politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

DavidL said:

alex_ said:

DavidL said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DavidL said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DavidL said:

What is the difference between the acceptable certification given on 31st December and the unacceptable certification on 1st January when our legislation is clear that the current regulations remain in place until it is changed? They know we meet their standards. What else could they reasonably require and if there is anything why aren't they requiring it right now?

You are missing the point. The stuff on Jan 1st will OK and so will Jan 2nd and Jan 3rd, but Jan 31st? June 17th?

If they simply accept stuff from us and we decide to let standards slide and import US stuff then it acts as a pipeline - stuff they normally refuse gets in.

There has to be a formal process for managing and certifying stuff. Jan 1st 2021 is not the problem.

With respect I am not. Because I acknowledge that the EU has legitimate rights to ensure that any product which has access to the SM complies with their standards. So long as our standards are their standards there is no issue. If we vary them there is an issue, at least for the products affected. But that arises if and when such a step is taken.

And without an agreed process in place, how are they supposed to know? What guarantees/processes have we put in place to tell them?

None.

That is why there is a problem.

We publish our laws. Do you think that they wouldn't notice if we allowed chlorinated chicken to be imported? I think the Guardian would mention it, at least in passing.

Speaking of which - have the new "Rule of Six" laws been published yet?

They don't come into force until tomorrow. What's the rush?

It might be nice to know what they are.....

..

Beibheirli_C said:

DavidL said:

alex_ said:

DavidL said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DavidL said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DavidL said:

What is the difference between the acceptable certification given on 31st December and the unacceptable certification on 1st January when our legislation is clear that the current regulations remain in place until it is changed? They know we meet their standards. What else could they reasonably require and if there is anything why aren't they requiring it right now?

You are missing the point. The stuff on Jan 1st will OK and so will Jan 2nd and Jan 3rd, but Jan 31st? June 17th?

If they simply accept stuff from us and we decide to let standards slide and import US stuff then it acts as a pipeline - stuff they normally refuse gets in.

There has to be a formal process for managing and certifying stuff. Jan 1st 2021 is not the problem.

With respect I am not. Because I acknowledge that the EU has legitimate rights to ensure that any product which has access to the SM complies with their standards. So long as our standards are their standards there is no issue. If we vary them there is an issue, at least for the products affected. But that arises if and when such a step is taken.

And without an agreed process in place, how are they supposed to know? What guarantees/processes have we put in place to tell them?

None.

That is why there is a problem.

We publish our laws. Do you think that they wouldn't notice if we allowed chlorinated chicken to be imported? I think the Guardian would mention it, at least in passing.

Speaking of which - have the new "Rule of Six" laws been published yet?

They don't come into force until tomorrow. What's the rush?

It might be nice to know what they are.....

We don't know what they are. ManCock still has to go on the Sunday politics shows to tell us the final version.

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

Absentee ballot forms are apparently being sent out with Trump branding.

https://twitter.com/johnbarrowman/status/1304530250487836672?s=21

Not a functioning democracy. But we know that.

What she's missing is that if her state is handing out ballots that look like Trump marketing, if she votes Biden the Team Trump officials who are also running the state election will simply not count her vote.

I like election counts in the UK. They are non-partisan open and transparent. The idea that the people counting the ballots should also be partisan is utterly bonkers.

The US approach is remarkably Stalinist in its methods.

dixiedean said:

alex_ said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blockade France.

France confirmed 10,561 new coronavirus cases on Saturday - the highest daily number since the pandemic began.

This is the first time that COVID-19 infections have topped 10,000 in a single day.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-france-reports-highest-number-of-daily-covid-cases-since-pandemic-began-12070399

Put the Tour de France highlights on ITV4 right now and you'll see part of the reason why.

What's been going on at the Tour de France has been absolutely astonishing (and i say that even as a bit of a COVID sceptic). I've watched mountain finishes where all the usual stuff has been going on absolutely as normal. Spectators running alongside the riders without masks, literally screaming encouragement into their faces and pushing them along. I'm astonished so few of the riders have failed tests and been pulled out. (maybe they have and it's been covered up).

