On Rishi’s big day he just fails to hold on as “next PM” betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

LadyG said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Being a student is geting shitter by the day, no going to pubs or restaurants you plague carriers.

BBC News - Covid: Scottish university students banned from going to pubs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54285720

How the hell do you stop students from "going to pubs" or "partying", or "meeting people outside their accommodation"?

It's like making a law to stop babies crying.

If students stay 'within their six', and haven't been asked to self isolate due to a close contact with a positive case they have every right to go to the pub the same as any other adult. It's creating students as a leper class, and it ain't a good look.

Even as a non drinker, I spent a lot of my student days in pubs, it's bloody unenforceable.

You don't 'ban students' you make it a rule that drinks can only be served with meals, and must be drunk at a table or something along those lines. That way the Bath freshers toga party* is de facto excluded.

* I'd be amazed if that was going ahead this year.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-overrules-rishi-sunak-to-keep-triple-lock-on-pensions-d57k5hl8z

I hope we can all agree this is a terrible decision and shows Johnson to be a horrific PM

Has your new hero Keir demanded the ending of the triple lock yet

If he doesn't soon he will face strong criticism from me.

Why doesn't your hero Boris end it?

I assume it because it is a manifesto commitment

Personally, and as someone affected, I would end it but it it is very controversial territory for labour as well as they backed it at the last election as well

And by the way, Boris is no hero of mine, I want him replaced asap by Rishi

Boris is instinctively a follower (of public opinion), not a leader, hence his last minute conversion to Leave, and the lockdown in March being a week or two later than it ought to have been.
He will see what happens with the attitudes of non-pensioners when
1) this year earnings fall by, say, 5% but the pensioners still get a 2.5% increase; and
2) next year earnings bounce back by, say, 5% and the pensioners get the 5% too.
before making a decision.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Being a student is geting shitter by the day, no going to pubs or restaurants you plague carriers.

BBC News - Covid: Scottish university students banned from going to pubs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54285720

Next stop banned from going home at Christmas

That or testing them all is inevitable. Or we risk repeating the same mistake of emptying hospitals of people with covid from March.

Full Moonshot is impracticable, but full student body testing in the last week of term a sound idea.

Hold onto your seats, we're in for a bumpy ride...

Interesting that our GP practice e mailed me today to say they have hired a marquee for Saturday 10th October in the local park for patients to attend for their flu vaccinations and where applicable the patients blood pressure and weight will be taken and they will be offered an influenza vaccination as well if they qualify for it

They say unless their patients attend this mass vaccination they cannot guarantee an early vaccination in the near future

I like your GP(s).

I reckon we should just have special pubs and restaurants for the leapers.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I reckon we should just have special pubs and restaurants for the leapers.

It’s called the students union isn’t it?

Looking at the figures posted earlier, the Democrats could have a serious problem with younger black voters, who don't seem to be as averse to Trump as older black voters. If the overall black vote for the Democrats drops from 92% to 88%, Trump wins according to the demographic data.

Andy_JS said:

Looking at the figures posted earlier, the Democrats could have a serious problem with younger black voters, who don't seem to be as averse to Trump as older black voters. If the overall black vote for the Democrats drops from 92% to 88%, Trump wins according to the demographic data.

Assuming no other demographic changes.

isam said:

The non prediction doesn't seem to be a million miles out

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1309166373382356992?s=20

I know. It’s bloody concerning - the red is a “worst-case illustration” of how bad it could get if nothing changed.

However, it’s still only a few days in. Hopefully we’ll start to diverge soon.

Refreshing to see Sammy Wilson being a dickhead on the tube.

A timely reminder of what a total knob he is.

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

Hugely important info.

https://twitter.com/perrybaconjr/status/1308815346602827776?s=19

The Democrats should be very relieved that those younger (more Trump friendly) voters don't seem very motivated to vote!

Yes, but terrifying for long term trends. As the generations shaped by the civil rights movement die off the "inevitability of demographic change" becomes a lot less inevitable.

Plenty to concern the GOP too with the continued decline of the white population. How long can a Trump-like candidate win by appealing only to a WWC base?

