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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll on how Euro voters will vote next year

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  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Well strike me down with a fevver,Tories' response to poor elections,bang on about Europe.
    You bang on.if you must, I'm banging off to the hammock.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/10/julian-lewis-mp-the-conservative-case-for-an-eu-referendum-before-2015.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Before I go to bed, can I give a big thank you to Lord Ashcroft for his polls. He provides the free opium to us poll addicts.


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The name of the Labour candidate in Shaw, Oldham?

    Hermione Andromeda Lostwithiel St John Spiggott.

    http://www.oldham.gov.uk/info/200038/elections/1364/election_results_may_2014
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Ninoinoz said:

    MikeK said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.

    Some Kippers are racist and sexist.
    Yes, Sunil.

    You.

    Let me explain.

    UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.

    A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.

    Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.

    Are you one?
    Very clever Nino but you still talk a load of bollocks.
    Thanks, but unfortunately Sunil has taken me seriously.

    But, Farage was asked was he ashamed of his origins by a foreign journalist on Thursday and Mrs Farage has caused chaos in media circles by being German.

    I don't think Farage knows what's he's stumbled upon what with that rally last weekend and the carnival last week.

    Keep White people out! There's too many of 'em here already!
    Unrestricted immigration from the predominantly white EU, restricted immigration from the predominantly non-white Commonwealth. Do you agree with that?


  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Having re-engaged with politics as a betting arena over the last week or two, I have one major view to express. Again.

    Ed Miliband is not up to being Prime Minister. He was a ridiculous appointment, foisted upon the Labour Party by the Unions. The individual party members and the Constituencies both wanted his brother. He's not up to it.

    Whether David would have been any good is now a redundant question. Labour are stuck with Ed. He's hopeless. OGH from time to time expresses the view that Labour chose the better brother. Npnsense! The public don't like him or get him.

    The GE is now less than 12 months away. Unless something radical happens, it will be a hung parliament again - and I think the likeliest coalition is the existing one.

    It would be extraordinary - yet wise- for Labour to change their leader at this late stage. There is no easy mechanism. In the unlikely event that this happened soon, there are only two plausible replacements for Ed as Labour leader and PM, in my view.


    Darling and Harman. Cooper might work but I'm not convinced - and she's married to Balls who is a no-hoper.

    I think a late swap would have to be to an elder statesman to be effective, But I can't see it happening , under Labour party "Rules".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.

    Some Kippers are racist and sexist.
    Yes, Sunil.

    You.

    Let me explain.

    UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.

    A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.

    Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.

    Are you one?
    No I'm not a racist - for example unlike most Asians, I am open to marrying a non-Asian. I am mostly supportive of UKIP because I'm a BOOer (Better-Off-Out) regarding the EU. You may be interested to know I voted Tory in the Local election, I only voted UKIP for the Euro election.
    I'm not a racist sunil,I am open to marrying a Asian women,but round here if I did that,I would proberly have my knee's capped ;-) who is the real racist ?
    I never ever wanted to marry an Asian woman, despite my parents' best attempts to make it happen.
  • EDWEDW Posts: 6
    good to hear Tripod carving himself a Clegg steak
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    stjohn said:

    Having re-engaged with politics as a betting arena over the last week or two, I have one major view to express. Again.

    Ed Miliband is not up to being Prime Minister. He was a ridiculous appointment, foisted upon the Labour Party by the Unions. The individual party members and the Constituencies both wanted his brother. He's not up to it.

    Whether David would have been any good is now a redundant question. Labour are stuck with Ed. He's hopeless. OGH from time to time expresses the view that Labour chose the better brother. Npnsense! The public don't like him or get him.

    The GE is now less than 12 months away. Unless something radical happens, it will be a hung parliament again - and I think the likeliest coalition is the existing one.

    It would be extraordinary - yet wise- for Labour to change their leader at this late stage. There is no easy mechanism. In the unlikely event that this happened soon, there are only two plausible replacements for Ed as Labour leader and PM, in my view.


