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The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win? – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945

    I'm still leading the PB fantasy football league, have led all season.

    I'm still leading the PB fantasy football league, have led all season.
    Congratulations.
    You are the very living embodiment of Everton FC
  • Pagan2 said:

    If you are referring to me I do not support Boris in the least and didn't vote conservative in 2019 either.
    Are you sure? You need to be able to read the voting card
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited September 2020
    Alistair said:

    Key point about Bloomberg's 100 million for Florida.

    Bloomberg spent big backing Dems in 2018 as well at it all came in a final 10 days advertising blitz. Bloomberg's team believes that what generates the largest effect at the polls.
    I commented in the primaries if you were going to pick a state where they'd absolubtely lap Bloomberg up it'd be Florida.
    Could get a few of the Dade ex cuban back too. If there's one way to show you're not a commie it's using Bloomberg ads on the Telly.
  • The Government briefing today seems to suggest inevitably lockdown 2.0 is in place to be announced this week.

    Tuesday is moving day.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Pagan2 said:


    If you are referring to me I do not support Boris in the least and didn't vote conservative in 2019 either.

    No, wasn't referring to you at all.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    On thread, can someone explain why winning 0 or 3 can both be more likely than winning 1 or 2. Baffled.

    It would be true if there are a set of States likely to go the same way, rather than split one to either candidate. This is because, if the states have similar demographics, then you won't likely see a change in support in one independent of a change in support of the other.

    It's also the case that 0 includes all of the tail of the distribution of a Biden landslide, where Biden wins states like Missouri and Montana, in addition to the 6 in the bet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    I only play the hand egg fantasy leagues, I'm guessing the Son owners are happy in Fantasy Premier league today though :p
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    Why do you think it's a strange way to eat?
    Are physiology evolved for a mixed diet, we are designed to eat both meat and fish and vegetables. It is why vegans need to take supplements and possibly vegetarians not sure on that one but know vegans do as the girl who used to sit next to me in the office was vegan and had to take various supplements can't remember what for some vitamin and mineral deficiencies in the diet I believe.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839
    edited September 2020

    So you don't think our production of meat contributes to climate change
    Production methods for meat add to the release of the greenhouse gas methane. The cows are fed an unnatural diet that they can't digest. They therefore produce (mainly by burping rather than farting) more methane as a result of incomplete digestion (as you do when you don't digest your food properly). Pastured cows don't produce too much methane - no animal is made not to be able to digest its food properly. So it has nothing to do with meat per se. And really, the push to make us all eat soy and other cash crops using the 'cows and methane' argument is a piece of disgusting hypocrisy by agribusiness, causing a problem themselves and then guilting people in to accepting their solution.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Pulpstar said:

    I commented in the primaries if you were going to pick a state where they'd absolubtely lap Bloomberg up it'd be FLorida.
    Could get a few of the Dade ex cuban back too. If there's one way to show you're not a commie it's using Bloomberg ads on the Telly.
    Yes, but you would have to have the slots available. TV advertising is not an infinite resource. There are a limited amount of slots that have meaningful impact. Slightly different with online. If you are the Trump campaign, you will probably be already thinking about which slots to buy.

    Florida in 2018 was not exactly proof that the big splash at the end works. The Republicans took the Senate seat, keep the Governorship although did lose 2 House seats.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Are physiology evolved for a mixed diet, we are designed to eat both meat and fish and vegetables. It is why vegans need to take supplements and possibly vegetarians not sure on that one but know vegans do as the girl who used to sit next to me in the office was vegan and had to take various supplements can't remember what for some vitamin and mineral deficiencies in the diet I believe.
    So to summarise, you're talking nonsense.
  • I thought we sorted out the Rump Parliament last year?
    No - they chickened out.
  • So you don't think our production of meat contributes to climate change
    Not significantly, no. I think it can be dealt with sustainably with with other technological developments.

    Eliminating other emissions via things like research into clean transport, clean electricity generation, offsetting technologies are the solution not throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,228
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I can't imagine whether someone is a vegetarian or not makes the slightest difference as to whether they are worthy to be Prime Minister. Seriously - I note one of Starmer's most prominent critics on this is also one of the loudest supporters of the Prime Minister so that tells you all you need to know.