So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?

The last Trafalgar Michigan poll had Trump leading by 2, so this is showing momentum in Biden’s direction, if anything.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309180919119515648
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181366324654081
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181731916972033

I still can’t get over how damn stupid the “false positive!” howlers were.
“So - you’re saying that the true positives are doubling far quicker than the official figures are saying?”

- “Yes! Ah... wait... wouldn’t that mean...”

Head.
Desk.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/StefanRousseau/status/1309130683940560909?s=09

Now do as you are told !!!!

Talk about "unsafe at any speed"!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alistair said:

So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?

TOO CONFUSING....

Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started

She cannot complain - she owns it

Andy_Cooke said:

isam said:

The non prediction doesn't seem to be a million miles out

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1309166373382356992?s=20

I know. It’s bloody concerning - the red is a “worst-case illustration” of how bad it could get if nothing changed.

However, it’s still only a few days in. Hopefully we’ll start to diverge soon.

Whatever the official advice, people are already heading for self-lockdown on their own initiative. It all has that March impending zombie apocalypse vibe going.

isam said:

Gallowgate said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

@TSE why does vanilla load so slowly on iOS?

Yeah I’ve noticed this for the past few months when using the iOS 14 beta.

Weirdly it does not happen on my iPad running iPad OS 14.

Almost impossible to read or post on my phone.. I thought that might have been a new feature!

How old is yours? I have an ancient phone (7yrs) and it's basically impossible through Vanilla.

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309197148790181899

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alistair said:

So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?

TOO CONFUSING....

Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started

She cannot complain - she owns it

I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.

RobD said:

isam said:

Gallowgate said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

@TSE why does vanilla load so slowly on iOS?

Yeah I’ve noticed this for the past few months when using the iOS 14 beta.

Weirdly it does not happen on my iPad running iPad OS 14.

Almost impossible to read or post on my phone.. I thought that might have been a new feature!

How old is yours? I have an ancient phone (7yrs) and it's basically impossible through Vanilla.

Quite old I think, might be a 5 or a 6. That's probably the reason!

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_Cooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309180919119515648
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181366324654081
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181731916972033

I still can’t get over how damn stupid the “false positive!” howlers were.
“So - you’re saying that the true positives are doubling far quicker than the official figures are saying?”

- “Yes! Ah... wait... wouldn’t that mean...”

Head.
Desk.

One thing that this pandemic has shown me is that far too many people, especially in the media, do not understand statistics or numbers in general.

Before we lay into people who were flagging up issues over the FPR (e.g. me), SAGE themselves flagged it up as concern in one of their minutes.

But that was in a moonshot level of testing context was it not, not the current modus operandi?

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309197148790181899

But they aren't paying ten grand for the privilege.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alistair said:

So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?

TOO CONFUSING....

Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started

She cannot complain - she owns it

I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.

Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her

Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Gallowgate said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

@TSE why does vanilla load so slowly on iOS?

Yeah I’ve noticed this for the past few months when using the iOS 14 beta.

Weirdly it does not happen on my iPad running iPad OS 14.

Almost impossible to read or post on my phone.. I thought that might have been a new feature!

Don't switch tabs or app while the page is loading. If you do, iOS shuts down the Javascript that loads the comments and you get left with the 'loading' blobs.

It's not since the site upgrade, I think it's more a prob with my phone. Although this is the only site I have probs with. I use vanilla community page, and it takes forever to load the topic/discussion, then sometime I only see 2/3 comments. Only telling you this to help, I am not complaining

isam said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Gallowgate said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

@TSE why does vanilla load so slowly on iOS?

Yeah I’ve noticed this for the past few months when using the iOS 14 beta.

Weirdly it does not happen on my iPad running iPad OS 14.

Almost impossible to read or post on my phone.. I thought that might have been a new feature!

Don't switch tabs or app while the page is loading. If you do, iOS shuts down the Javascript that loads the comments and you get left with the 'loading' blobs.

