Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election
Perhaps showing a less than perfect understanding of the principle of targeting?
If they 'won' 20 Westmister seats, then why not?
That said, The Guardian is an unlikely publication for UKIP insider gossip.
Because they havent 'won' 20 Westminster seats (that I know of yet anyway - wasnt it 12 or so last year with presumably a few more this year) when circumstances have been more favourable for them than they will be in the run up to a GE.
[Probably don't need the regnal number, though, if you're including the nickname]. I wonder if that'd make Farron Demetrius Poliorcetes.
Edited extra bit: the Battle of Ipsus was rather spectacular. Although a direct analogy is tricky, it has the likely similarity of marking a significant and permanent change to the political map. Probably won't be 400 elephants involved in the GE campaign, though.
I also have a piece in the pipeline which compares Nick Clegg to King Leonidas, and the 2015 General Election being the Lib Dems Battle of Thermoplyae, but I'm not sure on the following
1) Who would be Xerxes I
2) What would be Nick Clegg's "This is Sparta" moment with Xerxes' emissary?
UKIP are about 20% in a Westminster poll, up from 3% at the last GE and from about 10% a year ago. The surge is unlikely to be over. If Farage's policy review gets it right, due after the Euros, expect it to continue. People are seething with anger and just common sense is needed to land UKIP in poll position by next May.
Mr. kle4, perhaps. ....the Lib Dems are like a stoned student. Most of the time they're mellow and relaxed, but every now and then they freak out and attack the leader with a kitchen knife. If they wanted to toss Clegg overboard they should've done it before they lost 2/5 of their councillors.
Under Clegg the LDs have lost half their Councillors.
Mildly amusing the way all the Labour people disappear when the latest poll gives them just a 1% lead.
It is Saturday night. Maybe they have better things to do?
Like celebrating the Ashcroft poll and forgetting they had a very poor performance in real elections yesterday where 60% of their below target gains were in London and be unlikely to give them more than 4/5 gains at best ... IF they were repeated next year. It really is time people took a more sensible approach to opinion polls generally and their significance. I'm reminded about the old Endowment policy warnings - past profits are no guarantee of future success, Polls tell us a little bit about now and in the modern political world somewhat less about tomorrow.
The problem for the LibDems is replace Clegg with whom? Yes he personally is the political pox. But its not just him that their ex voters find repulsive, its the Tories. So to actually turn things around they need a leader not associated with this government.
The only viable names I could come up with were Farron or Kennedy. Farron is another machine stamped clone, Kennedy has nostalgia appeal but would be a retread.
I also have a piece in the pipeline which compares Nick Clegg to King Leonidas, and the 2015 General Election being the Lib Dems Battle of Thermoplyae, but I'm not sure on the following
1) Who would be Xerxes I
2) What would be Nick Clegg's "This is Sparta" moment with Xerxes' emissary?
Wait, so the LDs would be annihilated to a man but allow the victory of a whole bunch of other people.
1) I'd say Farage would be Xerxes in the movie mold by being an inflatedly monstrous figure for them, but in fact if he does well the LDs are likely to do better as UKIP take away more Tory votes in LD-Con marginals, so really Ed M is Xerxes? His party are the ones destroying the LDs I guess, or at least benefit the most.
2) Any Lab Cabinet minister 'speculating' before the election about how a pact with the LDs was possible, to be shot down by Clegg, who is then destroyed at the GE?
Lab 26,166 (37.05%) UKIP 15,010 (21.25%) Con 11,618 (16.45%) LD 11,314 (16.02%) Green 2,850 (4.04%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +2.11% UKIP +16.00% Con -7.28% LD -16.60% Green +3.85%
Many thanks - I took a strange pleasure in watching you type those in live!
Last year I did it all "secretly" and then posted the spreadsheets when I'd finished, but this time I thought it would be more useful and interesting to have it up while I enter the results.
Some councils present their election results in the most awkward and difficult to read way imaginable. I can only surmise that they don't actually think anyone is going to look at them except maybe in passing.
Andy, I've collated Bolton's results out of local interest. Quick note on method - in the 1 multi member constituency, I just took the highest result per party -
Con 16682 22% lab 29993 40% LD 5321 7% UKIP 18770 25% G 2626 4% Other 949 1%
Damian of Survation and myself have agreed this is UKIP's highest ever score, previously they've had them on 22 three times, twice in May 2013, in the aftermath of the 2013 Locals, and once in July 2013.