    Darling and Harman. Cooper might work but I'm not convinced - and she's married to Balls who is a no-hoper.

    I think a late swap would have to be to an elder statesman to be effective, But I can't see it happening , under Labour party "Rules".

    Please let it be Harman, Labour would be annihilated.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Ninoinoz said:

    MikeK said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.

    Some Kippers are racist and sexist.
    Yes, Sunil.

    You.

    Let me explain.

    UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.

    A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.

    Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.

    Are you one?
    Very clever Nino but you still talk a load of bollocks.
    Thanks, but unfortunately Sunil has taken me seriously.

    But, Farage was asked was he ashamed of his origins by a foreign journalist on Thursday and Mrs Farage has caused chaos in media circles by being German.

    I don't think Farage knows what's he's stumbled upon what with that rally last weekend and the carnival last week.

    Keep White people out! There's too many of 'em here already!
    The colour doesn't matter. Mass immigration has helped push up house prices and rents, keep wages down, and increase unemployment among the low skilled.

    Labour and the Lib Dems don't accept there's a problem; the Tories haven't been able to get a grip on it - and the people who have lost out (or those who believe they have, which isn't necessarily the same lot), are not happy.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    stjohn said:

    Having re-engaged with politics as a betting arena over the last week or two, I have one major view to express. Again.

    Ed Miliband is not up to being Prime Minister. He was a ridiculous appointment, foisted upon the Labour Party by the Unions. The individual party members and the Constituencies both wanted his brother. He's not up to it.

    Whether David would have been any good is now a redundant question. Labour are stuck with Ed. He's hopeless. OGH from time to time expresses the view that Labour chose the better brother. Npnsense! The public don't like him or get him.

    The GE is now less than 12 months away. Unless something radical happens, it will be a hung parliament again - and I think the likeliest coalition is the existing one.

    It would be extraordinary - yet wise- for Labour to change their leader at this late stage. There is no easy mechanism. In the unlikely event that this happened soon, there are only two plausible replacements for Ed as Labour leader and PM, in my view.


    Darling and Harman. Cooper might work but I'm not convinced - and she's married to Balls who is a no-hoper.

    I think a late swap would have to be to an elder statesman to be effective, But I can't see it happening , under Labour party "Rules".

    I'm not convinced that's entirely right. For all ed's failings, the party were offered a ridiculous choice: the brothers or Burnham. Where was a female or black candidate?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808

    stjohn said:

    Having re-engaged with politics as a betting arena over the last week or two, I have one major view to express. Again.

    Ed Miliband is not up to being Prime Minister. He was a ridiculous appointment, foisted upon the Labour Party by the Unions. The individual party members and the Constituencies both wanted his brother. He's not up to it.

    Whether David would have been any good is now a redundant question. Labour are stuck with Ed. He's hopeless. OGH from time to time expresses the view that Labour chose the better brother. Npnsense! The public don't like him or get him.

    The GE is now less than 12 months away. Unless something radical happens, it will be a hung parliament again - and I think the likeliest coalition is the existing one.

    It would be extraordinary - yet wise- for Labour to change their leader at this late stage. There is no easy mechanism. In the unlikely event that this happened soon, there are only two plausible replacements for Ed as Labour leader and PM, in my view.


    Darling and Harman. Cooper might work but I'm not convinced - and she's married to Balls who is a no-hoper.

    I think a late swap would have to be to an elder statesman to be effective, But I can't see it happening , under Labour party "Rules".

    I'm not convinced that's entirely right. For all ed's failings, the party were offered a ridiculous choice: the brothers or Burnham. Where was a female or credible black candidate?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    I know plenty of mixed Asian-British couples, it doesn't seem to be a big issue in terms of race here in Leicester to either community.



    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.

    Some Kippers are racist and sexist.
    Yes, Sunil.

    You.

    Let me explain.

    UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.

    A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.

    Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.

