Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

On Rishi’s big day he just fails to hold on as “next PM” betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 24 in General
On Rishi’s big day he just fails to hold on as “next PM” betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

From @betdatapolitics latest "Next PM" betting trend chart based on Betfair market pic.twitter.com/X6RYZAuObh

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    1st.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    edited September 24
    Mike is right, it is a strange market. The worse Boris does, the less likely Starmer is to be next PM.

    Backing Starmer is a proxy bet for Boris to still be PM in 2024
  • Sunak's announcements were a lot less generous than I thought they would be. That will likely make the government less popular as we head into the winter, but equally might increase his personal stock with Tory MPs and members, who tend to be fiscal hawks, so for both reasons he is perhaps better placed to be PM than before. I think Gove is one to watch though, he is Murdoch's candidate. Like Mike I struggle to see Johnson making it through to the next election, and so SKS seems unlikely to be next PM.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    This is like the Democratic nominee market. Just lay everyone.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,246
    All these folk being paid when they aren't going to work.

    I've been totally stiffed by having to work full time for less than full pay for 6 months.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004
    Dan Hodges' take, that Sunak is a COVID Hawk who wants to fence in the scientists by leaving the economy highly exposed to more radical health measures, seems logical
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,450
    edited September 24
    Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.

    Figures:

    ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
    GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
    INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
    IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
    MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
    MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
    NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
    NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
    OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
    SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
    TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,246
    isam said:

    Mike is right, it is a strange market. The worse Boris does, the less likely Starmer is to be next PM.

    Backing Starmer is a proxy bet for Boris to still be PM in 2024

    But assumes that Bozo would then lose in 2024. If he wins, he hands over to another Tory in 2025/6.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    edited September 24

    isam said:

    Mike is right, it is a strange market. The worse Boris does, the less likely Starmer is to be next PM.

    Backing Starmer is a proxy bet for Boris to still be PM in 2024

    But assumes that Bozo would then lose in 2024. If he wins, he hands over to another Tory in 2025/6.
    Yeah, it is not even as good as I made out, and I dont think it is that a good bet at all!

    It's a treble of

    Boris being Tory leader at the next GE,
    and losing,
    to Starmer

    is that 11/4ish?
  • All these folk being paid when they aren't going to work.

    I've been totally stiffed by having to work full time for less than full pay for 6 months.

    I was made redundant at the start of the week. Now I'm not too sure if I am unemployed, self-employed or retired.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.

    Figures:

    ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
    GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
    INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
    IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
    MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
    MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
    NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
    NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
    OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
    SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
    TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%

    Missouri level? I assume some-one got their State initials in a twist and they mean Michigan.
  • Why is Rishi called "Richi" on the graph? Is it a subliminal suggestion that he isn't, after all, a man of the people?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    edited September 24

    isam said:

    Mike is right, it is a strange market. The worse Boris does, the less likely Starmer is to be next PM.

    Backing Starmer is a proxy bet for Boris to still be PM in 2024

    But assumes that Bozo would then lose in 2024. If he wins, he hands over to another Tory in 2025/6.
    If Boris wins again in 2024 and gets a second Tory majority he would be the second most successful Tory leader after Thatcher since WW2 in electoral terms and can stay on as long as he wants, though he would probably step down in 2029 after 10 years in power and then Rishi can take over and lead the party into the 2029 general election
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,006
    Following up on Lady G's comments on China on the last thread, I'm currently reading Bob Woodward's "Rage" and the thing that really quite surprisingly caught my attention was a comment from Mark Pottinger who was Deputy National Security adviser at the time of the outbreak. Pottinger is not a right wing loony, speaks fluent Mandarin and has excellent contacts in China, having lived there for seven years. He has written about 30 articles on SARS.

    His information from several Chinese elites it was that the government understood how serious the virus was and how harsh the economic consequences would be. He goes on to say that the Chinese then deliberately concealed the seriousness of the outbreak in order to let it spread out across the rest of the world to ensure that they were not the only ones that were economically disadvantaged.

    In other words they kept quiet in order that "China was not going to be the only one to suffer this"

    Sounds highly plausible to me although it could never be "proved"one way or the other although it's pretty clear China hid information trying to prove motive for doing so would be very difficult.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    Andy_JS said:

    Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.

    Figures:

    ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
    GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
    INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
    IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
    MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
    MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
    NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
    NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
    OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
    SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
    TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%

    Obama won Indiana in 2008, Bush won Nevada in 2000 and 2004, not as incredible as it seems
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    Andy_JS said:

    Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.