I think this maybe UKIP's highest ever Westminster score
Survation/ MOS *Super Fresh* VI Westminster. Fieldwork FRIDAY, (chg vs May 11) CON 27 (-1), LAB 32 (-2), LD 9 (-1) UKIP 23 (+4), AP 9 (+1)
So. Labour lead of 5. And the kippers - the ones not prompted and not modelled - just 4 behind the Tories?
Its obvious the Tories have won isn't it. You all said so over the last few weeks.......
Survation do prompt for UKIP.
The only ones who do. Compare and contrast their UKIP scores, and UKIPs actual scores over the elections on Thursday - with the other pollsters who don't prompt for them. And with the psephologists who confidently predict seats for the other three but for UKIP its ??? as "its not in the model".
You can't wish UKIP away because they've "stolen" your votes
I think this maybe UKIP's highest ever Westminster score
Survation/ MOS *Super Fresh* VI Westminster. Fieldwork FRIDAY, (chg vs May 11) CON 27 (-1), LAB 32 (-2), LD 9 (-1) UKIP 23 (+4), AP 9 (+1)
So. Labour lead of 5. And the kippers - the ones not prompted and not modelled - just 4 behind the Tories?
Its obvious the Tories have won isn't it. You all said so over the last few weeks.......
Survation do prompt for UKIP.
The only ones who do. Compare and contrast their UKIP scores, and UKIPs actual scores over the elections on Thursday - with the other pollsters who don't prompt for them. And with the psephologists who confidently predict seats for the other three but for UKIP its ??? as "its not in the model".
You can't wish UKIP away because they've "stolen" your votes
You're doing an awful lot of inaccurate projection of what I think.
I think this maybe UKIP's highest ever Westminster score
Survation/ MOS *Super Fresh* VI Westminster. Fieldwork FRIDAY, (chg vs May 11) CON 27 (-1), LAB 32 (-2), LD 9 (-1) UKIP 23 (+4), AP 9 (+1)
So. Labour lead of 5. And the kippers - the ones not prompted and not modelled - just 4 behind the Tories?
Its obvious the Tories have won isn't it. You all said so over the last few weeks.......
Survation do prompt for UKIP.
The only ones who do. Compare and contrast their UKIP scores, and UKIPs actual scores over the elections on Thursday - with the other pollsters who don't prompt for them. And with the psephologists who confidently predict seats for the other three but for UKIP its ??? as "its not in the model".
You can't wish UKIP away because they've "stolen" your votes
Sorry TSE, the "you" was plural, not aimed at you. It was a comment against the pollsters the psephologists the commentariat who all want to pretend they don't exist.
I think this maybe UKIP's highest ever Westminster score
Survation/ MOS *Super Fresh* VI Westminster. Fieldwork FRIDAY, (chg vs May 11) CON 27 (-1), LAB 32 (-2), LD 9 (-1) UKIP 23 (+4), AP 9 (+1)
So. Labour lead of 5. And the kippers - the ones not prompted and not modelled - just 4 behind the Tories?
Its obvious the Tories have won isn't it. You all said so over the last few weeks.......
Survation do prompt for UKIP.
The only ones who do. Compare and contrast their UKIP scores, and UKIPs actual scores over the elections on Thursday - with the other pollsters who don't prompt for them. And with the psephologists who confidently predict seats for the other three but for UKIP its ??? as "its not in the model".
You can't wish UKIP away because they've "stolen" your votes
PB Tories live in a dreamworld.
Haha clearly you don't then if you think you will get independence!
2014 you lose 2015 we win then We stop giving English money to Scottish layabouts and spongers - back with the crofting system!
SF, DUP consolidate their positions as dominant voices in council politics - With more than 400 of 462 seats declared the two largest parties have 213 seats
That would be the DUP that started as a fringe one man band under Ian Paisley over the issue of national sovereignty, essentially a protest vote, eventually winning a westminster seat or two but then went onto replace the UUP after the UUP and lost the voters trust, especially the skilled working class and lower middle class.
If I were the tories I would be very very worried this weekend
Also if I were the DUP I might be a bit concerned too as UKIP are starting to make inroads in NI.
The DUP-UKIP analogy is a good one. The UUP used to be just as arrogant and naive as the Tories are being today.
