politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to be betting on Biden in Texas where new poll has him 3%

Gallowgate said:

@Alistair I was referring more to the uproar from UK university lecturers on Twitter generally about the upcoming term.

Indeed. How many of those infected have significant symptoms? I’d hazard a guess that few of them do.

It’s now becoming more of an issue of morality and philosophy: to what extent should we ruin the youth of the young to protect the age of the old?

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1301993506840350720

Cough.

I said last night that the cemetery stuff could be toxic for Trumpton.

Even though I’m not a he said she said fan...

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

It can be odd sometimes what finally causes people to abandon a political figure or cause, when things that might be much worse went uncondemned or supported even in the past. Maybe this time the circumstances and timing have perfectly combined and for once it is shaking those people who have been with him up to now.

But of course people can get unshaken pretty fast too, especially since there were presumably reasons they looked past everything else so far. If those reasons still exist then that could easily see it be merely a blip of outrage.

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Black_Rook said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.
lt
Just as before the last election I said the best thing would be a major Tory landslide, not just because I wanted the Tories to win but because it would release the grasp Corbyn had on the party. Look at Labour nine months later and Corbyn is history and there is very clear "new management". A narrow Corbyn defeat may have left RLB or Laura Pidcock to pick up the baton on a "one more heave" basis, but the hammering made that impossible.

Corbyn never won though unlike Trump in 2016.

If Trump loses he can also constitutionally run again in 2024 and who would bet against him failing to win the nomination unless he is absolutely trounced in November. In 1888 President Cleveland lost his re election battle but ran again in 1892 and won to complete a second term.

Corbyn came within a whisker of winning in 2017 and Trump only won by a whisker in 2016. Both results could have very easily gone the other way, if the Tories hadn't gained so many Scottish seats or if Hillary hadn't ignored the warnings about the Midwest and campaigned there then PM Corbyn could have been meeting President Hillary.

In the popular vote the Tories lead over Labour in 2017 was almost identical to Hillary's lead over Trump in 2016 too.

If he loses this time then I'd happily bet against him not getting the nomination next time. Not only would he be 78 but he's got terrible approval ratings and Americans in general do not like retreads. This is not the 19th Century either.

No Corbyn did not come within a whisker in 2017. Labour won 262 seats and 326 are needed for a majority, so he was 64 seats short of even a nominal majority.

To say he was close is as delusional for a Tory as for a Trotskyite. An unstable Rainbow coalition might have been close, but that would assume that SNP, LibDems, PC and DUP would all back Corbyns manifesto, and that is obvious nonsense.

Corbyn was a long way from winning outright, but he was very close indeed to power.

Forget the Lib Dems: Labour + SNP + Plaid + Green = 302 in 2017. Allowing for the absence of Sinn Fein, if Labour and the SNP had relieved the Tories of ten more seats between them, Corbyn would've been in Downing Street and that's virtually certain. Plaid and the Greens both run to the left of Labour and the SNP would sell their own grannies to the glue factory if it meant getting a second referendum.

A nominal Premiership, but not only an extremely unstable coalition that would have required extreme political nous to negotiate with other parties, but also one without the backing of much of his own parliamentary party.

The idea that we were just a few thousand votes and 10 seats away from Socialism red in tooth and claw is as delusional from the Tories as it is from the Trots.

I never said that though, I said "winning".

In that instance I would indeed define Corbyn becoming Prime Minister as "winning". Indeed I followed up that sentence with the line "... if the Tories hadn't gained so many Scottish seats or if Hillary hadn't ignored the warnings about the Midwest and campaigned there then PM Corbyn could have been meeting President Hillary."

I never said "socialism red in tooth and claw", that is your words not mine, I said "PM Corbyn".

If the SNP had held on to all their seats that they lost to the Tories then Lab+SNP+PC+Green would have been 313 and Con+DUP would have been 316 with Farron's LD 12 as kingmakers.

Do you think Farron or Sturgeon would have found Corbyn acceptable as PM, or indeed Corbyn find them acceptable as coalition partners?

