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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far the Kamala Harris announcement hasn’t impacted on the W

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Apols for re-posting but this great photo seems to have dropped off the header:

    image

    Trump's clearly got the wind up :smile:

    Reminds me of a song -

    As I walk along the Bois de Boulogne
    With an independent hair
    Was that the White Rabbit? The one made famous by Grace Slick & Jefferson Airplane?
    Nope - it was "the man who broke the bank at Monte Carlo", an old music hall song Featured in 1962 film Lawrence of Arabia, sung by Lawrence on a camel.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757


    It's like when Watson explains to Holmes that the earth goes round the sun.

    "This is a three-blog problem."
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    This government is really pushing the boundaries of incompetence.
  • On topic, surely it was already priced into the odds that the choice would either be Harris or someone (like Rice) who would be broadly as effective second on the ticket?

    Only a surprise choice (either one deemed an inspired game-changer or an act of madness) would have moved the odds.

    FWIW, I think Harris is a sensible, fairly safe choice. She is a more than capable public performer; she has a reasonably strong back story to drive turnout among groups who are strongly Democrat leaning without alienating independents; she is unlikely to have skeletons in the closet given she's been a major public figure for years; and she is well qualified to be President should that be required. Lots of ticks in lots of boxes.

    Biden could have chosen the likes of Stacy Abrahams or Gretchen Whitmer who are less widely known. People would go "oh, that's interesting" and it might either help him a lot or harm him a lot. But he doesn't need to change the dynamics of the race because he has a not massive but pretty decent lead. And he quite sensibly didn't.

    EDIT: Although if he loses narrowly, deciding not to change the dynamics of the race will, with hindsight, be deemed an awful mistake. But hindsight's 20/20. Playing the odds, he's sensible.

    Making history by picking a Black woman running mate is quite enough risk for anyone.

    Personally like that Joe Biden has vindicated his Celtic cred, by picking the very woman who damn near knocked his block off in that most memorable debate.

    IF that ain't showing yer Irish, then what the feck is?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213
    I think Biden will be an appalling President. But Trump is a threat to the US Constitution and to democracy.

    I'd rather have someone I disagreed with on every substantive issue who respected the ballot box than a leader who I agreed with on everything who did not.

    Democracies work because you can throw out people who perform poorly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    No, this is the one thing the government has got right, I say that while being in Italy and potentially caught by a new quarantine. If anything it should be tougher with a traffic light system and no travel from red list countries like America, Brazil and India with quarantine reserved for amber countries like France and Portugal etc...
  • I did say this morning this announcement was very likely and is not unexpected
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    DavidL said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Can Trump still do it?

    The 2016-2020 double??

    If I was going to bet on this and its far to troubled a market to bother I would put money on trump. I don't see him losing to biden to be honest
    On this we agree!
    I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statistically
    It's ok I don't bother with betting!

    But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
    Of which year?
    This year plus 4 more years of whinging by the hard left - a bit like remoaners on here!
    Mature post. Did you need to call people Remoaners?

    Just like the gammon thing yesterday, these terms need to go.

    You just look immature.
    Ave_it is the anti-Kinablu. If you want to know what working class England is thinking then pay attention in that same way that if you want to know what Guardian readers are thinking you pay attention to what Kinablu is saying.
    I'm not attacking his point, I am attacking the completely unnecessary use of Remoaners. We're having an educated discussion and these words just cheapen the point.

    Just as I had a go at people doing the same with gammon yesterday.
    You did too! Ticking off for me very much included.

    The G word does not sit well in the new era of Starmer. On this we can agree.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Monkeys said:



    It's like when Watson explains to Holmes that the earth goes round the sun.

    "This is a three-blog problem."

    That would actually be a good political joke given the Lib Dems have taken about 47 years to pick a new leader.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Can Trump still do it?

    The 2016-2020 double??

    If I was going to bet on this and its far to troubled a market to bother I would put money on trump. I don't see him losing to biden to be honest
    On this we agree!
    Who do you and @Pagan2 want to win?
    You really need to ask?
    I am not pro trump by any means i think the guy is a complete dick. I was anti hilary admittedly but that was personal
    Believing Trumsky will win in 2020, is NOT the same thing as supporting that outcome.

    IF anyone could pull it off, it's him. BUT still think he will NOT because he's wedded to his past wining strategy this year, the way the French high command in 1940 was weDded to their previous winning strategy.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    MaxPB said:

    Monkeys said:



    It's like when Watson explains to Holmes that the earth goes round the sun.