Sorry TSE, the "you" was plural, not aimed at you. It was a comment against the pollsters the psephologists the commentariat who all want to pretend they don't exist.
I think this maybe UKIP's highest ever Westminster score
Survation/ MOS *Super Fresh* VI Westminster. Fieldwork FRIDAY, (chg vs May 11) CON 27 (-1), LAB 32 (-2), LD 9 (-1) UKIP 23 (+4), AP 9 (+1)
So. Labour lead of 5. And the kippers - the ones not prompted and not modelled - just 4 behind the Tories?
Its obvious the Tories have won isn't it. You all said so over the last few weeks.......
Survation do prompt for UKIP.
The only ones who do. Compare and contrast their UKIP scores, and UKIPs actual scores over the elections on Thursday - with the other pollsters who don't prompt for them. And with the psephologists who confidently predict seats for the other three but for UKIP its ??? as "its not in the model".
You can't wish UKIP away because they've "stolen" your votes
PB Tories live in a dreamworld.
Haha clearly you don't then if you think you will get independence!
2014 you lose 2015 we win then We stop giving English money to Scottish layabouts and spongers - back with the crofting system!
I think this maybe UKIP's highest ever Westminster score
Survation/ MOS *Super Fresh* VI Westminster. Fieldwork FRIDAY, (chg vs May 11) CON 27 (-1), LAB 32 (-2), LD 9 (-1) UKIP 23 (+4), AP 9 (+1)
So. Labour lead of 5. And the kippers - the ones not prompted and not modelled - just 4 behind the Tories?
Its obvious the Tories have won isn't it. You all said so over the last few weeks.......
Survation do prompt for UKIP.
The only ones who do. Compare and contrast their UKIP scores, and UKIPs actual scores over the elections on Thursday - with the other pollsters who don't prompt for them. And with the psephologists who confidently predict seats for the other three but for UKIP its ??? as "its not in the model".
You can't wish UKIP away because they've "stolen" your votes
PB Tories live in a dreamworld.
Haha clearly you don't then if you think you will get independence!
2014 you lose 2015 we win then We stop giving English money to Scottish layabouts and spongers - back with the crofting system!
Refreshing to see an honest Unionist.
I'll assume you would not like people to assume all those in favour of independence are close minded, nasty and mean spirited Cybernats, so I think you would be happy to agree not al unionists think that, or that all unionists who do not say that are lying.
Andy, I've collated Bolton's results out of local interest. Quick note on method - in the 1 multi member constituency, I just took the highest result per party -
Con 16682 22% lab 29993 40% LD 5321 7% UKIP 18770 25% G 2626 4% Other 949 1%
Total 74341
Thanks, I'm using the highest vote method as well.
This is where I'm entering the Met Councils data before transferring it to the summary spreadsheet:
Mr. Dickson, I'd be wary of mocking Ave It's predictions. Once upon a time everyone had a laugh when he said Boris would become Mayor of London.
Who said I was mocking him?? I said that I thought his honesty refreshing ("2014 you lose 2015 we win then We stop giving English money to Scottish layabouts and spongers - back with the crofting system!")
Lots of Unionist think like that, but very few will openly admit it.
I don't mock Unionist complacency. Quite the contrary: I love Unionist complacency.
UKIP are about 20% in a Westminster poll, up from 3% at the last GE and from about 10% a year ago. The surge is unlikely to be over. If Farage's policy review gets it right, due after the Euros, expect it to continue. People are seething with anger and just common sense is needed to land UKIP in poll position by next May.
The last two times UKIP surged in the polls (2009 and 2013), they peaked at the spring elections and then fell back over the summer. Past performance doesn't necessarily imply future trends and all that, but there may be an underlying reason (media coverage, a lessening of intensity of political debate of the silly season etc?).
But as I said this morning, Newark is in less than two weeks and the postal voting is now.
DAVID CAMERON has told ministers that he will send Andrew Lansley, the leader of the Commons, to Brussels as Britain’s next EU commissioner.
Lansley is seen as a safe pair of hands who is Eurosceptic enough not to enrage Tory backbenchers but will be able to win the approval of Nick Clegg, who has publicly claimed that he would veto the appointment of anyone too extreme.
Mr. kle4, only reason to get rid of Clegg is for a serious change, which likely means the end of the Coalition and possibly even a vote for the General Election being brought forward.
If I were a Lib Dem I suspect I'd want 12 months of hopefully good economic news, in the hope of getting a little polling boost from it.
