainly to be challenged.

    However that is very different to crying “culture war” and cancelling memberships because you’ve decided that “BLM has taken over the organization” or other such nonsense. It’s hysterical.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    So it appears that a knock on effect of this 10pm closing rule for restaurants, is that waiting times for take away deliveries have increased significantly.

    Based on one night's anecdotal experience.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Andy_JS said:

    LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1309932848179228676

    In the UK as a whole. Which is quite something.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Although he comes across as a nasty little weasel, Gove is streets ahead of Johnson.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,425
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1309932848179228676

    In the UK as a whole. Which is quite something.
    Does anyone know what % of the Scottish vote that equates to?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,341
    This Covid ain't good for the government.
    The public supports the new measures.
    The opposition to them is on the government's own benches.
    A poor combination.
    Particularly if you add in some unsavoury conspiracy types out on the streets to the mix.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    2010-2015 polls were wrong
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1309938037254623232
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?
    Esther McVey
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    edited September 2020
    While this site debates the polling data - this is what is going on in this so called democracy:

    Met Police you are an absolute disgrace

    And thank goodness for the the REAL media

    Because an image from this should be the front cover of every single newspaper tomorrow.

    But we know it won't be pic.twitter.com/mnhcFIzjvP

    — Lucie (@donewith202O) September 26, 2020
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1309940553879040006
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Mexicanpete said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?
    If the wall is full of xenophobes, as has been suggested, it might depend greatly on who the respective leaders are at the next GE. An opportunity for Nigel in Bolsover perhaps.
    I’m afraid in the privacy of the ballot box many people won’t vote for a none white. You see this frequently in multi seat local elections, the Asian surname is the lowest placed of the party slate.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Freggles said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?
    Sunak's doing his best to forge one.
    Not last week he didn't.

    Digging up and composting the magic money tree might not work too well for him in self-employed-white-van-man-land when economic activity stops.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,152
    edited September 2020
    LOL! The only surprise is that it's taken this long.

    If Labour can't get an opinion poll lead in light of the current disaster they never can. 2024 is there for Labour's taking.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Gallowgate said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1309932848179228676

    In the UK as a whole. Which is quite something.
    Does anyone know what % of the Scottish vote that equates to?
    Around 60%. Some excitable types have been extrapolating a Westminster clean sweep from this.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,341
    nichomar said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?
    If the wall is full of xenophobes, as has been suggested, it might depend greatly on who the respective leaders are at the next GE. An opportunity for Nigel in Bolsover perhaps.
    I’m afraid in the privacy of the ballot box many people won’t vote for a none white. You see this frequently in multi seat local elections, the Asian surname is the lowest placed of the party slate.
    Sadly I fear this is true.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Gallowgate said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    LDs behind the SNP for the first time I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1309932848179228676

    In the UK as a whole. Which is quite something.
    Does anyone know what % of the Scottish vote that equates to?
    I saw a report that the SNP were on 60% in Scotland only polling, a day or two ago. But I was more concerned with students and the bug for family reasons, so didn't look into it. Maybe someone knows more?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
    I am green thinking of him as next PM (not with envy).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1309938037254623232

    As long as you still have fuckwittery on the back benches the view of the party will trail the view of Starmer among the public.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
    The catch is that the price of Gove being PM would be ditching Cummings. I can't see him getting past the MPs otherwise.
    Now, will Michael Gove ditch his favoured adviser and counsellor, just to get his bloodless hands on the levers of power?
    Oh, of course he will.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    I am listening to Julian Assange’s fiancée on TV.

    Does anyone think she actually believes the rubbish she’s spouting, or is she just as fluent a liar as he is?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
    I am green thinking of him as next PM (not with envy).
    Being Green on him is a bet, not a desire. He will be crap and lead the Tories into the wilderness for a decade.

