It'll be fascinating comparing real votes cast in the local elections with the various national projected shares. Last year the UKIP figure of 23% didn't make sense to me, because they only polled 20% in actual votes in their best areas, the shire counties.
Well if it was a majority it would be a pretty thin one? Ed would be held hostage by Skinner, Corbyn, Abbott, etc... Like I say, would be great fun for us on here - The country would be down the pan in a year, but what the heck, LOL!
There would also be fantastic betting opportunities. Markets on every major vote in the House of Commons. It would be a wonderful, if disastrous, time, as well as an opportunity for some major pork barrel spending in Ulster.
If the Lib Dems have polled 5.8% in the Euros, never mind fifth, they could well be battling with An Independence From Europe to avoid finishing sixth. (Note - this is a GB figure; some regions would be worse).
Based on Ascroft's poll, it seems unlikely that AIFE have polled more than 2%. If you take the "EU" question, "others" score 13%, with UKIP on 50% and other-others probably around 10%, meaning that the proportion of others who are AIFE is ~10%. Now even without any sneaky analysis we can see that others are unlikely to get more than 20%.
Pressure on embattled Ed Miliband grew last night after a survey showed Labour would have more chance of winning the next election if they dump him.
A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday revealed that 31 per cent of Labour supporters back the party at the ballot box ‘because of’ Miliband, while 36 per cent do so ‘despite’ him.
By contrast, 48 per cent of Tories back the party because of Cameron, and 18 per cent support the party despite him.
The leadership popularity gap was repeated when voters were asked if they would be more likely to support a party if it had a new leader. Voters said ‘yes’ by a margin of 26 per cent in the case of Labour, compared to a margin of 13 per cent for the Tories.
The most common criticism of Miliband in the poll, which saw 1,017 adults questioned online on Friday, is that he lacks charisma and the ‘common touch’.
FFS, you cannot make tuition fees the bedrock of your entire campaign and then abandon it once on power. Strategic mistake of seismic proportions and Clegg deserves to be ditched. The trouble is, there's no obvious successor. Farron is a bit lightweight, Hughes is a bit weird, Cable is damaged by having to support Tory lines, Alexander is a Tory; who the hell do you go for?
It's all too easy to get lost in the here and now - what is noteworthy is just how rapid the change has been. The above covers a period of just under 3 months.
easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
@ShippersUnbound: David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2 mins David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
I don't think there needs to be an election if the Lib-Dems leave the coalition. The Tories can govern the last 6-9 months as a minority government, as long as they don't try anything too controversial.
I don't think there needs to be an election if the Lib-Dems leave the coalition. The Tories can govern the last 6-9 months as a minority government, as long as they don't try anything too controversial.
That also would help the lib dems,proberly with a new leader to get back the red liberals voters and that would help the tories.
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
If those R&T figures are correct, my local election model forecasts the Tories winning the popular vote by 8.4% next year, close to the Fisher and L&N models.
Put it this way, no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position...
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Been away all week in Slovakia, enjoying wonderful 28 degree weather, combined with dental treatment, but will be right back on the button for the Euros tomorrow night...
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2 mins Two Liberal Democrat MPs have told the Sunday Times that Nick Clegg should resign. One says DPM is leading the party to electoral suicide
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
If those R&T figures are correct, my local election model forecasts the Tories winning the popular vote by 8.4% next year, close to the Fisher and L&N models.
Put it this way, no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position...
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Been away all week in Slovakia, enjoying wonderful 28 degree weather, combined with dental treatment, but will be right back on the button for the Euros tomorrow night...
Fancy doing a thread on that?
The no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position bit, not the Slovakia bit.
@ShippersUnbound: David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
Does he really believe that or is it just another 'do something' wail?
Are voters really going to be persuaded by a vote in two years, rather than three? In any case, it's not Europe for most UKIP voters (and for those it is, there's probably little that can be done).
