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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll on how Euro voters will vote next year

In another poll by Lord Ashcroft, 4,286 people who voted in the European Parliament elections in Great Britain were interviewed online on 22 and 23 May 2014, and there were quite a few questions asked (sadly no exit poll!)

Read the full story here

MikeK

first?

TGOHF

Peak Kipper ?

Smarmeron

Just a red herring

kle4

When do the Tories give up? Not while the national polls are comparitively decent I suppose, but Labour are home and dry unless they implode under their own power, and nothing they do seems to provoke that. If the Tories were capable of overcoming the factors that stymie them, they'd have done it by now.

Swiss_Bob

Re Atletico scoring, had a couple of quid on them, now switched to Real and have them at about 9-1.

Come on Real!

Sunil_Prasannan

I voted UKIP in the Euro election on Thursday, but Tory in the locals.

Next

Smoke me a Kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.

Sunil_Prasannan

Next said:

Smoke me a Kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.

What a guy!

maaarsh

kle4 said:

When do the Tories give up? Not while the national polls are comparitively decent I suppose, but Labour are home and dry unless they implode under their own power, and nothing they do seems to provoke that. If the Tories were capable of overcoming the factors that stymie them, they'd have done it by now.

Just bizarre.

Labour's poll position is in steady and continued decline for 2 years now, and you act as if they're coasting to victory.

Stuart_Dickson

"The other finding that stood out is, which is probably alarming for the Liberal Democrats, that only 66% of the Lib Dem Euro voters are likely to vote Lib Dem at the General Election, for the Tory and Lab Euro Voters, their figures are in the 90s. If as expected the Lib Dems poll single figures in the Euros tomorrow, then this does not bode well for the Yellows in 2015."

S´cuse me while I kiss the sky.

Next

So...

50% of UKIP voters are protest voters.

33% of LD voters are protest voters.

Not so much "the fox is in the henhouse", as "the fox is pawing at the wire fence wondering how to get in."

DavidL

Hmmm...

I still find it a little hard to believe that Ed is going to deliver but there is no question he is kicking downhill with the wind at his back. If Labour lose the next election they won't be lamenting 1992 anymore.

Stuart_Dickson

kle4 said:

When do the Tories give up? Not while the national polls are comparitively decent I suppose, but Labour are home and dry unless they implode under their own power, and nothing they do seems to provoke that. If the Tories were capable of overcoming the factors that stymie them, they'd have done it by now.

The Tories don't have a clue. They are like fish out of water.

foxinsoxuk

Fptp elections are not PR!

Libdems in hopeless seats next year may vote tactically, and others may vote tactically for LD.

You should not think the LD's unsophisticated in thee matters!

Stuart_Dickson said:

"The other finding that stood out is, which is probably alarming for the Liberal Democrats, that only 66% of the Lib Dem Euro voters are likely to vote Lib Dem at the General Election, for the Tory and Lab Euro Voters, their figures are in the 90s. If as expected the Lib Dems poll single figures in the Euros tomorrow, then this does not bode well for the Yellows in 2015."

S´cuse me while I kiss the sky.

JBriskin

FFS - Lib dems being trolled by Ashcroft. Just what we need.

kle4

maaarsh said:

kle4 said:

When do the Tories give up? Not while the national polls are comparitively decent I suppose, but Labour are home and dry unless they implode under their own power, and nothing they do seems to provoke that. If the Tories were capable of overcoming the factors that stymie them, they'd have done it by now.

Just bizarre.

Labour's poll position is in steady and continued decline for 2 years now, and you act as if they're coasting to victory.

Because they can win so much more easily that the Tories on much less of the vote, the LDs are showing no sign of bouncing back at the moment and so any late movement will probably not be as significant as they hoped, with Lab as the biggest beneficiaries, despite making inroads to the Lab vote the rise of UKIP hurts the Tories more and shows no sign of slowing down, Lab still have Scotland and Wales, and the polls apparently show them doing better in the marginals than in the country as a whole, and if that is the case with the economy already picking up, I don't see that changing in a year.

It's not a matter of Lab being strong. They're not. And it's not a matter of me disliking Cameron or the Tories and wishing to see them fail. I don't. If the national polling holds up well for him, then maybe he will have a chance come May 2015, but it is simply the case that even if the Tories win the popular vote, unless it is by a lot then Lab will probably have the most seats, and I don't see the Tories getting a bigger win in 2015 than they managed in 2010.

DavidL's imagery captures it very well indeed - Ed M is kicking downhill with the wind at his back. That is why I have consistently thought Lab would win since June 2010, and this from someone who has never voted Labour. The Tories just have so much to do and so many things acting against them.

tyson

Obviously on more important matters, I am looking out of my window over the hills of Firenze onto the lights of Fort Belvedere and into the marriage of Kim and Kanye.

On less important matters I do not think many people actually intuitively believe the Ashcroft polls reflect what will happen next May. Labour will not poll higher than the Tories next year, and will not win a majority. This is as certain as England not winning the world cup.

Stuart_Dickson

foxinsoxuk said:

Fptp elections are not PR!

Libdems in hopeless seats next year may vote tactically, and others may vote tactically for LD.

You should not think the LD's unsophisticated in thee matters!

Stuart_Dickson said:

"The other finding that stood out is, which is probably alarming for the Liberal Democrats, that only 66% of the Lib Dem Euro voters are likely to vote Lib Dem at the General Election, for the Tory and Lab Euro Voters, their figures are in the 90s. If as expected the Lib Dems poll single figures in the Euros tomorrow, then this does not bode well for the Yellows in 2015."

