And every time a child coughs a school (or, at the very least, a big chunk of it) shuts down. If we're going to rely on testing to sort this problem out then the education system will collapse within weeks, leaving a substantial fraction of working parents locked up for a fortnight into the bargain (though FWIW if a million tests a day were available then false positives would probably end up causing the same problem in any case.)
We've had our first incarcerated parent case at work now. One of my co-workers has a toddler with the shits (one of the myriad of symptoms occasionally associated with Covid in tiny kiddies.) Inevitable it's proven impossible to get a test for her, with the result that both parents are now locked up for a fortnight. It's a hopeless situation and it's only going to deteriorate.
If the government imposes another lock down without providing financial support as before, the fury in the Cyclefree household will be visible from space.
The previous support will have been for nothing, welfare costs will soar and there will be no taxpayers or businesses left to pay for anything.
Read the economic runes in the Telegraph. Even what's being proposed now is going to shatter confidence is this already weakening recovery.
Sunak cannot provide more support because Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England has decided the grandchildren have been mortgaged enough. He won't turn up at gilt auctions and that is extremely dangerous for Sunak.
If I were Sunak, I would resign. The climate Johnson and co are providing is just about as bad as it could be for British business. He is going to end up owning the Johnson mega-catastrophe because Johnson will not take responsibility for anything
He has precisely zero say and precisely zero room to do anything. In three weeks, Sunak's career will be over.
that is what happens to doormats, they wear out quickly
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
She might well have. Les Francais some time ago moved their consulate to one of the most prominently located buildings in town, on the corner site on the Royal Mile betyween the National Library and the High Kirk, with other French cultural thingies - including a very nice bistro (took my partner there for lunch earlier in the year).
The Auld Alliance?
I wouldn't know - I don't fester in the past unlike certain other political tendencies. But it does, I think, reflect the pro-Europeanism of Scotland, both government and people, compared to the lands south of the border. I also do know that many French in particular know the difference, and have done for some time. When my parents had car trouble in the Normand countryside en route to a Provencal holiday - some 20-30 years ago now? - the local French garagiste sucked his teeth as to whether anything at all could be done, [edit] at least that day, while walking around the car, till he saw the SCO plate on the back - instant change in demeanour and my parents were off again within hours.
Ha! Yes! I meant the bistro though – there is (or was) a French bistro in Edinburgh bearing that name!
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
Oh, the Scotland in Union poll is trash. But the idea of asking questions before the "headline" question shouldn't be totally dismissed out of hand.
Indeed, this should be a huge warning shot to the SNP that the currency issue isn't resolved and will once again prove decisive in a referendum. The UK would never have voted to leave the EU had we joined the Euro, the threat to people's savings would have been too large and there would be too many questions about debt denominations. It's actually a good poll in a sense that it points out exactly the areas the SNP needs to address before asking for a referendum.
How on Earth did all those new countries in ex-USSR and ex-Yugoslavia come into being without their currency issues being addressed?
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
No matter how far in the bin Sterling happens to be at the time, a newly-launched Scottish currency would depreciate against it, because of the fiscal transfers that currently take place between the U.K. and Scotland.
This is through the looking glass stuff but did they not ask him to confirm that Russia were not involved in the leaks (which seems rather different from "help cover up their involvement"?
I wonder how they were asked to consider the issues?
It's Scotland in Union. They asked the question as Remain / Leave not Yes / No.
They also asked about the hard border with England after a No Deal Brexit and Scotland rejoining the EU and Scotland losing the £
So a bunch of leading questions. Straight out of Yes, Minister.
Well obviously the No campaign will point out that if Scotland leaves the UK on a No Deal Brexit terms to rejoin the EU it would likely have to join the Euro and face tariffs on all Scottish exports to England where 70% of Scottish exports go.
In 2014 Scotland and England would still be in the single market and EU and even Salmond did not rule out keeping sterling
Yes of course the No campaign will make their own arguments and obviously in your world they will do this in a total vacuum where the Yes campaign say nothing whatsoever and simply have the No campaign being the only side making points. Clearly.
The Yes campaign can say what they want, the No campaign will simply point out Scottish independence after a No Deal Brexit to rejoin the EU will be devastating for the Scottish economy given most Scottish exports go to England in a way Scottish independence in 2014 with England and Scotland still in the single market would not have been
I wonder how they were asked to consider the issues?
It's Scotland in Union. They asked the question as Remain / Leave not Yes / No.
They also asked about the hard border with England after a No Deal Brexit and Scotland rejoining the EU and Scotland losing the £
So a bunch of leading questions. Straight out of Yes, Minister.
Well obviously the No campaign will point out that if Scotland leaves the UK on a No Deal Brexit terms to rejoin the EU it would likely have to join the Euro and face tariffs on all Scottish exports to England where 70% of Scottish exports go.
In 2014 Scotland and England would still be in the single market and EU and even Salmond did not rule out keeping sterling
You are assuming that the UK consumer willingly accept tariffs on EU imports on a No Deal Brexit and doesn't demand re-entry to the CU and/or SM tout de suite.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
That would be philanthropy. A left-winger would campaign for everyone to pay higher taxes, just as a right-winger would campaign for everyone to pay lower taxes.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
Oh, the Scotland in Union poll is trash. But the idea of asking questions before the "headline" question shouldn't be totally dismissed out of hand.
Indeed, this should be a huge warning shot to the SNP that the currency issue isn't resolved and will once again prove decisive in a referendum. The UK would never have voted to leave the EU had we joined the Euro, the threat to people's savings would have been too large and there would be too many questions about debt denominations. It's actually a good poll in a sense that it points out exactly the areas the SNP needs to address before asking for a referendum.
How on Earth did all those new countries in ex-USSR and ex-Yugoslavia come into being without their currency issues being addressed?
A civil war in the former Yugoslavia in which 140,000 died and after which most of the new nations of the former Yugoslavia and the USSR are still amongst the poorest in Europe?
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Thankful to the capitalist system they pretend to want to smash up, that made them rich in the first place?
It’s really easy to say you’d be happy to pay 60% or 70% tax rates, when there’s no chance of it actually happening and millions of the woke will like you on Twitter for saying it. If Corbyn had got in you’d have seen a fair few of them ending up in Monaco or Dubai.