On the other hand, promising a vote by 2017 does at least give the possibility of successful negotiations; knocking half the time off that makes it far harder and increases the risk that the other EU countries won't take it seriously.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 55 secs IDS also told me that he found on doorstep that lots of people didn't even know Cameron has promised an in-out referendum for 2017
@ShippersUnbound: David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
Davis was in the army, wasn't he. Like Mercer, he seems to put a very low value on teamwork and cohesion. Is that a comment on today's military of just them?
@janemerrick23: Westminster hen-house not very calm place to be this weekend. Lots of Tory, Labour and LibDem headless chickens squawking around Ukip fox
We have multiple Lib Dems calling for Nick Clegg to resign, various Shadow cabinet members admitting Ed is a problem, and David Davis
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 1 min John Pugh and Adrian Sanders are the two Lib Dems who have broken cover. Pugh claims 12 Lib Dem MPs want Clegg out now
I don't think there needs to be an election if the Lib-Dems leave the coalition. The Tories can govern the last 6-9 months as a minority government, as long as they don't try anything too controversial.
That also would help the lib dems,proberly with a new leader to get back the red liberals voters and that would help the tories.
Only Cable can bring the Red Liberals back - but not all of them. Very few people knows who Farron is.
But Alexander the Great will really destroy this once great party.
I trusted the LibDems to get at least 1 MEP-to the extent I backed it.I was under the misapprehension they had a core vote.They have become the new "disappeared" of the old SDP.Cable is increasingly sounding more social democrat.Alexander is one of the Quad,that introduced the hated bedroom tax for example so he has blood on his hands.Clegg is keen to portray his party as a party of government.If Clegg's party ends up with nil points across the UK as a whole.it's more about a party that benefits Clegg and his love of the capitalist baubles of office than the very existence of his party.
This led me to back Farron some time back at 5-2.Lamb is a contender,as Mike suggested but I think he values his health more.It's not a vintage crop to choose so it's a process of elimination as to the least worst option.
If Louise Mensch said that UKIP are sexist and racist then she's rather daft. I can't be bothered to check as it doesn't matter. A party that really makes headway as they have isn't going to be intrinsically so.
I suspect that UKIP have made headway in the way that they have mostly because the political debate has degenerated to a pantomime.
It's so disappointing that a competent (and at times brilliant) politician should find herself unable to rise above the stage-show.
If Louise Mensch said that UKIP are sexist and racist then she's rather daft. I can't be bothered to check as it doesn't matter. A party that really makes headway as they have isn't going to be intrinsically so.
If Louise Mensch said that UKIP are sexist and racist then she's rather daft. I can't be bothered to check as it doesn't matter. A party that really makes headway as they have isn't going to be intrinsically so.
I suspect that UKIP have made headway in the way that they have mostly because the political debate has degenerated to a pantomime.
It's so disappointing that a competent (and at times brilliant) politician should find herself unable to rise above the stage-show.
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
If those R&T figures are correct, my local election model forecasts the Tories winning the popular vote by 8.4% next year, close to the Fisher and L&N models.
Put it this way, no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position...
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Been away all week in Slovakia, enjoying wonderful 28 degree weather, combined with dental treatment, but will be right back on the button for the Euros tomorrow night...
Fancy doing a thread on that?
The no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position bit, not the Slovakia bit.
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
When was that ? When those greedy petrol tanker drivers were holding the country to ransom ?
@ShippersUnbound: David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
Does he really believe that or is it just another 'do something' wail?
Are voters really going to be persuaded by a vote in two years, rather than three? In any case, it's not Europe for most UKIP voters (and for those it is, there's probably little that can be done).
On the other hand, promising a vote by 2017 does at least give the possibility of successful negotiations; knocking half the time off that makes it far harder and increases the risk that the other EU countries won't take it seriously.
Davis is a prat.
Of course Davis doesn't believe it.