Completely delusional.

To get rid of PM May? Yes absolutely.

Not only that but they would have been incredibly powerful and able to write their own price for supporting Corbyn - and Corbyn may have been prepared to pay those prices.

Sturgeon would definitely have supported Corbyn, but would have also demanded an independence referendum most likely. Corbyn didn't care if the UK broke up and would agree to that if it made he became PM.

As for Farron - he was to the left of the Lib Dems anyway, but what issues did the Lib Dems care for? The EU and electoral reform. Farron could have demanded something like this for his support.

Would they have gone in like Clegg did in 2010? No of course not. But DUP style confidence and supply, with heavy prices extracted is entirely plausible.

No it isn't. Neither May nor Corbyn would have been PM. After a couple of weeks discussions, there would have been no agreement and a further GE.

Who would have blocked agreement?

The SNP? With a chance to have a weakened government desperate for their votes and willing to give a second independence referendum?

Or the Lib Dems? With a chance to have a weakened government desperate for their votes and willing to give a second EU/Electoral Reform referendum?

Both of those parties would have struck the electoral jackpot, as the DUP had until they overplayed their hand..

No, to pass either a second indyref and/or a Brexit referendum should not have been possible by that coalition.

The reason that people are LD, PC, SNP, Green etc is because they have deep and significant objections to lots of other parties policies. I am continually surprised that neither Labour nor Tory posters seem to be able to understand that simple fact.

Lib Dems wouldn't have supported another Sindy ref, A significant part of the Labour party would have refused another Brexit referendum.

Other parties are not tin soldiers to be deployed as the red or blue teams decide, they have agency and autonomy.

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Richard_Nabavi said:

LadyG said:

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

That was a disgraceful abandonment of people in a far away country, of whom Americans know nothing. Very different from disgraceful comments on the sons and daughters, or grandfathers, fathers and brothers, of often staunch Republican voters.

Yes, quite.

https://twitter.com/HonTonyAbbott/status/1301991096797421568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301992112255270918?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301976238643347456?s=20

MrEd said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1301993506840350720

Politico - not a fan of Trump - has an article suggesting back up for Trump’s denial (despite the headline)

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/09/04/esper-defends-trump-fallen-troops-409121

Interesting point re Biden saying “if”. As many have said, this should be gold dust for Biden so, if he thought it was true, there would have been no “if”. The Biden campaign probably thinks job done anyway even if it does prove to be false

Crikey.

That’s a wafer thin rebuttal.

I’m not even sure it’s a rebuttal!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

There's plenty of reason to think it won't in any meaningful way, given the plethora of other things he has said and done. Maybe Biden gets lucky and it snowballs, new revelations about things Trump has said day after day. After all, one of Trump's peverse strengths is saying something else that stirs up a hornets next every day, so there's no time to focus on any of it.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Biden is on fire ...
https://twitter.com/unitecountrypac/status/1301951503515750403?s=21

Powerful, patriotic and presidential from America's next President.

If Americans care about one thing it is patriotism and the military. This is a Ratner moment for Trump. With the polls as they were Biden should have already been heavy odds-on favourite, after today the betting market should have him 1/10 or more on.

Biden looks fucking angry in that clip.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302000600238956547

Good god.

Those are dire numbers for Trumpton.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Yes, I'd have thought so. The difference is this is a direct hit on the values of his supporters.

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Yes, I'd have thought so. The difference is this is a direct hit on the values of his supporters.

Indeed. That's why I said this is a real Ratner moment.

Many may have thought "grab 'em by the pussy" was locker-room banter from a "real man" and not a slick or stiff politician.

Mocking the military? That's a whole different ball game.

LadyG said:

MrEd said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

I was going to mention that. His first sentence on Vietnam was right. The second part wasn’t because many of the people enlisted didn’t have a choice and weren’t as clued up as the middle and upper class draft dodgers (including a certain George W Bush)

But in Trump’s worldview, if you’re poor and uneducated you’re already a ‘sucker’. You should be born with a rich Father, like him.

