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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to be betting on Biden in Texas where new poll has him 3% ahead

A Data for Progress poll on the White House race in Texas, the second biggest state, has Biden leading Trump by 48% to 45%. This follows a Public Policy Polling survey yesterday that had Biden 1% ahead.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Well I've said I'd eat a pizza with pineapples on it if Biden wins Texas.

The way 2020 is turning out...

rottenborough

I'm already on Biden in TX.

Alistair

The entire Biden press conference is full of spice.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301934807438548993?s=19

rottenborough

Way I'm feeling at the moment with Trump and the 'law and order' election - pretty sure I will lose my TX bet though.

TheScreamingEagles

This is what worries me.

Biden getting close but losing Texas, whilst shedding votes where he needs to win.

Don't let me down Joe.

Omnium

Biden could win. Such a low bar.

Trump will win.

Alistair

Important part of the poll is that in the Senate race the Dem candidate is 6 points down on Cornyn so it isn't just a big Dem bias (I mean it could still be a big Dem bias but it is not the only thing driving that result)

Alistair

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

Philip_Thompson

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

LadyG

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

Gallowgate

I see someone still has confidence in central London. MSD is planning to build a £1bn research hub opposite King's Cross station.

Alistair

The generic congressional ballot figure on the other hand should be terrifying to the GOP

They led by 26 points in 2016, on that poll they lead by 2.

Gallowgate

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

Don't Americans do this a lot? I've heard lots of public speakers say "I quote" and "end quote" when speaking to be clear they are quoting someone.

LadyG

Well, at least someone’s finally made this clear.

https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1301914379479326725?s=21

rcs1000

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

New video by Paul Joseph Watson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olXipfCKUoo

It’s not a good enough reason to vote for Trump but it will sure make a lot of Americans think about which side they want to be on.

This is why I'd go third party.

Some of Trump's policies and the positions of the Republican Party I agree with.

But he's a stratospheric tw*t and an evil c**t.

So I'd never vote for him.

Its why I'd vote Biden.

Biden is sane and not represented by the extreme idiots that get highlighted, unlike Sanders.

I could have also voted if I were an American for McCain and Romney . . . and if either of them had won, then I don't think Trump would have ever made it.

A vote for Biden is a vote to get rid of Trump and a vote not to have the extremists on the Democrat side either. If Biden loses then next time the Democratic nominee could be someone on the lines of Sanders and AOC, and they could actually win like Trump did.

A vote for Biden is a vote for sanity. In both the GOP and the Democrats.

I think Romney would have been a genuinely excellent President (not least because he made the best gags).

Ultimately, what matters is process not people. So while I think Biden will be a poor President...

He will not further damage the American system of government. He will respect the separation of powers in the constitution. He won't continually attempt to circumvent Congress via Executive Orders. He won't deliberately forment division for electoral purposes. He won't mix his personal business and his the business of the Head of State. He won't claim that he could shoot someone in Park Avenue and it wouldn't be illegal. He won't blithely accept the word of foreign leaders over his own intelligence services. And he won't repeatedly and blatantly lie.

This is not about "extremists". There is a lot I agree with Trump on: I think the US has done a terrible job at looking after its manufacturing base, and dealing with the consequences of globalisation. I think it's failed to make it so that people are encouraged to play by the rules for immigration.

But the Presidency is not an Imperial role. I've always said "better a good system than a great person". And Trump isn't even a great person. What he is is someone who is undermining the very systems that make America great.

rcs1000

When a pollster has "progress" in its name, there's a reasonable chance that it's skewed Leftwards!

nichomar

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

LadyG

Gallowgate said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

Don't Americans do this a lot? I've heard lots of public speakers say "I quote" and "end quote" when speaking to be clear they are quoting someone.

No. He’s surely doing what Corbyn did. Reading the prompts meant for himself.

Jesus, he just sounds so old and pathetic. Yet he is the only way to stop Trump.

God help America

kle4

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks like the Government is going with Abbott. Probably the right decision, another u-turn would have just looked like being tossed from pillar to post even more than they are currently.

Good. The government need to make appointments and stick by them.

A vocal group of left-wing activists will vociferously object to the appointment of anyone to the right of Corbyn to any government role, as was demonstrated a couple of years ago when someone who started a chain of free schools was hounded out of an education body for something he’d said on Twitter a decade previously.

That would be the charming fellow who said that he enjoyed a w**k over starving kids in africa?

That was actually a joke, which everyone with two braincells to rub together knows, and a rather funny one at that too. Frankie Boyle used to make them too. Frequently. And Stewart Lee.

In was in relation to Jane tweeting about comic relief @SongBird2407 that she'd ‘gone through about 5 boxes of kleenex’ whilst watching the distressing scenes.

Young responded with: “Me Too, I havn’t w***** so much in ages.” #ComicRelief

I defy anyone to say they haven't laughed at a similar risque joke in the past containing controversy or dark humour.

This sort of stuff is the staple of comedy club stand-ups.

Would you say that was an example of right wing comedy? I'm not sure it is myself. It's just making fun of lachrymose virtue signalling. Right wing comedy, for me, needs to be satirizing things like public ownership and waste in government and high levels of income tax.

