politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll on how Euro voters will vote next year
Comments
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It'll be fascinating comparing real votes cast in the local elections with the various national projected shares. Last year the UKIP figure of 23% didn't make sense to me, because they only polled 20% in actual votes in their best areas, the shire counties.0
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Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins ·
Lib Dem PPC Jackie Porter: we've got a good story to tell but nobody's listening any more
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins ·
Lib Dem PPC Jackie Porter on BBC News now
Coming out of the woodwork now.
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There would also be fantastic betting opportunities. Markets on every major vote in the House of Commons. It would be a wonderful, if disastrous, time, as well as an opportunity for some major pork barrel spending in Ulster.GIN1138 said:Well if it was a majority it would be a pretty thin one? Ed would be held hostage by Skinner, Corbyn, Abbott, etc... Like I say, would be great fun for us on here - The country would be down the pan in a year, but what the heck, LOL!
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I have totals now for the 5 Merseyside metropolitan councils:
Lab 158,635 (48.48%)
UKIP 48,849 (14.93%)
Con 47,781 (14.60%)
LD 33,056 (10.10%)
Green 22,797 (6.97%)
TUSC 2,093 (0.64%)
Ind 1,648 (0.50%)
Changes since 2010 locals (held on same day as general election):
Lab +3.07%
UKIP +12.94%
Con -3.92%
LD -17.50%
Green +4.66%
TUSC +0.59%
Ind +0.17%
Maybe slightly disappointing for Labour that they couldn't reach 50% given that they were on 45.41% in 2010.0 -
Ed Miliband is “a problem” that is stopping voters supporting Labour, a shadow Cabinet minister has said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10854486/Voters-say-Ed-Miliband-is-a-problem-shadow-minister-warns.html0 -
40% next year!!!!surbiton said:
Where are the Tories ?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour's 31, is just 1% ahead of the 2010 figure
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Dreaming of 36%,it seems a barrier.surbiton said:
Where are the Tories ?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour's 31, is just 1% ahead of the 2010 figure
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The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.0 -
Based on Ascroft's poll, it seems unlikely that AIFE have polled more than 2%. If you take the "EU" question, "others" score 13%, with UKIP on 50% and other-others probably around 10%, meaning that the proportion of others who are AIFE is ~10%. Now even without any sneaky analysis we can see that others are unlikely to get more than 20%.david_herdson said:If the Lib Dems have polled 5.8% in the Euros, never mind fifth, they could well be battling with An Independence From Europe to avoid finishing sixth. (Note - this is a GB figure; some regions would be worse).
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AVE IT!!!!!!!Ave_it said:
40% next year!!!!surbiton said:
Where are the Tories ?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour's 31, is just 1% ahead of the 2010 figure
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Adrian Hilton @Adrian_Hilton · 2 mins
.@Nigel_Farage: "Now I will destroy the Tory party" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html … < eerie echo of Robert Kilroy-Silk - more anti-Tory than anti-EU
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Yeah, a big problem for Labour with second highest 34% behind. Does this count as a marginal ?AndyJS said:I have totals now for the 5 Merseyside metropolitan councils:
Lab 158,635 (48.48%)
UKIP 48,849 (14.93%)
Con 47,781 (14.60%)
LD 33,056 (10.10%)
Green 22,797 (6.97%)
TUSC 2,093 (0.64%)
Ind 1,648 (0.50%)
Changes since 2010 locals (held on same day as general election):
Lab +3.07%
UKIP +12.94%
Con -3.92%
LD -17.50%
Green +4.66%
TUSC +0.59%
Ind +0.17%
Maybe slightly disappointing for Labour that they couldn't reach 50% given that they were on 45.41% in 2010.0 -
Hmmmmm... Farage getting carried away with it all?Tykejohnno said:Adrian Hilton @Adrian_Hilton · 2 mins
.@Nigel_Farage: "Now I will destroy the Tory party" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html … < eerie echo of Robert Kilroy-Silk - more anti-Tory than anti-EU
I still think at some point the UKIP bubble is going to burst...