    Figures:

    ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
    GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
    INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
    IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
    MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
    MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
    NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
    NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
    OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
    SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
    TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%

    Missouri level? I assume some-one got their State initials in a twist and they mean Michigan.
    Bill Clinton won Missouri twice
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 36,380
    edited September 24



    Interesting labour support is higher than conservative
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,155
    Gove’s in charge of border arrangements post January. It’s really very difficult to see how he’s going to come through that unscathed.
  • Everyone assumes that Rishi wants the top job right now. He is only 39 years old.

    He is well placed to take the next step up - but he could face taking over with 2-3 years to go before an election where the Tories will have been in power for 14 years.

    He has time on his side. If he chose not to run now and the Tories lose narrowly, he could be well positioned to come in as LOTO vs. a Starmer having to work with the LDs and SNP, while also still having to deal with a Corbynite rump
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
  • The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    He is destined to be PM as soon as Boris leaves either by choice or by the 1922
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    Everyone assumes that Rishi wants the top job right now. He is only 39 years old.

    He is well placed to take the next step up - but he could face taking over with 2-3 years to go before an election where the Tories will have been in power for 14 years.

    He has time on his side. If he chose not to run now and the Tories lose narrowly, he could be well positioned to come in as LOTO vs. a Starmer having to work with the LDs and SNP, while also still having to deal with a Corbynite rump

    Maybe but if the Tories lose in 2024 the Tories might prefer some Patel red meat and clear blue water with Starmer to Sunak who could find himself David Miliband to her Ed Miliband, his best chance is to take over in power
  • Quickly running out of footballers who haven't had it.




  • Interesting labour support is higher than conservative
    I can't imagine 99% of the population have any real idea of the details of this scheme and how it might effect you. Far too soon to be asking people about their reaction to gauge any genuine feedback.
  • OllyT said:

    Following up on Lady G's comments on China on the last thread, I'm currently reading Bob Woodward's "Rage" and the thing that really quite surprisingly caught my attention was a comment from Mark Pottinger who was Deputy National Security adviser at the time of the outbreak. Pottinger is not a right wing loony, speaks fluent Mandarin and has excellent contacts in China, having lived there for seven years. He has written about 30 articles on SARS.

    His information from several Chinese elites it was that the government understood how serious the virus was and how harsh the economic consequences would be. He goes on to say that the Chinese then deliberately concealed the seriousness of the outbreak in order to let it spread out across the rest of the world to ensure that they were not the only ones that were economically disadvantaged.

    In other words they kept quiet in order that "China was not going to be the only one to suffer this"

    Sounds highly plausible to me although it could never be "proved"one way or the other although it's pretty clear China hid information trying to prove motive for doing so would be very difficult.

    If the Chinese were trying to keep the seriousness of the disease secret, they didn't do a very good job of it. They were publishing papers back in January indicating that the disease had pandemic potential. See, for example Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China
  • HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.

    Figures:

    ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
    GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
    INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
    IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
    MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
    MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
    NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
    NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
    OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
    SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
    TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%

    Missouri level? I assume some-one got their State initials in a twist and they mean Michigan.
    Bill Clinton won Missouri twice
    Missouri used to be a true swing state. Between 1904 and 2004, it voted for the winner every time but once.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244

    Everyone assumes that Rishi wants the top job right now. He is only 39 years old.

    He is well placed to take the next step up - but he could face taking over with 2-3 years to go before an election where the Tories will have been in power for 14 years.

    He has time on his side. If he chose not to run now and the Tories lose narrowly, he could be well positioned to come in as LOTO vs. a Starmer having to work with the LDs and SNP, while also still having to deal with a Corbynite rump

    Being in power is always better than not being in power.
  • alex_ said:

    Gove’s in charge of border arrangements post January. It’s really very difficult to see how he’s going to come through that unscathed.

    Though if it does go pearshaped, how does the government stop the image of crashing failure infecting the rest of the cabinet? Including Rishi?

    (One endpoint for all this is something like John Major in 1995. It was obvious that the 1997 election was going to be lost, so the ambitious thing to do was for Big Beasts to keep their heads down and plan to take over after the defeat and rebuild. So the only challenge came from John Redwood, who was ambitious but quite mad. The possible difference is that it's easier to imagine BoJo saying "sod this, I don't like being unpopular" and skulking off into the sunset.)
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    edited September 24
    Quickly trying to work out the price for Sir Keir to be next PM

    Chance of a 2024 GE 66%
    Boris still PM 63%
    Starmer still Lab leader (guess) 95%?

    For Starmer to be 3/1 to be next PM as per Betfair, you'd have to say he is 65% chance of beating Boris if he faces him next time
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    He is destined to be PM as soon as Boris leaves either by choice or by the 1922
    The Tory party will be back at 55% approval levels at that moment, although I suspect the shine will lustre quickly because of the nature of the task in hand, despite his obvious skill.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    Alistair said:
    35% of under 30 year old African Americans liking his strength and anti establishment message even if they do not like all his polices and 28% saying the GOP is welcoming to black Americans suggests Trump could do better than expected with young black Americans even if older black Americans still strongly vote for Biden-Harris
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    edited September 24

    Quickly running out of footballers who haven't had it.