BTW John Cleese was old farting away on R4 the other day saying he couldn't imagine a "woke joke". Seemed to think "woke" meant being overly nice and sensitive about everything rather than, whether one is nice or not, being aware of deep-rooted inequalities of race and gender.

Still, very funny in his time, Cleese.

I'd say it's just an example of comedy, although I accept it's not to everyone's taste.

Cleese is also right, here. I cannot conceive of a ‘woke joke’. Comedy is all about breaking taboos. Wokeness is all about the creation - and enforcement - of new taboos. Comedy and Wokeness are fundamentally at odds.

Woke is a word coined by African Americans to describe other African Americans becoming aware of the role of systemic racism in their life.

Woke doesn't mean "people you don't like".

The meaning of words evolves, regardless of who coined them and what for, and that one is definitely broader now.

Not as stupidly as gaslighting, which I have seen used several times recently to in effect mean someone disagrees with the speaker, but it has broadened. An appeal to the limited, initial meaning is just silly, like getting bent out of shape that decimate doesnt mean actual decimation anymore.

kle4

Gallowgate said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

Don't Americans do this a lot? I've heard lots of public speakers say "I quote" and "end quote" when speaking to be clear they are quoting someone.

I've heard enquote.

LadyG

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

A close friend of mine is in a coma, with a very poor prognosis. Another is seriously ill. It has got near to me, and it’s not done yet, I fear.

TimT

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

There has also, as a result of BLM, been large-scale voter registration drives in both the Black and Latino populations in order not to get Dems elected, but to get Black and Latino political representatives (who mostly will be Dems, of course). It think the change of focus - to get their own political representatives, rather than elect vanilla Dems - is likely to be far more effective than previous Dem voter drives.

Also, the Latino population has been the hardest hit of any by COVID in the US. More so than the Black population.

All of that might be in play in Texas where, of course, there is a very large Latino population.

Alistair

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

kle4

I hope Biden takes Texas and demolisheams Trump, just wipes that arrogance from the man.

But theres still so long to go. And try as I might I dont get America. Too much info filtered through anti trump anti Republican voices maybe.

Black_Rook

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

Pretty much, yes - thank goodness. And long may it continue.

I don't know anyone who has had the thing, or at any rate had either a positive test or any form of symptomatic infection. A friend of mine has a cousin in Cardiff who was very ill with it indeed, but that's about it.

noneoftheabove

Gallowgate said:

I see someone still has confidence in central London. MSD is planning to build a £1bn research hub opposite King's Cross station.

Kings Cross and surrounds is the best example of regeneration in London and obviously has exceptional transport links, again probably the best in London. Investor confidence in that particular area may not be representative of the city.

LadyG

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Black_Rook

LadyG said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

A close friend of mine is in a coma, with a very poor prognosis. Another is seriously ill. It has got near to me, and it’s not done yet, I fear.

Like everything else in life, it's mainly down to the luck of the draw.

Alistair

LadyG said:

Gallowgate said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

Don't Americans do this a lot? I've heard lots of public speakers say "I quote" and "end quote" when speaking to be clear they are quoting someone.

No. He’s surely doing what Corbyn did. Reading the prompts meant for himself.

Jesus, he just sounds so old and pathetic. Yet he is the only way to stop Trump.

God help America

Or not if you look at the context of him quoting people.

Alistair

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

LadyG

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Philip_Thompson

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

He didn't stumble, he was quoting someone and said quote at start and end quote at the end as is common with American public speakers when quoting people. That's not a stumble.

Alistair

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

nichomar

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

Pretty much, yes - thank goodness. And long may it continue.

I don't know anyone who has had the thing, or at any rate had either a positive test or any form of symptomatic infection. A friend of mine has a cousin in Cardiff who was very ill with it indeed, but that's about it.

In no way am I belittling the impact of the virus but wondered if part of the reaction to it is that it is still remote and happening to someone else.

BluestBlue

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks like the Government is going with Abbott. Probably the right decision, another u-turn would have just looked like being tossed from pillar to post even more than they are currently.

Good. The government need to make appointments and stick by them.

A vocal group of left-wing activists will vociferously object to the appointment of anyone to the right of Corbyn to any government role, as was demonstrated a couple of years ago when someone who started a chain of free schools was hounded out of an education body for something he’d said on Twitter a decade previously.

That would be the charming fellow who said that he enjoyed a w**k over starving kids in africa?

That was actually a joke, which everyone with two braincells to rub together knows, and a rather funny one at that too. Frankie Boyle used to make them too. Frequently. And Stewart Lee.

In was in relation to Jane tweeting about comic relief @SongBird2407 that she'd ‘gone through about 5 boxes of kleenex’ whilst watching the distressing scenes.

Young responded with: “Me Too, I havn’t w***** so much in ages.” #ComicRelief

I defy anyone to say they haven't laughed at a similar risque joke in the past containing controversy or dark humour.

This sort of stuff is the staple of comedy club stand-ups.

