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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lesson from the Veepstakes

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2020 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lesson from the Veepstakes

We are in a battle for the soul of this nation. But together, it's a battle we can win.@JoeBiden—I'm ready to get to work. pic.twitter.com/3PJcUTYBGU

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Comments

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    edited August 2020
    Surely not first?

    And the biggest lesson from the Veepstakes I thought was "don't bet on them"?

    Albeit "lay the favourite" might be a good one. You're bound to have several favourites over time and only one of them will win.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Surely not first?

    Amazingly so.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Pip is right. While I made a reasonable amount on this market, it could have been a lot more if I had laid Warren at 5s not 12s, Abrams 4s not 8s, etc. It is an interesting challenge.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited August 2020
    Can somebody explain what it means when they say young people don't have respect for British values? YouGov poll
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Alistair said:

    Surely not first?

    Amazingly so.
    I'm sure Alistair Haimes and Toby Young will be able to prove I was actually no higher than fiftieth or sixtieth...
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Can somebody explain what it means when they say young people don't have respect for British values? YouGov poll

    I think it's a quote from Cicero, isn't it? Kids these days?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    All good advice.
    Can we republish this in three and a half years' time ?

    I did remark a few days ago that consistently laying the second favourite (there were many) would have been a very profitable strategy.
    Sadly I realised this a bit late in the day to have benefitted (possibly as I'd got on Harris at decent odds, and used most of my betting money on laying Trump).
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Ah, just spotted a typo. Typical...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Can somebody explain what it means when they say young people don't have respect for British values? YouGov poll

    That they didn't vote for Brexit.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Nigelb said:

    All good advice.
    Can we republish this in three and a half years' time ?

    Of course, but my agent will be in touch with OGH to have my fee doubled.
  • Quincel said:

    Ah, just spotted a typo. Typical...

    If only your publisher was on the thread.
  • What Pip's header might also have mentioned is that in the last day or two there were frequent flip-flops where Rice and then Harris would become favourite for a couple of hours. You could have made a fair few quid just trading the front two on the last day, and no doubt someone's bot did just that.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Quincel said:

    Ah, just spotted a typo. Typical...

    If only your publisher was on the thread.
    "Yes, Harris was an early favourite who was chosen, but see she was far from the only person to be backed very low."

    Remove the 'see'. Comes from a draft where the sentence was 'as we will see, she was[...]'. Shortened for brevity, but not proofed properly by the author.
  • On topic, this is the first Veep market I've turned a profit on in since 2004.

    It is a market where it is best to lay.

    That's my advice for 2024.
  • Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Ah, just spotted a typo. Typical...

    If only your publisher was on the thread.
    "Yes, Harris was an early favourite who was chosen, but see she was far from the only person to be backed very low."

    Remove the 'see'. Comes from a draft where the sentence was 'as we will see, she was[...]'. Shortened for brevity, but not proofed properly by the author.
    Fixed.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    What Pip's header might also have mentioned is that in the last day or two there were frequent flip-flops where Rice and then Harris would become favourite for a couple of hours. You could have made a fair few quid just trading the front two on the last day, and no doubt someone's bot did just that.

    This is true, but I think trading very late you risk getting your hand caught in the cookie jar when the music stops (to mix some metaphors). Definitely money to be made for the brave, but not my style.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Quincel said:

    Nigelb said:

    All good advice.
    Can we republish this in three and a half years' time ?

    Of course, but my agent will be in touch with OGH to have my fee doubled.
    He might just afford that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    BBC: "Toronto strip club case leaves hundreds potentially exposed"

    With headlines like that, a job at The Sun awaits!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    This approach makes a great deal of sense (particularly as individuals who are to only infected, but also currently infectious are more likely to be detected).

    https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1294117704517877760

    Similar regulatory problem over here, too, I think.

    https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1294117705864237057
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,721
    I hope the new name for the site is permanent!
  • I see Momentum take my view on what isn't rich.

    https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1294205157861990401

    Out of curiosity how many British trillionaires are there?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,167
    edited August 2020
    A very good article.

    It does seem to me that the lesson is to cover some fairly long odds but vaguely credible bets at the early stages (primary contenders, people with interesting back-stories in the Senate or Governor's mansions) then sell when they are having their 15 minutes of fame and come in to 3-1 or better. This year, it means you'd have profited despite never directly backing the potential winner (who was always well fancied). It's just a very fad-ish market.

    Selling Hilary and Michelle would also have been wise this year. So much chatter over things that were never even vaguely plausible.
  • I see Momentum take my view on what isn't rich.

    https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1294205157861990401

    Out of curiosity how many British trillionaires are there?

    I despise this lot.
  • Quincel said:

    What Pip's header might also have mentioned is that in the last day or two there were frequent flip-flops where Rice and then Harris would become favourite for a couple of hours. You could have made a fair few quid just trading the front two on the last day, and no doubt someone's bot did just that.

    This is true, but I think trading very late you risk getting your hand caught in the cookie jar when the music stops (to mix some metaphors). Definitely money to be made for the brave, but not my style.
    Another thing is to remember to look at the conventional bookmakers. At one point late on, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power had different favourites.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    A lengthy (and accurate) thread on why those questioning Harris' US citizenship are either utterly ignorant of US law, or utterly disingenuous, or both:

    https://twitter.com/juliedcantor/status/1294025422489804806
  • This takes the piss.