    Are you one?
    No I'm not a racist - for example unlike most Asians, I am open to marrying a non-Asian. I am mostly supportive of UKIP because I'm a BOOer (Better-Off-Out) regarding the EU. You may be interested to know I voted Tory in the Local election, I only voted UKIP for the Euro election.
    I'm not a racist sunil,I am open to marrying a Asian women,but round here if I did that,I would proberly have my knee's capped ;-) who's the real racist ?
    Proberly the 2 cities have different communities of asia that settled here,plus different religions.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Interesting set of polls - Survation should be filed in the bin. The Tories are certainly not that low.

    I'm going to dig into Ashcroft tomorrow, see the Euro results, then place my bets for GE2015.

    Fett's Four will no doubt feature.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    The media have been reporting that UKIP won the most votes in Castle Point, but in fact the figures were:

    Con 8,073
    UKIP 6,431
    Canvey Island Independents 5,543
    Lab 3,832

    They must be assuming that Canvey Island Independents voters would support UKIP in a general election. UKIP didn't stand in any of the wards which CII were contesting.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited May 2014

    Ninoinoz said:

    MikeK said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.

    Some Kippers are racist and sexist.
    Yes, Sunil.

    You.

    Let me explain.

    UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.

    A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.

    Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.

    Are you one?
    Very clever Nino but you still talk a load of bollocks.
    Thanks, but unfortunately Sunil has taken me seriously.

    But, Farage was asked was he ashamed of his origins by a foreign journalist on Thursday and Mrs Farage has caused chaos in media circles by being German.

    I don't think Farage knows what's he's stumbled upon what with that rally last weekend and the carnival last week.

    Keep White people out! There's too many of 'em here already!
    Unrestricted immigration from the predominantly white EU, restricted immigration from the predominantly non-white Commonwealth. Do you agree with that?
    That's the status quo.

    And was put there by Labour and Conservative Governments, whom we all know can't be racist. After all, they've been acting like they can't be for the last two weeks.
    youtu.be/bwNlGt8tTp0
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.

    Some Kippers are racist and sexist.
    Yes, Sunil.

    You.

    Let me explain.

    UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.

    A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.

    Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.

    Are you one?
    No I'm not a racist - for example unlike most Asians, I am open to marrying a non-Asian. I am mostly supportive of UKIP because I'm a BOOer (Better-Off-Out) regarding the EU. You may be interested to know I voted Tory in the Local election, I only voted UKIP for the Euro election.
    I'm not a racist sunil,I am open to marrying a Asian women,but round here if I did that,I would proberly have my knee's capped ;-) who is the real racist ?
    I never ever wanted to marry an Asian woman, despite my parents' best attempts to make it happen.
    I don't know why,in my area some really hot british Pakistani women ;-)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton · 58 secs
    Labour need Clegg to survive. New leader could revive party and win back defectors.

    Yep.

    Right again Tyke. Labour need to start soft-pedalling on Clegg. He's the man who keeps the Red Liberals red.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    AndyJS said:

    Vince Cable would be a brilliant replacement for Nick Clegg IMO. The party might only lose 5-10 seats next year instead of 20.

    Vince as leader would I think eradicate their credibility for 20 years. He's right where it doesn't matter and woefully wrong where it does. The LDs are a party of Government now - albeit in a secondary role. They may well stay that way too. Clegg, Alexander, and others have risen to that task, but Cable hasn't. He's a great back-bencher, but a poor minister.

    Clegg has done something outstanding - hard to say whether he's done it well, but it's still outstanding. Real coalition politics was regarded by many, if not most, as unworkable.

    The LDs can still squander their very hard won place, and they do precisely that by electing a leader such as Cable who would re-establish them as a protest party.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Maybe not. She would not do worse than the alternatives, and would be a sharp and appealing contrast in the debates, that both Cameron and Farage would struggle with.

    I put a few quid on at good odds a while back.

    any defenestration of Clegg or Miliband would have to be foĺowed by a coronation, there simply would not be time for an open contest.

    stjohn said:

    Having re-engaged with politics as a betting arena over the last week or two, I have one major view to express. Again.

    Ed Miliband is not up to being Prime Minister. He was a ridiculous appointment, foisted upon the Labour Party by the Unions. The individual party members and the Constituencies both wanted his brother. He's not up to it.