It's not since the site upgrade, I think it's more a prob with my phone. Although this is the only site I have probs with. I use vanilla community page, and it takes forever to load the topic/discussion, then sometime I only see 2/3 comments. Only telling you this to help, I am not complaining

Yeah, those are the same symptoms as me. Suspect our phones just aren't up to snuff.

rcs1000 said:

stodge said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1309160995496120321

This is all the information Trafalgar provide:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gUrxmVI0S8G0klptrEM6Etj4s38iAaCC/view

It's a 3% margin of error effectively but I have no idea how representative the sampling is within the state so it's meaningless to me without some context.

At least no one will be able to say Trump never led a Michigan poll if he wins the state.

It's very simple:

Do you believe the entire polling industry is seven points out, except for Rasmussen and Trafalgar?

To be fair, Rasmussen and Trafalgar aren't really in the polling industry -more like PR

BBC News - Sammy Wilson MP pictured not wearing mask on tube
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54284405

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alistair said:

So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?

TOO CONFUSING....

Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started

She cannot complain - she owns it

I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.

Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her

Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?

It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.

Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)

Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I'm not looking at comments through the main site, I am accessing through https://vf.politicalbetting.com/. That's what is very slow to load on iOS 14, iPhone 11 Pro @TSE

Let me have a look, I've hardly accessed PB from my iPhone in the last six months.

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_Cooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309180919119515648
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181366324654081
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181731916972033

I still can’t get over how damn stupid the “false positive!” howlers were.
“So - you’re saying that the true positives are doubling far quicker than the official figures are saying?”

- “Yes! Ah... wait... wouldn’t that mean...”

Head.
Desk.

One thing that this pandemic has shown me is that far too many people, especially in the media, do not understand statistics or numbers in general.

Before we lay into people who were flagging up issues over the FPR (e.g. me), SAGE themselves flagged it up as concern in one of their minutes.

Yes but the conclusion people were drawing from that were so stupid/dishonest (delete as appropriate) despite repeated explanations as to why they were wrong defied belief.

The entire twitter verse exploding in Conditional Probability 101 diagrams and people going "80% of cases are false negatives" based on an obviously bogus argument was mindbendingly awful.

SandyRentool said:

Flatlander said:

SandyRentool said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, we've had one hell of a thunder storm. Lightning very close by with huge thunder clap tripped the power, and there is over an inch depth of hailstones in the garden.

BBC weather forecast said "light showers". Pile of shite.

Update: So the drain in front of the garage was overwhelmed. I've just spent a pleasant hour mopping it up and moving stuff from the damp bits to the dry bits. The BBC weather forecast has just shown a photo of the hail from down the road in Shipley.

There's also a supercell storm hitting Bridlington at this very moment. These were forecast to some degree but they are fairly localised, so most people (like me) will have just got light showers.

Your storm (assuming I've got the right one) also moved in an anomalous way to the right of the prevailing wind, so might also have had supercell tendencies. It tracked E towards Wetherby whilst the general flow was S to N.

Radar watching (also known as 'nowcasting') tells you a lot more than any forecast will.

There's nothing wrong with Meteogroup, BTW. They've provided forecasts to many organisations (such as councils) for a long time.

Thanks.

The Look North weather man admitted that he hadn't forecast it and even apologised.

Why garages aren't built with a slope towards the door I do not know. Would have stopped the water running all the way to the back.

Thunderstorms were a fairly low probability to be fair, and were expected to be nearer the coast where there was an onshore wind (warm sea and all that). They were vaguely forecast as a possibility across the whole of the UK but pinning one down to Wharfedale would have been pretty difficult. I guess Paul Hudson had to apologise, though!

At least it was only the garage.

I passed through Fishlake at the weekend and people still have caravans in the front garden and the builders in. Houses almost submerged and then Covid hits. What a year.

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_Cooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309180919119515648
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181366324654081
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181731916972033

I still can’t get over how damn stupid the “false positive!” howlers were.
“So - you’re saying that the true positives are doubling far quicker than the official figures are saying?”

- “Yes! Ah... wait... wouldn’t that mean...”

Head.
Desk.

One thing that this pandemic has shown me is that far too many people, especially in the media, do not understand statistics or numbers in general.