    The next generation of barristers have complained that they were forced to urinate in bottles and buckets during their professional ethics exam this week.

    The students were told they would fail their two hour 45 minute Bar Professional Training Course assessment if they left their desk to go to the loo, or if they did not maintain eye contact with their online invigilator.

    And so the nation's future barristers, having drunk copious amounts of water to stay hydrated on one of the hottest days of the year, found themselves weeing in containers while staring at a stranger on their laptop.

    Bar student Tian Juin See told RollOnFriday that when he asked to be excused about an hour into the exam, the online proctor refused.

    "I tried to hold it, but a little while later I asked again and he said no", said Tian.

    "It became rather unbearable and it was having an effect on my concentration", he said. Despite "literally begging" the proctor, Tian was told that "policy doesn't allow the use of toilets during exams. I told him that if I'm not allowed, I'm going to have to pee in the bottle, but he still wouldn't let me use the toilet".

    "Finally, I couldn't hold it anymore", said Tian. "so I dumped out the water in my bottle all over my carpet", though he couldn't see where he was pouring it as the proctor said he was not allowed to turn away from the camera, "and attempted to take a piss into my bottle, blindly, while trying not to move around too much or look away from my screen".

    "When I was done I raised the now yellow bottle to the webcam as if to say: 'Are you happy now?'"

    Others were pushed to similarly humiliating extremes. Sophie Lamb, who is studying at BPP University in Leeds, said she had to maintain eye contact with her webcam while urinating, after she was unable to get booked at a test centre. "I took a bucket in and wore a long maxi dress so that I could squat down with my face still on camera", she said. "The sacrifices we make for our careers".

    BPTC student Pete Kennedy said, "shorts and 5L bottle for me. Think I stealthed it."


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/aspiring-barristers-forced-urinate-bottles
  • Quincel said:

    What Pip's header might also have mentioned is that in the last day or two there were frequent flip-flops where Rice and then Harris would become favourite for a couple of hours. You could have made a fair few quid just trading the front two on the last day, and no doubt someone's bot did just that.

    This is true, but I think trading very late you risk getting your hand caught in the cookie jar when the music stops (to mix some metaphors). Definitely money to be made for the brave, but not my style.
    Another thing is to remember to look at the conventional bookmakers. At one point late on, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power had different favourites.
    But were they different enough that you could have backed the second favourite with both and profited whichever won?
  • Surely not first?

    And the biggest lesson from the Veepstakes I thought was "don't bet on them"?

    Albeit "lay the favourite" might be a good one. You're bound to have several favourites over time and only one of them will win.

    But wasn't Harris favourite almost throughout? Others came close and occasionally nudged ahead, but I am not sure it was volatile enough right at the top of the field for that to have worked this time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847
    Good piece thanks. Yes, the pro strategy for a market like this is to build up a book over time laying the nonsense and the hype of the moment. You have every chance of being all green and for decent sums by the time it's over.

    In fact this is a general betting technique of mine. Go against the herd when I sense the herd getting overexcited. It works particularly well for golf in play betting. Player on a charge, lay them. Player drops a couple of shots, back them. Then close out for a small profit if things stabilize and a big one if they switch.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    A lengthy (and accurate) thread on why those questioning Harris' US citizenship are either utterly ignorant of US law, or utterly disingenuous, or both:

    https://twitter.com/juliedcantor/status/1294025422489804806

    They're racists. Hope that helps.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847

    This takes the piss.

    The next generation of barristers have complained that they were forced to urinate in bottles and buckets during their professional ethics exam this week.

    The students were told they would fail their two hour 45 minute Bar Professional Training Course assessment if they left their desk to go to the loo, or if they did not maintain eye contact with their online invigilator.

    And so the nation's future barristers, having drunk copious amounts of water to stay hydrated on one of the hottest days of the year, found themselves weeing in containers while staring at a stranger on their laptop.

    Bar student Tian Juin See told RollOnFriday that when he asked to be excused about an hour into the exam, the online proctor refused.

    "I tried to hold it, but a little while later I asked again and he said no", said Tian.

    "It became rather unbearable and it was having an effect on my concentration", he said. Despite "literally begging" the proctor, Tian was told that "policy doesn't allow the use of toilets during exams. I told him that if I'm not allowed, I'm going to have to pee in the bottle, but he still wouldn't let me use the toilet".

    "Finally, I couldn't hold it anymore", said Tian. "so I dumped out the water in my bottle all over my carpet", though he couldn't see where he was pouring it as the proctor said he was not allowed to turn away from the camera, "and attempted to take a piss into my bottle, blindly, while trying not to move around too much or look away from my screen".

    "When I was done I raised the now yellow bottle to the webcam as if to say: 'Are you happy now?'"

    Others were pushed to similarly humiliating extremes. Sophie Lamb, who is studying at BPP University in Leeds, said she had to maintain eye contact with her webcam while urinating, after she was unable to get booked at a test centre. "I took a bucket in and wore a long maxi dress so that I could squat down with my face still on camera", she said. "The sacrifices we make for our careers".

    BPTC student Pete Kennedy said, "shorts and 5L bottle for me. Think I stealthed it."