Would you say that was an example of right wing comedy? I'm not sure it is myself. It's just making fun of lachrymose virtue signalling. Right wing comedy, for me, needs to be satirizing things like public ownership and waste in government and high levels of income tax.

BTW John Cleese was old farting away on R4 the other day saying he couldn't imagine a "woke joke". Seemed to think "woke" meant being overly nice and sensitive about everything rather than, whether one is nice or not, being aware of deep-rooted inequalities of race and gender.

Still, very funny in his time, Cleese.

I'd say it's just an example of comedy, although I accept it's not to everyone's taste.

Cleese is also right, here. I cannot conceive of a ‘woke joke’. Comedy is all about breaking taboos. Wokeness is all about the creation - and enforcement - of new taboos. Comedy and Wokeness are fundamentally at odds.

Woke is a word coined by African Americans to describe other African Americans becoming aware of the role of systemic racism in their life.

Woke doesn't mean "people you don't like".

The meaning of words evolves, regardless of who coined them and what for, and that one is definitely broader now.

Not as stupidly as gaslighting, which I have seen used several times recently to in effect mean someone disagrees with the speaker, but it has broadened. An appeal to the limited, initial meaning is just silly, like getting bent out of shape that decimate doesnt mean actual decimation anymore.

Whaaat? I'm not giving up on decimation! When I talk about my ten-pin bowling record, saying that I decimated the pins sounds so much better than 'I managed to hit only one of them'...

Anabobazina

It would be a miracle if Biden beats Trumpton in Texas.

That won’t happen.

That all said, I’m on record as saying Trump will win. All my instincts say the odious moron wins again, albeit losing the popular vote.

And yet...

When I did the EC on RCP, it ended up with Biden winning 270-268.

It could maybe happen.

LadyG

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Pro_Rata

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

My personal knowledge of COVID is as follows:

A old drinking friend of my father in law died after catching it in hospital in London.
Three people in my wife's manufacturing works have had mild cases, at different times, though none were direct contacts.of my wife at the relevant times.
The one team mate of mine who is struggling with the sort of long term health problems typical of COVID was actually afflicted by flu late last year.

kinabalu

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

Thanks for Trump propaganda take. We do need more of it for balance.

Meanwhile back on main street - that was powerful from Joe Biden. Authentic.

I wonder if he will win Texas but not Florida. That would be quite a narrative.

Alistair

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Philip_Thompson

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.

Just as before the last election I said the best thing would be a major Tory landslide, not just because I wanted the Tories to win but because it would release the grasp Corbyn had on the party. Look at Labour nine months later and Corbyn is history and there is very clear "new management". A narrow Corbyn defeat may have left RLB or Laura Pidcock to pick up the baton on a "one more heave" basis, but the hammering made that impossible.

Philip_Thompson

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

It helps Biden that on the subject of Laura Norder he is the only one who is actually calling for calm and an end to violence. He is acting more Presidential than the President.

noneoftheabove

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Trumps best chance is to focus on the economy, especially the stock market, and putting as much pressure as he can on getting a vaccine approved by polling day.

LadyG

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

Mexicanpete

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.

Just as before the last election I said the best thing would be a major Tory landslide, not just because I wanted the Tories to win but because it would release the grasp Corbyn had on the party. Look at Labour nine months later and Corbyn is history and there is very clear "new management". A narrow Corbyn defeat may have left RLB or Laura Pidcock to pick up the baton on a "one more heave" basis, but the hammering made that impossible.

You may have a point.

Nigelb

Mitch McConnell May Have Accidentally Saved Obamacare
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/supreme-court-congress-aca-cares-act-ruling.html
... Here, the overrides are neither a scrivener’s error nor unconstitutional. The two laws deliberately expand the Affordable Care Act in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, no one questions the constitutionality of either law. What matters is how these two laws override the district court decision that lead to California v. Texas...

It’s difficult to argue with the logic of the article.
The headbangers on the Supreme Court might still vote to uphold the district court in California v. Texas, but it is very hard indeed to see Roberts doing so.

Philip_Thompson

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

Fans of his getting excited about his Conference?

What momentum do you think he has gained? The polls haven't shown any movement to him.

Nigelb

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

Has he ?

HYUFD

The Texas poll is undoubtedly good news for Biden, though it is still very close there and most polls still have Trump ahead in the state.

Interesting though no mention in the thread header of today's Trafalgar group poll putting Trump 3% ahead in the key swing state of Florida

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301888665761861634?s=20

Sunil_Prasannan

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump doesn't believe in face-masks.

stodge

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.

Yes, there has to be no scintilla of room for Trump or his acolytes to cry "foul" or claim the election was "stolen" or "rigged".

What worries me more is the Transition - I suspect Trump and his odious entourage will behave like a group of spoilt brats once the election is over providing no leadership or help to the incoming Biden Administration. Pardons will be issued and the White House will be subject to a "scorched Earth" of destroyed documents before the Biden team move in.

I have to say the contrast with the handover from George W Bush to Obama will be marked.

noneoftheabove

Nigelb said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

Has he ?