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Merseyside goes marginal! Con gains everywhere next year!surbiton said:
Yeah, a big problem for Labour with second highest 34% behind. Does this count as a marginal ?AndyJS said:I have totals now for the 5 Merseyside metropolitan councils:
Lab 158,635 (48.48%)
UKIP 48,849 (14.93%)
Con 47,781 (14.60%)
LD 33,056 (10.10%)
Green 22,797 (6.97%)
TUSC 2,093 (0.64%)
Ind 1,648 (0.50%)
Changes since 2010 locals (held on same day as general election):
Lab +3.07%
UKIP +12.94%
Con -3.92%
LD -17.50%
Green +4.66%
TUSC +0.59%
Ind +0.17%
Maybe slightly disappointing for Labour that they couldn't reach 50% given that they were on 45.41% in 2010.
Lab slip up in Liverpool! Lab = gerrard!!
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Tories = Watford. Always a bit short !Ave_it said:
40% next year!!!!surbiton said:
Where are the Tories ?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour's 31, is just 1% ahead of the 2010 figure
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Keep thinking !GIN1138 said:
Hmmmmm... Farage getting carried away with it all?Tykejohnno said:Adrian Hilton @Adrian_Hilton · 2 mins
.@Nigel_Farage: "Now I will destroy the Tory party" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html … < eerie echo of Robert Kilroy-Silk - more anti-Tory than anti-EU
I still think at some point the UKIP bubble is going to burst...0 -
Pressure on embattled Ed Miliband grew last night after a survey showed Labour would have more chance of winning the next election if they dump him.
A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday revealed that 31 per cent of Labour supporters back the party at the ballot box ‘because of’ Miliband, while 36 per cent do so ‘despite’ him.
By contrast, 48 per cent of Tories back the party because of Cameron, and 18 per cent support the party despite him.
The leadership popularity gap was repeated when voters were asked if they would be more likely to support a party if it had a new leader. Voters said ‘yes’ by a margin of 26 per cent in the case of Labour, compared to a margin of 13 per cent for the Tories.
The most common criticism of Miliband in the poll, which saw 1,017 adults questioned online on Friday, is that he lacks charisma and the ‘common touch’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html0 -
FFS, you cannot make tuition fees the bedrock of your entire campaign and then abandon it once on power. Strategic mistake of seismic proportions and Clegg deserves to be ditched. The trouble is, there's no obvious successor. Farron is a bit lightweight, Hughes is a bit weird, Cable is damaged by having to support Tory lines, Alexander is a Tory; who the hell do you go for?0
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The only good story, Honey, is knifing the Tory who leads your party !Tykejohnno said:Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins ·
Lib Dem PPC Jackie Porter: we've got a good story to tell but nobody's listening any more
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins ·
Lib Dem PPC Jackie Porter on BBC News now
Coming out of the woodwork now.
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Surbiton - QPR! Going down next year!!!surbiton said:
Tories = Watford. Always a bit short !Ave_it said:
40% next year!!!!surbiton said:
Where are the Tories ?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour's 31, is just 1% ahead of the 2010 figure
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I am beginning to sense an autumn election.0
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Cameron needs to do something nuclear on policy on the EU or immigration to have a pin ready,can't see it though.GIN1138 said:
Hmmmmm... Farage getting carried away with it all?Tykejohnno said:Adrian Hilton @Adrian_Hilton · 2 mins
.@Nigel_Farage: "Now I will destroy the Tory party" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html … < eerie echo of Robert Kilroy-Silk - more anti-Tory than anti-EU
I still think at some point the UKIP bubble is going to burst...0 -
Coventry popular votes:
Lab 31,735 (44.70%)
Con 16,903 (23.81%)
UKIP 10,320 (14.54%)
Green 5,139 (7.24%)
BNP 2,068 (2.91%)
LD 1,689 (2.38%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +2.55%
Con -4.65%
UKIP +13.87%
Green +5.78%
BNP -1.65%
LD -15.26%
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Because Cameron really wants to lessen the distance between the Euros and GE, presumably so UKIP can score as good a result as possible.Monksfield said:I am beginning to sense an autumn election.