    36 yr old who scored both goals in a 2-0 win for Milan on Monday I think!
  • isam said:

    Quickly trying to work out the price for Sir Keir to be next PM

    Chance of a 2024 GE 66%
    Boris still PM 63%
    Starmer still Lab leader (guess) 95%?

    For Starmer to be 3/1 to be next PM as per Betfair, you'd have to say he is 65% chance of beating Boris if he faces him next time

    2024 GE surely >90% chance?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 223
    edited September 24
    Suella Braverman confirms that she’s a fxcking imbecile and was only appointed as AG because she’s a lapdog and part of the Brexit Death Cult . Apparently it’s unpatriotic of Labour to not want to break international law!
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038

    isam said:

    Quickly trying to work out the price for Sir Keir to be next PM

    Chance of a 2024 GE 66%
    Boris still PM 63%
    Starmer still Lab leader (guess) 95%?

    For Starmer to be 3/1 to be next PM as per Betfair, you'd have to say he is 65% chance of beating Boris if he faces him next time

    2024 GE surely >90% chance?
    1/2 on Betfair
  • Scott_xP said:
    Considering the first graph is flat from April til today it can't be Barnard Castle, Test or Trace or anything since April. It's been completely consistent.

    So yes freedom loving and lack of tough enforcement it likely is.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Quickly trying to work out the price for Sir Keir to be next PM

    Chance of a 2024 GE 66%
    Boris still PM 63%
    Starmer still Lab leader (guess) 95%?

    For Starmer to be 3/1 to be next PM as per Betfair, you'd have to say he is 65% chance of beating Boris if he faces him next time

    2024 GE surely >90% chance?
    1/2 on Betfair
    Wow. I'm surprised!
  • Scott_xP said:
    There is a communications problem as detailed on the last thread, with conflicting or ambiguous directions published. There is also Barnard Castle which led to many government figures proclaiming that we should use common sense and our own judgement rather than follow the rules.

    So basically Dominic Cummings. And Boris. Boris and Dom. Dom and Boris.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    edited September 24

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Quickly trying to work out the price for Sir Keir to be next PM

    Chance of a 2024 GE 66%
    Boris still PM 63%
    Starmer still Lab leader (guess) 95%?

    For Starmer to be 3/1 to be next PM as per Betfair, you'd have to say he is 65% chance of beating Boris if he faces him next time

    2024 GE surely >90% chance?
    1/2 on Betfair
    Wow. I'm surprised!
    To be fair those %s on GE 2024 and Boris still being leader are related so prob not exactly correct, and my 95% on Starmer is a guess, so I wouldn't be precisely confident of the numbers , but roughly speaking you'd have to think Starmer was decent odds on to beat Boris, if they were both still leader of their party, to back him at 3/1 to be next PM.

    If Boris is hated by the public because of Covid/lockdown/Brexit it almost certainly wont be him facing Starmer at the next GE
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 24
    The excuse of well I didn't bother to isolate because I couldn't stay away from family so why bother, is along the lines of some of the excuses for looting during the London Riots.
  • She said students from her accommodation had socialised in other halls before the outbreak and had been "mingling outside their household".

    She added the threat from the university accommodation bosses that anyone breaking rules may be evicted was worrying.

    She said: "Threats to kick people out are quite harsh. We took a decision as a group to be more responsible because we knew we didn't have somewhere to go if we got kicked out. It might make students think twice."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54244333
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,006

    OllyT said:

    Following up on Lady G's comments on China on the last thread, I'm currently reading Bob Woodward's "Rage" and the thing that really quite surprisingly caught my attention was a comment from Mark Pottinger who was Deputy National Security adviser at the time of the outbreak. Pottinger is not a right wing loony, speaks fluent Mandarin and has excellent contacts in China, having lived there for seven years. He has written about 30 articles on SARS.

    His information from several Chinese elites it was that the government understood how serious the virus was and how harsh the economic consequences would be. He goes on to say that the Chinese then deliberately concealed the seriousness of the outbreak in order to let it spread out across the rest of the world to ensure that they were not the only ones that were economically disadvantaged.

    In other words they kept quiet in order that "China was not going to be the only one to suffer this"

    Sounds highly plausible to me although it could never be "proved"one way or the other although it's pretty clear China hid information trying to prove motive for doing so would be very difficult.