    The irony is that by "Getting Brexit Done", the Tories have detoxified moderate Labour.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
    MPs and members loathe him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
    I am green thinking of him as next PM (not with envy).
    I’m not green. Chalk white with a distinct hint of yellow around the trouser area.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,341
    nichomar said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worse Boris does the lest chance Starmer has of becoming PM, Tory MPs will only back Boris while he looks like a winner. He has no ideological backers because he has no ideology. There are no natural allies who will stick up for him. He became leader because he said he would won, he has done that. When he can't his USP goes away and so does he.

    But does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall?
    If the wall is full of xenophobes, as has been suggested, it might depend greatly on who the respective leaders are at the next GE. An opportunity for Nigel in Bolsover perhaps.
    I’m afraid in the privacy of the ballot box many people won’t vote for a none white. You see this frequently in multi seat local elections, the Asian surname is the lowest placed of the party slate.
    And that goes double for the Red Wall.
    Wherever that is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
    MPs and members loathe him.
    Gove came third in the 2019 leadership contest.

  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I guess Blair was right, tacking towards the centre is the way to electoral success.

    I was wrong - I am happy to admit that
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
    I am green thinking of him as next PM (not with envy).
    I’m not green. Chalk white with a distinct hint of yellow around the trouser area.
    What colour means "not interested"?
    And what colour would we associate with Trump? Yellow with flecks of blood?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1309944328840794112
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Toms said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
    I am green thinking of him as next PM (not with envy).
    I’m not green. Chalk white with a distinct hint of yellow around the trouser area.
    What colour means "not interested"?
    And what colour would we associate with Trump? Yellow with flecks of blood?
    The choice between Johnson and Corbyn obliged me to tear up my ballot paper.

    A choice between Gove and Corbyn would have seen me vote for Corbyn.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,341
    Just what 2020 needed. A brain eating microbe in tap water.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/26/texas-tap-water-tainted-brain-eating-microbe
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    dixiedean said:

    Just what 2020 needed. A brain eating microbe in tap water.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/26/texas-tap-water-tainted-brain-eating-microbe

    The UK must have had that in 2016
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    nichomar said:

    Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.

    Sounds great - happy birthday!!
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Happy Birthday @nichomar
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
    However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
    So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1309946952633679872
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Benpointer said:

    nichomar said:

    Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.

    Sounds great - happy birthday!!
    Many thank 67 years but not ready for old age thinking just yet I have an inbuilt need to challenge everything before deciding what I think is right, it’s a pain to many but I can’t take anything at face value. Sad?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Happy Birthday @nichomar

    Chees
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    dixiedean said:

    Just what 2020 needed. A brain eating microbe in tap water.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/26/texas-tap-water-tainted-brain-eating-microbe

    Should benefit Trump.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited September 2020
    To throw away a 26% lead is astonishing. Or is that the electorate just really hated Corbyn rather than loving Johnson?

    Labour's biggest mistake - and I didn't call for it until too late so I hold my hands up - was keeping Corbyn on for too long.

    If he'd been deposed in 2018 or early 2019, we'd be in Government now
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    nichomar said:

    Benpointer said:

    nichomar said:

    Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.

    Sounds great - happy birthday!!
    Many thank 67 years but not ready for old age thinking just yet I have an inbuilt need to challenge everything before deciding what I think is right, it’s a pain to many but I can’t take anything at face value. Sad?
    Looks from that post like you had a good evening! ;-)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Benpointer said:

    nichomar said:

    Benpointer said:

    nichomar said:

    Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.

    Sounds great - happy birthday!!
    Many thank 67 years but not ready for old age thinking just yet I have an inbuilt need to challenge everything before deciding what I think is right, it’s a pain to many but I can’t take anything at face value. Sad?
    Looks from that post like you had a good evening! ;-)
    😀
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    To throw away a 26% lead is astonishing. Or is that the electorate just really hated Corbyn rather than loving Johnson?

    Labour's biggest mistake - and I didn't call for it until too late so I hold my hands up - was keeping Corbyn on for too long.