    Whether David would have been any good is now a redundant question. Labour are stuck with Ed. He's hopeless. OGH from time to time expresses the view that Labour chose the better brother. Npnsense! The public don't like him or get him.

    The GE is now less than 12 months away. Unless something radical happens, it will be a hung parliament again - and I think the likeliest coalition is the existing one.

    It would be extraordinary - yet wise- for Labour to change their leader at this late stage. There is no easy mechanism. In the unlikely event that this happened soon, there are only two plausible replacements for Ed as Labour leader and PM, in my view.


    Darling and Harman. Cooper might work but I'm not convinced - and she's married to Balls who is a no-hoper.

    I think a late swap would have to be to an elder statesman to be effective, But I can't see it happening , under Labour party "Rules".

    Please let it be Harman, Labour would be annihilated.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    edited May 2014

    stjohn said:

    Having re-engaged with politics as a betting arena over the last week or two, I have one major view to express. Again.

    Ed Miliband is not up to being Prime Minister. He was a ridiculous appointment, foisted upon the Labour Party by the Unions. The individual party members and the Constituencies both wanted his brother. He's not up to it.

    Whether David would have been any good is now a redundant question. Labour are stuck with Ed. He's hopeless. OGH from time to time expresses the view that Labour chose the better brother. Npnsense! The public don't like him or get him.

    The GE is now less than 12 months away. Unless something radical happens, it will be a hung parliament again - and I think the likeliest coalition is the existing one.

    It would be extraordinary - yet wise- for Labour to change their leader at this late stage. There is no easy mechanism. In the unlikely event that this happened soon, there are only two plausible replacements for Ed as Labour leader and PM, in my view.


    Darling and Harman. Cooper might work but I'm not convinced - and she's married to Balls who is a no-hoper.

    I think a late swap would have to be to an elder statesman to be effective, But I can't see it happening , under Labour party "Rules".

    I'm not convinced that's entirely right. For all ed's failings, the party were offered a ridiculous choice: the brothers or Burnham. Where was a female or black candidate?
    I assume that's a joke.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903

    stjohn said:

    Having re-engaged with politics as a betting arena over the last week or two, I have one major view to express. Again.

    Ed Miliband is not up to being Prime Minister. He was a ridiculous appointment, foisted upon the Labour Party by the Unions. The individual party members and the Constituencies both wanted his brother. He's not up to it.

    Whether David would have been any good is now a redundant question. Labour are stuck with Ed. He's hopeless. OGH from time to time expresses the view that Labour chose the better brother. Npnsense! The public don't like him or get him.

    The GE is now less than 12 months away. Unless something radical happens, it will be a hung parliament again - and I think the likeliest coalition is the existing one.

    It would be extraordinary - yet wise- for Labour to change their leader at this late stage. There is no easy mechanism. In the unlikely event that this happened soon, there are only two plausible replacements for Ed as Labour leader and PM, in my view.


    Darling and Harman. Cooper might work but I'm not convinced - and she's married to Balls who is a no-hoper.

    I think a late swap would have to be to an elder statesman to be effective, But I can't see it happening , under Labour party "Rules".

    I'm not convinced that's entirely right. For all ed's failings, the party were offered a ridiculous choice: the brothers or Burnham. Where was a female or black candidate?
    I assume that's a joke.
    So good, you said it twice!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    @stjohn

    Yes, Labour are heading for a heavy defeat next year. Their leader is an atrocious twerp who could easily shed another million votes for Labour between now and polling day...
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    @Tykejohno

    "I don't know why,in my area some really hot british Pakistani women"

    Possibly because if you have Celtic genes your ancestors came from the same place (Northern India/Pakistan)?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Maybe not. She would not do worse than the alternatives, and would be a sharp and appealing contrast in the debates, that both Cameron and Farage would struggle with.

    I put a few quid on at good odds a while back.

    any defenestration of Clegg or Miliband would have to be foĺowed by a coronation, there simply would not be time for an open contest.


    stjohn said:

    Having re-engaged with politics as a betting arena over the last week or two, I have one major view to express. Again.

