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Does the Internal Markets Bill Compromise Work? – politicalbetting.com

But first, what does it actually do? The government’s compromise with Sir Bob Neill on his amendment does the following:-
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Betting relevance - fewer rebels, more likely to be expelled, fewer letters to 1922 in short term.
But with easier passage (through the Commons at least) more likely to blow up in the medium term?
The clause in the bill which is the subject of the compromise gives the government to regulate certain matters in relation to the supply of goods in certain situations, now subject to the approval of the Commons. There are other provisions in the bill seeking to ouster Judicial review. They may be problematic for reasons discussed on yesterday's thread in the context of Rozenburg's piece but they are not directly relevant to the compromise/amendment. I don't agree with this critique of the header.
A much more fundamental issue is not whether this compromise is acceptable to Parliament (it probably is) but whether it is acceptable to the EU. What we have said is that in certain circumstances we will breach the WA. We have not been entirely clear what those circumstances are. Lord Keen suggested, sensibly, that they would be where the EU had already breached the WA but he was shot down and resigned, a sad loss. So we are left with our negotiating partner and indeed future negotiating partners not knowing when we might choose to breach the agreement with the mechanics of doing so already in place. I am not entirely confident that this has improved our negotiating position, our credibility or, frankly, our coherence. But the compromise is probably an improvement, at least marginally less stupid than what we had before. At the least it makes it clear that any breach of the WA is not imminent.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-uk-emergency-powers-approval-government-652850
Never in my wildest nightmares did I ever consider I would celebrate the return, as Prime Minister, of Mrs Thatcher. But today, I would.
That a government, any government, should take extraordinary measures if required *to feed its own people* shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone.
And this compromise doesn't in any way make this idiotic plan any more palatable or intelligent. Johnson is a fool and I genuinely think this will come back to bite him very hard.
If he lasts that long.
Edit: This is why now. Because the negotiations are at their conclusion now.
The Hill: Why Election Day is going to be an utter sh!t-show.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q0gN_oRVya0
The amendment might have carried more weight if the government had to go through the dispute mechanism first before it could seek to activate those clauses .
Here we have the ridiculous situation where the government triggers those clauses at the same time as its supposed to be working to find a solution with the EU .
The Bill is DOA in the Lords and I can see this turning into a major stand off .
The government might like this drama to deflect from the virus , and the right wing papers will lap this up but that doesn’t really help matters when January 1st is fast approaching.
Prof Sunetra Gupta superb.
Jon Ashworth woeful.
Really?
When I advanced the arguments of Gutpa on here, which I have done continually since May of this year, poster after poster poured scorn on me for daring to question the COVID orthodoxy.
How does that look now?
This government does not deserve to be dug out of its hole so easily but my goodness the people it governs certainly do.
Meanwhile on Brexit it seems to me a deal is still in the offing, with those rumours that the EU will continue negotiating a FTA but insist it is only validated if all terms of the Withdrawal Agreement are upheld. Well duh... if there’s a FTA then this entire dispute about the Internal Markets Bill disappears.
Looks to me like there’s an increasing chance Johnson is about to roll a double six. Good for him and good for the rest of us. What follows who knows.
He has to register by 1200 BST.
How long does it take to travel from Madrid to Enfield via private jet?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1306778158016999431?s=20
Of course given the pressure the IM Bill has put on the EU to compromise . . . and given the swift funding and contracts the government have signed with both Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZenica . . . if a double six is rolled then it won't be entirely by accident.
Isn't that hypothesis falsified by our current experience?
How it looks now is like a rerun of climate denialism. Any and every possible explanation is declared the gospel truth, regardless of how contradictory the explanation is, or how often debunked by information, so that the unpleasant reality can be avoided.
Backfired when we turned around and said "ok that suits us fine" and left them in bad faith trying to row back on it.
Some things I've noted:
GOP 2020 registration has the strongest correlation with Trump vote
Lenoir county fits precisely onto the GOP 2020 - Trump margin best fit line, so not only is it precisely the county Biden needs to carry, it's also where a GOP reg vote in excess of 26.4% would be a good sign for Trump.
We know Dems are more likely to vote by mail, so early numbers aren't the be all and end all.
It voted 13,613 Trump to 12,634 Clinton
Current returns are 583 Democrats, 75 GOP, 96 unaffiliated. (GOP 10%)
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/8-in-10-dissatisfied-how-government-running-country
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8745245/Tottenham-place-Gareth-Bale-intensive-training-programme-ensure-fully-fit.html
The claim that the EU wants to blockade Northern Ireland is absurd. A blockade is an act of war under international law. When are Brexiteers going to stop being so hysterical and start sorting out the mess they've created? Time is running out.