    "This is a three-blog problem."

    That would actually be a good political joke given the Lib Dems have taken about 47 years to pick a new leader.
    Only two weeks to go apparently. Two more weeks to Layla.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    rcs1000 said:

    I think Biden will be an appalling President. But Trump is a threat to the US Constitution and to democracy.

    I'd rather have someone I disagreed with on every substantive issue who respected the ballot box than a leader who I agreed with on everything who did not.

    Democracies work because you can throw out people who perform poorly.

    @Ave_it will be filing you under 'Hard left' :wink:
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    rcs1000 said:

    I think Biden will be an appalling President. But Trump is a threat to the US Constitution and to democracy.

    I'd rather have someone I disagreed with on every substantive issue who respected the ballot box than a leader who I agreed with on everything who did not.

    Democracies work because you can throw out people who perform poorly.

    I think Biden would be alright, but Trump is on the cusp of causing permanent damage to the political system in the US*, and the US reputation abroad. I'd like to see Trump jailed but will settle for him being booted out of the Whitehouse.

    * Which is now clearly in a shocking mess with safeguards that are mostly effective only in theory rather than in practice.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2020
    ...
    Two close members of my family work, or worked, in London Schools and it is hardly a secret that quality of students work is not the sole driver of the marks teachers give. Kids don't get to do subjects they might not pass in.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Not sure they still use the blood of virgins for newspaper ink these days, I think it's frowned upon.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Jonathan said:

    This government is really pushing the boundaries of incompetence.


    There are no boundaries where this government and incompetence are concerned.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think Biden will be an appalling President. But Trump is a threat to the US Constitution and to democracy.

    I'd rather have someone I disagreed with on every substantive issue who respected the ballot box than a leader who I agreed with on everything who did not.

    Democracies work because you can throw out people who perform poorly.

    One of the odder things is how the DC Republicans have gone along with Trump.

    I am remember when Lindsey Graham was regularly denounced as a RINO yet he has morphed into a Trump cheerleader.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Trump. Campaign has decided on another round of Birtherism for Kamala is the answer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Can Trump still do it?

    The 2016-2020 double??

    If I was going to bet on this and its far to troubled a market to bother I would put money on trump. I don't see him losing to biden to be honest
    On this we agree!
    Who do you and @Pagan2 want to win?
    You really need to ask?
    I am not pro trump by any means i think the guy is a complete dick. I was anti hilary admittedly but that was personal
    Believing Trumsky will win in 2020, is NOT the same thing as supporting that outcome.

    IF anyone could pull it off, it's him. BUT still think he will NOT because he's wedded to his past wining strategy this year, the way the French high command in 1940 was weDded to their previous winning strategy.
    I tend to agree with this. His playbook for 2020 is "don't let radical leftists win the White House". And I'm sure it will work with some people, but it's an easier pitch if Warren or Sanders it the nominee, than when it's a Biden / Harris ticket.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Indeed. Utterly ridiculous and there are now presumably hundreds of thousands of British holidaymakers in France wondering WTF they are supposed to do now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The link some people have between Trump and Brexit is fascinating. It is almost as if they fear that if Trump is defeated then Brexit will be cancelled.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    isam said:

    ...

    Two close members of my family work, or worked, in London Schools and it is hardly a secret that quality of students work is not the sole driver of the marks teachers give. Kids don't get to do subjects they might not pass in.
    My school didn't allow anyone to take the A-level without an A*/A at GCSE. The risk of anything below a B was too high. I know in upper sixth students who got lower than a B were unenrolled and if they wanted to continue they had to go to a sixth form college and transfer their existing modules.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    rcs1000 said:

    I think Biden will be an appalling President. But Trump is a threat to the US Constitution and to democracy.

    I'd rather have someone I disagreed with on every substantive issue who respected the ballot box than a leader who I agreed with on everything who did not.

    Democracies work because you can throw out people who perform poorly.

    Appalling in what ways exactly?
  • Alistair said:

    The link some people have between Trump and Brexit is fascinating. It is almost as if they fear that if Trump is defeated then Brexit will be cancelled.

    Brexit can't be cancelled. We already left.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think Biden will be an appalling President. But Trump is a threat to the US Constitution and to democracy.

    I'd rather have someone I disagreed with on every substantive issue who respected the ballot box than a leader who I agreed with on everything who did not.

    Democracies work because you can throw out people who perform poorly.

