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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far the Kamala Harris announcement hasn’t impacted on the WH2020 betting
So far there has been very little polling carried out after yesterday’s big announcement that Kamala Harris will be the nominee for VP. In the betting markets the news, which has been widely covered in the US, has hardly moved Biden is seen as about a 60% chance.
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First
For the second time this week.0 -
second for the first time this week1
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"without an audience"
Without a LIVE audience, aside from small army of techs & hangers-on.
Haven't seen ratings, but was broadcast live on most if not all networks. Plus views on youtube & etc.0 -
Can Trump still do it?
The 2016-2020 double??0 -
You could perhaps give a clue what you are referring to?SeaShantyIrish2 said:"without an audience"
Without a LIVE audience, aside from small army of techs & hangers-on.
Haven't seen ratings, but was broadcast live on most if not all networks. Plus views on youtube & etc.0 -
But that must itself be a pun on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tricyclic_antidepressantFoxy said:
Rhyming slang for psychiatrist.eristdoof said:
Isn't a trick-cyclist a slang name for an anti-depressant, or do you use the same nickname for those taking it?Foxy said:
Strangely, it seems very poorly correlated with what I would asses as risk, particularly weighed against the conditions that I see them for. More to do with precovid personality traits.another_richard said:
Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?Foxy said:
Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.Black_Rook said:
And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.Northern_Al said:
I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.MaxPB said:
I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".rural_voter said:
The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).rottenborough said:
" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "MaxPB said:I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".
Telegraph
The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.
Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.
*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.
Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?
One of our trick-cyclists told me that the national suicide rate is up 25% on last year.
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Read the thread headerPagan2 said:
You could perhaps give a clue what you are referring to?SeaShantyIrish2 said:"without an audience"
Without a LIVE audience, aside from small army of techs & hangers-on.
Haven't seen ratings, but was broadcast live on most if not all networks. Plus views on youtube & etc.0 -
As noted on the previous thread, you can still back Biden and Trump at 1.02 to be nominated as their parties' candidates.0
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Yes my bad I assumed it was a reply to something in the last threadBenpointer said:
Read the thread headerPagan2 said:
You could perhaps give a clue what you are referring to?SeaShantyIrish2 said:"without an audience"
Without a LIVE audience, aside from small army of techs & hangers-on.
Haven't seen ratings, but was broadcast live on most if not all networks. Plus views on youtube & etc.0 -
Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.0
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I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
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Fair pointSeaShantyIrish2 said:"without an audience"
Without a LIVE audience, aside from small army of techs & hangers-on.
Haven't seen ratings, but was broadcast live on most if not all networks. Plus views on youtube & etc.0 -
OP: As for Trump I like the pic above ... He’s a bald as I am.
I know they are wearing masks but I don't think that is Donald Trump standing next to Joe Biden. I'm not even sure it is a man.
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No, I think it goes back to WWII, so predates those by at least a decade.eristdoof said:
But that must itself be a pun on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tricyclic_antidepressantFoxy said:
Rhyming slang for psychiatrist.eristdoof said:
Isn't a trick-cyclist a slang name for an anti-depressant, or do you use the same nickname for those taking it?Foxy said:
Strangely, it seems very poorly correlated with what I would asses as risk, particularly weighed against the conditions that I see them for. More to do with precovid personality traits.another_richard said:
Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?Foxy said:
Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.Black_Rook said:
And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.Northern_Al said:
I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.MaxPB said:
I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".rural_voter said:
The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).rottenborough said:
" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "MaxPB said:I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".
Telegraph
The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.
Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.
*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.
Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?
One of our trick-cyclists told me that the national suicide rate is up 25% on last year.0 -
This Republican reaction was both amusing and telling.