Yes, a little recently.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Looks like regression to me, just back to his average after a dip. Most people have made up their mind, he cant go far either way from his ratings.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301943635492167680?s=20

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301944633841324038?s=20

LadyG

Nigelb said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

Has he ?

In polls, maybe, very modestly, in the betting markets, yes

“Polling explainer: is the race for the White House tightening?“

https://www.ft.com/content/b3297609-e63b-4161-8287-7ab1179d0c40

Nigelb

Philip_Thompson said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

He didn't stumble, he was quoting someone and said quote at start and end quote at the end as is common with American public speakers when quoting people. That's not a stumble.

Donald Trump campaign repeatedly doctoring videos for social media ads
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/04/donald-trump-campaign-doctoring-joe-biden-videos-manipulated-media-twitter

rcs1000

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1301966055401816066?s=20

noneoftheabove

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Black_Rook

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

Pretty much, yes - thank goodness. And long may it continue.

I don't know anyone who has had the thing, or at any rate had either a positive test or any form of symptomatic infection. A friend of mine has a cousin in Cardiff who was very ill with it indeed, but that's about it.

In no way am I belittling the impact of the virus but wondered if part of the reaction to it is that it is still remote and happening to someone else.

I can't speak for the situation in America, but I think that the threat in this country feels very real for a great many people, especially those who are older, medically vulnerable or worried well, regardless of whether the disease has been exacting a serious toll in their area or not.

I've been having a look at the ONS map of certified Covid deaths, and it is remarkable how lightly the vast majority of counting areas in market town and rural England and Wales have escaped from this pandemic. Death totals under five are routine; some of them have had no fatalities at all.

Despite this, however, I would strongly suspect that people in the more vulnerable and anxious parts of the population in little villages up in the Yorkshire Dales have been just as frightened as those living in Haringey.

rcs1000

LadyG said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

A close friend of mine is in a coma, with a very poor prognosis. Another is seriously ill. It has got near to me, and it’s not done yet, I fear.

Oh, the data on the long-term effects of CV19 keep coming out, and keep getting worse. Have you seen https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/evidence-slowly-building-for-long-term-heart-problems-post-covid-19/

There's a very real possibility that those countries that dealt least well with CV19 are going to have residual health issues for their citizens for decades to come.

Alistair

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

What momentum? His position in the polls is basically the same as it was a month ago.

August 3rd - 538 polling average

Biden : 50.4
Trump : 42.3

Yesterday
Biden : 50.4
Trump : 43.0

At this rate Trump's unstoppable momentum will get him level pegging in 11 months time.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Yes but those Trump voters have not gone to Biden so could just have gone from vocal to silent Trump supporters

kinabalu

HYUFD said:

The Texas poll is undoubtedly good news for Biden, though it is still very close there and most polls still have Trump ahead in the state.

Interesting though no mention in the thread header of today's Trafalgar group poll putting Trump 3% ahead in the key swing state of Florida

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301888665761861634?s=20

Trafalgar = King James ☺

Charles

Gallowgate said:

I see someone still has confidence in central London. MSD is planning to build a £1bn research hub opposite King's Cross station.

They’ve been the the area for a while.

But the Crick is a serious draw

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.

Just as before the last election I said the best thing would be a major Tory landslide, not just because I wanted the Tories to win but because it would release the grasp Corbyn had on the party. Look at Labour nine months later and Corbyn is history and there is very clear "new management". A narrow Corbyn defeat may have left RLB or Laura Pidcock to pick up the baton on a "one more heave" basis, but the hammering made that impossible.

Corbyn never won though unlike Trump in 2016.

If Trump loses he can also constitutionally run again in 2024 and who would bet against him failing to win the nomination unless he is absolutely trounced in November. In 1888 President Cleveland lost his re election battle but ran again in 1892 and won to complete a second term.

kinabalu

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Yes - how one can still be a floater I do not know.

LadyG

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

A close friend of mine is in a coma, with a very poor prognosis. Another is seriously ill. It has got near to me, and it’s not done yet, I fear.

Oh, the data on the long-term effects of CV19 keep coming out, and keep getting worse. Have you seen https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/evidence-slowly-building-for-long-term-heart-problems-post-covid-19/

There's a very real possibility that those countries that dealt least well with CV19 are going to have residual health issues for their citizens for decades to come.

Yes I saw that today. Gloomy

Philip_Thompson

LadyG said:

Nigelb said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

Has he ?

In polls, maybe, very modestly, in the betting markets, yes

“Polling explainer: is the race for the White House tightening?“

https://www.ft.com/content/b3297609-e63b-4161-8287-7ab1179d0c40

The betting markets don't mean he has momentum, that's like saying a Twitter poll is momentum. The betting markets are led by people like you who think this will help Trump . . . not voters telling pollsters that they are changing to back Trump.

Sandpit

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Yes - how one can still be a floater I do not know.

Yet the turnout will barely be 50%.

noneoftheabove

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Yes - how one can still be a floater I do not know.

There will be a few who dislike Trump but think the economy is better with a Republican president. If economy=stock market they might be right.

I think thats the biggest pool of floating voters, those weighing up their wallet vs a return to more civility.