    If he'd been deposed in 2018 or early 2019, we'd be in Government now

    Or indeed, if you’d never elected the useless twat in the first place...
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    ydoethur said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    To throw away a 26% lead is astonishing. Or is that the electorate just really hated Corbyn rather than loving Johnson?

    Labour's biggest mistake - and I didn't call for it until too late so I hold my hands up - was keeping Corbyn on for too long.

    If he'd been deposed in 2018 or early 2019, we'd be in Government now

    Or indeed, if you’d never elected the useless twat in the first place...
    I didn't vote for him to be leader, that's my only saving grace. I did get behind him as leader - but I accept we got it wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,847
    edited September 2020
    Significant moment of course, but it'll be hilarious to see its significance massively overhyped.

    To be clear, by both sides as well
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    nichomar said:

    Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.

    Many happy returns, nichomar.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1309948804284780547
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
    But is this still not an interesting point?

    Labour has chosen seemingly pretty poor leaders since Blair left - now we've chosen a non-terrible one we're doing better.

    Perhaps this idea Labour would languish forever was wildly mis-stated and the public do want to vote for us.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Cudos to SKS.

    Its one poll at the moment

    However both Covid and the Economy have much worse to come.

    Labour have a real chance.

    Might be a terrible time to be in Govt 2024 no money and the country in the Tory shitter mind.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited September 2020
    Northern_Al said:

    Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
    However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
    So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.

    I have for a few weeks predicted Boris would be out in the first 6 months of 2021

    He just is not cutting it and Cummings, Williamson and his IMB have all been a disaster

    He has lost his authority and does not look well

    Time to go and spend it with Carrie and his little one and write columns for newspapers
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
    And the early pandemic polling which was never going to be representative of the true position. I think Labour have gone from about 12 points behind to 3 points ahead, which is still pretty good.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,341
    edited September 2020
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
    And an electable leader being revealed to be an utterly implausible PM.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Nigelb said:

    nichomar said:

    Lovely birthday dinner, especially I had doubts six months ago I would make it, home by 9:30 as it was getting busier so objectives met, nice meal limited risk and home for a kip all being well.

    Many happy returns, nichomar.
    Thanks
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/rorysalad/status/1309935683746881538

    https://twitter.com/rorysalad/status/1309936166184026113

    Also Red Wall voters are at least more inclined to vote Labour than others, this is good news for Keir
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
    However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
    So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.

    I have for a few weeks predicted Boris would be out in the first 6 months of 2021

    He just is not cutting it and Cummings, Williamson and his IMB have all been a disaster

    He has lost his authority and does not look well

    Time to go and spend it with Carrie and his little one and write columns for newspapers

    There's a people's revolt coming

    https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/1339801/boris-johnson-coronavirus-restrictions-latest
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1309948804284780547

    Does the same apply to the Chair of the National Institute for Health Protection?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,436
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1309948804284780547

    The Guardian and friends are going to be packed with stories about the two for weeks. It will make the bucket of shit tipped over Toby No-Mates look like nothing.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    MaxPB said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
    And the early pandemic polling which was never going to be representative of the true position. I think Labour have gone from about 12 points behind to 3 points ahead, which is still pretty good.
    Yes, Labour are doing all the right things but a GE is years away and goodness knows how things will look by then.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
    However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
    So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.

    I have for a few weeks predicted Boris would be out in the first 6 months of 2021

    He just is not cutting it and Cummings, Williamson and his IMB have all been a disaster

    He has lost his authority and does not look well

    Time to go and spend it with Carrie and his little one and write columns for newspapers

    There's a people's revolt coming

    https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/1339801/boris-johnson-coronavirus-restrictions-latest
    Agree with this. Now Labour are credible- or working toward it - Boris is fast becoming unstuck
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1309948804284780547

    The Guardian and friends are going to be packed with stories about the two for weeks. It will make the bucket of shit tipped over Toby No-Mates look like nothing.
    Which is fair enough - free speech still allowed in this country, I believe?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Normally this opinion poll would be exactly what one would expect in the normal rhythm of politics, and it would mean absolutely zilch this far away from a general election.
    However, the natives on the Tory backbenches are a bit restless, noticeably so given we are only 9 months into this government's rule. That's because quite a lot recognise, if they are honest with themselves, that Boris is simply not up to the job of PM. He's been dealt a weak hand, but has played it particularly badly. If Labour leads for a couple of months, or increases its lead, that restlessness will only increase.
    So, I reckon this poll counts for a bit more than it normally would - something, rather than absolutely zilch.

