One set of our neighbours both work at the University of Sheffield, I'm right in thinking I'm legally allowed to weld their house shut until after the end of term?
Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.
He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.
But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.
In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.
Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
His problem is while Blair and Cameron were not much older than he is both took over as leader after 3 or more election defeats for their party and years out of power and therefore seemed fresh and new.
If Sunak takes over it will be after at least a decade of the Tories in power so he cannot be that fresh and new, his best bet is to be a John Major figure and hope he avoids being David Miliband
Yup. And John Major had been an MP for a decade, short stints as Foreign Secretary and Chancellor, a longer run as Chief Sec, and a spell as a whip, which meant seeing everything. Oh, and time as Chair of Housing in a London Borough back when that was a big job. And a couple of election defeats before he got the Huntingdon seat.
In short, a lot more political experience.
Rishi is good, but you can't microwave experience. (And yes, if the government needs fresh urgently, it needs to be from outside the government. If Boris falls apart, it has to be someone uncompromised, which means Hunt. He'll still lose in 2024, though.)
Agreed. Rishi needs to play the long game to become PM after a spell out of office for the Tories.
(I'd be happy to see him become PM when he's in his 80s )
The irony is so many anti HMG want Boris gone (as do I) but worry that the new kid on the block (Rishi) may eclipse Keir and lead to another 4 years of conservative government post 2024 .
It's not irony Big_G, it's commonsense if like me you want to see left-leaning policies.
Btw I am not anti-HMG, just anti this HMG ;-)
I do not want to see a labour government unless it tacks to a Blairite one
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.
I believe the AZ number - I think that race is a lot closer than people think.
The Georgia number is barely believable - it's almost incomprehensible to me that Biden would be seven points clear there.
I don't believe the New Mexico number the other way. While rural AZ was full of Trump-Pence posters, rural NM is full of (rather small) Biden-Harris ones. Simply, NM is a lot more Hispanic than AZ. And these aren't Cuban Americans. Plus Albuquerque is a third of the population of New Mexico. Add in Santa Fe (so Democrat it makes your teeth hurt) and Taos and you have demographics that will be very hard for Trump to break down. I'd reckon Biden will win by 10 to 12 points.
Nevada could be close this year, as it's more like Arizona than NM. If the rural vote comes out, it could be close. But I'd still expect Biden to win it.
I don't expect Biden to win Ohio or Missouri.
The numbers are all way too close. Trump and Biden between 45 and 52 in that entire basket of states. Really ?
SurveyMonkey are rated D- by 538. The only polsters rated lower by them are are banned.
I don't think we should place too much weight on these figures.
538 weight it down because of a lack of use of demographics and other stratification.
But it is a useful cross check against those pollsters whose own weightings create as much trouble as they save!
For me the most interesting poll of the last few days was that of the Trafalgar Group which put Biden two points up in PA. They were one of only 2 pollsters who correctly called PA for Trump back in 2016 and adjust their polls for what they say is "social desirability" bias i.e. the shy Trump voter. Whether or not you believe in the shy Trump voter. it's telling that a pollster that does believe in it, and adjusts its polls accordingly, has Biden winning in Pennsylvania.
Scottish government says Sunak's job support scheme 'disappointing' and doesn't go far enough
The same government that is a car crash for education and has the biggest drugs epidemic in Europe with one person sadly dying every day from drug abuse
Considering the first graph is flat from April til today it can't be Barnard Castle, Test or Trace or anything since April. It's been completely consistent.
So yes freedom loving and lack of tough enforcement it likely is.
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
I thought 1% seems extraordinarily high for a suicide rate but apparently not. In 2019 the UK suicide rate was 11.4 per 100k or 5319 deaths in England. There were approximately 500k deaths in England that year so the rate was just over 1% of deaths. I would not have guessed that.
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
The life expectancy needs to take into account when said poets were living but 'troubled artist' meme surely has some basis in fact.
Wikipedia even has a few category pages for this phenomena.
Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.
He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.
But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.