CorrectHorseBattery

https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1301969143911022598

Philip_Thompson

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.
lt
Just as before the last election I said the best thing would be a major Tory landslide, not just because I wanted the Tories to win but because it would release the grasp Corbyn had on the party. Look at Labour nine months later and Corbyn is history and there is very clear "new management". A narrow Corbyn defeat may have left RLB or Laura Pidcock to pick up the baton on a "one more heave" basis, but the hammering made that impossible.

Corbyn never won though unlike Trump in 2016.

If Trump loses he can also constitutionally run again in 2024 and who would bet against him failing to win the nomination unless he is absolutely trounced in November. In 1888 President Cleveland lost his re election battle but ran again in 1892 and won to complete a second term.

Corbyn came within a whisker of winning in 2017 and Trump only won by a whisker in 2016. Both results could have very easily gone the other way, if the Tories hadn't gained so many Scottish seats or if Hillary hadn't ignored the warnings about the Midwest and campaigned there then PM Corbyn could have been meeting President Hillary.

In the popular vote the Tories lead over Labour in 2017 was almost identical to Hillary's lead over Trump in 2016 too.

If he loses this time then I'd happily bet against him not getting the nomination next time. Not only would he be 78 but he's got terrible approval ratings and Americans in general do not like retreads. This is not the 19th Century either.

Peter_the_Punter

HYUFD said:

The Texas poll is undoubtedly good news for Biden, though it is still very close there and most polls still have Trump ahead in the state.

Interesting though no mention in the thread header of today's Trafalgar group poll putting Trump 3% ahead in the key swing state of Florida

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301888665761861634?s=20

Trafalgar though, innit. Just about any other pollster and that would be a real worry for Biden. Personally I wouldn't disregard them entirely but I wouldn't bet the house on them either.

rcs1000

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Yes - how one can still be a floater I do not know.

Yet the turnout will barely be 50%.

US turnout is compared to all adults, rather than registered voters, so it understates it relatve to (say) the UK.

So, I'm going to go out on a limb, and reckon turnout will be up markedly this time around. I'm going to go for just under 60%.

LadyG

Philip_Thompson said:

LadyG said:

Nigelb said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

Has he ?

In polls, maybe, very modestly, in the betting markets, yes

“Polling explainer: is the race for the White House tightening?“

https://www.ft.com/content/b3297609-e63b-4161-8287-7ab1179d0c40

The betting markets don't mean he has momentum, that's like saying a Twitter poll is momentum. The betting markets are led by people like you who think this will help Trump . . . not voters telling pollsters that they are changing to back Trump.

I don’t think America will be influenced by a newt-painter temporarily stranded in peninsular Thessaly. I’m just saying I detect a mild change in the breeze.

Biden is still highly likely to win. Just not as certain as he was. This unrest does threaten the Democrats, as they are so closely allied to it.

For Biden to actually lose, however, there would need to be even greater violence, obviously aimed at white America. That’s possible. Equally possible is that some far right American hooligans will go on the rampage and gun down BLM supporters en masse.

It’s volatile. But volatility generally benefits the underdog, in elections. That’s Trump.

Theuniondivvie

Nigelb said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

Has he ?

He's certanly gained momentum with the people who want him to gain momentum, if that's not too elliptical.

Charles

Pro_Rata said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

My personal knowledge of COVID is as follows:

A old drinking friend of my father in law died after catching it in hospital in London.
Three people in my wife's manufacturing works have had mild cases, at different times, though none were direct contacts.of my wife at the relevant times.
The one team mate of mine who is struggling with the sort of long term health problems typical of COVID was actually afflicted by flu late last year.

One of the drivers for my usual cab company died, as did my father.

rcs1000

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1301969143911022598

I don't see how an Australia-New Zealand deal could possibly have such a big impact on UK GDP. It's a lot further away than the US, and it has a lot fewer people.

nichomar

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

Pretty much, yes - thank goodness. And long may it continue.

I don't know anyone who has had the thing, or at any rate had either a positive test or any form of symptomatic infection. A friend of mine has a cousin in Cardiff who was very ill with it indeed, but that's about it.

In no way am I belittling the impact of the virus but wondered if part of the reaction to it is that it is still remote and happening to someone else.

I can't speak for the situation in America, but I think that the threat in this country feels very real for a great many people, especially those who are older, medically vulnerable or worried well, regardless of whether the disease has been exacting a serious toll in their area or not.

I've been having a look at the ONS map of certified Covid deaths, and it is remarkable how lightly the vast majority of counting areas in market town and rural England and Wales have escaped from this pandemic. Death totals under five are routine; some of them have had no fatalities at all.

Despite this, however, I would strongly suspect that people in the more vulnerable and anxious parts of the population in little villages up in the Yorkshire Dales have been just as frightened as those living in Haringey.

I live my life looking for the As close to no risk option as I can when I go out, but I am amazed at the number of people, regardless of age seem to think this is all someone else’s problem. I was interested to see if proximity to the virus and it’s effects modified attitudes and behavior. Living in Spain can be like burying your head in the sand if you don’t plug into local news outlets and the levels of ignorance about the current situation is flabbergasting.

