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Good summary. Irritating bloke but also interesting and unusual. And as a snooker player incomparable.state_go_away said:
I have some sympathy with Selby's view -Ronnie can be an arse sometimes but in this case I believe he was trying (in that smash it all over the place frame) to get it over with to purify his snooker for the last 3 frames. In essence he wasn't being disrespectful in this case he was bizarrely trying to find a way to win in only the way Ronnie can think. What happened in the last 3 frames though no other snooker player could ever have done . Ronnie is the ultimate contrarian , you even see it with his insistence about talking about getting a cue action from Amazon . He has to be different and he is very good at being different - occasionally he looks a prat , more often though he looks a geniusMexicanpete said:0 -
Mind the spaghetti!Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Well, put it this way, I feel very low in myself. I can't see much in the future, and I feel that any second something terrible is going to happen to me."CorrectHorseBattery said:How you all going this evening?
1 -
More on T cell immune response.
Encouraging both for long term immunity, and (less quantifiable) for the possibility of a proportion of the population having some sort of useful immune memory from previous coronavirus infection.
Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420310084
SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We here systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in unexposed individuals, exposed family members, and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative exposed family members and convalescent individuals with a history of asymptomatic and mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust, broad and highly functional memory T cell responses, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19.0 -
Redfield Wilton:
"Conservative 43% (–)
Labour 36% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 9% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 4% (–)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 3% (–)"
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/0 -
No you're not right. If you think about how the algorithm worked and then about how a reasonable and responsible teacher would predict individual grades for each individual child it is obvious that the first will in aggregate give lower grades. I am going to sleep now but we can go through it in detail next time if you like.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.0 -
Just How Far Will Trump Go?
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/08/trumps-weaponization-usps-and-census/615235/
... Trump is systematically enlisting agencies, including the Postal Service, Census Bureau, Department of Justice, and Department of Homeland Security, that traditionally have been considered at least somewhat insulated from political machinations to reward his allies and punish those he considers his enemies. He is razing barriers between his personal and political interests and the core operations of the federal government to an extent that no president has previously attempted, a wide range of public-administration experts have told me.
“There’s always been temptation … but no president in modern times has taken action so explicitly and obviously—or transparently—to influence and actually direct these agencies to favor the party in power,” Paul Light, a public-service professor at New York University, told me. “None. None.”...0 -
She issues a death threat in that letter. Why is that any more acceptable if the target is the odious Nigel Farage than, say, the equally odious Owen Jones, or a Black Lives Matters activist?CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!0 -
"Who on earth could that be?"Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Well, put it this way, I feel very low in myself. I can't see much in the future, and I feel that any second something terrible is going to happen to me."CorrectHorseBattery said:How you all going this evening?
1 -
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.0 -
What this means is we need to pay less attention to the total number of cases and more attention to whether people have a serious case of the illness.rcs1000 said:
Viral loads are lower, because people are observing social distancing.another_richard said:Some data which suggests the overwhelming number of people now being infected have mild or zero symptoms.
In July, Leicester saw 1,336 cases but only seven people were admitted to hospital with Covid-19.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53772459
and
We're catching 80% of cases, not 8% (made up numbers) of cases.0 -
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.0 -
Sorry, but that's pure spin.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
We've discovered that the Ofqual equation doesn't work very well. Ofqual tried the model on the 2019 exams, and they got about 40 % error rate between actual exam results and the output of their model.
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1293841154782441474
People who have poked around in the Ofqual black box think they've worked out why it sometimes gives insane outputs (the C --> U downgrades, for example).
https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/
Oh, and the Royal Statistical Society offered to help earlier on but couldn't come to an agreement about NDAs with the government.
https://twitter.com/RoyalStatSoc/status/1294308350285447177
Oh, and lots of young people have had their plans for the autumn thrown up in the air, because some have A Level results that have been held down, whereas other have results that have been allowed to inflate.
But no fiasco here. Oh no.0 -
In this case lower is more accurate.kinabalu said:
No you're not right. If you think about how the algorithm worked and then about how a reasonable and responsible teacher would predict individual grades for each individual child it is obvious that the first will in aggregate give lower grades. I am going to sleep now but we can go through it in detail next time if you like.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
Do you want accurate grades or higher grades ?0 -
What evidence do you have for the notion that the ofqual results are more accurate?another_richard said:
In this case lower is more accurate.kinabalu said:
No you're not right. If you think about how the algorithm worked and then about how a reasonable and responsible teacher would predict individual grades for each individual child it is obvious that the first will in aggregate give lower grades. I am going to sleep now but we can go through it in detail next time if you like.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
Do you want accurate grades or higher grades ?0 -
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.0 -
That would be unfair to those whose grades weren't inflated by their teachers. Probably a larger number than those unfairly marked down in the proposed unfair system.Benpointer said:What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?
0 -
Yes, there is a significant award in the exam for the ability to contextualise social and cultural themes based on the prescribed books and films. I could not tell you how many times I have watched Утомлённые солнцем with tutees.ydoethur said:
One of the changes that was definitely noticeable in the C&GMalmesbury said:
No one should ever get less than an A* in their first language.Scott_xP said:
In fact, exams in English can be abolished. Think of the savings.....shamblesreforms was that they did tighten up noticeably on MFL A-levels.