In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.
Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
His problem is while Blair and Cameron were not much older than he is both took over as leader after 3 or more election defeats for their party and years out of power and therefore seemed fresh and new.
If Sunak takes over it will be after at least a decade of the Tories in power so he cannot be that fresh and new, his best bet is to be a John Major figure and hope he avoids being David Miliband
Yup. And John Major had been an MP for a decade, short stints as Foreign Secretary and Chancellor, a longer run as Chief Sec, and a spell as a whip, which meant seeing everything. Oh, and time as Chair of Housing in a London Borough back when that was a big job. And a couple of election defeats before he got the Huntingdon seat.
In short, a lot more political experience.
Rishi is good, but you can't microwave experience. (And yes, if the government needs fresh urgently, it needs to be from outside the government. If Boris falls apart, it has to be someone uncompromised, which means Hunt. He'll still lose in 2024, though.)
Agreed. Rishi needs to play the long game to become PM after a spell out of office for the Tories.
(I'd be happy to see him become PM when he's in his 80s )
The irony is so many anti HMG want Boris gone (as do I) but worry that the new kid on the block (Rishi) may eclipse Keir and lead to another 4 years of conservative government post 2024 .
The analogy is worn to death, but I would be quite happy to see Johnson as Chamberlain (although that does Chamberlain a massive disservice) replaced by Sunak as Churchill with Starmer waiting to step in to play the Atlee role in 2024.
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
Not surprising. Sylvia Plath comes to mind.
I'm surprised, I confess. I already know that creatives -especially poets, maybe - have a notably greater tendency to mental disturbance, drug abuse, alcoholism, and so on, but 20%?! 1 in 5??
Following up on Lady G's comments on China on the last thread, I'm currently reading Bob Woodward's "Rage" and the thing that really quite surprisingly caught my attention was a comment from Mark Pottinger who was Deputy National Security adviser at the time of the outbreak. Pottinger is not a right wing loony, speaks fluent Mandarin and has excellent contacts in China, having lived there for seven years. He has written about 30 articles on SARS.
His information from several Chinese elites it was that the government understood how serious the virus was and how harsh the economic consequences would be. He goes on to say that the Chinese then deliberately concealed the seriousness of the outbreak in order to let it spread out across the rest of the world to ensure that they were not the only ones that were economically disadvantaged.
In other words they kept quiet in order that "China was not going to be the only one to suffer this"
Sounds highly plausible to me although it could never be "proved"one way or the other although it's pretty clear China hid information trying to prove motive for doing so would be very difficult.
You are entirely free to believe that the Chinese were fully upfront with what they knew and when they knew it. Hasn't it been widely accepted now that the information from Taiwan to the WHO in the early weeks of the outbreak censored by the Chinese?
You are also free to believe the Chinese death and infection figures.
I've no idea if the Chinese were fully upfront with what they knew and when they knew it, but it is a simple fact that at least one paper was published by Chinese researchers in the medical literature, in January, warning of the pandemic potential of the virus. They warned us it was on the way. Maybe they could have warned us sooner, but it's obviously wrong to claim that they tried to keep it secret until it had spread to Europe.
Also - given how massively dependent the Chinese economy is on exports to Europe and the US, it would seem that screwing those countries over would be a clear net negative for China.
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
Not surprising. Sylvia Plath comes to mind.
I'm surprised, I confess. I already know that creatives -especially poets, maybe - have a notably greater tendency to mental disturbance, drug abuse, alcoholism, and so on, but 20%?! 1 in 5??
The Democrats should be very relieved that those younger (more Trump friendly) voters don't seem very motivated to vote!
Yes, but terrifying for long term trends. As the generations shaped by the civil rights movement die off the "inevitability of demographic change" becomes a lot less inevitable.
There are always things pushing in different directions, which is why demographic inevitability arguments tend to be utter bullshit.
One set of our neighbours both work at the University of Sheffield, I'm right in thinking I'm legally allowed to weld their house shut until after the end of term?
