A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
Not surprising. Sylvia Plath comes to mind.
I'm surprised, I confess. I already know that creatives -especially poets, maybe - have a notably greater tendency to mental disturbance, drug abuse, alcoholism, and so on, but 20%?! 1 in 5??
Startling.
Any figs for newt painters and scriveners of potboilers?
So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?
TOO CONFUSING....
Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started
She cannot complain - she owns it
I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.
Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her
Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?
It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.
Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)
Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.
Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.
We can forget about vaccination. As I've said before, vaccines are a mirage - a (totally non-existent) image on the horizon, taunting us, always exactly as far away as it was at the beginning regardless of how long we've been desperately crawling towards it. It takes years and years and years to develop the typical vaccine and IIRC nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus. Hopeless and useless.
The only way to deal with this is to only implement restrictions that are broadly consistent with at least a semi-functioning economy, then let nature take its course and hope that the steady stream of hospital cases doesn't turn into a torrent. It's all about living with the thing now. Except that the Government and its advisers are so traumatised by what happened in the Spring that what they really want to do is keep locking down hard at the first sign of a resurgence. The only reason they've not done it already is that they want the current round of interventions to fail first, in order to give themselves the excuse to turn the screw harder and blame it on the disobedience of the public. But we'll all end up incarcerated in a broadly similar fashion to April before too much longer.
Vaccines were quoted as being 18 months away back in March. Now we’re looking at getting the data finalised for up to three leading candidate vaccines the month after next.
And we have never failed to produce a vaccine for a coronavirus. We have never bothered trying for the first 4 human coronaviruses, of course - no point. We succeeded in both the animal coronaviruses we tried (pigs and chickens, IIRC). We were 90% of the way through trials for both SARS and MERS when Governments cancelled them as now unnecessary.
So the “nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus” is somewhere between irrelevantly misleading and directly incorrect.
We will have a covid vaccine. By this time next year, there will be several licenced ones to pick and choose from.
Well, to be absolutely fair I think that Whitty has been broadly consistent on the timescales. However, it does no good to one's confidence in the process when you get various of those involved in the projects telling us first that they're 80% confident they'll have the first million doses ready for priority groups in October, then that it might be ready to go by the end of the year, and now we're going to embark upon yet another round of trials next January.
These efforts are probably going to fall flat on their collective arse, of course, but even if they don't they're going to take so long that we'll all be bankrupt before the work is complete. So instead of a few thousand of us having died of Covid most of us will perish as a result of societal collapse and famine. I can hardly wait.
So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?
TOO CONFUSING....
Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started
She cannot complain - she owns it
I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.
Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her
Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?
It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.
Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)
Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.
Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.
We can forget about vaccination. As I've said before, vaccines are a mirage - a (totally non-existent) image on the horizon, taunting us, always exactly as far away as it was at the beginning regardless of how long we've been desperately crawling towards it. It takes years and years and years to develop the typical vaccine and IIRC nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus. Hopeless and useless.
The only way to deal with this is to only implement restrictions that are broadly consistent with at least a semi-functioning economy, then let nature take its course and hope that the steady stream of hospital cases doesn't turn into a torrent. It's all about living with the thing now. Except that the Government and its advisers are so traumatised by what happened in the Spring that what they really want to do is keep locking down hard at the first sign of a resurgence. The only reason they've not done it already is that they want the current round of interventions to fail first, in order to give themselves the excuse to turn the screw harder and blame it on the disobedience of the public. But we'll all end up incarcerated in a broadly similar fashion to April before too much longer.
"Government-funded studies, which it is believed will be announced next week, could begin in January in London, the Financial Times has reported. Volunteers exposed to Covid-19 would be closely monitored in strict quarantine for as long as a month."
All this as the main reason for challenge trials - the fear that there won't be enough virus about in the wild for meaningful tests - goes firmly oot the windae.
Government is scared shitless and realises that the vaccine cavalry is not going to appear over the horizon any time soon.
Or it could be that the early data from P3 is strong enough to support a challenge trial. They said as much a few months ago and that a challenge trial is something they would look at as long as the risks were low, I have no doubt that Oxford and AZ are working to the highest ethical standards and this wouldn't have been approved if it was in any way dangerous to the participants.
From reading round it seems that vaccines work best in the youngest and fittest with the best immune systems, so a young healthy person + vaccine would be at very low risk of viral complications. Hopefully we'll vaccinate the whole population once we've got something at say 65% efficacy and not just the vulnerable and elderly (Though they will be done first doubtless). We seem to have bought enough to do so I think !
So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?
TOO CONFUSING....
Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started
She cannot complain - she owns it
I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.
Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her
Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?
It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.
Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)
Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.
The thing is, governments in the west have for decades bigged up to electorates that your government can do almost anything for you if you pay enough tax and have enough faith.
Yet they have hurled everything at this pandemic and it has not been eradicated by their own measures.
These governments are running out of time and money. At some juncture they may have to turn around and tell electorates they have reached a limit to what they can do. That there is a ceiling on how much governments can actively protect citizens from the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.
And they may have to admit the one thing they desperately, desperately do not want to admit to ordinary people
'You are on your own'
Except nine months ago, this virus was a paragraph on the inside pages. Six months ago, UK lockdown had just started.
The UK government's response has been risible in many important ways. And as a nation, we do need to recalibrate our expectations. But the main thing we have to think about is whether we can expect everything to happen now now NOW. A vaccine next summer seems reasonable-to-cautious. That's a major nasty disease appearing, then broadly ceasing to be a problem, in a year and a half. World War II knocked people's lives out of shape far more and for far longer. It's a horrible economic setback, especially for those whose health or career plans have gone through the mincer. The worst in almost all of our lifetimes. But we are still a prosperous generation in a wealthy country. (If you don't think so, where and when would you rather be?)
Any other generation of humanity would think we are wizards, and that our (terrible) government has achieved remarkable things. We're still incredibly lucky to be alive here and now.
I still can’t get over how damn stupid the “false positive!” howlers were. “So - you’re saying that the true positives are doubling far quicker than the official figures are saying?”
- “Yes! Ah... wait... wouldn’t that mean...”
Head. Desk.
One thing that this pandemic has shown me is that far too many people, especially in the media, do not understand statistics or numbers in general.
Before we lay into people who were flagging up issues over the FPR (e.g. me), SAGE themselves flagged it up as concern in one of their minutes.
Yes but the conclusion people were drawing from that were so stupid/dishonest (delete as appropriate) despite repeated explanations as to why they were wrong defied belief.
The entire twitter verse exploding in Conditional Probability 101 diagrams and people going "80% of cases are false negatives" based on an obviously bogus argument was mindbendingly awful.
Lots of overexcitement about this. False positives are a serious issue when total positives are low, and the issue was raised when total positives were low. Now total positives are not low, and the issue is no longer being raised.
I suspect a vaccine is still a much better hope than the moonshot 10 million tests a day or whatever the imagined number was, on a largely equivalent timescale.
I think the moonshot testing idea will go the way of everybody having an antibody test and those with them getting an immunity passport....i.e. we will never hear of it again.
So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?
TOO CONFUSING....
Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started
She cannot complain - she owns it
I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.
Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her
Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?
It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.
Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)
Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.
Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.
We can forget about vaccination. As I've said before, vaccines are a mirage - a (totally non-existent) image on the horizon, taunting us, always exactly as far away as it was at the beginning regardless of how long we've been desperately crawling towards it. It takes years and years and years to develop the typical vaccine and IIRC nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus. Hopeless and useless.
The only way to deal with this is to only implement restrictions that are broadly consistent with at least a semi-functioning economy, then let nature take its course and hope that the steady stream of hospital cases doesn't turn into a torrent. It's all about living with the thing now. Except that the Government and its advisers are so traumatised by what happened in the Spring that what they really want to do is keep locking down hard at the first sign of a resurgence. The only reason they've not done it already is that they want the current round of interventions to fail first, in order to give themselves the excuse to turn the screw harder and blame it on the disobedience of the public. But we'll all end up incarcerated in a broadly similar fashion to April before too much longer.
Vaccines were quoted as being 18 months away back in March. Now we’re looking at getting the data finalised for up to three leading candidate vaccines the month after next.
And we have never failed to produce a vaccine for a coronavirus. We have never bothered trying for the first 4 human coronaviruses, of course - no point. We succeeded in both the animal coronaviruses we tried (pigs and chickens, IIRC). We were 90% of the way through trials for both SARS and MERS when Governments cancelled them as now unnecessary.
So the “nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus” is somewhere between irrelevantly misleading and directly incorrect.
We will have a covid vaccine. By this time next year, there will be several licenced ones to pick and choose from.