His sole aim is to maximise the chances of Cameron losing the GE.
Nothing else is of any interest to him.
Fortunately he will have little impact as very few people will take any notice of him.
The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.
Once the wider public get to see Ed then yes I think UKIP have every chance. As for policy unpicking, how do you think the WWC that are heading to UKIP in their droves will react when Ed tells them they are too stupid to have a vote on the EU?
I don't think there needs to be an election if the Lib-Dems leave the coalition. The Tories can govern the last 6-9 months as a minority government, as long as they don't try anything too controversial.
Interesting thought though, Tories could run a minority government using the Salmond Defence of "if only we had a majority, then see what we would have done" while blaming everyone else for whatever is going wrong and claiming the benefits of anything going right.
Cameron would be able to follow his natural instincts for doing as little as possible, legislation will be negligible, Parliament would be in virtual recess to stop anyone questioning him or holding the government to account. Not much different from now.
The national equivalent vote has the Tories on 30% — seven points down since the last general election but better than after the 2013 local contests — with Labour just ahead on 31%, a single point up on 2010.
UKIP takes third place for a second year running with an 18% share — four points lower than in 2013 — easily beating the Liberal Democrats, whose 11% is less than half that achieved four years ago. That is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since our records begin in 1979.
If those R&T figures are correct, my local election model forecasts the Tories winning the popular vote by 8.4% next year, close to the Fisher and L&N models.
Put it this way, no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position...
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Been away all week in Slovakia, enjoying wonderful 28 degree weather, combined with dental treatment, but will be right back on the button for the Euros tomorrow night...
Fancy doing a thread on that?
The no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position bit, not the Slovakia bit.
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
When was that ? When those greedy petrol tanker drivers were holding the country to ransom ?
I think Rod meant the 2000 local election result VS 2001 general election result?
I know I'm coming over all Tim but given Cameron's problems with the fairer sex, I've long thought it could be a great tactic to put a woman up against him. But it's thin soil in the LD ranks. Swinson is lightweight and will probably lose her seat; Brooke and Teather are standing down and Munt and Burt have tough fights for re-election. That leaves Willott and Featherstone, who I give a decent chance of holding on, but much as I really like Featherstone neither of these has a potential leader profile.
Was she talking about you Sunil? Have you been twittering out of hours?
No, I just made one tweet today re. Chvrches (synthpop band!).
You're quite sure? No innocent train related comments about unreliable old boilers, that Mrs Mench may have misinterpreted as an attack on the sisterhood?
If Louise Mensch said that UKIP are sexist and racist then she's rather daft. I can't be bothered to check as it doesn't matter. A party that really makes headway as they have isn't going to be intrinsically so.
I suspect that UKIP have made headway in the way that they have mostly because the political debate has degenerated to a pantomime.
It's so disappointing that a competent (and at times brilliant) politician should find herself unable to rise above the stage-show.
Are we talking about Me Me Mensch ?
Well I'm quite sexy still and a bit racy. Come and get me Mensch, but please don't remain a mensch, be a lady.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.
Once the wider public get to see Ed then yes I think UKIP have every chance. As for policy unpicking, how do you think the WWC that are heading to UKIP in their droves will react when Ed tells them they are too stupid to have a vote on the EU?
UKIP voters don't give an XXXX about Europe. They themselves say so. All they talk about is Joe Foreigner.
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.
Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.
Minor parties that are not expected to form a government have a great deal of leeway on their policy platform. I don't think it will be a significant factor.
What will determine whether Labour holds Rotherham comfortably or whether UKIP run them close (or better) will be the extent to which the voters there believe Labour speaks for them and doesn't take them for granted. Detailed policy is by the by.
Toby Helm @tobyhelm · 2 mins The plot against Nick Clegg can't be totally dismissed. How do the Lib Dems keep their radicalism inside the coalition? Will it break it?
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.
Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
Rod, we're hearing a lot today about Labour marginals Vs UNS - The idea being that because Labour is doing better in the marginals and because of UKIP UNS won't matter in 2015.
The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.
Once the wider public get to see Ed then yes I think UKIP have every chance. As for policy unpicking, how do you think the WWC that are heading to UKIP in their droves will react when Ed tells them they are too stupid to have a vote on the EU?
UKIP voters don't give an XXXX about Europe. They themselves say so. All they talk about is Joe Foreigner.
Great to see that even after Thursday people like you still don't get it.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?
Very clever Nino but you still talk a load of bollocks.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?
No I'm not a racist - for example unlike most Asians, I am open to marrying a non-Asian. I am mostly supportive of UKIP because I'm a BOOer (Better-Off-Out) regarding the EU. You may be interested to know I voted Tory in the Local election, I only voted UKIP for the Euro election.
Vince Cable would be a brilliant replacement for Nick Clegg IMO. The party might only lose 5-10 seats next year instead of 20.
The Lds aren't unpopular because of Nick Clegg, they're unpopular because of the shift from opposition to government and their inexperience meaning they handle it poorly. Clegg is personally very identified with this, but he's only a small part of the problem.
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.
Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
Rod, we're hearing a lot today about Labour marginals Vs UNS - The idea being that because Labour is doing better in the marginals and because of UKIP UNS won't matter in 2015.
Anything to add?
What we've heard today on here is a certain amount of nonsense designed to cause confusion.
Ashcroft has issued a comprehensive poll of Con marginals showing that the swing in these seats is precisely identical to the national swing in national polls.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.
Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
Rod, we're hearing a lot today about Labour marginals Vs UNS - The idea being that because Labour is doing better in the marginals and because of UKIP UNS won't matter in 2015.
Anything to add?
I never believe marginals polls. I didn't for the Tories last time, and I don't now. Too many statistical traps for the unwary.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?
No I'm not a racist - for example unlike most Asians, I am open to marrying a non-Asian. I am mostly supportive of UKIP because I'm a BOOer (Better-Off-Out) regarding the EU. You may be interested to know I voted Tory in the Local election, I only voted UKIP for the Euro election.
I'm not a racist sunil,I am open to marrying a Asian women,but round here if I did that,I would proberly have my knee's capped ;-) who is the real racist ?
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?
Very clever Nino but you still talk a load of bollocks.
Thanks, but unfortunately Sunil has taken me seriously.
But, Farage was asked was he ashamed of his origins by a foreign journalist on Thursday and Mrs Farage has caused chaos in media circles by being German.
I don't think Farage knows what's he's stumbled upon what with that rally last weekend and the carnival last week.
Keep White people out! There's too many of 'em here already!
The UNS on the whole country tells us bollocks. It is the Marginals which count.
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.
Telling the people of Rotherham that they don't matter (and acting like that) is precisely why the voters there are deserting Labour.
So, you think UKIP will win in Rotherham after the glare of policy un-pickings.
Minor parties that are not expected to form a government have a great deal of leeway on their policy platform. I don't think it will be a significant factor.
What will determine whether Labour holds Rotherham comfortably or whether UKIP run them close (or better) will be the extent to which the voters there believe Labour speaks for them and doesn't take them for granted. Detailed policy is by the by.
The Rotherham Labour Party might not be a happy ship.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?
No I'm not a racist - for example unlike most Asians, I am open to marrying a non-Asian. I am mostly supportive of UKIP because I'm a BOOer (Better-Off-Out) regarding the EU. You may be interested to know I voted Tory in the Local election, I only voted UKIP for the Euro election.
I'm not a racist sunil,I am open to marrying a Asian women,but round here if I did that,I would proberly have my knee's capped ;-) who's the real racist ?
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987) Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992) Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001) Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
If the swing over the next year is in line with the average of the above then Con will lead Lab by 13% at GE 2015.