S´cuse me while I kiss the sky.

Murphy's law is applying its relentless force upon the Lib Dems.

AveryLP

FPT

Life_ina_market_town said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Who'd've thunk that we'd look back with nostalgia upon the dire Broon.

Absence makes the hear grow fonder. It was something of a cliché in the medieval period that pernicious rulers, once dead, were admired when compared with their successors. Thus in his Historia Anglorum, Henry of Huntingdon claimed of the anarchy of Stephen's reign:

[I]n the troublesome times which succeeded from the atrocities of the Normans, whatever King Henry [I] had done, either despotically, or in the regular exercise of his royal authority, appeared most excellent in comparison.

Likewise, "Hugo Falcandus" states in the History of the Tyrants of Sicily that during the minority of William II of Sicily:

Many mourned the dead king William [I] during these days who had hated him as the most wicked tyrant when he was alive.

Plus ça change...


THAT praises are without reason lavished on the dead, and that the honours due only to excellence are paid to antiquity, is a complaint likely to be always continued by those, who, being able to add nothing to truth, hope for eminence from the heresies of paradox; or those, who, being forced by disappointment upon consolatory expedients, are willing to hope from posterity what the present age refuses, and flatter themselves that the regard which is yet denied by envy, will be at last bestowed by time.

Antiquity, like every other quality that attracts the notice of mankind, has undoubtedly votaries that reverence it, not from reason, but from prejudice. Some seem to admire indiscriminately whatever has been long preserved, without considering that time has sometimes co-operated with chance; all perhaps are more willing to honour past than present excellence; and the mind contemplates genius through the shades of age, as the eye surveys the sun through artificial opacity. The great contention of criticism is to find the faults of the moderns, and the beauties of the ancients. While an author is yet living we estimate his powers by his worst performance, and when he is dead, we rate them by his best.

Stuart_Dickson

SF, DUP consolidate their positions as dominant voices in council politics
- With more than 400 of 462 seats declared the two largest parties have 213 seats

In terms of first preference votes Sinn Féin is the largest party with fractionally over 24 per cent, marginally down on the last election. The DUP has just over 23 per cent, down more than 4 percentage points, but leaving its dominance within unionism largely untouched.
Despite having the largest share of the vote, however, Sinn Féin’s vote has not translated into a larger number of seats than the DUP.
While Sinn Féin’s seats total approached 100 mark the DUP had 121.
This is most likely due to the pattern of transfers in later counts.
The Ulster Unionists are performing quite well, with party leader Mike Nesbitt at the helm for his first election. They have 84 seats and around a 17 per cent share of the first preference vote. Mr Nesbitt is claiming the DUP vote has peaked while his party has posted gains after a series of difficult elections.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-dup-consolidate-their-positions-as-dominant-voices-in-council-politics-1.1808146

Life_ina_market_town

My maths is very poor, but surely somebody could devise simultaneous equations with five variables, representing the party vote shares in the Euro elections (eg. Con=a, Lab=b, Lib=c, UKIP=d, Other=e) which related to the first table on p. 2. So the first equation would be 0.48=0.64a+0.48b+0.60c+0.39d+0.38e. There are a sufficient number of questions in that table such at least five equations could be derived. Wouldn't that allow an estimate of how Ashcroft's data shows people voted?

Paul_Mid_Beds

Next said:

So...

50% of UKIP voters are protest voters.

33% of LD voters are protest voters.

Not so much "the fox is in the henhouse", as "the fox is pawing at the wire fence wondering how to get in."

I would wait until tomorrows results are out before gloating. If UKIP get 30% in the Euros then that implies they would get 15% in the general election which is an election changing number and 500% more votes than they got in 2010.

JBriskin

Did PB just take down ITV?? I prefer it when team guido pick on the Bbc

Paul_Mid_Beds

Stuart_Dickson said:

SF, DUP consolidate their positions as dominant voices in council politics
- With more than 400 of 462 seats declared the two largest parties have 213 seats

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-dup-consolidate-their-positions-as-dominant-voices-in-council-politics-1.1808146

That would be the DUP that started as a fringe one man band under Ian Paisley over the issue of national sovereignty, essentially a protest vote, eventually winning a westminster seat or two but then went onto replace the UUP after the UUP and lost the voters trust, especially the skilled working class and lower middle class.

If I were the tories I would be very very worried this weekend

Also if I were the DUP I might be a bit concerned too as UKIP are starting to make inroads in NI.

Next

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SF, DUP consolidate their positions as dominant voices in council politics
- With more than 400 of 462 seats declared the two largest parties have 213 seats

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-dup-consolidate-their-positions-as-dominant-voices-in-council-politics-1.1808146

That would be the DUP that started as a fringe one man band under Ian Paisley over the issue of national sovereignty, essentially a protest vote, eventually winning a westminster seat or two but then went onto replace the UUP after the UUP and lost the voters trust, especially the skilled working class and lower middle class.

If I were the tories I would be very very worried this weekend

Also if I were the DUP I might be a bit concerned too as UKIP are starting to make inroads in NI.

If UKIP are after the working class vote, then it's Labour that need to be "very very" worried.

This weekend. Next weekend. And all the way up to the General Election.