Well, to be absolutely fair I think that Whitty has been broadly consistent on the timescales. However, it does no good to one's confidence in the process when you get various of those involved in the projects telling us first that they're 80% confident they'll have the first million doses ready for priority groups in October, then that it might be ready to go by the end of the year, and now we're going to embark upon yet another round of trials next January.
These efforts are probably going to fall flat on their collective arse, of course, but even if they don't they're going to take so long that we'll all be bankrupt before the work is complete. So instead of a few thousand of us having died of Covid most of us will perish as a result of societal collapse and famine. I can hardly wait.
Challenge trials are incredibly fast to do, you vaccinate a cohort of 5,000 people, wait for two weeks, test for antibodies, expose to the virus and monitor the participants for a period of two weeks to see what, if any, symptoms of coronavirus they develop. If we're at the stage where a challenge trial is being prepared it's very positive news as we wouldn't be considering it unless the vaccine had very positive early data.
So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?
TOO CONFUSING....
Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started
She cannot complain - she owns it
I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.
Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her
Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?
It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.
Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)
Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.
Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.
We can forget about vaccination. As I've said before, vaccines are a mirage - a (totally non-existent) image on the horizon, taunting us, always exactly as far away as it was at the beginning regardless of how long we've been desperately crawling towards it. It takes years and years and years to develop the typical vaccine and IIRC nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus. Hopeless and useless.
The only way to deal with this is to only implement restrictions that are broadly consistent with at least a semi-functioning economy, then let nature take its course and hope that the steady stream of hospital cases doesn't turn into a torrent. It's all about living with the thing now. Except that the Government and its advisers are so traumatised by what happened in the Spring that what they really want to do is keep locking down hard at the first sign of a resurgence. The only reason they've not done it already is that they want the current round of interventions to fail first, in order to give themselves the excuse to turn the screw harder and blame it on the disobedience of the public. But we'll all end up incarcerated in a broadly similar fashion to April before too much longer.
"Government-funded studies, which it is believed will be announced next week, could begin in January in London, the Financial Times has reported. Volunteers exposed to Covid-19 would be closely monitored in strict quarantine for as long as a month."
All this as the main reason for challenge trials - the fear that there won't be enough virus about in the wild for meaningful tests - goes firmly oot the windae.
Government is scared shitless and realises that the vaccine cavalry is not going to appear over the horizon any time soon.
Or it could be that the early data from P3 is strong enough to support a challenge trial. They said as much a few months ago and that a challenge trial is something they would look at as long as the risks were low, I have no doubt that Oxford and AZ are working to the highest ethical standards and this wouldn't have been approved if it was in any way dangerous to the participants.
Challenge trials cannot avoid being dangerous to the participants in at least three ways: The virus is dangerous and the disease it induces is treatable but not curable; the vaccine may be harmful in itself; the vaccine may be otherwise harmless but harmful in conjunction with the virus (ADE). Approval means that the risk is thought to be justified, not that it does not exist.
So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?
TOO CONFUSING....
Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started
She cannot complain - she owns it
I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.
Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her
Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?
It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.
Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)
Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.
Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.
We can forget about vaccination. As I've said before, vaccines are a mirage - a (totally non-existent) image on the horizon, taunting us, always exactly as far away as it was at the beginning regardless of how long we've been desperately crawling towards it. It takes years and years and years to develop the typical vaccine and IIRC nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus. Hopeless and useless.
The only way to deal with this is to only implement restrictions that are broadly consistent with at least a semi-functioning economy, then let nature take its course and hope that the steady stream of hospital cases doesn't turn into a torrent. It's all about living with the thing now. Except that the Government and its advisers are so traumatised by what happened in the Spring that what they really want to do is keep locking down hard at the first sign of a resurgence. The only reason they've not done it already is that they want the current round of interventions to fail first, in order to give themselves the excuse to turn the screw harder and blame it on the disobedience of the public. But we'll all end up incarcerated in a broadly similar fashion to April before too much longer.
"Government-funded studies, which it is believed will be announced next week, could begin in January in London, the Financial Times has reported. Volunteers exposed to Covid-19 would be closely monitored in strict quarantine for as long as a month."
All this as the main reason for challenge trials - the fear that there won't be enough virus about in the wild for meaningful tests - goes firmly oot the windae.
Government is scared shitless and realises that the vaccine cavalry is not going to appear over the horizon any time soon.
Or it could be that the early data from P3 is strong enough to support a challenge trial. They said as much a few months ago and that a challenge trial is something they would look at as long as the risks were low, I have no doubt that Oxford and AZ are working to the highest ethical standards and this wouldn't have been approved if it was in any way dangerous to the participants.
Challenge trials cannot avoid being dangerous to the participants in at least three ways: The virus is dangerous and the disease it induces is treatable but not curable; the vaccine may be harmful in itself; the vaccine may be otherwise harmless but harmful in conjunction with the virus (ADE). Approval means that the risk is thought to be justified, not that it does not exist.
Sure but the justification comes from the risk being lower, the other inputs haven't changed. AZ have got preliminary data on efficacy and suddenly they're asking for a challenge trial to be approved. Those two events are linked.
I suspect a vaccine is still a much better hope than the moonshot 10 million tests a day or whatever the imagined number was, on a largely equivalent timescale.
I think the moonshot testing idea will go the way of everybody having an antibody test and those with them getting an immunity passport....i.e. we will never hear of it again.
It's today's distraction from how horribly the government has handled the situation, nothing more.
So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?
TOO CONFUSING....
Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started
She cannot complain - she owns it
I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.
Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her
Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?
It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.
Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)
Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.
Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.
We can forget about vaccination. As I've said before, vaccines are a mirage - a (totally non-existent) image on the horizon, taunting us, always exactly as far away as it was at the beginning regardless of how long we've been desperately crawling towards it. It takes years and years and years to develop the typical vaccine and IIRC nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus. Hopeless and useless.
The only way to deal with this is to only implement restrictions that are broadly consistent with at least a semi-functioning economy, then let nature take its course and hope that the steady stream of hospital cases doesn't turn into a torrent. It's all about living with the thing now. Except that the Government and its advisers are so traumatised by what happened in the Spring that what they really want to do is keep locking down hard at the first sign of a resurgence. The only reason they've not done it already is that they want the current round of interventions to fail first, in order to give themselves the excuse to turn the screw harder and blame it on the disobedience of the public. But we'll all end up incarcerated in a broadly similar fashion to April before too much longer.
Vaccines were quoted as being 18 months away back in March. Now we’re looking at getting the data finalised for up to three leading candidate vaccines the month after next.
And we have never failed to produce a vaccine for a coronavirus. We have never bothered trying for the first 4 human coronaviruses, of course - no point. We succeeded in both the animal coronaviruses we tried (pigs and chickens, IIRC). We were 90% of the way through trials for both SARS and MERS when Governments cancelled them as now unnecessary.
So the “nobody has ever made one for a coronavirus” is somewhere between irrelevantly misleading and directly incorrect.
We will have a covid vaccine. By this time next year, there will be several licenced ones to pick and choose from.
Well, to be absolutely fair I think that Whitty has been broadly consistent on the timescales. However, it does no good to one's confidence in the process when you get various of those involved in the projects telling us first that they're 80% confident they'll have the first million doses ready for priority groups in October, then that it might be ready to go by the end of the year, and now we're going to embark upon yet another round of trials next January.
These efforts are probably going to fall flat on their collective arse, of course, but even if they don't they're going to take so long that we'll all be bankrupt before the work is complete. So instead of a few thousand of us having died of Covid most of us will perish as a result of societal collapse and famine. I can hardly wait.
"Coronavirus vaccine: A million doses could be available by September – if trials starting this week are successful."
Independent 18 April 2020
Not a gotcha, but a corrective to any claim that there has been no slippage in vaccine predictions.
I've blocked Twitter widget loading through adblock on iOS and macOS and the issue remains.
Twitter loads post page load anyway. To be fair it's slow to load Twitter as well but the main page loading is the main slow bit that I referred to.
Adblock will not save you if Vanilla's scripts are accessing twitter and loading a bunch of tweets. All that will happen is that you will not see the results of the load, but it will still happen as part of the page load.
I've blocked Twitter widget loading through adblock on iOS and macOS and the issue remains.
Twitter loads post page load anyway. To be fair it's slow to load Twitter as well but the main page loading is the main slow bit that I referred to.
Adblock will not save you if Vanilla's scripts are accessing twitter and loading a bunch of tweets. All that will happen is that you will not see the results of the load, but it will still happen as part of the page load.
I think Twitter is loading post page load via a JS call. I still see the links, because I think what is happening is that a call is converting the links to embedded Tweets. That's the way I've setup blocking anyway.