So in Trumpland the Vietnam dead are indeed suckers. Especially as that stupid war was lost. America loves a winner!

It’s vile but that’s his logic and I’m not yet convinced it will turn away droves of Supporters.

Indeed Trump voters are voting against China, too many Mexican immigrants and globalisation, violence from a few BLM protestors and what they see as attacks on their culture and guns and an excessive lockdown. Plus if they are evangelicals against abortion.

They may find Trump's comments distasteful but they know he makes stupid comments all the time too, indeed polling shows Biden already ahead with the military anyway but Trump will promise more military funds and no prosecutions for vets to counter that

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Yes, I'd have thought so. The difference is this is a direct hit on the values of his supporters.

Indeed. That's why I said this is a real Ratner moment.

Many may have thought "grab 'em by the pussy" was locker-room banter from a "real man" and not a slick or stiff politician.

Mocking the military? That's a whole different ball game.

Not just the military in general, but those who gave their lives. My political judgement might be way out, but to me that is something that will cut through.

MrEd said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1301993506840350720

Politico - not a fan of Trump - has an article suggesting back up for Trump’s denial (despite the headline)

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/09/04/esper-defends-trump-fallen-troops-409121

Interesting point re Biden saying “if”. As many have said, this should be gold dust for Biden so, if he thought it was true, there would have been no “if”. The Biden campaign probably thinks job done anyway even if it does prove to be false

Any sensible politician doesn’t assume a story is confirmed until it’s absolutely certain - and no one has yet gone on the record.
It’s very clear that Biden believes it true, and it is to his credit that he leaves some room for doubt (and that sets another contrast with Trump, who is prepared to believe the worst of his opponents on no evidence at all).
I don’t think his statement loses any of its power because of that.

I think it could be less what Trump said, but more how Biden has responded that may make a difference here.

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Biden is on fire ...
https://twitter.com/unitecountrypac/status/1301951503515750403?s=21

Powerful, patriotic and presidential from America's next President.

If Americans care about one thing it is patriotism and the military. This is a Ratner moment for Trump. With the polls as they were Biden should have already been heavy odds-on favourite, after today the betting market should have him 1/10 or more on.

Biden looks fucking angry in that clip.

For all his flaws as a candidate, it does seem to me that one thing Biden has when he gets it right, and which you cannot teach, is gravitas. There's any number of people who could enumerate at length all the reasons Trump is terrible, and do so with greater eloquence, more visceral emotion, more coherent vision for solutions. And it is odd that no one else on offer was able to beat a candidate who has plenty of flaws.

But for all that, Biden is not a ranter in some entertaining comedic tirade, he's not some hot blooded progressive who gets fired up to the same level of righteous indignation about every little thing that's wrong with the country, regardless of proportion. He has stature that lends weight to when he does go hard.

Will it be enough? We shall see.

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

True. Both Trump and Biden managed 5 draft deferrals on medical grounds. Though John Kerry did serve, and delivered this electrifying speech to Congress when he returned. It was the truth.

https://youtu.be/yixdveuf0GQ

Had the Vietnam war ended up like the Korean war with the South still free from Communist invasion then it would not have been a mistake, the US just lost the will to fight it

It was not a winnable war. MacNamara recognised that himself in 1968.

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

True. Both Trump and Biden managed 5 draft deferrals on medical grounds. Though John Kerry did serve, and delivered this electrifying speech to Congress when he returned. It was the truth.

https://youtu.be/yixdveuf0GQ

Had the Vietnam war ended up like the Korean war with the South still free from Communist invasion then it would not have been a mistake, the US just lost the will to fight it

So what you're saying is if it were not for all the mistakes, then it would not have been a mistake? That if the facts had been different then things would have been different?

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Yes, I'd have thought so. The difference is this is a direct hit on the values of his supporters.

They don't really care for those values. Why else would Evangelicals line up to vote for an adulterous pussy grabber who has never opened a Bible.

