Madrid lock down and isolation getting closer I think as autonomous communities demand action.
The damage is already done - Andalucia running at 1500+ cases each day and all to allow a month on the coast in August! Frustratingly Andalucia asked for it themselves - we had some idiot in Almeria boasting yesterday how safe the beaches were this year.
The worldwide, but especially European and American, failure to prevent non-essential travel this year has been a huge contributor to the virus spread.
The go on your summer holidays / airbridge bollocks was insane. The UK could have said no, said in the UK, bolster the UK economy all summer. And then for those who did have to travel, have airport testing, quarantine and a follow up test i.e. like Iceland.
Instead it was go to Spain, France, Greece, mix with 1000s of other people from all over Europe and come back untested. Shock horror, we have more than likely imported 1000s and 1000s of new cases....just like March.
No the issue isn't holidays to Europe, it's continually importing cases from red list countries with basically no real quarantine in place. We shouldn't be allowing flights from India to land in the UK, among other countries.
Well I did say all those passengers should be being tested at airport, proper quarantine and retest, before being allowed out into society.
We talked about this in March / April, how the government can't organize forcing arrivals into hotels for 7-10 days like they are doing in Australia. It isn't rocket science.
But we also really didn't need to complicate the situation with also allowing free for all foreign holidays, which you can't track and trace even if you wanted to. At least if there is an outbreak in Skegness, you should be able to do a decent job of tracing people.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
@isam is a fine chap, but I have to say that 'country gent' isn't the description which immediately springs to mind.
Well it worked for Guy Ritchie...
Isn't Guy Richie a posho that pretended to be gangsta, before returning to being a country posho. I am sure his parents/ step parents were landed gentry.
Actually that's a good point yes he was.
I did enjoy his latest film The Gentlemen though, about poshos running the weed growing business, by using landed gentry estates to grow it, even if one the main characters was bloody Hugh Grant...2hrs of sillyness with a good few twists and turns.
Following their death stats nonsense where there woukd just carry on annoucing 100+ deaths a day when the real figure was 5-10 I do not believe a single stat from PHE.
Just because their figures included historic deaths when they should have been dropping doesn't mean that figures showing increases can be ignored in the same way.
Their death figures were complete nonsense. If you compared them to the ONS stats they were miles out.
Madrid lock down and isolation getting closer I think as autonomous communities demand action.
The damage is already done - Andalucia running at 1500+ cases each day and all to allow a month on the coast in August! Frustratingly Andalucia asked for it themselves - we had some idiot in Almeria boasting yesterday how safe the beaches were this year.
The worldwide, but especially European and American, failure to prevent non-essential travel this year has been a huge contributor to the virus spread.
The go on your summer holidays / airbridge bollocks was insane. The UK could have said no, said in the UK, bolster the UK economy all summer. And then for those who did have to travel, have airport testing, quarantine and a follow up test i.e. like Iceland.
Instead it was go to Spain, France, Greece, mix with 1000s of other people from all over Europe and come back untested. Shock horror, we have more than likely imported 1000s and 1000s of new cases....just like March.
No the issue isn't holidays to Europe, it's continually importing cases from red list countries with basically no real quarantine in place. We shouldn't be allowing flights from India to land in the UK, among other countries.
Well I did say all those passengers should be being tested at airport, proper quarantine and retest, before being allowed out into society.
We talked about this in March / April, how the government can't organize forcing arrivals into hotels for 7-10 days like they are doing in Australia. It isn't rocket science.
No, we just shouldn't allow to them to land here in the first place unless they are British citizens and even then there should be a surcharge for the two tests required and an ankle tag so they can be tracked while they are supposed to be in quarantine.
I’d say Texas, Georgia and Ohio should be in his column . North Carolina is a toss up , Bloomberg is pumping 100 million dollars into Florida and I think Biden will edge that . Arizona seems to be moving away from Trump , latest NY Times Sienna Poll has Biden ahead by 9 points and I think that should be a Biden pick up also . That 7/4 for all 6 looks ridiculous!
Trump really can't afford to lose any of these. Perhaps Arizona if he's doing particularly well in the rustbelt. But that's an odd combo - it just just goes to show how good a bet Biden is right now.
That lead is based on not just a 2016-non-voter Trump surge but also the complete elimination of the female vote premium.
If they are right then they are the greatest pollsters of all time.
'We found a substantial block of older, white, male voters without a college degree who plan to vote for Trump in 2020. Historically, female voters turnout at a higher rate than men; however this year looks like a 50%/50% split.
Also, we tend to believe many public polls are too narrowly defining who will be voting this year. Polls with tight or narrow likely voter screens or that rely on prior voter history to identify “likely voters” could be missing a block of older male voters who do not always show up on election day, but plan to this year.
....Biden leads by 10 points in urban/suburban areas of the country while Trump is up 40 points in exurban markets. Also, Trump is up nearly 7 points in the swing states, which account for almost a quarter of likely voters in this poll.
....We do see a bloc of male voters without a college degree, who are not regular voters, that are planning to vote this year. They appear to be older (45+), white, and do not have a college degree. To borrow a P. J. O'Rourke book title, many in this group could be described as the “Don't Vote, It Just Encourages the Bastards” voting bloc. Trump leads this group by 10 points (53%/43%), which is a lower margin than in 2016. However, this block only accounted for 16% of voters in 2016. In 2020, it appears they could make up around 25% of voters. Trump is also up 15 points among voters with household incomes of $100k or more, which account for over a third of likely voters at 34% and is up from 2016.
...Fears that we will not know the winner on election night probably have merit. Mail or absentee voting could account for 31% of total votes, including 30% of voters in the swing states. Nearly half (45%) of Biden voters indicate they plan to vote by mail. It could be a long November if things remain the same until election day.'