@ TSE "One thing that this pandemic has shown me is that far too many people, especially in the media, do not understand statistics or numbers in general."
That numerical ignorance is widespread, including amongst scientists, is very well known, even amongst the Germans.
"In a survey, 1000 Germans were asked what ‘40%’ means: one quarter, 4 out of 10 or every 40th person. About one third of responders did not chose the right answer". Calculated Risk
And from How Risk Is It Really?: Which is more likely, 1 in 100, 1 in 1,000, or 1 in 10? (20% got this wrong) Let’s say you buy an “I’m Feeling Lucky!” lottery scratch ticket. One player in 1,000 wins. So, what percentage of those folks are going to feel lucky after they scratch off the ticket? (80% got this wrong) Let’s say you buy an “I Am Going To Be Filthy Stinking Rich!” lottery ticket. One percent of the “investors” in this game win the big prize. If 1,000 people play this game, how many people end up filthy stinking rich? (40% got this wrong) If you take one die from a set and roll it 1,000 times, how many times would it come up on an even number (2, 4, or 6)? (45% got this wrong)
I still can’t get over how damn stupid the “false positive!” howlers were. “So - you’re saying that the true positives are doubling far quicker than the official figures are saying?”
- “Yes! Ah... wait... wouldn’t that mean...”
Head. Desk.
One thing that this pandemic has shown me is that far too many people, especially in the media, do not understand statistics or numbers in general.
Before we lay into people who were flagging up issues over the FPR (e.g. me), SAGE themselves flagged it up as concern in one of their minutes.
Yes but the conclusion people were drawing from that were so stupid/dishonest (delete as appropriate) despite repeated explanations as to why they were wrong defied belief.
The entire twitter verse exploding in Conditional Probability 101 diagrams and people going "80% of cases are false negatives" based on an obviously bogus argument was mindbendingly awful.
Lots of overexcitement about this. False positives are a serious issue when total positives are low, and the issue was raised when total positives were low. Now total positives are not low, and the issue is no longer being raised.
See?
That's... that's not how I remember it.
The plot thickens. And not in a good way...
"When testing 200,000 people every day for Covid, the risk of EBV-generated [Glandular fever] false positives (or other false positives from other viruses) potentially start to matter a very great deal.
The UK has now done 20 million tests and continues to test over 200,000 a day. It is not known whether there are other viruses that can mistakenly generate a positive Covid test result on rare occasions. When testing at the rate we are, even a 5% chance of producing false positives from other viruses in this way becomes highly significant, especially if there are co-infections."
Yeah I’ve noticed this for the past few months when using the iOS 14 beta.
Weirdly it does not happen on my iPad running iPad OS 14.
Almost impossible to read or post on my phone.. I thought that might have been a new feature!
Don't switch tabs or app while the page is loading. If you do, iOS shuts down the Javascript that loads the comments and you get left with the 'loading' blobs.
It's not since the site upgrade, I think it's more a prob with my phone. Although this is the only site I have probs with. I use vanilla community page, and it takes forever to load the topic/discussion, then sometime I only see 2/3 comments. Only telling you this to help, I am not complaining
Yeah, those are the same symptoms as me. Suspect our phones just aren't up to snuff.
I'm having the same problem on a relatively recent phone (iphone XR). I think it is some poorly written javascript
Well this is very possible/likely.
I'm not sure the logic behind loading every Tweet, I would have implemented lazy loading or selective loading.
Yeah I’ve noticed this for the past few months when using the iOS 14 beta.
Weirdly it does not happen on my iPad running iPad OS 14.
Almost impossible to read or post on my phone.. I thought that might have been a new feature!
Don't switch tabs or app while the page is loading. If you do, iOS shuts down the Javascript that loads the comments and you get left with the 'loading' blobs.
It's not since the site upgrade, I think it's more a prob with my phone. Although this is the only site I have probs with. I use vanilla community page, and it takes forever to load the topic/discussion, then sometime I only see 2/3 comments. Only telling you this to help, I am not complaining
Yeah, those are the same symptoms as me. Suspect our phones just aren't up to snuff.
I'm having the same problem on a relatively recent phone (iphone XR). I think it is some poorly written javascript
Well this is very possible/likely.
I'm not sure the logic behind loading every Tweet, I would have implemented lazy loading or selective loading.
Just for LOLs I turned on the developer window in Chrome.
764 requests to load this thread.
Bunch of 403s on various requests.......
With that lot, it is rather surprising that the thread loads at all.....
So the Scotland Student Pub Ban is both just advice and only for this weekend?
TOO CONFUSING....
Problems mount for Sturgeon and the blame game has really started
She cannot complain - she owns it
I struggle to understand how the students can be forced to do anything which is not part of the general restrictions. I think someone is going to far and will lose the goodwill of many people.
Sturgeon always has been authoritarian and this is turning into a crisis of the young for her
Why is there such a problem in Lockdown Scotland?
It's the fault of the Tories. Or something.
Seriously, though, it's kicking off in various parts of the UK all in one go, isn't it? Hopefully the death count won't be so high second time round; beyond that, the only prediction I'm willing to venture (apart from this all ending up in total lockdown again before very long) is that the cases will be even more heavily tilted to those areas with higher levels of poverty and urban density this time around than they were in the Spring (with the caveat that London might well get off more lightly if it's achieved some kind of partial herd immunity.) This disease, it seems, is bound to do more harm to people who live in crap and overcrowded housing, are less able on average to work from home, and less likely to stick to the ever-shifting panoply of rules (or even to gold plate them - I was surprised to hear that table service wasn't, until the latest round of diktats, mandatory in pubs, when it's been established practice in the relatively well-heeled rural areas that I inhabit since they were allowed to reopen.)
Most parts of the country that got off lightly the last time (e.g. Devon and Cornwall) ought to get off lightly again this time, in terms of Covid cases if nothing else. If I'm right and the panicking Government ends up shutting everything down again then we're all going to go down with the sinking economy.
Yes to all that. Lots of people have been saying throughout that a second wave was inevitable. It is now here, and it's just past the equinox. 7, SEVEN months to go before non-cold, wet and shitty weather can be expected. Gonna be bad, as in mass graves in Hyde Park bad. And don't get me started on vaccines. Challenge trials of the most hopeful candidates starting in January, seem inconsistent with the hope that we'll have vaccinated all the key workers by Christmas.
Imagine your reasonable worst case scenario: because that is what will happen
The messaging seems wrong to me. You don't get the nation to comply with the rules by threatening them with the rozzers / fines.
Again, this is where the Boris evening address failed. He has completely forgotten how to connect to people, explaining why mask wearing is a necessity and that people shouldn't lie about health conditions to avoid them because all they are doing is risking the health of all those around them and themselves. Appealing to decency always works better than fines, have the fines and start enforcing them and let word filter out that fines are being enforced, don't threaten people on national TV, it just pushes people further into their chosen corners.
He needed this speech:
Today I'm speaking to the nation to address the latest stage of this crisis, unfortunately things haven't gone as we'd hoped and we are facing a serious situation as a nation.
This means we stand at the precipice of a second national lockdown, this is something all of us want to avoid, especially over the Christmas period when spending time with family is so important, more important than normal after such a wretched year. In order to avoid this from happening the government is taking steps to increase the amount of testing available, sadly we're at a point in time where demand is around 4x higher than available tests, there is no amount of testing capacity we can put in place in the short to medium term that can handle this level of demand.
To bring demand down to manageable levels I'm asking everyone in the country to be responsible and only request a test if you have virus symptoms or have been contacted by NHS test and trace. The specific symptoms to look out for are having a high temperature, a persistent dry cough and a loss in one's sense of taste and smell. If you have a temperature and one of the other symptoms please do book a test and we will ensure you get one as soon as possible, if you have other symptoms such a sneezing or a cough which produces phlegm please don't request a test, in order to avoid any confusion we are going to be adding temperature checks at all community testing centres, if you don't have a high temperature or an NHS test and trace appointment you will be turned away from the centre regardless of any self-certifed appointments booked online. We ask that you do not argue with or abuse the staff who turn you away.
I know this is all very bad news and I wish I had some good news to share with everyone, but unfortunately there isn't any at the moment. However, I know that the spirit of the British people remains undimmed and we will beat this together as a nation.
I still can’t get over how damn stupid the “false positive!” howlers were. “So - you’re saying that the true positives are doubling far quicker than the official figures are saying?”
- “Yes! Ah... wait... wouldn’t that mean...”
Head. Desk.
One thing that this pandemic has shown me is that far too many people, especially in the media, do not understand statistics or numbers in general.
