Are there any rumblings of disquiet on the Tory backbenches at all? I've switched away from the conservatives off the back of this crisis but think the over 50 support continues to hold firm (for whatever reason). I believe the governent suggesting the public are to blame for a second wave plays to this generation i.e. personal responsibility etc
It would appear for the moment that those new MPs who won their seats on the back of BoZo's "Get Brexit Done" are sticking with him for now, as he hasn't done that yet.
From Politico, and this was before yesterday’s sad news.
...A recent poll by the Pew Research Center found that 66 percent of Joe Biden supporters said Supreme Court appointments were very important to their vote in the presidential election, compared with 61 percent of Trump backers — a reversal from 2016, when Trump fans saw them as more critical...
It's logical considering who is being replaced both times.
The GOP voters in 16 saw Scalia being replaced by a liberal as a major threat, the liberal voters simply saw it as an opportunity.
The Democrat voters in 20 see RBG being replaced by a conservative as a major threat, the conservatives simply see it as an opportunity.
Except Obama recognised that the Senate was controlled by Republicans and chose Garland ("Garland is considered a judicial moderate and a centrist.") instead of a liberal judge.
Literally Gatland had been name checked by Republican Senators as a judge they would consider.
From Politico, and this was before yesterday’s sad news.
...A recent poll by the Pew Research Center found that 66 percent of Joe Biden supporters said Supreme Court appointments were very important to their vote in the presidential election, compared with 61 percent of Trump backers — a reversal from 2016, when Trump fans saw them as more critical...
It's logical considering who is being replaced both times.
The GOP voters in 16 saw Scalia being replaced by a liberal as a major threat, the liberal voters simply saw it as an opportunity.
The Democrat voters in 20 see RBG being replaced by a conservative as a major threat, the conservatives simply see it as an opportunity.
Over 60% of both seeing it important is not a big difference, however for evangelicals some of them may have stayed home this year after disillusion with Trump but now there is the chance of a pro life Justice they will vote and for Trump and the Republicans for Congress so the net basis is still for Trump
Her tenure was coming to an end, everybody knew that, therefore the chance of an anti abortion judge was already on the cards, nothing has really changed by her death in this respect. Out of interest why do you use the ‘pro life’ label rather than anti abortion, or even anti women’s right to choose?
The problem is most voters actually back Boris on the rule of 6, so this is not really a vote winner to oppose that
The rule of 6 will be in the dustbin of history by this time next week, and the public will have learnt yet another painful lesson about trusting Boris to stick to a plan. You can have a £10 charity bet on that if you like.
Interesting that Hunt picks up the shooting point which was a nonsense cooked up out of nothing by the Mirror as an anti-toff thing (you can do bloody anything in groups of 30 if its an organised sport). That's a conscious ploy to keep the red wall vote onside at the expense of the shire tories. Fair enough if he thinks that's the side his bread is buttered, but it looks a bit likethe Lab mistake of taking the core voter for granted.
Andy Maciver, former head of communications for the Scottish Conservatives:
‘There is only one way unionists can stop independence’
... Today’s polling shows No losing in every single age-group under 55 years old. Unionists often took comfort in the propensity for people to become more unionist as they get older, but statistics amongst the middle-aged make for grim reading; only one-in-three under 50s will vote No.
... Only half of Labour voters tell pollsters they are certain to vote No. Two-thirds of Lib Dems say the same, and remarkably even up to 10 percent of Tories – which may amount to the electorally significant sum of 50,000-or-so voters – might consider voting Yes.
In short, there are no silver linings for unionism. There is no good news. Demographics dictate that the longer this goes, the more heavily unionists will lose. This is a game unionists cannot win.
... if voting No means status quo, independence is inevitable. But if it means something more like federalism, or what has been known as home rule, then that is a game they can win.
Only one problem with that: federalism is a turkey.
It works well within the EU - that’s the point. And why Brexit will likely lead to the break up of the UK, as was warned at the time.
Take where I am now. An originally German speaking part of Austria, gifted to Italy because (for once) it chose the right side in World War I. Unusually for the post-WW1 treaties, ethnicity, language or the preference of the inhabitants didn’t come into it.
Mussolini did his best to encourage poor Italians from the south to relocate here, and they now comprise about a quarter of the population, but heavily concentrated in the few major towns. Almost every province is majority-German speaking, and once you go into the mountains you are effectively in Germany (with a few Ladino areas around Val Gardena, where I was last week).
The region is an autonomous province within Italy and the EU, run for years by the Südtiroler Volkspartei, which shows how Italian it isn’t. Yet, apart from the occasional bit of graffiti, and some secessionist parties that trundle along on combined about an eighth of the vote, it seems to work reasonably well.
Love skiing in the Sella Ronda. Wierd seeing Ompa bands though.
There is a radio station devoted to non stop Ookla
Last night this old woman cycles into the town square towing a trailer, and proceeded to set up her act. Which was part singing, part yodelling, and part playing some mouth organ contraption hanging round her neck, accompanied by alternatively ringing various small cow bells on the table in front of her on one side, or on the other either tapping or bowing some kind of mini dulcimer. It was, bizarre. She got lots of donations and I wasn't sure whether the locals liked it or admired or pitied her effort
The problem is most voters actually back Boris on the rule of 6, so it is not really a vote winner to oppose that
They may back him but will they comply when johnnies birthday comes around?
Why bother. It is already being undermined by the government panicking and saying it isn't enough before most of us have even really clocked that it is the new policy.
Reading through the thread last night, I learned a few things about covid (before quitting reading in a bit of depression).
- I learned that it was stupid to believe that a virus spread by direct human contact could possibly have its spread limited by restricting the amount of direct human contact.
- I learned that apparently people believe that the Government hasn't updated any data in any models since March and continue to use the pre-March data religiously.
- I learned that the best model of combating covid was "provably" to adopt one that involved worse economic impacts than your neighbours, having fewer freedoms than your neighbours for several months (ie since mid-May) and ten times the death rate of your neighbours.
- I learned that when the architects of such models say that every country is different, that the only reason they could follow their model in the first place was due to a slower initial increase in their country and in the UK the far faster initial increase meant that other measures obviously had to be considered, and that their model really consisted of finding a level where restrictions meant the spread wasn't exploding AND NOT REDUCING FROM THERE, he meant that actually we should have done exactly what they did and magically things would somehow have been better for us.
It was a bit of an eye-opener.
On the data models, it hasn't. There have been modifications to the old influenza model but ultimately it's basically the same decade old model written for a different type of outbreak. Unfortunately the government doesn't seem up to the task of figuring out where the virus is going next and where it has come from in real time.
That's my understanding. The model and its 13 year old code remain unchanged (apart from some cosmetics undertaken by a Microsoft team). Happy to be corrected.
The key is that Tegnell says Sweden looked at Ferguson's model and didn't agree with the basic assumptions. All else followed from that.
One of them has been proved correct.
In Sweden. I am unconvinced that in a much more densely populated country, with ornery inhabitants who won't do what they are told or what is good for them (as we are seeing) the Swedish approach would have panned out the same way. For a start, I doubt they had been inoculated with a couple of thousand separate strains of Corona from France, Italy and Spain by mid March. Our experience looks a lot more like France or Spain, a little less than Italy where they had a godawful outbreak in the North but seem to have managed to largely contain it there
Actually Sweden was hit by strains from outside. They have a 'Sports Break' around half term when a lot of them go skiing. I seem to recall that the week that this falls varies across the country and you could map spikes in cases the week after the week that was the sports break (if you see what I mean).