Although @Dura_Ace would know more than me, my understanding is they do now include substantial elements of literature, study and cultural knowledge that just wasn't there before. So they're not a gimme for native speakers as they once were.
Of course, that makes them bloody near impossible for the notoriously monoglot English...
There is also a translation into English which needs a very good command of English in order to reflect nuance and meaning.
Very few native Russian speakers would get A* in Russian A-level straight off the street due to those reasons. The number would be slightly, but not much, higher for native French speakers.
I don't know about other languages as I only teach those two at A-level.0 -
She's not issued a death threat, just voiced what his actions make her feel like doing.Richard_Nabavi said:
She issues a death threat in that letter. Why is that any more acceptable if the target is the odious Nigel Farage than, say, the equally odious Owen Jones, or a Black Lives Matters activist?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1294392151833444364
Note it is prior the results stuff, I don't see this making any difference.
Basically the Tories are about 8 points ahead and nothing seems to change that.0 -
And you can tell which ones those were... how exactly?Richard_Nabavi said:
That would be unfair to those whose grades weren't inflated by their teachers. Probably a larger number than those unfairly marked down in the proposed unfair system.Benpointer said:What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?
0 -
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.2 -
I didn't think OfQual could actually come up with a worse approach than SQA yet somehow they have.Stuartinromford said:
Sorry, but that's pure spin.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
We've discovered that the Ofqual equation doesn't work very well. Ofqual tried the model on the 2019 exams, and they got about 40 % error rate between actual exam results and the output of their model.
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1293841154782441474
People who have poked around in the Ofqual black box think they've worked out why it sometimes gives insane outputs (the C --> U downgrades, for example).
https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/
Oh, and the Royal Statistical Society offered to help earlier on but couldn't come to an agreement about NDAs with the government.
https://twitter.com/RoyalStatSoc/status/1294308350285447177
Oh, and lots of young people have had their plans for the autumn thrown up in the air, because some have A Level results that have been held down, whereas other have results that have been allowed to inflate.
But no fiasco here. Oh no.1 -
The other thing is that it could have turned nasty if from the outset the decision rested with the teachers. I can imagine some parents kicking off if their kid didn’t get what they thought they deserved.another_richard said:
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.1 -
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.0 -
Lol - maybe Labour should ask for their polling results to be regraded?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1294392151833444364
Note it is prior the results stuff, I don't see this making any difference.
Basically the Tories are about 8 points ahead and nothing seems to change that.
1 -
Puts the following years at a disadvantage or creates an asterisk year where employers disregard results for that cohort completely. The government effed it up by cancelling exams and then teachers tried to game the system, encouraged by heads no doubt, so they could move up the league tables.Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.3 -
You'd be hard pushed to claim that France and Spain are doing better on Covid management than the UK right now.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.0 -
I'm pretty sure that if you tweeted that you wanted to bash the head in of, say, Diane Abbott, you'd be in trouble. What's the difference?Benpointer said:
She's not issued a death threat, just voiced what his actions make her feel like doing.Richard_Nabavi said:
She issues a death threat in that letter. Why is that any more acceptable if the target is the odious Nigel Farage than, say, the equally odious Owen Jones, or a Black Lives Matters activist?CorrectHorseBattery said:2 -
You can't. That doesn't make one arbitrary set of grades, which are known to be systematically wrong on average, better than another arbitrary set of grades which are statistically reasonable, on average.Benpointer said:
And you can tell which ones those were... how exactly?Richard_Nabavi said:
That would be unfair to those whose grades weren't inflated by their teachers. Probably a larger number than those unfairly marked down in the proposed unfair system.Benpointer said:What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?
There's no good answer here. To get accurate and consistent exam results you need to, you know, hold exams.4 -
Next year, assuming exams take place, there won't be any centre assessment grades.another_richard said:
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.
When you have individual submitted exams to compare and the overall results need to be downgraded for whatever reason, that can be done fairly on the basis of the individual's actual exam paper. Without that, it's a lottery.
We just need to accept that 2020 is an unusual year.0 -
Not true, the GDP numbers are all comparable in a like for like and the UK is having a better rebound, I think we will recover more GDP faster than most of the rest of Europe. Spain, Italy and France are going to have very slow recoveries.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.0 -
Well, I hope you're right re our GDP, let's see how it looks by the end of the year shall we.MaxPB said:
Not true, the GDP numbers are all comparable in a like for like and the UK is having a better rebound, I think we will recover more GDP faster than most of the rest of Europe. Spain, Italy and France are going to have very slow recoveries.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.1 -
Why do you believe we will recover more quickly? We've also got to recover more than other countries.MaxPB said:
Not true, the GDP numbers are all comparable in a like for like and the UK is having a better rebound, I think we will recover more GDP faster than most of the rest of Europe. Spain, Italy and France are going to have very slow recoveries.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.0 -
Sorry Ben but I really don't see that.Benpointer said:
Next year, assuming exams take place, there won't be any centre assessment grades.another_richard said:
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.
When you have individual submitted exams to compare and the overall results need to be downgraded for whatever reason, that can be done fairly on the basis of the individual's actual exam paper. Without that, it's a lottery.