Before we lay into people who were flagging up issues over the FPR (e.g. me), SAGE themselves flagged it up as concern in one of their minutes.
Yes but the conclusion people were drawing from that were so stupid/dishonest (delete as appropriate) despite repeated explanations as to why they were wrong defied belief.
The entire twitter verse exploding in Conditional Probability 101 diagrams and people going "80% of cases are false negatives" based on an obviously bogus argument was mindbendingly awful.
Lots of overexcitement about this. False positives are a serious issue when total positives are low, and the issue was raised when total positives were low. Now total positives are not low, and the issue is no longer being raised.
See?
That's... that's not how I remember it.
The plot thickens. And not in a good way...
"When testing 200,000 people every day for Covid, the risk of EBV-generated [Glandular fever] false positives (or other false positives from other viruses) potentially start to matter a very great deal.
The UK has now done 20 million tests and continues to test over 200,000 a day. It is not known whether there are other viruses that can mistakenly generate a positive Covid test result on rare occasions. When testing at the rate we are, even a 5% chance of producing false positives from other viruses in this way becomes highly significant, especially if there are co-infections."
I'm truly astounded that a site that regularly featured articles from a guy who thought that less than 7000 people would die from Covid had an article suggesting no one is dying from Covid.
Boris is having a terrible crisis. Rishi is three steps ahead at every turn. Today's measures are another example - he's managed to cut the government bill by 60-80% but still ensure that most jobs are saved.
I probably wont go to one anyway as I don't like drinking much before 10, but do you have to wear masks inside pubs as well now?
Only when stood up I believe
This diagram explains the science behind it:
Suggests that the seven dwarves can ignore the rule of six.
Since the people breathing and talking without masks are the ones sitting down, it seems odd that the virus is all moving around above their heads like that?
Have to say this idea of students staying at uni over Xmas is terrible. If we know this far in advance then surely we can stockpile tests and provide them with tests should they want to go home. This is the first misstep in Sturgeon's messaging IMO.
The messaging seems wrong to me. You don't get the nation to comply with the rules by threatening them with the rozzers / fines.
Again, this is where the Boris evening address failed. He has completely forgotten how to connect to people, explaining why mask wearing is a necessity and that people shouldn't lie about health conditions to avoid them because all they are doing is risking the health of all those around them and themselves. Appealing to decency always works better than fines, have the fines and start enforcing them and let word filter out that fines are being enforced, don't threaten people on national TV, it just pushes people further into their chosen corners.
He needed this speech:
Today I'm speaking to the nation to address the latest stage of this crisis, unfortunately things haven't gone as we'd hoped and we are facing a serious situation as a nation.
This means we stand at the precipice of a second national lockdown, this is something all of us want to avoid, especially over the Christmas period when spending time with family is so important, more important than normal after such a wretched year. In order to avoid this from happening the government is taking steps to increase the amount of testing available, sadly we're at a point in time where demand is around 4x higher than available tests, there is no amount of testing capacity we can put in place in the short to medium term that can handle this level of demand.
To bring demand down to manageable levels I'm asking everyone in the country to be responsible and only request a test if you have virus symptoms or have been contacted by NHS test and trace. The specific symptoms to look out for are having a high temperature, a persistent dry cough and a loss in one's sense of taste and smell. If you have a temperature and one of the other symptoms please do book a test and we will ensure you get one as soon as possible, if you have other symptoms such a sneezing or a cough which produces phlegm please don't request a test, in order to avoid any confusion we are going to be adding temperature checks at all community testing centres, if you don't have a high temperature or an NHS test and trace appointment you will be turned away from the centre regardless of any self-certifed appointments booked online. We ask that you do not argue with or abuse the staff who turn you away.
I know this is all very bad news and I wish I had some good news to share with everyone, but unfortunately there isn't any at the moment. However, I know that the spirit of the British people remains undimmed and we will beat this together as a nation.
I'd vote for you.
A bit of honesty is long overdue from this government.
The nub of it is that honesty is seen as a sign of weakness. Just look on PB to see how often (ie not often at all) a poster says "yes you're right I hadn't looked at it like that" and multiply it 1,000 times for politicians.
Which of course means it's our, the voting public's fault because that's who we vote for.
Judging by the most highly-rated comments on the Daily Mail, a lot of people are buying into whatever conspiracy theory they can find, and the idea that false positives mean the pandemic is over is very popular.
I still can’t get over how damn stupid the “false positive!” howlers were. “So - you’re saying that the true positives are doubling far quicker than the official figures are saying?”
- “Yes! Ah... wait... wouldn’t that mean...”
Head. Desk.
These hospitalizations must clearly be false positives, or something. Retired Bloke will be vindicated in the end, I'm sure!
As ever my first response is to calculate an R value based on hospitalisations -> 1.24.
This is potentially a rough couple of weeks incoming, the calculated Rs for flu go from increasing slowly above 21C to increasing rapidly below 18C daytime max and Corona isn't contradicting that. The north has been a little below that transition for a slight majority of the last 5 weeks, and now the south is below 18C for a full week. I'd not be surprised if by the week of 5th October the South and London is in a rapidly worsening position.
I don't think it will be lockdown at that stage, but further restrictions could be needed quite early.
Looking to PHE tomorrow, I reckon we're looking mainly at extending the geography and depths of current lockdowns - Wigan, Blackpool and parts of Cheshire into regs, maybe Leeds this time, perhaps tighter restrictions still on Manchester, Salford, Bolton. Overall expect more adjustment in NW than in NE or York's or Midlands. And perhaps Redbridge as the first London area of concern.
The messaging seems wrong to me. You don't get the nation to comply with the rules by threatening them with the rozzers / fines.
Again, this is where the Boris evening address failed. He has completely forgotten how to connect to people, explaining why mask wearing is a necessity and that people shouldn't lie about health conditions to avoid them because all they are doing is risking the health of all those around them and themselves. Appealing to decency always works better than fines, have the fines and start enforcing them and let word filter out that fines are being enforced, don't threaten people on national TV, it just pushes people further into their chosen corners.
He needed this speech:
Today I'm speaking to the nation to address the latest stage of this crisis, unfortunately things haven't gone as we'd hoped and we are facing a serious situation as a nation.
This means we stand at the precipice of a second national lockdown, this is something all of us want to avoid, especially over the Christmas period when spending time with family is so important, more important than normal after such a wretched year. In order to avoid this from happening the government is taking steps to increase the amount of testing available, sadly we're at a point in time where demand is around 4x higher than available tests, there is no amount of testing capacity we can put in place in the short to medium term that can handle this level of demand.
To bring demand down to manageable levels I'm asking everyone in the country to be responsible and only request a test if you have virus symptoms or have been contacted by NHS test and trace. The specific symptoms to look out for are having a high temperature, a persistent dry cough and a loss in one's sense of taste and smell. If you have a temperature and one of the other symptoms please do book a test and we will ensure you get one as soon as possible, if you have other symptoms such a sneezing or a cough which produces phlegm please don't request a test, in order to avoid any confusion we are going to be adding temperature checks at all community testing centres, if you don't have a high temperature or an NHS test and trace appointment you will be turned away from the centre regardless of any self-certifed appointments booked online. We ask that you do not argue with or abuse the staff who turn you away.
I know this is all very bad news and I wish I had some good news to share with everyone, but unfortunately there isn't any at the moment. However, I know that the spirit of the British people remains undimmed and we will beat this together as a nation.
And I would add: "we know some of this doesn't seem to make sense and there are endless scenarios which seem to be self-contradictory. But please be aware that we are trying to tread a very fine line between allowing people some form of normality and suppressing the virus. So please bear with us and be assured that we are erring on the side of rules which make as much sense as possible."
Fantastic campaigning by Johnson. He really is a magnificent election campaigner.
He is, but if Private Eye don't do a cover with a speech bubble saying "sorry Sir, the suspect needs to sit in the back seat", they're missing a trick.
My tongue was firmly in my cheek. It might be nice if our PM was doing genuine work other than photo- ops.
It might be nice if he was wearing a mask like the rest of us are ordered to do. Lead by example...
Boris is having a terrible crisis. Rishi is three steps ahead at every turn. Today's measures are another example - he's managed to cut the government bill by 60-80% but still ensure that most jobs are saved.
It looks like it (albeit that Sunak's announcement basically means death for every sector of the economy - e.g. nightclubs, theatres, most professional sports - that are either forcibly shuttered or restricted to a tiny fraction of their previous count of paying customers.) Of course, in about another five minutes' time when we find ourselves in Lockdown 2.0 until next Easter then the entire effort of all his interventions will have been for nothing. We'll end up with about 12 million unemployed anyway.
Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.
He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.
But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.
In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.
Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
I disagree.
You say that he's lacking in experience, to which I say: you're having a giraffe.
Being Chancellor of the Exchequer at the best of times is a lot of experience in one go. Doing so during the biggest economic crisis of the past 300 years is a baptism of fire. He will sink or swim and there's no time for looking back. It seems like he's swimming.
The step up from mere MP to LOTO/PM is one thing, the step up from Chancellor of the Exchequer to PM is something else entirely.
The last thing he's lacking now is experience.
PS David Cameron only took his seat in Witney in 2001 and became Leader of his party in 2005. Sunak took his seat in Richmond in 2015 so has already been an MPlonger than Cameron was.
The messaging seems wrong to me. You don't get the nation to comply with the rules by threatening them with the rozzers / fines.
Again, this is where the Boris evening address failed. He has completely forgotten how to connect to people, explaining why mask wearing is a necessity and that people shouldn't lie about health conditions to avoid them because all they are doing is risking the health of all those around them and themselves. Appealing to decency always works better than fines, have the fines and start enforcing them and let word filter out that fines are being enforced, don't threaten people on national TV, it just pushes people further into their chosen corners.
He needed this speech:
Today I'm speaking to the nation to address the latest stage of this crisis, unfortunately things haven't gone as we'd hoped and we are facing a serious situation as a nation.
This means we stand at the precipice of a second national lockdown, this is something all of us want to avoid, especially over the Christmas period when spending time with family is so important, more important than normal after such a wretched year. In order to avoid this from happening the government is taking steps to increase the amount of testing available, sadly we're at a point in time where demand is around 4x higher than available tests, there is no amount of testing capacity we can put in place in the short to medium term that can handle this level of demand.
To bring demand down to manageable levels I'm asking everyone in the country to be responsible and only request a test if you have virus symptoms or have been contacted by NHS test and trace. The specific symptoms to look out for are having a high temperature, a persistent dry cough and a loss in one's sense of taste and smell. If you have a temperature and one of the other symptoms please do book a test and we will ensure you get one as soon as possible, if you have other symptoms such a sneezing or a cough which produces phlegm please don't request a test, in order to avoid any confusion we are going to be adding temperature checks at all community testing centres, if you don't have a high temperature or an NHS test and trace appointment you will be turned away from the centre regardless of any self-certifed appointments booked online. We ask that you do not argue with or abuse the staff who turn you away.
I know this is all very bad news and I wish I had some good news to share with everyone, but unfortunately there isn't any at the moment. However, I know that the spirit of the British people remains undimmed and we will beat this together as a nation.
And I would add: "we know some of this doesn't seem to make sense and there are endless scenarios which seem to be self-contradictory. But please be aware that we are trying to tread a very fine line between allowing people some form of normality and suppressing the virus. So please bear with us and be assured that we are erring on the side of rules which make as much sense as possible."
Yes, that and a small section on mask wearing in indoor public places would have been very helpful. Overall it's still not a long speech but it's not full of useless waffle like the one we got a couple of nights ago.
Yeah I’ve noticed this for the past few months when using the iOS 14 beta.
Weirdly it does not happen on my iPad running iPad OS 14.
Almost impossible to read or post on my phone.. I thought that might have been a new feature!
Don't switch tabs or app while the page is loading. If you do, iOS shuts down the Javascript that loads the comments and you get left with the 'loading' blobs.
It's not since the site upgrade, I think it's more a prob with my phone. Although this is the only site I have probs with. I use vanilla community page, and it takes forever to load the topic/discussion, then sometime I only see 2/3 comments. Only telling you this to help, I am not complaining
Yeah, those are the same symptoms as me. Suspect our phones just aren't up to snuff.
I'm having the same problem on a relatively recent phone (iphone XR). I think it is some poorly written javascript
Well this is very possible/likely.
I'm not sure the logic behind loading every Tweet, I would have implemented lazy loading or selective loading.
I would imagine that few sites using Vanilla load a few hundred Twitter references at a time, so lazy programming took over from lazy loading.
Odd observation in a large north London Sainsbury's, today
About 95% mask compliance. BUT several people were not complying.
They were ALL middle aged women aged 35-60. Some with kids, some not, all ethnicities, but all women in that age bracket. Every male was wearing a mask, every young person or pensioner.
What's their fucking problem? Put on a mask you absurd, mooing cows.
Odd observation in a large north London Sainsbury's, today
About 95% mask compliance. BUT several people were not complying.
They were ALL middle aged women aged 35-60. Some with kids, some not, all ethnicities, but all women in that age bracket. Every male was wearing a mask, every young person or pensioner.
What's their fucking problem? Put on a mask you absurd, mooing cows.
I was at that very Sainsbury's earlier in the day, similar observation, though I'd extend that to older, overweight men as well.
Have to say this idea of students staying at uni over Xmas is terrible. If we know this far in advance then surely we can stockpile tests and provide them with tests should they want to go home. This is the first misstep in Sturgeon's messaging IMO.
The messaging seems wrong to me. You don't get the nation to comply with the rules by threatening them with the rozzers / fines.
Again, this is where the Boris evening address failed. He has completely forgotten how to connect to people, explaining why mask wearing is a necessity and that people shouldn't lie about health conditions to avoid them because all they are doing is risking the health of all those around them and themselves. Appealing to decency always works better than fines, have the fines and start enforcing them and let word filter out that fines are being enforced, don't threaten people on national TV, it just pushes people further into their chosen corners.
He needed this speech:
Today I'm speaking to the nation to address the latest stage of this crisis, unfortunately things haven't gone as we'd hoped and we are facing a serious situation as a nation.
This means we stand at the precipice of a second national lockdown, this is something all of us want to avoid, especially over the Christmas period when spending time with family is so important, more important than normal after such a wretched year. In order to avoid this from happening the government is taking steps to increase the amount of testing available, sadly we're at a point in time where demand is around 4x higher than available tests, there is no amount of testing capacity we can put in place in the short to medium term that can handle this level of demand.
To bring demand down to manageable levels I'm asking everyone in the country to be responsible and only request a test if you have virus symptoms or have been contacted by NHS test and trace. The specific symptoms to look out for are having a high temperature, a persistent dry cough and a loss in one's sense of taste and smell. If you have a temperature and one of the other symptoms please do book a test and we will ensure you get one as soon as possible, if you have other symptoms such a sneezing or a cough which produces phlegm please don't request a test, in order to avoid any confusion we are going to be adding temperature checks at all community testing centres, if you don't have a high temperature or an NHS test and trace appointment you will be turned away from the centre regardless of any self-certifed appointments booked online. We ask that you do not argue with or abuse the staff who turn you away.
I know this is all very bad news and I wish I had some good news to share with everyone, but unfortunately there isn't any at the moment. However, I know that the spirit of the British people remains undimmed and we will beat this together as a nation.
I'd vote for you.
A bit of honesty is long overdue from this government.
The nub of it is that honesty is seen as a sign of weakness. Just look on PB to see how often (ie not often at all) a poster says "yes you're right I hadn't looked at it like that" and multiply it 1,000 times for politicians.
Which of course means it's our, the voting public's fault because that's who we vote for.
It's trite and obvious, but the old saying that we get the politicians we deserve is hard to dispute.
It doesn't absolve them of any political sins, but they've been encouraged to sin by us.
Odd observation in a large north London Sainsbury's, today
About 95% mask compliance. BUT several people were not complying.
They were ALL middle aged women aged 35-60. Some with kids, some not, all ethnicities, but all women in that age bracket. Every male was wearing a mask, every young person or pensioner.
What's their fucking problem? Put on a mask you absurd, mooing cows.
I was at that very Sainsbury's earlier in the day, similar observation, though I'd extend that to older, overweight men as well.
I didn't see a single man without a mask but fair enough (some of the guys were wearing them wrongly, however)
I don't get it. Why does this cohort of middle aged women think they can just ignore the rules, the law, the basic act of common decency that is wearing a face covering, in a large shop? Everyone else obeys,
Fantastic campaigning by Johnson. He really is a magnificent election campaigner.
He is, but if Private Eye don't do a cover with a speech bubble saying "sorry Sir, the suspect needs to sit in the back seat", they're missing a trick.
My tongue was firmly in my cheek. It might be nice if our PM was doing genuine work other than photo- ops.
It might be nice if he was wearing a mask like the rest of us are ordered to do. Lead by example...
Have to say this idea of students staying at uni over Xmas is terrible. If we know this far in advance then surely we can stockpile tests and provide them with tests should they want to go home. This is the first misstep in Sturgeon's messaging IMO.