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Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.surbiton said:The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.0 -
YouGov average Lab lead - last 12 weeks, oldest first (every figure is average of 5 polls, or 4 polls when Bank Holiday):
6.4
5.0
4.6 - Budget week
3.0
4.8
4.4
4.0
4.75
4.4
3.0
1.8
2.0 - This week
Not too hard to spot the trend is it?
It's all too easy to get lost in the here and now - what is noteworthy is just how rapid the change has been. The above covers a period of just under 3 months.0 -
We need a Clegg is Crap thread!TheScreamingEagles said:easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
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Writing it as we speak, for the morning.Sunil_Prasannan said:
We need a Clegg is Crap thread!TheScreamingEagles said:easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
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Not sure. UKIP's downfall, if/when it comes will almost certainly happen from UKIP itself and it may even be from Farage.Tykejohnno said:
Cameron needs to do something nuclear in policy on the EU or immigration to have a pin ready,can't see it though.GIN1138 said:
Hmmmmm... Farage getting carried away with it all?Tykejohnno said:Adrian Hilton @Adrian_Hilton · 2 mins
.@Nigel_Farage: "Now I will destroy the Tory party" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html … < eerie echo of Robert Kilroy-Silk - more anti-Tory than anti-EU
I still think at some point the UKIP bubble is going to burst...
Hope he's watching what he say's privately to journo's when he's had a drink...0 -
@ShippersUnbound: David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters0
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Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2 mins
David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
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I don't think there needs to be an election if the Lib-Dems leave the coalition. The Tories can govern the last 6-9 months as a minority government, as long as they don't try anything too controversial.Monksfield said:I am beginning to sense an autumn election.
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Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.0
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That also would help the lib dems,proberly with a new leader to get back the red liberals voters and that would help the tories.GIN1138 said:
I don't think there needs to be an election if the Lib-Dems leave the coalition. The Tories can govern the last 6-9 months as a minority government, as long as they don't try anything too controversial.Monksfield said:I am beginning to sense an autumn election.
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LD will win 0 seats tomorrow!
Which will be their worst result since 1979!!!0 -
If those R&T figures are correct, my local election model forecasts the Tories winning the popular vote by 8.4% next year, close to the Fisher and L&N models.TheScreamingEagles said:Rallings and Thrasher national equivalent vote.
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
Put it this way, no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position...
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Been away all week in Slovakia, enjoying wonderful 28 degree weather, combined with dental treatment, but will be right back on the button for the Euros tomorrow night...0 -
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2 mins
Two Liberal Democrat MPs have told the Sunday Times that Nick Clegg should resign. One says DPM is leading the party to electoral suicide
Can I hear jaws music ;-)0 -
Go Rod!
Your 8.4% is in line with my 10% projection posted on here many times!
Hope your teeth are ok!!0 -
Fancy doing a thread on that?RodCrosby said:
If those R&T figures are correct, my local election model forecasts the Tories winning the popular vote by 8.4% next year, close to the Fisher and L&N models.TheScreamingEagles said:Rallings and Thrasher national equivalent vote.
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
Put it this way, no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position...
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Been away all week in Slovakia, enjoying wonderful 28 degree weather, combined with dental treatment, but will be right back on the button for the Euros tomorrow night...
The no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position bit, not the Slovakia bit.0 -
FPT:
LD Labour
Cathedrals 1642 1216
Chaucer 1475 1765
East Walworth 612 1693
Grange 1150 1160
Newington 1035 2299
Riverside 1589 807
Rotherite 934 1370
S Bermondsey 1234 1464
Surrey Docks 1039 712
10710 12486
Southwark and Bermondsey. Local Elections 2014. Highest candidate votes only.0 -
Does he really believe that or is it just another 'do something' wail?Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
Are voters really going to be persuaded by a vote in two years, rather than three? In any case, it's not Europe for most UKIP voters (and for those it is, there's probably little that can be done).
On the other hand, promising a vote by 2017 does at least give the possibility of successful negotiations; knocking half the time off that makes it far harder and increases the risk that the other EU countries won't take it seriously.