Howard Kurtz: Kamala Harris 'getting walk on water coverage' by media after VP pick
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/511885-howard-kurtz-kamala-harris-getting-walk-on-water-coverage-by-media-after-vp0 -
Cockney rhyming slang, I believe.Nigelb said:
No, I think it goes back to WWII, so predates those by at least a decade.eristdoof said:
But that must itself be a pun on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tricyclic_antidepressantFoxy said:
Rhyming slang for psychiatrist.eristdoof said:
Isn't a trick-cyclist a slang name for an anti-depressant, or do you use the same nickname for those taking it?Foxy said:
Strangely, it seems very poorly correlated with what I would asses as risk, particularly weighed against the conditions that I see them for. More to do with precovid personality traits.another_richard said:
Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?Foxy said:
Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.Black_Rook said:
And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.Northern_Al said:
I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.MaxPB said:
I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".rural_voter said:
The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).rottenborough said:
" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "MaxPB said:I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".
Telegraph
The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.
Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.
*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.
Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?
One of our trick-cyclists told me that the national suicide rate is up 25% on last year.0 -
I think they were hoping for a less seasoned politician. Harris is pro, through and through. They were hoping for a ultra-lefty and a flake.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
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It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!0 -
Martin Kettle reckons it's because they can't think of anything really to throw at her.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
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I hope Trump loses.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/johnson-says-irish-sea-border-over-my-dead-body-as-checks-loom
Does he know what he signed?0 -
Easily done - apologies, my response was unnecessarily terse.Pagan2 said:
Yes my bad I assumed it was a reply to something in the last threadBenpointer said:
Read the thread headerPagan2 said:
You could perhaps give a clue what you are referring to?SeaShantyIrish2 said:"without an audience"
Without a LIVE audience, aside from small army of techs & hangers-on.
Haven't seen ratings, but was broadcast live on most if not all networks. Plus views on youtube & etc.
Trying (unsuccessfully) to multitask.0 -
The whole world outside of the US and Russia will go into meltdown.Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!2 -
OT: "As for Trump I like the pic above which was flagged up on the previous thread. He’s a bald as I am."
Wow! That. Is. Real. Bald!!!0 -
No surprise it hasn't moved the betting. I doubt it has moved many, if any, votes.
The safe, dull choice.
As indeed is Biden.0 -
I doubt it, I think personally what the 4 years of Trump has shown is it no longer matters that much who is us president.eristdoof said:
The whole world outside of the US and Russia will go into meltdown.Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!0 -
"Alastair Stewart
We’ve failed the class of 2020" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-ve-failed-the-class-of-20200 -
That is what I meant. Her nomination seems to have caught Trump unawares yet they've had months to devise and test attack lines. With Trump calling Harris "nasty" and @TSE's post about Pizzagate, it must have been the alt-right who were backing Hillary Clinton to get the job.rottenborough said:
Martin Kettle reckons it's because they can't think of anything really to throw at her.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
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He's kind of running down the clock, which I think is a sensible strategy. There must be some danger of a reaction if he is seen to be getting too far ahead in the polls at this stage.dixiedean said:No surprise it hasn't moved the betting. I doubt it has moved many, if any, votes.
The safe, dull choice.
As indeed is Biden.0 -
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Re impact of Pamela Harris selection on polling, as noted PT presidential nominee typically gets a polling bump when they announce their choice for Vice President.
For two reasons:
1) guaranteed big-time media coverage; and
2) first presidential-level, public decision.
Some will like the pick, some will not, truth is most don't care all that much BUT virtually every likely voter will hear that a clear, definite choice was made.
PLUS it's a clear signal, esp. to less politically-obsessed (that is sane) part of the population that we are fast approaching presidential-election crunch time.0 -
They could claim that because her parents come from the Caribbean and India then she probably prefers cricket to baseball.rottenborough said:
Martin Kettle reckons it's because they can't think of anything really to throw at her.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
That will swing a couple of million votes.1 -
Apols for re-posting but this great photo seems to have dropped off the header:
Trump's clearly got the wind up 0 -
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!0 -
"Pamela Harris" - who had any money on her, eh?SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re impact of Pamela Harris selection on polling, as noted PT presidential nominee typically gets a polling bump when they announce their choice for Vice President.