    If the Chinese were trying to keep the seriousness of the disease secret, they didn't do a very good job of it. They were publishing papers back in January indicating that the disease had pandemic potential. See, for example Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China
    You are entirely free to believe that the Chinese were fully upfront with what they knew and when they knew it. Hasn't it been widely accepted now that the information from Taiwan to the WHO in the early weeks of the outbreak censored by the Chinese?

    You are also free to believe the Chinese death and infection figures.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,072
    edited September 24
    Either that or nobody wants to be blamed for talks failing.
  • twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,246

    All these folk being paid when they aren't going to work.

    I've been totally stiffed by having to work full time for less than full pay for 6 months.

    I was made redundant at the start of the week. Now I'm not too sure if I am unemployed, self-employed or retired.
    Very sorry to hear that. Puts my whinging into perspective.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 24

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
    He appears to have the unique ability of being intelligent, does detail, while also speaking human , coming across with a degree of empathy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,246
    Off topic, we've had one hell of a thunder storm. Lightning very close by with huge thunder clap tripped the power, and there is over an inch depth of hailstones in the garden.

    BBC weather forecast said "light showers". Pile of shite.
  • Several major developers have formed a coalition to fight Apple over its app store policies.
    The Coalition for App Fairness counts Spotify, Epic Games and Tinder owner Match Group among its founding members.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54280982
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,505

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
    He does ok.

    I'm not sure that wind in his sails helps him or anyone else. I suspect the puffers of those sails are mostly very far from being his friends.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727

    Off topic, we've had one hell of a thunder storm. Lightning very close by with huge thunder clap tripped the power, and there is over an inch depth of hailstones in the garden.

    BBC weather forecast said "light showers". Pile of shite.

    Always look at the MET Office forecast. Miles more accurate imho.
  • All these folk being paid when they aren't going to work.

    I've been totally stiffed by having to work full time for less than full pay for 6 months.

    I was made redundant at the start of the week. Now I'm not too sure if I am unemployed, self-employed or retired.
    Very sorry to hear that. Puts my whinging into perspective.
    There's plenty worse off. PBers have lost loved ones, and we might have lost PBers. I'm not a wealthy man but I'm not yet begging on the streets. I've seen grown men in tears at losing their jobs. It's a damn mess we're in and no mistake. Thanks, though.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,072
    edited September 24
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Following up on Lady G's comments on China on the last thread, I'm currently reading Bob Woodward's "Rage" and the thing that really quite surprisingly caught my attention was a comment from Mark Pottinger who was Deputy National Security adviser at the time of the outbreak. Pottinger is not a right wing loony, speaks fluent Mandarin and has excellent contacts in China, having lived there for seven years. He has written about 30 articles on SARS.

    His information from several Chinese elites it was that the government understood how serious the virus was and how harsh the economic consequences would be. He goes on to say that the Chinese then deliberately concealed the seriousness of the outbreak in order to let it spread out across the rest of the world to ensure that they were not the only ones that were economically disadvantaged.

    In other words they kept quiet in order that "China was not going to be the only one to suffer this"

    Sounds highly plausible to me although it could never be "proved"one way or the other although it's pretty clear China hid information trying to prove motive for doing so would be very difficult.

    If the Chinese were trying to keep the seriousness of the disease secret, they didn't do a very good job of it. They were publishing papers back in January indicating that the disease had pandemic potential. See, for example Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China
    You are entirely free to believe that the Chinese were fully upfront with what they knew and when they knew it. Hasn't it been widely accepted now that the information from Taiwan to the WHO in the early weeks of the outbreak censored by the Chinese?

    You are also free to believe the Chinese death and infection figures.
    I've no idea if the Chinese were fully upfront with what they knew and when they knew it, but it is a simple fact that at least one paper was published by Chinese researchers in the medical literature, in January, warning of the pandemic potential of the virus. They warned us it was on the way. Maybe they could have warned us sooner, but it's obviously wrong to claim that they tried to keep it secret until it had spread to Europe.
  • twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
    Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.

    But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.

    In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.

    Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,157
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:
    35% of under 30 year old African Americans liking his strength and anti establishment message even if they do not like all his polices and 28% saying the GOP is welcoming to black Americans suggests Trump could do better than expected with young black Americans even if older black Americans still strongly vote for Biden-Harris
    Did you skip over the bit that says only 29% of those under 30s are definitely motivated to vote?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    North Carolina passes the 1 million mark for absentee ballot requests.

    Party Requests
    CONSTITUTION 254
    DEMOCRATIC 494,072
    GREEN 534
    LIBERTARIAN 3,562
    REPUBLICAN 179,279
    UNAFFILIATED 325,173
    Grand Total 1,002,874


  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,706
    Raab doing some good stuff away from the spotlight.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,157

    Off topic, we've had one hell of a thunder storm. Lightning very close by with huge thunder clap tripped the power, and there is over an inch depth of hailstones in the garden.