Davis is a prat.0 -
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 55 secs
IDS also told me that he found on doorstep that lots of people didn't even know Cameron has promised an in-out referendum for 2017
lol0 -
The article doesn't seem to include the 'destroy' quote.GIN1138 said:
Hmmmmm... Farage getting carried away with it all?Tykejohnno said:Adrian Hilton @Adrian_Hilton · 2 mins
.@Nigel_Farage: "Now I will destroy the Tory party" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html … < eerie echo of Robert Kilroy-Silk - more anti-Tory than anti-EU
I still think at some point the UKIP bubble is going to burst...
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Davis was in the army, wasn't he. Like Mercer, he seems to put a very low value on teamwork and cohesion. Is that a comment on today's military of just them?Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
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So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.david_herdson said:
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.surbiton said:The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.
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Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
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@janemerrick23: Westminster hen-house not very calm place to be this weekend. Lots of Tory, Labour and LibDem headless chickens squawking around Ukip foxdavid_herdson said:
Davis is a prat.
We have multiple Lib Dems calling for Nick Clegg to resign, various Shadow cabinet members admitting Ed is a problem, and David Davis
I think the PM will be happy with that...0 -
They won no seats in 1984 and 1989 too. (In 1989, they won 6.2% of the vote, which might be a meaningful benchmark).Ave_it said:LD will win 0 seats tomorrow!
Which will be their worst result since 1979!!!0 -
Was she talking about you Sunil? Have you been twittering out of hours?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
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Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 1 min
John Pugh and Adrian Sanders are the two Lib Dems who have broken cover. Pugh claims 12 Lib Dem MPs want Clegg out now
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I didn't see it as about Cameron. Possibly the only thing LD could do to regain some support would be to knife Clegg and bring down Cameron.Quincel said:
Because Cameron really wants to lessen the distance between the Euros and GE, presumably so UKIP can score as good a result as possible.Monksfield said:I am beginning to sense an autumn election.
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Only Cable can bring the Red Liberals back - but not all of them. Very few people knows who Farron is.Tykejohnno said:
That also would help the lib dems,proberly with a new leader to get back the red liberals voters and that would help the tories.GIN1138 said:
I don't think there needs to be an election if the Lib-Dems leave the coalition. The Tories can govern the last 6-9 months as a minority government, as long as they don't try anything too controversial.Monksfield said:I am beginning to sense an autumn election.
But Alexander the Great will really destroy this once great party.0 -
Please don't post fake LMensch things
Thanks0 -
I trusted the LibDems to get at least 1 MEP-to the extent I backed it.I was under the misapprehension they had a core vote.They have become the new "disappeared" of the old SDP.Cable is increasingly sounding more social democrat.Alexander is one of the Quad,that introduced the hated bedroom tax for example so he has blood on his hands.Clegg is keen to portray his party as a party of government.If Clegg's party ends up with nil points across the UK as a whole.it's more about a party that benefits Clegg and his love of the capitalist baubles of office than the very existence of his party.
This led me to back Farron some time back at 5-2.Lamb is a contender,as Mike suggested but I think he values his health more.It's not a vintage crop to choose so it's a process of elimination as to the least worst option.
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If Louise Mensch said that UKIP are sexist and racist then she's rather daft. I can't be bothered to check as it doesn't matter. A party that really makes headway as they have isn't going to be intrinsically so.
I suspect that UKIP have made headway in the way that they have mostly because the political debate has degenerated to a pantomime.
It's so disappointing that a competent (and at times brilliant) politician should find herself unable to rise above the stage-show.0 -
GN all
Tomorrow night - Ave it announces the GE 2015 result!
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Are we talking about Me Me Mensch ?Omnium said:If Louise Mensch said that UKIP are sexist and racist then she's rather daft. I can't be bothered to check as it doesn't matter. A party that really makes headway as they have isn't going to be intrinsically so.
I suspect that UKIP have made headway in the way that they have mostly because the political debate has degenerated to a pantomime.
It's so disappointing that a competent (and at times brilliant) politician should find herself unable to rise above the stage-show.