For two reasons:
1) guaranteed big-time media coverage; and
2) first presidential-level, public decision.
Some will like the pick, some will not, truth is most don't care all that much BUT virtually every likely voter will hear that a clear, definite choice was made.
PLUS it's a clear signal, esp. to less politically-obsessed (that is sane) part of the population that we are fast approaching presidential-election crunch time.
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I had her in a double with Sir Keith Starmer.Benpointer said:
"Pamela Harris" - who had any money on her, eh?SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re impact of Pamela Harris selection on polling, as noted PT presidential nominee typically gets a polling bump when they announce their choice for Vice President.
For two reasons:
1) guaranteed big-time media coverage; and
2) first presidential-level, public decision.
Some will like the pick, some will not, truth is most don't care all that much BUT virtually every likely voter will hear that a clear, definite choice was made.
PLUS it's a clear signal, esp. to less politically-obsessed (that is sane) part of the population that we are fast approaching presidential-election crunch time.0 -
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!0 -
Exams thing is a typical example of this lot making a mountain out of a molehill.
Got Williamson to go on and insult a lot of students and then got MPs to say the situation was fair when it obviously isn’t and then insisting they won’t do anything.0 -
Lol! I'd love to understand how wide your definition of the 'hard left' is.Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!0 -
'Pamela Harris is a Democratic politician who was a member of the New York State Assembly representing the 46th Assembly District from 2015 to 2018, covering the neighborhoods of Bath Beach, Bay Ridge, Brighton Beach, Coney Island, Dyker Heights, and Seagate, in Brooklyn, until she resigned under a fraud indictment.'Benpointer said:
"Pamela Harris" - who had any money on her, eh?SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re impact of Pamela Harris selection on polling, as noted PT presidential nominee typically gets a polling bump when they announce their choice for Vice President.
For two reasons:
1) guaranteed big-time media coverage; and
2) first presidential-level, public decision.
Some will like the pick, some will not, truth is most don't care all that much BUT virtually every likely voter will hear that a clear, definite choice was made.
PLUS it's a clear signal, esp. to less politically-obsessed (that is sane) part of the population that we are fast approaching presidential-election crunch time.
If it wasn't for the fraud, she could have been a contender!0 -
Lots of 'em on here!Benpointer said:
Lol! I'd love to understand how wide your definition of the 'hard left' is.Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Are you one of them? Do you support LAB or Layla?0 -
Today baseball in United States is dying on its feet. Aside from Latin Caribbean communities, fewer and fewer Americans play, watch or give a crap about baseball. Demographics are NOT favorable, nor are self-inflicted wounds such as stolen World Series AND moronic responses to COVID including whining about salaries, refusal of owners & players to bargain in anything approaching good faith AND lack of basic public health discipline (later in marked contrast to National Basketball Association).SandyRentool said:
They could claim that because her parents come from the Caribbean and India then she probably prefers cricket to baseball.rottenborough said:
Martin Kettle reckons it's because they can't think of anything really to throw at her.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
That will swing a couple of million votes.0 -
As usual Keir said how awful it is but did not propose a constructive alternative.CorrectHorseBattery said:Exams thing is a typical example of this lot making a mountain out of a molehill.
Got Williamson to go on and insult a lot of students and then got MPs to say the situation was fair when it obviously isn’t and then insisting they won’t do anything.
Maybe he will send a letter to Gavin
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Yes I agree Mike. Kamala Harris was impressive, much more so than I expected.1
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Clearly you do NOT know the horrible truth re: NY state legislature, at least until VERY recently. To put it mildly, the days when either house in Albany was a nursery for future greatness (Theodore Roosevelt, Al Smith, Franklin Roosevelt) are LONG past.SandyRentool said:
'Pamela Harris is a Democratic politician who was a member of the New York State Assembly representing the 46th Assembly District from 2015 to 2018, covering the neighborhoods of Bath Beach, Bay Ridge, Brighton Beach, Coney Island, Dyker Heights, and Seagate, in Brooklyn, until she resigned under a fraud indictment.'Benpointer said:
"Pamela Harris" - who had any money on her, eh?SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re impact of Pamela Harris selection on polling, as noted PT presidential nominee typically gets a polling bump when they announce their choice for Vice President.