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/aspiring-barristers-forced-urinate-bottles

    Oh god. Talk about getting into legal difficulties.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    A lengthy (and accurate) thread on why those questioning Harris' US citizenship are either utterly ignorant of US law, or utterly disingenuous, or both:

    https://twitter.com/juliedcantor/status/1294025422489804806

    They're racists. Hope that helps.
    That, too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Surely not first?

    And the biggest lesson from the Veepstakes I thought was "don't bet on them"?

    Albeit "lay the favourite" might be a good one. You're bound to have several favourites over time and only one of them will win.

    But wasn't Harris favourite almost throughout? Others came close and occasionally nudged ahead, but I am not sure it was volatile enough right at the top of the field for that to have worked this time.
    Hence my observation about laying the second favourites.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Surely not first?

    And the biggest lesson from the Veepstakes I thought was "don't bet on them"?

    Albeit "lay the favourite" might be a good one. You're bound to have several favourites over time and only one of them will win.

    But wasn't Harris favourite almost throughout? Others came close and occasionally nudged ahead, but I am not sure it was volatile enough right at the top of the field for that to have worked this time.
    "Lay the favourite" would have lost money, unless you executed very effectively in which case you'd have probably gone green by laying Rice at 1/2 or less. But that was a very narrow window. I am proposing more "Lay the steamer" when someone's odds drop rapidly and "Hold your nerve" to lay people pretty low when their odds do come in. Then back them again when they hit 50/1 or so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    It would be correct to reduce Johnson's majority slightly...
    The alternative is the parliament being decided by MPs themselves in this scenario...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    This takes the piss.

    The next generation of barristers have complained that they were forced to urinate in bottles and buckets during their professional ethics exam this week.

    The students were told they would fail their two hour 45 minute Bar Professional Training Course assessment if they left their desk to go to the loo, or if they did not maintain eye contact with their online invigilator.

    And so the nation's future barristers, having drunk copious amounts of water to stay hydrated on one of the hottest days of the year, found themselves weeing in containers while staring at a stranger on their laptop.

    Bar student Tian Juin See told RollOnFriday that when he asked to be excused about an hour into the exam, the online proctor refused.

    "I tried to hold it, but a little while later I asked again and he said no", said Tian.

    "It became rather unbearable and it was having an effect on my concentration", he said. Despite "literally begging" the proctor, Tian was told that "policy doesn't allow the use of toilets during exams. I told him that if I'm not allowed, I'm going to have to pee in the bottle, but he still wouldn't let me use the toilet".

    "Finally, I couldn't hold it anymore", said Tian. "so I dumped out the water in my bottle all over my carpet", though he couldn't see where he was pouring it as the proctor said he was not allowed to turn away from the camera, "and attempted to take a piss into my bottle, blindly, while trying not to move around too much or look away from my screen".

    "When I was done I raised the now yellow bottle to the webcam as if to say: 'Are you happy now?'"

    Others were pushed to similarly humiliating extremes. Sophie Lamb, who is studying at BPP University in Leeds, said she had to maintain eye contact with her webcam while urinating, after she was unable to get booked at a test centre. "I took a bucket in and wore a long maxi dress so that I could squat down with my face still on camera", she said. "The sacrifices we make for our careers".

    BPTC student Pete Kennedy said, "shorts and 5L bottle for me. Think I stealthed it."


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/aspiring-barristers-forced-urinate-bottles

    Oh god. Talk about getting into legal difficulties.
    Goes with the territory. Where do they think the expression "chamber pot" comes from?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Some thought experiments are just plain stupid. This falls into that category.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732
    kinabalu said:

    This takes the piss.

    The next generation of barristers have complained that they were forced to urinate in bottles and buckets during their professional ethics exam this week.

    The students were told they would fail their two hour 45 minute Bar Professional Training Course assessment if they left their desk to go to the loo, or if they did not maintain eye contact with their online invigilator.

    And so the nation's future barristers, having drunk copious amounts of water to stay hydrated on one of the hottest days of the year, found themselves weeing in containers while staring at a stranger on their laptop.

    Bar student Tian Juin See told RollOnFriday that when he asked to be excused about an hour into the exam, the online proctor refused.

    "I tried to hold it, but a little while later I asked again and he said no", said Tian.

    "It became rather unbearable and it was having an effect on my concentration", he said. Despite "literally begging" the proctor, Tian was told that "policy doesn't allow the use of toilets during exams. I told him that if I'm not allowed, I'm going to have to pee in the bottle, but he still wouldn't let me use the toilet".

    "Finally, I couldn't hold it anymore", said Tian. "so I dumped out the water in my bottle all over my carpet", though he couldn't see where he was pouring it as the proctor said he was not allowed to turn away from the camera, "and attempted to take a piss into my bottle, blindly, while trying not to move around too much or look away from my screen".

    "When I was done I raised the now yellow bottle to the webcam as if to say: 'Are you happy now?'"

    Others were pushed to similarly humiliating extremes. Sophie Lamb, who is studying at BPP University in Leeds, said she had to maintain eye contact with her webcam while urinating, after she was unable to get booked at a test centre. "I took a bucket in and wore a long maxi dress so that I could squat down with my face still on camera", she said. "The sacrifices we make for our careers".