However, they have now had 6 months to prep for this. I think the incomponence tag sticks forever with them.
You are obviously sadly unaware of Lex PowerPoint which means anything put in a presentation has the full legal heft of international law.
Harry potter was revealed a couple of days ago for PS5 and there was a different reaction on both social networks.
Twitter - we hate Harry Potter, it's a scandal the world should boycott this, transphobia!!!!!!!!!!!
Instagram - more Harry Potter, fuck yeah!
Which of these is connected to the real world?
And hence my Instagram test for cut through of political issues and I've started taking it into account for betting purposes. It's a huge tell as to whether the wider population is talking about a given issue or they aren't.
Thatcher had a strong work ethic and so was on top of her brief. Johnson isn't.
Thatcher genuinely believed what she was doing was for the best for the country. Even though obviously many people didn't share her view, it was at least a belief that what she was doing was for the common good. Johnson cares about nothing but his own self aggrandizement.
Thatcher had a political philosophy that guided her actions. Again many may have disagreed with that philosophy but it did at least lend a coherence to her actions and decisions. Johnson is too lazy and too dumb to follow any philosophy, political or otherwise.
Finally Thatcher surrounded herself with people who were generally both competent and intelligent. Fools didn't tend to last very long and there was at least still an element of personal responsibility for ones ministries and departments. No one in this government seems to have the faintest notion what personal responsibility means.
Or if you want to be optimistic we’re still in the first wave.
So that wedding I’m supposed to be attending next week....
Plus she also allowed herself to be overruled by the cabinet over the AIDS strategy, she didn’t get the hump, she backed it and sold it to the country.
https://twitter.com/thecoastguy/status/1306596232609972224?s=20
A more realistic comparison would be with a mediocre but not terrible PM, such as Tony Blair or David Cameron.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/
The last time I checked, none of these other countries were under the direct rule of World King Boris.
No tariffs ta.
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1306677018579394561?s=20
In reality I think you can compare Boris with the poorer PMs so Brown and May and Boris would still be found completely wanting
https://transportation.house.gov/imo/media/doc/2020.09.15 FINAL 737 MAX Report for Public Release.pdf
Maybe I’m just getting old, but IMO the gaming industry has gone like Hollywood in recent years - churning out the same old same old, with little innovation or risk taking going on. The only innovation has been the pricing models, that charge you £60 for the game but then need £60 more to actually get anything out of it.
Boris is playing dirty and hardball during a negotiation.
The EU have been playing dirty and hardball during a negotiation.
All is fair in love and war.
By this time next year we could have long since started our trade deal and have all been immunised from COVID19. If so, Boris will deserve credit on both counts - not that I expect he'll get it on either.
https://twitter.com/Geoffrey_Cox/status/1306876544342781954?s=20
https://twitter.com/ColinGeorgeBBC/status/1306896737286594560
Just because the EU have a certain deal with Canada, they are under no obligation to offer a "find Canada / replace UK" copy to us. And if UK negotiators really thought that was ever on offer, based on that powerpoint slide they are even more naive muppets than I thought.
The DD vision of Brexit was always about the UK getting something for nothing. The endgame looks like that plan is going as well as it deserves to.
Mother: There is one issue that really concerns me, little NIall. He has a history of violence and pyromania, so before we do childcare arrangements, I'd like us to confirm that neither of us are going to give him matches and that you'll keep your matches behind a locked door with checks on entry and exit - as we agreed before we split up.
Father: That's not reasonable, I'm divorcing you to get my freedom, if I can't give NIall matches then I have no freedom (not that I'm planning to give NIall matches, obviously, but I won't be locked into an agreement on that) and anyway, what we agreed, the checks going in and out of the storeroom, puts an unacceptable border within my family
Mother: It's really a red line for me, we can't even discuss childcare arrangements until you promise not to give him matches and to take the precautions agreed
Father: I'm going to call your bluff. If you don't give in on this I'm going to go and buy a load of matches now and, if you haven't given in on this by the end of the year, I'll give them to NIall
Now sure, it might work, the mother might feel compelled to give in to stop NIall setting fire to himself and/or others - particularly his big sister Emerald - but anyone observing this is going to think the father is a complete bell-end and probably not want to let their kids any where near him. You could say it does his reputation and his future prospects no good, even if he wins on this particular issue.
I should add that despite the constant whining the kids all made it to the top, even the seven year old, and were rewarded with a view that certainly shut them up!
Johnson exhibits none of them.
Again, many vehemently disagreed with it, but nevertheless it didn't change depending on the audience.
Johnson likes to please.