Further to the above while there has been a swing to Biden amongst white men without a college degree who Trump won 71% to 23% in 2016 (though they may have a higher turnout) there has also been a swing to Trump amongst the the richest voters, in 2016 for example Trump led voters with incomes of $100-$199,999 by only 48% to 47%, voters earning $200 000 to $249 999 by only 49% to 48% and voters earning over $250 000 by only 48% to 46% for Hillary. Trump now leads voters earning over $100 000 a year by 15%.
Messages such as the below from the Biden campaign have clearly won over a few white working class males from Trump but at the cost of seeing some rich Hillary voters shifting to Trump as a result
It does rather remind me of that superb video that said his educational establishments were both top of their States....geographically.
You don't need an Ivy league degree but you do need to be smart.
Interestingly Trump has an Ivy League Degree from the University of Pennsylvania, unlike Biden, this is probably the first Presidential election the Republican candidate has had a more prestigious college degree than the Democratic candidate since Yale postgrad Gerald Ford faced Georgia Institute of Technology graduate Jimmy Carter in 1976 (Trump and Hillary, Romney and Obama, Bush 43 and Gore and Kerry and Bush 41 and Clinton and Dukakis all had Ivy league degrees, McCain, Dole, Reagan and Mondale did not have Ivy League degrees)
That’s mere credentialism. Carter was way smarter than Ford.
And Trump probably had someone else study for him.
That's a simplistic take on things, the reason places like Liverpool (and Israel) are seeing surging cases is because they didn't see a huge number of cases in the first wave. There's no real immunity levels in the wider community so it's a perfect place for the virus to run wild.
The reason why London isn't having mass outbreaks is because of the people who go out an meet each other immunity is probably over 30% so the R value required for exponential growth is closer to 1.4 or 1.5, a good data modelling team would be able to give the government likely areas of outbreak based on previous infection data fairly easily but with the likes of Harding in charge we'll never get there.
Explain Madrid then!
Didn't the Madrid stats show a much lower level of antibody presence than London, like 5% vs almost 20% in London.
Also from what I've read the Spanish outbreak has been worse in care homes where building up immunity is less useful from a public health perspective than in the wider community, especially younger people who interact with each other. I think in this wave it's probably a similar outbreak to London's first wave which will give much better herd immunity and hopefully make it more difficult for third and fourth waves to really become a disaster before a vaccine is available.
Ultimately there doesn't seem to be any way around some level of community infection without completely sacrificing the economy, especially the part of economy that young people depend on. Across all of Europe we need to have a grown up conversation about risk segmentation or young people are going to suffer severely reduced life chances and our nations will all suffer in the longer term.
Given we can't even have a grown up conversation about risk segmentation on PB without people screaming "denialists", "apartheid" and "killers" at us, regrettably I don't fancy our chances.
Following their death stats nonsense where there woukd just carry on annoucing 100+ deaths a day when the real figure was 5-10 I do not believe a single stat from PHE.
Just because their figures included historic deaths when they should have been dropping doesn't mean that figures showing increases can be ignored in the same way.
Their death figures were complete nonsense. If you compared them to the ONS stats they were miles out.
ONS excess deaths were higher than PHE Covid deaths I think ?
If this Government had the brains it was born with then it would've spent the Summer turning these empty, useless facilities into somewhere to warehouse rows of people on CPAP machines, so that at least some of the conventional hospitals can be kept free of Covid cases.
As it is, we're now going to revert to the blind panic of March where virtually no other serious medical conditions of any kind can be treated. And this is what we're going to have for months or potentially years to come: repeated cycles of lockdown, easing, panic and lockdown again. The non-Covid death toll and unemployment rates are both going to be astronomical.
I’d say Texas, Georgia and Ohio should be in his column . North Carolina is a toss up , Bloomberg is pumping 100 million dollars into Florida and I think Biden will edge that . Arizona seems to be moving away from Trump , latest NY Times Sienna Poll has Biden ahead by 9 points and I think that should be a Biden pick up also . That 7/4 for all 6 looks ridiculous!
Trump really can't afford to lose any of these. Perhaps Arizona if he's doing particularly well in the rustbelt. But that's an odd combo - it just just goes to show how good a bet Biden is right now.
That lead is based on not just a 2016-non-voter Trump surge but also the complete elimination of the female vote premium.
If they are right then they are the greatest pollsters of all time.
'We found a substantial block of older, white, male voters without a college degree who plan to vote for Trump in 2020. Historically, female voters turnout at a higher rate than men; however this year looks like a 50%/50% split.
Also, we tend to believe many public polls are too narrowly defining who will be voting this year. Polls with tight or narrow likely voter screens or that rely on prior voter history to identify “likely voters” could be missing a block of older male voters who do not always show up on election day, but plan to this year.
....Biden leads by 10 points in urban/suburban areas of the country while Trump is up 40 points in exurban markets. Also, Trump is up nearly 7 points in the swing states, which account for almost a quarter of likely voters in this poll.
....We do see a bloc of male voters without a college degree, who are not regular voters, that are planning to vote this year. They appear to be older (45+), white, and do not have a college degree. To borrow a P. J. O'Rourke book title, many in this group could be described as the “Don't Vote, It Just Encourages the Bastards” voting bloc. Trump leads this group by 10 points (53%/43%), which is a lower margin than in 2016. However, this block only accounted for 16% of voters in 2016. In 2020, it appears they could make up around 25% of voters. Trump is also up 15 points among voters with household incomes of $100k or more, which account for over a third of likely voters at 34% and is up from 2016.