The idea that Swedes obey the rules and use a voluntary code of personal sense and keep their distance and so on has more merit.
But why aren't we debating this? Why is Parliament silent? Where is the discussion of the most important policy decisions the country had made since the War? Why are we repeating the same cycle again?
At last Graham Brady is making some moves in HoC. About time.
I suspect those, like you, hoping that parliament may intervene to stop the executive's draconian restriction on your liberties will be disappointed. Even if it comes to a debate, only a minority of Tory MPs would support the Brady line, while all the opposition parties would vote in favour of the proposed lockdown measures, whatever they are.
Reading through the thread last night, I learned a few things about covid (before quitting reading in a bit of depression).
- I learned that it was stupid to believe that a virus spread by direct human contact could possibly have its spread limited by restricting the amount of direct human contact.
- I learned that apparently people believe that the Government hasn't updated any data in any models since March and continue to use the pre-March data religiously.
- I learned that the best model of combating covid was "provably" to adopt one that involved worse economic impacts than your neighbours, having fewer freedoms than your neighbours for several months (ie since mid-May) and ten times the death rate of your neighbours.
- I learned that when the architects of such models say that every country is different, that the only reason they could follow their model in the first place was due to a slower initial increase in their country and in the UK the far faster initial increase meant that other measures obviously had to be considered, and that their model really consisted of finding a level where restrictions meant the spread wasn't exploding AND NOT REDUCING FROM THERE, he meant that actually we should have done exactly what they did and magically things would somehow have been better for us.
It was a bit of an eye-opener.
Have you not stopped to consider even for a moment whether the UK government’s lockdown policy increased or decreased direct human contacts with infected people for the most vulnerable (i.e. care home residents)?
Or whether the near global policy of trying to reduce direct human contacts between non vulnerable groups to zero may in turn have significant downsides to overcoming the virus, for example through slower acquired population immunity and slower reproductive cycling of the virus, impeding mutation into less lethal strains.
Much less the significant wider health downsides of lockdown that the UK government and others have admitted to, with perhaps 2 deaths directly causes by lockdown for every 3 from covid in the case of the UK?
Or whether any lives saved and morbidities prevented from Covid have been worth the economic, social and democratic cost? Not just in the UK but developing economies, with 135m now at increased risk of starvation according to the UN?
It is easy to just accept Dominic Cummings’ simplistic three word slogans, be a good boy scout and adopt a sneering and superior tone to anyone that bemoans the futility and wider damage of lockdown. It’s somewhat more difficult to understand what the goal of government policy is right now, given the NHS was already successfully protected, the curve flattened, time was bought to deliver improved ICU outcomes and for uncertain reasons deaths are still lagging new “cases” in Europe to a far greater extent than earlier in the year.
"It’s somewhat more difficult to understand what the goal of government policy is right now"
Absolutely.
The strong suspicion is that the policy is now zero-covid.
This is Tories for you: A company owned & controlled by Dominic Cummings paid £250,000 to Faculty, the AI firm that worked on Vote Leave, in 2018/2019.
Faculty also got the NHS #COVID contract alongside Palantir - a shadowy US AI firm owned by far-right billionaire, Peter Thiel.
As @Foxy said a few weeks back, this govt is the finest money can buy
Actually one of the shittest money can buy, but the only one available atm.
This why hasn't COBRA met...its because COBRA is for immediate one off unexpected events. They instead created the Joint Biosecurity Centre to oversee planning of everything Covid.
Why is Tom Harwood famous? He seems to me as bad as Owen Jones
He has a niche as a right-wing “young person” journalist. He’s interesting in a sense that he’s very “woke” as most young people are (support of LGBT+ etc) but obviously right wing on economic issues.
Boris is struggling and I cannot imagine he is enjoying any of this maelstrom of complex issues and I do regret we do not have Jeremy Hunt leading the nation at present. I hope for Boris's own sake that he decides to stand down in the new year but I will not join the witch-hunt as I really believe his personal experience of covid is having a big toll on his general health
Listening to Starmer on both Sophy and Marr and with a genuinely open mind I was very underwhelmed. On Marr in particular he was just trying to get through without seeming to upset anyone and I really do not know how he would address the issues of the day
Marr confirmed we need about one million tests a day to satisfy demand thousands of which are from children with seasonal colds. No country other than possibly China are at that level of testing and it is accepted we are testing higher than most of Europe. Starmer said we have known about this from the spring and we should have a 500,000 daily capacity by now but even that would be only half the demand
I agree with much of the criticism of Boris but on this forum there is also an underlying anti brexit narrative with the objective of delaying brexit with the hope that widespread chaos will see us seeking to re-join, and of course that is not going to happen when even Starmer has accepted brexit
I agree with much of the criticism of Boris but on this forum there is also an underlying anti brexit narrative with the objective of delaying brexit with the hope that widespread chaos will see us seeking to re-join, and of course that is not going to happen when even Starmer has accepted brexit
I don’t think this is true Big G. Brexit cannot be “delayed” as it has already happened.
The challenge in respect of the virus is the commencement of Universities over the next fortnight. My nephew is moving into his accommodation next Saturday. There are incredibly ornate arrangements for getting his keys but the reality is that we will then have thousands of house party equivalents across the country as flatmates, classmates, sports and hobby groups get to know each other. There is going to be an explosion of cases but the risks for those exposed are relatively to very low. Many will be asymptomatic and not hesitate to head back home to get some washing done, meet non University friends etc. Some they meet there will not be so fortunate but we will again have innumerable outbreaks across the country making test & trace impossible.
Frankly everything we are doing with the rule of 6, restrictions in restaurants and pubs is going to be completely and utterly overwhelmed by this. It's so obvious that even Hancock has seen it. Those who think that herd immunity, Sweden style, is the answer are about to have their hypothesis tested. By November I expect us to exceed our previous peak in terms of numbers of cases but hopefully not in terms of deaths or ICU admissions.
Should we stop it and ask that classes this term be remote? I'm genuinely not sure. These kids need to learn , socialise, get laid, grow up. They have already had their exams wreaked, are we really going to wreak what should be some of the best years of their lives as well?
This is Tories for you: A company owned & controlled by Dominic Cummings paid £250,000 to Faculty, the AI firm that worked on Vote Leave, in 2018/2019.
Faculty also got the NHS #COVID contract alongside Palantir - a shadowy US AI firm owned by far-right billionaire, Peter Thiel.
As @Foxy said a few weeks back, this govt is the finest money can buy
Actually one of the shittest money can buy, but the only one available atm.
Yes, if this is the best money can buy, we might as well give up on capitalism completely.
Starmer also says he does not want 'another divisive Scottish referendum' on independence
'Does not want' is by no means the same as ruling one out, which is what PM Johnson has said.
Well as the Tories have a majority of 80 until 2024 what he says only matters after then anyway
Thought at least one of those elected as a Tory had been expelled? Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Brexit has happened, I continue to think Brexit was the wrong course of action but Remain disappeared when Johnson won his mandate to deliver Brexit in 2019.