    Time to go and spend it with Carrie and his little one...
    Oh, you are a wag!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    MaxPB said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
    And the early pandemic polling which was never going to be representative of the true position. I think Labour have gone from about 12 points behind to 3 points ahead, which is still pretty good.
    I agree - that 26 point lead was never substantive. It was a product of a) a good government start to the pandemic in mid to late March, and more importantly b) masses of sympathy for BJ when he got seriously ill with the virus.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
    But is this still not an interesting point?

    Labour has chosen seemingly pretty poor leaders since Blair left - now we've chosen a non-terrible one we're doing better.

    Perhaps this idea Labour would languish forever was wildly mis-stated and the public do want to vote for us.
    It is excruciatingly naive to think that Labour's problems since Blair have been down exclusively to poor leadership.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1309951885428715521
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    To throw away a 26% lead is astonishing. Or is that the electorate just really hated Corbyn rather than loving Johnson?

    Labour's biggest mistake - and I didn't call for it until too late so I hold my hands up - was keeping Corbyn on for too long.

    If he'd been deposed in 2018 or early 2019, we'd be in Government now

    Tricky.

    It's definitely true that surprisingly popular Magic Grandpa Jez of 2017 had been replaced by snarly unpleasant racist undertones Jez of 2019.

    But the other thing is that the idealised Boris was an incredibly attractive proposition. It would be lovely to think that the UK's problems could be solved by just applying a little bit of Oomph, Pizzazz and Belief. And sacking boring lawyery types getting in the way. And Boris was just the chap to provide said Oomph, Pizzazz and Belief. It's not surprising that the Great British Public democratically went for it.

    Unfortunately for all of us, the UK's problems can't be solved by just applying a little bit of Oomph, Pizzazz and Belief. And real Boris is very different, and much worse, than idealised Boris.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,341
    Northern_Al said:

    MaxPB said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
    And the early pandemic polling which was never going to be representative of the true position. I think Labour have gone from about 12 points behind to 3 points ahead, which is still pretty good.
    I agree - that 26 point lead was never substantive. It was a product of a) a good government start to the pandemic in mid to late March, and more importantly b) masses of sympathy for BJ when he got seriously ill with the virus.
    And. In my case, a desperate hope they would succeed under the most difficult circumstances.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1309952275327188992
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    https://twitter.com/SpectatorEvents/status/1309930740973473794
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
    But is this still not an interesting point?

    Labour has chosen seemingly pretty poor leaders since Blair left - now we've chosen a non-terrible one we're doing better.

    Perhaps this idea Labour would languish forever was wildly mis-stated and the public do want to vote for us.
    It is excruciatingly naive to think that Labour's problems since Blair have been down exclusively to poor leadership.
    I do think leadership plays a large role, not the only role but a large one.

    I maintain our massive loss in 2019 was down to Corbyn overwhelmingly.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Wouldn't be surprised..

    https://twitter.com/J_Bloodworth/status/1309948696331776000?s=20
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Moore and Dacre have Cummings all over them, another distraction story
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every Tory leader I can think of has always gone behind in the polls, normally much quicker than this. Cameron spent virtually the entire 2010-2015 Parliament behind Ed. Thatcher went behind immediately after entering Downing Street in 1979.

    There's no point panicking or over-reacting. A Labour lead was inevitable.

    Whilst all of that is true you would be hard pushed to find another PM who turned a 26% lead into a 3% loss in 6 months.
    Yeah, but a lot of that is down to Labour replacing an unelectable leader with a more plausible one.
    But is this still not an interesting point?