If you read the nonsense about the implications of renewing the Covid Act you may conclude that is one of your lesser options.
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
The life expectancy needs to take into account when said poets were living but 'troubled artist' meme surely has some basis in fact.
Wikipedia even has a few category pages for this phenomena.
Florida is one of a very small group of states where the number of Registered Republicans is rising. It also had great results for the Republicans at the midterms.
That suggests to me that it is likely to be a better relative performer for Trump than many other states.
The big question - to me - is the impact of the felon vote, especially with Bloomberg paying off fines for felons!
One set of our neighbours both work at the University of Sheffield, I'm right in thinking I'm legally allowed to weld their house shut until after the end of term?
If you read the nonsense about the implications of renewing the Covid Act you may conclude that is one of your lesser options.
Have to admit living in the equivalent of Pinochet's Chile is a bit of a disappointment, the lack of round ups of political opponents and those who put pineapple on pizza is a real disappointment.
Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.
I believe the AZ number - I think that race is a lot closer than people think.
The Georgia number is barely believable - it's almost incomprehensible to me that Biden would be seven points clear there.
I don't believe the New Mexico number the other way. While rural AZ was full of Trump-Pence posters, rural NM is full of (rather small) Biden-Harris ones. Simply, NM is a lot more Hispanic than AZ. And these aren't Cuban Americans. Plus Albuquerque is a third of the population of New Mexico. Add in Santa Fe (so Democrat it makes your teeth hurt) and Taos and you have demographics that will be very hard for Trump to break down. I'd reckon Biden will win by 10 to 12 points.
Nevada could be close this year, as it's more like Arizona than NM. If the rural vote comes out, it could be close. But I'd still expect Biden to win it.
I don't expect Biden to win Ohio or Missouri.
The numbers are all way too close. Trump and Biden between 45 and 52 in that entire basket of states. Really ?
SurveyMonkey are rated D- by 538. The only polsters rated lower by them are are banned.
I don't think we should place too much weight on these figures.
538 weight it down because of a lack of use of demographics and other stratification.
But it is a useful cross check against those pollsters whose own weightings create as much trouble as they save!
For me the most interesting poll of the last few days was that of the Trafalgar Group which put Biden two points up in PA. They were one of only 2 pollsters who correctly called PA for Trump back in 2016 and adjust their polls for what they say is "social desirability" bias i.e. the shy Trump voter. Whether or not you believe in the shy Trump voter. it's telling that a pollster that does believe in it, and adjusts its polls accordingly, has Biden winning in Pennsylvania.
Yeah, they also had Trump winning the 18-24 year old vote by some distance in their 2016 polls
One set of our neighbours both work at the University of Sheffield, I'm right in thinking I'm legally allowed to weld their house shut until after the end of term?
If you read the nonsense about the implications of renewing the Covid Act you may conclude that is one of your lesser options.
Have to admit living in the equivalent of Pinochet's Chile is a bit of a disappointment, the lack of round ups of political opponents and those who put pineapple on pizza is a real disappointment.
How would *you* know if they were rounding up the pineapple pizza eaters?
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
I thought 1% seems extraordinarily high for a suicide rate but apparently not. In 2019 the UK suicide rate was 11.4 per 100k or 5319 deaths in England. There were approximately 500k deaths in England that year so the rate was just over 1% of deaths. I would not have guessed that.
The leading cause of death in males under 40, and up 25% this year.
Males tend to use more lethal methods when attempting suicide, and also not call for help.
One set of our neighbours both work at the University of Sheffield, I'm right in thinking I'm legally allowed to weld their house shut until after the end of term?
If you read the nonsense about the implications of renewing the Covid Act you may conclude that is one of your lesser options.
Have to admit living in the equivalent of Pinochet's Chile is a bit of a disappointment, the lack of round ups of political opponents and those who put pineapple on pizza is a real disappointment.
How would *you* know if they were rounding up the pineapple pizza eaters?
Several of my friends fit that degeneracy and aren't locked up.