Life_ina_market_town

@AveryLP
Francesco Guicciardini got their before Johnson. As he argued in his Ricordi:

How misguided it is to quote the Romans at every turn! We'd need to have a city enjoying the same conditions as theirs and then govern it according to their example. It would be just as incongruous for someone whose conditions were incongruous as it would be to expect an ass to race like a horse.

CarlottaVance

Stuart_Dickson said:

kle4 said:

When do the Tories give up? Not while the national polls are comparitively decent I suppose, but Labour are home and dry unless they implode under their own power, and nothing they do seems to provoke that. If the Tories were capable of overcoming the factors that stymie them, they'd have done it by now.

The Tories don't have a clue. They are like fish out of water.

Pend. September 19.

Or not......

TheScreamingEagles

Life_ina_market_town said:

My maths is very poor, but surely somebody could devise simultaneous equations with five variables, representing the party vote shares in the Euro elections (eg. Con=a, Lab=b, Lib=c, UKIP=d, Other=e) which related to the first table on p. 2. So the first equation would be 0.48=0.64a+0.48b+0.60c+0.39d+0.38e. There are a sufficient number of questions in that table such at least five equations could be derived. Wouldn't that allow an estimate of how Ashcroft's data shows people voted?

I did think about asking young Mr Corporeal to do such a thing, but worried that posting such a thing might break the law, what with the rules of exit polls on the Euros.

Tissue_Price

At the risk of seeming dull, the locals and the Ashcroft poll merely seen to confirm the current polling.

Amidst all the excitement of crossover, the average is still a modest Labour lead, and as any fule kno, that means Labour largest party, very close to a majority.

The reason for Labour rumblings and Tory mild contentment is that electoral history, insomuch as it can be applied here, and the improving economy both suggest Labour will not be enjoying leads of any sort 11 months from now.

david_herdson

My back-of-an-envelope calculations, working on a Euro split of UKIP 29, Lab 26, Con 23, LD 8, is that this would result in GE shares of Lab 33, Con 33, UKIP 18, LD 6(!).

The Lib Dem figure may perk up as their Euro-voters have the highest Don't Know response but even so, it's telling that they're gaining so little return support from the other parties.

If those shares became a reality, it'd be a brave call as to who'd win where (which is one reason to be thankful for the Ashcroft poll): with UKIP up 15 and LD down 17, but that not representing anything like a direct swing, there'd be all sorts of individual results that varied considerably from the national average. 2015 is building to be the least UNS election since the concept of swing was invented.

peter_from_putney

Life_ina_market_town said:

My maths is very poor, but surely somebody could devise simultaneous equations with five variables, representing the party vote shares in the Euro elections (eg. Con=a, Lab=b, Lib=c, UKIP=d, Other=e) which related to the first table on p. 2. So the first equation would be 0.48=0.64a+0.48b+0.60c+0.39d+0.38e. There are a sufficient number of questions in that table such at least five equations could be derived. Wouldn't that allow an estimate of how Ashcroft's data shows people voted?

For several decades now I have wondered about the true purpose of simultaneous equations, that old mainstay of "O" level maths.
I am grateful to you for pointing out this potentially highly pertinent application.

AndyJS

BBC News leading with shooting in Brussels. Sky News leading with shooting in California.

Tissue_Price

Life_ina_market_town said:

My maths is very poor, but surely somebody could devise simultaneous equations with five variables, representing the party vote shares in the Euro elections (eg. Con=a, Lab=b, Lib=c, UKIP=d, Other=e) which related to the first table on p. 2. So the first equation would be 0.48=0.64a+0.48b+0.60c+0.39d+0.38e. There are a sufficient number of questions in that table such at least five equations could be derived. Wouldn't that allow an estimate of how Ashcroft's data shows people voted?

Someone's done that in the comments on ukpollingreport. As I'm on a mobile I can't easily link to it (can someone oblige?) but they were grim for the Lib Dems.

Ishmael_X

Stuart_Dickson said:

kle4 said:

When do the Tories give up? Not while the national polls are comparitively decent I suppose, but Labour are home and dry unless they implode under their own power, and nothing they do seems to provoke that. If the Tories were capable of overcoming the factors that stymie them, they'd have done it by now.

The Tories don't have a clue. They are like fish out of water.

I think most tories are expecting NOM; you need to distinguish between hoping and thinking.

As for cluelessness, you have delighted us in the past month by expressing the beliefs that "internals" = "subsamples" and that "Unionist" in the title of the Conservative Party refers to the union of England and Scotland. Perhaps you would explain to us this evening how we know that the earth is banana-shaped?

Neil

kle4 said:

When do the Tories give up?

They've recently been in the lead in national polls with more than a year to go before the GE. Sure the electoral system is stacked against them but it's madness to suggest they should be thinking of giving up.

AndyJS

LD candidate for Winchester, Jackie Porter, calls for Clegg to stand down.

Neil

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SF, DUP consolidate their positions as dominant voices in council politics
- With more than 400 of 462 seats declared the two largest parties have 213 seats

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-dup-consolidate-their-positions-as-dominant-voices-in-council-politics-1.1808146

That would be the DUP that started as a fringe one man band under Ian Paisley over the issue of national sovereignty, essentially a protest vote, eventually winning a westminster seat or two but then went onto replace the UUP after the UUP and lost the voters trust, especially the skilled working class and lower middle class.