...Fears that we will not know the winner on election night probably have merit. Mail or absentee voting could account for 31% of total votes, including 30% of voters in the swing states. Nearly half (45%) of Biden voters indicate they plan to vote by mail. It could be a long November if things remain the same until election day.'
Further to the above while there has been a swing to Biden amongst white men without a college degree who Trump won 71% to 23% in 2016 (though they may have a higher turnout) there has also been a swing to Trump amongst the the richest voters, in 2016 for example Trump led voters with incomes of $100-$199,999 by only 48% to 47%, voters earning $200 000 to $249 999 by only 49% to 48% and voters earning over $250 000 by only 48% to 46% for Hillary. Trump now leads voters earning over $100 000 a year by 15%.
Messages such as the below from the Biden campaign have clearly won over a few white working class males from Trump but at the cost of seeing some rich Hillary voters shifting to Trump as a result
It does rather remind me of that superb video that said his educational establishments were both top of their States....geographically.
You don't need an Ivy league degree but you do need to be smart.
Interestingly Trump has an Ivy League Degree from the University of Pennsylvania, unlike Biden, this is probably the first Presidential election the Republican candidate has had a more prestigious college degree than the Democratic candidate since Yale postgrad Gerald Ford faced Georgia Institute of Technology graduate Jimmy Carter in 1976 (Trump and Hillary, Romney and Obama, Bush 43 and Gore and Kerry and Bush 41 and Clinton and Dukakis all had Ivy league degrees, McCain, Dole, Reagan and Mondale did not have Ivy League degrees)
That’s mere credentialism. Carter was way smarter than Ford.
And Trump probably had someone else study for him.
Maybe but then Nixon was way smarter than JFK or Humphrey on the same basis.
Madrid lock down and isolation getting closer I think as autonomous communities demand action.
The damage is already done - Andalucia running at 1500+ cases each day and all to allow a month on the coast in August! Frustratingly Andalucia asked for it themselves - we had some idiot in Almeria boasting yesterday how safe the beaches were this year.
The worldwide, but especially European and American, failure to prevent non-essential travel this year has been a huge contributor to the virus spread.
The go on your summer holidays / airbridge bollocks was insane. The UK could have said no, said in the UK, bolster the UK economy all summer. And then for those who did have to travel, have airport testing, quarantine and a follow up test i.e. like Iceland.
Instead it was go to Spain, France, Greece, mix with 1000s of other people from all over Europe and come back untested. Shock horror, we have more than likely imported 1000s and 1000s of new cases....just like March.
Is there a similar chart like this for the UK? Travel does seem to have played an important role in kicking off the second wave in Ireland, though here the government stuck more to a message of avoiding unnecessary travel and quarantine. They didn't enforce it, though.
A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.
They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
I’d say Texas, Georgia and Ohio should be in his column . North Carolina is a toss up , Bloomberg is pumping 100 million dollars into Florida and I think Biden will edge that . Arizona seems to be moving away from Trump , latest NY Times Sienna Poll has Biden ahead by 9 points and I think that should be a Biden pick up also . That 7/4 for all 6 looks ridiculous!
Trump really can't afford to lose any of these. Perhaps Arizona if he's doing particularly well in the rustbelt. But that's an odd combo - it just just goes to show how good a bet Biden is right now.
That lead is based on not just a 2016-non-voter Trump surge but also the complete elimination of the female vote premium.
If they are right then they are the greatest pollsters of all time.
'We found a substantial block of older, white, male voters without a college degree who plan to vote for Trump in 2020. Historically, female voters turnout at a higher rate than men; however this year looks like a 50%/50% split.
Also, we tend to believe many public polls are too narrowly defining who will be voting this year. Polls with tight or narrow likely voter screens or that rely on prior voter history to identify “likely voters” could be missing a block of older male voters who do not always show up on election day, but plan to this year.
....Biden leads by 10 points in urban/suburban areas of the country while Trump is up 40 points in exurban markets. Also, Trump is up nearly 7 points in the swing states, which account for almost a quarter of likely voters in this poll.
....We do see a bloc of male voters without a college degree, who are not regular voters, that are planning to vote this year. They appear to be older (45+), white, and do not have a college degree. To borrow a P. J. O'Rourke book title, many in this group could be described as the “Don't Vote, It Just Encourages the Bastards” voting bloc. Trump leads this group by 10 points (53%/43%), which is a lower margin than in 2016. However, this block only accounted for 16% of voters in 2016. In 2020, it appears they could make up around 25% of voters. Trump is also up 15 points among voters with household incomes of $100k or more, which account for over a third of likely voters at 34% and is up from 2016.
...Fears that we will not know the winner on election night probably have merit. Mail or absentee voting could account for 31% of total votes, including 30% of voters in the swing states. Nearly half (45%) of Biden voters indicate they plan to vote by mail. It could be a long November if things remain the same until election day.'
Further to the above while there has been a swing to Biden amongst white men without a college degree who Trump won 71% to 23% in 2016 (though they may have a higher turnout) there has also been a swing to Trump amongst the the richest voters, in 2016 for example Trump led voters with incomes of $100-$199,999 by only 48% to 47%, voters earning $200 000 to $249 999 by only 49% to 48% and voters earning over $250 000 by only 48% to 46% for Hillary. Trump now leads voters earning over $100 000 a year by 15%.
Messages such as the below from the Biden campaign have clearly won over a few white working class males from Trump but at the cost of seeing some rich Hillary voters shifting to Trump as a result
It does rather remind me of that superb video that said his educational establishments were both top of their States....geographically.
You don't need an Ivy league degree but you do need to be smart.