Now the questions about trade deals seem perfectly sensible to me. I support EEA, which is not remaining.
And the majority of Remainers I think oppose rejoin, the debate is settled and you won. Get over it!
Palantir isn't a shadowy AI firm. People just like to say that because they don't like the owner. It doesn't do anything particularly out of the ordinary.
Reading through the thread last night, I learned a few things about covid (before quitting reading in a bit of depression).
- I learned that it was stupid to believe that a virus spread by direct human contact could possibly have its spread limited by restricting the amount of direct human contact.
- I learned that apparently people believe that the Government hasn't updated any data in any models since March and continue to use the pre-March data religiously.
- I learned that the best model of combating covid was "provably" to adopt one that involved worse economic impacts than your neighbours, having fewer freedoms than your neighbours for several months (ie since mid-May) and ten times the death rate of your neighbours.
- I learned that when the architects of such models say that every country is different, that the only reason they could follow their model in the first place was due to a slower initial increase in their country and in the UK the far faster initial increase meant that other measures obviously had to be considered, and that their model really consisted of finding a level where restrictions meant the spread wasn't exploding AND NOT REDUCING FROM THERE, he meant that actually we should have done exactly what they did and magically things would somehow have been better for us.
It was a bit of an eye-opener.
Have you not stopped to consider even for a moment whether the UK government’s lockdown policy increased or decreased direct human contacts with infected people for the most vulnerable (i.e. care home residents)?
Or whether the near global policy of trying to reduce direct human contacts between non vulnerable groups to zero may in turn have significant downsides to overcoming the virus, for example through slower acquired population immunity and slower reproductive cycling of the virus, impeding mutation into less lethal strains.
Much less the significant wider health downsides of lockdown that the UK government and others have admitted to, with perhaps 2 deaths directly causes by lockdown for every 3 from covid in the case of the UK?
Or whether any lives saved and morbidities prevented from Covid have been worth the economic, social and democratic cost? Not just in the UK but developing economies, with 135m now at increased risk of starvation according to the UN?
It is easy to just accept Dominic Cummings’ simplistic three word slogans, be a good boy scout and adopt a sneering and superior tone to anyone that bemoans the futility and wider damage of lockdown. It’s somewhat more difficult to understand what the goal of government policy is right now, given the NHS was already successfully protected, the curve flattened, time was bought to deliver improved ICU outcomes and for uncertain reasons deaths are still lagging new “cases” in Europe to a far greater extent than earlier in the year.
"It’s somewhat more difficult to understand what the goal of government policy is right now"
Absolutely.
The strong suspicion is that the policy is now zero-covid.
I don't think so.
Zero-covid would entail getting R down to zero.
The ambition since the summer seems to have been to keep R about 1 until a vaccine becomes available, keepng the virus contained and minimal - neither exponentially growing, nor zero.
Brexit has happened, I continue to think Brexit was the wrong course of action but Remain disappeared when Johnson won his mandate to deliver Brexit in 2019.
Now the questions about trade deals seem perfectly sensible to me. I support EEA, which is not remaining.
And the majority of Remainers I think oppose rejoin, the debate is settled and you won. Get over it!
Interesting to note though Starmer ruled out No Deal on Marr this morning, so his Brexit position is now that of May's last year ie a post Brexit trade deal with the EU must be done while Boris' Brexit position has moved closer to that of Farage ie ready to go to No Deal if necessary
The challenge in respect of the virus is the commencement of Universities over the next fortnight. My nephew is moving into his accommodation next Saturday. There are incredibly ornate arrangements for getting his keys but the reality is that we will then have thousands of house party equivalents across the country as flatmates, classmates, sports and hobby groups get to know each other. There is going to be an explosion of cases but the risks for those exposed are relatively to very low. Many will be asymptomatic and not hesitate to head back home to get some washing done, meet non University friends etc. Some they meet there will not be so fortunate but we will again have innumerable outbreaks across the country making test & trace impossible.
Frankly everything we are doing with the rule of 6, restrictions in restaurants and pubs is going to be completely and utterly overwhelmed by this. It's so obvious that even Hancock has seen it. Those who think that herd immunity, Sweden style, is the answer are about to have their hypothesis tested. By November I expect us to exceed our previous peak in terms of numbers of cases but hopefully not in terms of deaths or ICU admissions.
Should we stop it and ask that classes this term be remote? I'm genuinely not sure. These kids need to learn , socialise, get laid, grow up. They have already had their exams wreaked, are we really going to wreak what should be some of the best years of their lives as well?
Mr L, last para surely should have 'wrecked' and 'wreck'? But in principle I agree.
In this context I wonder about the disruption caused to many lives by military service, both necessary (war-time) and unnecessary (some at least of National Service). Will these young people look back on this as a time of challenge and coping?
Brexit has happened, I continue to think Brexit was the wrong course of action but Remain disappeared when Johnson won his mandate to deliver Brexit in 2019.
Now the questions about trade deals seem perfectly sensible to me. I support EEA, which is not remaining.
And the majority of Remainers I think oppose rejoin, the debate is settled and you won. Get over it!
Interesting to note though Starmer ruled out No Deal on Marr this morning, so his Brexit position is now that of May's last year ie a post Brexit trade deal with the EU must be done while Boris' Brexit position has moved closer to that of Farage ie ready to go to No Deal if necessary
Brexit has happened, I continue to think Brexit was the wrong course of action but Remain disappeared when Johnson won his mandate to deliver Brexit in 2019.
Now the questions about trade deals seem perfectly sensible to me. I support EEA, which is not remaining.
And the majority of Remainers I think oppose rejoin, the debate is settled and you won. Get over it!
Interesting to note though Starmer ruled out No Deal on Marr this morning, so his Brexit position is now that of May's last year ie a post Brexit trade deal with the EU must be done while Boris' Brexit position has moved closer to that of Farage ie ready to go to No Deal if necessary
Starmer is following the position Johnson was elected on.
I personally support EEA but I can see why Starmer is holding Johnson to promises he made.
Starmer also says he does not want 'another divisive Scottish referendum' on independence
'Does not want' is by no means the same as ruling one out, which is what PM Johnson has said.
Well as the Tories have a majority of 80 until 2024 what he says only matters after then anyway
Thought at least one of those elected as a Tory had been expelled? Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Unless polls consistently come out showing a 20% +Tory lead for six months, very unlikely now, there will not be an election until 2024, that is guaranteed
Brexit has happened, I continue to think Brexit was the wrong course of action but Remain disappeared when Johnson won his mandate to deliver Brexit in 2019.
Now the questions about trade deals seem perfectly sensible to me. I support EEA, which is not remaining.
And the majority of Remainers I think oppose rejoin, the debate is settled and you won. Get over it!
Interesting to note though Starmer ruled out No Deal on Marr this morning, so his Brexit position is now that of May's last year ie a post Brexit trade deal with the EU must be done while Boris' Brexit position has moved closer to that of Farage ie ready to go to No Deal if necessary
I'm not quite Starmer just expects a deal which is a problem as Boris won the last election on the basis of his agreement (which he is now backing away from) and his oven ready deal.