If I were the tories I would be very very worried this weekend

But the DUP ended up delivering exactly what they castigated the UUP for. So perhaps the most worried of all should be UKIP voters.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

kle4 said:

When do the Tories give up?

They've recently been in the lead in national polls with more than a year to go before the GE. Sure the electoral system is stacked against them but it's madness to suggest they should be thinking of giving up.

Thanks for the Tower Hamlets tip.

Tissue_Price

Found it: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842/comment-page-2#comment-908455

CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

Found it: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842/comment-page-2#comment-908455

CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8

Cheers.

AndyJS

Chilling video by California shooter:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhI5CyvZd7U

TheScreamingEagles

Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election, using his party's success in Thursday's council elections as the launch pad for an all-out assault on the House of Commons, party officials have revealed.

In a move that will further unnerve the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats – all of which have suffered from the Ukip surge – senior party officials said the next move would be to identify specific, mainly marginal, seats, where it now has a strong base of councillors. It is imitating the tactics that established the Liberal Democrats as a strong parliamentary force in the 1990s.

The extent of Farage's ambitions came to light as Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg faced a serious backlash from party malcontents, including at least two parliamentary candidates and several prominent councillors, as activists gathered names on a petition demanding he be replaced immediately by a new leader.

Ukip sources said the first task after the Newark byelection on 5 June would be to ensure that Farage himself wins a Commons seat next May. Mainstream parties have publicly doubted Ukip's capacity to break into parliament, but Thursday's results have convinced the party that, with the right focus, it can deliver a Ukip caucus.

"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons?CMP=twt_fd

foxinsoxuk

I do hope so (apart from the LD) as my trifactor will pay off nicely.

Tissue_Price said:

Found it: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842/comment-page-2#comment-908455

CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8

RochdalePioneers

I've said it before and I'll say it again - the mistake being repeated is believing that the national share of the vote translates in the way it used to do into seats won. It doesn't thanks to regionalist support amongst all of the old parties and the rise and rise of UKIP.

Labour will win the election with a workable majority, and will do so with the lowest ever national share of the vote. There will be wailing and gnashing from Tories about the iniquities of a FPTP system they worked so hard to maintain, and must stupid commentary from the paid commentariat and Hodges.

It doesn't really matter what the Tories national percentage is anymore - its concentrated in too few seats to give them a majority. Their support has eroded into the south and the countryside thanks to their scorched earth policies towards anyone who can't afford a BMW, and then UKIP came along to make the job even harder. A bigger national Tory % share wouldn't give them more seats because it's in the wrong places. Whereas Labour can win majorities with 35%, and it'll probably be less than that this time - because the votes are spread across more winnable seats.

What I hope is that this election will put an end to the democratic farce that is First Past the Post.

TheScreamingEagles

My ego is fully bloomed. Today on twitter, Tom Watson started following me and Lord Ashcroft retweeted one my of tweets

foxinsoxuk

The other factor in the LD success of the nineties was through tactical voting, almost to the point of tacit electoral pacts, with New Labour. I cannot see that happening for the kippers.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election, using his party's success in Thursday's council elections as the launch pad for an all-out assault on the House of Commons, party officials have revealed.

In a move that will further unnerve the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats – all of which have suffered from the Ukip surge – senior party officials said the next move would be to identify specific, mainly marginal, seats, where it now has a strong base of councillors. It is imitating the tactics that established the Liberal Democrats as a strong parliamentary force in the 1990s.

The extent of Farage's ambitions came to light as Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg faced a serious backlash from party malcontents, including at least two parliamentary candidates and several prominent councillors, as activists gathered names on a petition demanding he be replaced immediately by a new leader.

Ukip sources said the first task after the Newark byelection on 5 June would be to ensure that Farage himself wins a Commons seat next May. Mainstream parties have publicly doubted Ukip's capacity to break into parliament, but Thursday's results have convinced the party that, with the right focus, it can deliver a Ukip caucus.

"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons?CMP=twt_fd

anotherDave

Tissue_Price said:

Found it: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842/comment-page-2#comment-908455

CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8

Excellent news!

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

My pre-race piece on the Monaco Grand Prix, which is threatening to actually be interesting, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/monaco-pre-race.html

Betting on Monaco's hard because it's a processional circuit, but a tiny mistake can take a car out, and those behind it.

In the end I backed Alonso at 10 (Ladbrokes) to be the winner without Hamilton/Rosberg (each way). So, if the Silver Arrows are 1-2 Alonso can be 3rd or 4th and it's green.

It's a shame Rosberg didn't get a penalty, as I was poised to tip Red Bull to top score at 8.

Next

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election, using his party's success in Thursday's council elections as the launch pad for an all-out assault on the House of Commons, party officials have revealed.

In a move that will further unnerve the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats – all of which have suffered from the Ukip surge – senior party officials said the next move would be to identify specific, mainly marginal, seats, where it now has a strong base of councillors. It is imitating the tactics that established the Liberal Democrats as a strong parliamentary force in the 1990s.

The extent of Farage's ambitions came to light as Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg faced a serious backlash from party malcontents, including at least two parliamentary candidates and several prominent councillors, as activists gathered names on a petition demanding he be replaced immediately by a new leader.

Ukip sources said the first task after the Newark byelection on 5 June would be to ensure that Farage himself wins a Commons seat next May. Mainstream parties have publicly doubted Ukip's capacity to break into parliament, but Thursday's results have convinced the party that, with the right focus, it can deliver a Ukip caucus.