I’ll believe the Luvvies are serious about wanting higher taxes, when they actually start writing the cheques voluntarily.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Voodoo poll, if asked if they would be happy with 50% increase in tax 100 % voted NO territory. Just like saying if your granny had testicles would she be your grandpa
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
Yes. A strange attitude given that actors have accompanied us and sustained us largely through the past six months. Actors have brought us much joy and comfort of late.
Apart from Emma Thompson, obvs.
Come on. If you are looking for someone to take on the role of Emma Thompson in a film, then Emma Thompson is pretty darn good.
I wonder how they were asked to consider the issues?
It's Scotland in Union. They asked the question as Remain / Leave not Yes / No.
They also asked about the hard border with England after a No Deal Brexit and Scotland rejoining the EU and Scotland losing the £
So a bunch of leading questions. Straight out of Yes, Minister.
Well obviously the No campaign will point out that if Scotland leaves the UK on a No Deal Brexit terms to rejoin the EU it would likely have to join the Euro and face tariffs on all Scottish exports to England where 70% of Scottish exports go.
In 2014 Scotland and England would still be in the single market and EU and even Salmond did not rule out keeping sterling
You are assuming that the UK consumer willingly accept tariffs on EU imports on a No Deal Brexit and doesn't demand re-entry to the CU and/or SM tout de suite.
The Tories will be in power until 2024 with a majority of 80 at least, so that guarantees tariffs on EU imports to England for at least 3 or 4 years and without Scottish MPs the chances of the Tories being re elected in 2024 even on a continued hard Brexit ticket is much higher
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
Unless you are a billionaire that is pointless. And how do you know the Tories won't just use the money to cut taxes for their rich pals?
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
The points that they were asked are all valid concerns and will play a big part in Even Better Together but, call me old fashioned, I do think it makes the opinion expressed thereafter somewhat unreliable and not necessarily representative of the population as a whole. After all, nearly 45% of Scots managed to vote Yes the last time around without applying their mind to these issues at all.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
That would be philanthropy. A left-winger would campaign for everyone to pay higher taxes, just as a right-winger would campaign for everyone to pay lower taxes.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
That would be philanthropy. A left-winger would campaign for everyone to pay higher taxes, just as a right-winger would campaign for everyone to pay lower taxes.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
Unless you are a billionaire that is pointless. And how do you know the Tories won't just use the money to cut taxes for their rich pals?
They'll use the money to employ their rich pals on current evidence.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
LOL, all the unionist economists and financial experts immediately rubbish Scotland being able to function like any other country but think England will still rule the waves , what a pathetic bunch of numpties.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
No matter how far in the bin Sterling happens to be at the time, a newly-launched Scottish currency would depreciate against it, because of the fiscal transfers that currently take place between the U.K. and Scotland.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
That would be philanthropy. A left-winger would campaign for everyone to pay higher taxes, just as a right-winger would campaign for everyone to pay lower taxes.
Well, lefties first. They can lead by example.
Laws don't work like that.
No of course not, I'm not talking about the law though. Being rich and a lefty seems inconsistent.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
I have no time for over paid celebrities and to be fair I have never had
I remember wildly clapping him (with scrap jnr) at the Lane just for coming over to take corners in his last season.
Well, I wish you joy with him and will commiserate every time he gets injured (basically months with a vowel in them). Personally, I am glad that United didn't play a fortune for him as was being rumoured last year.
How long until Mourinho drops him for not tackling back enough?
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
Oh, the Scotland in Union poll is trash. But the idea of asking questions before the "headline" question shouldn't be totally dismissed out of hand.
Indeed, this should be a huge warning shot to the SNP that the currency issue isn't resolved and will once again prove decisive in a referendum. The UK would never have voted to leave the EU had we joined the Euro, the threat to people's savings would have been too large and there would be too many questions about debt denominations. It's actually a good poll in a sense that it points out exactly the areas the SNP needs to address before asking for a referendum.
How on Earth did all those new countries in ex-USSR and ex-Yugoslavia come into being without their currency issues being addressed?
A civil war in the former Yugoslavia in which 140,000 died and after which most of the new nations of the former Yugoslavia and the USSR are still amongst the poorest in Europe?
Answer the question , do they have a currency, does any country in the world have an issue in having its own currency. Especially any that are totally debt free.
Using that theorem, jhb reckons that more than 90% of the positive cases showing up in the UK right now are false positives.
Just think about that for a moment.
Equally to the point, doesn’t that mean that the number of positives will always correlate quite closely with the number of tests, regardless of the spread (or not) of the virus?
ONS reckon 6,000 cases per day in England a week ago.
Can expect 10k/day when the next data set comes out next Friday for what is happening now.
Then what?
Well, if everyone waiting for a test self-isolates as a precaution then that should slow down the rate of transmission.
I wonder whether we will start to see an impact on mobility data in areas not subject to a local lockdown, due to the news about testing and cases. That would slow things down at least.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
No matter how far in the bin Sterling happens to be at the time, a newly-launched Scottish currency would depreciate against it, because of the fiscal transfers that currently take place between the U.K. and Scotland.
Just as Sterling depreciated post Brexit. So what?
It's a correction it doesn't matter, especially since we don't have any inflation. If Scotland were to launch a McPound and transition from that into the Euro then a devalued McPound joining the Euro could give the Scots a major boost.
The countries that entered the Euro with a devalued currency (like a post unification Germany) coped better than those that were overvalued (like the Lira).
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
No matter how far in the bin Sterling happens to be at the time, a newly-launched Scottish currency would depreciate against it, because of the fiscal transfers that currently take place between the U.K. and Scotland.
Cuckoo Cuckoo
Indeed you are, Malcolm.
What currency would an independent Scotland use, on the day they leave the U.K.?
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
Oh, the Scotland in Union poll is trash. But the idea of asking questions before the "headline" question shouldn't be totally dismissed out of hand.
Indeed, this should be a huge warning shot to the SNP that the currency issue isn't resolved and will once again prove decisive in a referendum. The UK would never have voted to leave the EU had we joined the Euro, the threat to people's savings would have been too large and there would be too many questions about debt denominations. It's actually a good poll in a sense that it points out exactly the areas the SNP needs to address before asking for a referendum.
How on Earth did all those new countries in ex-USSR and ex-Yugoslavia come into being without their currency issues being addressed?
A civil war in the former Yugoslavia in which 140,000 died and after which most of the new nations of the former Yugoslavia and the USSR are still amongst the poorest in Europe?