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No, I just made one tweet today re. Chvrches (synthpop band!).anotherDave said:
Was she talking about you Sunil? Have you been twittering out of hours?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
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Labour won all 32 seats in Manchester with 57.41% of the popular vote:
Lab 65,205 (57.41%)
Green 14,546 (12.81%)
LD 13,045 (11.49%)
Con 9,085 (8.00%)
UKIP 8,700 (7.66%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +10.98%
Green +8.02%
LD -20.47%
Con -4.11%
UKIP +6.74%0 -
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.RodCrosby said:
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)0 -
Now Ave It has returned, snowflake should come back as well.
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Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)TheScreamingEagles said:
Fancy doing a thread on that?RodCrosby said:
If those R&T figures are correct, my local election model forecasts the Tories winning the popular vote by 8.4% next year, close to the Fisher and L&N models.TheScreamingEagles said:Rallings and Thrasher national equivalent vote.
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
Put it this way, no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position...
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Been away all week in Slovakia, enjoying wonderful 28 degree weather, combined with dental treatment, but will be right back on the button for the Euros tomorrow night...
The no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position bit, not the Slovakia bit.
When was that ? When those greedy petrol tanker drivers were holding the country to ransom ?
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Of course Davis doesn't believe it.david_herdson said:
Does he really believe that or is it just another 'do something' wail?Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
Are voters really going to be persuaded by a vote in two years, rather than three? In any case, it's not Europe for most UKIP voters (and for those it is, there's probably little that can be done).
On the other hand, promising a vote by 2017 does at least give the possibility of successful negotiations; knocking half the time off that makes it far harder and increases the risk that the other EU countries won't take it seriously.
Davis is a prat.
His sole aim is to maximise the chances of Cameron losing the GE.
Nothing else is of any interest to him.
Fortunately he will have little impact as very few people will take any notice of him.0 -
Once the wider public get to see Ed then yes I think UKIP have every chance. As for policy unpicking, how do you think the WWC that are heading to UKIP in their droves will react when Ed tells them they are too stupid to have a vote on the EU?surbiton said:
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.david_herdson said:
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.surbiton said:The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.0 -
Interesting thought though, Tories could run a minority government using the Salmond Defence of "if only we had a majority, then see what we would have done" while blaming everyone else for whatever is going wrong and claiming the benefits of anything going right.GIN1138 said:
I don't think there needs to be an election if the Lib-Dems leave the coalition. The Tories can govern the last 6-9 months as a minority government, as long as they don't try anything too controversial.Monksfield said:I am beginning to sense an autumn election.
Cameron would be able to follow his natural instincts for doing as little as possible, legislation will be negligible, Parliament would be in virtual recess to stop anyone questioning him or holding the government to account. Not much different from now.
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I think Rod meant the 2000 local election result VS 2001 general election result?surbiton said:
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)TheScreamingEagles said:
Fancy doing a thread on that?RodCrosby said:
If those R&T figures are correct, my local election model forecasts the Tories winning the popular vote by 8.4% next year, close to the Fisher and L&N models.TheScreamingEagles said:Rallings and Thrasher national equivalent vote.
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
Put it this way, no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position...
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Been away all week in Slovakia, enjoying wonderful 28 degree weather, combined with dental treatment, but will be right back on the button for the Euros tomorrow night...
The no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position bit, not the Slovakia bit.
When was that ? When those greedy petrol tanker drivers were holding the country to ransom ?
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I know I'm coming over all Tim but given Cameron's problems with the fairer sex, I've long thought it could be a great tactic to put a woman up against him. But it's thin soil in the LD ranks. Swinson is lightweight and will probably lose her seat; Brooke and Teather are standing down and Munt and Burt have tough fights for re-election. That leaves Willott and Featherstone, who I give a decent chance of holding on, but much as I really like Featherstone neither of these has a potential leader profile.0
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You're quite sure? No innocent train related comments about unreliable old boilers, that Mrs Mench may have misinterpreted as an attack on the sisterhood?Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, I just made one tweet today re. Chvrches (synthpop band!).anotherDave said:
Was she talking about you Sunil? Have you been twittering out of hours?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
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Oh and I'll be amazed if LD don't get a Euro MP in the SW.0
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Well I'm quite sexy still and a bit racy. Come and get me Mensch, but please don't remain a mensch, be a lady.surbiton said:
Are we talking about Me Me Mensch ?Omnium said:If Louise Mensch said that UKIP are sexist and racist then she's rather daft. I can't be bothered to check as it doesn't matter. A party that really makes headway as they have isn't going to be intrinsically so.