    Biden has potential to be an above-average president, thanks in large measure to the depth and breadth of his experience in US Senate, including as chairman of the Judiciary and Foreign Affairs committees.

    IF 2020 results in his election as President, along with small Democratic US Senate and slightly enlarged Democratic US House majority, then Biden would be in a strong position in early 2021. Think he could also work with Congress if Republicans retain thin US Senate majority.
  • I think at worst Biden makes very little change but at least he'll look and talk like an actual man rather than a fat baby
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    rcs1000 said:

    I think Biden will be an appalling President. But Trump is a threat to the US Constitution and to democracy.

    I'd rather have someone I disagreed with on every substantive issue who respected the ballot box than a leader who I agreed with on everything who did not.

    Democracies work because you can throw out people who perform poorly.

    One of the odder things is how the DC Republicans have gone along with Trump.

    I am remember when Lindsey Graham was regularly denounced as a RINO yet he has morphed into a Trump cheerleader.
    The GOP has gone so raving nuts that they now denounce right-wing neo-con hawks like John Bolton as RINOs.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    You know that you're getting old when you fancy the mothers rather than the 6th formers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    rcs1000 said:

    I think Biden will be an appalling President. But Trump is a threat to the US Constitution and to democracy.

    I'd rather have someone I disagreed with on every substantive issue who respected the ballot box than a leader who I agreed with on everything who did not.

    Democracies work because you can throw out people who perform poorly.

    Appalling in what ways exactly?
    He's mentally deficient.
  • kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eristdoof said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Can Trump still do it?

    The 2016-2020 double??

    If I was going to bet on this and its far to troubled a market to bother I would put money on trump. I don't see him losing to biden to be honest
    On this we agree!
    I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statistically
    It's ok I don't bother with betting!

    But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
    The whole world outside of the US and Russia will go into meltdown.
    I doubt it, I think personally what the 4 years of Trump has shown is it no longer matters that much who is us president.
    Not the most insightful post you've ever done. Trump has been utterly toxic on several levels.
    I disagree.

    Not about Trump but your suggestion that because this year's 18 year olds are missing out on the life experience of exams they deserve better grades.

    Without the exams they will be softer and with better grades than they have earned they will have an excessive belief in their own abilities and/or a sense of self-entitlement.

    Both are dangerous and especially so in the increasingly difficult world that generation will face.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Indeed. Utterly ridiculous and there are now presumably hundreds of thousands of British holidaymakers in France wondering WTF they are supposed to do now.
    Obviously totally expected, but realistically if the decision was “finely balanced” there really is no serious reason why an extra couple of days couldn’t have been granted. It’s almost as if it’s been timed specifically to catch people travelling back at the weekend, and will probably result in far more chaos with people not socially distancing at airports etc than a more staggered allowance for returnees.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think Biden will be an appalling President. But Trump is a threat to the US Constitution and to democracy.

    I'd rather have someone I disagreed with on every substantive issue who respected the ballot box than a leader who I agreed with on everything who did not.

    Democracies work because you can throw out people who perform poorly.

    One of the odder things is how the DC Republicans have gone along with Trump.

    I am remember when Lindsey Graham was regularly denounced as a RINO yet he has morphed into a Trump cheerleader.
    AND now Lindsey is TIED in the polls with his Black Democratic challenger for US Senate, Jaime Harrison. In SOUTH CAROLINA.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited August 2020

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eristdoof said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Can Trump still do it?

    The 2016-2020 double??

    If I was going to bet on this and its far to troubled a market to bother I would put money on trump. I don't see him losing to biden to be honest
    On this we agree!
    I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statistically
    It's ok I don't bother with betting!

    But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
    The whole world outside of the US and Russia will go into meltdown.
    I doubt it, I think personally what the 4 years of Trump has shown is it no longer matters that much who is us president.
    Not the most insightful post you've ever done. Trump has been utterly toxic on several levels.
    I disagree.

    Not about Trump but your suggestion that because this year's 18 year olds are missing out on the life experience of exams they deserve better grades.

    Without the exams they will be softer and with better grades than they have earned they will have an excessive belief in their own abilities and/or a sense of self-entitlement.

    Both are dangerous and especially so in the increasingly difficult world that generation will face.
    "...an excessive belief in their own abilities and/or a sense of self-entitlement"

    Sounds like most private school kids to me!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Jonathan said:

    This government is really pushing the boundaries of incompetence.