"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons?CMP=twt_fd

"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.

I think they are getting a little bit a ahead of themselves.

TheScreamingEagles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Found it: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842/comment-page-2#comment-908455

CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8

Cheers.

Christ, Labour in third place.

peter_from_putney

OGH : " I don’t think that’s enough for Dave to remain in Downing Street post May 2015."

Really? So you don't believe Stephen Fisher and others' forecasters who are projecting a significant Tory lead by May 2015? Not to mention recent movements in the polls, including this evening's showing that the Tories are indeed making progress towards an early crossover with Labour.

The one thing which convinces me that the Tories are set to do very considerably better than might currently appear likely is the very significant improvement in Labour's level of support, despite the economy continuing to deteriorate further during the final 12 months of the last Brown Government, prior to the May 2010 GE. I see no reason why this shouldn't happen again this time.

TheScreamingEagles

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election, using his party's success in Thursday's council elections as the launch pad for an all-out assault on the House of Commons, party officials have revealed.

In a move that will further unnerve the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats – all of which have suffered from the Ukip surge – senior party officials said the next move would be to identify specific, mainly marginal, seats, where it now has a strong base of councillors. It is imitating the tactics that established the Liberal Democrats as a strong parliamentary force in the 1990s.

The extent of Farage's ambitions came to light as Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg faced a serious backlash from party malcontents, including at least two parliamentary candidates and several prominent councillors, as activists gathered names on a petition demanding he be replaced immediately by a new leader.

Ukip sources said the first task after the Newark byelection on 5 June would be to ensure that Farage himself wins a Commons seat next May. Mainstream parties have publicly doubted Ukip's capacity to break into parliament, but Thursday's results have convinced the party that, with the right focus, it can deliver a Ukip caucus.

"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons?CMP=twt_fd

"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.

I think they are getting a little bit a ahead of themselves.

All I've got in my head is the film and tv series Highlander.

anotherDave

foxinsoxuk said:

The other factor in the LD success of the nineties was through tactical voting, almost to the point of tacit electoral pacts, with New Labour. I cannot see that happening for the kippers.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election, using his party's success in Thursday's council elections as the launch pad for an all-out assault on the House of Commons, party officials have revealed.

In a move that will further unnerve the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats – all of which have suffered from the Ukip surge – senior party officials said the next move would be to identify specific, mainly marginal, seats, where it now has a strong base of councillors. It is imitating the tactics that established the Liberal Democrats as a strong parliamentary force in the 1990s.

The extent of Farage's ambitions came to light as Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg faced a serious backlash from party malcontents, including at least two parliamentary candidates and several prominent councillors, as activists gathered names on a petition demanding he be replaced immediately by a new leader.

Ukip sources said the first task after the Newark byelection on 5 June would be to ensure that Farage himself wins a Commons seat next May. Mainstream parties have publicly doubted Ukip's capacity to break into parliament, but Thursday's results have convinced the party that, with the right focus, it can deliver a Ukip caucus.

"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons?CMP=twt_fd

You must have noticed that UKIP has attracted 'tactical voters' for the EU Parliament elections.

According to Survation 41% of UKIP's EU supporters voted for another party in the local elections. So they have a large pool of sometime UKIP supporters, to convert to full time UKIP supporters.

TheScreamingEagles

peter_from_putney said:

OGH : " I don’t think that’s enough for Dave to remain in Downing Street post May 2015."

Really? So you don't believe Stephen Fisher and others' forecasters who are projecting a significant Tory lead by May 2015? Not to mention recent movements in the polls, including this evening's showing that the Tories are indeed making progress towards an early crossover with Labour.

The one thing which convinces me that the Tories are set to do very considerably better than might currently appear likely is the very significant improvement in Labour's level of support, despite the economy continuing to deteriorate further during the final 12 months of the last Brown Government, prior to the May 2010 GE. I see no reason why this shouldn't happen again this time.

Wasn't Mike that wrote that, was me.

I just have this feeling there's no way Dave will remain PM if the Kippers poll 15%.

Dave himself he needs to get the Kippers down to 5% if he wants to remain PM.

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Found it: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842/comment-page-2#comment-908455

CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8

Cheers.

Christ, Labour in third place.

Well it's only a poll, so subject to usual qualifications. But no doubt there's a few prices that look big off the back of it.

Labour coming third could be interesting re possibly prompting them into a referendum?

kle4

peter_from_putney said:

OGH : " I don’t think that’s enough for Dave to remain in Downing Street post May 2015."

Really? So you don't believe Stephen Fisher and others' forecasters who are projecting a significant Tory lead by May 2015? Not to mention recent movements in the polls, including this evening's showing that the Tories are indeed making progress towards an early crossover with Labour.

The one thing which convinces me that the Tories are set to do very considerably better than might currently appear likely is the very significant improvement in Labour's level of support, despite the economy continuing to deteriorate further during the final 12 months of the last Brown Government, prior to the May 2010 GE. I see no reason why this shouldn't happen again this time.

Because, irrational though I believe it to be, far more people automatically fear the Tories gaining power than Labour? That is, as it became clearer than the Tories really might win, more people were willing to return to the Labour fold to stop it, albeit not enough, whereas while some fear Labour and others do hold them more responsible for getting is into all this economic mess, their brand is stronger, so fear of it will not drive as many people back to the Tories.

TheScreamingEagles

Christ, it is like the Alamo out there in Lisbon.

