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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll on how Euro voters will vote next year
In another poll by Lord Ashcroft, 4,286 people who voted in the European Parliament elections in Great Britain were interviewed online on 22 and 23 May 2014, and there were quite a few questions asked (sadly no exit poll!)
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Come on Real!
Smoke me a Kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.
Labour's poll position is in steady and continued decline for 2 years now, and you act as if they're coasting to victory.
50% of UKIP voters are protest voters.
33% of LD voters are protest voters.
Not so much "the fox is in the henhouse", as "the fox is pawing at the wire fence wondering how to get in."
I still find it a little hard to believe that Ed is going to deliver but there is no question he is kicking downhill with the wind at his back. If Labour lose the next election they won't be lamenting 1992 anymore.
Libdems in hopeless seats next year may vote tactically, and others may vote tactically for LD.
You should not think the LD's unsophisticated in thee matters! S´cuse me while I kiss the sky.
It's not a matter of Lab being strong. They're not. And it's not a matter of me disliking Cameron or the Tories and wishing to see them fail. I don't. If the national polling holds up well for him, then maybe he will have a chance come May 2015, but it is simply the case that even if the Tories win the popular vote, unless it is by a lot then Lab will probably have the most seats, and I don't see the Tories getting a bigger win in 2015 than they managed in 2010.
DavidL's imagery captures it very well indeed - Ed M is kicking downhill with the wind at his back. That is why I have consistently thought Lab would win since June 2010, and this from someone who has never voted Labour. The Tories just have so much to do and so many things acting against them.
On less important matters I do not think many people actually intuitively believe the Ashcroft polls reflect what will happen next May. Labour will not poll higher than the Tories next year, and will not win a majority. This is as certain as England not winning the world cup.
Murphy's law is applying its relentless force upon the Lib Dems.
THAT praises are without reason lavished on the dead, and that the honours due only to excellence are paid to antiquity, is a complaint likely to be always continued by those, who, being able to add nothing to truth, hope for eminence from the heresies of paradox; or those, who, being forced by disappointment upon consolatory expedients, are willing to hope from posterity what the present age refuses, and flatter themselves that the regard which is yet denied by envy, will be at last bestowed by time.
Antiquity, like every other quality that attracts the notice of mankind, has undoubtedly votaries that reverence it, not from reason, but from prejudice. Some seem to admire indiscriminately whatever has been long preserved, without considering that time has sometimes co-operated with chance; all perhaps are more willing to honour past than present excellence; and the mind contemplates genius through the shades of age, as the eye surveys the sun through artificial opacity. The great contention of criticism is to find the faults of the moderns, and the beauties of the ancients. While an author is yet living we estimate his powers by his worst performance, and when he is dead, we rate them by his best.
- With more than 400 of 462 seats declared the two largest parties have 213 seats
In terms of first preference votes Sinn Féin is the largest party with fractionally over 24 per cent, marginally down on the last election. The DUP has just over 23 per cent, down more than 4 percentage points, but leaving its dominance within unionism largely untouched.
Despite having the largest share of the vote, however, Sinn Féin’s vote has not translated into a larger number of seats than the DUP.
While Sinn Féin’s seats total approached 100 mark the DUP had 121.
This is most likely due to the pattern of transfers in later counts.
The Ulster Unionists are performing quite well, with party leader Mike Nesbitt at the helm for his first election. They have 84 seats and around a 17 per cent share of the first preference vote. Mr Nesbitt is claiming the DUP vote has peaked while his party has posted gains after a series of difficult elections.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-dup-consolidate-their-positions-as-dominant-voices-in-council-politics-1.1808146
If I were the tories I would be very very worried this weekend
Also if I were the DUP I might be a bit concerned too as UKIP are starting to make inroads in NI.
This weekend. Next weekend. And all the way up to the General Election.
Francesco Guicciardini got their before Johnson. As he argued in his Ricordi:
Or not......
Amidst all the excitement of crossover, the average is still a modest Labour lead, and as any fule kno, that means Labour largest party, very close to a majority.
The reason for Labour rumblings and Tory mild contentment is that electoral history, insomuch as it can be applied here, and the improving economy both suggest Labour will not be enjoying leads of any sort 11 months from now.
The Lib Dem figure may perk up as their Euro-voters have the highest Don't Know response but even so, it's telling that they're gaining so little return support from the other parties.
If those shares became a reality, it'd be a brave call as to who'd win where (which is one reason to be thankful for the Ashcroft poll): with UKIP up 15 and LD down 17, but that not representing anything like a direct swing, there'd be all sorts of individual results that varied considerably from the national average. 2015 is building to be the least UNS election since the concept of swing was invented.
I am grateful to you for pointing out this potentially highly pertinent application.
As for cluelessness, you have delighted us in the past month by expressing the beliefs that "internals" = "subsamples" and that "Unionist" in the title of the Conservative Party refers to the union of England and Scotland. Perhaps you would explain to us this evening how we know that the earth is banana-shaped?
CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8
www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhI5CyvZd7U
In a move that will further unnerve the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats – all of which have suffered from the Ukip surge – senior party officials said the next move would be to identify specific, mainly marginal, seats, where it now has a strong base of councillors. It is imitating the tactics that established the Liberal Democrats as a strong parliamentary force in the 1990s.