    I do hope the ONS are going to prepare stats as to how many of those who quarantine on return from France actually get the virus.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Indeed. Utterly ridiculous and there are now presumably hundreds of thousands of British holidaymakers in France wondering WTF they are supposed to do now.
    Err. Perhaps they ought to have given it a modicum of thought before going?
    Boris Saves Summer!!! Get your holiday bargains!!!
    What will happen if I need to quarantine?
    This was always a distinct possibility.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719

    Looks like Greece and Turkey are shaping up for a bit of a war.

    One of my Greek colleagues spouse is in the Greek Coastguard. Tensions have been building for weeks it seems.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Indeed. Utterly ridiculous and there are now presumably hundreds of thousands of British holidaymakers in France wondering WTF they are supposed to do now.
    Run for the UK - they have until Sunday. Euro tunnel already complaining it will be chaos.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    My Aunt is on “le shuttle” as we speak on the way to France. Very amusing.
  • “I don’t really like Trump but...” is the new calling card of those who don’t really care about anything other than upsetting “lefties” and “remoaners”.

    They would love Trump to win.

    Some certainly.

    However some others do want Trump to lose but if he did win the 'wailing and rending of garments' would be a silver lining.

    As in most things there are many shades of grey between the extremes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    I think at worst Biden makes very little change but at least he'll look and talk like an actual man rather than a fat baby

    If I were a US citizen, I would certainly vote for Biden for that reason alone. As I'm not, I have to confess I really don't mind who wins. There's a naughty part of me that will be very amused if Trump does it again.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Jonathan said:

    This government is really pushing the boundaries of incompetence.

    I do hope the ONS are going to prepare stats as to how many of those who quarantine on return from France actually get the virus.
    To do that they'd have to know how many of those who return from France actually quarantine. Which of course they have no way of knowing.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Indeed. Utterly ridiculous and there are now presumably hundreds of thousands of British holidaymakers in France wondering WTF they are supposed to do now.
    Run for the UK - they have until Sunday. Euro tunnel already complaining it will be chaos.
    BBC says Saturday 4am?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    1499 today. Highest for 3 months.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Tim_B said:

    Apols for re-posting but this great photo seems to have dropped off the header:

    image

    Trump's clearly got the wind up :smile:

    Reminds me of a song -

    As I walk along the Bois de Boulogne
    With an independent hair
    Hair today, gone tomorrow,
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    dixiedean said:

    Err. Perhaps they ought to have given it a modicum of thought before going?
    Boris Saves Summer!!! Get your holiday bargains!!!
    What will happen if I need to quarantine?
    This was always a distinct possibility.

    People complaining about getting caught in a quarantine, ours or one in the place they are visiting, has only themselves to blame.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Alistair said:

    The link some people have between Trump and Brexit is fascinating. It is almost as if they fear that if Trump is defeated then Brexit will be cancelled.

    Culture war, baby.
    Trump being tonked would be the first step towards Greta Thunberg's eco trainers stamping on a somewhat flushed human face forever.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    I think at worst Biden makes very little change but at least he'll look and talk like an actual man rather than a fat baby

    If I were a US citizen, I would certainly vote for Biden for that reason alone. As I'm not, I have to confess I really don't mind who wins. There's a naughty part of me that will be very amused if Trump does it again.
    SSSSH you are not allowed to say that on here (last sentence)!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    That and the fact that lots of people have Covid without having any symptoms or having such minor symptoms they continue as normal. These days, these people are much more likely to be tested than they were in the spring. Hence a ‘rise’ in cases coupled with an attendant fall in hospitalisations. For most people, Covid is a whole lot of nowt.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    1499 today. Highest for 3 months.
    Look at New York and New Jersey deaths. Hardly any. They are at the same stage as Western Europe.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    1499 today. Highest for 3 months.
    Where did you see that? Worldometer is currently showing 918 for the UStoday ... but sadly, there's plenty of time for that to go well over 1000 again.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Alistair said:

    The link some people have between Trump and Brexit is fascinating. It is almost as if they fear that if Trump is defeated then Brexit will be cancelled.

    Culture war, baby.
    Trump being tonked would be the first step towards Greta Thunberg's eco trainers stamping on a somewhat flushed human face forever.
    Bring it on!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    1499 today. Highest for 3 months.
    Where did you see that? Worldometer is currently showing 918 for the UStoday ... but sadly, there's plenty of time for that to go well over 1000 again.
    Do the US apply a 28 day limit...?
  • kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eristdoof said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Can Trump still do it?