Answer the question , do they have a currency, does any country in the world have an issue in having its own currency. Especially any that are totally debt free.
They all have their own currency apart from Slovenia which is in the Euro, so Scotland can choose to be independent and have its own currency or rejoin the EU and likely have to adopt the Euro
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Thankful to the capitalist system they pretend to want to smash up, that made them rich in the first place?
It’s really easy to say you’d be happy to pay 60% or 70% tax rates, when there’s no chance of it actually happening and millions of the woke will like you on Twitter for saying it. If Corbyn had got in you’d have seen a fair few of them ending up in Monaco or Dubai.
I’ll believe the Luvvies are serious about wanting higher taxes, when they actually start writing the cheques voluntarily.
Are you being serious? I only ask because it is such a stupid comment. I would happily pay more tax but unless all the other rich people do then it's pointless. Can you name a single person who advocated for higher taxes then avoided paying them? So far these left wing hypocrites that so enrage PB Tories seem to exist solely in their imagination.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
No matter how far in the bin Sterling happens to be at the time, a newly-launched Scottish currency would depreciate against it, because of the fiscal transfers that currently take place between the U.K. and Scotland.
Just as Sterling depreciated post Brexit. So what?
It's a correction it doesn't matter, especially since we don't have any inflation. If Scotland were to launch a McPound and transition from that into the Euro then a devalued McPound joining the Euro could give the Scots a major boost.
The countries that entered the Euro with a devalued currency (like a post unification Germany) coped better than those that were overvalued (like the Lira).
So you don't think we're going to be bothered by our capital assets falling in value by about 25%? And of course our public services suffering cuts of roughly the same amount to reduce our deficit to a level acceptable to the EU?
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
Yes. A strange attitude given that actors have accompanied us and sustained us largely through the past six months. Actors have brought us much joy and comfort of late.
Apart from Emma Thompson, obvs.
Come on. If you are looking for someone to take on the role of Emma Thompson in a film, then Emma Thompson is pretty darn good.
There was a fantastic letter in The Times a while ago, and I was reminded of it in our current situation when everything the govt denies will be policy we know will be policy in short order.
The letter said something along the lines of: "I'm grateful to Emma Thompson because I find that whenever there is a moral issue that I know I would have to spend time considering to reach an opinion on, I only need see what Emma Thompson thinks and take the opposite position which saves me a great deal of time."
I am doing the letter writer a disservice but that was the gist.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
+1 (asking for a friend).
- an option to pay a "lefty surcharge" tax has been mooted.
Which if you think the tax system should discourage bad behaviour such as holding leftish political views whilst not on your uppers makes a lot of sense. Could raise quite a bit too. Could perhaps even smooth the way to a tax CUT specifically for 'small state' Conservatives.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
I have no time for over paid celebrities and to be fair I have never had
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
Yes. A strange attitude given that actors have accompanied us and sustained us largely through the past six months. Actors have brought us much joy and comfort of late.
Apart from Emma Thompson, obvs.
Come on. If you are looking for someone to take on the role of Emma Thompson in a film, then Emma Thompson is pretty darn good.
There was a fantastic letter in The Times a while ago, and I was reminded of it in our current situation when everything the govt denies will be policy we know will be policy in short order.
The letter said something along the lines of: "I'm grateful to Emma Thompson because I find that whenever there is a moral issue that I know I would have to spend time considering to reach an opinion on, I only need see what Emma Thompson thinks and take the opposite position which saves me a great deal of time."
I am doing the letter writer a disservice but that was the gist.
'What on earth happened to the freedom-loving, twinkly-eyed, Rabelaisian character I voted for? Oliver Hardy has left the stage, replaced by Oliver Cromwell. His government has even said it wants to lower the speed limit on motorways to 60 mph. Didn’t Boris once say that voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3? Where did that guy go?
....Few would dispute that he failed to give the pandemic the attention he should have done in January and February, time he could have spent devising an effective containment strategy. Come March, he was just buffeted by events, one minute saying we should ‘take it on the chin’, the next imposing a full lockdown. His lack of engagement with the detail, both before and after his spell in intensive care, means the government’s response has been led by others around the cabinet table, like Matt Hancock, who seem to be wholly captured by a small coterie of scientific advisors who decided early on that Sars-CoV-2 was ‘the big one’ and have been unwilling to abandon that hypothesis in the light of all the evidence to the contrary.'
I’d say Texas, Georgia and Ohio should be in his column . North Carolina is a toss up , Bloomberg is pumping 100 million dollars into Florida and I think Biden will edge that . Arizona seems to be moving away from Trump , latest NY Times Sienna Poll has Biden ahead by 9 points and I think that should be a Biden pick up also . That 7/4 for all 6 looks ridiculous!
Trump really can't afford to lose any of these. Perhaps Arizona if he's doing particularly well in the rustbelt. But that's an odd combo - it just just goes to show how good a bet Biden is right now.
That lead is based on not just a 2016-non-voter Trump surge but also the complete elimination of the female vote premium.
If they are right then they are the greatest pollsters of all time.
'We found a substantial block of older, white, male voters without a college degree who plan to vote for Trump in 2020. Historically, female voters turnout at a higher rate than men; however this year looks like a 50%/50% split.
Also, we tend to believe many public polls are too narrowly defining who will be voting this year. Polls with tight or narrow likely voter screens or that rely on prior voter history to identify “likely voters” could be missing a block of older male voters who do not always show up on election day, but plan to this year.
....Biden leads by 10 points in urban/suburban areas of the country while Trump is up 40 points in exurban markets. Also, Trump is up nearly 7 points in the swing states, which account for almost a quarter of likely voters in this poll.
....We do see a bloc of male voters without a college degree, who are not regular voters, that are planning to vote this year. They appear to be older (45+), white, and do not have a college degree. To borrow a P. J. O'Rourke book title, many in this group could be described as the “Don't Vote, It Just Encourages the Bastards” voting bloc. Trump leads this group by 10 points (53%/43%), which is a lower margin than in 2016. However, this block only accounted for 16% of voters in 2016. In 2020, it appears they could make up around 25% of voters. Trump is also up 15 points among voters with household incomes of $100k or more, which account for over a third of likely voters at 34% and is up from 2016.
...Fears that we will not know the winner on election night probably have merit. Mail or absentee voting could account for 31% of total votes, including 30% of voters in the swing states. Nearly half (45%) of Biden voters indicate they plan to vote by mail. It could be a long November if things remain the same until election day.'