Interestingly Trump has an Ivy League Degree from the University of Pennsylvania, unlike Biden, this is probably the first Presidential election the Republican candidate has had a more prestigious college degree than the Democratic candidate since Yale postgrad Gerald Ford faced Georgia Institute of Technology graduate Jimmy Carter in 1976 (Trump and Hillary, Romney and Obama, Bush 43 and Gore and Kerry and Bush 41 and Clinton and Dukakis all had Ivy league degrees, McCain, Dole, Reagan and Mondale did not have Ivy League degrees)
That’s mere credentialism. Carter was way smarter than Ford.
And Trump probably had someone else study for him.
Unless his parents live in some form of commune I am not clear why taking a grandchild to visit them breaks the rule of 6 or indeed any other rule.
Households must not meet other households (unless in a support bubble).
The sort of thing you are cheering to the rafters, David.
I'm not sure Wakefield is affected, though of course the grandparents could live inside.
Again, I can't see an official announcement on the gov.uk local restrictions page, just the filter of the news websites, and some things don't make sense to me. e.g. Wigan's status as mentioned.
Hancock stood before the house and made a clear statement on the NE yesterday. Why did he not just announce all these lockdowns in that statement, why phase them?
Except it wasn't all that clear. The official guidance wasn't published until several hours after it came into effect!
A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.
They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
I think you are probably right: at this point in 2016 Rasmussen had Trump 5% ahead of Clinton, actual result Clinton 2% ahead of Trump. The latest Rasmussen poll has Trump-Biden even, so if Rasmussen are as right as in 2016 Biden will win by 7%, which is probably a good estimate for now.
Madrid lock down and isolation getting closer I think as autonomous communities demand action.
The damage is already done - Andalucia running at 1500+ cases each day and all to allow a month on the coast in August! Frustratingly Andalucia asked for it themselves - we had some idiot in Almeria boasting yesterday how safe the beaches were this year.
The worldwide, but especially European and American, failure to prevent non-essential travel this year has been a huge contributor to the virus spread.
I simply cannot comprehend the urgency to have a foreign holiday in the current situation. It betrays a degree of selfish childishness which has been sad to witness. My own little area went from near zero to several hundred cases in just a few weeks .. and the figures keep growing. For several weeks the hospitals and morgues stayed relatively empty but both are steadily getting busier now and in our area summer will last another 4-6 weeks yet before you need long trousers!
Yes, it makes no sense at all, especially when differing regulations in other countries lead to people choosing destinations based on activities that are banned at home such as nightclubs.
I used to travel a couple of times a month for work, and three or four times a year for leisure or family visits. I’ve not been on a plane since January and have no intention to go near one for a while yet. Emirates and BA are not going to recognise me when I do call them again, will be back to standard tier loyalty and no chance of upgrades
My wife had to make one trip for family reasons, which involved two tests and a whole lot of paperwork from both countries. No-one on the plane was going for a holiday, they were all travelling because they had to.
As cases start to rise quickly, the U.K. should start by quarantining all arrivals in hotels or barracks until they return a negative test. Flights from at-risk countries should also require everyone to be tested the day before they get on the plane at their origin. Other countries are doing this, but European counties (including the U.K.) seem reluctant to impose such requirements on travellers.
Madrid lock down and isolation getting closer I think as autonomous communities demand action.
The damage is already done - Andalucia running at 1500+ cases each day and all to allow a month on the coast in August! Frustratingly Andalucia asked for it themselves - we had some idiot in Almeria boasting yesterday how safe the beaches were this year.
The worldwide, but especially European and American, failure to prevent non-essential travel this year has been a huge contributor to the virus spread.
I simply cannot comprehend the urgency to have a foreign holiday in the current situation. It betrays a degree of selfish childishness which has been sad to witness. My own little area went from near zero to several hundred cases in just a few weeks .. and the figures keep growing. For several weeks the hospitals and morgues stayed relatively empty but both are steadily getting busier now and in our area summer will last another 4-6 weeks yet before you need long trousers!
Our holiday season is dominated by the Spanish, it’s a lot quieter now and the focus is on the return to school. Not sure why Murcia, just a few kilometers away is showing more infections, although Murcia city is probably driving it. We’re lucky in that the late night life was minimal But the problem will be complacency amongst the immigrant Brits As they let their guard down.
Ours is also largely Spanish especially in July and August and there were very few Brits this year obviously. The problem was the late night bars and discos.
If the government imposes another lock down without providing financial support as before, the fury in the Cyclefree household will be visible from space.
The previous support will have been for nothing, welfare costs will soar and there will be no taxpayers or businesses left to pay for anything.
Read the economic runes in the Telegraph. Even what's being proposed now is going to shatter confidence is this already weakening recovery.
Sunak cannot provide more support because Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England has decided the grandchildren have been mortgaged enough. He won't turn up at gilt auctions and that is extremely dangerous for Sunak.
If I were Sunak, I would resign. The climate Johnson and co are providing is just about as bad as it could be for British business. He is going to end up owning the Johnson mega-catastrophe because Johnson will not take responsibility for anything
He has precisely zero say and precisely zero room to do anything. In three weeks, Sunak's career will be over.
So what odds would you give me on him presenting the next budget, not due until November/December?
A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.
They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
I think you are probably right: at this point in 2016 Rasmussen had Trump 5% ahead of Clinton, actual result Clinton 2% ahead of Trump. The latest Rasmussen poll has Trump-Biden even, so if Rasmussen are as right as in 2016 Biden will win by 7%, which is probably a good estimate for now.
The latest Rasmussen has Trump 1% ahead, on September 12th to 13th Rasmussen had Trump 2% ahead on September 27th to 29th Rasmussen had Hillary 1% ahead
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
If the government imposes another lock down without providing financial support as before, the fury in the Cyclefree household will be visible from space.