    Ed Miliband is not up to being Prime Minister. He was a ridiculous appointment, foisted upon the Labour Party by the Unions. The individual party members and the Constituencies both wanted his brother. He's not up to it.

    Whether David would have been any good is now a redundant question. Labour are stuck with Ed. He's hopeless. OGH from time to time expresses the view that Labour chose the better brother. Npnsense! The public don't like him or get him.

    The GE is now less than 12 months away. Unless something radical happens, it will be a hung parliament again - and I think the likeliest coalition is the existing one.

    It would be extraordinary - yet wise- for Labour to change their leader at this late stage. There is no easy mechanism. In the unlikely event that this happened soon, there are only two plausible replacements for Ed as Labour leader and PM, in my view.


    Darling and Harman. Cooper might work but I'm not convinced - and she's married to Balls who is a no-hoper.

    I think a late swap would have to be to an elder statesman to be effective, But I can't see it happening , under Labour party "Rules".

    Please let it be Harman, Labour would be annihilated.
    Garage would slaughter her, even I would.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Monksfield.

    Dianne Abbott stood. Female. Black. She got 7.42% of the vote.

    You may regret that more capable female or more capable black candidates failed to stand.

    I regret that the candidate clearly favoured by the lLbour membership and the Labour constituency parties was stopped by the Unions voting for "their man", who has proved not up to the job.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    MikeK said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    Louise Mensch — UKIP are sexist and racist.

    Some Kippers are racist and sexist.
    Yes, Sunil.

    You.

    Let me explain.

    UKIP wants the end to unrestricted immigration. And where is the only place unrestricted comes from? The EU. It doesn't seem to have been noticed, but most Europeans are White. In other words, they look like Farage and his wife. Not really surprising, as he is of French origin and his wife is German.

    A lot of comment has been expended on how Cameron faces a non-racist challenge from the Right. Incredibly, Farage has taken race out of the immigration debate by wishing to block the entry of White people into this country. No wonder anti-racists are confused. They've never had to deal with this before.

    Interestingly, I've found non-White Ukippers enthusiastically supporting this policy because of the fear that cheap Eastern Europeans will be employed instead of them.

    Are you one?
    Very clever Nino but you still talk a load of bollocks.
    Thanks, but unfortunately Sunil has taken me seriously.

    But, Farage was asked was he ashamed of his origins by a foreign journalist on Thursday and Mrs Farage has caused chaos in media circles by being German.

    I don't think Farage knows what's he's stumbled upon what with that rally last weekend and the carnival last week.

    Keep White people out! There's too many of 'em here already!
    Unrestricted immigration from the predominantly white EU, restricted immigration from the predominantly non-white Commonwealth. Do you agree with that?
    That's the status quo.

    And was put there by Labour and Conservative Governments, whom we all know can't be racist. After all, they've been acting like they can't be for the last two weeks.
    youtu.be/bwNlGt8tTp0
    Of course it's the status quo! Do you agree with that?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    It's blindingly obvious that David Miliband would have had a far better chance of winning the GE than Ed.

    Forget policies - he just looks and sounds much more credible as a PM than Ed - and polling confirms this by substantial margins.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    I can't believe that Tory voters wouldn't like to see Ed de-throned. The chances of a better leader aren't high, and it wouldn't be a seemly transition. However there is a small and narrow path for Labour to find a better leader. Certainly if you wanted to maximise Labour popularity in (say) 20 years time, independent of the interim, then I think the case for change would be stronger.

    The wonderful thing for the Tories is how enormously awful the possible list of Ed replacements is - Yvette (the best) surely can't get the gig. It's terrible for the country of course.

    (Incidentally this is an ongoing weakening of politicians generally but I think due to the hanger-on effect it's really bad for Labour at the moment)




  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    MikeL said:

    It's blindingly obvious that David Miliband would have had a far better chance of winning the GE than Ed.

    Forget policies - he just looks and sounds much more credible as a PM than Ed - and polling confirms this by substantial margins.