    BPTC student Pete Kennedy said, "shorts and 5L bottle for me. Think I stealthed it."


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/aspiring-barristers-forced-urinate-bottles

    Oh god. Talk about getting into legal difficulties.
    Sounds like a new form of torture.

    Perhaps we should call it the bladder rack.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    edited August 2020
    Politico is coming up with some consistently good reporting on the campaign.
    This story of the Obama/Biden relationship is very interesting (and on the money about Obama's faults, I think).

    ‘The President Was Not Encouraging’: What Obama Really Thought About Biden
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Nigelb said:

    Politico is coming up with some consistently good reporting on the campaign.
    This story of the Obama/Biden relationship is very interesting.

    ‘The President Was Not Encouraging’: What Obama Really Thought About Biden
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570

    I agree. In the last year or so, I think politico has consistently upped the quality of their work. I never used to bother with them, but now I feel they are amongst the best political commentators out there.

    Or maybe it is that I have totally lost faith in the GOP as currently constituted.
  • Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    A lengthy (and accurate) thread on why those questioning Harris' US citizenship are either utterly ignorant of US law, or utterly disingenuous, or both:

    https://twitter.com/juliedcantor/status/1294025422489804806

    They're racists. Hope that helps.
    It does not help, and misses the point which is to sow confusion and dissent and distract from real issues, just like when used against Obama and (let us not forget) Cruz.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    P
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    This takes the piss.

    The next generation of barristers have complained that they were forced to urinate in bottles and buckets during their professional ethics exam this week.

    The students were told they would fail their two hour 45 minute Bar Professional Training Course assessment if they left their desk to go to the loo, or if they did not maintain eye contact with their online invigilator.

    And so the nation's future barristers, having drunk copious amounts of water to stay hydrated on one of the hottest days of the year, found themselves weeing in containers while staring at a stranger on their laptop.

    Bar student Tian Juin See told RollOnFriday that when he asked to be excused about an hour into the exam, the online proctor refused.

    "I tried to hold it, but a little while later I asked again and he said no", said Tian.

    "It became rather unbearable and it was having an effect on my concentration", he said. Despite "literally begging" the proctor, Tian was told that "policy doesn't allow the use of toilets during exams. I told him that if I'm not allowed, I'm going to have to pee in the bottle, but he still wouldn't let me use the toilet".

    "Finally, I couldn't hold it anymore", said Tian. "so I dumped out the water in my bottle all over my carpet", though he couldn't see where he was pouring it as the proctor said he was not allowed to turn away from the camera, "and attempted to take a piss into my bottle, blindly, while trying not to move around too much or look away from my screen".

    "When I was done I raised the now yellow bottle to the webcam as if to say: 'Are you happy now?'"

    Others were pushed to similarly humiliating extremes. Sophie Lamb, who is studying at BPP University in Leeds, said she had to maintain eye contact with her webcam while urinating, after she was unable to get booked at a test centre. "I took a bucket in and wore a long maxi dress so that I could squat down with my face still on camera", she said. "The sacrifices we make for our careers".

    BPTC student Pete Kennedy said, "shorts and 5L bottle for me. Think I stealthed it."


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/aspiring-barristers-forced-urinate-bottles

    Oh god. Talk about getting into legal difficulties.
    Sounds like a new form of torture.

    Perhaps we should call it the bladder rack.
    Particularly ironic that it was an ethics exam ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732
    TimT said:

    Some thought experiments are just plain stupid. This falls into that category.
    You’re quite right, it is.

    So why the fuck did they use it for exam grades?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited August 2020
    ydoethur said:

    TimT said:

    Some thought experiments are just plain stupid. This falls into that category.
    You’re quite right, it is.

    So why the fuck did they use it for exam grades?
    I am in agreement with you. I fail to see why examination setters can't replace their usual model with an open book exam to meet the realities of COVID. Hell, a good open book exam could easily tell you more about actual learning than a 'spew out the correct answer' exam.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    A lengthy (and accurate) thread on why those questioning Harris' US citizenship are either utterly ignorant of US law, or utterly disingenuous, or both:

    https://twitter.com/juliedcantor/status/1294025422489804806

    They're racists. Hope that helps.
    Though the real disgrace is Newsweek actually publishing this as an opinion piece.
    Giving a platform to an evident racist lie helps give it traction.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,880
    Masterful article with excellent advice. I sincerely hope everyone has forgotten it by 2024.

    I'd add one additional thing which is that there were some dead certainty bets on this market that were pretty profitable (figures in brackets are prices I got - not the best available).

    Hilary Clinton (laid at 35), Michelle Obama (laid at 15), Mitt Romney (laid at 95), Barack Obama (laid at 110)…
  • Quincel said:

    What Pip's header might also have mentioned is that in the last day or two there were frequent flip-flops where Rice and then Harris would become favourite for a couple of hours. You could have made a fair few quid just trading the front two on the last day, and no doubt someone's bot did just that.

    This is true, but I think trading very late you risk getting your hand caught in the cookie jar when the music stops (to mix some metaphors). Definitely money to be made for the brave, but not my style.
    Another thing is to remember to look at the conventional bookmakers. At one point late on, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power had different favourites.
    But were they different enough that you could have backed the second favourite with both and profited whichever won?
    Yes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Politico is coming up with some consistently good reporting on the campaign.
    This story of the Obama/Biden relationship is very interesting (and on the money about Obama's faults, I think).