All Starmer is saying to Boris is give us the deal you promised
The challenge in respect of the virus is the commencement of Universities over the next fortnight. My nephew is moving into his accommodation next Saturday. There are incredibly ornate arrangements for getting his keys but the reality is that we will then have thousands of house party equivalents across the country as flatmates, classmates, sports and hobby groups get to know each other. There is going to be an explosion of cases but the risks for those exposed are relatively to very low. Many will be asymptomatic and not hesitate to head back home to get some washing done, meet non University friends etc. Some they meet there will not be so fortunate but we will again have innumerable outbreaks across the country making test & trace impossible.
Frankly everything we are doing with the rule of 6, restrictions in restaurants and pubs is going to be completely and utterly overwhelmed by this. It's so obvious that even Hancock has seen it. Those who think that herd immunity, Sweden style, is the answer are about to have their hypothesis tested. By November I expect us to exceed our previous peak in terms of numbers of cases but hopefully not in terms of deaths or ICU admissions.
Should we stop it and ask that classes this term be remote? I'm genuinely not sure. These kids need to learn , socialise, get laid, grow up. They have already had their exams wreaked, are we really going to wreak what should be some of the best years of their lives as well?
Mr J, last line surely should have 'wrecked' and 'wreck'?
In this context I wonder about the disruption caused to many lives by military service, both necessary (war-time) and unnecessary (some at least of National Service).
Palantir isn't a shadowy AI firm. People just like to say that because they don't like the owner. It doesn't do anything particularly out of the ordinary.
Was there an open procurement process so that its record could be properly scrutinised and measured against clear criteria? Were other firms allowed to bid?
Those are the issues. Much like the appointment of Dido Harding, who is rightly getting a kicking in the press today, as she did on here a couple of weeks ago - much to the derision of some on here.
Reading through the thread last night, I learned a few things about covid (before quitting reading in a bit of depression).
- I learned that it was stupid to believe that a virus spread by direct human contact could possibly have its spread limited by restricting the amount of direct human contact.
- I learned that apparently people believe that the Government hasn't updated any data in any models since March and continue to use the pre-March data religiously.
- I learned that the best model of combating covid was "provably" to adopt one that involved worse economic impacts than your neighbours, having fewer freedoms than your neighbours for several months (ie since mid-May) and ten times the death rate of your neighbours.
- I learned that when the architects of such models say that every country is different, that the only reason they could follow their model in the first place was due to a slower initial increase in their country and in the UK the far faster initial increase meant that other measures obviously had to be considered, and that their model really consisted of finding a level where restrictions meant the spread wasn't exploding AND NOT REDUCING FROM THERE, he meant that actually we should have done exactly what they did and magically things would somehow have been better for us.
It was a bit of an eye-opener.
Have you not stopped to consider even for a moment whether the UK government’s lockdown policy increased or decreased direct human contacts with infected people for the most vulnerable (i.e. care home residents)?
Or whether the near global policy of trying to reduce direct human contacts between non vulnerable groups to zero may in turn have significant downsides to overcoming the virus, for example through slower acquired population immunity and slower reproductive cycling of the virus, impeding mutation into less lethal strains.
Much less the significant wider health downsides of lockdown that the UK government and others have admitted to, with perhaps 2 deaths directly causes by lockdown for every 3 from covid in the case of the UK?
Or whether any lives saved and morbidities prevented from Covid have been worth the economic, social and democratic cost? Not just in the UK but developing economies, with 135m now at increased risk of starvation according to the UN?
It is easy to just accept Dominic Cummings’ simplistic three word slogans, be a good boy scout and adopt a sneering and superior tone to anyone that bemoans the futility and wider damage of lockdown. It’s somewhat more difficult to understand what the goal of government policy is right now, given the NHS was already successfully protected, the curve flattened, time was bought to deliver improved ICU outcomes and for uncertain reasons deaths are still lagging new “cases” in Europe to a far greater extent than earlier in the year.
"It’s somewhat more difficult to understand what the goal of government policy is right now"
Absolutely.
The strong suspicion is that the policy is now zero-covid.
I don't think so.
Zero-covid would entail getting R down to zero.
The ambition since the summer seems to have been to keep R about 1 until a vaccine becomes available, keepng the virus contained and minimal - neither exponentially growing, nor zero.
No the battle since the beginning has been to keep R as low as possible and definitely below 1. The return of children to school seems to have brought it back above 1...
Palantir isn't a shadowy AI firm. People just like to say that because they don't like the owner. It doesn't do anything particularly out of the ordinary.
Is this back on the conspiracy of plantir works with Faculty which works with the NHS stuff that Carole Conspiracy has been outraged about, despite her employer being an investor in Faculty.
Starmer also says he does not want 'another divisive Scottish referendum' on independence
'Does not want' is by no means the same as ruling one out, which is what PM Johnson has said.
Well as the Tories have a majority of 80 until 2024 what he says only matters after then anyway
Thought at least one of those elected as a Tory had been expelled? Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Unless polls consistently come out showing a 20% +Tory lead for six months, very unlikely now, there will not be an election until 2024, that is guaranteed
Is It your belief that if the PM changes, they should seek their own mandate as May and Johnson both did?
Boris is always going to get short shrift from the “48%”, which after all he has spent the last several years baiting, provoking, demonising etc. To some extent therefore, his Covid “management” is eagerly scrutinised for signs of failure by Remainers who want to be “proven right”.
Don’t think anyone is trying to “stop Brexit” anymore though. That’s just a Mark Francois wank fantasy (and whatever did happen to him?).
What’s interesting though is the criticism of Boris is increasingly from the right; the Spectator, the Mail, the Telegraph.
Boris was never fit for the job, and now that the appalling lack of grip on corona is telling, it’s becoming more acceptable to say so outright.
I agree with much of the criticism of Boris but on this forum there is also an underlying anti brexit narrative with the objective of delaying brexit with the hope that widespread chaos will see us seeking to re-join, and of course that is not going to happen when even Starmer has accepted brexit
I don’t think this is true Big G. Brexit cannot be “delayed” as it has already happened.
The final status can be delayed if enough pressure results in a further extension which the EU would grant in a heart beat. The one obstacle to this is Boris but it is still not impossible to think an emergency extension of some kind will be agreed.
The challenge in respect of the virus is the commencement of Universities over the next fortnight. My nephew is moving into his accommodation next Saturday. There are incredibly ornate arrangements for getting his keys but the reality is that we will then have thousands of house party equivalents across the country as flatmates, classmates, sports and hobby groups get to know each other. There is going to be an explosion of cases but the risks for those exposed are relatively to very low. Many will be asymptomatic and not hesitate to head back home to get some washing done, meet non University friends etc. Some they meet there will not be so fortunate but we will again have innumerable outbreaks across the country making test & trace impossible.
Frankly everything we are doing with the rule of 6, restrictions in restaurants and pubs is going to be completely and utterly overwhelmed by this. It's so obvious that even Hancock has seen it. Those who think that herd immunity, Sweden style, is the answer are about to have their hypothesis tested. By November I expect us to exceed our previous peak in terms of numbers of cases but hopefully not in terms of deaths or ICU admissions.
Should we stop it and ask that classes this term be remote? I'm genuinely not sure. These kids need to learn , socialise, get laid, grow up. They have already had their exams wreaked, are we really going to wreak what should be some of the best years of their lives as well?