    But he'll be forever associated with that banana!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1241543/ANALYSIS-David-Miliband--pretender-serial-bottler.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Unionist stooges:

    ONLY one in four Scottish voters believes the SNP’s claims that an independent Scotland would become a member of the European Union by the time of the party’s proposed independence day in 2016.

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1414813.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_05_24
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    "Racists", all over the world show a basic flaw
    Humans are all so genetically close that "cross breeding is not only possible, but very often beneficial.
    Our real differences are cultural. and the human mind can overcome irrational fears.............possibly?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The fact that Tower Hamlets are still counting votes is just really embarrassing.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    It will be a deep and painful irony for the Labour Movement, if, as I suspect will happen, Labour fail to regain power at the next election because the Unions chose to foist an unelectable leader on the Party, against their will.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Stockport council, popular votes:

    Lab 23,678 (29.22%)
    LD 21,141 (26.09%)
    Con 18,804 (23.20%)
    UKIP 10,767 (13.29%)
    Green 3,412 (4.21%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +7.07%
    LD -14.70%
    Con -7.70%
    UKIP +12.97%
    Green +2.61%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    I see UKIP are eyeing Broxtowe as one of their top 20 targets. They should win it in the Euros, I think, but they will win lots of places. Bring it on!

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Sunil is quite correct about interracial marriage. We can see this in the marriage statistics by ethnic group. The share of each ethnic minority group marrying someone from outside their group:

    Mixed race: 77%
    Indian: 6%
    Pakistani: 4%
    Bangladeshi: 3%
    Other Asian: 18%
    Black Caribbean: 24%
    Black African: 16%
    Other black: 42%
    Chinese: 21%
    Other: 43%

    (Numbers are approximate as I am reading off a graph)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    stjohn said:

    It will be a deep and painful irony for the Labour Movement, if, as I suspect will happen, Labour fail to regain power at the next election because the Unions chose to foist an unelectable leader on the Party, against their will.

    Ed isn't compromised in the way some others are though.

    We can forgive DaveM's banana.

    However;

    Balls - I'm not sure we really want Gordo's attack dog back
    Darling - A good honest politician who has entirely failed to be honest and truthful about the financial crisis.
    Skippy - honesty killed him off
    Mrs Balls - didn't know - ok...
    Chukka - he seems ok to me, but somehow he has engendered a hate-club
    Tristram - why buy a plastic Tory when you can have the real thing!

    So it's tricky for Labour.

    However I wonder more generally at your original phrase "Labour Movement" - what might that be, and why? If Labour stick to hanging on to labels like that then they deserve to be doomed. They won that battle mostly - if they revisit it you might lose it the second time around!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Socrates said:

    Sunil is quite correct about interracial marriage. We can see this in the marriage statistics by ethnic group. The share of each ethnic minority group marrying someone from outside their group:

    Mixed race: 77%
    Indian: 6%
    Pakistani: 4%
    Bangladeshi: 3%
    Other Asian: 18%
    Black Caribbean: 24%
    Black African: 16%
    Other black: 42%
    Chinese: 21%
    Other: 43%

    (Numbers are approximate as I am reading off a graph)

    Interesting, thanks for posting. But what's the % for White British and White Other?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    AndyJS said:

    The fact that Tower Hamlets are still counting votes is just really embarrassing.

    Outsourcing to Dhaka? (only kidding!)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Results for the 10 Greater Manchester councils:

    Lab 304,985 (45.21%)
    Con 137,882 (20.44%)
    UKIP 100,297 (14.87%)
    LD 62,514 (9.27%)
    Green 40,272 (5.97%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +6.35%
    Con -6.26%
    UKIP +14.11%
    LD -14.97%
    Green +3.86%
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Omnium.

    I'm not sure why I said "Labour Movement" when I meant "Labour Party". I don't think there's anything to read into that. "My bad", as I think some people say now?

    I was a member of the Labour Party for a while but I'm not now.