Lock up the lepers.
I know the politicians are making a complete mess of all this, but that's a bit harsh on them.
Yeah I’ve noticed this for the past few months when using the iOS 14 beta.
Weirdly it does not happen on my iPad running iPad OS 14.
Almost impossible to read or post on my phone.. I thought that might have been a new feature!
Don't switch tabs or app while the page is loading. If you do, iOS shuts down the Javascript that loads the comments and you get left with the 'loading' blobs.
It's not since the site upgrade, I think it's more a prob with my phone. Although this is the only site I have probs with. I use vanilla community page, and it takes forever to load the topic/discussion, then sometime I only see 2/3 comments. Only telling you this to help, I am not complaining
Yeah, those are the same symptoms as me. Suspect our phones just aren't up to snuff.
I'm having the same problem on a relatively recent phone (iphone XR). I think it is some poorly written javascript
Well this is very possible/likely.
I'm not sure the logic behind loading every Tweet, I would have implemented lazy loading or selective loading.
I would imagine that few sites using Vanilla load a few hundred Twitter references at a time, so lazy programming took over from lazy loading.
This seems very likely - I wonder if selective loading is supported and whether it can be enabled. I am not familiar with Vanilla beyond this website.
Odd observation in a large north London Sainsbury's, today
About 95% mask compliance. BUT several people were not complying.
They were ALL middle aged women aged 35-60. Some with kids, some not, all ethnicities, but all women in that age bracket. Every male was wearing a mask, every young person or pensioner.
What's their fucking problem? Put on a mask you absurd, mooing cows.
I was at that very Sainsbury's earlier in the day, similar observation, though I'd extend that to older, overweight men as well.
I didn't see a single man without a mask but fair enough (some of the guys were wearing them wrongly, however)
I don't get it. Why does this cohort of middle aged women think they can just ignore the rules, the law, the basic act of common decency that is wearing a face covering, in a large shop? Everyone else obeys,
Time to start tasering these entitled heifers.
Sean so you're a woman in your current iteration? Fascinating
It's just idle speculation but given that some other countries are beginning to let reasonable numbers of fans back in (10,000 at Misano for the Moto GP, 30,000 expected at Sochi for the F1 this weekend, albeit not clear if that's over the 3 days or just race day itself, with Portugal and Germany expecting decent-ish numbers of fans in too), is any sport predominantly based in this country going to think that maybe decamping elsewhere to get even a small-ish number of fans in the door for a few events/rounds of fixtures is worthwhile?
Yeah, Trump said yesterday he wasn't going to peacefully stand down and would rely on a crooked Supreme Court or keep him in power and the American Media have treated it like no big deal.
Oh for goodness sake, if Trump wins then Trump wins America is not going to disapprear, left liberals need to actually have a positive reason to vote for them not just decrying Trump as the antichrist.
In any case 16 years after a Republican last won the EC and popular vote it may just be the cycle coincides with Trump's re election. This election increasingly resembles 2004, the left loathe the President but their campaign is based solely on negativity, there is no great enthusiasm for Biden just as there was no great enthusiasm for Kerry
Oh for goodness sake, if Trump wins then Trump wins America is not going to disapprear, left liberals need to actually have a positive reason to vote for them not just decrying Trump as the antichrist.
In any case 16 years after a Republican last won the EC and popular vote it may just be the cycle coincides with Trump's re election. This election increasingly resembles 2004, the left loathe the President but their campaign is based solely on negativity, there is no great enthusiasm for Biden just as there was no great enthusiasm for Kerry
Yeah, Trump said yesterday he wasn't going to peacefully stand down and would rely on a crooked Supreme Court or keep him in power and the American Media have treated it like no big deal.
Truly astounding failure of systems.
I veer between 'it'll be alright, the constitution will cope and remove him if he loses' and 'it'll take a civil war to get him out'.
Fantastic campaigning by Johnson. He really is a magnificent election campaigner.
He is, but if Private Eye don't do a cover with a speech bubble saying "sorry Sir, the suspect needs to sit in the back seat", they're missing a trick.
My tongue was firmly in my cheek. It might be nice if our PM was doing genuine work other than photo- ops.
It might be nice if he was wearing a mask like the rest of us are ordered to do. Lead by example...
Above the law?
Apparently so....
At least he wasn't wearing yet another bloody hard hat and hi-viz.
Yeah, Trump said yesterday he wasn't going to peacefully stand down and would rely on a crooked Supreme Court or keep him in power and the American Media have treated it like no big deal.
Truly astounding failure of systems.
I veer between 'it'll be alright, the constitution will cope and remove him if he loses' and 'it'll take a civil war to get him out'.
If it comes to the Supreme Court, then the question is:
Do the members of the Supreme Court wish to be seen as the people who saved the Republic? Or can Trump offer them more?
The SC has been remarkably united in ruling on Presidential issues. John Roberts has done an incredible job of making it clear that unity matters in issues of state.
I also have little doubt that he knows that ruling the right way will ensure his place in the history books. (I also think Gorsuch - read his tribal lands ruling - thinks similarly.)
Oh for goodness sake, if Trump wins then Trump wins America is not going to disapprear, left liberals need to actually have a positive reason to vote for them not just decrying Trump as the antichrist.
In any case 16 years after a Republican last won the EC and popular vote it may just be the cycle coincides with Trump's re election. This election increasingly resembles 2004, the left loathe the President but their campaign is based solely on negativity, there is no great enthusiasm for Biden just as there was no great enthusiasm for Kerry
Kristol is not exactly a left liberal !!!!
He did though oppose Trump in 2016 just as he does now
I think Rishi is too young at the moment and would like to get some experience before he goes for it
The youth doesn't worry me.
He is urbane, the work ethic, the intellect and the coherent communication are so much more impressive than Johnson, and to cap it all he gives us lots and lots of free stuff. He will cause Starmer a massive problem for a while.
However, when one drills down, Sunak is an enthusiastic Brexiteer and quite right wing. He won't be getting my vote.
However, when one drills down, Sunak is an enthusiastic Brexiteer and quite right wing. He won't be getting my vote.
Although as HYUFD would be the first to say, anyone wanting to be Tory leader within the next ten years would have to be, so it could just be careerism and not reflective of his real views.
Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.
Yeah, Trump said yesterday he wasn't going to peacefully stand down and would rely on a crooked Supreme Court or keep him in power and the American Media have treated it like no big deal.
Truly astounding failure of systems.
The Atlantic has a very good article about what sort of things we should expect if Trump refuses to concede.
Oh for goodness sake, if Trump wins then Trump wins America is not going to disapprear, left liberals need to actually have a positive reason to vote for them not just decrying Trump as the antichrist.
In any case 16 years after a Republican last won the EC and popular vote it may just be the cycle coincides with Trump's re election. This election increasingly resembles 2004, the left loathe the President but their campaign is based solely on negativity, there is no great enthusiasm for Biden just as there was no great enthusiasm for Kerry
I would have thought that anyone wishing the US ill would be hoping for a Trump win - 4 more years of divisive, dysfunctional government. Putin doesn't want Trump to win because he likes him, he wants him to win because it weakens and disrupts America.
Oh for goodness sake, if Trump wins then Trump wins America is not going to disapprear, left liberals need to actually have a positive reason to vote for them not just decrying Trump as the antichrist.
In any case 16 years after a Republican last won the EC and popular vote it may just be the cycle coincides with Trump's re election. This election increasingly resembles 2004, the left loathe the President but their campaign is based solely on negativity, there is no great enthusiasm for Biden just as there was no great enthusiasm for Kerry
Kristol is not exactly a left liberal !!!!
He did though oppose Trump in 2016 just as he does now
He is one of the few sane conservatives left in America frankly as the vast majority of GOP allows itself to be turned into the anti-democratic Trump personality cult.
However, when one drills down, Sunak is an enthusiastic Brexiteer and quite right wing. He won't be getting my vote.
Although as HYUFD would be the first to say, anyone wanting to be Tory leader within the next ten years would have to be, so it could just be careerism and not reflective of his real views.
Maybe.
I am not entirely sure he has done himself a great service today. Quite honest in many respects, it is nonetheless a long way from the giveaway six months ago and Johnson's Tiggeresque enthusiasm throughout the pandemic.
It seems too obviously done just to show that he is different from Corbyn to me, and I'd say comes across as a bit patronising and insincere as a consequence
Odd observation in a large north London Sainsbury's, today
About 95% mask compliance. BUT several people were not complying.
They were ALL middle aged women aged 35-60. Some with kids, some not, all ethnicities, but all women in that age bracket. Every male was wearing a mask, every young person or pensioner.