Mr J, last line surely should have 'wrecked' and 'wreck'?
In this context I wonder about the disruption caused to many lives by military service, both necessary (war-time) and unnecessary (some at least of National Service).
It's Mr L but yes, you are right.
Mea culpa; as you'll see I corrected it, but you were too quick for me!
Starmer also says he does not want 'another divisive Scottish referendum' on independence
'Does not want' is by no means the same as ruling one out, which is what PM Johnson has said.
Well as the Tories have a majority of 80 until 2024 what he says only matters after then anyway
Thought at least one of those elected as a Tory had been expelled? Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Unless polls consistently come out showing a 20% +Tory lead for six months, very unlikely now, there will not be an election until 2024, that is guaranteed
Is It your belief that if the PM changes, they should seek their own mandate as May and Johnson both did?
No, Brown did not, Major did not, Callaghan did not, Home did not, May and Johnson were the exception to the rule and nor should any successor for Boris, however as I have said I remain of the view Boris will stay Tory leader and PM until 2024
Starmer also says he does not want 'another divisive Scottish referendum' on independence
'Does not want' is by no means the same as ruling one out, which is what PM Johnson has said.
Well as the Tories have a majority of 80 until 2024 what he says only matters after then anyway
Thought at least one of those elected as a Tory had been expelled? Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Unless polls consistently come out showing a 20% +Tory lead for six months, very unlikely now, there will not be an election until 2024, that is guaranteed
Is It your belief that if the PM changes, they should seek their own mandate as May and Johnson both did?
No, Brown did not, Major did not and nor will should any successor for Boris, however as I have said I remain of the view Boris will stay Tory leader and PM until 2024
Brown was widely criticised for not and likely lost support in the polls as a result of not having an election.
Ironically enough he inherited a similar position to what Johnson's successor might.
I agree with much of the criticism of Boris but on this forum there is also an underlying anti brexit narrative with the objective of delaying brexit with the hope that widespread chaos will see us seeking to re-join, and of course that is not going to happen when even Starmer has accepted brexit
I don’t think this is true Big G. Brexit cannot be “delayed” as it has already happened.
The final status can be delayed if enough pressure results in a further extension which the EU would grant in a heart beat. The one obstacle to this is Boris but it is still not impossible to think an emergency extension of some kind will be agreed.
Yeah but that’s not “delaying Brexit”. That’s delaying our final trade deal with the EU, which will be in flux anyway for the foreseeable.
Are there any rumblings of disquiet on the Tory backbenches at all? I've switched away from the conservatives off the back of this crisis but think the over 50 support continues to hold firm (for whatever reason). I believe the governent suggesting the public are to blame for a second wave plays to this generation i.e. personal responsibility etc
It would appear for the moment that those new MPs who won their seats on the back of BoZo's "Get Brexit Done" are sticking with him for now, as he hasn't done that yet.
Once that goes tits up, he's toast I think.
Care to put a date on it, just so that the accuracy of your prediction can be admired by all?
Palantir isn't a shadowy AI firm. People just like to say that because they don't like the owner. It doesn't do anything particularly out of the ordinary.
Was there an open procurement process so that its record could be properly scrutinised and measured against clear criteria? Were other firms allowed to bid?
Those are the issues. Much like the appointment of Dido Harding, who is rightly getting a kicking in the press today, as she did on here a couple of weeks ago - much to the derision of some on here.
On Palantir one of the issues is that they don't exactly have a lot of competitors for what they do, at least none with their level of bandwidth. If it went to tender we'd end up being bound by law to go with the lowest bid that would come from a lesser firm like Serco who specialise in making it up as they go along.
On Harding, well it does seem as though the media is about two weeks behind PB.
I agree with much of the criticism of Boris but on this forum there is also an underlying anti brexit narrative with the objective of delaying brexit with the hope that widespread chaos will see us seeking to re-join, and of course that is not going to happen when even Starmer has accepted brexit
I don’t think this is true Big G. Brexit cannot be “delayed” as it has already happened.
The final status can be delayed if enough pressure results in a further extension which the EU would grant in a heart beat. The one obstacle to this is Boris but it is still not impossible to think an emergency extension of some kind will be agreed.
We left the EU in January. You need to get over it.
I remember when I said Dido Harding would be an absolute disaster and that she'd failed upwards.
I recall being laughed at and attacked on here.
Were you? I don't remember many people, if any, saying they thought she was a good appointment. The overwhelming majority of posters quickly pointed out her disastrous time at Talk Talk.
I remember when I said Dido Harding would be an absolute disaster and that she'd failed upwards.
I recall being laughed at and attacked on here.
Not by everyone - I know I agreed as did others - those who laughed and attacked would be the usual muppets - Philip and HYUFD - I can't remember who else.
Brexit has happened, I continue to think Brexit was the wrong course of action but Remain disappeared when Johnson won his mandate to deliver Brexit in 2019.
Now the questions about trade deals seem perfectly sensible to me. I support EEA, which is not remaining.
And the majority of Remainers I think oppose rejoin, the debate is settled and you won. Get over it!
Interesting to note though Starmer ruled out No Deal on Marr this morning, so his Brexit position is now that of May's last year ie a post Brexit trade deal with the EU must be done while Boris' Brexit position has moved closer to that of Farage ie ready to go to No Deal if necessary
I'm not quite Starmer just expects a deal which is a problem as Boris won the last election on the basis of his agreement (which he is now backing away from) and his oven ready deal.
All Starmer is saying to Boris is give us the deal you promised
Boris also promised in the Tory manifesto to do a trade deal that regained control over UK fishing waters and ended EU sovereignty over UK law and if not to end the implementation period regardless, without the EU conceding on that there will therefore be no trade deal
The challenge in respect of the virus is the commencement of Universities over the next fortnight. My nephew is moving into his accommodation next Saturday. There are incredibly ornate arrangements for getting his keys but the reality is that we will then have thousands of house party equivalents across the country as flatmates, classmates, sports and hobby groups get to know each other. There is going to be an explosion of cases but the risks for those exposed are relatively to very low. Many will be asymptomatic and not hesitate to head back home to get some washing done, meet non University friends etc. Some they meet there will not be so fortunate but we will again have innumerable outbreaks across the country making test & trace impossible.
Frankly everything we are doing with the rule of 6, restrictions in restaurants and pubs is going to be completely and utterly overwhelmed by this. It's so obvious that even Hancock has seen it. Those who think that herd immunity, Sweden style, is the answer are about to have their hypothesis tested. By November I expect us to exceed our previous peak in terms of numbers of cases but hopefully not in terms of deaths or ICU admissions.
Should we stop it and ask that classes this term be remote? I'm genuinely not sure. These kids need to learn , socialise, get laid, grow up. They have already had their exams wreaked, are we really going to wreak what should be some of the best years of their lives as well?
I was speaking to my niece in Scotland yesterday who is at University training as a physiotherapist and she said her course in Glasgow is online only until Christmas and of course it could continue deep into 2021. I asked her how she was finding it and she said it was OK but she was struggling without the practical sessions and for a physio that does make sense
Starmer also says he does not want 'another divisive Scottish referendum' on independence
'Does not want' is by no means the same as ruling one out, which is what PM Johnson has said.