    The 2016-2020 double??

    If I was going to bet on this and its far to troubled a market to bother I would put money on trump. I don't see him losing to biden to be honest
    On this we agree!
    I wouldn't advise betting on my hunches mind I am basing it on I talk to a fair number of american friends over the course of a week and last time I thought based on that trump would win. This time he doesn't seem to have lost any that previously supported him and picked up a couple of pro hilary people. Its not a scientific sample by any means nor even big enough to deduce from statistically
    It's ok I don't bother with betting!

    But this site will go into meltdown on 3/4 Nov if Trump does win!
    The whole world outside of the US and Russia will go into meltdown.
    I doubt it, I think personally what the 4 years of Trump has shown is it no longer matters that much who is us president.
    Not the most insightful post you've ever done. Trump has been utterly toxic on several levels.
    I disagree.

    Not about Trump but your suggestion that because this year's 18 year olds are missing out on the life experience of exams they deserve better grades.

    Without the exams they will be softer and with better grades than they have earned they will have an excessive belief in their own abilities and/or a sense of self-entitlement.

    Both are dangerous and especially so in the increasingly difficult world that generation will face.
    "...an excessive belief in their own abilities and/or a sense of self-entitlement"

    Sounds like most private school kids to me!
    Especially if they go into politics :wink:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited August 2020
    alex_ said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Indeed. Utterly ridiculous and there are now presumably hundreds of thousands of British holidaymakers in France wondering WTF they are supposed to do now.
    Run for the UK - they have until Sunday. Euro tunnel already complaining it will be chaos.
    BBC says Saturday 4am?
    4.00am Saturday as far as I am aware

    However, HMG has been warning for weeks about foreign travel including France so I cannot see how anyone can complain.

    I have not heard but I assume this is UK wide
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Err. Perhaps they ought to have given it a modicum of thought before going?
    Boris Saves Summer!!! Get your holiday bargains!!!
    What will happen if I need to quarantine?
    This was always a distinct possibility.

    People complaining about getting caught in a quarantine, ours or one in the place they are visiting, has only themselves to blame.
    Indeed. Presumably they didn't go without travel insurance.
    So they were obviously aware that travel involves some form of risk. The idea that quarantine is an unforeseeable event in light of the only bloody topic of conversation for 5 months is for the birds.
  • Because I hope Biden wins, I've just been informed I'm actually a neoliberal Blairite scum and I should

    they're saying fuck off and join the Tories?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Because I hope Biden wins, I've just been informed I'm actually a neoliberal Blairite scum and I should

    they're saying fuck off and join the Tories?

    Welcome!
  • Jonathan said:

    This government is really pushing the boundaries of incompetence.

    I do hope the ONS are going to prepare stats as to how many of those who quarantine on return from France actually get the virus.
    I suspect its being done to stop any more going to those countries rather than about those already there.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Nigelb said:

    Tim_B said:

    Apols for re-posting but this great photo seems to have dropped off the header:

    image

    Trump's clearly got the wind up :smile:

    Reminds me of a song -

    As I walk along the Bois de Boulogne
    With an independent hair
    Hair today, gone tomorrow,
    a parting of the ways...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Just seen an FB post from a friend in the States. They have been given a "Covid trial injection of either vaccine or placebo....I spiked a 100.9 fever...at 48 hours I'm back to normal..."

    What?!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    1499 today. Highest for 3 months.
    Where did you see that? Worldometer is currently showing 918 for the UStoday ... but sadly, there's plenty of time for that to go well over 1000 again.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/coronavirus-trump-schools-us-deaths-covid
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    dixiedean said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Indeed. Utterly ridiculous and there are now presumably hundreds of thousands of British holidaymakers in France wondering WTF they are supposed to do now.
    Err. Perhaps they ought to have given it a modicum of thought before going?
    Boris Saves Summer!!! Get your holiday bargains!!!
    What will happen if I need to quarantine?
    This was always a distinct possibility.
    Wait, so it’s their fault for going to France even though it was perfectly legal to do so?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Does them a favour. Next academic year in HE will be chaos with this government in charge of the virus response.