    I'm still staggered at this notion that a middle-aged electrician from Orpington and his mates have stumbled on the greatest deception of the modern age - like something out of Chitty Chitty Bang, thousands of children are being kept prisoner in tunnels under London.

    Well, I've been a prisoner in a tunnel in London but fortunately the power came back on and the tube started moving after a couple of minutes.

    What was that other movie, John Carpenter's "They Live" where aliens were in charge and using subliminal advertising to keep us all in line. I've never heard Donald Trump reference the tunnels under London where the children are - sorry, which children, where from and above all why?

    What lockdown did cause (I'm sure I saw on this on the Internet so it must be true) was a fall off in global birth rates so clearly Covid-19 is a weapon designed to cause mass sterility (apparently). Designed by the Illuminati (of course), it's a way of covertly reducing human population (might be easier than nuclear war). Once we are down to manageable levels, the secret legions of One World Government will emerge and we will all have to yield to a single authority (bit like everyone having the same phone).

    On the Tube Tunnel thing - I presume the chap in question is referring to this - https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0068458/ - documentary?
  • So to summarise, you're talking nonsense.
    That part isn't nonsense at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,094
    edited September 2020
    MrEd said:

    Yes, but you would have to have the slots available. TV advertising is not an infinite resource. There are a limited amount of slots that have meaningful impact. Slightly different with online. If you are the Trump campaign, you will probably be already thinking about which slots to buy.

    Florida in 2018 was not exactly proof that the big splash at the end works. The Republicans took the Senate seat, keep the Governorship although did lose 2 House seats.
    I am now of the view Biden will pick up Michigan and Pennsylvania and NE02 and hold all the Hillary states and Trump will hold all his other 2016 states too but Florida will be neck and neck and decide the EC, I think there is a serious possibility of election 2000 2 and hanging chads etc, particularly given America is so divided now
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited September 2020
    Surely in these sensitive times, where having a master branch on your software development stack os verboten, the concept of a white middle class individual "owning" players in a fantasy football league got to be racist / imperialistic.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    So to summarise, you're talking nonsense.
    No I was saying why I find it strange, you deny your body the fuel it is designed for which is a mixed diet. Evolution designed us to eat meat and vegetables simple as that. If you restrict your diet to the point that you need supplements
  • I have no qualms with him being a vegetarian. It is the "for the planet" bit I object to.

    People starting to say that we should all become vegetarians "for the planet" can f**k right off. If you don't want to eat bacon then fine, I couldn't care less. If he'd said he is a vegetarian but its a personal choice and he doesn't expect others to be then I would not object, but instead he banged on about it being good for the planet.

    People not eating meat I don't care about, but if you start to suggest that I shouldn't then that's where I have a problem.
    Did he say you should become a vegetarian, or did he explain why he did? Those are two different things.
    I am a vegetarian for similar reasons to Starmer and will happily explain my reasoning if asked. Equally I will never tell other people how to live their life, and in fact buy meat and fish and cook it for my kids every week.
  • Pagan2 said:

    The poll you provided said nothing of the sort, it said people didn't feel meat was necessary with every meal. That is a lot different to being a vegetarian. I don't eat meat with every meal that doesn't mean I am a vegetarian or stop me thinking they are a bit odd.

    Once again you ignore the message however which is it's not a vote winner for Starmer like you think it is.
    What are you on about? I'm sure Starmer doesn't think it's a vote winner either. He was just answering a question. Should he lie? I'd imagine his vegetarianism would be an entirely neutral matter with the voters.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,228

    No, thats literally what you said. Its not the ownership of BT that was the issue, simply its focus. And as I have responsed to a different post privatised BT Openreach simply refused to engage with us on fibre. Carried out a demand survey in 2004, decided the answer was no. Estate built 2005/6. Installs loads of phone lines but insists the houses aren't there for fibre purposes. Can you complain? no - they are a monopoly.