One set of our neighbours both work at the University of Sheffield, I'm right in thinking I'm legally allowed to weld their house shut until after the end of term?
If you read the nonsense about the implications of renewing the Covid Act you may conclude that is one of your lesser options.
Have to admit living in the equivalent of Pinochet's Chile is a bit of a disappointment, the lack of round ups of political opponents and those who put pineapple on pizza is a real disappointment.
How would *you* know if they were rounding up the pineapple pizza eaters?
Several of my friends fit that degeneracy and aren't locked up.
To really understand pizza you must have eaten one with pineapple on it
The Democrats should be very relieved that those younger (more Trump friendly) voters don't seem very motivated to vote!
Yes, but terrifying for long term trends. As the generations shaped by the civil rights movement die off the "inevitability of demographic change" becomes a lot less inevitable.
There are always things pushing in different directions, which is why demographic inevitability arguments tend to be utter bullshit.
Agreed.
According to these stats, young black people are far more heavily Democrat that the general population. We've moved on from a situation where pretty much all black people voted for the same party, which is probably a good sign for a society, but I'd bet the numbers are curving gradually closer to the way that all young people vote in the US, rather than heading in a straight line to the Republicans.
So, there's really more cases than when this was at its peak? Hmmm.
More a measure of how comprehensively the testing system fell over in March. Best guess is that just before lockdown there were rather more than 100 k infections a day, and the system was picking up about 5 % of them.
But here to 100 k is about 4 doublings. Think in terms of doublings.
So, there's really more cases than when this was at its peak? Hmmm.
More a measure of how comprehensively the testing system fell over in March. Best guess is that just before lockdown there were rather more than 100 k infections a day, and the system was picking up about 5 % of them.
But here to 100 k is about 4 doublings. Think in terms of doublings.
Test system didn't fall over, it just only tested very sick people.
At the end of this Parliament, we need to kick the Tories out for good. Keir Starmer for PM
Don't worry, we'll be back.
I'd hope so, but who is the flag-bearer for a Toryism that isn't compromised by Borisism? When Boris fails, what's to stop the most successful democratic political party anywhere vanishing even further up the unpleasant part of its fundament?
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
Not surprising. Sylvia Plath comes to mind.
I'm surprised, I confess. I already know that creatives -especially poets, maybe - have a notably greater tendency to mental disturbance, drug abuse, alcoholism, and so on, but 20%?! 1 in 5??
Startling.
How does he define "eminent"?
IIRC someone did a counter study and found that the selection criteria biased towards people who had committed suicide.
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
I thought 1% seems extraordinarily high for a suicide rate but apparently not. In 2019 the UK suicide rate was 11.4 per 100k or 5319 deaths in England. There were approximately 500k deaths in England that year so the rate was just over 1% of deaths. I would not have guessed that.
The leading cause of death in males under 40, and up 25% this year.
Males tend to use more lethal methods when attempting suicide, and also not call for help.
Indeed. Suicides are already surging. I fear they could go through the roof in the next year. Men, especially.
One set of our neighbours both work at the University of Sheffield, I'm right in thinking I'm legally allowed to weld their house shut until after the end of term?
If you read the nonsense about the implications of renewing the Covid Act you may conclude that is one of your lesser options.
Have to admit living in the equivalent of Pinochet's Chile is a bit of a disappointment, the lack of round ups of political opponents and those who put pineapple on pizza is a real disappointment.
How would *you* know if they were rounding up the pineapple pizza eaters?
Several of my friends fit that degeneracy and aren't locked up.
To really understand pizza you must have eaten one with pineapple on it
I hope we can all agree this is a terrible decision and shows Johnson to be a horrific PM
Has your new hero Keir demanded the ending of the triple lock yet
Starmer has four years to come up with some policies. If he does so now he risks them getting nicked.
He hasn't four years on this one, it comes into force in April 21, so he will have to decide his position
Why? There’s sod all he can do about it. I have a feeling that between now and April there will be other matters upon which he can concentrate to deflect any criticism of him not taking a position on this particular issue.