We just need to accept that 2020 is an unusual year.
There will be too many people with an interest in maintaining higher grades.
In the case of the 2021 pupils with justification.0 -
It will be interesting to see how many of the 'unfair' grades lead to exams being taken in the autumn.Richard_Nabavi said:
You can't. That doesn't make one arbitrary set of grades, which are known to be systematically wrong on average, better than another arbitrary set of grades which are statistically reasonable, on average.Benpointer said:
And you can tell which ones those were... how exactly?Richard_Nabavi said:
That would be unfair to those whose grades weren't inflated by their teachers. Probably a larger number than those unfairly marked down in the proposed unfair system.Benpointer said:What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?
There's no good answer here. To get accurate and consistent exam results you need to, you know, hold exams.0 -
The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.0 -
It's been a total fuck-up. This is really not a good look:another_richard said:
Sorry Ben but I really don't see that.Benpointer said:
Next year, assuming exams take place, there won't be any centre assessment grades.another_richard said:
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.
When you have individual submitted exams to compare and the overall results need to be downgraded for whatever reason, that can be done fairly on the basis of the individual's actual exam paper. Without that, it's a lottery.
We just need to accept that 2020 is an unusual year.
There will be too many people with an interest in maintaining higher grades.
In the case of the 2021 pupils with justification.
1 -
Agreed. The football analogy is a good one - Man U would have won the simulated Premiership on the basis of 'past performance'.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.0 -
I hope so, though the ongoing desolation of central London disturbs me.MaxPB said:
Not true, the GDP numbers are all comparable in a like for like and the UK is having a better rebound, I think we will recover more GDP faster than most of the rest of Europe. Spain, Italy and France are going to have very slow recoveries.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.
What Britain will avoid is the annihilation of its tourist industry, which is less important anyway.
France is going to take a powerful hit, Spain is just shafted. I pray Greece swerves the worst: they’ve already been through a Crash.0 -
This time next year PB tories will be blaming our poor recovery on Brexit, rather than government mismanagement.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Why do you believe we will recover more quickly? We've also got to recover more than other countries.MaxPB said:
Not true, the GDP numbers are all comparable in a like for like and the UK is having a better rebound, I think we will recover more GDP faster than most of the rest of Europe. Spain, Italy and France are going to have very slow recoveries.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise. 0 -
Polling algorithm?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1294392151833444364
Note it is prior the results stuff, I don't see this making any difference.
Basically the Tories are about 8 points ahead and nothing seems to change that.0 -
It’s always been the case that threats of violence against people to the right of the threat maker, or by Brexit Blockers are seen as throwaway comments (Osborne cutting up May and putting her in a fridge) whilst the opposite are taken literally (Farage saying he’d pick up a rifle and go back into battle)Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm pretty sure that if you tweeted that you wanted to bash the head in of, say, Diane Abbott, you'd be in trouble. What's the difference?Benpointer said:
She's not issued a death threat, just voiced what his actions make her feel like doing.Richard_Nabavi said:
She issues a death threat in that letter. Why is that any more acceptable if the target is the odious Nigel Farage than, say, the equally odious Owen Jones, or a Black Lives Matters activist?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
I think the independents and the comps have gone up by 10% though, from 20 to 22 and 43 to 47?Benpointer said:
It's been a total fuck-up. This is really not a good look:another_richard said:
Sorry Ben but I really don't see that.Benpointer said:
Next year, assuming exams take place, there won't be any centre assessment grades.another_richard said:
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.
When you have individual submitted exams to compare and the overall results need to be downgraded for whatever reason, that can be done fairly on the basis of the individual's actual exam paper. Without that, it's a lottery.
We just need to accept that 2020 is an unusual year.
There will be too many people with an interest in maintaining higher grades.
In the case of the 2021 pupils with justification.0 -
It really hasn't.Benpointer said:
It's been a total fuck-up. This is really not a good look:another_richard said:
Sorry Ben but I really don't see that.Benpointer said:
Next year, assuming exams take place, there won't be any centre assessment grades.another_richard said:
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.
When you have individual submitted exams to compare and the overall results need to be downgraded for whatever reason, that can be done fairly on the basis of the individual's actual exam paper. Without that, it's a lottery.
We just need to accept that 2020 is an unusual year.
There will be too many people with an interest in maintaining higher grades.
In the case of the 2021 pupils with justification.
Grades are at a record high and the vast majority of pupils will be happy.
Or at least they should be - if not then big, bad world is going to teach them some hard lessons.
The uni courses will be filled and life will roll on.
Are there individual problems ? Certainly but there is every year and there's scope for appeals and exams to be actually taken.
Its not perfect but we're in a global pandemic and lots of people are losing out - I know people who have lost their jobs or lost serious amounts of money or have health issues or have lost members of their family.
If anyone wants 100% perfection then they're in the wrong time, in the wrong country and in the wrong world.0 -
"One rule for the rich and another for everyone else" - will be further reinforced by the exams fiasco, if nothing else.
I think we will see more examples over this over the next few years.0 -
When a system is stressed you see what it attempts to preserve above all else. And that is when you see what is important to the system.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.
The thing the education system seems to have decided to preserve is exam results.