And that's even before you address the issue of the mixing crowds.

The crowd at the start today was ludicrous. Main square rammed. Overflowing into the side streets.
Does France still have a limit on gatherings above 5000?

Yes they do. The mighty Wigan RL just played Catalans in Perpignan in front of 5000.
Which has a usual capacity of 13 000.
So pretty similar to having c 30000 in Old Trafford in distancing terms.

A prediction I made about 6 weeks ago was that Labour would get their first lead sometime in the middle of September.

IshmaelZ said:

Mexicanpete said:

IshmaelZ said:

williamglenn said:

Absentee ballot forms are apparently being sent out with Trump branding.

https://twitter.com/johnbarrowman/status/1304530250487836672?s=21

Is there a sequel where she shows her displeasure by taking even more of her kit off? I'd watch that.

You must have a more sophisticated phone than me to see anything racy, unless at my age I don't notice these things any more

I just doubt the median US recipient-of-dodgy-ballot has quite that cleavage, or displays it so much to make a party political point. And if shown just the initial still and asked to guess what activity she was engaged in I know what I'd say. Perhaps it's just me...

So a perfectly decently clad young lady showing nothing inappropriate that you couldn't see everyday on your average high st and you jump to conclusions that from the hints in your previous postings are definitely correctly inferred to be sexual.....

How very woke of you

LadyG said:

Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

No one will notice

Is it being so cheerful what keeps you going?

By my reckoning that's Con +2 and Lab -1 since the last Opinium.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?

LadyG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

By my reckoning that's Con +2 and Lab -1 since the last Opinium.

Hilarious. Starmer is a dick

Poor you, you must get no sex that you get tumescent over margin of error poll changes.

Was Mrs Thatcher Prime Minister the last time you had sex?

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?

Nah, some of your fellow Brexiteers get the polling horn when Boris Johnson is rude to the EU.

It'll be different when the reality of no deal hits them.

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?

I don't think it's that. The Remain/Brexit proportions are still locked in and very similar, including the rump Liberal Democrat proportion. It may be that all will shift them is the event of no-deal exit itself - notwithstanding the economic fallout from the end of the furlough scheme coming first.

Strictly celebrates Blackpool Tower Ballroom in a specific and limited way. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1304856336879022082

WhisperingOracle said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?

I don't think it's that. The Remain/Brexit proprtions are still locked in and very similar, including the rump Liberal Democrat proportion. It may be that all will shift them is the event of no-deal exit itself.

The proposition that a significant number of people are going to say, "you know what, on reflection I might have got that wrong" as opposed to happily accepting that it is someone else's fault, ideally foreign, is not supported by a lot of cogent evidence.

Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.

So 42% like the UK trashing international law . The country is going to the dogs !

Lol! But how can this be? I mean Boris wants to Break. The. Law.

Surely the Tories should be at -20 by now?

nico679 said:

So 42% like the UK trashing international law . The country is going to the dogs !

Maybe 42% do not like the UK being threatened by the EU

DavidL said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?

I don't think it's that. The Remain/Brexit proprtions are still locked in and very similar, including the rump Liberal Democrat proportion. It may be that all will shift them is the event of no-deal exit itself.

The proposition that a significant number of people are going to say, "you know what, on reflection I might have got that wrong" as opposed to happily accepting that it is someone else's fault, ideally foreign, is not supported by a lot of cogent evidence.

But, Twitter......

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

The question is why do they have any lead

Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

3 point lead Tories as expected

I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK

Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.

LadyG said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?

I fear (for Labour) that he might be. He is just monumentally boring. He's the most boring politician since that guy I've already forgotten.

And his front bench is SHITE. Annliese Dodds, the manic pixie nightmare crone, as Shadow Chancellor?

And then attention turns to Scots Labour....

Are you suggesting Sir Keir is Labour's IDS LadyG?

More like Labour's Francois Hollande in my view if Labour get lucky

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country

Boris is breaking an international treaty which is wrong on so many levels

He should have declared the talks off and prepared for no deal

SouthamObserver said:

In a week when the government has thrown the reddest of red meat to its voting coalition it gets a slight MoE uptick. No surprise, but that meat is clearly not as appetising as it was. And winter is coming.