Further to the above while there has been a swing to Biden amongst white men without a college degree who Trump won 71% to 23% in 2016 (though they may have a higher turnout) there has also been a swing to Trump amongst the the richest voters, in 2016 for example Trump led voters with incomes of $100-$199,999 by only 48% to 47%, voters earning $200 000 to $249 999 by only 49% to 48% and voters earning over $250 000 by only 48% to 46% for Hillary. Trump now leads voters earning over $100 000 a year by 15%.
Messages such as the below from the Biden campaign have clearly won over a few white working class males from Trump but at the cost of seeing some rich Hillary voters shifting to Trump as a result
It does rather remind me of that superb video that said his educational establishments were both top of their States....geographically.
You don't need an Ivy league degree but you do need to be smart.
Interestingly Trump has an Ivy League Degree from the University of Pennsylvania, unlike Biden, this is probably the first Presidential election the Republican candidate has had a more prestigious college degree than the Democratic candidate since Yale postgrad Gerald Ford faced Georgia Institute of Technology graduate Jimmy Carter in 1976 (Trump and Hillary, Romney and Obama, Bush 43 and Gore and Kerry and Bush 41 and Clinton and Dukakis all had Ivy league degrees, McCain, Dole, Reagan and Mondale did not have Ivy League degrees)
That’s mere credentialism. Carter was way smarter than Ford.
And Trump probably had someone else study for him.
Maybe but then Nixon was way smarter than JFK or Humphrey on the same basis.
There is no same basis. Nixon and Trump were/are sociopathic criminals.
My wife is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania (class of '00, same as Trump Jr), She says Penn was a lot easier to get into back in Trump Sr's day.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
I have no time for over paid celebrities and to be fair I have never had
Bit politics of envy that isn't it? Surely they are just getting the market rate for their talent?
Using that theorem, jhb reckons that more than 90% of the positive cases showing up in the UK right now are false positives.
Just think about that for a moment.
Equally to the point, doesn’t that mean that the number of positives will always correlate quite closely with the number of tests, regardless of the spread (or not) of the virus?
The Cambridge Uni stats guy has it like this.
The ONS reckons that the infection rate is one in a thousand. So test a thousand people and you will get (with a test false positive rate of 0.8%).....
1 person who has corona 8 false positives
So nine in one thousand.
So that would imply that currently out of every nine positives the tests are revealing, eight are false positives. At the ONS's current estimate of the infection rate.
Destroy the economy based on that data? Insane. Insane.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How do you know what they do in private? It's perfectly possible to be rich and left-wing without being a hypocrite, just as it's possible to be poor and right-wing without being a victim of false consciousness.
It's also entirely possible to be a luvvie and poor. At one time it was traditional.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
She might well have. Les Francais some time ago moved their consulate to one of the most prominently located buildings in town, on the corner site on the Royal Mile betyween the National Library and the High Kirk, with other French cultural thingies - including a very nice bistro (took my partner there for lunch earlier in the year).
The Auld Alliance?
I wouldn't know - I don't fester in the past unlike certain other political tendencies. But it does, I think, reflect the pro-Europeanism of Scotland, both government and people, compared to the lands south of the border. I also do know that many French in particular know the difference, and have done for some time. When my parents had car trouble in the Normand countryside en route to a Provencal holiday - some 20-30 years ago now? - the local French garagiste sucked his teeth as to whether anything at all could be done, [edit] at least that day, while walking around the car, till he saw the SCO plate on the back - instant change in demeanour and my parents were off again within hours.
Ha! Yes! I meant the bistro though – there is (or was) a French bistro in Edinburgh bearing that name!
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How do you know what they do in private? It's perfectly possible to be rich and left-wing without being a hypocrite, just as it's possible to be poor and right-wing without being a victim of false consciousness.
It's also entirely possible to be a luvvie and poor. At one time it was traditional.
Most of them still are, and many more give it up in order to make a living. If you go into acting for the money you are deluded.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
No matter how far in the bin Sterling happens to be at the time, a newly-launched Scottish currency would depreciate against it, because of the fiscal transfers that currently take place between the U.K. and Scotland.
Just as Sterling depreciated post Brexit. So what?
It's a correction it doesn't matter, especially since we don't have any inflation. If Scotland were to launch a McPound and transition from that into the Euro then a devalued McPound joining the Euro could give the Scots a major boost.
The countries that entered the Euro with a devalued currency (like a post unification Germany) coped better than those that were overvalued (like the Lira).
All correct, but UK banks are not going to redenominate loans made in Sterling into McGroats.
The exchange rate depends on the Scottish government’s ability to run a balanced budget and not issue debt, which would require significant tax increases in Scotland on their Independence Day.
The issue is that getting from Sterling to the Euro requires an intermediate step, and the SNP can’t agree a direct rate between Sterling and the Euro, because Sterling isn’t their currency.
If the SNP want to carry on using the Pound but with no say in monetary policy (which is against Euro entry criteria), the pound would likely appreciate when shorn of the subsidy currently paid from the U.K. to Scotland - a worse position for Scotland trying to join the Euro.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
It's not asked about in the above, but Sturgeon should probably have a chat with the EU about Euro membership. So long as there's a stable currency in prospect for an independent Scotland it would allay fears I think.
We know that the SNP sees the Euro as the end point, but the difficulty is the intermediate stage, where the Euro entry rules first requires a floating Scottish currency that would get smashed to bits on day 1.
This all rather assumes that the Scottish dollar would have any further to drop from the dustbin in which sterling is going to find itself before too much longer. The forthcoming socio-economic collapse may very well leave those seeking to get as far away from the sinking British state as possible with nothing left to lose.
No matter how far in the bin Sterling happens to be at the time, a newly-launched Scottish currency would depreciate against it, because of the fiscal transfers that currently take place between the U.K. and Scotland.
Just as Sterling depreciated post Brexit. So what?
It's a correction it doesn't matter, especially since we don't have any inflation. If Scotland were to launch a McPound and transition from that into the Euro then a devalued McPound joining the Euro could give the Scots a major boost.
The countries that entered the Euro with a devalued currency (like a post unification Germany) coped better than those that were overvalued (like the Lira).
So you don't think we're going to be bothered by our capital assets falling in value by about 25%? And of course our public services suffering cuts of roughly the same amount to reduce our deficit to a level acceptable to the EU?