The extent of Farage's ambitions came to light as Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg faced a serious backlash from party malcontents, including at least two parliamentary candidates and several prominent councillors, as activists gathered names on a petition demanding he be replaced immediately by a new leader.
Ukip sources said the first task after the Newark byelection on 5 June would be to ensure that Farage himself wins a Commons seat next May. Mainstream parties have publicly doubted Ukip's capacity to break into parliament, but Thursday's results have convinced the party that, with the right focus, it can deliver a Ukip caucus.
"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons?CMP=twt_fd
Labour will win the election with a workable majority, and will do so with the lowest ever national share of the vote. There will be wailing and gnashing from Tories about the iniquities of a FPTP system they worked so hard to maintain, and must stupid commentary from the paid commentariat and Hodges.
It doesn't really matter what the Tories national percentage is anymore - its concentrated in too few seats to give them a majority. Their support has eroded into the south and the countryside thanks to their scorched earth policies towards anyone who can't afford a BMW, and then UKIP came along to make the job even harder. A bigger national Tory % share wouldn't give them more seats because it's in the wrong places. Whereas Labour can win majorities with 35%, and it'll probably be less than that this time - because the votes are spread across more winnable seats.
What I hope is that this election will put an end to the democratic farce that is First Past the Post.
My pre-race piece on the Monaco Grand Prix, which is threatening to actually be interesting, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/monaco-pre-race.html
Betting on Monaco's hard because it's a processional circuit, but a tiny mistake can take a car out, and those behind it.
In the end I backed Alonso at 10 (Ladbrokes) to be the winner without Hamilton/Rosberg (each way). So, if the Silver Arrows are 1-2 Alonso can be 3rd or 4th and it's green.
It's a shame Rosberg didn't get a penalty, as I was poised to tip Red Bull to top score at 8.
I think they are getting a little bit a ahead of themselves.
Really? So you don't believe Stephen Fisher and others' forecasters who are projecting a significant Tory lead by May 2015? Not to mention recent movements in the polls, including this evening's showing that the Tories are indeed making progress towards an early crossover with Labour.
The one thing which convinces me that the Tories are set to do very considerably better than might currently appear likely is the very significant improvement in Labour's level of support, despite the economy continuing to deteriorate further during the final 12 months of the last Brown Government, prior to the May 2010 GE. I see no reason why this shouldn't happen again this time.
According to Survation 41% of UKIP's EU supporters voted for another party in the local elections. So they have a large pool of sometime UKIP supporters, to convert to full time UKIP supporters.
I just have this feeling there's no way Dave will remain PM if the Kippers poll 15%.
Dave himself he needs to get the Kippers down to 5% if he wants to remain PM.
Labour coming third could be interesting re possibly prompting them into a referendum?
If they got 5 seats and came to an arrangement with the DUPs 9 seats then that could well hold the balance of power post 2015.....
EXCL: Two Lib Dem PPCs say Clegg must go. Lib Dem MP John Pugh compares Lib Dem high command to generals at Somme
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
If I were a Lib Dem I suspect I'd want 12 months of hopefully good economic news, in the hope of getting a little polling boost from it.
They also need to replace Clegg with someone clearly better. Huhne's an ex-con, Cable's past it and Farron's Farron. Still, there's Norman Lamb. [There's also Danny Alexander, but if he replaced Clegg and the Scots vote Yes that wouldn't look very clever].
;-)
I'm going to be the only person at a NIN gig thinking about the Euros.
Perfect drug popped on during my walk to the shops today. Most enjoyable.
Mr. Briskin, the Lib Dems are like a stoned student. Most of the time they're mellow and relaxed, but every now and then they freak out and attack the leader with a kitchen knife.
If they wanted to toss Clegg overboard they should've done it before they lost 2/5 of their councillors.
There are arguments you can put forward for or against an inevitable outcome.
"The electoral maths make it a shoo-in for Labour"
"With a tiny lead and a year to go, the opposition have no chance at all"
The next election is wide open.
On your point about Tory rebellion, I think it is quietening,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27561917
Head like a Hole
Happiness in Slavery
The Hand that Feeds
Help me I am in Hell
March of the Pigs
Though there is actually no "problem" here at all, it is the natural result of a protest party having to be in power - particularly in a coalition with the hated Tories.
I actually feel that Clegg's reputation as laughing stock or pond scum is absurd and that he has shown some admirable qualities during a difficult period of party and national governance, I think he presents well (if in the standard style of politicians), but he has seemed like a political zombie for a while, on borrowed time despite his desperate and sometimes brave attempts to reverse the decline. But for the party he's just not an asset any more. If the party is willing to wait until 2015 to kick him out, that's they business, no guarantee they will do better with someone else in place at the GE, and maybe that's why there's no coup plans - his says as Leader are already numbered.
2. The problem the Lib Dems have now, as Haig and co had in 1916, is similar: if we don't do this, what do we do? It's easy to say 'replace Clegg' but with whom and to what end?
That said, The Guardian is an unlikely publication for UKIP insider gossip.
"John Pugh, you do realise we won the Battle of the Somme?"
It might not help at all, but it is unlikely to hurt much either.
Oh well.
Edit and the 2015 general election to the Battle of Ipsus (from a Lib Dem point of view)