Well as the Tories have a majority of 80 until 2024 what he says only matters after then anyway
Thought at least one of those elected as a Tory had been expelled? Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Unless polls consistently come out showing a 20% +Tory lead for six months, very unlikely now, there will not be an election until 2024, that is guaranteed
Is It your belief that if the PM changes, they should seek their own mandate as May and Johnson both did?
No, Brown did not, Major did not, Callaghan did not, Home did not, May and Johnson were the exception to the rule and nor should any successor for Boris, however as I have said I remain of the view Boris will stay Tory leader and PM until 2024
You don't think that the present party will split into Conservatives and Johnsonites?
Palantir isn't a shadowy AI firm. People just like to say that because they don't like the owner. It doesn't do anything particularly out of the ordinary.
Was there an open procurement process so that its record could be properly scrutinised and measured against clear criteria? Were other firms allowed to bid?
Those are the issues. Much like the appointment of Dido Harding, who is rightly getting a kicking in the press today, as she did on here a couple of weeks ago - much to the derision of some on here.
On Palantir one of the issues is that they don't exactly have a lot of competitors for what they do, at least none with their level of bandwidth. If it went to tender we'd end up being bound by law to go with the lowest bid that would come from a lesser firm like Serco who specialise in making it up as they go along.
On Harding, well it does seem as though the media is about two weeks behind PB.
Oh come off it: dispensing with a proper procurement process on the basis that there is no competitor is a pathetic excuse.
There is no way the government are following the science on this shop your neighbour to the plod. I am not world expert on behavioural science, but there is zero chance they recommend nationwide adherence to a policy such as the rule of 6 using the threat of a curtain twitcher dobbing you in. It has to be all about think of granny, think of your neighbour with an underlying condition, etc, showing scenes of people in hospital struggling to breath.
Starmer also says he does not want 'another divisive Scottish referendum' on independence
'Does not want' is by no means the same as ruling one out, which is what PM Johnson has said.
Well as the Tories have a majority of 80 until 2024 what he says only matters after then anyway
Thought at least one of those elected as a Tory had been expelled? Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Unless polls consistently come out showing a 20% +Tory lead for six months, very unlikely now, there will not be an election until 2024, that is guaranteed
Is It your belief that if the PM changes, they should seek their own mandate as May and Johnson both did?
No, Brown did not, Major did not, Callaghan did not, Home did not, May and Johnson were the exception to the rule and nor should any successor for Boris, however as I have said I remain of the view Boris will stay Tory leader and PM until 2024
You don't think that the present party will split into Conservatives and Johnsonites?
No, no more than Labour split into Labour and Corbynites
I remember when I said Dido Harding would be an absolute disaster and that she'd failed upwards.
I recall being laughed at and attacked on here.
Were you? I don't remember many people, if any, saying they thought she was a good appointment. The overwhelming majority of posters quickly pointed out her disastrous time at Talk Talk.
I was told TalkTalk was irrelevant as it wasn't her fault it was hacked. And that technical experience didn't matter for her new role.
Management experience seemingly wasn't important either
Brexit has happened, I continue to think Brexit was the wrong course of action but Remain disappeared when Johnson won his mandate to deliver Brexit in 2019.
Now the questions about trade deals seem perfectly sensible to me. I support EEA, which is not remaining.
And the majority of Remainers I think oppose rejoin, the debate is settled and you won. Get over it!
Actually I voted remain
And there are very many who want to see brexit fail and are encouraging that failure so we can rejoin
Palantir isn't a shadowy AI firm. People just like to say that because they don't like the owner. It doesn't do anything particularly out of the ordinary.
Was there an open procurement process so that its record could be properly scrutinised and measured against clear criteria? Were other firms allowed to bid?
Those are the issues. Much like the appointment of Dido Harding, who is rightly getting a kicking in the press today, as she did on here a couple of weeks ago - much to the derision of some on here.
On Palantir one of the issues is that they don't exactly have a lot of competitors for what they do, at least none with their level of bandwidth. If it went to tender we'd end up being bound by law to go with the lowest bid that would come from a lesser firm like Serco who specialise in making it up as they go along.
On Harding, well it does seem as though the media is about two weeks behind PB.
Oh come off it: dispensing with a proper procurement process on the basis that there is no competitor is a pathetic excuse.
Over the years when I have got more than enough work on my reaction to procurement processes is I'll wait for you to come back when they've screwed up...
Starmer says he would get a Deal with the EU, pretty much any Deal it seems they offer but would never back No Deal and also suggests he would compromise with the EU on state aid
He is never going to win an election with that sort of calm and rational approach.
Brexit has happened, I continue to think Brexit was the wrong course of action but Remain disappeared when Johnson won his mandate to deliver Brexit in 2019.
Now the questions about trade deals seem perfectly sensible to me. I support EEA, which is not remaining.
And the majority of Remainers I think oppose rejoin, the debate is settled and you won. Get over it!
Actually I voted remain
And there are very many who want to see brexit fail and are encouraging that failure so we can rejoin
Who here wants to rejoin the EU? Even in the country it has virtually no support.
I don't want Brexit to fail but I can't see how it is going to succeed. Can you genuinely point to any evidence the Tories will make a success of it when you yourself admit Johnson is doing a terrible job?
I remember when I said Dido Harding would be an absolute disaster and that she'd failed upwards.
I recall being laughed at and attacked on here.
Were you? I don't remember many people, if any, saying they thought she was a good appointment. The overwhelming majority of posters quickly pointed out her disastrous time at Talk Talk.
I was told TalkTalk was irrelevant as it wasn't her fault it was hacked. And that technical experience didn't matter for her new role.
Management experience seemingly wasn't important either
I think you are projecting a small number of posters views. I think all the regulars who have any experience in tech and business were head in hands at what a terrible decision it was, like the choices made over the app.
Starmer also says he does not want 'another divisive Scottish referendum' on independence
'Does not want' is by no means the same as ruling one out, which is what PM Johnson has said.
Well as the Tories have a majority of 80 until 2024 what he says only matters after then anyway
Thought at least one of those elected as a Tory had been expelled? Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Unless polls consistently come out showing a 20% +Tory lead for six months, very unlikely now, there will not be an election until 2024, that is guaranteed
Is It your belief that if the PM changes, they should seek their own mandate as May and Johnson both did?
No, Brown did not, Major did not and nor will should any successor for Boris, however as I have said I remain of the view Boris will stay Tory leader and PM until 2024
Brown was widely criticised for not and likely lost support in the polls as a result of not having an election.
Ironically enough he inherited a similar position to what Johnson's successor might.
Brown made the sensible decision, he had a comfortable majority of 66 and therefore would have been an idiot to risk that at an early election, especially as the polls were neck and neck after the 2007 party conferences, in the end he got another 3 years as PM before losing power (while still preventing an outright Tory majority in 2010).
May and Boris were in a different scenario as May only had a small majority of 12 and Boris had no majority at all, the Tories now have a majority of 80 so are far closer to the position Labour were under when Brown took over ie very little to gain and everything to lose from an early election
The challenge in respect of the virus is the commencement of Universities over the next fortnight. My nephew is moving into his accommodation next Saturday. There are incredibly ornate arrangements for getting his keys but the reality is that we will then have thousands of house party equivalents across the country as flatmates, classmates, sports and hobby groups get to know each other. There is going to be an explosion of cases but the risks for those exposed are relatively to very low. Many will be asymptomatic and not hesitate to head back home to get some washing done, meet non University friends etc. Some they meet there will not be so fortunate but we will again have innumerable outbreaks across the country making test & trace impossible.