It's a view, I suppose.
Peak to trough sterling has fallen by more than 25% in recent years.
Using that theorem, jhb reckons that more than 90% of the positive cases showing up in the UK right now are false positives.
Just think about that for a moment.
Equally to the point, doesn’t that mean that the number of positives will always correlate quite closely with the number of tests, regardless of the spread (or not) of the virus?
The Cambridge Uni stats guy has it like this.
The ONS reckons that the infection rate is one in a thousand. So test a thousand people and you will get (with a test false positive rate of 0.8%).....
1 person who has corona 8 false positives
So nine in one thousand.
So that would imply that currently out of every nine positives the tests are revealing, eight are false positives. At the ONS's current estimate of the infection rate.
Destroy the economy based on that data? Insane. Insane.
Do you really think the govt and its many statisticians havent considered this? Think about what happens if you test people with symptoms of covid as we do, instead of 1000 random people?
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
Oh, the Scotland in Union poll is trash. But the idea of asking questions before the "headline" question shouldn't be totally dismissed out of hand.
Indeed, this should be a huge warning shot to the SNP that the currency issue isn't resolved and will once again prove decisive in a referendum. The UK would never have voted to leave the EU had we joined the Euro, the threat to people's savings would have been too large and there would be too many questions about debt denominations. It's actually a good poll in a sense that it points out exactly the areas the SNP needs to address before asking for a referendum.
How on Earth did all those new countries in ex-USSR and ex-Yugoslavia come into being without their currency issues being addressed?
Using that theorem, jhb reckons that more than 90% of the positive cases showing up in the UK right now are false positives.
Just think about that for a moment.
Equally to the point, doesn’t that mean that the number of positives will always correlate quite closely with the number of tests, regardless of the spread (or not) of the virus?
The Cambridge Uni stats guy has it like this.
The ONS reckons that the infection rate is one in a thousand. So test a thousand people and you will get (with a test false positive rate of 0.8%).....
1 person who has corona 8 false positives
So nine in one thousand.
So that would imply that currently out of every nine positives the tests are revealing, eight are false positives. At the ONS's current estimate of the infection rate.
Destroy the economy based on that data? Insane. Insane.
🤦♂️
The issue is not the number of people coming back positive it is the changing rate of people coming back positive.
If false positives were a major issue then as cases rise they become LESS of an issue not more of one (as you have fewer false positives and more false negatives) which means that the increasing rates of positives is actually WORSE than we thought.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
Yes. A strange attitude given that actors have accompanied us and sustained us largely through the past six months. Actors have brought us much joy and comfort of late.
'What on earth happened to the freedom-loving, twinkly-eyed, Rabelaisian character I voted for? Oliver Hardy has left the stage, replaced by Oliver Cromwell. His government has even said it wants to lower the speed limit on motorways to 60 mph. Didn’t Boris once say that voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3? Where did that guy go?
....Few would dispute that he failed to give the pandemic the attention he should have done in January and February, time he could have spent devising an effective containment strategy. Come March, he was just buffeted by events, one minute saying we should ‘take it on the chin’, the next imposing a full lockdown. His lack of engagement with the detail, both before and after his spell in intensive care, means the government’s response has been led by others around the cabinet table, like Matt Hancock, who seem to be wholly captured by a small coterie of scientific advisors who decided early on that Sars-CoV-2 was ‘the big one’ and have been unwilling to abandon that hypothesis in the light of all the evidence to the contrary.'
Until Farage becomes PM, when he will realise Farage would be at least an equally terrible PM and then move onto the next guy. Maybe he should just stop believing people who tell him whatever he wants to hear.
I wonder how they were asked to consider the issues?
It's Scotland in Union. They asked the question as Remain / Leave not Yes / No.
They also asked about the hard border with England after a No Deal Brexit and Scotland rejoining the EU and Scotland losing the £
So a bunch of leading questions. Straight out of Yes, Minister.
Well obviously the No campaign will point out that if Scotland leaves the UK on a No Deal Brexit terms to rejoin the EU it would likely have to join the Euro and face tariffs on all Scottish exports to England where 70% of Scottish exports go.
In 2014 Scotland and England would still be in the single market and EU and even Salmond did not rule out keeping sterling
Yes of course the No campaign will make their own arguments and obviously in your world they will do this in a total vacuum where the Yes campaign say nothing whatsoever and simply have the No campaign being the only side making points. Clearly.
The issue with the Yes campaign last time was it was fond of making promises not remotely within its gift. Seat on the board of the Bank of England being one of the most spectacular, let alone the border claims or that they wouldn't be leaving the UK......
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Thankful to the capitalist system they pretend to want to smash up, that made them rich in the first place?
It’s really easy to say you’d be happy to pay 60% or 70% tax rates, when there’s no chance of it actually happening and millions of the woke will like you on Twitter for saying it. If Corbyn had got in you’d have seen a fair few of them ending up in Monaco or Dubai.
I’ll believe the Luvvies are serious about wanting higher taxes, when they actually start writing the cheques voluntarily.
Just because a system works for you personally does not preclude you disliking the system or wanting to change it. That's a ridiculous position to take. C'mon.
The ICJ may have to uphold international law, the UK courts have to uphold UK law first
A little odd bearing in mind the UK has traditionally been dualist rather than monist about the domestic incorporation of international law, on account of parliamentary sovereignty.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Voodoo poll, if asked if they would be happy with 50% increase in tax 100 % voted NO territory. Just like saying if your granny had testicles would she be your grandpa
No, a Voodoo poll would be like the one the Herald is running.
However, it is bad practice to ask a headline "Yes/No" "Leave/Remain" question after you've asked other questions which might easily influence the result. A better methodology would be to ask the straightforward question first, then ask it again after the currency/border questions.
'What on earth happened to the freedom-loving, twinkly-eyed, Rabelaisian character I voted for? Oliver Hardy has left the stage, replaced by Oliver Cromwell. His government has even said it wants to lower the speed limit on motorways to 60 mph. Didn’t Boris once say that voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3? Where did that guy go?