Before we lay into people who were flagging up issues over the FPR (e.g. me), SAGE themselves flagged it up as concern in one of their minutes.

Yes but the conclusion people were drawing from that were so stupid/dishonest (delete as appropriate) despite repeated explanations as to why they were wrong defied belief.

The entire twitter verse exploding in Conditional Probability 101 diagrams and people going "80% of cases are false negatives" based on an obviously bogus argument was mindbendingly awful.

^^^^This.

Not one of them seemed to realise that the larger the false positives issue, the worse it meant the recent surge was.

Nor did they show any sign that they’d noticed their favoured numbers meant the true positive rate in July and early August had to often go negative - somehow.

The failure to understand basic conditional probability is more forgivable, as it’s often hard to wrap your head around, but given the way that many seemed to want to lecture about it with a complete lack of understanding did grate.

Cardiff looks like it is in line for local lockdown.

Regarding comments loading in Vanilla... first noticed it on an oldish iPad Air 4 about six weeks ago and commented here that @Malmesbury’s otherwise very helpful case tables meant I couldn’t load some pages at all... has steadily got worse until some days PB can’t be read at all... pages part loading then unloading and starting again... much better on my wife’s iPad Pro so I assume it’s a memory or processor thing... the time to load comments seems to correlate to the number of Twitter links on a page...

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I'm not looking at comments through the main site, I am accessing through https://vf.politicalbetting.com/. That's what is very slow to load on iOS 14, iPhone 11 Pro @TSE

Let me have a look, I've hardly accessed PB from my iPhone in the last six months.

Same issue on my iPhone 8, iOS 14. Has been for at least a month or so, so it isn’t a recent thing. I just assumed I had a buggy device and put up with it.

Yes, that's what I thought.

This is like one of those historic sex crime cases, where one person comes forward then loads more pop up!

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/StefanRousseau/status/1309130683940560909?s=09

Now do as you are told !!!!

Fantastic campaigning by Johnson. He really is a magnificent election campaigner.

Too bad there's no election to fight, but a country to run.

Black_Rook said:

IshmaelZ said:

Black_Rook said:

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alistair said:

So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?

TOO CONFUSING....

Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started

She cannot complain - she owns it

I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.

Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her

Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?

It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.

Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)

Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.

Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.

We can forget about vaccination. As I've said before, vaccines are a mirage - a (totally non-existent) image on the horizon, taunting us, always exactly as far away as it was at the beginning regardless of how long we've been desperately crawling towards it. It takes years and years and years to develop the typical vaccine and IIRC nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus. Hopeless and useless.

The only way to deal with this is to only implement restrictions that are broadly consistent with at least a semi-functioning economy, then let nature take its course and hope that the steady stream of hospital cases doesn't turn into a torrent. It's all about living with the thing now. Except that the Government and its advisers are so traumatised by what happened in the Spring that what they really want to do is keep locking down hard at the first sign of a resurgence. The only reason they've not done it already is that they want the current round of interventions to fail first, in order to give themselves the excuse to turn the screw harder and blame it on the disobedience of the public. But we'll all end up incarcerated in a broadly similar fashion to April before too much longer.

Vaccines were quoted as being 18 months away back in March.
Now we’re looking at getting the data finalised for up to three leading candidate vaccines the month after next.

And we have never failed to produce a vaccine for a coronavirus.
We have never bothered trying for the first 4 human coronaviruses, of course - no point. We succeeded in both the animal coronaviruses we tried (pigs and chickens, IIRC). We were 90% of the way through trials for both SARS and MERS when Governments cancelled them as now unnecessary.

So the “nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus” is somewhere between irrelevantly misleading and directly incorrect.

We will have a covid vaccine. By this time next year, there will be several licenced ones to pick and choose from.

Black_Rook said:

IshmaelZ said:

Black_Rook said:

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alistair said:

So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?

TOO CONFUSING....

Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started

She cannot complain - she owns it

I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.

Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her

Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?

It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.

Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)

Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.

Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.