They also need to replace Clegg with someone clearly better. Huhne's an ex-con, Cable's past it and Farron's Farron. Still, there's Norman Lamb. [There's also Danny Alexander, but if he replaced Clegg and the Scots vote Yes that wouldn't look very clever].
When could an election be brought forward to? Traditionally elections are not held in high Summer (people on hols) or winter (bad weather). So the only available slot would be this Autumn, which would clash with the Scottish referendum. You would also need both parties to agree to an early dissolution. More likely would be that the LDs leave the coalition and you have a Con minority government for the last year
Damian of Survation and myself have agreed this is UKIP's highest ever score, previously they've had them on 22 three times, twice in May 2013, in the aftermath of the 2013 Locals, and once in July 2013.
23% is also the highest for any third party this parliament, matching the Lib Dems' score with ComRes on 17 June 2010.
Mr. kle4, only reason to get rid of Clegg is for a serious change, which likely means the end of the Coalition and possibly even a vote for the General Election being brought forward.
If I were a Lib Dem I suspect I'd want 12 months of hopefully good economic news, in the hope of getting a little polling boost from it.
They also need to replace Clegg with someone clearly better. Huhne's an ex-con, Cable's past it and Farron's Farron. Still, there's Norman Lamb. [There's also Danny Alexander, but if he replaced Clegg and the Scots vote Yes that wouldn't look very clever].
When could an election be brought forward to? Traditionally elections are not held in high Summer (people on hols) or winter (bad weather). So the only available slot would be this Autumn, which would clash with the Scottish referendum. You would also need both parties to agree to an early dissolution. More likely would be that the LDs leave the coalition and you have a Con minority government for the last year
Unless the Conservatives refused to form a minority government if the Lib Dems left, and forced an early election?
If Lib-Dems come in behind the Greens tomorrow night, I do think Clegg might be ousted!
The Tuition fee pledge would have cost £1 billion.
How much is Osborne adrift of his 2010 deficit reduction plan ?
Clegg. He could have been a hero. Just insist on that £1bn. Osborne would have bought it.
At the end of the day, the Lds are not professionals - they are amatuers in this game.
Clegg has to go. I hope the Park Ranger becomes leader and then they will be sunk !
I thought it always looked bad that the Lib-Dems (and Clegg especially) put securing an AV referendum and Lords reform ahead of their tuition fees pledge. It just looked so self-serving.
So much for new politics.
Really, tuition fee's should have been THE Lib-Dem line in the sand, more so than all the constitutional nonsense that they thought was so, so important.
If Lib-Dems come in behind the Greens tomorrow night, I do think Clegg might be ousted!
Maybe it's worth pasting in full that post from UKPR. It looks like an excellent piece of deduction. Subject to caveats, the poster suggests the Greens may score double the LD vote.
NUMBER CRUNCHER Anthony et al: By crunching some numbers I’ve potentially found something very interesting indeed. Lord Ashcroft also did a Euro ‘exit’ poll of people saying they voted, full results to be published tomorrow night, but in the meantime he published some ‘issues’ tabs: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Post-Euro-Election-Poll-Summary-May-2014.pdf What’s interesting is the table on page 2, because it shows breaks by party and also for all voters. ‘All voters’ is of course a weighted average of each party’s voters (and ‘others’) but by applying an optimisation algorithm, we can estimate the weights used. These aren’t totally precise estimates because the published numbers will have been rounded, but the weights in the solution (x100) are: CON 23.8 LAB 23.3 LIB 5.8 UKIP 29.3 OTH 17.8 Not sure whether these are weights are indicative of the toplines that will be published tomorrow, but if they’re in any way indicative, I’d say they look good for UKIP, as expected for CON, bad for LAB, shocking for LIB and probably very good for GRN (Others ex-GRN have averaged about 6.3 in the last week by my reckoning, so if that played out, GRN weight would be around 11.5). On this basis, a UNS would give these seats: CON 18 LAB 19 LIB 0 UKIP 24 GRN 6 Make of this what you will, I haven’t had it peer reviewed! If you want to check the numbers it can easily be done in Excel
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
Funniest scenario is Clegg gets resigned and they replace him with someone like Beaker or Cable. Then scratch their heads in puzzlement when the party still gets punished for being loyal Tories in government.