What's their fucking problem? Put on a mask you absurd, mooing cows.
I was at that very Sainsbury's earlier in the day, similar observation, though I'd extend that to older, overweight men as well.
This is a genuine photo from Aldi in Leicester though:
Yeah, Trump said yesterday he wasn't going to peacefully stand down and would rely on a crooked Supreme Court or keep him in power and the American Media have treated it like no big deal.
Truly astounding failure of systems.
The Atlantic has a very good article about what sort of things we should expect if Trump refuses to concede.
If the American political media was vaguely competent they would be getting an on the record statement from every Republican state governor and Secretary of state saying whether they would or would not go along with this plan.
Oh for goodness sake, if Trump wins then Trump wins America is not going to disapprear, left liberals need to actually have a positive reason to vote for them not just decrying Trump as the antichrist.
In any case 16 years after a Republican last won the EC and popular vote it may just be the cycle coincides with Trump's re election. This election increasingly resembles 2004, the left loathe the President but their campaign is based solely on negativity, there is no great enthusiasm for Biden just as there was no great enthusiasm for Kerry
I would have thought that anyone wishing the US ill would be hoping for a Trump win - 4 more years of divisive, dysfunctional government. Putin doesn't want Trump to win because he likes him, he wants him to win because it weakens and disrupts America.
Well Boris wants Trump to win now I expect as he wants a FTA, however whatever the rest of the world thinks it is up to Americans to decide and generally I would advise the Democrats that elections are not won on what you are against and negativity but on optimism and charisma and postitivity
It seems too obviously done just to show that he is different from Corbyn to me, and I'd say comes across as a bit patronising and insincere as a consequence
It is pretty obvious though that he is different to Corbyn though. Not least in his ambition for power.
Recap of SNP selections for 2021 Holyrood elections (constituency level)
SNP won 59 constituencies in 2016
2 MSPs have been expelled/suspended: Mark McDonald, Derek MacKay
14 MSPs retiring: Bruce Crawford, Richard Lyle, Gail Ross, Michael Russell, Stewart Stevenson, Ailleen Campbell, Angus MacDonald, Gil Paterson. Linda Fabiani, Roseanna Cunningham, Alex Neil, Jeane Freeman, Sandra White, Maureen Watt
10 MSPs are challenged for the party nomination (according to The National): Fergus Ewing (Inverness and Nairn), Shirley-Anne Sommerville ( Dunfermline and West Fife), Ash Denham (Edinburgh Eastern), Christine Grahame (Midlothian South, etc), Colin Beattie (Midlothian North and Musselburgh), Kenny Gibson (Cunninghame North), James Dornan (Glasgow Cathcart), David Torrance (Kirkcaldy), Stuart McMillan (Greenock and Inverclyde), John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston)
33 MSPs are unopposed in the party selection: Fulton MacGregor, Jamie Hepburn, Michael Matheson, Christina McKelvie, Clare Adamson, Bill Kidd,Bob Doris, Humza Yousaf,Ivan McKee, Nicola Sturgeon, Clare Haughey, Alasdair Allan, Kate Forbes, Angela Constance, Ben Macpherson, Gordon MacDonald, Fiona Hyslop, Keith Brown, Annabelle Ewing, Jenny Gilruth, John Swinney, Bruce Crawford, Kevin Stewart, Gillian Martin, Mairi Evans, Graeme Dey, Shona Robison, Joe Fitzpatrick, Willie Coffey, Ruth Maguire, George Adam, Tom Arthur, Rona Mackay.
I think Rishi is too young at the moment and would like to get some experience before he goes for it
What more experience can he get than being Chancellor of the Exchequer during an economic crisis?
He's been an MP longer than Cameron was when Cameron became Tory leader and has far more Ministerial experience than Cameron had when he became PM.
Bear in mind though that the crisis so far has been traumatic but simple- just turn on the b****** taps to maximum. Turning off the taps with as little trauma as possible is the next step. Today is a promising start, but no more than that. We need to see how he copes with that.
And whilst Rishi has been an MP for five years, bear in mind that he's being suggested for PM, not LotO. There's no chance to get up to speed once in the saddle as PM; it hits you from day one.
Bear in mind also that Cam had been in front row politics long before he became an MP. He was a candidate in 1997, Norman Lamont's SPAD on Black Wednesday, and had been prepping John Major for PMQs in 1991.
One of BoJo's problems is that, whilst he's done a variety of things, his CV hasn't really prepared him for the sheer slog of being PM. (Foreign Secretary traditionally goes to an ornamental old codger on the way out.) Sunak, whilst he's definitely got the talent and right attitude, needs more time in the County game before becoming Test captain. Both for his sake and (more importantly) for our's.
Oh for goodness sake, if Trump wins then Trump wins America is not going to disapprear, left liberals need to actually have a positive reason to vote for them not just decrying Trump as the antichrist.
In any case 16 years after a Republican last won the EC and popular vote it may just be the cycle coincides with Trump's re election. This election increasingly resembles 2004, the left loathe the President but their campaign is based solely on negativity, there is no great enthusiasm for Biden just as there was no great enthusiasm for Kerry
I would have thought that anyone wishing the US ill would be hoping for a Trump win - 4 more years of divisive, dysfunctional government. Putin doesn't want Trump to win because he likes him, he wants him to win because it weakens and disrupts America.
But if he does win clearly the left can't spend another 4 years complaining about it.
Oh for goodness sake, if Trump wins then Trump wins America is not going to disapprear, left liberals need to actually have a positive reason to vote for them not just decrying Trump as the antichrist.
In any case 16 years after a Republican last won the EC and popular vote it may just be the cycle coincides with Trump's re election. This election increasingly resembles 2004, the left loathe the President but their campaign is based solely on negativity, there is no great enthusiasm for Biden just as there was no great enthusiasm for Kerry
I would have thought that anyone wishing the US ill would be hoping for a Trump win - 4 more years of divisive, dysfunctional government. Putin doesn't want Trump to win because he likes him, he wants him to win because it weakens and disrupts America.
But if he does win clearly the left can't spend another 4 years complaining about it.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54289162
These efforts are probably going to fall flat on their collective arse, of course, but even if they don't they're going to take so long that we'll all be bankrupt before the work is complete. So instead of a few thousand of us having died of Covid most of us will perish as a result of societal collapse and famine. I can hardly wait.
Hopefully we'll vaccinate the whole population once we've got something at say 65% efficacy and not just the vulnerable and elderly (Though they will be done first doubtless). We seem to have bought enough to do so I think !
The UK government's response has been risible in many important ways. And as a nation, we do need to recalibrate our expectations. But the main thing we have to think about is whether we can expect everything to happen now now NOW. A vaccine next summer seems reasonable-to-cautious. That's a major nasty disease appearing, then broadly ceasing to be a problem, in a year and a half. World War II knocked people's lives out of shape far more and for far longer. It's a horrible economic setback, especially for those whose health or career plans have gone through the mincer. The worst in almost all of our lifetimes. But we are still a prosperous generation in a wealthy country. (If you don't think so, where and when would you rather be?)
Any other generation of humanity would think we are wizards, and that our (terrible) government has achieved remarkable things. We're still incredibly lucky to be alive here and now.
Independent 18 April 2020
Not a gotcha, but a corrective to any claim that there has been no slippage in vaccine predictions.
Twitter loads post page load anyway. To be fair it's slow to load Twitter as well but the main page loading is the main slow bit that I referred to.
The messaging seems wrong to me. You don't get the nation to comply with the rules by threatening them with the rozzers / fines.
I'm sure your legendary Scotch political commentary will be sustaining its exemplary record.
That numerical ignorance is widespread, including amongst scientists, is very well known, even amongst the Germans.
"In a survey, 1000 Germans were asked what ‘40%’ means: one quarter, 4 out of 10 or every 40th person. About one third of responders did not chose the right answer". Calculated Risk
And from How Risk Is It Really?:
Which is more likely, 1 in 100, 1 in 1,000, or 1 in 10? (20% got this wrong)
Let’s say you buy an “I’m Feeling Lucky!” lottery scratch ticket. One player in 1,000 wins. So, what percentage of those folks are going to feel lucky after they scratch off the ticket? (80% got this wrong)
Let’s say you buy an “I Am Going To Be Filthy Stinking Rich!” lottery ticket. One percent of the “investors” in this game win the big prize. If 1,000 people play this game, how many people end up filthy stinking rich? (40% got this wrong)
If you take one die from a set and roll it 1,000 times, how many times would it come up on an even number (2, 4, or 6)? (45% got this wrong)
"When testing 200,000 people every day for Covid, the risk of EBV-generated [Glandular fever] false positives (or other false positives from other viruses) potentially start to matter a very great deal.