The previous support will have been for nothing, welfare costs will soar and there will be no taxpayers or businesses left to pay for anything.
Read the economic runes in the Telegraph. Even what's being proposed now is going to shatter confidence is this already weakening recovery.
Sunak cannot provide more support because Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England has decided the grandchildren have been mortgaged enough. He won't turn up at gilt auctions and that is extremely dangerous for Sunak.
If I were Sunak, I would resign. The climate Johnson and co are providing is just about as bad as it could be for British business. He is going to end up owning the Johnson mega-catastrophe because Johnson will not take responsibility for anything
He has precisely zero say and precisely zero room to do anything. In three weeks, Sunak's career will be over.
So what odds would you give me on him presenting the next budget, not due until November/December?
That budget is supposedly delayed to the spring...
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
If the government imposes another lock down without providing financial support as before, the fury in the Cyclefree household will be visible from space.
The previous support will have been for nothing, welfare costs will soar and there will be no taxpayers or businesses left to pay for anything.
Read the economic runes in the Telegraph. Even what's being proposed now is going to shatter confidence is this already weakening recovery.
Sunak cannot provide more support because Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England has decided the grandchildren have been mortgaged enough. He won't turn up at gilt auctions and that is extremely dangerous for Sunak.
If I were Sunak, I would resign. The climate Johnson and co are providing is just about as bad as it could be for British business. He is going to end up owning the Johnson mega-catastrophe because Johnson will not take responsibility for anything
He has precisely zero say and precisely zero room to do anything. In three weeks, Sunak's career will be over.
So what odds would you give me on him presenting the next budget, not due until November/December?
That budget is supposedly delayed to the spring...
I thought it was November or December. When was it delayed?
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
If the government imposes another lock down without providing financial support as before, the fury in the Cyclefree household will be visible from space.
The previous support will have been for nothing, welfare costs will soar and there will be no taxpayers or businesses left to pay for anything.
Read the economic runes in the Telegraph. Even what's being proposed now is going to shatter confidence is this already weakening recovery.
Sunak cannot provide more support because Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England has decided the grandchildren have been mortgaged enough. He won't turn up at gilt auctions and that is extremely dangerous for Sunak.
If I were Sunak, I would resign. The climate Johnson and co are providing is just about as bad as it could be for British business. He is going to end up owning the Johnson mega-catastrophe because Johnson will not take responsibility for anything
He has precisely zero say and precisely zero room to do anything. In three weeks, Sunak's career will be over.
So what odds would you give me on him presenting the next budget, not due until November/December?
That budget is supposedly delayed to the spring...
I thought it was November or December. When was it delayed?
Whenever it is, what odds will you give me he doesn't present it?
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
She might well have. Les Francais some time ago moved their consulate to one of the most prominently located buildings in town, on the corner site on the Royal Mile betyween the National Library and the High Kirk, with other French cultural thingies - including a very nice bistro (took my partner there for lunch earlier in the year).
A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.
They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
That's not necessarily true.
It's possible that 2020 is a reverse 2016, where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Presidency.
It's not likely, but it's entirely possible that the Democrats pick up Arizona and are again understated in Texas. In that case, the Democrats could lose the Midwest (and even Minnesota) but win the Presidency.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.
They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
That's not necessarily true.
It's possible that 2020 is a reverse 2016, where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Presidency.
It's not likely, but it's entirely possible that the Democrats pick up Arizona and are again understated in Texas. In that case, the Democrats could lose the Midwest (and even Minnesota) but win the Presidency.
Trump would be understandably furious.
I can't see how Trump wins the popular vote, given how pounded he will get in places like California.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
She might well have. Les Francais some time ago moved their consulate to one of the most prominently located buildings in town, on the corner site on the Royal Mile betyween the National Library and the High Kirk, with other French cultural thingies - including a very nice bistro (took my partner there for lunch earlier in the year).
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
Oh, the Scotland in Union poll is trash. But the idea of asking questions before the "headline" question shouldn't be totally dismissed out of hand.
Abbott comes out of it pretty well (apart from the initial mistake)
Saw this yesterday, very good read - as his his story about how he hacked his friend’s life.
As someone who works in information security, this is the sort of article that I recommend people read.
Oh, and airline systems are stupid but convenient, no-one today would design a system that uses a booking reference as a password, but it’s always been like that and it’s way too much hassle for airlines to change it unless they’re forced to by regulation.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
She might well have. Les Francais some time ago moved their consulate to one of the most prominently located buildings in town, on the corner site on the Royal Mile betyween the National Library and the High Kirk, with other French cultural thingies - including a very nice bistro (took my partner there for lunch earlier in the year).
The Auld Alliance?
I wouldn't know - I don't fester in the past unlike certain other political tendencies. But it does, I think, reflect the pro-Europeanism of Scotland, both government and people, compared to the lands south of the border. I also do know that many French in particular know the difference, and have done for some time. When my parents had car trouble in the Normand countryside en route to a Provencal holiday - some 20-30 years ago now? - the local French garagiste sucked his teeth as to whether anything at all could be done, [edit] at least that day, while walking around the car, till he saw the SCO plate on the back - instant change in demeanour and my parents were off again within hours.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It's because they so rarely use their platform to promote things like strong borders or the Laffer curve.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
Oh, the Scotland in Union poll is trash. But the idea of asking questions before the "headline" question shouldn't be totally dismissed out of hand.
