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On Rishi’s big day he just fails to hold on as “next PM” betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
On Rishi’s big day he just fails to hold on as “next PM” betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
From @betdatapolitics latest "Next PM" betting trend chart based on Betfair market pic.twitter.com/X6RYZAuObh
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Backing Starmer is a proxy bet for Boris to still be PM in 2024
I've been totally stiffed by having to work full time for less than full pay for 6 months.
Figures:
ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%
It's a treble of
Boris being Tory leader at the next GE,
and losing,
to Starmer
is that 11/4ish?
His information from several Chinese elites it was that the government understood how serious the virus was and how harsh the economic consequences would be. He goes on to say that the Chinese then deliberately concealed the seriousness of the outbreak in order to let it spread out across the rest of the world to ensure that they were not the only ones that were economically disadvantaged.
In other words they kept quiet in order that "China was not going to be the only one to suffer this"
Sounds highly plausible to me although it could never be "proved"one way or the other although it's pretty clear China hid information trying to prove motive for doing so would be very difficult.
Interesting labour support is higher than conservative
He is well placed to take the next step up - but he could face taking over with 2-3 years to go before an election where the Tories will have been in power for 14 years.
He has time on his side. If he chose not to run now and the Tories lose narrowly, he could be well positioned to come in as LOTO vs. a Starmer having to work with the LDs and SNP, while also still having to deal with a Corbynite rump
Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.
He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
https://twitter.com/Ibra_official/status/1309142915210506244?s=20
https://twitter.com/perrybaconjr/status/1308815346602827776?s=19
(One endpoint for all this is something like John Major in 1995. It was obvious that the 1997 election was going to be lost, so the ambitious thing to do was for Big Beasts to keep their heads down and plan to take over after the defeat and rebuild. So the only challenge came from John Redwood, who was ambitious but quite mad. The possible difference is that it's easier to imagine BoJo saying "sod this, I don't like being unpopular" and skulking off into the sunset.)
Chance of a 2024 GE 66%
Boris still PM 63%
Starmer still Lab leader (guess) 95%?
For Starmer to be 3/1 to be next PM as per Betfair, you'd have to say he is 65% chance of beating Boris if he faces him next time
So yes freedom loving and lack of tough enforcement it likely is.
So basically Dominic Cummings. And Boris. Boris and Dom. Dom and Boris.
If Boris is hated by the public because of Covid/lockdown/Brexit it almost certainly wont be him facing Starmer at the next GE
She added the threat from the university accommodation bosses that anyone breaking rules may be evicted was worrying.
She said: "Threats to kick people out are quite harsh. We took a decision as a group to be more responsible because we knew we didn't have somewhere to go if we got kicked out. It might make students think twice."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54244333
You are also free to believe the Chinese death and infection figures.
BBC weather forecast said "light showers". Pile of shite.
The Coalition for App Fairness counts Spotify, Epic Games and Tinder owner Match Group among its founding members.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54280982
I'm not sure that wind in his sails helps him or anyone else. I suspect the puffers of those sails are mostly very far from being his friends.
But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.
In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.
Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
Party Requests
CONSTITUTION 254
DEMOCRATIC 494,072
GREEN 534
LIBERTARIAN 3,562
REPUBLICAN 179,279
UNAFFILIATED 325,173
Grand Total 1,002,874
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1309104822231195651?s=21
Indeed. Totaly stupid that the BBC get their weather from some 2nd rate American outfit.
If Sunak takes over it will be after at least a decade of the Tories in power so he cannot be that fresh and new, his best bet is to be a John Major figure and hope he avoids being David Miliband
I believe the AZ number - I think that race is a lot closer than people think.
The Georgia number is barely believable - it's almost incomprehensible to me that Biden would be seven points clear there.
I don't believe the New Mexico number the other way. While rural AZ was full of Trump-Pence posters, rural NM is full of (rather small) Biden-Harris ones. Simply, NM is a lot more Hispanic than AZ. And these aren't Cuban Americans. Plus Albuquerque is a third of the population of New Mexico. Add in Santa Fe (so Democrat it makes your teeth hurt) and Taos and you have demographics that will be very hard for Trump to break down. I'd reckon Biden will win by 10 to 12 points.
Nevada could be close this year, as it's more like Arizona than NM. If the rural vote comes out, it could be close. But I'd still expect Biden to win it.
I don't expect Biden to win Ohio or Missouri.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics
I am not a fan but I thought Annalise Dodds made some fair points without ever getting anything like a killer blow.
Rishi's press conference was truly masterful. The format of these conferences is extremely favourable to the politician (hence Nicola liking them so much). It is far too easy to give a banal or vague response with no follow up. But Rishi really did seem to address each question in substance with very polished sound bites. He thinks fast.
The last politician that I saw that was as skilled as this at such an early stage was one Tony Blair. Even Cameron wasn't this good.
Edit to add: he's 39 in about 10 days time
For what it's worth, I don't see any problem in seeking parliamentary approval in this way, and would support the amendment as a matter of principle, even though I'd vote in favour of the restrictions. I suspect this democratic/parliamentary principle is behind Harman's sponsorship.
I don't think we should place too much weight on these figures.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1309149910697226244?s=20
In short, a lot more political experience.
Rishi is good, but you can't microwave experience. (And yes, if the government needs fresh urgently, it needs to be from outside the government. If Boris falls apart, it has to be someone uncompromised, which means Hunt. He'll still lose in 2024, though.)
(I'd be happy to see him become PM when he's in his 80s
But it is a useful cross check against those pollsters whose own weightings create as much trouble as they save!
A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%
Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.
Kids: forget about poetry
They may not be as partisan as the older generations, but they clearly still lean heavily towards the Democrats.
Scottish government says Sunak's job support scheme 'disappointing' and doesn't go far enough
Btw I am not anti-HMG, just anti this HMG ;-)