    Who knows when you'll be allowed near a lecture theatre or sent home to quarantine or be stuck in the halls of residence for three months.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    I think at worst Biden makes very little change but at least he'll look and talk like an actual man rather than a fat baby

    If I were a US citizen, I would certainly vote for Biden for that reason alone. As I'm not, I have to confess I really don't mind who wins. There's a naughty part of me that will be very amused if Trump does it again.
    See back in early 2016 the idea that Trump winning would be a great laugh was how things got rolling on social media. Even places now as infamous as Reddit's banned /r/The_Donald subreddit were mainly in it for the laughs and memes. That even held through the primaries, nomination and up to the election. His "supporters" knew full well that Trump was an idiot unfit to hold any office, never mind the Presidency. But Trump did win, and the consequences have been disastrous because inevitably a crisis did arise and he has completey screwed-up. Sadly many of the people who thought it would be a laugh became true-believers and now forgive Trump doing all the same sort of things that they criticised Obama, Bush, and Clinton for.

    A second term would be a hoot in a high-budget HBO drama, a second term in the real world is simply too dangerous to countenance. I do not want to find out what Trump would do if God forbid it another "9/11" occured or something of that ilk.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Just seen an FB post from a friend in the States. They have been given a "Covid trial injection of either vaccine or placebo....I spiked a 100.9 fever...at 48 hours I'm back to normal..."

    What?!
    The Moderna vaccine had an alarmingly high severe side effect rate with the largest dose. Your friend may have got that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    1499 today. Highest for 3 months.
    Where did you see that? Worldometer is currently showing 918 for the UStoday ... but sadly, there's plenty of time for that to go well over 1000 again.
    Do the US apply a 28 day limit...?
    I was puzzled about the 28 day limit. Clearly, it makes no sense to include deaths from unrelated causes of those who tested positive at some stage in the past... but doesn't it often take a lot longer than 28 days from a positive test for someone to succumb to covid?

    For example, I watched this last night. Highly recommended, though it somewhat dented my Covid-bullishness.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000ljnb/surviving-the-virus-my-brother-me
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Just seen an FB post from a friend in the States. They have been given a "Covid trial injection of either vaccine or placebo....I spiked a 100.9 fever...at 48 hours I'm back to normal..."

    What?!
    The Moderna vaccine had an alarmingly high severe side effect rate with the largest dose. Your friend may have got that.
    How long before anyone knows if it works?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    “I don’t really like Trump but...” is the new calling card of those who don’t really care about anything other than upsetting “lefties” and “remoaners”.

    They would love Trump to win.

    Some certainly.

    However some others do want Trump to lose but if he did win the 'wailing and rending of garments' would be a silver lining.

    As in most things there are many shades of grey between the extremes.
    Where do you stand on this scale?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Because I hope Biden wins, I've just been informed I'm actually a neoliberal Blairite scum and I should

    they're saying fuck off and join the Tories?

    Who do they want to win?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Can anyone explain the logic of decisions that now come out of this government?

  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    Because I hope Biden wins, I've just been informed I'm actually a neoliberal Blairite scum and I should

    they're saying fuck off and join the Tories?

    Who do they want to win?
    Bernie/Corbyn purists who would rather lose than compromise would be my guess.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    dixiedean said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Indeed. Utterly ridiculous and there are now presumably hundreds of thousands of British holidaymakers in France wondering WTF they are supposed to do now.
    Err. Perhaps they ought to have given it a modicum of thought before going?
    Boris Saves Summer!!! Get your holiday bargains!!!
    What will happen if I need to quarantine?
    This was always a distinct possibility.
    Wait, so it’s their fault for going to France even though it was perfectly legal to do so?
    No. But it ought to have been part of their risk assessment. "Wondering what they are supposed to do now" should have been part of the thinking before leaving.
    It's perfectly legal to jump out of a plane. However I have little sympathy for those who don't use a parachute.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    I think at worst Biden makes very little change but at least he'll look and talk like an actual man rather than a fat baby

    If I were a US citizen, I would certainly vote for Biden for that reason alone. As I'm not, I have to confess I really don't mind who wins. There's a naughty part of me that will be very amused if Trump does it again.
    Trumpton
  • dixiedean said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Indeed. Utterly ridiculous and there are now presumably hundreds of thousands of British holidaymakers in France wondering WTF they are supposed to do now.
    Err. Perhaps they ought to have given it a modicum of thought before going?
    Boris Saves Summer!!! Get your holiday bargains!!!
    What will happen if I need to quarantine?
    This was always a distinct possibility.
    Wait, so it’s their fault for going to France even though it was perfectly legal to do so?
    HMG have been warning for weeks about foreign travel including France and that quarantine could be imposed at anytime

    Anyone travelling abroad took the risk and they are responsible for their own actions
  • Can anyone explain the logic of decisions that now come out of this government?