Indeed, this should be a huge warning shot to the SNP that the currency issue isn't resolved and will once again prove decisive in a referendum. The UK would never have voted to leave the EU had we joined the Euro, the threat to people's savings would have been too large and there would be too many questions about debt denominations. It's actually a good poll in a sense that it points out exactly the areas the SNP needs to address before asking for a referendum.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
She might well have. Les Francais some time ago moved their consulate to one of the most prominently located buildings in town, on the corner site on the Royal Mile betyween the National Library and the High Kirk, with other French cultural thingies - including a very nice bistro (took my partner there for lunch earlier in the year).
The food there is superb, especially the mussels and the fish. Good value too.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.
They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
That's not necessarily true.
It's possible that 2020 is a reverse 2016, where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Presidency.
It's not likely, but it's entirely possible that the Democrats pick up Arizona and are again understated in Texas. In that case, the Democrats could lose the Midwest (and even Minnesota) but win the Presidency.
Trump would be understandably furious.
Little known fact that the US came very, very close to abolishing the electoral college in 1970. The '68 election had shaken people's faith in the electoral system - everyone had assumed the EC was a quaint foible and not actually important for determining the winner and the '68 election was a big shock.
It passed congress and probably had enough support in the states (there was 30 definite Yes's and only 8 definite No's) but got filibustered in Senate. The vote for cloture was only 54 votes in favour so couldn't hit the 67 needed.
It was thought if Nixon had went for it he could have wtisted enough arms to get it passed.
Abbott comes out of it pretty well (apart from the initial mistake)
Saw this yesterday, very good read - as his his story about how he hacked his friend’s life.
As someone who works in information security, this is the sort of article that I recommend people read.
Oh, and airline systems are stupid but convenient, no-one today would design a system that uses a booking reference as a password, but it’s always been like that and it’s way too much hassle for airlines to change it unless they’re forced to by regulation.
I loved this line "For security reasons, we try to change our Prime Minister every six months, and to never use the same Prime Minister on multiple websites."
If the government imposes another lock down without providing financial support as before, the fury in the Cyclefree household will be visible from space.
The previous support will have been for nothing, welfare costs will soar and there will be no taxpayers or businesses left to pay for anything.
Read the economic runes in the Telegraph. Even what's being proposed now is going to shatter confidence is this already weakening recovery.
Sunak cannot provide more support because Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England has decided the grandchildren have been mortgaged enough. He won't turn up at gilt auctions and that is extremely dangerous for Sunak.
If I were Sunak, I would resign. The climate Johnson and co are providing is just about as bad as it could be for British business. He is going to end up owning the Johnson mega-catastrophe because Johnson will not take responsibility for anything
He has precisely zero say and precisely zero room to do anything. In three weeks, Sunak's career will be over.
So what odds would you give me on him presenting the next budget, not due until November/December?
That budget is supposedly delayed to the spring...
I thought it was November or December. When was it delayed?
Whenever it is, what odds will you give me he doesn't present it?
You're the one who is confident that he will be gone in 3 weeks. Given the uncertainty about the date of the budget will you give me 2/1 that he will still be in office on 30th November?
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
She might well have. Les Francais some time ago moved their consulate to one of the most prominently located buildings in town, on the corner site on the Royal Mile betyween the National Library and the High Kirk, with other French cultural thingies - including a very nice bistro (took my partner there for lunch earlier in the year).
The food there is superb, especially the mussels and the fish. Good value too.
Not surprising to see you have been - it's between the three main central court complexes (I think).
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It's because they so rarely use their platform to promote things like strong borders or the Laffer curve.
They have also noted the more significant swing to Trump amongst the richest voters even if there is also a swing to Biden with white working class men with no college degree (albeit with Trump still ahead), though they will also turnout more this year apparently
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How do you know what they do in private? It's perfectly possible to be rich and left-wing without being a hypocrite, just as it's possible to be poor and right-wing without being a victim of false consciousness.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
She might well have. Les Francais some time ago moved their consulate to one of the most prominently located buildings in town, on the corner site on the Royal Mile betyween the National Library and the High Kirk, with other French cultural thingies - including a very nice bistro (took my partner there for lunch earlier in the year).
The food there is superb, especially the mussels and the fish. Good value too.
Not surprising to see you have been - it's between the three main central court complexes (I think).
Yep, its very handy and full of lawyers (no place is perfect). I was there last week and had a 2 course meal, mussels and salmon, sparkling water and cappuccino (don't tell @Cyclefree, it was after 12 ) for the staggering price of £10 including the tip. They seem to be continuing Rishi's deal themselves.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
I wonder how they were asked to consider the issues?
It's Scotland in Union. They asked the question as Remain / Leave not Yes / No.
They also asked about the hard border with England after a No Deal Brexit and Scotland rejoining the EU and Scotland losing the £
So a bunch of leading questions. Straight out of Yes, Minister.
Well obviously the No campaign will point out that if Scotland leaves the UK on a No Deal Brexit terms to rejoin the EU it would likely have to join the Euro and face tariffs on all Scottish exports to England where 70% of Scottish exports go.
In 2014 Scotland and England would still be in the single market and EU and even Salmond did not rule out keeping sterling
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.
They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
That's not necessarily true.
It's possible that 2020 is a reverse 2016, where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Presidency.
It's not likely, but it's entirely possible that the Democrats pick up Arizona and are again understated in Texas. In that case, the Democrats could lose the Midwest (and even Minnesota) but win the Presidency.
Trump would be understandably furious.
I can't see how Trump wins the popular vote, given how pounded he will get in places like California.
A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.
They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
That's not necessarily true.
It's possible that 2020 is a reverse 2016, where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Presidency.
It's not likely, but it's entirely possible that the Democrats pick up Arizona and are again understated in Texas. In that case, the Democrats could lose the Midwest (and even Minnesota) but win the Presidency.