    BBC weather forecast said "light showers". Pile of shite.

    Always look at the MET Office forecast. Miles more accurate imho.

    Indeed. Totaly stupid that the BBC get their weather from some 2nd rate American outfit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
    Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.

    But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.

    In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.

    Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
    His problem is while Blair and Cameron were not much older than he is both took over as leader after 3 or more election defeats for their party and years out of power and therefore seemed fresh and new.

    If Sunak takes over it will be after at least a decade of the Tories in power so he cannot be that fresh and new, his best bet is to be a John Major figure and hope he avoids being David Miliband
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    Andy_JS said:

    Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.

    Figures:

    ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
    GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
    INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
    IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
    MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
    MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
    NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
    NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
    OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
    SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
    TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%

    Greetings from New Mexico.

    I believe the AZ number - I think that race is a lot closer than people think.

    The Georgia number is barely believable - it's almost incomprehensible to me that Biden would be seven points clear there.

    I don't believe the New Mexico number the other way. While rural AZ was full of Trump-Pence posters, rural NM is full of (rather small) Biden-Harris ones. Simply, NM is a lot more Hispanic than AZ. And these aren't Cuban Americans. Plus Albuquerque is a third of the population of New Mexico. Add in Santa Fe (so Democrat it makes your teeth hurt) and Taos and you have demographics that will be very hard for Trump to break down. I'd reckon Biden will win by 10 to 12 points.

    Nevada could be close this year, as it's more like Arizona than NM. If the rural vote comes out, it could be close. But I'd still expect Biden to win it.

    I don't expect Biden to win Ohio or Missouri.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    Scott_xP said:
    Aaron not amongst the rebels. Keeping his nose clean for a junior ministerial job in time :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:
    35% of under 30 year old African Americans liking his strength and anti establishment message even if they do not like all his polices and 28% saying the GOP is welcoming to black Americans suggests Trump could do better than expected with young black Americans even if older black Americans still strongly vote for Biden-Harris
    Did you skip over the bit that says only 29% of those under 30s are definitely motivated to vote?
    3% of the electorate in 2016 were African Americans under 30 and Trump only won 9% of them then, in a close election they could be crucial if he doubles or even tripes his voteshare with them



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics
  • Covid test update: got to the test site, which was very quiet. Guy on the door asked my wife for her QR code. But although the website had said she had a confirmed slot, it did not send a confirmation email with the code and so it turned out she was not on the system. The guy said he had just had someone else with the same problem and commented that "the website is shit". Wasted journey and no closer to knowing whether she has it. And you wonder why Covid is spreading? Fucking useless government.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.

    Figures:

    ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
    GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
    INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
    IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
    MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
    MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
    NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
    NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
    OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
    SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
    TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%

    Greetings from New Mexico.

    I believe the AZ number - I think that race is a lot closer than people think.

    The Georgia number is barely believable - it's almost incomprehensible to me that Biden would be seven points clear there.

    I don't believe the New Mexico number the other way. While rural AZ was full of Trump-Pence posters, rural NM is full of (rather small) Biden-Harris ones. Simply, NM is a lot more Hispanic than AZ. And these aren't Cuban Americans. Plus Albuquerque is a third of the population of New Mexico. Add in Santa Fe (so Democrat it makes your teeth hurt) and Taos and you have demographics that will be very hard for Trump to break down. I'd reckon Biden will win by 10 to 12 points.

    Nevada could be close this year, as it's more like Arizona than NM. If the rural vote comes out, it could be close. But I'd still expect Biden to win it.

    I don't expect Biden to win Ohio or Missouri.
    The numbers are all way too close. Trump and Biden between 45 and 52 in that entire basket of states. Really ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    Alistair said:
    The Democrats should be very relieved that those younger (more Trump friendly) voters don't seem very motivated to vote!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727

    All these folk being paid when they aren't going to work.

    I've been totally stiffed by having to work full time for less than full pay for 6 months.

    I was made redundant at the start of the week. Now I'm not too sure if I am unemployed, self-employed or retired.
    Very sorry to hear that. Puts my whinging into perspective.
    There's plenty worse off. PBers have lost loved ones, and we might have lost PBers. I'm not a wealthy man but I'm not yet begging on the streets. I've seen grown men in tears at losing their jobs. It's a damn mess we're in and no mistake. Thanks, though.
    Good luck with the next steps.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140
    What was impressive to me as I drove back from Kilmarnock this afternoon was that Rishi had both the CBI and the TUC singing his praises and saying that this was exactly what they had been asking for. I think the Trade Unionist wanted a bit more emphasis on training but once again Rishi seems to have got everyone working together to do what can be done in an immensely difficult situation. It really takes One Nation Conservatism to a whole new level.