    ‘The President Was Not Encouraging’: What Obama Really Thought About Biden
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570

    The article says Biden only got Cs and Ds at Delaware University apart from an A in PE, Obama was closer to the more cerebral and disciplined Hillary though Biden was more folksy
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    When you have a global pandemic there are going to be some losers. Also, it looks as though the more unequal your society is, the more unequal will be the consequences.

    This would be a lot less of a problem if we abandoned the myth of meritocracy.

    In any case we don't need a thought experiment. We faced this problem in WWII, and what happened was that the general election was delayed. Suggests obvious solution of asking all kids to repeat a year.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    A lengthy (and accurate) thread on why those questioning Harris' US citizenship are either utterly ignorant of US law, or utterly disingenuous, or both:

    https://twitter.com/juliedcantor/status/1294025422489804806

    They're racists. Hope that helps.
    Though the real disgrace is Newsweek actually publishing this as an opinion piece.
    Giving a platform to an evident racist lie helps give it traction.
    That was my main thought.

    Wither "cancel culture" when you need it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    A lengthy (and accurate) thread on why those questioning Harris' US citizenship are either utterly ignorant of US law, or utterly disingenuous, or both:

    https://twitter.com/juliedcantor/status/1294025422489804806

    They're racists. Hope that helps.
    But at least they don't want to abolish animals.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Is the light actually abysmal at Southampton or are the umpires verging on the ridiculous side of caution >?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,605
    Case data out at last

    Scaled to 100k Population

    image
  • This takes the piss.

    The next generation of barristers have complained that they were forced to urinate in bottles and buckets during their professional ethics exam this week.

    The students were told they would fail their two hour 45 minute Bar Professional Training Course assessment if they left their desk to go to the loo, or if they did not maintain eye contact with their online invigilator.

    And so the nation's future barristers, having drunk copious amounts of water to stay hydrated on one of the hottest days of the year, found themselves weeing in containers while staring at a stranger on their laptop.

    Bar student Tian Juin See told RollOnFriday that when he asked to be excused about an hour into the exam, the online proctor refused.

    "I tried to hold it, but a little while later I asked again and he said no", said Tian.

    "It became rather unbearable and it was having an effect on my concentration", he said. Despite "literally begging" the proctor, Tian was told that "policy doesn't allow the use of toilets during exams. I told him that if I'm not allowed, I'm going to have to pee in the bottle, but he still wouldn't let me use the toilet".

    "Finally, I couldn't hold it anymore", said Tian. "so I dumped out the water in my bottle all over my carpet", though he couldn't see where he was pouring it as the proctor said he was not allowed to turn away from the camera, "and attempted to take a piss into my bottle, blindly, while trying not to move around too much or look away from my screen".

    "When I was done I raised the now yellow bottle to the webcam as if to say: 'Are you happy now?'"

    Others were pushed to similarly humiliating extremes. Sophie Lamb, who is studying at BPP University in Leeds, said she had to maintain eye contact with her webcam while urinating, after she was unable to get booked at a test centre. "I took a bucket in and wore a long maxi dress so that I could squat down with my face still on camera", she said. "The sacrifices we make for our careers".

    BPTC student Pete Kennedy said, "shorts and 5L bottle for me. Think I stealthed it."


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/aspiring-barristers-forced-urinate-bottles

    "Shorts and 5L bottle" reminds me of the old hippy dude in Hyde Park at the Roger Waters gig. Plastic pint glass gets compressed and inserted up leg, then removed full and the wee thrown on the grass. Was rather impressive TBH and can't have been any less sanitary than the toilets *shudder*
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,605
    England case data - absolute

    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    When you have a global pandemic there are going to be some losers. Also, it looks as though the more unequal your society is, the more unequal will be the consequences.

    This would be a lot less of a problem if we abandoned the myth of meritocracy.

    In any case we don't need a thought experiment. We faced this problem in WWII, and what happened was that the general election was delayed. Suggests obvious solution of asking all kids to repeat a year.
    And where do we get the twice as many GCSE A Level teachers and classrooms from?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,605
    England case data - regions

    image
    image
  • Good piece and Quincel is absolutely right. The big 'but' is that you can't really make big bucks like this without taking huge risks. In fact the principle applies to most betting markets and if you are prepared to accumulate small profits you can happily do so in a variety of sports. Dog-racing is good for this, because there are a lot of races and the betting tends to be volatile. You do occasionally get caught out though so net returns at the end of the day hardly justify the effort.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847

    This takes the piss.

    The next generation of barristers have complained that they were forced to urinate in bottles and buckets during their professional ethics exam this week.

    The students were told they would fail their two hour 45 minute Bar Professional Training Course assessment if they left their desk to go to the loo, or if they did not maintain eye contact with their online invigilator.

    And so the nation's future barristers, having drunk copious amounts of water to stay hydrated on one of the hottest days of the year, found themselves weeing in containers while staring at a stranger on their laptop.

    Bar student Tian Juin See told RollOnFriday that when he asked to be excused about an hour into the exam, the online proctor refused.

    "I tried to hold it, but a little while later I asked again and he said no", said Tian.