Paul_Mid_Beds

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election, using his party's success in Thursday's council elections as the launch pad for an all-out assault on the House of Commons, party officials have revealed.

In a move that will further unnerve the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats – all of which have suffered from the Ukip surge – senior party officials said the next move would be to identify specific, mainly marginal, seats, where it now has a strong base of councillors. It is imitating the tactics that established the Liberal Democrats as a strong parliamentary force in the 1990s.

The extent of Farage's ambitions came to light as Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg faced a serious backlash from party malcontents, including at least two parliamentary candidates and several prominent councillors, as activists gathered names on a petition demanding he be replaced immediately by a new leader.

Ukip sources said the first task after the Newark byelection on 5 June would be to ensure that Farage himself wins a Commons seat next May. Mainstream parties have publicly doubted Ukip's capacity to break into parliament, but Thursday's results have convinced the party that, with the right focus, it can deliver a Ukip caucus.

"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-hitlist-20-seats-commons?CMP=twt_fd

"We don't want Nigel to be the only one," said the source.

I think they are getting a little bit a ahead of themselves.

One of the seats they are targeting is Nick Palmers old seat in Broxtowe.

If they got 5 seats and came to an arrangement with the DUPs 9 seats then that could well hold the balance of power post 2015.....

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Found it: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842/comment-page-2#comment-908455

CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8

Cheers.

Christ, Labour in third place.

Well it's only a poll, so subject to usual qualifications. But no doubt there's a few prices that look big off the back of it.

Labour coming third could be interesting re possibly prompting them into a referendum?

Not even if they finish third, if they are only a gnat's fart ahead of the Tories, and far behind UKIP, then they may offer one.

TheScreamingEagles

Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 6m

EXCL: Two Lib Dem PPCs say Clegg must go. Lib Dem MP John Pugh compares Lib Dem high command to generals at Somme

Sunil_Prasannan

RochdalePioneers said:

What I hope is that this election will put an end to the democratic farce that is First Past the Post.

In India, the BJP won 282 out of 543 seats on just 31% of the national vote.

kle4

Neil said:

kle4 said:

When do the Tories give up?

They've recently been in the lead in national polls with more than a year to go before the GE. Sure the electoral system is stacked against them but it's madness to suggest they should be thinking of giving up.

I don't think they should give up - although I think a Labour win is very very likely, if the Tories can hold up even with this marginals mega poll they can hope that they can turn it around. I do however wonder how soon it will be before many of them do give up, given how indisciplined and rebellious they have been for much of this parliament and where I at least see them headed unless they are both lucky and skilful.

Cookie

Hello all - I'm sure this information has been on here somewhere in the last few days, but I've had a quick hunt and can't find it: has anyone done any analysis to show the seats (or districts) in which UKIP topped the poll? I've seen borough of Dudley and possibly Great Yarmouth: any others?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, what's happening in Lisbon?

AndyJS

In Liverpool, UKIP beat the Tories in every ward where they were both standing apart from one, Central, where the Tories were 2 votes ahead.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, what's happening in Lisbon?

The Champions League Final.

maaarsh

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Found it: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842/comment-page-2#comment-908455

CON 23.8
LAB 23.3
LIB 5.8
UKIP 29.3
OTH 17.8

Cheers.

Christ, Labour in third place.

Well it's only a poll, so subject to usual qualifications. But no doubt there's a few prices that look big off the back of it.

Labour coming third could be interesting re possibly prompting them into a referendum?

Not even if they finish third, if they are only a gnat's fart ahead of the Tories, and far behind UKIP, then they may offer one.

Is a gnat's fart more or less than a midgee's dick?

AndyJS

Cookie said:

Hello all - I'm sure this information has been on here somewhere in the last few days, but I've had a quick hunt and can't find it: has anyone done any analysis to show the seats (or districts) in which UKIP topped the poll? I've seen borough of Dudley and possibly Great Yarmouth: any others?

This might help:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=0

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 6m

EXCL: Two Lib Dem PPCs say Clegg must go. Lib Dem MP John Pugh compares Lib Dem high command to generals at Somme

Dam about to burst? I've never heard one of the local lib dems in my area say a good word about Clegg, and this is a pretty reasonable area of orange among a sea of blue shires, so do wonder how well he is viewed even among the remaining LD base. I don't think he polls well on those Lib Dem Voice surveys.

maaarsh

BOOM

maaarsh

Take that you ****ing ****ing cheat ******* Simeone.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, only reason to get rid of Clegg is for a serious change, which likely means the end of the Coalition and possibly even a vote for the General Election being brought forward.

If I were a Lib Dem I suspect I'd want 12 months of hopefully good economic news, in the hope of getting a little polling boost from it.

They also need to replace Clegg with someone clearly better. Huhne's an ex-con, Cable's past it and Farron's Farron. Still, there's Norman Lamb. [There's also Danny Alexander, but if he replaced Clegg and the Scots vote Yes that wouldn't look very clever].

Cookie

Thanks AndyJS - that's exactly what I was looking for! Great work.

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election

Perhaps showing a less than perfect understanding of the principle of targeting?

Charles

Ishmael_X said:

Perhaps you would explain to us this evening how we know that the earth is banana-shaped?

Well, if it wasn't equally weighted at both ends, it wouldn't be able to remain balanced on the back of a turtle. Stands to reason that it is banana shaped.