Frankly everything we are doing with the rule of 6, restrictions in restaurants and pubs is going to be completely and utterly overwhelmed by this. It's so obvious that even Hancock has seen it. Those who think that herd immunity, Sweden style, is the answer are about to have their hypothesis tested. By November I expect us to exceed our previous peak in terms of numbers of cases but hopefully not in terms of deaths or ICU admissions.
Should we stop it and ask that classes this term be remote? I'm genuinely not sure. These kids need to learn , socialise, get laid, grow up. They have already had their exams wreaked, are we really going to wreak what should be some of the best years of their lives as well?
I was speaking to my niece in Scotland yesterday who is at University training as a physiotherapist and she said her course in Glasgow is online only until Christmas and of course it could continue deep into 2021. I asked her how she was finding it and she said it was OK but she was struggling without the practical sessions and for a physio that does make sense
A friend of my wife's is a lecturer in catering and a chef. His online classes are basically how to work out a menu. How do you teach cooking remotely? Just hopeless.
My nephew is doing computing in Dundee. Their tutorials are in person but I think lectures will be remote (this is yet to be confirmed). 6 in his flat sharing cooking facilities. On the upside 3 of them are girls from Dublin!
Reading through the thread last night, I learned a few things about covid (before quitting reading in a bit of depression).
- I learned that it was stupid to believe that a virus spread by direct human contact could possibly have its spread limited by restricting the amount of direct human contact.
- I learned that apparently people believe that the Government hasn't updated any data in any models since March and continue to use the pre-March data religiously.
- I learned that the best model of combating covid was "provably" to adopt one that involved worse economic impacts than your neighbours, having fewer freedoms than your neighbours for several months (ie since mid-May) and ten times the death rate of your neighbours.
- I learned that when the architects of such models say that every country is different, that the only reason they could follow their model in the first place was due to a slower initial increase in their country and in the UK the far faster initial increase meant that other measures obviously had to be considered, and that their model really consisted of finding a level where restrictions meant the spread wasn't exploding AND NOT REDUCING FROM THERE, he meant that actually we should have done exactly what they did and magically things would somehow have been better for us.
It was a bit of an eye-opener.
Have you not stopped to consider even for a moment whether the UK government’s lockdown policy increased or decreased direct human contacts with infected people for the most vulnerable (i.e. care home residents)?
Or whether the near global policy of trying to reduce direct human contacts between non vulnerable groups to zero may in turn have significant downsides to overcoming the virus, for example through slower acquired population immunity and slower reproductive cycling of the virus, impeding mutation into less lethal strains.
Much less the significant wider health downsides of lockdown that the UK government and others have admitted to, with perhaps 2 deaths directly causes by lockdown for every 3 from covid in the case of the UK?
Or whether any lives saved and morbidities prevented from Covid have been worth the economic, social and democratic cost? Not just in the UK but developing economies, with 135m now at increased risk of starvation according to the UN?
It is easy to just accept Dominic Cummings’ simplistic three word slogans, be a good boy scout and adopt a sneering and superior tone to anyone that bemoans the futility and wider damage of lockdown. It’s somewhat more difficult to understand what the goal of government policy is right now, given the NHS was already successfully protected, the curve flattened, time was bought to deliver improved ICU outcomes and for uncertain reasons deaths are still lagging new “cases” in Europe to a far greater extent than earlier in the year.
Firstly, no-one on any side has given a definition of what is "lockdown" and what is "not lockdown." The term seems used for everything between literally welding people into their own homes, through the Indian lockdown, through the French lockdown, through our own lockdown, and even to the restrictions imposed. Lockdown means being able to go almost anywhere, but only allowed to mix with people in your own household and support bubbles, only use public transport to go to school or work, and pubs and restaurants having to close at 10pm.
That's a lockdown, apparently.
The entire care homes debacle was because idiots at the top decided they should compel care homes to accept covid-positive patients from hospitals. We've discussed this in the past.
And, yes, I have considered whether the slower acquired population immunity is an issue, but given the low sero-prevalence results in even the highest hit groups, those advocating the "acquired her immunity" strategy (which is equivalent to reacting to an oncoming army by letting them do whatever they want until they've run out of targets) have to handwave about far higher hidden immunity (and hide in the corner when specifics like the spread of covid on a large fishing vessel where people couldn't readily escape come up, where 90% of those without pre-existing antibodies came back infected).
We know that lockdown (as well as lockdown, lockdown, and lockdown, depending on which particular variety we'd like to blend into a single definition and use regardless of specifics) has negative effects. These were easily outweighed by the saving of public health and economy.
We've also seen that the much-touted "tradeoff" between economic and public health was fictitious; they reinforce rather than balance out. Those who decided early on that this tradeoff must exist continue to ignore it, of course.
Cummings is a twat who blew a hole in public acceptance of measures, the Government have been incompetently lurching between inconsistent messages and goals; that's something we can all agree on.
Starmer also says he does not want 'another divisive Scottish referendum' on independence
'Does not want' is by no means the same as ruling one out, which is what PM Johnson has said.
Well as the Tories have a majority of 80 until 2024 what he says only matters after then anyway
Thought at least one of those elected as a Tory had been expelled? Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Unless polls consistently come out showing a 20% +Tory lead for six months, very unlikely now, there will not be an election until 2024, that is guaranteed
Is It your belief that if the PM changes, they should seek their own mandate as May and Johnson both did?
No, Brown did not, Major did not and nor will should any successor for Boris, however as I have said I remain of the view Boris will stay Tory leader and PM until 2024
Brown was widely criticised for not and likely lost support in the polls as a result of not having an election.
Ironically enough he inherited a similar position to what Johnson's successor might.
Brown made the sensible decision, he had a comfortable majority of 66 and therefore would have been an idiot to risk that at an early election, especially as the polls were neck and neck after the 2007 party conferences, in the end he got another 3 years as PM before losing power (while still preventing an outright Tory majority in 2010).
May and Boris were in a different scenario as May only had a small majority of 12 and Boris had no majority at all, the Tories now have a majority of 80 so are far closer to the position Labour were under when Brown too over ie very little to gain and everything to lose from an early election
I recall a Boris Johnson (ring any bells?) criticising Brown strongly.
Palantir isn't a shadowy AI firm. People just like to say that because they don't like the owner. It doesn't do anything particularly out of the ordinary.
Was there an open procurement process so that its record could be properly scrutinised and measured against clear criteria? Were other firms allowed to bid?
Those are the issues. Much like the appointment of Dido Harding, who is rightly getting a kicking in the press today, as she did on here a couple of weeks ago - much to the derision of some on here.
On Palantir one of the issues is that they don't exactly have a lot of competitors for what they do, at least none with their level of bandwidth. If it went to tender we'd end up being bound by law to go with the lowest bid that would come from a lesser firm like Serco who specialise in making it up as they go along.
On Harding, well it does seem as though the media is about two weeks behind PB.
Oh come off it: dispensing with a proper procurement process on the basis that there is no competitor is a pathetic excuse.