For two reasons:
1) guaranteed big-time media coverage; and
2) first presidential-level, public decision.
Some will like the pick, some will not, truth is most don't care all that much BUT virtually every likely voter will hear that a clear, definite choice was made.
PLUS it's a clear signal, esp. to less politically-obsessed (that is sane) part of the population that we are fast approaching presidential-election crunch time.
If it wasn't for the fraud, she could have been a contender!0 -
Mature post. Did you need to call people Remoaners?Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Just like the gammon thing yesterday, these terms need to go.
You just look immature.0 -
I keep making that mistake! Mea culpa to PBers AND the Hon. Kamala!!Benpointer said:
"Pamela Harris" - who had any money on her, eh?SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re impact of Pamela Harris selection on polling, as noted PT presidential nominee typically gets a polling bump when they announce their choice for Vice President.
For two reasons:
1) guaranteed big-time media coverage; and
2) first presidential-level, public decision.
Some will like the pick, some will not, truth is most don't care all that much BUT virtually every likely voter will hear that a clear, definite choice was made.
PLUS it's a clear signal, esp. to less politically-obsessed (that is sane) part of the population that we are fast approaching presidential-election crunch time.0 -
Harris is the safe pick, she has enough about her that people will for for the bottom of the ticket in case Biden really does shit the bed in the debates, the campaign will become - vote Biden to get Harris in 4 years (or fewer).1
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Oh I am sure I would qualify in your book but it's not how I would describe myself.Ave_it said:
Lots of 'em on here!Benpointer said:
Lol! I'd love to understand how wide your definition of the 'hard left' is.Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Are you one of them? Do you support LAB or Layla?0 -
You'd better get your leader to send me a hard letter telling me off!CorrectHorseBattery said:
Mature post. Did you need to call people Remoaners?Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Just like the gammon thing yesterday, these terms need to go.
You just look immature. 0 -
I don't claim insight - I just googled the name!SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Clearly you do NOT know the horrible truth re: NY state legislature, at least until VERY recently. To put it mildly, the days when either house in Albany was a nursery for future greatness (Theodore Roosevelt, Al Smith, Franklin Roosevelt) are LONG past.SandyRentool said:
'Pamela Harris is a Democratic politician who was a member of the New York State Assembly representing the 46th Assembly District from 2015 to 2018, covering the neighborhoods of Bath Beach, Bay Ridge, Brighton Beach, Coney Island, Dyker Heights, and Seagate, in Brooklyn, until she resigned under a fraud indictment.'Benpointer said:
"Pamela Harris" - who had any money on her, eh?SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re impact of Pamela Harris selection on polling, as noted PT presidential nominee typically gets a polling bump when they announce their choice for Vice President.
For two reasons:
1) guaranteed big-time media coverage; and
2) first presidential-level, public decision.
Some will like the pick, some will not, truth is most don't care all that much BUT virtually every likely voter will hear that a clear, definite choice was made.
PLUS it's a clear signal, esp. to less politically-obsessed (that is sane) part of the population that we are fast approaching presidential-election crunch time.
If it wasn't for the fraud, she could have been a contender!0 -
Ave_it is the anti-Kinablu. If you want to know what working class England is thinking then pay attention in that same way that if you want to know what Guardian readers are thinking you pay attention to what Kinablu is saying.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Mature post. Did you need to call people Remoaners?Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Just like the gammon thing yesterday, these terms need to go.
You just look immature.1 -
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New pic in the header?0
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She went to High School in Canada. And in Montreal too.SandyRentool said:
They could claim that because her parents come from the Caribbean and India then she probably prefers cricket to baseball.rottenborough said:
Martin Kettle reckons it's because they can't think of anything really to throw at her.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
That will swing a couple of million votes.