The UK has now done 20 million tests and continues to test over 200,000 a day. It is not known whether there are other viruses that can mistakenly generate a positive Covid test result on rare occasions. When testing at the rate we are, even a 5% chance of producing false positives from other viruses in this way becomes highly significant, especially if there are co-infections."
https://lockdownsceptics.org/flu-like-illnesses/
I'm not sure the logic behind loading every Tweet, I would have implemented lazy loading or selective loading.
764 requests to load this thread.
Bunch of 403s on various requests.......
With that lot, it is rather surprising that the thread loads at all.....
Lady's G's patented Covid Rule 1
He needed this speech:
Today I'm speaking to the nation to address the latest stage of this crisis, unfortunately things haven't gone as we'd hoped and we are facing a serious situation as a nation.
This means we stand at the precipice of a second national lockdown, this is something all of us want to avoid, especially over the Christmas period when spending time with family is so important, more important than normal after such a wretched year. In order to avoid this from happening the government is taking steps to increase the amount of testing available, sadly we're at a point in time where demand is around 4x higher than available tests, there is no amount of testing capacity we can put in place in the short to medium term that can handle this level of demand.
To bring demand down to manageable levels I'm asking everyone in the country to be responsible and only request a test if you have virus symptoms or have been contacted by NHS test and trace. The specific symptoms to look out for are having a high temperature, a persistent dry cough and a loss in one's sense of taste and smell. If you have a temperature and one of the other symptoms please do book a test and we will ensure you get one as soon as possible, if you have other symptoms such a sneezing or a cough which produces phlegm please don't request a test, in order to avoid any confusion we are going to be adding temperature checks at all community testing centres, if you don't have a high temperature or an NHS test and trace appointment you will be turned away from the centre regardless of any self-certifed appointments booked online. We ask that you do not argue with or abuse the staff who turn you away.
I know this is all very bad news and I wish I had some good news to share with everyone, but unfortunately there isn't any at the moment. However, I know that the spirit of the British people remains undimmed and we will beat this together as a nation.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1309220967101739018
Hat. Coat. Exit....
A bit of honesty is long overdue from this government.
The nub of it is that honesty is seen as a sign of weakness. Just look on PB to see how often (ie not often at all) a poster says "yes you're right I hadn't looked at it like that" and multiply it 1,000 times for politicians.
Which of course means it's our, the voting public's fault because that's who we vote for.
This is potentially a rough couple of weeks incoming, the calculated Rs for flu go from increasing slowly above 21C to increasing rapidly below 18C daytime max and Corona isn't contradicting that. The north has been a little below that transition for a slight majority of the last 5 weeks, and now the south is below 18C for a full week. I'd not be surprised if by the week of 5th October the South and London is in a rapidly worsening position.
I don't think it will be lockdown at that stage, but further restrictions could be needed quite early.
Looking to PHE tomorrow, I reckon we're looking mainly at extending the geography and depths of current lockdowns - Wigan, Blackpool and parts of Cheshire into regs, maybe Leeds this time, perhaps tighter restrictions still on Manchester, Salford, Bolton. Overall expect more adjustment in NW than in NE or York's or Midlands. And perhaps Redbridge as the first London area of concern.
Is Johnson 21st c. version of king who outlawed the rising tide (also gravitational)? Though THAT Cnut actually knew better.
You say that he's lacking in experience, to which I say: you're having a giraffe.
Being Chancellor of the Exchequer at the best of times is a lot of experience in one go. Doing so during the biggest economic crisis of the past 300 years is a baptism of fire. He will sink or swim and there's no time for looking back. It seems like he's swimming.
The step up from mere MP to LOTO/PM is one thing, the step up from Chancellor of the Exchequer to PM is something else entirely.
The last thing he's lacking now is experience.
PS David Cameron only took his seat in Witney in 2001 and became Leader of his party in 2005. Sunak took his seat in Richmond in 2015 so has already been an MPlonger than Cameron was.
About 95% mask compliance. BUT several people were not complying.
They were ALL middle aged women aged 35-60. Some with kids, some not, all ethnicities, but all women in that age bracket. Every male was wearing a mask, every young person or pensioner.
What's their fucking problem? Put on a mask you absurd, mooing cows.
I was at that very Sainsbury's earlier in the day, similar observation, though I'd extend that to older, overweight men as well.
It doesn't absolve them of any political sins, but they've been encouraged to sin by us.
I don't get it. Why does this cohort of middle aged women think they can just ignore the rules, the law, the basic act of common decency that is wearing a face covering, in a large shop? Everyone else obeys,
Time to start tasering these entitled heifers.
Or is that just more hassle than its worth?
Truly astounding failure of systems.
In any case 16 years after a Republican last won the EC and popular vote it may just be the cycle coincides with Trump's re election. This election increasingly resembles 2004, the left loathe the President but their campaign is based solely on negativity, there is no great enthusiasm for Biden just as there was no great enthusiasm for Kerry
This is the Labour we all want to see.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/google-ceo-sundar-pichai-considering-hybrid-work-from-home-models.html
Perhaps that's tomorrow's photo op.
Meanwhile Gove and Cummings run the country.
Do the members of the Supreme Court wish to be seen as the people who saved the Republic? Or can Trump offer them more?
The SC has been remarkably united in ruling on Presidential issues. John Roberts has done an incredible job of making it clear that unity matters in issues of state.
I also have little doubt that he knows that ruling the right way will ensure his place in the history books. (I also think Gorsuch - read his tribal lands ruling - thinks similarly.)
He is urbane, the work ethic, the intellect and the coherent communication are so much more impressive than Johnson, and to cap it all he gives us lots and lots of free stuff. He will cause Starmer a massive problem for a while.
However, when one drills down, Sunak is an enthusiastic Brexiteer and quite right wing. He won't be getting my vote.
He's been an MP longer than Cameron was when Cameron became Tory leader and has far more Ministerial experience than Cameron had when he became PM.
The Election That Could Break America
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/
I am not entirely sure he has done himself a great service today. Quite honest in many respects, it is nonetheless a long way from the giveaway six months ago and Johnson's Tiggeresque enthusiasm throughout the pandemic.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1309239422420910081
Looks like @Byronic is in the East Midlands...
SNP won 59 constituencies in 2016
2 MSPs have been expelled/suspended: Mark McDonald, Derek MacKay
14 MSPs retiring: Bruce Crawford, Richard Lyle, Gail Ross, Michael Russell, Stewart Stevenson, Ailleen Campbell, Angus MacDonald, Gil Paterson. Linda Fabiani, Roseanna Cunningham, Alex Neil, Jeane Freeman, Sandra White, Maureen Watt
10 MSPs are challenged for the party nomination (according to The National): Fergus Ewing (Inverness and Nairn), Shirley-Anne Sommerville ( Dunfermline and West Fife), Ash Denham (Edinburgh Eastern), Christine Grahame (Midlothian South, etc), Colin Beattie (Midlothian North and Musselburgh), Kenny Gibson (Cunninghame North), James Dornan (Glasgow Cathcart), David Torrance (Kirkcaldy), Stuart McMillan (Greenock and Inverclyde), John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston)
33 MSPs are unopposed in the party selection:
Fulton MacGregor, Jamie Hepburn, Michael Matheson, Christina McKelvie, Clare Adamson, Bill Kidd,Bob Doris, Humza Yousaf,Ivan McKee, Nicola Sturgeon, Clare Haughey, Alasdair Allan, Kate Forbes, Angela Constance, Ben Macpherson, Gordon MacDonald, Fiona Hyslop, Keith Brown, Annabelle Ewing, Jenny Gilruth, John Swinney, Bruce Crawford, Kevin Stewart, Gillian Martin, Mairi Evans, Graeme Dey, Shona Robison, Joe Fitzpatrick, Willie Coffey, Ruth Maguire, George Adam, Tom Arthur, Rona Mackay.
And whilst Rishi has been an MP for five years, bear in mind that he's being suggested for PM, not LotO. There's no chance to get up to speed once in the saddle as PM; it hits you from day one.
Bear in mind also that Cam had been in front row politics long before he became an MP. He was a candidate in 1997, Norman Lamont's SPAD on Black Wednesday, and had been prepping John Major for PMQs in 1991.
One of BoJo's problems is that, whilst he's done a variety of things, his CV hasn't really prepared him for the sheer slog of being PM. (Foreign Secretary traditionally goes to an ornamental old codger on the way out.) Sunak, whilst he's definitely got the talent and right attitude, needs more time in the County game before becoming Test captain. Both for his sake and (more importantly) for our's.