    "It became rather unbearable and it was having an effect on my concentration", he said. Despite "literally begging" the proctor, Tian was told that "policy doesn't allow the use of toilets during exams. I told him that if I'm not allowed, I'm going to have to pee in the bottle, but he still wouldn't let me use the toilet".

    "Finally, I couldn't hold it anymore", said Tian. "so I dumped out the water in my bottle all over my carpet", though he couldn't see where he was pouring it as the proctor said he was not allowed to turn away from the camera, "and attempted to take a piss into my bottle, blindly, while trying not to move around too much or look away from my screen".

    "When I was done I raised the now yellow bottle to the webcam as if to say: 'Are you happy now?'"

    Others were pushed to similarly humiliating extremes. Sophie Lamb, who is studying at BPP University in Leeds, said she had to maintain eye contact with her webcam while urinating, after she was unable to get booked at a test centre. "I took a bucket in and wore a long maxi dress so that I could squat down with my face still on camera", she said. "The sacrifices we make for our careers".

    BPTC student Pete Kennedy said, "shorts and 5L bottle for me. Think I stealthed it."


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/aspiring-barristers-forced-urinate-bottles

    "Shorts and 5L bottle" reminds me of the old hippy dude in Hyde Park at the Roger Waters gig. Plastic pint glass gets compressed and inserted up leg, then removed full and the wee thrown on the grass. Was rather impressive TBH and can't have been any less sanitary than the toilets *shudder*
    Hard for me to picture that working but I feel compelled to try at the first opportunity.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    A lengthy (and accurate) thread on why those questioning Harris' US citizenship are either utterly ignorant of US law, or utterly disingenuous, or both:

    https://twitter.com/juliedcantor/status/1294025422489804806

    They're racists. Hope that helps.
    Though the real disgrace is Newsweek actually publishing this as an opinion piece.
    Giving a platform to an evident racist lie helps give it traction.
    Newsweek is not what it was.

    Much worse than the original piece was the defence that Newsweek published. Utterly jaw dropping.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    kinabalu said:

    This takes the piss.

    The next generation of barristers have complained that they were forced to urinate in bottles and buckets during their professional ethics exam this week.

    The students were told they would fail their two hour 45 minute Bar Professional Training Course assessment if they left their desk to go to the loo, or if they did not maintain eye contact with their online invigilator.

    And so the nation's future barristers, having drunk copious amounts of water to stay hydrated on one of the hottest days of the year, found themselves weeing in containers while staring at a stranger on their laptop.

    Bar student Tian Juin See told RollOnFriday that when he asked to be excused about an hour into the exam, the online proctor refused.

    "I tried to hold it, but a little while later I asked again and he said no", said Tian.

    "It became rather unbearable and it was having an effect on my concentration", he said. Despite "literally begging" the proctor, Tian was told that "policy doesn't allow the use of toilets during exams. I told him that if I'm not allowed, I'm going to have to pee in the bottle, but he still wouldn't let me use the toilet".

    "Finally, I couldn't hold it anymore", said Tian. "so I dumped out the water in my bottle all over my carpet", though he couldn't see where he was pouring it as the proctor said he was not allowed to turn away from the camera, "and attempted to take a piss into my bottle, blindly, while trying not to move around too much or look away from my screen".

    "When I was done I raised the now yellow bottle to the webcam as if to say: 'Are you happy now?'"

    Others were pushed to similarly humiliating extremes. Sophie Lamb, who is studying at BPP University in Leeds, said she had to maintain eye contact with her webcam while urinating, after she was unable to get booked at a test centre. "I took a bucket in and wore a long maxi dress so that I could squat down with my face still on camera", she said. "The sacrifices we make for our careers".

    BPTC student Pete Kennedy said, "shorts and 5L bottle for me. Think I stealthed it."


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/aspiring-barristers-forced-urinate-bottles

    "Shorts and 5L bottle" reminds me of the old hippy dude in Hyde Park at the Roger Waters gig. Plastic pint glass gets compressed and inserted up leg, then removed full and the wee thrown on the grass. Was rather impressive TBH and can't have been any less sanitary than the toilets *shudder*
    Hard for me to picture that working but I feel compelled to try at the first opportunity.
    AS long as its not the shorts and the 5L bottle? That sounds well dodgy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    I see Momentum take my view on what isn't rich.

    https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1294205157861990401

    Out of curiosity how many British trillionaires are there?

    I despise this lot.
    Actually, they kind of have a point don;t they?

    The super rich probably are too rich relative to the rest of us. and the gap is only growing.

    Things we took for granted even thirty years ago are suddenly starting to become out of our reach again.

    The family holiday abroad (COVID!) The petrol car (Climate Change!) A warm gas heated boiler home (Climate change!) Any home (Population growth!). Education for our kids (COVID!). Decent health treatment (COVID!).

    Is this by design? Probably not. But this year all that has happened. You might say it'll be back before we know it, and these are short term problems. I hope so.
  • malcolmg said:
    If they're playing to the English I sort of get it but this is the kind of nonsense which just pushes Scotland away.