Yes Clegg is a disreputable liar, but aren't they all? Its not tuition fees that's slicing chunks off the numbers of LibDem councillors or MEPs or voters. Its voting through all those Tory bills. Swapping Clegg for another Tory loyalist will change nothing
#Rallings and Thrasher general election projection @thesundaytimes based on council votes: #Labour 321 seats, Con 262, Lib Dem 37, #Ukip 0
I suspect Labour would attempt to run a minority government on those numbers.
What fun we'd have on here...
Excluding Sinn Fein and including the SDLP, that would probably be a majority.
Well if it was a majority it would be a pretty thin one? Ed would be held hostage by Skinner, Corbyn, Abbott, etc... Like I say, would be great fun for us on here - The country would be down the pan in a year, but what the heck, LOL!
If the Lib Dems have polled 5.8% in the Euros, never mind fifth, they could well be battling with An Independence From Europe to avoid finishing sixth. (Note - this is a GB figure; some regions would be worse).
Funniest scenario is Clegg gets resigned and they replace him with someone like Beaker or Cable. Then scratch their heads in puzzlement when the party still gets punished for being loyal Tories in government.
Yes Clegg is a disreputable liar, but aren't they all? Its not tuition fees that's slicing chunks off the numbers of LibDem councillors or MEPs or voters. Its voting through all those Tory bills. Swapping Clegg for another Tory loyalist will change nothing
Surely if they get rid of Clegg they'll leave the coalition and try to establish their own identity in Opposition?
Eviscerate Clegg > End Coalition
The two kind of go together in my view. This summer we may reach the End Game for the Coalition!
Comments
[Probably don't need the regnal number, though, if you're including the nickname]. I wonder if that'd make Farron Demetrius Poliorcetes.
Edited extra bit: the Battle of Ipsus was rather spectacular. Although a direct analogy is tricky, it has the likely similarity of marking a significant and permanent change to the political map. Probably won't be 400 elephants involved in the GE campaign, though.
I keep meaning to go back and revisit some of my history books, but there's just not enough time.
1) Who would be Xerxes I
2) What would be Nick Clegg's "This is Sparta" moment with Xerxes' emissary?
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 1m
SUNDAY TIMES: Tories press PM to hold early EU vote #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers
pic.twitter.com/HmoKAPoX3k
Unconvinced by that comparison, I think.
Mr. PoliticalBetting, I was too kind (actually, I was referring, approximately, to the elections just gone, which I think were 2/5 losses).
The only viable names I could come up with were Farron or Kennedy. Farron is another machine stamped clone, Kennedy has nostalgia appeal but would be a retread.
INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY: Lib dem MPs in bid to oust Clegg #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/vHrj8BqXNS
Heard rumours Justin Bieber's doing the podium interviews.
I hope Alonso's up there. Bieber wanted to meet him, but the Spaniard said he was 'too busy'.
**** off Simeone
Lab 26,166 (37.05%)
UKIP 15,010 (21.25%)
Con 11,618 (16.45%)
LD 11,314 (16.02%)
Green 2,850 (4.04%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +2.11%
UKIP +16.00%
Con -7.28%
LD -16.60%
Green +3.85%
Wait, so the LDs would be annihilated to a man but allow the victory of a whole bunch of other people.
1) I'd say Farage would be Xerxes in the movie mold by being an inflatedly monstrous figure for them, but in fact if he does well the LDs are likely to do better as UKIP take away more Tory votes in LD-Con marginals, so really Ed M is Xerxes? His party are the ones destroying the LDs I guess, or at least benefit the most.
2) Any Lab Cabinet minister 'speculating' before the election about how a pact with the LDs was possible, to be shot down by Clegg, who is then destroyed at the GE?
Xerxes = the EU
Farage = Leonidas
These Local/EU elections = "This is Sparta!"
I think this maybe UKIP's highest ever Westminster score
Survation/ MOS *Super Fresh* VI Westminster. Fieldwork FRIDAY, (chg vs May 11) CON 27 (-1), LAB 32 (-2), LD 9 (-1) UKIP 23 (+4), AP 9 (+1)
Time OuT cover is fun.
Its obvious the Tories have won isn't it. You all said so over the last few weeks.......
Con 16682 22%
lab 29993 40%
LD 5321 7%
UKIP 18770 25%
G 2626 4%
Other 949 1%
Total 74341
You can't wish UKIP away because they've "stolen" your votes
2014 you lose
2015 we win
then
We stop giving English money to Scottish layabouts and spongers - back with the crofting system!