    I am now happy not to be party affiliated and genuinely undecided how I will vote at the GE. I voted Labour this week in the Council and Euro elections, but not with any enthusiasm.



  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    White people are by far the most accepting of mixed marriages. On this subject, it's ethnic minorities who are rather intolerant.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    I see UKIP are eyeing Broxtowe as one of their top 20 targets. They should win it in the Euros, I think, but they will win lots of places. Bring it on!

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons

    So the choice is between a dripping wet Soubry, a metropolitan Labour candidate who has no love for this country and a UKIP realist.

    No wonder they are targeting it.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    AndyJS said:

    White people are by far the most accepting of mixed marriages. On this subject, it's ethnic minorities who are rather intolerant.

    And remind me, did the British in India integrate or remain separate?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited May 2014
    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    White people are by far the most accepting of mixed marriages. On this subject, it's ethnic minorities who are rather intolerant.

    And remind me, did the British in India integrate or remain separate?
    Yes and no, Nino.

    In the early days of the Company, British officers saw no problem in marrying Indian women, it was only during the Victorian era and especially after the Mutiny that sexual segregation became the norm.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    AndyJS said:

    The fact that Tower Hamlets are still counting votes is just really embarrassing.



    Outsourcing to Dhaka? (only kidding!)

    I voted in the East Midlands Euros, made sure I got the postal in for Rahman also though ;o)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    I see UKIP are eyeing Broxtowe as one of their top 20 targets. They should win it in the Euros, I think, but they will win lots of places. Bring it on!

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons

    So the choice is between a dripping wet Soubry, a metropolitan Labour candidate who has no love for this country and a UKIP realist.

    No wonder they are targeting it.

    I see UKIP are eyeing Broxtowe as one of their top 20 targets. They should win it in the Euros, I think, but they will win lots of places. Bring it on!

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons

    So the choice is between a dripping wet Soubry, a metropolitan Labour candidate who has no love for this country and a UKIP realist.

    No wonder they are targeting it.

    If Broxtowe is as Nick says it is, I can't see it being fertile UKIP ground .
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    White people are by far the most accepting of mixed marriages. On this subject, it's ethnic minorities who are rather intolerant.

    And remind me, did the British in India integrate or remain separate?
    Why have you suddenly started talking historically? I'm talking about now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Results for the 7 West Midlands metropolitan councils:

    Lab 256,427 (39.98%)
    Con 163,220 (25.45%)
    UKIP 124,727 (19.45%)
    LD 52,476 (8.18%)
    Green 27,711 (4.32%)
    BNP 2,803 (0.44%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +4.08%
    Con -7.06%
    UKIP +17.07%
    LD -11.54%
    Green +2.45%
    BNP -4.13%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 5.57%
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Ninoinoz said:

    AndyJS said:

    White people are by far the most accepting of mixed marriages. On this subject, it's ethnic minorities who are rather intolerant.

    And remind me, did the British in India integrate or remain separate?
    They integrated in the 18th Century and segregated in the 19th. I'm not particularly sure how it's relevant to 21st century Britain.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    AndyJS said:

    White people are by far the most accepting of mixed marriages. On this subject, it's ethnic minorities who are rather intolerant.

    It varies enormously by minority. Typically blacks and southeast Asians are very open to mixed marriage. East Asians are a bit less so, and South Asians are the least of all.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Socrates said:

    AndyJS said:

    White people are by far the most accepting of mixed marriages. On this subject, it's ethnic minorities who are rather intolerant.

    It varies enormously by minority. Typically blacks and southeast Asians are very open to mixed marriage. East Asians are a bit less so, and South Asians are the least of all.
    I think people from the Caribbean are most relaxed about it of all ethnic minorities, but they're still less accepting than white people. I've seen the statistics but can't find a link at the moment.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Andy's numbers show Con doing worse than average in Great Manchester and West Midlands Metropolitan area.