    Every other major European nation gets this. State owned commercial organisations. Deutsche Bahn is so successful that it now runs a significant proportion of our trains. We could have done the same - remember that BR's Intercity sector was at the time of privatisation the only profitable long distance rail operator *in the world*. Think what it could have become had it not been sawed up and transformed into loss-making franchises by dogmatic Tories?
    The problem is a management mentality. Remember British Airways, long after privatisation, thinking that sabotage (literally) against competitors was OK. Since it was the national flag carrier. BT still think that They Are In Charge.
  • Pagan2 said:

    No I was saying why I find it strange, you deny your body the fuel it is designed for which is a mixed diet. Evolution designed us to eat meat and vegetables simple as that. If you restrict your diet to the point that you need supplements
    Veganism isn't the same as vegetarianism, in your own post you admit you don't know.

    This whole discussion was about vegetarianism, so I reiterate, you are talking nonsense.

    You can't read, you can't add up and you clearly can't argue. It's a waste of my time educating you any further.
  • Not significantly, no. I think it can be dealt with sustainably with with other technological developments.

    Eliminating other emissions via things like research into clean transport, clean electricity generation, offsetting technologies are the solution not throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
    Going back to relatively small scale rotation farming is the solution. As I said before, cows do not naturally produce inordinate amounts of methane - it would be absurd to imagine they would.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    Going back to relatively small scale rotation farming is the solution. As I said before, cows do not naturally produce inordinate amounts of methane - it would be absurd to imagine they would.
    The ghost of Thomas Malthus probably nodded his head in agreement there.
  • Totally off topic:

    We allowed some of our lawn to grow to see what wild flowers might appear. Limited success; one nice patch of yarrow is the highlight.

    However, now I'm trying to mow it, it is a right bugger of a job. Two hours in, and still lots to do.

    Good exercise, mind.
  • NEW THREAD

  • I have no qualms with him being a vegetarian. It is the "for the planet" bit I object to.

    People starting to say that we should all become vegetarians "for the planet" can f**k right off. If you don't want to eat bacon then fine, I couldn't care less. If he'd said he is a vegetarian but its a personal choice and he doesn't expect others to be then I would not object, but instead he banged on about it being good for the planet.

    People not eating meat I don't care about, but if you start to suggest that I shouldn't then that's where I have a problem.
    It's an unfortunate fact that cattle produce methane and it would reduce warming of the climate if there were fewer cattle - so not no meat, but less meat, particularly beef, and less dairy.

    However, there's some hope that the methane can be reduced by adjusting cattle diet, so perhaps clever people will rescue us from having to make a difficult change.
  • If we're not supposed to eat animals why are they made out of meat?

    Famous argument for cannibalism
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    edited September 2020

    And yet 50% of the last-minute examples you quoted were victories! I always thought Labour were foolish to go early in the 2000s - they could have governed for 15 years, instead of 13, but instead voluntarily gave up almost 14% of their mandate.

    Anyway, it's hardly last-minute in the circumstances: going in spring artificially truncates the government's term to 4.25 years, just because the last election was very unusually - by necessity - held in December.

    I think an extra 6 months beyond the 'expected' date to carry out the government's programme, given that the coronavirus emergency will dominate a year of its time at the absolute minimum, is entirely reasonable.
    There is value in having the option of when to call the election in order to maximise your chances. Waiting until the last minute removes that option. It might be an awful time for you - events dear boy. There's a trade off between maximising your time in office and preserving a timing option.

    It reminds me of the story of the considerate and honest judge who told the prisoner he had just condemned to death - "You will be hanged at 6am one morning in the next six days , i.e. up to next Monday morning, but I guarantee that you will not be left in the position of knowing for certain that you'll hang in the morning".

    The condemned man calculated that he wouldn't be hanged on the Monday morning because he would know for certain the night before. He then calculated that he wouldn't be hanged on the Sunday morning either because, given that he couldn't be hanged on the Monday morning, he'd know the night before that he was going to hang on the Sunday morning which would break the judge's promise. He worked back through the week eliminating all the days and began to relax. Much to his surprise he was hanged on the Thursday morning.
  • Did he say you should become a vegetarian, or did he explain why he did? Those are two different things.
    I am a vegetarian for similar reasons to Starmer and will happily explain my reasoning if asked. Equally I will never tell other people how to live their life, and in fact buy meat and fish and cook it for my kids every week.
    I applaud the principles behind Starmer's (and I presume your) decision to give up meat, but I'm afraid in terms of his perception that a vegetarian diet is healthier, he's flat out wrong. And in terms of his perception that it's better for the planet, he ain't particularly right either - at best he's being far too simplistic.