I hope we can all agree this is a terrible decision and shows Johnson to be a horrific PM
Has your new hero Keir demanded the ending of the triple lock yet
If he doesn't soon he will face strong criticism from me.
Why doesn't your hero Boris end it?
I assume it because it is a manifesto commitment
Personally, and as someone affected, I would end it but it it is very controversial territory for labour as well as they backed it at the last election as well
And by the way, Boris is no hero of mine, I want him replaced asap by Rishi
A lot of trends would fit at the moment, it's about a week before we see significant divergence between exponential and linear.
We already know the mechanism. Stats have to be used in tandem with 'a priori' knowledge. Infections have a geometric growth pattern and thus lead to an exponential growth rate. Such a model requires an infinite pool of potential infectees though.
We know already therefore that the growth rate will be exponential in some early stage, but will substantially tail off as the numbers get big. No comfort to be had in this, but it can't be worse than exponential.
So Trafalgar have Trump still ahead in Michigan then as they did in 2016 but Biden picking up Pennsylvania, so if Trafalgar is correct Trump will be re elected but with a smaller EC margin
How the hell do you stop students from "going to pubs" or "partying", or "meeting people outside their accommodation"?
It's like making a law to stop babies crying.
Scotland have announced it, so its perfectly fine and pubs / restaurants asked to use common sense to determine this. When Boris announces something similar, it will be branded a total disaster.
So Trafalgar have Trump still ahead in Michigan then as they did in 2016 but Biden picking up Pennsylvania, so if Trafalgar is correct Trump will be re elected but with a smaller EC margin
I hope we can all agree this is a terrible decision and shows Johnson to be a horrific PM
Has your new hero Keir demanded the ending of the triple lock yet
If he doesn't soon he will face strong criticism from me.
Why doesn't your hero Boris end it?
I assume it because it is a manifesto commitment
Personally, and as someone affected, I would end it but it it is very controversial territory for labour as well as they backed it at the last election as well
And by the way, Boris is no hero of mine, I want him replaced asap by Rishi
Rishi is still a Tory so you'll know I can't support him either. He would be an improvement on Johnson.
One set of our neighbours both work at the University of Sheffield, I'm right in thinking I'm legally allowed to weld their house shut until after the end of term?
If you read the nonsense about the implications of renewing the Covid Act you may conclude that is one of your lesser options.
Have to admit living in the equivalent of Pinochet's Chile is a bit of a disappointment, the lack of round ups of political opponents and those who put pineapple on pizza is a real disappointment.
How would *you* know if they were rounding up the pineapple pizza eaters?
Several of my friends fit that degeneracy and aren't locked up.
First they came for the pineapple on pizza eaters, and I said nothing...
It's a 3% margin of error effectively but I have no idea how representative the sampling is within the state so it's meaningless to me without some context.
At least no one will be able to say Trump never led a Michigan poll if he wins the state.
It has to be seriously shit to be a student in Scotland now. 3-4hrs of in person lectures a week if you are lucky, outside of that no going round to your friends houses and no socializing in pubs or restaurants, basically sit inside and watch tv all day and night.
How the hell do you stop students from "going to pubs" or "partying", or "meeting people outside their accommodation"?
It's like making a law to stop babies crying.
If students stay 'within their six', and haven't been asked to self isolate due to a close contact with a positive case they have every right to go to the pub the same as any other adult. It's creating students as a leper class, and it ain't a good look.
How the hell do you stop students from "going to pubs" or "partying", or "meeting people outside their accommodation"?
It's like making a law to stop babies crying.
Scotland have announced it, so its perfectly fine and pubs / restaurants asked to use common sense to determine this. When Boris announces something similar, it will be branded a total disaster.
All just following the science.
Although I missed exactly how and when Sturgeon came by the nickname ‘the science’ in the first place?
I hope we can all agree this is a terrible decision and shows Johnson to be a horrific PM
Has your new hero Keir demanded the ending of the triple lock yet
If he doesn't soon he will face strong criticism from me.
