Those of us betting on POTUS should bear in mind what is happening to UPS under Trump.
The GOP leaders make me physically sick. Do they actually want to live in a democracy or not?
Note that Secretaries of State and county election administrators in WA State and other all vote-by-mail jurisdictions routinely warn voters that ballots mailed just days before EDay may NOT arrive or be postmarked in time.
Thus better to either vote earlier OR put ballot in official ballot drop boxes OR deliver in person at election office or voting center.
Here in WA State there were few if any glitches (at least that I heard of) ballots in the mail, either in their delivery to voters OR return via USPS. Except for normal issue of ballots arriving couple of days after Primary Day withOUT valid (EDay or before) postmark.
Further note that August 2020 primary turnout here in WA State is setting all time record, much higher than previous years:
August 2016 = 34.9%
August 2018 = 40.8% (first election with pre-paid return ballot postage)
August 2020 = 54.1% (including 12k left to count out of 2.5m ballots returned)
Part of the +13% increase in primary turnout compared with two years ago is thanks to a Republican turnout surge for one of the plethora of minor-league Republicans running against incumbent Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee. (Over three dozen candidates filed and got on the gubernatorial ballot this year.)
Methinks rest of increase due to: > pre-paid return postage coming into it's own as nearly all voters now know about it, and are clearly using it (and no longer have to hunt for a stamp).
> presidential-year turnout tends to be higher than in off-year elections (pre-paid postage was X factor than made Aug 2018 turnout higher than Aug 2016).
> Trumpsky, some boost in turnout for him BUT even more against here in WA State, though in some parts of state outside of central Puget Sound opposite is true.
My basic point is, voters ARE using the mails. AND by and large the mail will get through.
Biggest concern for me is NOT USPS, but rather capacity of local election systems and workers across the nation to cope with the rising tide of postal voting. This is especially true for states and jurisdictions where mass voting by mail is a novelty, and laws and regulations are behind the times and otherwise inadequate (NY State is poster child for this).
Most folks - and virtually all politicos - have VERY limited concept of what the logistics of postal voting entail. Suffice to say, requires a LOT of funding, planning, personnel, training, etc.
AND remember that COVID increases the challenges and difficulties, even for places where all vote-by-mail is routine. Here in WA State, the ballot count was slowed by the flood of returned ballots - especially right before & on PDay - combined with staff shortages and system changes as result of the pandemic.
SO worry LESS about USPS, and MORE about the election machinery.
R4 now running the story that according to Trump, Kamala might not be eligible for VP
Trump gets overreported. The media is not the least important of his enablers.
Not sure. The fact that the current US President is running an apparently deliberate campaign, on several fronts, to delegitimise the result of a democratic election in his own country even before it happens is a big story. An awful, "how the f*** did we get here?" story, but a big one nevertheless. Are the media meant to pretend it isn't happening?
Not exactly news that Trumpsky is repeating his 2016 in this as in so much else,
Personally think its BEST for anti-Trumpsky cause to NOT constantly be publicizing his attacks on democracy, in particular his claims re: fraud with election process.
Why? Because this plays into the Putinist vote suppression strategy - don't bother to vote, it's all rigged, your ballot will be lost in the mail, etc., etc. ad infinitum.
Note that is is NOT something Trumpsky dreamed up, GOP has been pumping this bidge on regular basis for some time. BUT leave it to The Donald to push the envelope as per usual with him.
I agree political opponents should ignore it as that fuels it all. But the foreign media shouldn't really be part of the "anti-Trumsky cause" - the elected President actively working to delegitimise his own election IS a legitimate and significant news story - sorry, but it is.
It's true that it's a repeat of his 2016 stuff, but that is part of the Trump approach which you can't deny is happening, is real and important.
I hear you, Sir NP, and also concur on all counts - it is leg story, it is important, and political opponents should NOT give it the publicity that Trumpsky wants.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
Why would Trump be doing this when such information as we have suggests Republicans are more likely to vote by post?
Is he stupid, or is there something else going on?
In the primaries this year more Democrats voted postal as a proportion than Republicans AFAIK.
The irrelevant Republican primaries vs the contested Democratic ones?
There have been loads of state elections and Dems have voted by post far more than GOPers.
There was a NY special election which someone on here was touting as evidence that Trunp.was.doing great because it was a 30 point blow out for the GOP candidate. But after postal votes were counted it was only a 5 point win.