Ok you go an find an public data ML specialist with the bandwidth to handle the brief. You're looking at possibly three companies, Google, Palantir and maybe IBM. Of the three Palantir is the most specialised and Google the least palatable given what kind of data sharing their contracts require and IBM are lightyears behind best practice in the sector.
If you don't want these companies doing it then it's going to the City and hiring 50-60 data analysts and data scientists and another 30-40 data engineers to back them up and bringing it all in house. That's a huge undertaking and would take years to bring together properly.
Comments
Once that goes tits up, he's toast I think.
And they still didn't hold hearings.
Interesting that Hunt picks up the shooting point which was a nonsense cooked up out of nothing by the Mirror as an anti-toff thing (you can do bloody anything in groups of 30 if its an organised sport). That's a conscious ploy to keep the red wall vote onside at the expense of the shire tories. Fair enough if he thinks that's the side his bread is buttered, but it looks a bit likethe Lab mistake of taking the core voter for granted.
Last night this old woman cycles into the town square towing a trailer, and proceeded to set up her act. Which was part singing, part yodelling, and part playing some mouth organ contraption hanging round her neck, accompanied by alternatively ringing various small cow bells on the table in front of her on one side, or on the other either tapping or bowing some kind of mini dulcimer. It was, bizarre. She got lots of donations and I wasn't sure whether the locals liked it or admired or pitied her effort
Absolutely.
The strong suspicion is that the policy is now zero-covid.
Why is Tom Harwood famous? He seems to me as bad as Owen Jones
Listening to Starmer on both Sophy and Marr and with a genuinely open mind I was very underwhelmed. On Marr in particular he was just trying to get through without seeming to upset anyone and I really do not know how he would address the issues of the day
Marr confirmed we need about one million tests a day to satisfy demand thousands of which are from children with seasonal colds. No country other than possibly China are at that level of testing and it is accepted we are testing higher than most of Europe. Starmer said we have known about this from the spring and we should have a 500,000 daily capacity by now but even that would be only half the demand
I agree with much of the criticism of Boris but on this forum there is also an underlying anti brexit narrative with the objective of delaying brexit with the hope that widespread chaos will see us seeking to re-join, and of course that is not going to happen when even Starmer has accepted brexit
Cato seemingly was absolutely right
Frankly everything we are doing with the rule of 6, restrictions in restaurants and pubs is going to be completely and utterly overwhelmed by this. It's so obvious that even Hancock has seen it. Those who think that herd immunity, Sweden style, is the answer are about to have their hypothesis tested. By November I expect us to exceed our previous peak in terms of numbers of cases but hopefully not in terms of deaths or ICU admissions.
Should we stop it and ask that classes this term be remote? I'm genuinely not sure. These kids need to learn , socialise, get laid, grow up. They have already had their exams wreaked, are we really going to wreak what should be some of the best years of their lives as well?
Must say I originally thought the next election wouldn't be until 2024; now I'm not so sure.
Brexit has happened, I continue to think Brexit was the wrong course of action but Remain disappeared when Johnson won his mandate to deliver Brexit in 2019.
Now the questions about trade deals seem perfectly sensible to me. I support EEA, which is not remaining.
And the majority of Remainers I think oppose rejoin, the debate is settled and you won. Get over it!
Zero-covid would entail getting R down to zero.
The ambition since the summer seems to have been to keep R about 1 until a vaccine becomes available, keepng the virus contained and minimal - neither exponentially growing, nor zero.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/517255-momentum-growing-among-republicans-for-supreme-court-vote-before-election-day
In this context I wonder about the disruption caused to many lives by military service, both necessary (war-time) and unnecessary (some at least of National Service). Will these young people look back on this as a time of challenge and coping?
I personally support EEA but I can see why Starmer is holding Johnson to promises he made.
All Starmer is saying to Boris is give us the deal you promised
Those are the issues. Much like the appointment of Dido Harding, who is rightly getting a kicking in the press today, as she did on here a couple of weeks ago - much to the derision of some on here.
Boris is always going to get short shrift from the “48%”, which after all he has spent the last several years baiting, provoking, demonising etc. To some extent therefore, his Covid “management” is eagerly scrutinised for signs of failure by Remainers who want to be “proven right”.
Don’t think anyone is trying to “stop Brexit” anymore though. That’s just a Mark Francois wank fantasy (and whatever did happen to him?).
What’s interesting though is the criticism of Boris is increasingly from the right; the Spectator, the Mail, the Telegraph.
Boris was never fit for the job, and now that the appalling lack of grip on corona is telling, it’s becoming more acceptable to say so outright.
I recall being laughed at and attacked on here.
Ironically enough he inherited a similar position to what Johnson's successor might.
On Harding, well it does seem as though the media is about two weeks behind PB.
He even tried to copy Boris having it!
If it emerges lockdowns were a bad idea, the big two/four parties were all in it together
https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1307604125857841152?s=21
It is of course possible to draw a direct line from the revanchist fantasy of Brexit to this latest lurch toward authoritarianism.
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1307429968192966669?s=21
My prediction record seems to have slightly improved since my shocker of 2019.
The more students get it, the closer we are to a degree of immunity.
Management experience seemingly wasn't important either
And there are very many who want to see brexit fail and are encouraging that failure so we can rejoin
There’s a war on, but we seem to prefer to nudge our way toward oblivion.
I don't want Brexit to fail but I can't see how it is going to succeed. Can you genuinely point to any evidence the Tories will make a success of it when you yourself admit Johnson is doing a terrible job?
May and Boris were in a different scenario as May only had a small majority of 12 and Boris had no majority at all, the Tories now have a majority of 80 so are far closer to the position Labour were under when Brown took over ie very little to gain and everything to lose from an early election
My nephew is doing computing in Dundee. Their tutorials are in person but I think lectures will be remote (this is yet to be confirmed). 6 in his flat sharing cooking facilities. On the upside 3 of them are girls from Dublin!
This is why I am not ever going to lead the Labour Party
That's a lockdown, apparently.
The entire care homes debacle was because idiots at the top decided they should compel care homes to accept covid-positive patients from hospitals. We've discussed this in the past.
And, yes, I have considered whether the slower acquired population immunity is an issue, but given the low sero-prevalence results in even the highest hit groups, those advocating the "acquired her immunity" strategy (which is equivalent to reacting to an oncoming army by letting them do whatever they want until they've run out of targets) have to handwave about far higher hidden immunity (and hide in the corner when specifics like the spread of covid on a large fishing vessel where people couldn't readily escape come up, where 90% of those without pre-existing antibodies came back infected).
We know that lockdown (as well as lockdown, lockdown, and lockdown, depending on which particular variety we'd like to blend into a single definition and use regardless of specifics) has negative effects. These were easily outweighed by the saving of public health and economy.
We've also seen that the much-touted "tradeoff" between economic and public health was fictitious; they reinforce rather than balance out. Those who decided early on that this tradeoff must exist continue to ignore it, of course.
Cummings is a twat who blew a hole in public acceptance of measures, the Government have been incompetently lurching between inconsistent messages and goals; that's something we can all agree on.
If you don't want these companies doing it then it's going to the City and hiring 50-60 data analysts and data scientists and another 30-40 data engineers to back them up and bringing it all in house. That's a huge undertaking and would take years to bring together properly.