In the face of, as you say, there being no exams. Quite incredible.0 -
Doesn't that show comprehensives doing better than grammar schools ?Benpointer said:
It's been a total fuck-up. This is really not a good look:another_richard said:
Sorry Ben but I really don't see that.Benpointer said:
Next year, assuming exams take place, there won't be any centre assessment grades.another_richard said:
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.
When you have individual submitted exams to compare and the overall results need to be downgraded for whatever reason, that can be done fairly on the basis of the individual's actual exam paper. Without that, it's a lottery.
We just need to accept that 2020 is an unusual year.
There will be too many people with an interest in maintaining higher grades.
In the case of the 2021 pupils with justification.
That normally sees the PB lefties get the pom-poms out.1 -
If there's doubt on what someone's grade should be then I think its reasonable to give the benefit of the doubt to the student.Richard_Nabavi said:
You can't. That doesn't make one arbitrary set of grades, which are known to be systematically wrong on average, better than another arbitrary set of grades which are statistically reasonable, on average.Benpointer said:
And you can tell which ones those were... how exactly?Richard_Nabavi said:
That would be unfair to those whose grades weren't inflated by their teachers. Probably a larger number than those unfairly marked down in the proposed unfair system.Benpointer said:What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?
There's no good answer here. To get accurate and consistent exam results you need to, you know, hold exams.
If there is a clear and unambiguous reason to downgrade then fair enough, but if there is any reasonable doubt at all then the student should get the benefit of the doubt.
If that means more A's than "average" so be it. If some guilty people go free then we don't incarcerate random innocent people in order to ensure that our average incarceration rate is maintained.2 -
It'd have been City on xGoals.Benpointer said:
Agreed. The football analogy is a good one - Man U would have won the simulated Premiership on the basis of 'past performance'.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.1 -
I think that chart should say percentage points increase. As you say, it’s an important distinction.isam said:
I think the independents and the comps have gone up by 10% though, from 20 to 22 and 43 to 47?Benpointer said:
It's been a total fuck-up. This is really not a good look:another_richard said:
Sorry Ben but I really don't see that.Benpointer said:
Next year, assuming exams take place, there won't be any centre assessment grades.another_richard said:
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.
When you have individual submitted exams to compare and the overall results need to be downgraded for whatever reason, that can be done fairly on the basis of the individual's actual exam paper. Without that, it's a lottery.
We just need to accept that 2020 is an unusual year.
There will be too many people with an interest in maintaining higher grades.
In the case of the 2021 pupils with justification.0 -
HIs top two temporary appointees at DHS following Nielson's resignation have been deemed to have been promoted illegally and are now under review to see whether they have taken any illegal actions during their tenure in these positions given that they had no authority to hold them ...Nigelb said:Just How Far Will Trump Go?
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/08/trumps-weaponization-usps-and-census/615235/
... Trump is systematically enlisting agencies, including the Postal Service, Census Bureau, Department of Justice, and Department of Homeland Security, that traditionally have been considered at least somewhat insulated from political machinations to reward his allies and punish those he considers his enemies. He is razing barriers between his personal and political interests and the core operations of the federal government to an extent that no president has previously attempted, a wide range of public-administration experts have told me.
“There’s always been temptation … but no president in modern times has taken action so explicitly and obviously—or transparently—to influence and actually direct these agencies to favor the party in power,” Paul Light, a public-service professor at New York University, told me. “None. None.”...0 -
See https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/14/top-dhs-officials-wolf-cuccinelli-are-not-legally-eligible-serve-their-current-roles-congressional-watchdog-agency-finds/TimT said:
HIs top two temporary appointees at DHS following Nielson's resignation have been deemed to have been promoted illegally and are now under review to see whether they have taken any illegal actions during their tenure in these positions given that they had no authority to hold them ...Nigelb said:Just How Far Will Trump Go?
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/08/trumps-weaponization-usps-and-census/615235/
... Trump is systematically enlisting agencies, including the Postal Service, Census Bureau, Department of Justice, and Department of Homeland Security, that traditionally have been considered at least somewhat insulated from political machinations to reward his allies and punish those he considers his enemies. He is razing barriers between his personal and political interests and the core operations of the federal government to an extent that no president has previously attempted, a wide range of public-administration experts have told me.
“There’s always been temptation … but no president in modern times has taken action so explicitly and obviously—or transparently—to influence and actually direct these agencies to favor the party in power,” Paul Light, a public-service professor at New York University, told me. “None. None.”...0 -
I've not really followed the story closely enough to judge, but I would wonder if the same people held that conclusion prior to events 'conspiring to reveal' it as a conclusion, which would be a happy coincidence.Alistair said:0 -
But the UK tourist industry isn't monolithic.LadyG said:
I hope so, though the ongoing desolation of central London disturbs me.MaxPB said:
Not true, the GDP numbers are all comparable in a like for like and the UK is having a better rebound, I think we will recover more GDP faster than most of the rest of Europe. Spain, Italy and France are going to have very slow recoveries.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.
What Britain will avoid is the annihilation of its tourist industry, which is less important anyway.
France is going to take a powerful hit, Spain is just shafted. I pray Greece swerves the worst: they’ve already been through a Crash.