Because a couple more Supreme Court judges appointed by a Republican might be enough to overturn Roe v Wade?

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

One of Trump's strongest moments when he was running for the Republican party nomination was when he attacked George W. Bush over 9/11 and the war on terror in South Carolina. Received Republican wisdom was that it would sink his chances but it strengthened him.

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Yes, I'd have thought so. The difference is this is a direct hit on the values of his supporters.

They don't really care for those values. Why else would Evangelicals line up to vote for an adulterous pussy grabber who has never opened a Bible.

Evangelicals like all Christians are very selective about what values they care about. There isn't a single Christian in the world who follows every value in the Bible, there can't be since a great many of them are contradictory. The Evangelicals more than many others are entirely selective. Respecting women's rights? Not top of their concerns.

Of course there are, the Pope and Archbishop of Canterbury for a start, what a ridiculous statement, plus in any case Christianity recognises we are all sinners but you repent of your sins you do not celebrate them

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

@Alistair I was referring more to the uproar from UK university lecturers on Twitter generally about the upcoming term.

Indeed. How many of those infected have significant symptoms? I’d hazard a guess that few of them do.

It’s now becoming more of an issue of morality and philosophy: to what extent should we ruin the youth of the young to protect the age of the old?

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/evidence-slowly-building-for-long-term-heart-problems-post-covid-19/

williamglenn said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

One of Trump's strongest moments when he was running for the Republican party nomination was when he attacked George W. Bush over 9/11 and the war on terror in South Carolina. Received Republican wisdom was that it would sink his chances but it strengthened him.

McCain and the Bushes both hated Trump in part because he was not a neocon.

Clinton and Biden are closer to neocons than Trump is, hence even John Bolton, the King of neocons who hardly sees a country he does not want to bomb or invade, has refused to endorse Trump this year

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

True. Both Trump and Biden managed 5 draft deferrals on medical grounds. Though John Kerry did serve, and delivered this electrifying speech to Congress when he returned. It was the truth.

https://youtu.be/yixdveuf0GQ

Had the Vietnam war ended up like the Korean war with the South still free from Communist invasion then it would not have been a mistake, the US just lost the will to fight it

No, that was the South Vietnamese.
The US made two fundamental mistakes - first trying to prop up a (brutal) French colonial occupation for the best part of a decade, and then backing a leader who had no interest in the welfare of the majority of his people.

Sure, they could have won the war, but there would have been nothing left of Vietnam had they done so.

Korea was fundamentally different; there the US both had a long history of engagement, and were seen as long term allies against the (Japanese) colonial occupier, not allies of the colonial occupier.

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302000600238956547

Good god.

Those are dire numbers for Trumpton.

And one pollster.

Each camp will pick the polls they like and disparage what doesn’t fit their vote.

The Biden camp have a lot more choice....

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

True. Both Trump and Biden managed 5 draft deferrals on medical grounds. Though John Kerry did serve, and delivered this electrifying speech to Congress when he returned. It was the truth.

https://youtu.be/yixdveuf0GQ

Had the Vietnam war ended up like the Korean war with the South still free from Communist invasion then it would not have been a mistake, the US just lost the will to fight it

So what you're saying is if it were not for all the mistakes, then it would not have been a mistake? That if the facts had been different then things would have been different?

Had they had the military will to keep the Vietcong out of South Vietnam they could have done, it was the Democrats in Congress who refused to fund the war that lost it for the US and forced Ford to pull out

LadyG said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

True. Both Trump and Biden managed 5 draft deferrals on medical grounds. Though John Kerry did serve, and delivered this electrifying speech to Congress when he returned. It was the truth.

https://youtu.be/yixdveuf0GQ

Had the Vietnam war ended up like the Korean war with the South still free from Communist invasion then it would not have been a mistake, the US just lost the will to fight it

The US lost the will to fight it because they lost the war. They were defeated. The Tet Offensive (albeit a disaster for the Viet Cong, militarily) showed that the North would never give up, they could not be defeated (because China, USSR), the only choice was to pour endless American men into the mincing machine for the rest of time. That’s a defeat.