;-)

TheScreamingEagles

Tomorrow evening is a terrible time to hold a concert.

I'm going to be the only person at a NIN gig thinking about the Euros.

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, only reason to get rid of Clegg is for a serious change, which likely means the end of the Coalition and possibly even a vote for the General Election being brought forward.

If I were a Lib Dem I suspect I'd want 12 months of hopefully good economic news, in the hope of getting a little polling boost from it.

They also need to replace Clegg with someone clearly better. Huhne's an ex-con, Cable's past it and Farron's Farron. Still, there's Norman Lamb. [There's also Danny Alexander, but if he replaced Clegg and the Scots vote Yes that wouldn't look very clever].

I agree with your analysis for the most part, but I was just thinking about if the remarkably steady LD base finally cracked in panic. I used to think Clegg would 'step down' in 2014 at some point, so a new leader would just have a short stretch of actual Coalition to get through, and have the past 6 months or so figured that, no, they were going to hang on until the GE, but Clegg doesn't seem popular even with the remaining base of the party and eveyone has a limit of how much bad polling and seats lost they can handle without saying something, and once it really kicks off these things can snowball.

JBriskin

Morris - It's got to be Cable at this stage.

JBriskin

I'm pro-Clegg though - I can't see a coup

maaarsh

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tomorrow evening is a terrible time to hold a concert.

I'm going to be the only person at a NIN gig thinking about the Euros.

I recently upgraded my phone and for the first time can put my entire music collection on there, which has reminded me of a whole word of sounds i had forgotten.

Perfect drug popped on during my walk to the shops today. Most enjoyable.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, perhaps. Still need to see who the EU Commissioner will be.

Mr. Briskin, the Lib Dems are like a stoned student. Most of the time they're mellow and relaxed, but every now and then they freak out and attack the leader with a kitchen knife.

If they wanted to toss Clegg overboard they should've done it before they lost 2/5 of their councillors.

Fat_Steve

kle4 said:

Neil said:

kle4 said:

When do the Tories give up?

They've recently been in the lead in national polls with more than a year to go before the GE. Sure the electoral system is stacked against them but it's madness to suggest they should be thinking of giving up.

I don't think they should give up - although I think a Labour win is very very likely, if the Tories can hold up even with this marginals mega poll they can hope that they can turn it around. I do however wonder how soon it will be before many of them do give up, given how indisciplined and rebellious they have been for much of this parliament and where I at least see them headed unless they are both lucky and skilful.

The marginals mega-poll is interesting and valuable - but what it actually shows is "polling in the marginals has shown the same trends as elsewhere".
There are arguments you can put forward for or against an inevitable outcome.

"The electoral maths make it a shoo-in for Labour"

"With a tiny lead and a year to go, the opposition have no chance at all"

The next election is wide open.

On your point about Tory rebellion, I think it is quietening,

Morris_Dancer

BBC piece on the yellows contemplating regicide:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27561917

RochdalePioneers

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tomorrow evening is a terrible time to hold a concert.

I'm going to be the only person at a NIN gig thinking about the Euros.

Is it dedicated to Nick Clegg?
Head like a Hole
Happiness in Slavery
The Hand that Feeds
Help me I am in Hell
March of the Pigs

TheScreamingEagles

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tomorrow evening is a terrible time to hold a concert.

I'm going to be the only person at a NIN gig thinking about the Euros.

Is it dedicated to Nick Clegg?
Head like a Hole
Happiness in Slavery
The Hand that Feeds
Help me I am in Hell
March of the Pigs

I was more thinking "Hurt" for the Lib Dems and for Clegg, being popular, Is Something I Can Never Have

Next

kle4 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, only reason to get rid of Clegg is for a serious change, which likely means the end of the Coalition and possibly even a vote for the General Election being brought forward.

If I were a Lib Dem I suspect I'd want 12 months of hopefully good economic news, in the hope of getting a little polling boost from it.

They also need to replace Clegg with someone clearly better. Huhne's an ex-con, Cable's past it and Farron's Farron. Still, there's Norman Lamb. [There's also Danny Alexander, but if he replaced Clegg and the Scots vote Yes that wouldn't look very clever].

I agree with your analysis for the most part, but I was just thinking about if the remarkably steady LD base finally cracked in panic. I used to think Clegg would 'step down' in 2014 at some point, so a new leader would just have a short stretch of actual Coalition to get through, and have the past 6 months or so figured that, no, they were going to hang on until the GE, but Clegg doesn't seem popular even with the remaining base of the party and eveyone has a limit of how much bad polling and seats lost they can handle without saying something, and once it really kicks off these things can snowball.

How will replacing Clegg help, when it is being in the government that is the problem?

Though there is actually no "problem" here at all, it is the natural result of a protest party having to be in power - particularly in a coalition with the hated Tories.

felix

Mildly amusing the way all the Labour people disappear when the latest poll gives them just a 1% lead.

kle4

JBriskin said:

I'm pro-Clegg though - I can't see a coup

Well, they'd hardly let a pro-Clegger in on their plans for a coup would they? Just kidding.

I actually feel that Clegg's reputation as laughing stock or pond scum is absurd and that he has shown some admirable qualities during a difficult period of party and national governance, I think he presents well (if in the standard style of politicians), but he has seemed like a political zombie for a while, on borrowed time despite his desperate and sometimes brave attempts to reverse the decline. But for the party he's just not an asset any more. If the party is willing to wait until 2015 to kick him out, that's they business, no guarantee they will do better with someone else in place at the GE, and maybe that's why there's no coup plans - his says as Leader are already numbered.

