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The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win? – politicalbetting.com
The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win? – politicalbetting.com
How many of these states will Trump win?TexasOhioGeorgiaNorth CarolinaFloridaArizonahttps://t.co/kjZmUREbjq election&utm_medium=direct&utm_content=cid:86422 pic.twitter.com/hjpXsHE20N
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For instance take 6 roulette wheels - If you knew they are bent to always land on a same colour but did not know which colour then the odds of red would still be even on any one wheel (ignore the zero ) - however the odds of getting red on 6 wheels would still be evens and not 1 in 64
a) Very occasionally bookies fail to spot a related contingency on two or more markets so you can get accumulators on giving great value.
b) more common , is that if you identify a common factor in a bet from a bet in the past ( a sort of related contingency across time) then it is a good indicator of where to look for value (as you have a past result). The more not obvious to most of the betting fraternity the more value
It's an intriguing bet. Well done Shadsy. I'm not tempted myself but I can see there might be some value for the punter especially if, like me, you think the answer must be 3, 4 or 5. I don't think Trump will lose Texas or Georgia, nor will he win Arizona. The difficulty lies with Florida and NC, and I can't call either, so I would have to back all three options. That means a big stake for a fairly small reward.
I'll leave it to others.
‘There is only one way unionists can stop independence’
... Today’s polling shows No losing in every single age-group under 55 years old. Unionists often took comfort in the propensity for people to become more unionist as they get older, but statistics amongst the middle-aged make for grim reading; only one-in-three under 50s will vote No.
... Only half of Labour voters tell pollsters they are certain to vote No. Two-thirds of Lib Dems say the same, and remarkably even up to 10 percent of Tories – which may amount to the electorally significant sum of 50,000-or-so voters – might consider voting Yes.
In short, there are no silver linings for unionism. There is no good news. Demographics dictate that the longer this goes, the more heavily unionists will lose. This is a game unionists cannot win.
... if voting No means status quo, independence is inevitable. But if it means something more like federalism, or what has been known as home rule, then that is a game they can win.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18731202.opinion-andy-maciver-one-way-unionists-can-stop-independence/
Only one problem with that: federalism is a turkey.
I can’t see much reason to expend much thought on this market, either.
...A recent poll by the Pew Research Center found that 66 percent of Joe Biden supporters said Supreme Court appointments were very important to their vote in the presidential election, compared with 61 percent of Trump backers — a reversal from 2016, when Trump fans saw them as more critical...
Take where I am now. An originally German speaking part of Austria, gifted to Italy because (for once) it chose the right side in World War I. Unusually for the post-WW1 treaties, ethnicity, language or the preference of the inhabitants didn’t come into it.
Mussolini did his best to encourage poor Italians from the south to relocate here, and they now comprise about a quarter of the population, but heavily concentrated in the few major towns. Almost every province is majority-German speaking, and once you go into the mountains you are effectively in Germany (with a few Ladino areas around Val Gardena, where I was last week).
The region is an autonomous province within Italy and the EU, run for years by the Südtiroler Volkspartei, which shows how Italian it isn’t. Yet, apart from the occasional bit of graffiti, and some secessionist parties that trundle along on combined about an eighth of the vote, it seems to work reasonably well.
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1307453007664214017
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1307453008758833152
- I learned that it was stupid to believe that a virus spread by direct human contact could possibly have its spread limited by restricting the amount of direct human contact.
- I learned that apparently people believe that the Government hasn't updated any data in any models since March and continue to use the pre-March data religiously.
- I learned that the best model of combating covid was "provably" to adopt one that involved worse economic impacts than your neighbours, having fewer freedoms than your neighbours for several months (ie since mid-May) and ten times the death rate of your neighbours.
- I learned that when the architects of such models say that every country is different, that the only reason they could follow their model in the first place was due to a slower initial increase in their country and in the UK the far faster initial increase meant that other measures obviously had to be considered, and that their model really consisted of finding a level where restrictions meant the spread wasn't exploding AND NOT REDUCING FROM THERE, he meant that actually we should have done exactly what they did and magically things would somehow have been better for us.
It was a bit of an eye-opener.
The UK is not a federation and will never be one.
Italy is not a federation and will never be one.
Südtirol is a province and always has been, whereas Scotland is a country and always has been.
A typical PB Unionist post: absolute guff from beginning to end.
In France and Spain cases are soaring to almost 15,000 but deaths are certainly not rising correspondingly.
And Sweden has very few cases or deaths. D
What we are seeing is the economy being destroyed and liberties being slashed to salvage the reputations and power of a government and a scientific advice group that has got this pandemic monstrously wrong.