Nigelb

A remarkable thread on digital pregnancy tests.

https://twitter.com/Foone/status/1301707401024827392

LadyG

Charles said:

Pro_Rata said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Texas is getting the brunt of COVID19 at the minute. Must be pretty hard to buy into Trump's insanity if you know someone sick or dying and he's still making a game about it and laughing about masks.

How personal is the pandemic though, as I said yesterday I know of no one who has had it or know anyone who knows someone who’s had it. This despite living in one of the worst affected European countries, what is the UK experience like? Is it all happening to someone else not in your universe?

My personal knowledge of COVID is as follows:

A old drinking friend of my father in law died after catching it in hospital in London.
Three people in my wife's manufacturing works have had mild cases, at different times, though none were direct contacts.of my wife at the relevant times.
The one team mate of mine who is struggling with the sort of long term health problems typical of COVID was actually afflicted by flu late last year.

One of the drivers for my usual cab company died, as did my father.

RIP

But your father did not have Covid, did he?

Charles

stodge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.

Yes, there has to be no scintilla of room for Trump or his acolytes to cry "foul" or claim the election was "stolen" or "rigged".

What worries me more is the Transition - I suspect Trump and his odious entourage will behave like a group of spoilt brats once the election is over providing no leadership or help to the incoming Biden Administration. Pardons will be issued and the White House will be subject to a "scorched Earth" of destroyed documents before the Biden team move in.

I have to say the contrast with the handover from George W Bush to Obama will be marked.

Is the story that Clinton took all the light bulbs and door furniture true?

Sandpit

noneoftheabove said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Yes - how one can still be a floater I do not know.

There will be a few who dislike Trump but think the economy is better with a Republican president. If economy=stock market they might be right.

I think thats the biggest pool of floating voters, those weighing up their wallet vs a return to more civility.

There will also be Republican voters who may not like Trump himself, but do consider things like Supreme Court appointments.

IMO a lot depends on the economy between now and the election. If things look like getting back to normal after all the disruption, this will help the incumbent. Until this virus hit, the economy was going gangbusters, and the stock market is still going crazy.

Alistair

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Yes - how one can still be a floater I do not know.

Yet the turnout will barely be 50%.

US turnout is compared to all adults, rather than registered voters, so it understates it relatve to (say) the UK.

So, I'm going to go out on a limb, and reckon turnout will be up markedly this time around. I'm going to go for just under 60%.

I remember an incredibly wise and handsome poster on here predicting that there would be records turnout at the 2018 midterms.

And there was.

I also remember he was too scared to bet on the election because he was uncertain what the record turn out would mean.

This time out the wise, hansom, erudite poster doesn't have a clue what turnout will look like.

Scott_xP

Trump is really worried about the military vote...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301968873487564802

Alistair

Apropos of nothing I just want to emphasise what an absolute bell end Robby Mook is and what a disaster it is for the Dems he is in charge of their Congressional campaign.

Nigelb

https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1301918416232685568

Sandpit

Charles said:

stodge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.

Yes, there has to be no scintilla of room for Trump or his acolytes to cry "foul" or claim the election was "stolen" or "rigged".

What worries me more is the Transition - I suspect Trump and his odious entourage will behave like a group of spoilt brats once the election is over providing no leadership or help to the incoming Biden Administration. Pardons will be issued and the White House will be subject to a "scorched Earth" of destroyed documents before the Biden team move in.

I have to say the contrast with the handover from George W Bush to Obama will be marked.

Is the story that Clinton took all the light bulbs and door furniture true?

It was much worse than that.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2002-jun-12-na-clinton12-story.html

Pulpstar

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Yes but those Trump voters have not gone to Biden so could just have gone from vocal to silent Trump supporters

Judging by the North Carolina data they're going to be "silent" in November too.

BannedinnParis

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks like the Government is going with Abbott. Probably the right decision, another u-turn would have just looked like being tossed from pillar to post even more than they are currently.

Good. The government need to make appointments and stick by them.

A vocal group of left-wing activists will vociferously object to the appointment of anyone to the right of Corbyn to any government role, as was demonstrated a couple of years ago when someone who started a chain of free schools was hounded out of an education body for something he’d said on Twitter a decade previously.

That would be the charming fellow who said that he enjoyed a w**k over starving kids in africa?

That was actually a joke, which everyone with two braincells to rub together knows, and a rather funny one at that too. Frankie Boyle used to make them too. Frequently. And Stewart Lee.

In was in relation to Jane tweeting about comic relief @SongBird2407 that she'd ‘gone through about 5 boxes of kleenex’ whilst watching the distressing scenes.

Young responded with: “Me Too, I havn’t w***** so much in ages.” #ComicRelief

I defy anyone to say they haven't laughed at a similar risque joke in the past containing controversy or dark humour.

This sort of stuff is the staple of comedy club stand-ups.

Would you say that was an example of right wing comedy? I'm not sure it is myself. It's just making fun of lachrymose virtue signalling. Right wing comedy, for me, needs to be satirizing things like public ownership and waste in government and high levels of income tax.