    Labour has chosen seemingly pretty poor leaders since Blair left - now we've chosen a non-terrible one we're doing better.

    Perhaps this idea Labour would languish forever was wildly mis-stated and the public do want to vote for us.
    It is excruciatingly naive to think that Labour's problems since Blair have been down exclusively to poor leadership.
    I do think leadership plays a large role, not the only role but a large one.

    I maintain our massive loss in 2019 was down to Corbyn overwhelmingly.
    Yeah, that and Brexit fatigue, but both are gone now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Lozza news.

    https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1309955564903059456?s=20
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Opinium has found Starmer has gained back both leave and remain voters (latter almost entirely).

    They have found Leave voters are less enthused to vote at the moment, will we see this change or now that Brexit has been delivered and Labour has accepted it, will they bother to turn out to vote? Is there anything to save now
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I guess Blair was right, tacking towards the centre is the way to electoral success.

    I was wrong - I am happy to admit that

    See, that's very true. But, Starmer is still quite strongly on the left flank economically. What he's realised is that the British public have tacked quite strongly to the left on economic issues since 2008, but have moved away from liberalism a bit. Not to the extent that the madder Tories have done, but they're mostly fed up of culture wars and disliked Corbyn (and his shadow cabinet) based on those issues. Steal the cloak of patriotism, look competent and espouse social democratic economic policy and you might end up with something that looks and sounds like Clem Atlee. If you squint.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1309953828859580416

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1309954409561042945

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1309954432092831744
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Moore and Dacre have Cummings all over them, another distraction story

    There’s a mental image I could have done without.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,311
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    Does BoZo ditch Cummings in a desperate attempt to shore up his premiership, or does Gove engineer BoZo's departure to maintain Cummings' position...

    Gove has always been a plotter. I am green on him for next PM.
    Gove can't be PM, so he will need to elevate someone else.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    ydoethur said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Moore and Dacre have Cummings all over them, another distraction story

    There’s a mental image I could have done without.
    You always make me laugh mate, a happy sign in these dark times
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1309953828859580416

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1309954409561042945

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1309954432092831744

    I'm not entirely sure how this offers a meaningfully different choice from the current Tories, aside from being a convenient vehicle for the usual mad outrage mongers.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited September 2020
    Approval/disapproval ratings of how Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party.

    Overall: 40% approve, 21% disapprove. Net +19.

    2019 Conservative voters:29% approve, 31% disapprove. Net -2.

    Current Labour voters: 73% approve, 8% disapprove. Net +65.

    Current Executive members of my local Constituency Labour Party (all elected on a Momentum slate):
    0% approve, 100% disapprove (strongly).

    Source for the first three. Opinium Table V006(2).
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited September 2020
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54308329

    Having made little or no attempt at serious enforcement of self isolation and quarantine for the country at large, where many are ignoring or bending the rules whilst in far more congenial living conditions, students are being disgracefully scapegoated for circumstances largely beyond their control (indeed having been actively encouraged to put themselves in this position), imprisoned and threatened with fines, disciplinary action or worst, many without any warning or knowledge of the basis for their predicament.

    It's disgraceful.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    alex_ said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54308329

    Having made little or no attempt at serious enforcement of self isolation and quarantine for the country at large, where many are ignoring or bending the rules whilst in far more congenial living conditions, students are being disgracefully scapegoated for circumstances largely beyond their control (indeed having been actively encouraged to put themselves in this position), imprisoned and threatened with fines, disciplinary action or worst, many without any warning or knowledge of the basis for their predicament.

    It's disgraceful.

    We had some discussion around this in an earlier thread. I think they should just send the poor buggers home after two weeks in isolation. Full distance learning until next year. Don't force them to spend hundreds of points to stay in a prison when they could at least have home comforts to get them through this. The few who might want to stay for whatever reason should be able to be put up in much less crowded conditions.
This discussion has been closed.