I suspect that UKIP have made headway in the way that they have mostly because the political debate has degenerated to a pantomime.
It's so disappointing that a competent (and at times brilliant) politician should find herself unable to rise above the stage-show.
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0
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Yes, Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
You.
Let me explain.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?0 -
There are plenty of sexist and racist people in all parties.0
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Please tell Ave_it that soon UKIP will be invading his Watford gap.
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UKIP voters don't give an XXXX about Europe. They themselves say so. All they talk about is Joe Foreigner.nigel4england said:
Once the wider public get to see Ed then yes I think UKIP have every chance. As for policy unpicking, how do you think the WWC that are heading to UKIP in their droves will react when Ed tells them they are too stupid to have a vote on the EU?surbiton said:
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.david_herdson said:
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.surbiton said:The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.0 -
At least it'll only be the intellectually challenged Graham Watson who won't be able to do much harm.Monksfield said:Oh and I'll be amazed if LD don't get a Euro MP in the SW.
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Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.MikeL said:
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.RodCrosby said:
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...0 -
Minor parties that are not expected to form a government have a great deal of leeway on their policy platform. I don't think it will be a significant factor.surbiton said:
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.david_herdson said:
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.surbiton said:The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.
What will determine whether Labour holds Rotherham comfortably or whether UKIP run them close (or better) will be the extent to which the voters there believe Labour speaks for them and doesn't take them for granted. Detailed policy is by the by.0 -
Toby Helm @tobyhelm · 2 mins
The plot against Nick Clegg can't be totally dismissed. How do the Lib Dems keep their radicalism inside the coalition? Will it break it?
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Rod, we're hearing a lot today about Labour marginals Vs UNS - The idea being that because Labour is doing better in the marginals and because of UKIP UNS won't matter in 2015.RodCrosby said:
Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.MikeL said:
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.RodCrosby said:
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
Anything to add?
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George Eaton @georgeeaton · 58 secs
Labour need Clegg to survive. New leader could revive party and win back defectors.
Yep.0 -
Vince Cable would be a brilliant replacement for Nick Clegg IMO. The party might only lose 5-10 seats next year instead of 20.0
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Great to see that even after Thursday people like you still don't get it.surbiton said:
UKIP voters don't give an XXXX about Europe. They themselves say so. All they talk about is Joe Foreigner.nigel4england said:
Once the wider public get to see Ed then yes I think UKIP have every chance. As for policy unpicking, how do you think the WWC that are heading to UKIP in their droves will react when Ed tells them they are too stupid to have a vote on the EU?surbiton said:
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.david_herdson said:
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.surbiton said:The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.0 -
Very clever Nino but you still talk a load of bollocks.Ninoinoz said:
Yes, Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
You.
Let me explain.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?
0 -
No I'm not a racist - for example unlike most Asians, I am open to marrying a non-Asian. I am mostly supportive of UKIP because I'm a BOOer (Better-Off-Out) regarding the EU. You may be interested to know I voted Tory in the Local election, I only voted UKIP for the Euro election.Ninoinoz said:
Yes, Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
You.
Let me explain.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?0 -
The Lds aren't unpopular because of Nick Clegg, they're unpopular because of the shift from opposition to government and their inexperience meaning they handle it poorly. Clegg is personally very identified with this, but he's only a small part of the problem.AndyJS said:Vince Cable would be a brilliant replacement for Nick Clegg IMO. The party might only lose 5-10 seats next year instead of 20.
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What we've heard today on here is a certain amount of nonsense designed to cause confusion.GIN1138 said:
Rod, we're hearing a lot today about Labour marginals Vs UNS - The idea being that because Labour is doing better in the marginals and because of UKIP UNS won't matter in 2015.RodCrosby said:
Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.MikeL said:
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.RodCrosby said:
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
Anything to add?