BTW John Cleese was old farting away on R4 the other day saying he couldn't imagine a "woke joke". Seemed to think "woke" meant being overly nice and sensitive about everything rather than, whether one is nice or not, being aware of deep-rooted inequalities of race and gender.

Still, very funny in his time, Cleese.

I'd say it's just an example of comedy, although I accept it's not to everyone's taste.

Cleese is also right, here. I cannot conceive of a ‘woke joke’. Comedy is all about breaking taboos. Wokeness is all about the creation - and enforcement - of new taboos. Comedy and Wokeness are fundamentally at odds.

Woke is a word coined by African Americans to describe other African Americans becoming aware of the role of systemic racism in their life.

Woke doesn't mean "people you don't like".

The meaning of words evolves, regardless of who coined them and what for, and that one is definitely broader now.

Not as stupidly as gaslighting, which I have seen used several times recently to in effect mean someone disagrees with the speaker, but it has broadened. An appeal to the limited, initial meaning is just silly, like getting bent out of shape that decimate doesnt mean actual decimation anymore.

I think I finally got my head around gaslighting.

Dictionary definition is basically "manipulate, by psychological means, into doubting their own sanity".

But because lived experience is paramount, to The Few, then disagreeing with them means you're saying they don't really understand that experience. Even worse is using data. So, yeah, I can see why its being used in the coarser meaning of 'arguing against' by certain sections of the populace.

Nigelb

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Yes - how one can still be a floater I do not know.

Yet the turnout will barely be 50%.

US turnout is compared to all adults, rather than registered voters, so it understates it relatve to (say) the UK.

So, I'm going to go out on a limb, and reckon turnout will be up markedly this time around. I'm going to go for just under 60%.

I remember an incredibly wise and handsome poster on here predicting that there would be records turnout at the 2018 midterms.

And there was.

I also remember he was too scared to bet on the election because he was uncertain what the record turn out would mean.

This time out the wise, hansom, erudite poster doesn't have a clue what turnout will look like.

And what’s your opinion ?

stodge

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

The Texas poll is undoubtedly good news for Biden, though it is still very close there and most polls still have Trump ahead in the state.

Interesting though no mention in the thread header of today's Trafalgar group poll putting Trump 3% ahead in the key swing state of Florida

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301888665761861634?s=20

Trafalgar though, innit. Just about any other pollster and that would be a real worry for Biden. Personally I wouldn't disregard them entirely but I wouldn't bet the house on them either.

The information they provide for free on their sampling methodology is sparse and meaningless unlike Economist/YouGov and a few others.

Rasmussen hide their methodology behind a paywall - someone with deep pockets like @TSE has probably already purchased it and figured out if it's sensible or not.

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

noneoftheabove said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Yes - how one can still be a floater I do not know.

There will be a few who dislike Trump but think the economy is better with a Republican president. If economy=stock market they might be right.

I think thats the biggest pool of floating voters, those weighing up their wallet vs a return to more civility.

There will also be Republican voters who may not like Trump himself, but do consider things like Supreme Court appointments.

IMO a lot depends on the economy between now and the election. If things look like getting back to normal after all the disruption, this will help the incumbent. Until this virus hit, the economy was going gangbusters, and the stock market is still going crazy.

About that stock market....
https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1301904897831563264

kinabalu

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

LadyG said:

Alistair said:

21% undecided Independents.

That's the fly in the ointment for Biden in that poll.

I’m really not sure that Biden presser is as persuasive as you say

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1301936281564438528?s=21

When you see something so aggressively clipped you have to wonder what the wider context is...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1301931754673012738?s=19

He forgot to say quote at the start of the sentence like he did with the previous quote "bad thing trump campaign said" end quote sentence he did.

Oh no, what a gigantic fuck up, better just declare Trump president now.

I never said it was a gigantic fuck up. I’m just pointing out that Biden is a massively unimpressive candidate. Who would probably lose against ANYONE - except Trump, who manages to be significantly worse. For the reasons Smithson Jr eloquently lays out below

Just admit you fell for clipping and didn't bother looking for the full video and move on with your life.

Happy to admit that. The point remains: Biden stumbled embarrassingly in a short speech. He’s a doddery old twit. But he is the only way to avoid Trump 2.0. What a choice.

Let's be clear. I think Biden is an appalling candidate. Just the fucking pits.

But Trump is also a terrible candidate, and I mean terrible as in a bad candidate not as a person. Trump is making fuck up after fuck up that dwarfs Biden.

Well then we are entirely in agreement. Which is nice.

The only reason Trump has a chance is because of BLM/law and order. Everything else is toxic for him. If America was politically calm, Biden would win by 20 points. He still might.

But you can sense the twitchiness of suburban America. This radical urban violence is damaging the Dems

Trump polls terribly on BLM and Law and Order. Biden has a 10-20 point lead on stopping violence and keeping America safe.

Oh come on. What other reason is there for Trump to regain momentum, as he has?