The Brady bunch can see the implications for the conservatives over the longer term and is moving to clip Johnson's wings.
The tories better hope the bunch succeed.
I could easily write a seminal article on “There is only one way unionists can stop independence”. Unlike Maciver’s useless article, my recommendations would be implementable, realistic and effective. Incredibly difficult and costly, requiring huge amounts of energy and fresh-thinking, but nevertheless implementable and effective.
For obvious reasons, I will never write nor publish said article. The morons must continue clutching at straws in the dark.
I've said it many times, the best thing for the government to do would be to give the world open access to all of the relevant data so the tech and banking industry build the models, not academics who clearly aren't up to the task.
Hopefully coupled with getting rid of Northern Ireland asap.
A company owned & controlled by Dominic Cummings paid £250,000 to Faculty, the AI firm that worked on Vote Leave, in 2018/2019.
Faculty also got the NHS #COVID contract alongside Palantir - a shadowy US AI firm owned by far-right billionaire, Peter Thiel.
The GOP voters in 16 saw Scalia being replaced by a liberal as a major threat, the liberal voters simply saw it as an opportunity.
The Democrat voters in 20 see RBG being replaced by a conservative as a major threat, the conservatives simply see it as an opportunity.
This lot couldn't organize the comms for a piss up in a brewery.
These people are just laughing in our faces.
The only sane explanation is they want to wreck the NHS so that private medicine can take over.
Why don't you do the rest of us a favour and stick your rudeness up your jacksie?
The key is that Tegnell says Sweden looked at Ferguson's model and didn't agree with the basic assumptions. All else followed from that.
One of them has been proved correct.
Can you please apply this common sense to your Johnson posts?
If it is a crime surely it is reasonable to sneak on people, and for the police to enforce it.
Also he can be quite funny.
Not only do 85% of Tories back Remain in the UK but so do 81% of LDs and 61% of Scottish Labour voters too
https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/18161256/Scotland-in-Union_Tables_180920.xlsx
Janet Daly, Telegraph
What was the point of Take Back Control if our MPs let the executive carry on without any debate?
https://twitter.com/coyleneil/status/1307599284578275328
Untouchable.
Everyone to blame except themselves.
What the f*ck do they teach at public schools these days? How to get out of responsibility for anything must be the main lesson of the day.
It's his favourite unelected bureaucrat, which would be delicious irony if we weren't so fucked
You couldn't make this stuff up without the use of mind altering drugs.
Not, of course, through the Govt's system.
My money's on Raab.
You cannot have a federated country where 80% of the population are in a single part of the country. And you can't split England up and no one likes no wishes to be controlled by their Neighbours.
Gateshead and Sunderland don't want to be overridden by Newcastle.
Sheffield doesn't want to be overridden by Leeds
Liverpool doesn't want to be overridden by Manchester...
And these are regions where to get appropriate Federated mass the councils would need to work together.
The idea that Swedes obey the rules and use a voluntary code of personal sense and keep their distance and so on has more merit.
But why aren't we debating this? Why is Parliament silent? Where is the discussion of the most important policy decisions the country had made since the War? Why are we repeating the same cycle again?
At last Graham Brady is making some moves in HoC. About time.
Or whether the near global policy of trying to reduce direct human contacts between non vulnerable groups to zero may in turn have significant downsides to overcoming the virus, for example through slower acquired population immunity and slower reproductive cycling of the virus, impeding mutation into less lethal strains.
Much less the significant wider health downsides of lockdown that the UK government and others have admitted to, with perhaps 2 deaths directly causes by lockdown for every 3 from covid in the case of the UK?
Or whether any lives saved and morbidities prevented from Covid have been worth the economic, social and democratic cost? Not just in the UK but developing economies, with 135m now at increased risk of starvation according to the UN?
It is easy to just accept Dominic Cummings’ simplistic three word slogans, be a good boy scout and adopt a sneering and superior tone to anyone that bemoans the futility and wider damage of lockdown. It’s somewhat more difficult to understand what the goal of government policy is right now, given the NHS was already successfully protected, the curve flattened, time was bought to deliver improved ICU outcomes and for uncertain reasons deaths are still lagging new “cases” in Europe to a far greater extent than earlier in the year.
Not a Unionist, and none of that is relevant to anything, but it is no guffier than anything it is replying to. And more correct.
Hunt of course wants it to be him not Raab which is why he is stirring
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1305406977170903040?s=20
Switzerland is 8m people in 26 different cantons.
Seem to remain rather wealthy and democratically stable with that setup.
Federal divisions much smaller than huge English regions are possible and desirable.