Same way the Soviet Union was defeated in Afghanistan.

North Vietnam may not have been captured but neither was North Korea, however South Vietnam like South Korea could have been kept free

SouthamObserver said:

I think it could be less what Trump said, but more how Biden has responded that may make a difference here.

So much for ‘Hiden Biden’.
Another flub from Trump.

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

Do you agree with his stance on face-masks?

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

True. Both Trump and Biden managed 5 draft deferrals on medical grounds. Though John Kerry did serve, and delivered this electrifying speech to Congress when he returned. It was the truth.

https://youtu.be/yixdveuf0GQ

Had the Vietnam war ended up like the Korean war with the South still free from Communist invasion then it would not have been a mistake, the US just lost the will to fight it

So what you're saying is if it were not for all the mistakes, then it would not have been a mistake? That if the facts had been different then things would have been different?

Had they had the military will to keep the Vietcong out of South Vietnam they could have done, it was the Democrats in Congress who refused to fund the war that lost it for the US and forced Ford to pull out

The fact that the South Vietnamese government repeatedly lied to the US didn't help.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Yes, I'd have thought so. The difference is this is a direct hit on the values of his supporters.

They don't really care for those values. Why else would Evangelicals line up to vote for an adulterous pussy grabber who has never opened a Bible.

Evangelicals like all Christians are very selective about what values they care about. There isn't a single Christian in the world who follows every value in the Bible, there can't be since a great many of them are contradictory. The Evangelicals more than many others are entirely selective. Respecting women's rights? Not top of their concerns.

Of course there are, the Pope and Archbishop of Canterbury for a start, what a ridiculous statement, plus in any case Christianity recognises we are all sinners but you repent of your sins you do not celebrate them

Its not a ridiculous statement and if you actually knew what the Bible says or had ever read it and not just cherrypicked passages then you would know that.

But if you cherrypick Bible passages like you cherrypick polls then you'll be fine.

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Yes, I'd have thought so. The difference is this is a direct hit on the values of his supporters.

They don't really care for those values. Why else would Evangelicals line up to vote for an adulterous pussy grabber who has never opened a Bible.

Because a couple more Supreme Court judges appointed by a Republican might be enough to overturn Roe v Wade?

Overturning Roe v Wade would be a disaster for the Republican Party.

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302000600238956547

Good god.

Those are dire numbers for Trumpton.

And one pollster.

Each camp will pick the polls they like and disparage what doesn’t fit their vote.

Yes, I have noticed you only seem to comment on the very few polls that fit your narrative.

It’s gracious of you to admit it.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Yes, I'd have thought so. The difference is this is a direct hit on the values of his supporters.

They don't really care for those values. Why else would Evangelicals line up to vote for an adulterous pussy grabber who has never opened a Bible.

Evangelicals like all Christians are very selective about what values they care about. There isn't a single Christian in the world who follows every value in the Bible, there can't be since a great many of them are contradictory. The Evangelicals more than many others are entirely selective. Respecting women's rights? Not top of their concerns.

Of course there are, the Pope and Archbishop of Canterbury for a start, what a ridiculous statement, plus in any case Christianity recognises we are all sinners but you repent of your sins you do not celebrate them

Its not a ridiculous statement and if you actually knew what the Bible says or had ever read it and not just cherrypicked passages then you would know that.

But if you cherrypick Bible passages like you cherrypick polls then you'll be fine.

Oh it absolutely is a ridiculous statement, please show me all the bible passages which directly contradict each other then

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

rcs1000 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Biden is on fire ...
https://twitter.com/unitecountrypac/status/1301951503515750403?s=21

He sounds sick and out of breath.

He also says “deplorable”, his tears look a bit fake, and he says “backbown” rather than “backbone”.

I’m going out on a limb: I reckon Trump survives this.

Of course he survives this.

However, what it does is make it that tiny bit harder for Trump to close the gap.

Unless it allows Trump to frame the election as a referendum on US military interventions.