It's remarkable how little movement there is in the polls. Biden has been at 50.1% +/- 0.9% for six months. While Trump dropped from 47% in the polls, to 42%, and is now back to around 43%.

See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Is it remarkable? Surely everyone has a view on Trump by now. What would he have to do to change someones mind?

Yes - how one can still be a floater I do not know.

Yet the turnout will barely be 50%.

Incredible if true.

Sunil_Prasannan

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.
lt
Just as before the last election I said the best thing would be a major Tory landslide, not just because I wanted the Tories to win but because it would release the grasp Corbyn had on the party. Look at Labour nine months later and Corbyn is history and there is very clear "new management". A narrow Corbyn defeat may have left RLB or Laura Pidcock to pick up the baton on a "one more heave" basis, but the hammering made that impossible.

Corbyn never won though unlike Trump in 2016.

If Trump loses he can also constitutionally run again in 2024 and who would bet against him failing to win the nomination unless he is absolutely trounced in November. In 1888 President Cleveland lost his re election battle but ran again in 1892 and won to complete a second term.

Corbyn came within a whisker of winning in 2017 and Trump only won by a whisker in 2016. Both results could have very easily gone the other way, if the Tories hadn't gained so many Scottish seats or if Hillary hadn't ignored the warnings about the Midwest and campaigned there then PM Corbyn could have been meeting President Hillary.

In the popular vote the Tories lead over Labour in 2017 was almost identical to Hillary's lead over Trump in 2016 too.

If he loses this time then I'd happily bet against him not getting the nomination next time. Not only would he be 78 but he's got terrible approval ratings and Americans in general do not like retreads. This is not the 19th Century either.

Hang on! The Tories won the popular vote in 2017, just like Hillary won the popular vote in 2016.

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.
lt
Just as before the last election I said the best thing would be a major Tory landslide, not just because I wanted the Tories to win but because it would release the grasp Corbyn had on the party. Look at Labour nine months later and Corbyn is history and there is very clear "new management". A narrow Corbyn defeat may have left RLB or Laura Pidcock to pick up the baton on a "one more heave" basis, but the hammering made that impossible.

Corbyn never won though unlike Trump in 2016.

If Trump loses he can also constitutionally run again in 2024 and who would bet against him failing to win the nomination unless he is absolutely trounced in November. In 1888 President Cleveland lost his re election battle but ran again in 1892 and won to complete a second term.

Corbyn came within a whisker of winning in 2017 and Trump only won by a whisker in 2016. Both results could have very easily gone the other way, if the Tories hadn't gained so many Scottish seats or if Hillary hadn't ignored the warnings about the Midwest and campaigned there then PM Corbyn could have been meeting President Hillary.

In the popular vote the Tories lead over Labour in 2017 was almost identical to Hillary's lead over Trump in 2016 too.

If he loses this time then I'd happily bet against him not getting the nomination next time. Not only would he be 78 but he's got terrible approval ratings and Americans in general do not like retreads. This is not the 19th Century either.

In 2017 the Tories won 55 seats more than Labour, in 2016 Trump won 77 more EC votes than Hillary, that is more than just a whisker.

Biden is 78 this year and the Dems nominee, Nixon who Trump resembles also won again after defeat in 1960.

If Trump loses and does not run the 2024 GOP nominee will likely be Pence or Cruz, there is not going to be any swing back to a moderate Republican nominee after McCain in 2008 and Romney 2012 were the nominees and lost for the foreseeable future.

Starmer only came after 3 elections where the leftwing Labour candidate won the leadership after Ed Miliband beat David Miliband, Corbyn beat Burnham and Cooper and then Owen Smith.

LadyG

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1301918416232685568

That’s really fucking bad. Totally out of control.

rottenborough

Charles said:

Gallowgate said:

I see someone still has confidence in central London. MSD is planning to build a £1bn research hub opposite King's Cross station.

They’ve been the the area for a while.

But the Crick is a serious draw

Why on earth to we need to build new research institutions in central London?

Alistair

Charles said:

stodge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The best thing for America is a Biden blowout that sees him sweep Texas, Florida, Arizona and leaves Trump under 200 EC votes. That way the courts won't need to settle this and hopefully the sane Republicans left in the party can take back over from the nutters who currently run it.

Yes, there has to be no scintilla of room for Trump or his acolytes to cry "foul" or claim the election was "stolen" or "rigged".

What worries me more is the Transition - I suspect Trump and his odious entourage will behave like a group of spoilt brats once the election is over providing no leadership or help to the incoming Biden Administration. Pardons will be issued and the White House will be subject to a "scorched Earth" of destroyed documents before the Biden team move in.

I have to say the contrast with the handover from George W Bush to Obama will be marked.

Is the story that Clinton took all the light bulbs and door furniture true?

And the W keys from the computer keyboard.

It wasn't true. The head of George W Bush's transition teams said the hand over was highly professional.

Annoyingly I can't find the interview just now.

But there is a quote from a report
"there is no record of damage that may have been deliberately caused by the employees of the Clinton administration."

Sunil_Prasannan

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1301918416232685568

I hope the migrants coming over from France self-isolate when they reach the UK