....Few would dispute that he failed to give the pandemic the attention he should have done in January and February, time he could have spent devising an effective containment strategy. Come March, he was just buffeted by events, one minute saying we should ‘take it on the chin’, the next imposing a full lockdown. His lack of engagement with the detail, both before and after his spell in intensive care, means the government’s response has been led by others around the cabinet table, like Matt Hancock, who seem to be wholly captured by a small coterie of scientific advisors who decided early on that Sars-CoV-2 was ‘the big one’ and have been unwilling to abandon that hypothesis in the light of all the evidence to the contrary.'
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
I have no time for over paid celebrities and to be fair I have never had
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Thankful to the capitalist system they pretend to want to smash up, that made them rich in the first place?
It’s really easy to say you’d be happy to pay 60% or 70% tax rates, when there’s no chance of it actually happening and millions of the woke will like you on Twitter for saying it. If Corbyn had got in you’d have seen a fair few of them ending up in Monaco or Dubai.
I’ll believe the Luvvies are serious about wanting higher taxes, when they actually start writing the cheques voluntarily.
Just because a system works for you personally does not preclude you disliking the system or wanting to change it. That's a ridiculous position to take. C'mon. Thinking cap.
Indeed. It would imply Kim Jong Un is right to support the North Korean regime instead of replacing it with something fairer.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
I have no time for over paid celebrities and to be fair I have never had
Bit politics of envy that isn't it? Surely they are just getting the market rate for their talent?
So moaning about the capitalist system that made them rich, while advocating online for socialist policies that would make them poorer THAT HAVE NO CHANCE OF ACTUALLY HAPPENING.
Under socialism, Gary Lineker would earn the standard £356.73 a week TV presenter wage, negotiated by the TV presenter Union, and not the £1.75m a year he actually gets paid.
I’m guessing he’s quite happy with the current “market rate” system.
Using that theorem, jhb reckons that more than 90% of the positive cases showing up in the UK right now are false positives.
Just think about that for a moment.
Equally to the point, doesn’t that mean that the number of positives will always correlate quite closely with the number of tests, regardless of the spread (or not) of the virus?
The Cambridge Uni stats guy has it like this.
The ONS reckons that the infection rate is one in a thousand. So test a thousand people and you will get (with a test false positive rate of 0.8%).....
1 person who has corona 8 false positives
So nine in one thousand.
So that would imply that currently out of every nine positives the tests are revealing, eight are false positives. At the ONS's current estimate of the infection rate.
Destroy the economy based on that data? Insane. Insane.
So why are the positive numbers rising much faster than the number of tests ?
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
That would be philanthropy. A left-winger would campaign for everyone to pay higher taxes, just as a right-winger would campaign for everyone to pay lower taxes.
Amazingly, some people do do it though. All of £180k from 200 people, according to the FT.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Thankful to the capitalist system they pretend to want to smash up, that made them rich in the first place?
It’s really easy to say you’d be happy to pay 60% or 70% tax rates, when there’s no chance of it actually happening and millions of the woke will like you on Twitter for saying it. If Corbyn had got in you’d have seen a fair few of them ending up in Monaco or Dubai.
I’ll believe the Luvvies are serious about wanting higher taxes, when they actually start writing the cheques voluntarily.
Are you being serious? I only ask because it is such a stupid comment. I would happily pay more tax but unless all the other rich people do then it's pointless. Can you name a single person who advocated for higher taxes then avoided paying them? So far these left wing hypocrites that so enrage PB Tories seem to exist solely in their imagination.
Re "Can you name a single person who advocated for higher taxes then avoided paying them?", I don't think claimed or apparent political affiliation seemed to make much difference on those list of slebs caught up in tax schemes. Not accusing them of deliberate wrongdoing, they took their advice and as it happened the legal findings went against them, but they wouldn't have signed up in the first place if they weren't trying to minimise their tax bill (avoidance not evasion).
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
That would be philanthropy. A left-winger would campaign for everyone to pay higher taxes, just as a right-winger would campaign for everyone to pay lower taxes.
Amazingly, some people do do it though. All of £180k from 200 people, according to the FT.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
I have no time for over paid celebrities and to be fair I have never had
Bit politics of envy that isn't it? Surely they are just getting the market rate for their talent?
So moaning about the capitalist system that made them rich, while advocating online for socialist policies that would make them poorer THAT HAVE NO CHANCE OF ACTUALLY HAPPENING.
Under socialism, Gary Lineker would earn the standard £356.73 a week TV presenter wage, negotiated by the TV presenter Union, and not the £1.75m a year he actually gets paid.
I’m guessing he’s quite happy with the current “market rate” system.
There is nothing intrinsic about socialism, either in theory or practice, that mandates equal "standard" pay.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
That would be philanthropy. A left-winger would campaign for everyone to pay higher taxes, just as a right-winger would campaign for everyone to pay lower taxes.
Amazingly, some people do do it though. All of £180k from 200 people, according to the FT.
'What on earth happened to the freedom-loving, twinkly-eyed, Rabelaisian character I voted for? Oliver Hardy has left the stage, replaced by Oliver Cromwell. His government has even said it wants to lower the speed limit on motorways to 60 mph. Didn’t Boris once say that voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3? Where did that guy go?
....Few would dispute that he failed to give the pandemic the attention he should have done in January and February, time he could have spent devising an effective containment strategy. Come March, he was just buffeted by events, one minute saying we should ‘take it on the chin’, the next imposing a full lockdown. His lack of engagement with the detail, both before and after his spell in intensive care, means the government’s response has been led by others around the cabinet table, like Matt Hancock, who seem to be wholly captured by a small coterie of scientific advisors who decided early on that Sars-CoV-2 was ‘the big one’ and have been unwilling to abandon that hypothesis in the light of all the evidence to the contrary.'
Until Farage becomes PM, when he will realise Farage would be at least an equally terrible PM and then move onto the next guy. Maybe he should just stop believing people who tell him whatever he wants to hear.
Unfortunately, that's a lesson that the whole UK needs to learn. Not just the B thing, but the whole "Scandinavian public services / United States tax rates" concept that has dogged politics for my entire lifetime.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
That would be philanthropy. A left-winger would campaign for everyone to pay higher taxes, just as a right-winger would campaign for everyone to pay lower taxes.
Amazingly, some people do do it though. All of £180k from 200 people, according to the FT.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
Pay voluntary higher tax rates. You can send HMRC a cheque of any value and label it a voluntary tax donation.
That would be philanthropy. A left-winger would campaign for everyone to pay higher taxes, just as a right-winger would campaign for everyone to pay lower taxes.