Ashcroft has issued a comprehensive poll of Con marginals showing that the swing in these seats is precisely identical to the national swing in national polls.0 -
Anyway we should all be a lot wiser by this time tomorrow. So I'm off to bed.0
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More specifically, Farage is of Huegenot ancestry, his French ancestors having fled the massacres as refugees to Protestant England.
Perhaps this is part of the reason why he suggested taking in Syrian Christian refugees.Ninoinoz said:
Yes, Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
You.
Let me explain.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?0 -
And going by the local election results, one of them might be his.AndyJS said:Vince Cable would be a brilliant replacement for Nick Clegg IMO. The party might only lose 5-10 seats next year instead of 20.
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I never believe marginals polls. I didn't for the Tories last time, and I don't now. Too many statistical traps for the unwary.GIN1138 said:
Rod, we're hearing a lot today about Labour marginals Vs UNS - The idea being that because Labour is doing better in the marginals and because of UKIP UNS won't matter in 2015.RodCrosby said:
Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.MikeL said:
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.RodCrosby said:
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
Anything to add?
0 -
Bury changes in popular vote since 2010 locals:
Lab +7.79%
Con -5.93%
UKIP +11.86%
LD -14.53%
Green +5.26%
Swing, Con to Lab: 6.86%
Labour need a swing of 2.5% to win Bury North.0 -
I'm not a racist sunil,I am open to marrying a Asian women,but round here if I did that,I would proberly have my knee's capped ;-) who is the real racist ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
No I'm not a racist - for example unlike most Asians, I am open to marrying a non-Asian. I am mostly supportive of UKIP because I'm a BOOer (Better-Off-Out) regarding the EU. You may be interested to know I voted Tory in the Local election, I only voted UKIP for the Euro election.Ninoinoz said:
Yes, Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
You.
Let me explain.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?0 -
Thanks, but unfortunately Sunil has taken me seriously.MikeK said:
Very clever Nino but you still talk a load of bollocks.Ninoinoz said:
Yes, Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
You.
Let me explain.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?
But, Farage was asked was he ashamed of his origins by a foreign journalist on Thursday and Mrs Farage has caused chaos in media circles by being German.
I don't think Farage knows what's he's stumbled upon what with that rally last weekend and the carnival last week.
Keep White people out! There's too many of 'em here already!0 -
The Rotherham Labour Party might not be a happy ship.david_herdson said:
Minor parties that are not expected to form a government have a great deal of leeway on their policy platform. I don't think it will be a significant factor.surbiton said:
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.david_herdson said:
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.surbiton said:The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.
What will determine whether Labour holds Rotherham comfortably or whether UKIP run them close (or better) will be the extent to which the voters there believe Labour speaks for them and doesn't take them for granted. Detailed policy is by the by.
http://www.rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk/news/92997/bluebell-wood-s-sarah-champion-proud-to-be-labour-candidate.aspx0 -
I know plenty of mixed Asian-British couples, it doesn't seem to be a big issue in terms of race here in Leicester to either community.Tykejohnno said:
I'm not a racist sunil,I am open to marrying a Asian women,but round here if I did that,I would proberly have my knee's capped ;-) who's the real racist ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
No I'm not a racist - for example unlike most Asians, I am open to marrying a non-Asian. I am mostly supportive of UKIP because I'm a BOOer (Better-Off-Out) regarding the EU. You may be interested to know I voted Tory in the Local election, I only voted UKIP for the Euro election.Ninoinoz said:
Yes, Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Some Kippers are racist and sexist.AndyJS said:Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.
You.
Let me explain.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?0 -
Interesting. I do like a good marginals poll I must say.RodCrosby said:
I never believe marginals polls. I didn't for the Tories last time, and I don't now. Too many statistical traps for the unwary.GIN1138 said:
Rod, we're hearing a lot today about Labour marginals Vs UNS - The idea being that because Labour is doing better in the marginals and because of UKIP UNS won't matter in 2015.RodCrosby said:
Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.MikeL said:
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.RodCrosby said:
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
Anything to add?
0