So a French socialist.0 -
0
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And the hypocrisy about drug use.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Today baseball in United States is dying on its feet. Aside from Latin Caribbean communities, fewer and fewer Americans play, watch or give a crap about baseball. Demographics are NOT favorable, nor are self-inflicted wounds such as stolen World Series AND moronic responses to COVID including whining about salaries, refusal of owners & players to bargain in anything approaching good faith AND lack of basic public health discipline (later in marked contrast to National Basketball Association).SandyRentool said:
They could claim that because her parents come from the Caribbean and India then she probably prefers cricket to baseball.rottenborough said:
Martin Kettle reckons it's because they can't think of anything really to throw at her.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
That will swing a couple of million votes.0 -
Looks like Greece and Turkey are shaping up for a bit of a war.0
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You really need to ask?Anabobazina said:0 -
Darren Trump and Maxine Pence will make worthy opponents.DecrepiterJohnL said:
I had her in a double with Sir Keith Starmer.Benpointer said:
"Pamela Harris" - who had any money on her, eh?SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re impact of Pamela Harris selection on polling, as noted PT presidential nominee typically gets a polling bump when they announce their choice for Vice President.
For two reasons:
1) guaranteed big-time media coverage; and
2) first presidential-level, public decision.
Some will like the pick, some will not, truth is most don't care all that much BUT virtually every likely voter will hear that a clear, definite choice was made.
PLUS it's a clear signal, esp. to less politically-obsessed (that is sane) part of the population that we are fast approaching presidential-election crunch time.1 -
Although being a nice person I have nothing personally against Kinabalu!MaxPB said:
Ave_it is the anti-Kinablu. If you want to know what working class England is thinking then pay attention in that same way that if you want to know what Guardian readers are thinking you pay attention to what Kinablu is saying.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Mature post. Did you need to call people Remoaners?Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Just like the gammon thing yesterday, these terms need to go.
You just look immature.0 -
I'm not attacking his point, I am attacking the completely unnecessary use of Remoaners. We're having an educated discussion and these words just cheapen the point.MaxPB said:
Ave_it is the anti-Kinablu. If you want to know what working class England is thinking then pay attention in that same way that if you want to know what Guardian readers are thinking you pay attention to what Kinablu is saying.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Mature post. Did you need to call people Remoaners?Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Just like the gammon thing yesterday, these terms need to go.
You just look immature.
Just as I had a go at people doing the same with gammon yesterday.0 -
0
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Nope.MaxPB said:
Ave_it is the anti-Kinablu. If you want to know what working class England is thinking then pay attention in that same way that if you want to know what Guardian readers are thinking you pay attention to what Kinablu is saying.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Mature post. Did you need to call people Remoaners?Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Just like the gammon thing yesterday, these terms need to go.
You just look immature.
Ave-it reflects a sub-set of working-class England for sure (and a sub-set of middle and upper-class England for that matter) but working-class England is not homogenous and plenty of it would fit in Ave-it's 'hard left' category.0 -
I've got nothing against most either, I hope nobody thinks they do. Apart from a very select couple of users who have been particularly rude to me and have never apologised, I have nothing against anyone else. I could hardly when I've been objectionable before.1
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“I don’t really like Trump but...” is the new calling card of those who don’t really care about anything other than upsetting “lefties” and “remoaners”.
They would love Trump to win.3 -
0
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So Trump then?Ave_it said:0 -
Presumably she is French speaker then? Dangerous.dixiedean said:
She went to High School in Canada. And in Montreal too.SandyRentool said:
They could claim that because her parents come from the Caribbean and India then she probably prefers cricket to baseball.rottenborough said:
Martin Kettle reckons it's because they can't think of anything really to throw at her.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
That will swing a couple of million votes.
So a French socialist.0 -
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I think you might be overegging their role as bellwethers just a teensy bit Max!!MaxPB said:
Ave_it is the anti-Kinablu. If you want to know what working class England is thinking then pay attention in that same way that if you want to know what Guardian readers are thinking you pay attention to what Kinablu is saying.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Mature post. Did you need to call people Remoaners?Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Just like the gammon thing yesterday, these terms need to go.