Why doesn't your hero Boris end it?
I assume it because it is a manifesto commitment
Personally, and as someone affected, I would end it but it it is very controversial territory for labour as well as they backed it at the last election as well
And by the way, Boris is no hero of mine, I want him replaced asap by Rishi
Rishi is still a Tory so you'll know I can't support him either. He would be an improvement on Johnson.
Keir needs to back ending this.
I do not expect you to support the conservative party, if you did they would have all 650 seats in the HOC !!!!!!!
How the hell do you stop students from "going to pubs" or "partying", or "meeting people outside their accommodation"?
It's like making a law to stop babies crying.
If students stay 'within their six', and haven't been asked to self isolate due to a close contact with a positive case they have every right to go to the pub the same as any other adult. It's creating students as a leper class, and it ain't a good look.
Even as a non drinker, I spent a lot of my student days in pubs, it's bloody unenforceable.
How the hell do you stop students from "going to pubs" or "partying", or "meeting people outside their accommodation"?
It's like making a law to stop babies crying.
If students stay 'within their six', and haven't been asked to self isolate due to a close contact with a positive case they have every right to go to the pub the same as any other adult. It's creating students as a leper class, and it ain't a good look.
The answer is obvious - compulsory welding, woodwork, chemistry and other classes requiring PPE for all student for all their time outside lectures.
- Forces wearing of masks outside lectures. - Creates a generation of graduates who are extremely skilled in practical technology.
How the hell do you stop students from "going to pubs" or "partying", or "meeting people outside their accommodation"?
It's like making a law to stop babies crying.
If students stay 'within their six', and haven't been asked to self isolate due to a close contact with a positive case they have every right to go to the pub the same as any other adult. It's creating students as a leper class, and it ain't a good look.
This is Scotland and Saint Nicola, wait till she bans then from going home at Christmas
I hope we can all agree this is a terrible decision and shows Johnson to be a horrific PM
Has your new hero Keir demanded the ending of the triple lock yet
Starmer has four years to come up with some policies. If he does so now he risks them getting nicked.
He hasn't four years on this one, it comes into force in April 21, so he will have to decide his position
SKS is doing the standard thing of creating a decent image without saying anything about policy. There is a danger that the voters he actually needs will want to know over quite a period of time what sort of country he wants post Brexit UK to be, how he will deal with deficit and debt, how woke and post liberal he is, and also what sort of efforts has he made to root out the anti Semites from the party as well as the authoritarian left with their package of Marxist nonsense. There are still plenty of MPs who do not belong in a liberal and democratic society.
It has to be seriously shit to be a student in Scotland now. 3-4hrs of in person lectures a week if you are lucky, outside of that no going round to your friends houses and no socializing in pubs or restaurants, basically sit inside and watch tv all day and night.
Quite. And, on top of that, if you're from England, or (soon) the EU, or India/China etc, you will be paying big fees or incurring large debts.
All that to have a totally shit life, with no casual sex or drugs or rock and roll. What's the point? You might as well defer. Go home. Do something else.
Either universities will collapse OR students will break the law en masse.
So Trafalgar have Trump still ahead in Michigan then as they did in 2016 but Biden picking up Pennsylvania, so if Trafalgar is correct Trump will be re elected but with a smaller EC margin
Where else have they polled?
Most swing states, they have Trump holding all his 2016 states and Biden winning all the Hillary states and just picking up Pennsylvania as well
Off topic, we've had one hell of a thunder storm. Lightning very close by with huge thunder clap tripped the power, and there is over an inch depth of hailstones in the garden.
BBC weather forecast said "light showers". Pile of shite.
Update: So the drain in front of the garage was overwhelmed. I've just spent a pleasant hour mopping it up and moving stuff from the damp bits to the dry bits. The BBC weather forecast has just shown a photo of the hail from down the road in Shipley.