    This Government is so utterly clueless when it comes to anything to do with Scotland, I feel.
  • Feel proper shit just want the Scottish seats back :(
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Feel proper shit just want the Scottish seats back :(

    Just think how the PB Tories feel when looking at maps of elections from the 50s.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    I see Momentum take my view on what isn't rich.

    https://twitter.com/momentumleeds/status/1294220926951849986?s=21
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    I see Momentum take my view on what isn't rich.

    https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1294205157861990401

    Out of curiosity how many British trillionaires are there?

    I despise this lot.
    Actually, they kind of have a point don;t they?

    The super rich probably are too rich relative to the rest of us. and the gap is only growing.

    Things we took for granted even thirty years ago are suddenly starting to become out of our reach again.

    The family holiday abroad (COVID!) The petrol car (Climate Change!) A warm gas heated boiler home (Climate change!) Any home (Population growth!). Education for our kids (COVID!). Decent health treatment (COVID!).

    Is this by design? Probably not. But this year all that has happened. You might say it'll be back before we know it, and these are short term problems. I hope so.
    If Momentum don't want to tax people who earn £150K it just confirms they don't belong in the Labour party. They should all fuck off and join the Tories.

    Surely this is a spoof?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,714
    On Topic - Harris turned out to be a good bet.

    Good job Mike chickened out and made a small profit. Could have been nasty.

    My Betting Post from yesterday. I am tempted to take a £210 profit on the draw but still a potential additional £630 profit to go at.

    My rationale yesterday was that we would only get 180 overs in total so couldnt see how a positive result could be achieved. Lost Password reckoned there would be over 350 overs (which would likely make my bet a loser.)

    86 overs so far so if no more play today and a poor forecast for tomorrow afternoon and the following 2 days i am tempted to keep the bet going.

    What do people think take a £210 profit or leave the bet running?
  • RobD said:

    Feel proper shit just want the Scottish seats back :(

    Just think how the PB Tories feel when looking at maps of elections from the 50s.
    Did you get the reference?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    This takes the piss.

    The next generation of barristers have complained that they were forced to urinate in bottles and buckets during their professional ethics exam this week.

    The students were told they would fail their two hour 45 minute Bar Professional Training Course assessment if they left their desk to go to the loo, or if they did not maintain eye contact with their online invigilator.

    And so the nation's future barristers, having drunk copious amounts of water to stay hydrated on one of the hottest days of the year, found themselves weeing in containers while staring at a stranger on their laptop.

    Bar student Tian Juin See told RollOnFriday that when he asked to be excused about an hour into the exam, the online proctor refused.

    "I tried to hold it, but a little while later I asked again and he said no", said Tian.

    "It became rather unbearable and it was having an effect on my concentration", he said. Despite "literally begging" the proctor, Tian was told that "policy doesn't allow the use of toilets during exams. I told him that if I'm not allowed, I'm going to have to pee in the bottle, but he still wouldn't let me use the toilet".

    "Finally, I couldn't hold it anymore", said Tian. "so I dumped out the water in my bottle all over my carpet", though he couldn't see where he was pouring it as the proctor said he was not allowed to turn away from the camera, "and attempted to take a piss into my bottle, blindly, while trying not to move around too much or look away from my screen".

    "When I was done I raised the now yellow bottle to the webcam as if to say: 'Are you happy now?'"

    Others were pushed to similarly humiliating extremes. Sophie Lamb, who is studying at BPP University in Leeds, said she had to maintain eye contact with her webcam while urinating, after she was unable to get booked at a test centre. "I took a bucket in and wore a long maxi dress so that I could squat down with my face still on camera", she said. "The sacrifices we make for our careers".

    BPTC student Pete Kennedy said, "shorts and 5L bottle for me. Think I stealthed it."


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/aspiring-barristers-forced-urinate-bottles

    "Shorts and 5L bottle" reminds me of the old hippy dude in Hyde Park at the Roger Waters gig. Plastic pint glass gets compressed and inserted up leg, then removed full and the wee thrown on the grass. Was rather impressive TBH and can't have been any less sanitary than the toilets *shudder*
    Hard for me to picture that working but I feel compelled to try at the first opportunity.
    AS long as its not the shorts and the 5L bottle? That sounds well dodgy.
    No, won't be doing that. You shouldn't put any foreign objects in your shorts.

    But that plastic glass / bell bottoms idea is genuinely intriguing.
  • I see Momentum take my view on what isn't rich.

    https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1294205157861990401

    Out of curiosity how many British trillionaires are there?

    I despise this lot.
    Actually, they kind of have a point don;t they?

    The super rich probably are too rich relative to the rest of us. and the gap is only growing.

    Things we took for granted even thirty years ago are suddenly starting to become out of our reach again.

    The family holiday abroad (COVID!) The petrol car (Climate Change!) A warm gas heated boiler home (Climate change!) Any home (Population growth!). Education for our kids (COVID!). Decent health treatment (COVID!).

    Is this by design? Probably not. But this year all that has happened. You might say it'll be back before we know it, and these are short term problems. I hope so.
    If Momentum don't want to tax people who earn £150K it just confirms they don't belong in the Labour party. They should all fuck off and join the Tories.

    Surely this is a spoof?
    I'm now a Tory as I support Biden to win the Presidency, that is what a leftie on Twitter told me.

    When will this people understand there's a massive gap between Corbynism and Blairism. You don't have to be one or the other.

    How about we figure out what the public want whilst looking at our principles and go there.