    I am not a fan but I thought Annalise Dodds made some fair points without ever getting anything like a killer blow.

    Rishi's press conference was truly masterful. The format of these conferences is extremely favourable to the politician (hence Nicola liking them so much). It is far too easy to give a banal or vague response with no follow up. But Rishi really did seem to address each question in substance with very polished sound bites. He thinks fast.

    The last politician that I saw that was as skilled as this at such an early stage was one Tony Blair. Even Cameron wasn't this good.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Aaron not amongst the rebels. Keeping his nose clean for a junior ministerial job in time :D
  • HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
    Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.

    But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.

    In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.

    Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
    His problem is while Blair and Cameron were not much older than he is both took over as leader after 3 or more election defeats for their party and years out of power and therefore seemed fresh and new.

    If Sunak takes over it will be after at least a decade of the Tories in power so he cannot be that fresh and new, his best bet is to be a John Major figure and hope he avoids being David Miliband
    Rishi is the future of the party and your habit of trying to paint people in comparison with others is just bizarre
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,505

    Raab doing some good stuff away from the spotlight.

    With the clear exception of David Davis, Tory ministers actually do try to work at their jobs.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    edited September 24
    isam said:

    Quickly running out of footballers who haven't had it.

    36 yr old who scored both goals in a 2-0 win for Milan on Monday I think!
    He's 38!

    Edit to add: he's 39 in about 10 days time
  • Scott_xP said:
    It's interesting that Harriet Harman (and John Spellar) are Labour sponsors of this. Virtually all the other signatories are Tories/DUP who've been around a long time, but with a handful of newbies (e.g. Dehenna Davison).

    For what it's worth, I don't see any problem in seeking parliamentary approval in this way, and would support the amendment as a matter of principle, even though I'd vote in favour of the restrictions. I suspect this democratic/parliamentary principle is behind Harman's sponsorship.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:
    The Democrats should be very relieved that those younger (more Trump friendly) voters don't seem very motivated to vote!
    Yes, but terrifying for long term trends. As the generations shaped by the civil rights movement die off the "inevitability of demographic change" becomes a lot less inevitable.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,157
    edited September 24
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.

    Figures:

    ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
    GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
    INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
    IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
    MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
    MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
    NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
    NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
    OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
    SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
    TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%

    Greetings from New Mexico.

    I believe the AZ number - I think that race is a lot closer than people think.

    The Georgia number is barely believable - it's almost incomprehensible to me that Biden would be seven points clear there.

    I don't believe the New Mexico number the other way. While rural AZ was full of Trump-Pence posters, rural NM is full of (rather small) Biden-Harris ones. Simply, NM is a lot more Hispanic than AZ. And these aren't Cuban Americans. Plus Albuquerque is a third of the population of New Mexico. Add in Santa Fe (so Democrat it makes your teeth hurt) and Taos and you have demographics that will be very hard for Trump to break down. I'd reckon Biden will win by 10 to 12 points.

    Nevada could be close this year, as it's more like Arizona than NM. If the rural vote comes out, it could be close. But I'd still expect Biden to win it.

    I don't expect Biden to win Ohio or Missouri.
    The numbers are all way too close. Trump and Biden between 45 and 52 in that entire basket of states. Really ?
    SurveyMonkey are rated D- by 538. The only polsters rated lower by them are are banned.

    I don't think we should place too much weight on these figures.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Quickly running out of footballers who haven't had it.

    36 yr old who scored both goals in a 2-0 win for Milan on Monday I think!
    He's 38!

    Edit to add: he's 39 in about 10 days time
    Sorry, I thought wrong!
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    The mad thing is, those with inbuilt bias against the govt actually blame the govt for this

  • HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
    Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.

    But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.

    In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.

    Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
    His problem is while Blair and Cameron were not much older than he is both took over as leader after 3 or more election defeats for their party and years out of power and therefore seemed fresh and new.

    If Sunak takes over it will be after at least a decade of the Tories in power so he cannot be that fresh and new, his best bet is to be a John Major figure and hope he avoids being David Miliband
    Yup. And John Major had been an MP for a decade, short stints as Foreign Secretary and Chancellor, a longer run as Chief Sec, and a spell as a whip, which meant seeing everything. Oh, and time as Chair of Housing in a London Borough back when that was a big job. And a couple of election defeats before he got the Huntingdon seat.

    In short, a lot more political experience.