Amazingly, some people do do it though. All of £180k from 200 people, according to the FT.
Using that theorem, jhb reckons that more than 90% of the positive cases showing up in the UK right now are false positives.
Just think about that for a moment.
Equally to the point, doesn’t that mean that the number of positives will always correlate quite closely with the number of tests, regardless of the spread (or not) of the virus?
The Cambridge Uni stats guy has it like this.
The ONS reckons that the infection rate is one in a thousand. So test a thousand people and you will get (with a test false positive rate of 0.8%).....
1 person who has corona 8 false positives
So nine in one thousand.
So that would imply that currently out of every nine positives the tests are revealing, eight are false positives. At the ONS's current estimate of the infection rate.
Destroy the economy based on that data? Insane. Insane.
🤦♂️
The issue is not the number of people coming back positive it is the changing rate of people coming back positive.
If false positives were a major issue then as cases rise they become LESS of an issue not more of one (as you have fewer false positives and more false negatives) which means that the increasing rates of positives is actually WORSE than we thought.
That is the result of your logic.
maybe but it isn;t the rise in the rate that is being cited as the reason for closing us down. Its the number of cases. And those cases right now are mostly phantoms, on the government's own data.
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
I have no time for over paid celebrities and to be fair I have never had
Bit politics of envy that isn't it? Surely they are just getting the market rate for their talent?
So moaning about the capitalist system that made them rich, while advocating online for socialist policies that would make them poorer THAT HAVE NO CHANCE OF ACTUALLY HAPPENING.
Under socialism, Gary Lineker would earn the standard £356.73 a week TV presenter wage, negotiated by the TV presenter Union, and not the £1.75m a year he actually gets paid.
I’m guessing he’s quite happy with the current “market rate” system.
There is nothing intrinsic about socialism, either in theory or practice, that mandates equal "standard" pay.
"... to each according to his needs" surely gets within hailing distance?
Using that theorem, jhb reckons that more than 90% of the positive cases showing up in the UK right now are false positives.
Just think about that for a moment.
Equally to the point, doesn’t that mean that the number of positives will always correlate quite closely with the number of tests, regardless of the spread (or not) of the virus?
The Cambridge Uni stats guy has it like this.
The ONS reckons that the infection rate is one in a thousand. So test a thousand people and you will get (with a test false positive rate of 0.8%).....
1 person who has corona 8 false positives
So nine in one thousand.
So that would imply that currently out of every nine positives the tests are revealing, eight are false positives. At the ONS's current estimate of the infection rate.
Destroy the economy based on that data? Insane. Insane.
So why are the positive numbers rising much faster than the number of tests ?
There's an issue here about how good we are getting at making sure the people who need a test are getting one. For example, how well contact-tracing is working, whether people recognise what symptoms are more COVIDy and which more flu/coldlike, and so on. I'm not saying that this on its own accounts for the rise in positive tests, just saying that the number of positive tests depends on more than "how many infected people are there" and "how many tests are being given".
The ONS random testing has the advantage of cutting a lot of those factors out, and that's definitely heading north unfortunately.
'The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.
If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.
The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).
Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’
After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
With all respondents included, 47 per cent would vote to remain in the UK and 37 per cent would vote to leave.'
Christ, there is push polling and then, err, this.
Famously the Con 2015 internal polling was in a form most people on here would consider push polling - asking a bunch of "consider issue X" before the voting intention question. It proved to be far more accurate than the national pollsters.
Have you and David just switched sides of the argument in a mutual festival of devil's advocacy?
Oh, the Scotland in Union poll is trash. But the idea of asking questions before the "headline" question shouldn't be totally dismissed out of hand.
Indeed, this should be a huge warning shot to the SNP that the currency issue isn't resolved and will once again prove decisive in a referendum. The UK would never have voted to leave the EU had we joined the Euro, the threat to people's savings would have been too large and there would be too many questions about debt denominations. It's actually a good poll in a sense that it points out exactly the areas the SNP needs to address before asking for a referendum.
How on Earth did all those new countries in ex-USSR and ex-Yugoslavia come into being without their currency issues being addressed?
A civil war in the former Yugoslavia in which 140,000 died and after which most of the new nations of the former Yugoslavia and the USSR are still amongst the poorest in Europe?
Answer the question , do they have a currency, does any country in the world have an issue in having its own currency. Especially any that are totally debt free.
Yes, lots of small, open economies (Montenegro, Luxembourg pre-euro, various Latin American and French West African countries, etc.) have an issue with having their own currencies. The ones that can't tend to fall into one or more of three categories:
a) they have no fiscal track record so the markets assign them poor credit ratings b) their trade is dominated by one much larger neighbour c) they have a very large financial services sector relative to the rest of their economy.
Good thing none of those are true of Scotland, isn't it?
I wonder how they were asked to consider the issues?
It's Scotland in Union. They asked the question as Remain / Leave not Yes / No.
They also asked about the hard border with England after a No Deal Brexit and Scotland rejoining the EU and Scotland losing the £
So a bunch of leading questions. Straight out of Yes, Minister.
Well obviously the No campaign will point out that if Scotland leaves the UK on a No Deal Brexit terms to rejoin the EU it would likely have to join the Euro and face tariffs on all Scottish exports to England where 70% of Scottish exports go.
In 2014 Scotland and England would still be in the single market and EU and even Salmond did not rule out keeping sterling
Yes of course the No campaign will make their own arguments and obviously in your world they will do this in a total vacuum where the Yes campaign say nothing whatsoever and simply have the No campaign being the only side making points. Clearly.
The issue with the Yes campaign last time was it was fond of making promises not remotely within its gift. Seat on the board of the Bank of England being one of the most spectacular, let alone the border claims or that they wouldn't be leaving the UK......
They're not the only campaign to have done that recently...
I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
I have no time for over paid celebrities and to be fair I have never had
Bit politics of envy that isn't it? Surely they are just getting the market rate for their talent?
So moaning about the capitalist system that made them rich, while advocating online for socialist policies that would make them poorer THAT HAVE NO CHANCE OF ACTUALLY HAPPENING.
Under socialism, Gary Lineker would earn the standard £356.73 a week TV presenter wage, negotiated by the TV presenter Union, and not the £1.75m a year he actually gets paid.
I’m guessing he’s quite happy with the current “market rate” system.