There are the places which attract foreign tourists - London, Edinburgh, Oxford, Cambridge, Canterbury, York etc - and these might struggle.
Whereas the seaside / countryside areas rely on UK tourists and so should do reasonably well.1 -
The key to a strong recovery is to contain the virus. The safer people feel, the more they will get back to normal.MaxPB said:
Not true, the GDP numbers are all comparable in a like for like and the UK is having a better rebound, I think we will recover more GDP faster than most of the rest of Europe. Spain, Italy and France are going to have very slow recoveries.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.
Economically everything else is pretty much secondary.0 -
@Kinabalu was cockahoop at the eventual Scottish bonus for some students.tlg86 said:
I think that chart should say percentage points increase. As you say, it’s an important distinction.isam said:
I think the independents and the comps have gone up by 10% though, from 20 to 22 and 43 to 47?Benpointer said:
It's been a total fuck-up. This is really not a good look:another_richard said:
Sorry Ben but I really don't see that.Benpointer said:
Next year, assuming exams take place, there won't be any centre assessment grades.another_richard said:
You think it would be 'back to normal' next year ?Benpointer said:
What precisely would have been the harm in just allowing the teacher recommended grades through and back to normal exams next year?another_richard said:
But for what benefit ?Benpointer said:
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
The uni courses will still be filled and we get a huge dollop of grade inflation baked into the system which just means that the grades required in future years rise in line.
And everyone ends up thinking they're more talented than they are and/or becomes more self-entitled.
While big, bad world gets harder by the year.
It would be more honest to stop school exams, use the time saved for something more productive, give everyone A grades if they turn up for two years and let universities set their own entrance criteria.
I don't see it.
Over-predicting grades would have been shown to have worked so there would likely be even more over-predicting next year.
So then what happens when the 2021 exam results are seen to be both way lower than the predicted grades and way lower than the 2020 awarded grades ?
Everyone then demands that higher grades are awarded.
And why not - its the pupils who will be taking exams in 2021 who will have their education disrupted far more than those of this year.
So why should they lose out ? They shouldn't.
If there should be 40% A grades in 2020, then 40% A grades should become the standard for every year from now onwards.
When you have individual submitted exams to compare and the overall results need to be downgraded for whatever reason, that can be done fairly on the basis of the individual's actual exam paper. Without that, it's a lottery.
We just need to accept that 2020 is an unusual year.
There will be too many people with an interest in maintaining higher grades.
In the case of the 2021 pupils with justification.0 -
We're all at the lower end of that particular table I'd guess. I wonder how their leaders are doing right now - I'm generally wary of a focus on the personalities (and even competence) of political leaders being as impactful as we like to think, of a uniqueness (good and bad) to something that hits everybody, as the government leaders of various states can be very different and yet end up with similarly bad outcomes.humbugger said:
You'd be hard pushed to claim that France and Spain are doing better on Covid management than the UK right now.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.0 -
I had long arguments with Alistair Meeks because he thought Farage was threatening violence, and I thought he was obviously making an analogy, whilst I thought it was poor form from Osborne, and he didn’t
0 -
As each game was the equivalent of an exam there was enough to be marked on.Benpointer said:
Agreed. The football analogy is a good one - Man U would have won the simulated Premiership on the basis of 'past performance'.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.
The equivalent would have been every team claiming they would have won all their remaining games based on their own predictions.0 -
Except that Gavin Williamson never made that comment.CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
Even if we don't consider it as a death threat, it's odious. Right wing snowflakes can often incorrectly be hypersensitive to someone being mean about them and claiming it would not happen to their lefty counterparts, but if that comment were not about Farage I don't think it unreasonable to think more people would be upset, when we should be equally as upset (or sanguin) if it were about the Dalai Lama.Benpointer said:
She's not issued a death threat, just voiced what his actions make her feel like doing.Richard_Nabavi said:
She issues a death threat in that letter. Why is that any more acceptable if the target is the odious Nigel Farage than, say, the equally odious Owen Jones, or a Black Lives Matters activist?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
If that was the aim of the system, its not very good at it in general! The UK's system is far too vague to be a true ranking, with everyone clustered together in letters.kle4 said:
I've not really followed the story closely enough to judge, but I would wonder if the same people held that conclusion prior to events 'conspiring to reveal' it as a conclusion, which would be a happy coincidence.Alistair said:
I went to High School in Australia, though I didn't do the VCEs while there the system they had and I believe have is incredibly ruthless in comparison to ours. At the time I was there every student who sat the VCEs would get ranked in an overall percentile grading called ENTER. That grading was a percentile grading and went from 30.00 (pass mark, did better than the 30% of the population that failed, below that is undisclosed) to 99.95 (top possible percentile rank, better than 99.95% of people). The percentile ranking goes up in increments of 0.05 with approximately 20 pupils in each 0.05 ranking.
So eg if a student got a percentile ranking of 91.45 then they did better than 91.45% of all other pupils that year and worse than 8.5% of all pupils.