It has to be seriously shit to be a student in Scotland now. 3-4hrs of in person lectures a week if you are lucky, outside of that no going round to your friends houses and no socializing in pubs or restaurants, basically sit inside and watch tv all day and night.
It does smooth the transition from being a teenager, I guess?
That or testing them all is inevitable. Or we risk repeating the same mistake of emptying hospitals of people with covid from March.
Full Moonshot is impracticable, but full student body testing in the last week of term a sound idea.
Hold onto your seats, we're in for a bumpy ride...
Interesting that our GP practice e mailed me today to say they have hired a marquee for Saturday 10th October in the local park for patients to attend for their flu vaccinations and where applicable the patients blood pressure and weight will be taken and they will be offered an influenza vaccination as well if they qualify for it
They say unless their patients attend this mass vaccination they cannot guarantee an early vaccination in the near future
Comments
"Johnson is struggling with the politics of Covid, but it’s dangerous to write him off"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/23/boris-johnson-politics-covid-brexit-prime-minister
You can't do Lockdown 2.0 and then say employees have to work 1/3 of their hours if you are locking everyone back in their homes.
Time Sturgeon addressed these issues urgently
https://twitter.com/blue_labour/status/1309162757657419779?s=20
How's Perugia this time of year?
Wikipedia even has a few category pages for this phenomena.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Poets_who_committed_suicide
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Composers_who_committed_suicide
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Painters_who_committed_suicide
Startling.
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1309166373382356992?s=20
Am I Right?
That suggests to me that it is likely to be a better relative performer for Trump than many other states.
The big question - to me - is the impact of the felon vote, especially with Bloomberg paying off fines for felons!
IMO, there is a decent betting opportunity here.
Laying Boris to cease being leader between Jan and March of next year at 8.6 on betfair.
Combine that bet with Oct - Dec this year, and that's a 24% return that Boris will survive 6 months.
Plus even if he does go, you might still win if the leadership election takes a while!
I hope we can all agree this is a terrible decision and shows Johnson to be a horrific PM
Males tend to use more lethal methods when attempting suicide, and also not call for help.
According to these stats, young black people are far more heavily Democrat that the general population. We've moved on from a situation where pretty much all black people voted for the same party, which is probably a good sign for a society, but I'd bet the numbers are curving gradually closer to the way that all young people vote in the US, rather than heading in a straight line to the Republicans.
But here to 100 k is about 4 doublings. Think in terms of doublings.
But you're right - Labour thinking is best left 'til the last minute so nobody can pick it apart.
Why doesn't your hero Boris end it?
BBC News - Covid: Scottish university students banned from going to pubs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54285720
It's like making a law to stop babies crying.
Personally, and as someone affected, I would end it but it it is very controversial territory for labour as well as they backed it at the last election as well
And by the way, Boris is no hero of mine, I want him replaced asap by Rishi
We know already therefore that the growth rate will be exponential in some early stage, but will substantially tail off as the numbers get big. No comfort to be had in this, but it can't be worse than exponential.
Linear growth seems quite implausible.
https://twitter.com/IMcMillan/status/1309179116944601088
Keir needs to back ending this.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gUrxmVI0S8G0klptrEM6Etj4s38iAaCC/view
It's a 3% margin of error effectively but I have no idea how representative the sampling is within the state so it's meaningless to me without some context.
At least no one will be able to say Trump never led a Michigan poll if he wins the state.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181366324654081
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1309181731916972033
Although I missed exactly how and when Sturgeon came by the nickname ‘the science’ in the first place?
- Forces wearing of masks outside lectures.
- Creates a generation of graduates who are extremely skilled in practical technology.
Hold onto your seats, we're in for a bumpy ride...
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1309161682246266881?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1309149528600326154?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1309145945574182915?s=20
All that to have a totally shit life, with no casual sex or drugs or rock and roll. What's the point? You might as well defer. Go home. Do something else.
Either universities will collapse OR students will break the law en masse.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1309181587121201153
They say unless their patients attend this mass vaccination they cannot guarantee an early vaccination in the near future