OK, so there is method in his madness.
I can’t help but feel though that even in this case it would be counter productive. What would be more likely to get Dems to vote in person than a fear their postal vote wouldn’t be counted?
It's even more precise. The GOP identified that his "No Mail Voting" message was seriously hurting their turnout in Florida (Old GOP voters were Not Voting Rather than voting in person) and so Trump, whilst continually urging everyone not to voter by mail, has tweeted an exception for Florida where he very much believes in the total integrity of the Florida mail voting system.
What is the US equivalent of the electoral commission? I'm not saying they are amazing or have covered themselves in glory wrt targeting people they didn't like with unnecessary investigations, I trust them to ensure the election is free, fair and not subject to political interference when they do take place. How has the US not got an equivalent who just sits above partisan politics and gets stuff done.
Doesn't each state have a Secretary of State position which covers electoral matters ?
And we had the incredible scenes of Georgia Secretary of State Brain Kemp having to investigate and rule on election irregularities on the Governor election where the GOP candidate was *checks notes* Brian Kemp.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
What is the US equivalent of the electoral commission? I'm not saying they are amazing or have covered themselves in glory wrt targeting people they didn't like with unnecessary investigations, I trust them to ensure the election is free, fair and not subject to political interference when they do take place. How has the US not got an equivalent who just sits above partisan politics and gets stuff done.
Doesn't each state have a Secretary of State position which covers electoral matters ?
And we had the incredible scenes of Georgia Secretary of State Brain Kemp having to investigate and rule on election irregularities on the Governor election where the GOP candidate was *checks notes* Brian Kemp.
That's almost banana republic standards of governing.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
By employers for those in work.
But the restrictions are to stop more people going to France etc rather than to affect those already there.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
By employers for those in work.
But the restrictions are to stop more people going to France etc rather than to affect those already there.
Ok, so the reason furlough needs to end - someone I know is basically looking to get redundancy but they won't pull the trigger and the person is happy sitting on furlough and won't bother looking for a new job until it's final. They are highly qualified and would walk into another job. They think with the changes of companies having to pay part of the costs will force the company to go down the redundancy road or call hmm back at which point it's notice time.
The company in question just posted huge profits and yet they are still using it.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
On my return from Schiphol I had to fill in an online form detailing where I'd been and when, passport number etc.Although despite what the gov.uk website said,and the signs at Luton, it wasn't checked either getting on the plane or going through immigration. (Just as no one asked for my Dutch health declaration on the way out) I don't know if they are electronically matched against passport number and followed up by exception. It is said they are following up one in five.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
Nicola will have you publicly shamed in her daily news cast live on Sky and BBC
I hope the UK isn’t on the same path as Spain but it’s looking increasingly similar just a few weeks behind.
It's not necessarily just that more people are getting mild symptoms, it's that more people are being tested. As Dr Foxy put it, they are doing door to door tests in hotspot areas so testing loads of people who would not normally have one. If you look at graphs of our increase in positive cases they are strangely linear, rather than exponential which you would expect if it was spreading in the wild, and it is a slow creep upwards rather than France or Spain where it is increasing much faster. Both ZOE and ONS reckon cases are flat or even decreasing. And with cases of the order of 1,000 a day then one localised outbreak like the sandwich factory is going to make a significant difference.
On topic, the VP market is a classic "bot" market. Simply have a bot that's always putting low stake lay "offers" into the market, so that when people back at too high a price you're there.
Ronnie not interested in winning or losing any more.
He seems very interested in winning if you ask me. When he plays like this, Selby is still very much up against it.
No. I didn't mean he doesn't want to win...rather that he doesn't seem to regard it as the MOST important thing. Which is why he is both highly vulnerable (not taking sufficient care in shot selection), and highly dangerous.(No other player would have attempted the opening red in this and previous frame when 1 away from defeat).
I suspect it means they're desperate to get people in.
And if that's what's happening at Oxford then the likes of Scumbag ** aren't going to be turning down anyone.
After all we've been told repeatedly that much of Higher Education is on the verge of bankruptcy.
** That's a Young Ones reference to those PBers who are young ones.
Not what I'm hearing from people in the sector - not a shortage of students for Autumn entry.
Remember that there will be fewer people going on a gap year, and students are of an age where they are less vulnerable. So there's no great demand problem from what I've heard.
Also, don't a lot of Oxford courses/colleges still do admissions test (and will have done them pre-lockdown) so often the A-levels are an afterthought.