That system is entirely ruthless and literally a method of ranking people. Not possible to scrape into a higher grade or narrowly miss, since each grade is a step of 0.05 percentile to the next step. At the time too 30 percent were guaranteed to fail, though that to be fair includes everyone who dropped out without sitting the exams.0 -
That he is unusual in personality is the reason even people who don't care about snooker, like me, know about him. Sports need big personalities like that, even if that includes arseholes.kinabalu said:
Good summary. Irritating bloke but also interesting and unusual. And as a snooker player incomparable.state_go_away said:
I have some sympathy with Selby's view -Ronnie can be an arse sometimes but in this case I believe he was trying (in that smash it all over the place frame) to get it over with to purify his snooker for the last 3 frames. In essence he wasn't being disrespectful in this case he was bizarrely trying to find a way to win in only the way Ronnie can think. What happened in the last 3 frames though no other snooker player could ever have done . Ronnie is the ultimate contrarian , you even see it with his insistence about talking about getting a cue action from Amazon . He has to be different and he is very good at being different - occasionally he looks a prat , more often though he looks a geniusMexicanpete said:0 -
I know which one the pupils and parents, and therefore most politicians, would want.another_richard said:
In this case lower is more accurate.kinabalu said:
No you're not right. If you think about how the algorithm worked and then about how a reasonable and responsible teacher would predict individual grades for each individual child it is obvious that the first will in aggregate give lower grades. I am going to sleep now but we can go through it in detail next time if you like.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
Do you want accurate grades or higher grades ?0 -
That's a pretty ruthless system.Philip_Thompson said:
If that was the aim of the system, its not very good at it in general! The UK's system is far too vague to be a true ranking, with everyone clustered together in letters.kle4 said:
I've not really followed the story closely enough to judge, but I would wonder if the same people held that conclusion prior to events 'conspiring to reveal' it as a conclusion, which would be a happy coincidence.Alistair said:
I went to High School in Australia, though I didn't do the VCEs while there the system they had and I believe have is incredibly ruthless in comparison to ours. At the time I was there every student who sat the VCEs would get ranked in an overall percentile grading called ENTER. That grading was a percentile grading and went from 30.00 (pass mark, did better than the 30% of the population that failed, below that is undisclosed) to 99.95 (top possible percentile rank, better than 99.95% of people). The percentile ranking goes up in increments of 0.05 with approximately 20 pupils in each 0.05 ranking.
So eg if a student got a percentile ranking of 91.45 then they did better than 91.45% of all other pupils that year and worse than 8.5% of all pupils.
That system is entirely ruthless and literally a method of ranking people. Not possible to scrape into a higher grade or narrowly miss, since each grade is a step of 0.05 percentile to the next step. At the time too 30 percent were guaranteed to fail, though that to be fair includes everyone who dropped out without sitting the exams.0 -
Indeed.kle4 said:
I know which one the pupils and parents, and therefore most politicians, would want.another_richard said:
In this case lower is more accurate.kinabalu said:
No you're not right. If you think about how the algorithm worked and then about how a reasonable and responsible teacher would predict individual grades for each individual child it is obvious that the first will in aggregate give lower grades. I am going to sleep now but we can go through it in detail next time if you like.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
Do you want accurate grades or higher grades ?
People want higher grades not honest grades.
But the problem is if everyone gets higher grades then they all become worthless grades.0 -
Some parts of upstate are pretty Trumpy, it is true (the official definition of Appalachia includes New York's "Southern Tier", the row of counties that abut Pennsylvania's northern border). Without NYC and its environs, the state is a mixture of Mid-West-style farmland and rustbelt, but with enough other big(ish) cities like Buffalo and Rochester, and college towns like Ithaca and Syracuse, that it would be a battleground state. With NYC and its suburbs and exurbs though, it'd take Lukashenkovite levels of ballot rigging for the state to go red.Pulpstar said:
Well... Upstate should vote GOP I thinkSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Got to love Honest Abe lurking in the background - reckon that's Trumpsky's response to the Lincoln Project.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1294364456370286596
Please, please spend a ton of your advertising money in NY, Donald.
Plus he (Trumpsky, not Lincoln) wants Biden to put money into NY State. But NOT much chance of that happening, methinks.0 -
But if others get higher than they should, only to be balanced off by some getting worse than they should have, then that is worse than worthless.another_richard said:
Indeed.kle4 said:
I know which one the pupils and parents, and therefore most politicians, would want.another_richard said:
In this case lower is more accurate.kinabalu said:
No you're not right. If you think about how the algorithm worked and then about how a reasonable and responsible teacher would predict individual grades for each individual child it is obvious that the first will in aggregate give lower grades. I am going to sleep now but we can go through it in detail next time if you like.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
Do you want accurate grades or higher grades ?
People want higher grades not honest grades.
But the problem is if everyone gets higher grades then they all become worthless grades.
If there is doubt, the benefit of the doubt should go with the student.0 -
Should everyone get higher than they should just to stop one person getting worse than they should ?Philip_Thompson said:
But if others get higher than they should, only to be balanced off by some getting worse than they should have, then that is worse than worthless.another_richard said:
Indeed.kle4 said:
I know which one the pupils and parents, and therefore most politicians, would want.another_richard said:
In this case lower is more accurate.kinabalu said:
No you're not right. If you think about how the algorithm worked and then about how a reasonable and responsible teacher would predict individual grades for each individual child it is obvious that the first will in aggregate give lower grades. I am going to sleep now but we can go through it in detail next time if you like.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
Do you want accurate grades or higher grades ?