We can forget about vaccination. As I've said before, vaccines are a mirage - a (totally non-existent) image on the horizon, taunting us, always exactly as far away as it was at the beginning regardless of how long we've been desperately crawling towards it. It takes years and years and years to develop the typical vaccine and IIRC nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus. Hopeless and useless.

The only way to deal with this is to only implement restrictions that are broadly consistent with at least a semi-functioning economy, then let nature take its course and hope that the steady stream of hospital cases doesn't turn into a torrent. It's all about living with the thing now. Except that the Government and its advisers are so traumatised by what happened in the Spring that what they really want to do is keep locking down hard at the first sign of a resurgence. The only reason they've not done it already is that they want the current round of interventions to fail first, in order to give themselves the excuse to turn the screw harder and blame it on the disobedience of the public. But we'll all end up incarcerated in a broadly similar fashion to April before too much longer.

We haven't had a single phase 3 trial result yet. When the futility boundary for placebo vs vaccine is failed for some current trials - well I'll head over to your camp. Till that time is hit, sorry but no.

One Scottish agency isn't happy about new controls.

https://twitter.com/CYPCS/status/1309202039935827968

I probably wont go to one anyway as I don't like drinking much before 10, but do you have to wear masks inside pubs as well now?

not_on_fire said:

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

Hugely important info.

https://twitter.com/perrybaconjr/status/1308815346602827776?s=19

The Democrats should be very relieved that those younger (more Trump friendly) voters don't seem very motivated to vote!

Yes, but terrifying for long term trends. As the generations shaped by the civil rights movement die off the "inevitability of demographic change" becomes a lot less inevitable.

Plenty to concern the GOP too with the continued decline of the white population. How long can a Trump-like candidate win by appealing only to a WWC base?

The long term dream candidate for the GOP is of course George P Bush, the half Hispanic Texas Land Commissioner and GOP royalty as son of Jeb Bush, nephew of President George W Bush and grandson of the late President George HW Bush

IshmaelZ said:

Black_Rook said:

IshmaelZ said:

Black_Rook said:

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alistair said:

So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?

TOO CONFUSING....

Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started

She cannot complain - she owns it

I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.

Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her

Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?

It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.

Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)

Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.

Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.

We can forget about vaccination. As I've said before, vaccines are a mirage - a (totally non-existent) image on the horizon, taunting us, always exactly as far away as it was at the beginning regardless of how long we've been desperately crawling towards it. It takes years and years and years to develop the typical vaccine and IIRC nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus. Hopeless and useless.

The only way to deal with this is to only implement restrictions that are broadly consistent with at least a semi-functioning economy, then let nature take its course and hope that the steady stream of hospital cases doesn't turn into a torrent. It's all about living with the thing now. Except that the Government and its advisers are so traumatised by what happened in the Spring that what they really want to do is keep locking down hard at the first sign of a resurgence. The only reason they've not done it already is that they want the current round of interventions to fail first, in order to give themselves the excuse to turn the screw harder and blame it on the disobedience of the public. But we'll all end up incarcerated in a broadly similar fashion to April before too much longer.

Big Science quietly flipped today from "Challenge Trials, harrumph, effically highly dubious" to all systems go, with no hint of dissent: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/uk-covid-19-vaccine-trial-set-to-infect-healthy-volunteers-with-virus

"Government-funded studies, which it is believed will be announced next week, could begin in January in London, the Financial Times has reported. Volunteers exposed to Covid-19 would be closely monitored in strict quarantine for as long as a month."

All this as the main reason for challenge trials - the fear that there won't be enough virus about in the wild for meaningful tests - goes firmly oot the windae.

Government is scared shitless and realises that the vaccine cavalry is not going to appear over the horizon any time soon.

Or it could be that the early data from P3 is strong enough to support a challenge trial. They said as much a few months ago and that a challenge trial is something they would look at as long as the risks were low, I have no doubt that Oxford and AZ are working to the highest ethical standards and this wouldn't have been approved if it was in any way dangerous to the participants.

I suspect a vaccine is still a much better hope than the moonshot 10 million tests a day or whatever the imagined number was, on a largely equivalent timescale.