You just look immature.0 -
Ave it reflects the broad centre moderate social liberal outlook across Britain.Benpointer said:
Nope.MaxPB said:
Ave_it is the anti-Kinablu. If you want to know what working class England is thinking then pay attention in that same way that if you want to know what Guardian readers are thinking you pay attention to what Kinablu is saying.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Mature post. Did you need to call people Remoaners?Ave_it said:
This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!DavidL said:
Of which year?Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
Just like the gammon thing yesterday, these terms need to go.
You just look immature.
Ave-it reflects a sub-set of working-class England for sure (and a sub-set of middle and upper-class England for that matter) but working-class England is not homogenous and plenty of it would fit in Ave-it's 'hard left' category.0 -
Well if you want to know what a former Corbynite and Labour member thinks, don't ask me 0
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I'm not sure I have suggested that those individuals are 'hard left'.Anabobazina said:@Ave_it such as those well-known ‘hard lefties’ @MaxPB , @Casino_Royale and @Richard_Tyndall ?
At least not as far as I can recall!0 -
Yes - as an adjunct to the Trumpsky campaign.Ave_it said:
For example, KW's petition signatures to qualify for Wisconsin general election ballot were gathered by Republican operatives.
Who also methinks helped engineer nomination of a lefty woman as Libertarian Party nominee.0 -
It’s the “the remoaners won’t accept Brexit” tendency - the culture war is more important to them than the policy itself.Gallowgate said:“I don’t really like Trump but...” is the new calling card of those who don’t really care about anything other than upsetting “lefties” and “remoaners”.
They would love Trump to win.
Most remoaners (including me) have all but forgotten about bloody Brexit!0 -
On topic, surely it was already priced into the odds that the choice would either be Harris or someone (like Rice) who would be broadly as effective second on the ticket?
Only a surprise choice (either one deemed an inspired game-changer or an act of madness) would have moved the odds.
FWIW, I think Harris is a sensible, fairly safe choice. She is a more than capable public performer; she has a reasonably strong back story to drive turnout among groups who are strongly Democrat leaning without alienating independents; she is unlikely to have skeletons in the closet given she's been a major public figure for years; and she is well qualified to be President should that be required. Lots of ticks in lots of boxes.
Biden could have chosen the likes of Stacy Abrahams or Gretchen Whitmer who are less widely known. People would go "oh, that's interesting" and it might either help him a lot or harm him a lot. But he doesn't need to change the dynamics of the race because he has a not massive but pretty decent lead. And he quite sensibly didn't.
EDIT: Although if he loses narrowly, deciding not to change the dynamics of the race will, with hindsight, be deemed an awful mistake. But hindsight's 20/20. Playing the odds, he's sensible.2 -
In a just world this young lady would be considerably better known than Greta Thunberg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPxjW8o7Kls
0 -
Almost certainly she will have some ability.Anabobazina said:
Presumably she is French speaker then? Dangerous.dixiedean said:
She went to High School in Canada. And in Montreal too.SandyRentool said:
They could claim that because her parents come from the Caribbean and India then she probably prefers cricket to baseball.rottenborough said:
Martin Kettle reckons it's because they can't think of anything really to throw at her.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
That will swing a couple of million votes.
So a French socialist.
She wouldn't have graduated in Quebec without it.0 -
I'm going to a pub tomorrow.
I might have gammon with egg and chips. But obviously not with pineapple.0 -
And when he loses. It'll be PARTY TIME.Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
See you there.0 -
Why can't both be well known?houndtang said:In a just world this young lady would be considerably better known than Greta Thunberg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPxjW8o7Kls0 -
Could be helpful in winning the 2nd CD Maine EV, as she can appeal to Francophone voters in Aristook County in their native tongue.Anabobazina said:
Presumably she is French speaker then? Dangerous.dixiedean said:
She went to High School in Canada. And in Montreal too.SandyRentool said:
They could claim that because her parents come from the Caribbean and India then she probably prefers cricket to baseball.rottenborough said:
Martin Kettle reckons it's because they can't think of anything really to throw at her.DecrepiterJohnL said:Considering "everyone knew" it would be Kamala Harris, the Trump team seemed oddly unprepared for her nomination.