    Does the government want to move the news agenda on from exam results?

    Does the government think that moving the news agenda on makes a problem go away?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    Can anyone explain the logic of decisions that now come out of this government?

    Bad news about exam results.
    That's the logic.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Err. Perhaps they ought to have given it a modicum of thought before going?
    Boris Saves Summer!!! Get your holiday bargains!!!
    What will happen if I need to quarantine?
    This was always a distinct possibility.

    People complaining about getting caught in a quarantine, ours or one in the place they are visiting, has only themselves to blame.
    What for daring to comply with the law?
  • alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    1499 today. Highest for 3 months.
    Where did you see that? Worldometer is currently showing 918 for the UStoday ... but sadly, there's plenty of time for that to go well over 1000 again.
    Do the US apply a 28 day limit...?
    I was puzzled about the 28 day limit. Clearly, it makes no sense to include deaths from unrelated causes of those who tested positive at some stage in the past... but doesn't it often take a lot longer than 28 days from a positive test for someone to succumb to covid?

    For example, I watched this last night. Highly recommended, though it somewhat dented my Covid-bullishness.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000ljnb/surviving-the-virus-my-brother-me
    It brings it in line with the rest of the UK
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited August 2020

    Jonathan said:

    This government is really pushing the boundaries of incompetence.

    I do hope the ONS are going to prepare stats as to how many of those who quarantine on return from France actually get the virus.
    I suspect its being done to stop any more going to those countries rather than about those already there.
    If that was really the case, then it would have been totally logical to set a cut off for some time in the middle of next week, avoiding making a problem, if it exists, much worse as people cram onto every available flight, train or ferry.

    I suspect the reality is that the risks from many French holiday makers is very low. People visiting villas in family groups spend most of their time pretty isolated anyway. Campsites might be more of an issue I suppose.
  • https://twitter.com/JessieJoeJacobs/status/1293978436919267329

    Keir visits Darlington.

    Target seat 40, majority 3294. 3.79% swing required.

    Yet another in the top 50.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    So, I've not got hard cash on the line or an array of spreadsheets, but looked over the numerology for WH20 the other day and my simplistic take is thus.

    So, on Electoral college Biden needs to swing 38 votes from 2016. If we consider MO & NV in the mix as Dem ECV defences, he needs to take 54 swing state votes.

    Swing states are not forming a continuum in the polling, so there are two blocks, those where Biden has a 5-8 point lead, and then some genuine toss ups.

    Biden leaning: NE2 (1, +8), MI (16, +7), WI (10, +7), PA (20, +6), FL (29, +5), MO (10, +5), AZ (11, +4), NV (6, +4) (ECVs, Biden lead)

    So, 103 available from the Biden leaning states, and the ordered polling averages suggest he currently has a 5-6% cushion over Trump on the state which would deliver his ECV majority, with a few different ways of cutting out his majority from these.

    Toss ups: NC (15, +1), OH (18, +1), ME 2 (1, -), GA (16, -1), TX (36, -1), IA (6, -1)

    I think the, generally cautious, working assumption on PB is that Trump will sweep these, even where Biden edges the polling now. As such, these are best seen as wildcards, states where Bidens surprise can sooth any troubles and ease any troubles and sooth the way on the main scorecard, or else can waymark a coming landslide.

    If Biden loses all: ECV= 216-322, if wins all Biden leaning: 319-219, If wins all: 411-127.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Can anyone explain the logic of decisions that now come out of this government?

    Does the government want to move the news agenda on from exam results?

    Does the government think that moving the news agenda on makes a problem go away?
    Someone does. Can't think who that might be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    dixiedean said:

    Can anyone explain the logic of decisions that now come out of this government?

    Bad news about exam results.
    That's the logic.
    A beauty salon dead cat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely over reaction. Again.

    The trouble is this administration seems increasingly to be trying to operate a zero cases policy which will involve the total cratering of our economy and way of life.


    Watch Ivor Cummins short video casedemic to see what is really happening in Europe. The number of positive cases is irrelevant . It’s hospital admissions,ICU and deaths that are the most important thing. Like here cases may be going up in Europe but hospitals are empty and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were.
    That's right. There's massively more testing, and therefore instead of us seeing 20% of the cases, we're seeing 75% of them. And we're also seeing them earlier. And because people are following social distancing behaviour, the viral loads people are recieving are typically lower, and therefore infections less severe.
    Yet still a 1000 deaths per day on average in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Just seen an FB post from a friend in the States. They have been given a "Covid trial injection of either vaccine or placebo....I spiked a 100.9 fever...at 48 hours I'm back to normal..."