Yes, but my model goes back to 1973, and includes those Oppositions who did go on to win (or were behind and didn't), and is based on the average NEV lead during the whole parliament.
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
Rod, we're hearing a lot today about Labour marginals Vs UNS - The idea being that because Labour is doing better in the marginals and because of UKIP UNS won't matter in 2015.
Anything to add?
I never believe marginals polls. I didn't for the Tories last time, and I don't now. Too many statistical traps for the unwary.
Interesting. I do like a good marginals poll I must say.
Comments
Lib Dem PPC Jackie Porter: we've got a good story to tell but nobody's listening any more
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins ·
Lib Dem PPC Jackie Porter on BBC News now
Coming out of the woodwork now.
Lab 158,635 (48.48%)
UKIP 48,849 (14.93%)
Con 47,781 (14.60%)
LD 33,056 (10.10%)
Green 22,797 (6.97%)
TUSC 2,093 (0.64%)
Ind 1,648 (0.50%)
Changes since 2010 locals (held on same day as general election):
Lab +3.07%
UKIP +12.94%
Con -3.92%
LD -17.50%
Green +4.66%
TUSC +0.59%
Ind +0.17%
Maybe slightly disappointing for Labour that they couldn't reach 50% given that they were on 45.41% in 2010.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10854486/Voters-say-Ed-Miliband-is-a-problem-shadow-minister-warns.html
Labour only needs to worry about 25 Labour held marginals and 75 Tory-LD-SNP-PC marginals.
The rest don't matter. Including Rotherham.
.@Nigel_Farage: "Now I will destroy the Tory party" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html … < eerie echo of Robert Kilroy-Silk - more anti-Tory than anti-EU
I still think at some point the UKIP bubble is going to burst...
Lab slip up in Liverpool! Lab = gerrard!!
A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday revealed that 31 per cent of Labour supporters back the party at the ballot box ‘because of’ Miliband, while 36 per cent do so ‘despite’ him.
By contrast, 48 per cent of Tories back the party because of Cameron, and 18 per cent support the party despite him.
The leadership popularity gap was repeated when voters were asked if they would be more likely to support a party if it had a new leader. Voters said ‘yes’ by a margin of 26 per cent in the case of Labour, compared to a margin of 13 per cent for the Tories.
The most common criticism of Miliband in the poll, which saw 1,017 adults questioned online on Friday, is that he lacks charisma and the ‘common touch’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html
Lab 31,735 (44.70%)
Con 16,903 (23.81%)
UKIP 10,320 (14.54%)
Green 5,139 (7.24%)
BNP 2,068 (2.91%)
LD 1,689 (2.38%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +2.55%
Con -4.65%
UKIP +13.87%
Green +5.78%
BNP -1.65%
LD -15.26%
6.4
5.0
4.6 - Budget week
3.0
4.8
4.4
4.0
4.75
4.4
3.0
1.8
2.0 - This week
Not too hard to spot the trend is it?
It's all too easy to get lost in the here and now - what is noteworthy is just how rapid the change has been. The above covers a period of just under 3 months.
Hope he's watching what he say's privately to journo's when he's had a drink...
David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters
Which will be their worst result since 1979!!!
Put it this way, no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position...
Comparisons:
Kinnock 1986: +3% (lost by 12% in 1987)
Kinnock 1991: +3% (lost by 8% in 1992)
Hague 2000: +8% (lost by 9% in 2001)
Howard 2004: +11% (lost by 3% in 2005)
Been away all week in Slovakia, enjoying wonderful 28 degree weather, combined with dental treatment, but will be right back on the button for the Euros tomorrow night...
Two Liberal Democrat MPs have told the Sunday Times that Nick Clegg should resign. One says DPM is leading the party to electoral suicide
Can I hear jaws music ;-)
Your 8.4% is in line with my 10% projection posted on here many times!
Hope your teeth are ok!!
The no Opposition only one point ahead on R&T's NEV has ever gone on to win from such a position bit, not the Slovakia bit.