That will swing a couple of million votes.
So a French socialist.
Ditto with Haitian Americans in Florida, esp. in increasing their turnout.
Also among (older) Cajuns in south Louisiana, but doubt Pelican State is in play this year.0 -
I was wondering if you would appear!kinabalu said:
And when he loses. It'll be PARTY TIME.Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
See you there.
Let's see
3 Nov - I'll be here (hopefully)1 -
Some sort of anti-mask activist or is there more to it than that?houndtang said:In a just world this young lady would be considerably better known than Greta Thunberg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPxjW8o7Kls0 -
Reminds me of a song -Benpointer said:Apols for re-posting but this great photo seems to have dropped off the header:
Trump's clearly got the wind up
As I walk along the Bois de Boulogne
With an independent hair1 -
Took more than a few months to build the United States Postal System, and will take more than a few months to destroy it.Alistair said:
Given that he is destroying the postal system that is overwhelmingly going to be used by Dems to vote he is in with a chance.Ave_it said:Can Trump still do it?
The 2016-2020 double??
In last few weeks, did well enough here in King County, WA to handle over half a million ballots returned by voters via the mail (over 200k were returned via drop boxes).
Delivery WAS slower than pre-COVID with respect to political campaign mail. BUT delivery and return of actual ballots for August 2020 WA State primary was for vast majority of voters both timely and efficient.0 -
Was that the White Rabbit? The one made famous by Grace Slick & Jefferson Airplane?Tim_B said:
Reminds me of a song -Benpointer said:Apols for re-posting but this great photo seems to have dropped off the header:
Trump's clearly got the wind up
As I walk along the Bois de Boulogne
With an independent hair0 -
If Trump is not careful, it will be his own support he undermines. Senior citizens are more likely to vote Republican and by post.Alistair said:
Given that he is destroying the postal system that is overwhelmingly going to be used by Dems to vote he is in with a chance.Ave_it said:Can Trump still do it?
The 2016-2020 double??0 -
Not the most insightful post you've ever done. Trump has been utterly toxic on several levels.Pagan2 said:
I doubt it, I think personally what the 4 years of Trump has shown is it no longer matters that much who is us president.eristdoof said:
The whole world outside of the US and Russia will go into meltdown.Ave_it said:
It's ok I don't bother with betting!Pagan2 said:
I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statisticallyAve_it said:
But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!0 -
I don't care actually because i don't think who is president actually matters anymore. Trump showed the world that they can work around whoever it isAnabobazina said:0 -
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1294015823292575750/photo/1
Telegraph got the young girls it wanted0 -
She descends into conspiracy theory halfway through but the first half is an interesting skit on risk vs livelihood. She’s a good speaker. I dare say we will see more of her as a lightning rod for the incarcerated youth.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Some sort of anti-mask activist or is there more to it than that?houndtang said:In a just world this young lady would be considerably better known than Greta Thunberg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPxjW8o7Kls0 -
I am not pro trump by any means i think the guy is a complete dick. I was anti hilary admittedly but that was personalBenpointer said:
You really need to ask?Anabobazina said:0 -
Let's hope. The way he is attacking voting rights is disgusting. Hopefully Biden manages to sweep 40-45 states with big victories.DecrepiterJohnL said:
If Trump is not careful, it will be his own support he undermines. Senior citizens are more likely to vote Republican and by post.Alistair said:
Given that he is destroying the postal system that is overwhelmingly going to be used by Dems to vote he is in with a chance.Ave_it said:Can Trump still do it?
The 2016-2020 double??1
This discussion has been closed.