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 6m

EXCL: Two Lib Dem PPCs say Clegg must go. Lib Dem MP John Pugh compares Lib Dem high command to generals at Somme

1. Britain did actually win the war, so the generals were doing something right.
2. The problem the Lib Dems have now, as Haig and co had in 1916, is similar: if we don't do this, what do we do? It's easy to say 'replace Clegg' but with whom and to what end?

anotherDave

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election

Perhaps showing a less than perfect understanding of the principle of targeting?

If they 'won' 20 Westmister seats, then why not?

That said, The Guardian is an unlikely publication for UKIP insider gossip.

Charles

kle4 said:

Because, irrational though I believe it to be, far more people automatically fear the Tories gaining power than Labour? That is, as it became clearer than the Tories really might win, more people were willing to return to the Labour fold to stop it, albeit not enough, whereas while some fear Labour and others do hold them more responsible for getting is into all this economic mess, their brand is stronger, so fear of it will not drive as many people back to the Tories.

But doesn't that explain Labour's relatively strong performance in 2010? Certainly there were some pretty aggressive PPBs along those lines. Surely, after 5 years of non-baby eating this will be less pronounced than last time?

TheScreamingEagles

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 6m

EXCL: Two Lib Dem PPCs say Clegg must go. Lib Dem MP John Pugh compares Lib Dem high command to generals at Somme

1. Britain did actually win the war, so the generals were doing something right.
2. The problem the Lib Dems have now, as Haig and co had in 1916, is similar: if we don't do this, what do we do? It's easy to say 'replace Clegg' but with whom and to what end?

I'm drafting a possible early morning thread, so far all I've written is

"John Pugh, you do realise we won the Battle of the Somme?"

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel Farage's Ukip is to target at least 20 parliamentary seats at the next general election

Perhaps showing a less than perfect understanding of the principle of targeting?

Don't worry, in all those 20 seats, the candidates will fly over the constituency on election day, and that will win them the seats.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Next, I partially agree. The Lib Dems largely have themselves to blame. After getting an abstention on tuition fees in the Coalition Agreement they managed to engineer a three-way party split. They also spent much of the time criticising their evil coalition partners, instead of trying to be positive and gain credit for any good things that happened.

kle4

Next said:

kle4 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, only reason to get rid of Clegg is for a serious change, which likely means the end of the Coalition and possibly even a vote for the General Election being brought forward.

If I were a Lib Dem I suspect I'd want 12 months of hopefully good economic news, in the hope of getting a little polling boost from it.

They also need to replace Clegg with someone clearly better. Huhne's an ex-con, Cable's past it and Farron's Farron. Still, there's Norman Lamb. [There's also Danny Alexander, but if he replaced Clegg and the Scots vote Yes that wouldn't look very clever].

I agree with your analysis for the most part, but I was just thinking about if the remarkably steady LD base finally cracked in panic. I used to think Clegg would 'step down' in 2014 at some point, so a new leader would just have a short stretch of actual Coalition to get through, and have the past 6 months or so figured that, no, they were going to hang on until the GE, but Clegg doesn't seem popular even with the remaining base of the party and eveyone has a limit of how much bad polling and seats lost they can handle without saying something, and once it really kicks off these things can snowball.

How will replacing Clegg help, when it is being in the government that is the problem?

Though there is actually no "problem" here at all, it is the natural result of a protest party having to be in power - particularly in a coalition with the hated Tories.

Being in government is the problem, that is true, so there is certainly no guarantee replacing the hated Clegg would have any positive effect. But to the desperate, anything is worth trying. Clegg in particular is a focus of much irrational mockery and hate, he could walk on water and many in certain areas would not vote for a party of which he was leader. It is possible, just possible, that a new leader, though tarnished with the brush of being in government (unless it's Farron, although it hardly matters if he personally has been a minister or not, the party has been in power), might be the slight difference necessary for some Lab voter in a Con-LD marginal to justify to themselves voting tactically for the LDs again.

It might not help at all, but it is unlikely to hurt much either.

Neil

felix said:

Mildly amusing the way all the Labour people disappear when the latest poll gives them just a 1% lead.

It is Saturday night. Maybe they have better things to do?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, if he had referred to Cannae you could've had a post referencing Hannibal, Hasdrubal, Scipio Africanus, Quintus Fabius Maximus, Marcellus, Nero and Zama.

Oh well.

RochdalePioneers

felix said:

Mildly amusing the way all the Labour people disappear when the latest poll gives them just a 1% lead.

I'm here - read what I said earlier about how silly national % share projections are when all three old parties are regionalised and UKIP aren't modelled. 1% lead nationally, 12% lead in seats we need to win = Tories poling up additional votes in seats they either can't win or already won.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, if he had referred to Cannae you could've had a post referencing Hannibal, Hasdrubal, Scipio Africanus, Quintus Fabius Maximus, Marcellus, Nero and Zama.

Oh well.

I have a piece in the pipeline comparing Vince Cable to Antigonus I Monophthalmus.

Edit and the 2015 general election to the Battle of Ipsus (from a Lib Dem point of view)

david_herdson

JBriskin said:

Morris - It's got to be Cable at this stage.

The guy that introduced and delivered the tuition fee increase? He's as much a continuity candidate as Danny Alexander.