People want higher grades not honest grades.
But the problem is if everyone gets higher grades then they all become worthless grades.
If there is doubt, the benefit of the doubt should go with the student.
Its better to try to give everyone what they should get and put in place mechanisms to rectify for those who get less than they should.0 -
The equivalent is grading this season on predictions moderated by past 3 years performance.another_richard said:
As each game was the equivalent of an exam there was enough to be marked on.Benpointer said:
Agreed. The football analogy is a good one - Man U would have won the simulated Premiership on the basis of 'past performance'.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.
The equivalent would have been every team claiming they would have won all their remaining games based on their own predictions.
Result. City champions.
Sheff Utd, Newcastle and Norwich relegated.
1 out of 4.1 -
Innocent until proven guilty. If there is no doubt then drop the grade, but if there is then yes give the higher one.another_richard said:
Should everyone get higher than they should just to stop one person getting worse than they should ?Philip_Thompson said:
But if others get higher than they should, only to be balanced off by some getting worse than they should have, then that is worse than worthless.another_richard said:
Indeed.kle4 said:
I know which one the pupils and parents, and therefore most politicians, would want.another_richard said:
In this case lower is more accurate.kinabalu said:
No you're not right. If you think about how the algorithm worked and then about how a reasonable and responsible teacher would predict individual grades for each individual child it is obvious that the first will in aggregate give lower grades. I am going to sleep now but we can go through it in detail next time if you like.another_richard said:
I'm right though aren't I.kinabalu said:
You show no insight into this topic.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
Do you want accurate grades or higher grades ?
People want higher grades not honest grades.
But the problem is if everyone gets higher grades then they all become worthless grades.
If there is doubt, the benefit of the doubt should go with the student.
Its better to try to give everyone what they should get and put in place mechanisms to rectify for those who get less than they should.0 -
Not when the games / exams have already happened.dixiedean said:
The equivalent is grading this season on predictions moderated by past 3 years performance.another_richard said:
As each game was the equivalent of an exam there was enough to be marked on.Benpointer said:
Agreed. The football analogy is a good one - Man U would have won the simulated Premiership on the basis of 'past performance'.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.
The equivalent would have been every team claiming they would have won all their remaining games based on their own predictions.
Result. City champions.
Sheff Utd, Newcastle and Norwich relegated.
1 out of 4.
Any grading would have been on the unplayed games only.0 -
Yes but since the "exams" hadn't happened what has been done here is the equivalent of doing the entire season based on prior predictions, not just the end of it.another_richard said:
Not when the games / exams have already happened.dixiedean said:
The equivalent is grading this season on predictions moderated by past 3 years performance.another_richard said:
As each game was the equivalent of an exam there was enough to be marked on.Benpointer said:
Agreed. The football analogy is a good one - Man U would have won the simulated Premiership on the basis of 'past performance'.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.
The equivalent would have been every team claiming they would have won all their remaining games based on their own predictions.
Result. City champions.
Sheff Utd, Newcastle and Norwich relegated.
1 out of 4.
Any grading would have been on the unplayed games only.0 -
Disappointing news for the high street.
https://twitter.com/StopCityAirport/status/12943145850722959360 -
Heathrow and St Pancras aren't on the High Street are they?Andy_JS said:Disappointing news for the high street.
https://twitter.com/StopCityAirport/status/1294314585072295936
Not sure about the others.0 -
The St Pancras store was just tourist tat. Unsurprising.Philip_Thompson said:
Heathrow and St Pancras aren't on the High Street are they?Andy_JS said:Disappointing news for the high street.
https://twitter.com/StopCityAirport/status/1294314585072295936
Not sure about the others.
Really bad news, however, for Brum, Swindon, etc0 -
Exactly its not comparing like with like - its a ludicrous analogy.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes but since the "exams" hadn't happened what has been done here is the equivalent of doing the entire season based on prior predictions, not just the end of it.another_richard said:
Not when the games / exams have already happened.dixiedean said:
The equivalent is grading this season on predictions moderated by past 3 years performance.another_richard said:
As each game was the equivalent of an exam there was enough to be marked on.Benpointer said:
Agreed. The football analogy is a good one - Man U would have won the simulated Premiership on the basis of 'past performance'.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.
The equivalent would have been every team claiming they would have won all their remaining games based on their own predictions.
Result. City champions.
Sheff Utd, Newcastle and Norwich relegated.
1 out of 4.
Any grading would have been on the unplayed games only.0 -
Two of the others are ones I visit occasionally, being slightly old-fashioned in not using the internet to buy everything.Philip_Thompson said:
Heathrow and St Pancras aren't on the High Street are they?Andy_JS said:Disappointing news for the high street.
https://twitter.com/StopCityAirport/status/1294314585072295936
Not sure about the others.0 -
No, I got the point of the analogy I'm just not sure you've picked it up. The purpose of the analogy is to demonstrate just how inaccurate basing one year's results on prior results is. Each year will have differences.another_richard said:
Exactly its not comparing like with like - its a ludicrous analogy.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes but since the "exams" hadn't happened what has been done here is the equivalent of doing the entire season based on prior predictions, not just the end of it.another_richard said:
Not when the games / exams have already happened.dixiedean said:
The equivalent is grading this season on predictions moderated by past 3 years performance.another_richard said:
As each game was the equivalent of an exam there was enough to be marked on.Benpointer said:
Agreed. The football analogy is a good one - Man U would have won the simulated Premiership on the basis of 'past performance'.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.