    What?!
    Doesn’t sound like the placebo...

    Fever is not an entirely unusual response to vaccines - after all they are intended to provoke an immune response - but the RNA vaccines do appear to have a higher incidence of that side effect than most.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Err. Perhaps they ought to have given it a modicum of thought before going?
    Boris Saves Summer!!! Get your holiday bargains!!!
    What will happen if I need to quarantine?
    This was always a distinct possibility.

    People complaining about getting caught in a quarantine, ours or one in the place they are visiting, has only themselves to blame.
    What for daring to comply with the law?
    It has been blindingly obvious for months now that when travel overseas was allowed again that you might get caught in a quarantine both going out and coming back. It's not like the virus has been elminated and the world is back to the way it was before the virus emerged. Anyone who has not factored such things into their plans is an idiot.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    For those on holiday in France wanting to get back before the quarantine kicks in, I believe there are some lads on the coast near Calais who can sort you out with a boat.
  • Can anyone explain the logic of decisions that now come out of this government?

    Does the government want to move the news agenda on from exam results?

    Does the government think that moving the news agenda on makes a problem go away?
    Someone does. Can't think who that might be.
    I predicted this this morning and it will be big news tomorrow
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    glw said:

    I think at worst Biden makes very little change but at least he'll look and talk like an actual man rather than a fat baby

    If I were a US citizen, I would certainly vote for Biden for that reason alone. As I'm not, I have to confess I really don't mind who wins. There's a naughty part of me that will be very amused if Trump does it again.
    See back in early 2016 the idea that Trump winning would be a great laugh was how things got rolling on social media. Even places now as infamous as Reddit's banned /r/The_Donald subreddit were mainly in it for the laughs and memes. That even held through the primaries, nomination and up to the election. His "supporters" knew full well that Trump was an idiot unfit to hold any office, never mind the Presidency. But Trump did win, and the consequences have been disastrous because inevitably a crisis did arise and he has completey screwed-up. Sadly many of the people who thought it would be a laugh became true-believers and now forgive Trump doing all the same sort of things that they criticised Obama, Bush, and Clinton for.

    A second term would be a hoot in a high-budget HBO drama, a second term in the real world is simply too dangerous to countenance. I do not want to find out what Trump would do if God forbid it another "9/11" occured or something of that ilk.
    You are wasting your breath on crank trumptons like Lucky and Ave It. This “it’s so funny” skit is ludicrously transparent.

    They want Trump to win.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Pro_Rata said:

    So, I've not got hard cash on the line or an array of spreadsheets, but looked over the numerology for WH20 the other day and my simplistic take is thus.

    So, on Electoral college Biden needs to swing 38 votes from 2016. If we consider MO & NV in the mix as Dem ECV defences, he needs to take 54 swing state votes.

    Swing states are not forming a continuum in the polling, so there are two blocks, those where Biden has a 5-8 point lead, and then some genuine toss ups.

    Biden leaning: NE2 (1, +8), MI (16, +7), WI (10, +7), PA (20, +6), FL (29, +5), MO (10, +5), AZ (11, +4), NV (6, +4) (ECVs, Biden lead)

    So, 103 available from the Biden leaning states, and the ordered polling averages suggest he currently has a 5-6% cushion over Trump on the state which would deliver his ECV majority, with a few different ways of cutting out his majority from these.

    Toss ups: NC (15, +1), OH (18, +1), ME 2 (1, -), GA (16, -1), TX (36, -1), IA (6, -1)

    I think the, generally cautious, working assumption on PB is that Trump will sweep these, even where Biden edges the polling now. As such, these are best seen as wildcards, states where Bidens surprise can sooth any troubles and ease any troubles and sooth the way on the main scorecard, or else can waymark a coming landslide.

    If Biden loses all: ECV= 216-322, if wins all Biden leaning: 319-219, If wins all: 411-127.

    Great. Thanks. useful summary.

    Not sure PB assumption is Biden sweeping TX. Maybe that's not what you meant?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    I very much applaud the idea that where Unionism has been going wrong is not displaying enough Union flags.

    https://twitter.com/markdiffley1/status/1294015753969172480?s=20
This discussion has been closed.