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98565/the_sunday_telegraph_sunday_25th_may_2014.html
Lab +4.01%
Con -5.23%
UKIP +18.08%
LD -20.34%
Green +5.73%
BNP -2.45%
Night all.
Top 3:
Lewis Hamilton 9/5 Betfair
Chris Froome 7/1 various
Andy Murray / Steven Gerrard / Gareth Bale 16/1 various
This is where I'm entering the Met Councils data before transferring it to the summary spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHR0LWkxX1E5d0Fqd0hDd0Vid0RHUkE#gid=0
Italy 4/9
Uruguay 4/7
England 8/13
Costa Rica 12/1
I'm quite glad I saw Downfall before the spoofs came about.
Anyway, off for the night. Rather looking forward to the race tomorrow.
Lots of Unionist think like that, but very few will openly admit it.
I don't mock Unionist complacency. Quite the contrary: I love Unionist complacency.
But as I said this morning, Newark is in less than two weeks and the postal voting is now.
DAVID CAMERON has told ministers that he will send Andrew Lansley, the leader of the Commons, to Brussels as Britain’s next EU commissioner.
Lansley is seen as a safe pair of hands who is Eurosceptic enough not to enrage Tory backbenchers but will be able to win the approval of Nick Clegg, who has publicly claimed that he would veto the appointment of anyone too extreme.
Pity he will never play in world cup or euros.
Let me get the Euros out of the way first
any takers?
What fun we'd have on here...
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins · 6 mins
Lib Dem PPC Kayes tells @StephenNolan Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership
"Iain Duncan Smith vetoes Universal Credit report" Or not?
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/42344/
How much is Osborne adrift of his 2010 deficit reduction plan ?
Clegg. He could have been a hero. Just insist on that £1bn. Osborne would have bought it.
At the end of the day, the Lds are not professionals - they are amatuers in this game.
Clegg has to go. I hope the Park Ranger becomes leader and then they will be sunk !
Lab +1.02%
Con -4.06%
UKIP +13.82%
LD -14.66%
Green +4.36%
Swing, Con to Lab: 2.54%
Labour need a swing of 3.1 to win Wirral West.
Wirral West itself:
Con 8,107
Lab 6,719
UKIP 3,751
LD 1,895
Green 1,574
Good news for Esther McVey.
So much for new politics.
Really, tuition fee's should have been THE Lib-Dem line in the sand, more so than all the constitutional nonsense that they thought was so, so important.
Lab 35, Con 34, LD 9, UKIP 13
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842/comment-page-2#comment-908455
NUMBER CRUNCHER
Anthony et al:
By crunching some numbers I’ve potentially found something very interesting indeed.
Lord Ashcroft also did a Euro ‘exit’ poll of people saying they voted, full results to be published tomorrow night, but in the meantime he published some ‘issues’ tabs:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Post-Euro-Election-Poll-Summary-May-2014.pdf
What’s interesting is the table on page 2, because it shows breaks by party and also for all voters. ‘All voters’ is of course a weighted average of each party’s voters (and ‘others’) but by applying an optimisation algorithm, we can estimate the weights used. These aren’t totally precise estimates because the published numbers will have been rounded, but the weights in the solution (x100) are:
CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8
Not sure whether these are weights are indicative of the toplines that will be published tomorrow, but if they’re in any way indicative, I’d say they look good for UKIP, as expected for CON, bad for LAB, shocking for LIB and probably very good for GRN (Others ex-GRN have averaged about 6.3 in the last week by my reckoning, so if that played out, GRN weight would be around 11.5).
On this basis, a UNS would give these seats:
CON 18
LAB 19
LIB 0
UKIP 24
GRN 6
Make of this what you will, I haven’t had it peer reviewed! If you want to check the numbers it can easily be done in Excel
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
Yes Clegg is a disreputable liar, but aren't they all? Its not tuition fees that's slicing chunks off the numbers of LibDem councillors or MEPs or voters. Its voting through all those Tory bills. Swapping Clegg for another Tory loyalist will change nothing
Did you see my Bermondsey figures this morning ?
I know that Labour, stunningly, topped the poll in Hughes's constituency.
Please post the figures again if possible.
Eviscerate Clegg > End Coalition
The two kind of go together in my view. This summer we may reach the End Game for the Coalition!