Yes, they've moved the focus back to Brexit. They're hoping that they will be able to keep doing so for the next 4 years. But I think that Starmer will choose to avoid their traps and so by 2024 we'll have moved on.

malcolmg22 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

3 point lead Tories as expected

I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK

Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.

Wait until Shetlands declare Independence

malcolmg22 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

3 point lead Tories as expected

I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK

Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.

Presumably BigG believes that the appropriate response of a counterparty to any agreement broken under international law should be to ignore it because any even mild complaint would annoy said law breakers political supporters.

Whereas i suspect that the EU long gave up caring about the British electorate - not least because they continue to show support for the UK Government it removes any sense of guilt about any lack of trade agreement between the two countries and the negative impacts for the UK populace. And are quite happy with maintaining their own political support bases who are no doubt quite content with the general position that the British can go f*ck themselves.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.

So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.

Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.

So therefore we are to conclude a big Labour lead is on the way? Keir leads +20 to -8 for Johnson, 12 points?

He does not lead on best PM

malcolmg22 said:

DavidL said:

LadyG said:

Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

No one will notice

The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.

Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.

It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg22 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

3 point lead Tories as expected

I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK

Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.

Wait until Shetlands declare Independence

I sense a few people are slightly underestimating the emotional importance that the Scottish place on the Shetland islands, even if such a prospect were remotely likely... Maybe i'm wrong, and their secession would rock them to the core of their being...

alex_ said:

malcolmg22 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

3 point lead Tories as expected

I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK

Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.

Presumably BigG believes that the appropriate response of a counterparty to any agreement broken under international law should be to ignore it because any even mild complaint would annoy said law breakers political supporters.

Whereas i suspect that the EU long gave up caring about the British electorate - not least because they continue to show support for the UK Government it removes any sense of guilt about any lack of trade agreement between the two countries and the negative impacts for the UK populace. And are quite happy with maintaining their own political support bases who are no doubt quite content with the general position that the British can go f*ck themselves.

Two wrongs do not make a right

Leave voters back reneging on the WA by a 14% margin with regard to the UK internal market, voters overall oppose by a 13% margin
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1304861938959233024?s=20

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country

Boris is breaking an international treaty which is wrong on so many levels

He should have declared the talks off and prepared for no deal

Hang on a minute - i thought you were all in favour of an orderly Brexit with a deal? And yet now you are falling hook line and sinker for any ridiculous propaganda line spun by the British Government and demanding they walk away from the talks as a result?

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.

So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.

Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.

Lol - you know full well if the figures had been different the presses would be stopped and a new thread header inserted. The whole of the chattering classes have gone all Brexit shambles/we hate Boris/love the EU/Covid nightmare this week. It's been massivley ott and every time that happens the public push back.

Truer words were never spoken.

felix said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country

Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.

Contempt for the voters is never a good look....

The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.

alex_ said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304855584131473408

I was right, I am Nostradamus.

So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country

Boris is breaking an international treaty which is wrong on so many levels

He should have declared the talks off and prepared for no deal

Hang on a minute - i thought you were all in favour of an orderly Brexit with a deal? And yet now you are falling hook line and sinker for any ridiculous propaganda line spun by the British Government and demanding they walk away from the talks as a result?

I have always wanted a deal but as the EU have not moved at all then it is no deal

solarflare said:

DavidL said:

LadyG said:

Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

No one will notice

The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.

Not that it really bears worth thinking about, but I do wonder what sort of measures governments would need to be considering if there was something somewhere realistically in between those two extremes.

70% today would basically be a Hollywood apocalypse film. Covid is a massive upheaval and a deep economic stress, but fundamentally hasn't and shouldn't cause our society to keel over (yet, touch wood, etcetera).

One wonders (and desperately hopes wonder will be the limit of the experience) what would a global pandemic with a (hypothetically, say) 10% mortality rate would be like.

I would like to think we would be slightly less equivocal about quarantine for a start.

sarissa said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg22 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

3 point lead Tories as expected

I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK

Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.

Wait until Shetlands declare Independence

Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...

I understand they intend suing for their oil revenues