LadyG said:

HYUFD said:

LadyG said:

MrEd said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

I was going to mention that. His first sentence on Vietnam was right. The second part wasn’t because many of the people enlisted didn’t have a choice and weren’t as clued up as the middle and upper class draft dodgers (including a certain George W Bush)

But in Trump’s worldview, if you’re poor and uneducated you’re already a ‘sucker’. You should be born with a rich Father, like him.

So in Trumpland the Vietnam dead are indeed suckers. Especially as that stupid war was lost. America loves a winner!

It’s vile but that’s his logic and I’m not yet convinced it will turn away droves of Supporters.

Indeed Trump voters are voting against China, too many Mexican immigrants and globalisation and an excessive lockdown.

They may find Trump's comments distasteful but they know he makes stupid comments all the time too, indeed polling shows Biden already ahead with the military anyway but Trump will promise more military funds and no prosecutions for vets to counter that

Trump is possibly (unwittingly?) tapping into an anti-military, isolationist mood in America. Which is why his Kurdish debacle didn’t hurt him. Americans are tired of fighting. They don’t want to police the world. Let China run Asia. And yes, Vietnam was stupid and costly and so was Iraq.

A lot of poorer Americans will eagerly agree with this. Not enough to win him the election but maybe enough to prevent humiliation?

Isolationist social conservatives tend also to be strong admirers of the military. I don’t think they’ll be at all pleased by Trump’s comments.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump admitted to sexually assaulting women with his 'grab 'em by the pussy' comments and didn't harm him, are we sure these sucker comments will have any impact on his support?

Yes, I'd have thought so. The difference is this is a direct hit on the values of his supporters.

They don't really care for those values. Why else would Evangelicals line up to vote for an adulterous pussy grabber who has never opened a Bible.

Evangelicals like all Christians are very selective about what values they care about. There isn't a single Christian in the world who follows every value in the Bible, there can't be since a great many of them are contradictory. The Evangelicals more than many others are entirely selective. Respecting women's rights? Not top of their concerns.

Of course there are, the Pope and Archbishop of Canterbury for a start, what a ridiculous statement, plus in any case Christianity recognises we are all sinners but you repent of your sins you do not celebrate them

As an Evangelical, I would vote for Trump over Biden were I a Yank. Not because I think Trump is more moral than Biden, but because he's much more likely to allow religious freedom to continue, much more likely to be pro-life, much more likely to appoint SC justices who won't support anti-christian discrimination laws etc. That's the calculation if you're an Evangelical - you might think Biden is the nicer guy, but that's not what the election is about.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

LadyG said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hesitate to comment on US politics, but it feels like today may be quite a significant day in the presidential race ...
https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1301930689084952577?s=21

Trump is a horrible piece of work but I thought his disgraceful abandonment of the Kurds would kill him with patriotic, veteran-loving America. It didn’t.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that despite his disgraceful and disgusting comments that people still vote for him.

Trump is also, ironically, quite right about Vietnam. A stupid war and the poor grunts that went there were “the suckers” who couldn’t evade service. This was because they were generally poor, often black.

Trump has a gift for saying audaciously true things in the most obnoxious way possible.

True. Both Trump and Biden managed 5 draft deferrals on medical grounds. Though John Kerry did serve, and delivered this electrifying speech to Congress when he returned. It was the truth.

https://youtu.be/yixdveuf0GQ

Had the Vietnam war ended up like the Korean war with the South still free from Communist invasion then it would not have been a mistake, the US just lost the will to fight it

So what you're saying is if it were not for all the mistakes, then it would not have been a mistake? That if the facts had been different then things would have been different?

Had they had the military will to keep the Vietcong out of South Vietnam they could have done, it was the Democrats in Congress who refused to fund the war that lost it for the US and forced Ford to pull out

The USA had no military presence in Vietnam by the time Ford became President.

The ARVN were a rotten shell by then. No amount of further aid could have saved them after Nixon had pulled the troops out.

The war was totally lost by then, and indeed was probably always unwinnable.