    For 2015 Labour was seen as Tory-lite and 2019 Labour was seen as old Labour but worse, there is a gap there we're just not exploring.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,714
    Cash out gone up to £300 profit now (from £210 in last 10 mins) i am 50/50 if it goes to £350 i am taking it.
  • https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/rishi-sunak-londoners-return-work-save-economy-a4524841.html

    Just last year they told me to stop wasting money on pointless things like avocado on toast and to save for a deposit instead as anyone can do it.
  • I see Momentum take my view on what isn't rich.

    https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1294205157861990401

    Out of curiosity how many British trillionaires are there?

    I despise this lot.
    Actually, they kind of have a point don;t they?

    The super rich probably are too rich relative to the rest of us. and the gap is only growing.

    Things we took for granted even thirty years ago are suddenly starting to become out of our reach again.

    The family holiday abroad (COVID!) The petrol car (Climate Change!) A warm gas heated boiler home (Climate change!) Any home (Population growth!). Education for our kids (COVID!). Decent health treatment (COVID!).

    Is this by design? Probably not. But this year all that has happened. You might say it'll be back before we know it, and these are short term problems. I hope so.
    That's not the criticism, though.

    The point is that Momentum are saying that hammering the super-rich is (a) possible without them leaving the country; and (b) likely to raise enough to solve social problems without ANY contribution from people earning as much as £150k, which is extremely comfortable to put it at its mildest.

    That's incredibly disingenuous snake oil salesmanship - a ludicrous false prospectus to the well off, and downright cruel to people bearing the brunt of social problems.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    Cash out gone up to £300 profit now (from £210 in last 10 mins) i am 50/50 if it goes to £350 i am taking it.

    Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    malcolmg said:
    If they're playing to the English I sort of get it but this is the kind of nonsense which just pushes Scotland away.

    This Government is so utterly clueless when it comes to anything to do with Scotland, I feel.
    You always think there must be some really really clever thing behind it but it always ends up they prove that they really are just that dumb.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847

    On Topic - Harris turned out to be a good bet.

    Good job Mike chickened out and made a small profit. Could have been nasty.

    My Betting Post from yesterday. I am tempted to take a £210 profit on the draw but still a potential additional £630 profit to go at.

    My rationale yesterday was that we would only get 180 overs in total so couldnt see how a positive result could be achieved. Lost Password reckoned there would be over 350 overs (which would likely make my bet a loser.)

    86 overs so far so if no more play today and a poor forecast for tomorrow afternoon and the following 2 days i am tempted to keep the bet going.

    What do people think take a £210 profit or leave the bet running?

    Yes thanks (least so far!) for that. I did the draw too - although only for a fraction of your punt - and I'm leaving it with open layback at 1.25. But for £210 I'd be tempted to take half now.
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    A lengthy (and accurate) thread on why those questioning Harris' US citizenship are either utterly ignorant of US law, or utterly disingenuous, or both:

    https://twitter.com/juliedcantor/status/1294025422489804806

    They're racists. Hope that helps.
    Though the real disgrace is Newsweek actually publishing this as an opinion piece.
    Giving a platform to an evident racist lie helps give it traction.
    When yours truly was a kid, Newsweek was - along with Time - a national institution. When they started to decline was just about the same time they (along with Sunday Times) fell for the Hitler Diaries hoax. Or semi-fell; they published, indeed heavily marketed choice excepts from this fraud, but in a way that showed they had their doubts as to it's authenticity.

    Now personally know NOBODY who regularly reads what is left of Newsweek. Once again, they've published a fraud trying to recoup their readership loses.

    Tis a strategy fit for losers.
  • https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/rishi-sunak-londoners-return-work-save-economy-a4524841.html

    Just last year they told me to stop wasting money on pointless things like avocado on toast and to save for a deposit instead as anyone can do it.

    But very suddenly the problem we have isn't that the saving rate is too low, but that it's too high. It's completely possible either for households to be saving too little (storing up liabilities for the future) or too much (leading the service sector to grind to a halt). Last year the problem was the former, now it's very unexpectedly the latter.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,714
    Interesting bet Pakistan who are currently 223-9 are 1.24 on 225 or more.

    Guess it depends if they declare overnight or not
  • I love these guys, I don't know who is doing their Twitter stuff but Labour should hire them.

    It's like an advert for a Saw movie lol
  • What will the Government do for young people in the long term so we can buy houses
  • https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1294281202363518977

    I wonder if this becomes more common place
  • Yes, but Scottish IS a brand when it comes to advertising, one that is very appealing, persuasive, powerful in its impact upon consumers. Much more so methinks than English or Welsh (to say nothing of Cornish) and in same league as Irish.

    Scotland as a brand must rank among the top national brands around the world. Perhaps in part because Scottish does NOT have negative connotations that crop up with British and English (also strong brands) for many people in many countries.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,714

    I love these guys, I don't know who is doing their Twitter stuff but Labour should hire them.

    It's like an advert for a Saw movie lol
    Labour really should hire them.

    Brilliant ad.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    What will the Government do for young people in the long term so we can buy houses

    Well, it's trying to make it easier and cheaper to build them,. The opposition parties which young people tend to vote for are slagging them off for it. Funny old world, isn't it?
This discussion has been closed.