So what were all those universities to go bust / lecturers to lose jobs / foreign students to stay away stories about ?
Surely not an attempt to get another handout or excuse to put up fees ?
A friend of mine's family business, of twenty or so English language schools, has been shut down. They spent 30 years building it, and now it is no more.
We're a full two weeks into August and yet unless I've missed something we've still had just one GB VI poll for which fieldwork took place entirely within the current month.
What is the US equivalent of the electoral commission? I'm not saying they are amazing or have covered themselves in glory wrt targeting people they didn't like with unnecessary investigations, I trust them to ensure the election is free, fair and not subject to political interference when they do take place. How has the US not got an equivalent who just sits above partisan politics and gets stuff done.
Doesn't each state have a Secretary of State position which covers electoral matters ?
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
What is the US equivalent of the electoral commission? I'm not saying they are amazing or have covered themselves in glory wrt targeting people they didn't like with unnecessary investigations, I trust them to ensure the election is free, fair and not subject to political interference when they do take place. How has the US not got an equivalent who just sits above partisan politics and gets stuff done.
In US election federal elections are regulated by federal law BUT are conducted by each state according to its own constitution, laws and regulations.
There is no true federal electoral commission in British sense. Congress has clear authority to legislate in this area, as for example in creating special Electoral Commission to decide outcome of contested 1876 presidential election outcome.
However, moves toward better federal election funding, policy, security and oversight have been stymied both by partisan wrangling and concerns about proper federal - state balance.
Note that under US Constitution, both Senate and House of Representatives have full power to determine their own memberships. Which 99 times out of 100 means each body decides its own election issues. (One example the other way: US Supreme Court ruling that expulsion of Adam Clayton Powell by House was unconstitutional, a decision that referred directly to the contested elections of radical John Wilkes as MP for Middlesex in the days of George III.)
Given this vacuum, in very close AND contested cases, it is left to the courts to sort out and determine the final results. As in 2000 presidential, where SCOTUS ruled in W's favor; and 2004 WA gubernatorial, where state courts ruled in favor of Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...
The increasing insanity as our governing class loses all perspective over the virus reached new heights it seems.
BBC are saying the captain of the last ferry to UK tonight from France has been told being in UK territorial waters before 4am is not legally sufficient. The boat must be docked.
Just saw the Selby interview, Ronnie won the mind games too.
I have some sympathy with Selby's view -Ronnie can be an arse sometimes but in this case I believe he was trying (in that smash it all over the place frame) to get it over with to purify his snooker for the last 3 frames. In essence he wasn't being disrespectful in this case he was bizarrely trying to find a way to win in only the way Ronnie can think. What happened in the last 3 frames though no other snooker player could ever have done . Ronnie is the ultimate contrarian , you even see it with his insistence about talking about getting a cue action from Amazon . He has to be different and he is very good at being different - occasionally he looks a prat , more often though he looks a genius
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...
Manufactured drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
You show no insight into this topic.
It's not one of your good ones.
I'm right though aren't I.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
"Well, put it this way, I feel very low in myself. I can't see much in the future, and I feel that any second something terrible is going to happen to me."
My strategy would be to drive across a border and finish my holiday in Germany or Italy. A non-stop drive across France to the Tunnel would be acceptable to avoid quarantine.
I suspect most people's strategy will be to follow the Cummings example and just ignore the quarantine. How is it being policed?
Yes, exactly. I find it hard to believe the cops are now going to be knocking on maybe 200,000 doors to make sure returning holidaymakers-from-France are staying home.
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
If no one is planning to quarantine, why the rush home, as reported in the news? Unless, of course, most people aren't rushing home at all and the great repatriation is hyperbole...
Manufactured needless drama to knock the exams fiasco off the front page.
Utterly pathetic state of affairs.
Except there is no exams fiasco is there.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
You show no insight into this topic.
It's not one of your good ones.
I'm right though aren't I.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.
In this instance it will probably get you a government U-turn by Monday.
Comments
Thus better to either vote earlier OR put ballot in official ballot drop boxes OR deliver in person at election office or voting center.
Here in WA State there were few if any glitches (at least that I heard of) ballots in the mail, either in their delivery to voters OR return via USPS. Except for normal issue of ballots arriving couple of days after Primary Day withOUT valid (EDay or before) postmark.