LD Labour
Cathedrals 1642 1216
Chaucer 1475 1765
East Walworth 612 1693
Grange 1150 1160
Newington 1035 2299
Riverside 1589 807
Rotherite 934 1370
S Bermondsey 1234 1464
Surrey Docks 1039 712
10710 12486
Southwark and Bermondsey. Local Elections 2014. Highest candidate votes only.
Are voters really going to be persuaded by a vote in two years, rather than three? In any case, it's not Europe for most UKIP voters (and for those it is, there's probably little that can be done).
On the other hand, promising a vote by 2017 does at least give the possibility of successful negotiations; knocking half the time off that makes it far harder and increases the risk that the other EU countries won't take it seriously.
Davis is a prat.
IDS also told me that he found on doorstep that lots of people didn't even know Cameron has promised an in-out referendum for 2017
lol
We have multiple Lib Dems calling for Nick Clegg to resign, various Shadow cabinet members admitting Ed is a problem, and David Davis
I think the PM will be happy with that...
John Pugh and Adrian Sanders are the two Lib Dems who have broken cover. Pugh claims 12 Lib Dem MPs want Clegg out now
But Alexander the Great will really destroy this once great party.
'The only good story, Honey, is knifing the Tory who leads your party !'
Ever thought of engaging brain before opening mouth?
Thanks
This led me to back Farron some time back at 5-2.Lamb is a contender,as Mike suggested but I think he values his health more.It's not a vintage crop to choose so it's a process of elimination as to the least worst option.
I suspect that UKIP have made headway in the way that they have mostly because the political debate has degenerated to a pantomime.
It's so disappointing that a competent (and at times brilliant) politician should find herself unable to rise above the stage-show.
Tomorrow night - Ave it announces the GE 2015 result!
Lab 65,205 (57.41%)
Green 14,546 (12.81%)
LD 13,045 (11.49%)
Con 9,085 (8.00%)
UKIP 8,700 (7.66%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +10.98%
Green +8.02%
LD -20.47%
Con -4.11%
UKIP +6.74%
When was that ? When those greedy petrol tanker drivers were holding the country to ransom ?
His sole aim is to maximise the chances of Cameron losing the GE.
Nothing else is of any interest to him.
Fortunately he will have little impact as very few people will take any notice of him.
Cameron would be able to follow his natural instincts for doing as little as possible, legislation will be negligible, Parliament would be in virtual recess to stop anyone questioning him or holding the government to account. Not much different from now.
http://xkcd.com/1122/
You.
Let me explain.
UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.
A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.
Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.
Are you one?
Labour are toast though, whichever way you slice it...
What will determine whether Labour holds Rotherham comfortably or whether UKIP run them close (or better) will be the extent to which the voters there believe Labour speaks for them and doesn't take them for granted. Detailed policy is by the by.
The plot against Nick Clegg can't be totally dismissed. How do the Lib Dems keep their radicalism inside the coalition? Will it break it?
Anything to add?
Labour need Clegg to survive. New leader could revive party and win back defectors.
Yep.
Ashcroft has issued a comprehensive poll of Con marginals showing that the swing in these seats is precisely identical to the national swing in national polls.
Perhaps this is part of the reason why he suggested taking in Syrian Christian refugees.
Lab +7.79%
Con -5.93%
UKIP +11.86%
LD -14.53%
Green +5.26%
Swing, Con to Lab: 6.86%
Labour need a swing of 2.5% to win Bury North.
But, Farage was asked was he ashamed of his origins by a foreign journalist on Thursday and Mrs Farage has caused chaos in media circles by being German.
I don't think Farage knows what's he's stumbled upon what with that rally last weekend and the carnival last week.
Keep White people out! There's too many of 'em here already!
http://www.rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk/news/92997/bluebell-wood-s-sarah-champion-proud-to-be-labour-candidate.aspx