Trump would be understandably furious.
Not impossible or Biden could pick up Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin thanks to gains with working class whites but Trump win the popular vote thanks to still winning that group overall and making gains relative to 2016 with rich voters on the coasts
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
Of course it would have further to fall. The damage to the Scottish economy would be cumulative, not an alternative.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
Of course it would have further to fall. The damage to the Scottish economy would be cumulative, not an alternative.
Indeed, less than 50% of UK exports go to the EU, 70% of Scottish exports go to England.
So a No Deal Brexit will damage the UK, Scottish independence after a No Deal Brexit would be devastating to Scotland
I’d say Texas, Georgia and Ohio should be in his column . North Carolina is a toss up , Bloomberg is pumping 100 million dollars into Florida and I think Biden will edge that . Arizona seems to be moving away from Trump , latest NY Times Sienna Poll has Biden ahead by 9 points and I think that should be a Biden pick up also . That 7/4 for all 6 looks ridiculous!
Trump really can't afford to lose any of these. Perhaps Arizona if he's doing particularly well in the rustbelt. But that's an odd combo - it just just goes to show how good a bet Biden is right now.
That lead is based on not just a 2016-non-voter Trump surge but also the complete elimination of the female vote premium.
If they are right then they are the greatest pollsters of all time.
'We found a substantial block of older, white, male voters without a college degree who plan to vote for Trump in 2020. Historically, female voters turnout at a higher rate than men; however this year looks like a 50%/50% split.
Also, we tend to believe many public polls are too narrowly defining who will be voting this year. Polls with tight or narrow likely voter screens or that rely on prior voter history to identify “likely voters” could be missing a block of older male voters who do not always show up on election day, but plan to this year.
....Biden leads by 10 points in urban/suburban areas of the country while Trump is up 40 points in exurban markets. Also, Trump is up nearly 7 points in the swing states, which account for almost a quarter of likely voters in this poll.
....We do see a bloc of male voters without a college degree, who are not regular voters, that are planning to vote this year. They appear to be older (45+), white, and do not have a college degree. To borrow a P. J. O'Rourke book title, many in this group could be described as the “Don't Vote, It Just Encourages the Bastards” voting bloc. Trump leads this group by 10 points (53%/43%), which is a lower margin than in 2016. However, this block only accounted for 16% of voters in 2016. In 2020, it appears they could make up around 25% of voters. Trump is also up 15 points among voters with household incomes of $100k or more, which account for over a third of likely voters at 34% and is up from 2016.
...Fears that we will not know the winner on election night probably have merit. Mail or absentee voting could account for 31% of total votes, including 30% of voters in the swing states. Nearly half (45%) of Biden voters indicate they plan to vote by mail. It could be a long November if things remain the same until election day.'
Further to the above while there has been a swing to Biden amongst white men without a college degree who Trump won 71% to 23% in 2016 (though they may have a higher turnout) there has also been a swing to Trump amongst the the richest voters, in 2016 for example Trump led voters with incomes of $100-$199,999 by only 48% to 47%, voters earning $200 000 to $249 999 by only 49% to 48% and voters earning over $250 000 by only 48% to 46% for Hillary. Trump now leads voters earning over $100 000 a year by 15%.
Messages such as the below from the Biden campaign have clearly won over a few white working class males from Trump but at the cost of seeing some rich Hillary voters shifting to Trump as a result
It does rather remind me of that superb video that said his educational establishments were both top of their States....geographically.
You don't need an Ivy league degree but you do need to be smart.
Interestingly Trump has an Ivy League Degree from the University of Pennsylvania, unlike Biden, this is probably the first Presidential election the Republican candidate has had a more prestigious college degree than the Democratic candidate since Yale postgrad Gerald Ford faced Georgia Institute of Technology graduate Jimmy Carter in 1976 (Trump and Hillary, Romney and Obama, Bush 43 and Gore and Kerry and Bush 41 and Clinton and Dukakis all had Ivy league degrees, McCain, Dole, Reagan and Mondale did not have Ivy League degrees)
That’s mere credentialism. Carter was way smarter than Ford.
And Trump probably had someone else study for him.
Maybe but then Nixon was way smarter than JFK or Humphrey on the same basis.
Abbott comes out of it pretty well (apart from the initial mistake)
Saw this yesterday, very good read - as his his story about how he hacked his friend’s life.
As someone who works in information security, this is the sort of article that I recommend people read.
Oh, and airline systems are stupid but convenient, no-one today would design a system that uses a booking reference as a password, but it’s always been like that and it’s way too much hassle for airlines to change it unless they’re forced to by regulation.
I loved this line "For security reasons, we try to change our Prime Minister every six months, and to never use the same Prime Minister on multiple websites."
Yes, writing an article on information security with so much humour is a rare skill, and definitely not one I possess myself.
I used to do a talk called “Why I’m not on Facebook” to teenagers and their parents, about the dangers of social media and over-sharing - by far the most difficult bit of putting it together was writing the jokes, there’s a very fine line between funny, cringeworthy, condescending and offensive to someone.
I wonder how they were asked to consider the issues?
It's Scotland in Union. They asked the question as Remain / Leave not Yes / No.
They also asked about the hard border with England after a No Deal Brexit and Scotland rejoining the EU and Scotland losing the £
So a bunch of leading questions. Straight out of Yes, Minister.
Well obviously the No campaign will point out that if Scotland leaves the UK on a No Deal Brexit terms to rejoin the EU it would likely have to join the Euro and face tariffs on all Scottish exports to England where 70% of Scottish exports go.