    Rishi is good, but you can't microwave experience. (And yes, if the government needs fresh urgently, it needs to be from outside the government. If Boris falls apart, it has to be someone uncompromised, which means Hunt. He'll still lose in 2024, though.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,157
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:
    The Democrats should be very relieved that those younger (more Trump friendly) voters don't seem very motivated to vote!
    Yes, but terrifying for long term trends. As the generations shaped by the civil rights movement die off the "inevitability of demographic change" becomes a lot less inevitable.
    There's no more chance of that imo than of the UK becoming 70% pro-Labour in 40 years time. People change their views as they get older.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Quickly running out of footballers who haven't had it.

    36 yr old who scored both goals in a 2-0 win for Milan on Monday I think!
    He's 38!

    Edit to add: he's 39 in about 10 days time
    He's hilarious. He made a very poor team worth watching when he was at OT.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Quickly running out of footballers who haven't had it.

    36 yr old who scored both goals in a 2-0 win for Milan on Monday I think!
    He's 38!

    Edit to add: he's 39 in about 10 days time
    He's hilarious. He made a very poor team worth watching when he was at OT.
    Very old for a top level striker, but very young for a prospective PM!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,157

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
    Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.

    But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.

    In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.

    Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
    His problem is while Blair and Cameron were not much older than he is both took over as leader after 3 or more election defeats for their party and years out of power and therefore seemed fresh and new.

    If Sunak takes over it will be after at least a decade of the Tories in power so he cannot be that fresh and new, his best bet is to be a John Major figure and hope he avoids being David Miliband
    Yup. And John Major had been an MP for a decade, short stints as Foreign Secretary and Chancellor, a longer run as Chief Sec, and a spell as a whip, which meant seeing everything. Oh, and time as Chair of Housing in a London Borough back when that was a big job. And a couple of election defeats before he got the Huntingdon seat.

    In short, a lot more political experience.

    Rishi is good, but you can't microwave experience. (And yes, if the government needs fresh urgently, it needs to be from outside the government. If Boris falls apart, it has to be someone uncompromised, which means Hunt. He'll still lose in 2024, though.)
    Agreed. Rishi needs to play the long game to become PM after a spell out of office for the Tories.

    (I'd be happy to see him become PM when he's in his 80s :wink:)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,321

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Those SurveyMonkey polls posted in the previous thread look pretty incredible on first viewing. Trump ahead in Nevada but only 3% clear in Indiana for example.

    Figures:

    ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49%
    GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45%
    INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47%
    IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46%
    MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48%
    MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47%
    NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47%
    NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48%
    OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48%
    SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49%
    TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%

    Greetings from New Mexico.

    I believe the AZ number - I think that race is a lot closer than people think.

    The Georgia number is barely believable - it's almost incomprehensible to me that Biden would be seven points clear there.

    I don't believe the New Mexico number the other way. While rural AZ was full of Trump-Pence posters, rural NM is full of (rather small) Biden-Harris ones. Simply, NM is a lot more Hispanic than AZ. And these aren't Cuban Americans. Plus Albuquerque is a third of the population of New Mexico. Add in Santa Fe (so Democrat it makes your teeth hurt) and Taos and you have demographics that will be very hard for Trump to break down. I'd reckon Biden will win by 10 to 12 points.

    Nevada could be close this year, as it's more like Arizona than NM. If the rural vote comes out, it could be close. But I'd still expect Biden to win it.

    I don't expect Biden to win Ohio or Missouri.
    The numbers are all way too close. Trump and Biden between 45 and 52 in that entire basket of states. Really ?
    SurveyMonkey are rated D- by 538. The only polsters rated lower by them are are banned.

    I don't think we should place too much weight on these figures.
    538 weight it down because of a lack of use of demographics and other stratification.

    But it is a useful cross check against those pollsters whose own weightings create as much trouble as they save!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    edited September 24
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:
    The Democrats should be very relieved that those younger (more Trump friendly) voters don't seem very motivated to vote!
    Yes, but terrifying for long term trends. As the generations shaped by the civil rights movement die off the "inevitability of demographic change" becomes a lot less inevitable.
    However in 2016 Trump only won whites under 30 by 4% compared to the 21% he won the white vote by overall, so these numbers do suggest race will be less polarising an issue in American politics for future generations, more white voters will vote Democrat and more black voters will vote Republican, which would actually be a positive thing
  • isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Aaron not amongst the rebels. Keeping his nose clean for a junior ministerial job in time :D
    Sounds a lot like Churchill's UK.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,869
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:
    35% of under 30 year old African Americans liking his strength and anti establishment message even if they do not like all his polices and 28% saying the GOP is welcoming to black Americans suggests Trump could do better than expected with young black Americans even if older black Americans still strongly vote for Biden-Harris
    Did you skip over the bit that says only 29% of those under 30s are definitely motivated to vote?
    3% of the electorate in 2016 were African Americans under 30 and Trump only won 9% of them then, in a close election they could be crucial if he doubles or even tripes his voteshare with them



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics
    What in tha survey leads you to believe he will double or triple his voteshare with young Adrican Americans? "35% of under 30 year old African Americans liking his strength and anti establishment message even if they do not like all his polices". Hardly a ringing endorsement.
  • HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
    Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.