Further note that August 2020 primary turnout here in WA State is setting all time record, much higher than previous years:
August 2016 = 34.9%
August 2018 = 40.8% (first election with pre-paid return ballot postage)
August 2020 = 54.1% (including 12k left to count out of 2.5m ballots returned)
Part of the +13% increase in primary turnout compared with two years ago is thanks to a Republican turnout surge for one of the plethora of minor-league Republicans running against incumbent Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee. (Over three dozen candidates filed and got on the gubernatorial ballot this year.)
Methinks rest of increase due to:
> pre-paid return postage coming into it's own as nearly all voters now know about it, and are clearly using it (and no longer have to hunt for a stamp).
> presidential-year turnout tends to be higher than in off-year elections (pre-paid postage was X factor than made Aug 2018 turnout higher than Aug 2016).
> Trumpsky, some boost in turnout for him BUT even more against here in WA State, though in some parts of state outside of central Puget Sound opposite is true.
My basic point is, voters ARE using the mails. AND by and large the mail will get through.
Biggest concern for me is NOT USPS, but rather capacity of local election systems and workers across the nation to cope with the rising tide of postal voting. This is especially true for states and jurisdictions where mass voting by mail is a novelty, and laws and regulations are behind the times and otherwise inadequate (NY State is poster child for this).
Most folks - and virtually all politicos - have VERY limited concept of what the logistics of postal voting entail. Suffice to say, requires a LOT of funding, planning, personnel, training, etc.
AND remember that COVID increases the challenges and difficulties, even for places where all vote-by-mail is routine. Here in WA State, the ballot count was slowed by the flood of returned ballots - especially right before & on PDay - combined with staff shortages and system changes as result of the pandemic.
SO worry LESS about USPS, and MORE about the election machinery.
Ominous for Selby.
But the restrictions are to stop more people going to France etc rather than to affect those already there.
In July, Leicester saw 1,336 cases but only seven people were admitted to hospital with Covid-19.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53772459
The company in question just posted huge profits and yet they are still using it.
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1294365994534805510
Q. What's every Tory's favourite chocolate box selection?
A. Inequality Street!
(I thank you!)
Edit - he just doesn’t look like missing.
Barcelona 2 Bayern 5 and still nearly 30 mins to play
Fantastic football
and
We're catching 80% of cases, not 8% (made up numbers) of cases.
Which is why he is both highly vulnerable (not taking sufficient care in shot selection), and highly dangerous.(No other player would have attempted the opening red in this and previous frame when 1 away from defeat).
Oh how much I hate to agree partially with him
The GOP are so smeared in Trump's shit now that they don't know whether it is daylight or not.
But my hunch for the decider is Selby.
Please, please spend a ton of your advertising money in NY, Donald.
That's what's going down here.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/30/18118264/georgia-election-lawsuit-voter-suppression-abrams-kemp-race
Labour down 2 points!
And I speak as someone determined to go on a much-anticipated trip to Greece next Friday. Even as cases rise there....
There is no true federal electoral commission in British sense. Congress has clear authority to legislate in this area, as for example in creating special Electoral Commission to decide outcome of contested 1876 presidential election outcome.
However, moves toward better federal election funding, policy, security and oversight have been stymied both by partisan wrangling and concerns about proper federal - state balance.
Note that under US Constitution, both Senate and House of Representatives have full power to determine their own memberships. Which 99 times out of 100 means each body decides its own election issues. (One example the other way: US Supreme Court ruling that expulsion of Adam Clayton Powell by House was unconstitutional, a decision that referred directly to the contested elections of radical John Wilkes as MP for Middlesex in the days of George III.)
Given this vacuum, in very close AND contested cases, it is left to the courts to sort out and determine the final results. As in 2000 presidential, where SCOTUS ruled in W's favor; and 2004 WA gubernatorial, where state courts ruled in favor of Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire.
Plus he (Trumpsky, not Lincoln) wants Biden to put money into NY State. But NOT much chance of that happening, methinks.
BBC are saying the captain of the last ferry to UK tonight from France has been told being in UK territorial waters before 4am is not legally sufficient. The boat must be docked.
He has a race across the Channel on his hands.
Pathetic state of affairs.
Only if they are open.
But we have discovered that teachers grade predictions are less reliable than an estate agent's valuation.
It's not one of your good ones.
A lesson in life is to under-promise and over-deliver.
Over-promise and then tantrum will not get you far.