The equivalent would have been every team claiming they would have won all their remaining games based on their own predictions.
Result. City champions.
Sheff Utd, Newcastle and Norwich relegated.
1 out of 4.
Any grading would have been on the unplayed games only.
If benefit of the doubt was being given to the pupils then the grades would have gone up by more than they have. Averages being close just means boosting some more so they have a better grade than they should have, while others have a worse grade than they should have - that isn't any more accurate than everyone having the grade they should have got or better. Or simply saying there are no grades this year since there were no exams.0 -
And your evidence for that claim is ?Philip_Thompson said:
No, I got the point of the analogy I'm just not sure you've picked it up. The purpose of the analogy is to demonstrate just how inaccurate basing one year's results on prior results is. Each year will have differences.another_richard said:
Exactly its not comparing like with like - its a ludicrous analogy.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes but since the "exams" hadn't happened what has been done here is the equivalent of doing the entire season based on prior predictions, not just the end of it.another_richard said:
Not when the games / exams have already happened.dixiedean said:
The equivalent is grading this season on predictions moderated by past 3 years performance.another_richard said:
As each game was the equivalent of an exam there was enough to be marked on.Benpointer said:
Agreed. The football analogy is a good one - Man U would have won the simulated Premiership on the basis of 'past performance'.dixiedean said:The fundamental problem is there can be no "accurate" or indeed any degree of accuracy in exam grades, as there have been no exams.
Failure to accept this is the basic error.
Had the football season been finished by a simulation no one would have accepted it. No matter how good the algorithm used.
Not sure what ought to have happened but basing admissions to Uni on exam grades in the absence of any exams is untenable and ought to have been foreseen.
The equivalent would have been every team claiming they would have won all their remaining games based on their own predictions.
Result. City champions.
Sheff Utd, Newcastle and Norwich relegated.
1 out of 4.
Any grading would have been on the unplayed games only.
If benefit of the doubt was being given to the pupils then the grades would have gone up by more than they have. Averages being close just means boosting some more so they have a better grade than they should have, while others have a worse grade than they should have - that isn't any more accurate than everyone having the grade they should have got or better. Or simply saying there are no grades this year since there were no exams.
The results are the highest ever but who cares about the people who will lose out by relying on bollox predictions.
If, as I said, you want to have a system where 40% get A grades then lets be honest about it.
And have 40% A grades every year.
Lets even make it retrospective if people want and increase everyone's grades for the last decade.0 -
Typically hilarious interview with Ronnie O'Sullivan after the match tonight where the only thing he was interested in talking about was having a "decent cue action". Mark Selby accused him of being "a bit disrespectful".0
-
Nonsense. The Sturge and all of what passes for opposition in Scotland demanded something worse.Alistair said:
I didn't think OfQual could actually come up with a worse approach than SQA yet somehow they have.Stuartinromford said:
Sorry, but that's pure spin.another_richard said:
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.kinabalu said:
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.carnforth said:
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...LadyG said:
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.Benpointer said:
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?JohnLilburne said:
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.Andy_JS said:
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
We've discovered that the Ofqual equation doesn't work very well. Ofqual tried the model on the 2019 exams, and they got about 40 % error rate between actual exam results and the output of their model.
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1293841154782441474
People who have poked around in the Ofqual black box think they've worked out why it sometimes gives insane outputs (the C --> U downgrades, for example).
https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/
Oh, and the Royal Statistical Society offered to help earlier on but couldn't come to an agreement about NDAs with the government.
https://twitter.com/RoyalStatSoc/status/1294308350285447177
Oh, and lots of young people have had their plans for the autumn thrown up in the air, because some have A Level results that have been held down, whereas other have results that have been allowed to inflate.
But no fiasco here. Oh no.0 -
Anybody assessing the performance of a particular government at any one point in time should wait until, if it ever is, over. Only six weeks ago everything in Spain and France looked fine and controlled, Spain has not lost control in most of the country but has some serious hot spots that need to be managed.humbugger said:
You'd be hard pushed to claim that France and Spain are doing better on Covid management than the UK right now.Benpointer said:
"There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not. "LadyG said:
There is also a growing sense that the govt has got a handle on Covid in a way other nations - France, Spain, Netherlands - have not.humbugger said:
That's not so surprising. So far Starmer has not provided any positive reason to vote Labour. He's contributed nothing in terms of an alternative to the government's management of Covid and his after the event criticisms grate. He's also dull and his team unknown and invisible. What's to vote for other than Labour not being the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-august/
Labour down 2 points!
This may be entirely false as a perspective. Maybe the UK has just got lucky, maybe our own second wave is coming (as holidaymakers return) nonetheless the hard data has the UK's R number notably down, compared to our peers.
That might be one reason the Tory lead has grown, slightly.
Our deaths per million capita and our drop in GDP suggest otherwise.0
This discussion has been closed.