I don't ever remember Gary Lineker advocating for that kind of economic set up, so unless you can point me towards his comments on those lines it just seems another straw man argument. I believe he has said he votes Labour and that we should be nice to refugees (and is going to have one living in his house shortly before he is accused of hypocrisy on that score too). Personally I think people should get the going rate for their skills and those who get paid a lot should pay up to half of it in tax so that the government can provide good services. I don't think that is an unreasonable position to take and I'd be more than happy if the government implemented it, and as now I would do nothing to avoid paying what was due. I am pretty rich, I am pretty left wing, I am not a hypocrite.
Comments
We've had our first incarcerated parent case at work now. One of my co-workers has a toddler with the shits (one of the myriad of symptoms occasionally associated with Covid in tiny kiddies.) Inevitable it's proven impossible to get a test for her, with the result that both parents are now locked up for a fortnight. It's a hopeless situation and it's only going to deteriorate.
Either way, bloody hell.
Doubling time approx 19 days.
Bring them in from midnight tonight, then I won't be able to visit my in-laws this weekend!
On a more serious point, how come Leeds isn't included?
It’s really easy to say you’d be happy to pay 60% or 70% tax rates, when there’s no chance of it actually happening and millions of the woke will like you on Twitter for saying it. If Corbyn had got in you’d have seen a fair few of them ending up in Monaco or Dubai.
I’ll believe the Luvvies are serious about wanting higher taxes, when they actually start writing the cheques voluntarily.
I remember wildly clapping him (with scrap jnr) at the Lane just for coming over to take corners in his last season.
Can expect 10k/day when the next data set comes out next Friday for what is happening now.
Then what?
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1306973002890907648
How long until Mourinho drops him for not tackling back enough?
I wonder whether we will start to see an impact on mobility data in areas not subject to a local lockdown, due to the news about testing and cases. That would slow things down at least.
It's a correction it doesn't matter, especially since we don't have any inflation. If Scotland were to launch a McPound and transition from that into the Euro then a devalued McPound joining the Euro could give the Scots a major boost.
The countries that entered the Euro with a devalued currency (like a post unification Germany) coped better than those that were overvalued (like the Lira).
What currency would an independent Scotland use, on the day they leave the U.K.?
Toby Young" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-admit-it-i-was-wrong-to-back-boris
I would happily pay more tax but unless all the other rich people do then it's pointless. Can you name a single person who advocated for higher taxes then avoided paying them? So far these left wing hypocrites that so enrage PB Tories seem to exist solely in their imagination.
It's a view, I suppose.
The letter said something along the lines of: "I'm grateful to Emma Thompson because I find that whenever there is a moral issue that I know I would have to spend time considering to reach an opinion on, I only need see what Emma Thompson thinks and take the opposite position which saves me a great deal of time."
I am doing the letter writer a disservice but that was the gist.
Which if you think the tax system should discourage bad behaviour such as holding leftish political views whilst not on your uppers makes a lot of sense. Could raise quite a bit too. Could perhaps even smooth the way to a tax CUT specifically for 'small state' Conservatives.
....Few would dispute that he failed to give the pandemic the attention he should have done in January and February, time he could have spent devising an effective containment strategy. Come March, he was just buffeted by events, one minute saying we should ‘take it on the chin’, the next imposing a full lockdown. His lack of engagement with the detail, both before and after his spell in intensive care, means the government’s response has been led by others around the cabinet table, like Matt Hancock, who seem to be wholly captured by a small coterie of scientific advisors who decided early on that Sars-CoV-2 was ‘the big one’ and have been unwilling to abandon that hypothesis in the light of all the evidence to the contrary.'
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-admit-it-i-was-wrong-to-back-boris
So basically he wants Farage as PM instead
The ONS reckons that the infection rate is one in a thousand. So test a thousand people and you will get (with a test false positive rate of 0.8%).....
1 person who has corona
8 false positives
So nine in one thousand.
So that would imply that currently out of every nine positives the tests are revealing, eight are false positives. At the ONS's current estimate of the infection rate.
Destroy the economy based on that data? Insane. Insane.
At one time it was traditional.
Leave him Phil, he aint worth it.
The exchange rate depends on the Scottish government’s ability to run a balanced budget and not issue debt, which would require significant tax increases in Scotland on their Independence Day.
The issue is that getting from Sterling to the Euro requires an intermediate step, and the SNP can’t agree a direct rate between Sterling and the Euro, because Sterling isn’t their currency.
If the SNP want to carry on using the Pound but with no say in monetary policy (which is against Euro entry criteria), the pound would likely appreciate when shorn of the subsidy currently paid from the U.K. to Scotland - a worse position for Scotland trying to join the Euro.
The issue is not the number of people coming back positive it is the changing rate of people coming back positive.
If false positives were a major issue then as cases rise they become LESS of an issue not more of one (as you have fewer false positives and more false negatives) which means that the increasing rates of positives is actually WORSE than we thought.
That is the result of your logic.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incorporation_of_international_law
Obviously Lady Hale is cleverer than me so I may be missing the point/context of the quote.
However, it is bad practice to ask a headline "Yes/No" "Leave/Remain" question after you've asked other questions which might easily influence the result. A better methodology would be to ask the straightforward question first, then ask it again after the currency/border questions.
Under socialism, Gary Lineker would earn the standard £356.73 a week TV presenter wage, negotiated by the TV presenter Union, and not the £1.75m a year he actually gets paid.
I’m guessing he’s quite happy with the current “market rate” system.
https://www.ft.com/content/4b3e6db0-e57a-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec
Have a look down this list and tell me you can't spot anyone you'd consider leftie: https://metro.co.uk/2017/06/03/list-of-100-celebrities-caught-in-700-million-tax-relief-scheme-revealed-6681782/
Its insane.
The ONS random testing has the advantage of cutting a lot of those factors out, and that's definitely heading north unfortunately.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales18september2020#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
a) they have no fiscal track record so the markets assign them poor credit ratings
b) their trade is dominated by one much larger neighbour
c) they have a very large financial services sector relative to the rest of their economy.
Good thing none of those are true of Scotland, isn't it?
Personally I think people should get the going rate for their skills and those who get paid a lot should pay up to half of it in tax so that the government can provide good services. I don't think that is an unreasonable position to take and I'd be more than happy if the government implemented it, and as now I would do nothing to avoid paying what was due. I am pretty rich, I am pretty left wing, I am not a hypocrite.