    One of the worst things about his statement and many others by vegetarians is that they are sometimes 'tempted' by meat - what on earth do they think that 'temptation' is, if not their body asking them for something it needs? Looked at dispassionately, it is a willful abandonment of common sense.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Are physiology evolved for a mixed diet, we are designed to eat both meat and fish and vegetables. It is why vegans need to take supplements and possibly vegetarians not sure on that one but know vegans do as the girl who used to sit next to me in the office was vegan and had to take various supplements can't remember what for some vitamin and mineral deficiencies in the diet I believe.
    I have not eaten meat or fish for over 30 years, don't take any supplements and am in good health, certainly better health than most men in their mid-40s judging from their appearance. Humans are omnivores and can easily get by without meat as long as they eat a balanced diet. I don't understand why people find the existence of vegetarians so threatening. I doubt this is a vote winner for Starmer but it makes me like him more.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    Veganism isn't the same as vegetarianism, in your own post you admit you don't know.

    This whole discussion was about vegetarianism, so I reiterate, you are talking nonsense.

    You can't read, you can't add up and you clearly can't argue. It's a waste of my time educating you any further.
    Yes I said I didn't know because its a subject that has never come up with vegetarians I know whereas it has with the vegan.

    However here is vegetarian advice
    https://www.rawpress.co/blog/im-vegetarian-what-supplements-should-i-take

    As to you educating me, no thanks you are too much of a dimwit
  • I applaud the principles behind Starmer's (and I presume your) decision to give up meat, but I'm afraid in terms of his perception that a vegetarian diet is healthier, he's flat out wrong. And in terms of his perception that it's better for the planet, he ain't particularly right either - at best he's being far too simplistic.

    One of the worst things about his statement and many others by vegetarians is that they are sometimes 'tempted' by meat - what on earth do they think that 'temptation' is, if not their body asking them for something it needs? Looked at dispassionately, it is a willful abandonment of common sense.
    Since I am not an elite athlete I think a balanced vegetarian diet is more than healthy enough for me. I am certain that my diet is more healthy than that of most non-vegetarians in this country as unlike most people you see these days I am not a fat knacker. It is undeniable that intensive meat production is bad for the environment. Although to be honest that was not my motivation for becoming vegetarian, it just seemed wrong to me to kill another living thing just to eat it.
  • You definitely are a cut above the rest
    Some of these puns are offal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945
    The Venn diagram between those annoyed by the existence of vegetarians and those who accuse the "Left" of policing personal liberty would be interesting.
  • Some of these puns are offal.
    Sausages
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    dixiedean said:

    The Venn diagram between those annoyed by the existence of vegetarians and those who accuse the "Left" of policing personal liberty would be interesting.

    It's called a circle!
  • Pagan2 said:

    Yes I said I didn't know because its a subject that has never come up with vegetarians I know whereas it has with the vegan.

    However here is vegetarian advice
    https://www.rawpress.co/blog/im-vegetarian-what-supplements-should-i-take

    As to you educating me, no thanks you are too much of a dimwit
    I can't educate away stupidity.
  • Since I am not an elite athlete I think a balanced vegetarian diet is more than healthy enough for me. I am certain that my diet is more healthy than that of most non-vegetarians in this country as unlike most people you see these days I am not a fat knacker. It is undeniable that intensive meat production is bad for the environment. Although to be honest that was not my motivation for becoming vegetarian, it just seemed wrong to me to kill another living thing just to eat it.
    Great post.
  • The Government briefing today seems to suggest inevitably lockdown 2.0 is in place to be announced this week.

    Want to offer odds on that ?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108

    I must be the only PBer in the PB fantasy league to have not picked Son.

    Some of you jammy gits also have Kane in your team, as captain.


    What’s the code for PB fantasy league? Or is it by invitation only?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    What a soft ball question...
    I still think he has less charisma than an empty crisp packet and fewer good ideas

    If he gets Labour back to power i agree with CHB LEG END!
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    Pulpstar said:

    I only play the hand egg fantasy leagues, I'm guessing the Son owners are happy in Fantasy Premier league today though :p

    No, we’re kicking ourselves for not captaining him, or Salah last week☹️
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Some of these puns are offal.
    They are mince, as Malcy and I might say.
This discussion has been closed.