    I would have thought that is actually good news for Con - ie they are doing worse than average in two large areas where they have few seats.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Rodger’s Facebook page is full of selfies and photos of his rich but lonely life. There are photos of him, by himself, flying first class and attending a private Katy Perry concert, and with his parents, at the Hunger Games premiere in 2012; his father was an assistant director of the film. Friends are generally absent from the photos and make few comments; he likes many of his own photos, and is usually the only one to do so. He was obsessed with himself and with putting his opulent lifestyle on display, and Facebook was the perfect outlet for it."

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/05/24/the-disturbing-internet-footprint-of-santa-barbara-shooter-elliot-rodger/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Doncaster, popular votes:

    Lab 26,552 (38.00%)
    UKIP 22,046 (31.55%)
    Con 8,880 (12.71%)
    LD 2,519 (3.61%)
    Ind 1,981 (2.84%)
    Eng Dem 1,660 (2.38%)
    TUSC 1,556 (2.23%)
    Green 1,341 (1.92%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +2.11%
    UKIP +30.37%
    Con -7.49%
    LD -11.41%
    Ind -4.72%
    Eng Dem -12.16%
    TUSC +2.23%
    Green +0.69%
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The antis do not want successful negotiations whatever they are. The want OUT.

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: David Davis has told the Sunday Times that David Cameron must bring EU referendum forward to 2016 if he wants to win back Ukip voters

    Does he really believe that or is it just another 'do something' wail?

    Are voters really going to be persuaded by a vote in two years, rather than three? In any case, it's not Europe for most UKIP voters (and for those it is, there's probably little that can be done).

    On the other hand, promising a vote by 2017 does at least give the possibility of successful negotiations; knocking half the time off that makes it far harder and increases the risk that the other EU countries won't take it seriously.

    Davis is a prat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Colchester council, popular votes:

    Con 13,144 (33.57%)
    LD 8,988 (22.95%)
    Lab 6,334 (16.18%)
    UKIP 6,179 (15.78%)
    Green 3,385 (8.64%)
    Ind 1,117 (2.85%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Con -4.06%
    LD -16.91%
    Lab +3.15%
    UKIP +15.78%
    Green +3.20%
    Ind -1.04%

    Swing, LD to Con: 6.42%

    Tories need a 7.57% swing to win the Colchester constituency from the LDs (which has different boundaries to the council).
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Very one nation :)
    AndyJS said:

    The name of the Labour candidate in Shaw, Oldham?

    Hermione Andromeda Lostwithiel St John Spiggott.

    http://www.oldham.gov.uk/info/200038/elections/1364/election_results_may_2014

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Socrates said:

    AndyJS said:

    White people are by far the most accepting of mixed marriages. On this subject, it's ethnic minorities who are rather intolerant.

    It varies enormously by minority. Typically blacks and southeast Asians are very open to mixed marriage. East Asians are a bit less so, and South Asians are the least of all.
    That also fits my preferences ....

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Portsmouth, popular votes:

    Con 13,412 (28.20%)
    UKIP 10,866 (22.85%
    LD 10,024 (21.08%)
    Lab 9,289 (19.53%)
    Green 1,519 (3.19%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Con -8.61%
    UKIP +22.85%
    LD -17.38%
    Lab +0.14%
    Green +2.00%
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    The bottom has fallen out of the In-Play markets at Betfair. At the 100 pound + stake level the prices are:

    Most Votes
    UKIP 1.1
    Lab 3.4

    Most Seats
    UKIP 1.16
    Lab 3.05

    Tiny sums are available at slightly longer prices.

    I wonder if liquidity will improve when Mike Smithson wakes up? Or has he got a huge hangover after laying UKIP at tiny prices over the last two days, based upon "educated guess" PNS figures?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    Portsmouth, popular votes:

    Con 13,412 (28.20%)
    UKIP 10,866 (22.85%
    LD 10,024 (21.08%)
    Lab 9,289 (19.53%)
    Green 1,519 (3.19%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Con -8.61%
    UKIP +22.85%
    LD -17.38%
    Lab +0.14%
    Green +2.00%

    I'm surprised the LDs placed third. It's good that the voters responded to the LDs protecting Mr Hancock, but third is a surprise.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    New thread.
This discussion has been closed.