    But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.

    In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.

    Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
    His problem is while Blair and Cameron were not much older than he is both took over as leader after 3 or more election defeats for their party and years out of power and therefore seemed fresh and new.

    If Sunak takes over it will be after at least a decade of the Tories in power so he cannot be that fresh and new, his best bet is to be a John Major figure and hope he avoids being David Miliband
    Yup. And John Major had been an MP for a decade, short stints as Foreign Secretary and Chancellor, a longer run as Chief Sec, and a spell as a whip, which meant seeing everything. Oh, and time as Chair of Housing in a London Borough back when that was a big job. And a couple of election defeats before he got the Huntingdon seat.

    In short, a lot more political experience.

    Rishi is good, but you can't microwave experience. (And yes, if the government needs fresh urgently, it needs to be from outside the government. If Boris falls apart, it has to be someone uncompromised, which means Hunt. He'll still lose in 2024, though.)
    Agreed. Rishi needs to play the long game to become PM after a spell out of office for the Tories.

    (I'd be happy to see him become PM when he's in his 80s :wink:)
    The irony is so many anti HMG want Boris gone (as do I) but worry that the new kid on the block (Rishi) may eclipse Keir and lead to another 4 years of conservative government post 2024 .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,157
    I've just 'liked' an @HYUFD post. Feeling faint now, think I'll go an lie down.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,928
    Extraordinary stat I have just unearthed.

    A Kentucky State Uni medical professor did a large study of 1,000 eminent creative people through history. He found that poets have a suicide rate of 20%. The suicide rate of creative people in general is 4%. The suicide rate for the average American is just 1%

    Poets also have a life expectancy of 59.6 years.

    Kids: forget about poetry
  • novanova Posts: 251
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:
    The Democrats should be very relieved that those younger (more Trump friendly) voters don't seem very motivated to vote!
    The Democrats would love it if the young people in this survey voted.

    They may not be as partisan as the older generations, but they clearly still lean heavily towards the Democrats.

  • Shocked at the response....

    Scottish government says Sunak's job support scheme 'disappointing' and doesn't go far enough
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,157

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309150193527513090?s=09

    The more I dig down, the more questions I have.

    Sunak's presentations throughout the day have been stunningly impressive. He answers the questions asked convincingly, even if when one analyses what he has said, it may not be quite so robust as it first seems.

    He is a masterful politician nonetheless.
    This is key. Rishi looks like a Prime Minister and acts like one. The others, fairly or unfairly, do not.
    Rishi looks and sounds the part, and has the brains and work ethic to do the job. That's a good start.

    But he's 39. That's four years younger than Blair when he took over. He's been an MP for just over five years. Blair had a decade in Parliament when he went to No 10. Rishi's predecessor in Richmond had been an MP for seven years when he took over as Leader of the Opposition. And most people agree that, with hindsight, Hague was wasted by taking over too young.

    In short, he's a green as Kermit the frog. And let's be honest, we don't know that much about his vision for what he'd do with the job.

    Future Prime Minister? Yes indeedy. PM in four months time (which is what some want)? You're having a giraffe.
    His problem is while Blair and Cameron were not much older than he is both took over as leader after 3 or more election defeats for their party and years out of power and therefore seemed fresh and new.

    If Sunak takes over it will be after at least a decade of the Tories in power so he cannot be that fresh and new, his best bet is to be a John Major figure and hope he avoids being David Miliband
    Yup. And John Major had been an MP for a decade, short stints as Foreign Secretary and Chancellor, a longer run as Chief Sec, and a spell as a whip, which meant seeing everything. Oh, and time as Chair of Housing in a London Borough back when that was a big job. And a couple of election defeats before he got the Huntingdon seat.

    In short, a lot more political experience.

    Rishi is good, but you can't microwave experience. (And yes, if the government needs fresh urgently, it needs to be from outside the government. If Boris falls apart, it has to be someone uncompromised, which means Hunt. He'll still lose in 2024, though.)
    Agreed. Rishi needs to play the long game to become PM after a spell out of office for the Tories.

    (I'd be happy to see him become PM when he's in his 80s :wink:)
    The irony is so many anti HMG want Boris gone (as do I) but worry that the new kid on the block (Rishi) may eclipse Keir and lead to another 4 years of conservative government post 2024 .
    It's not irony Big_G, it's commonsense if like me you want to see left-leaning policies.

    Btw I am not anti-HMG, just anti this HMG ;-)
This discussion has been closed.