In 2014 Scotland and England would still be in the single market and EU and even Salmond did not rule out keeping sterling
Yes of course the No campaign will make their own arguments and obviously in your world they will do this in a total vacuum where the Yes campaign say nothing whatsoever and simply have the No campaign being the only side making points. Clearly.
How much is 'real' differential, once you weight for there being more older women, and old people vote more?
I guess, as well, that women are less likely to have full time jobs, and are therefore more likely to be able to vote in person.
FWIW, I think Trump will get roughly the same share of male voters as in 2016, but will perform meaningfully worse with women, going from a ten point gap to a fifteen point one. Given more women vote than men, that makes his job quite difficult.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
Yes. A strange attitude given that actors have accompanied us and sustained us largely through the past six months. Actors have brought us much joy and comfort of late.
A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.
They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
That's not necessarily true.
It's possible that 2020 is a reverse 2016, where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Presidency.
It's not likely, but it's entirely possible that the Democrats pick up Arizona and are again understated in Texas. In that case, the Democrats could lose the Midwest (and even Minnesota) but win the Presidency.
Trump would be understandably furious.
I can't see how Trump wins the popular vote, given how pounded he will get in places like California.
Biden's California lead is less than Hillary's
You get the luxury of never having to worry if your vote matters in California for the presidency.
Comments
We talked about this in March / April, how the government can't organize forcing arrivals into hotels for 7-10 days like they are doing in Australia. It isn't rocket science.
But we also really didn't need to complicate the situation with also allowing free for all foreign holidays, which you can't track and trace even if you wanted to. At least if there is an outbreak in Skegness, you should be able to do a decent job of tracing people.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
Carter was way smarter than Ford.
And Trump probably had someone else study for him.
As it is, we're now going to revert to the blind panic of March where virtually no other serious medical conditions of any kind can be treated. And this is what we're going to have for months or potentially years to come: repeated cycles of lockdown, easing, panic and lockdown again. The non-Covid death toll and unemployment rates are both going to be astronomical.
I think state polls have many problems. It is all an interesting conundrum.
Plus Biden had just a 1.9 GPA at Delaware University and was 76th out of a class of 85 students
https://history.howstuffworks.com/historical-figures/joe-biden.htm
Carter had far higher college grades
https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081?s=20
I used to travel a couple of times a month for work, and three or four times a year for leisure or family visits. I’ve not been on a plane since January and have no intention to go near one for a while yet. Emirates and BA are not going to recognise me when I do call them again, will be back to standard tier loyalty and no chance of upgrades
My wife had to make one trip for family reasons, which involved two tests and a whole lot of paperwork from both countries. No-one on the plane was going for a holiday, they were all travelling because they had to.
As cases start to rise quickly, the U.K. should start by quarantining all arrivals in hotels or barracks until they return a negative test. Flights from at-risk countries should also require everyone to be tested the day before they get on the plane at their origin. Other countries are doing this, but European counties (including the U.K.) seem reluctant to impose such requirements on travellers.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1306965459636563968
My trading strategy is fucked. I should step away.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/election_2016_white_house_watch_trends
https://mango.pdf.zone/finding-former-australian-prime-minister-tony-abbotts-passport-number-on-instagram
Abbott comes out of it pretty well (apart from the initial mistake)
Happen to know if Virginia's voter file is as permissively open as North CArolina's?
https://twitter.com/MarshallCohen/status/1306961499085209602
Or 'a luvvie' in your terms...
It's possible that 2020 is a reverse 2016, where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Presidency.
It's not likely, but it's entirely possible that the Democrats pick up Arizona and are again understated in Texas. In that case, the Democrats could lose the Midwest (and even Minnesota) but win the Presidency.
Trump would be understandably furious.
Fairfax 355,133 64.43% 157,710 28.61% in 2016.
As someone who works in information security, this is the sort of article that I recommend people read.
Oh, and airline systems are stupid but convenient, no-one today would design a system that uses a booking reference as a password, but it’s always been like that and it’s way too much hassle for airlines to change it unless they’re forced to by regulation.
A further 4,322 coronavirus cases and 27 deaths have been reported in the UK, according to the government's daily figures.
It passed congress and probably had enough support in the states (there was 30 definite Yes's and only 8 definite No's) but got filibustered in Senate. The vote for cloture was only 54 votes in favour so couldn't hit the 67 needed.
It was thought if Nixon had went for it he could have wtisted enough arms to get it passed.
https://www.pollsmartmr.com/latest-polls-1/2020-presidential
Fair play to them.
The total electorate in 2016 was 4,741,564
Currently 889,273 (so 18% of the 106 figure) of that figure have requested an absentee ballot.
Good luck to @Pulpstar and @TheScreamingEagles
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1306975807143841792
Just pinch me.
In 2014 Scotland and England would still be in the single market and EU and even Salmond did not rule out keeping sterling
Or are you still in shock over Amal Clooney?
Inevitable really. The virus hasn't changed. We haven't changed. And not many people have yet had it.
So a No Deal Brexit will damage the UK, Scottish independence after a No Deal Brexit would be devastating to Scotland
Nixon and Trump were/are sociopathic criminals.
I used to do a talk called “Why I’m not on Facebook” to teenagers and their parents, about the dangers of social media and over-sharing - by far the most difficult bit of putting it together was writing the jokes, there’s a very fine line between funny, cringeworthy, condescending and offensive to someone.
I guess, as well, that women are less likely to have full time jobs, and are therefore more likely to be able to vote in person.
FWIW, I think Trump will get roughly the same share of male voters as in 2016, but will perform meaningfully worse with women, going from a ten point gap to a fifteen point one. Given more women vote than men, that makes his job quite difficult.
Apart from Emma Thompson, obvs.