politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium finds a net 13% drop in two weeks in government’s “Cor

Andy_JS said:

In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

The rules are different in Wales you know?

@NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

welshowl said:

Andy_JS said:

In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

The rules are different in Wales you know?

Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?

Andy_JS said:

welshowl said:

Andy_JS said:

In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

The rules are different in Wales you know?

Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?

Nope. Optional.

NerysHughes said:

Anecdote report on the Governments food offer. Restaurants and pubs round here are packed

Same along the Welsh coast this evening. Difficult to find anywhere that isn't already full.

PeterC said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Toms said:

I still cannot sign into the ordinary site. I use Chrome with Windows 10 on a very hunky tower PC.
Just saying.

Neither can I

And I use chrome on a brand new Samsung S5Etablet

Have you tried Firefox with Windows 10? It works fine for me.

Thanks I am OK on my windows laptop, just not my new samsung tablet, nor the old one

welshowl said:

Andy_JS said:

In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

The rules are different in Wales you know?

Only required on public transport and in hospitals here in Wales

Foxy said:

contrarian said:

Gallowgate said:

NerysHughes said:

rcs1000 said:

NerysHughes said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

6
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.

But that's always been the case.

The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.

I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

A prediction to remember.

Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?

The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.

But if you want to blame masks, go for it.

Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?

Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?

Who cares? They are only masks. Get a grip.

Its funny. In March people were saying 'look its only one month lockdown at home so the NHS doesn;t get overwhelmed.

Why are you making such a fuss?

Really? I remember it as being announced that it would be eight or more weeks.

Wait, if masks have to be worn all the time while outside in Spain, surely it'll be easy to tell who's come back from Spain and not quarantined just from the tan-lines?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Andy_JS said:

welshowl said:

Andy_JS said:

In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

The rules are different in Wales you know?

Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?

No

What about in pubs in Wales?

Ave_it said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Andy_JS said:

welshowl said:

Andy_JS said:

In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

The rules are different in Wales you know?

Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?

No

What about in pubs in Wales?

Not as far as I am aware

ukpaul said:

rottenborough said:

Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290390524050972674/photo/1

So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.

That has more the feel of fantaloons of The Times in a backside-covering strategy.

NerysHughes said:

rcs1000 said:

NerysHughes said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

6
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.

But that's always been the case.

The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.

I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

A prediction to remember.

Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?

The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.

But if you want to blame masks, go for it.

Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?

Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?

How many times do you need to be told by people living in Spain that the increases have primarily come about in non-mask wearing situations such as night clubs? Do you seriously not listen or is that you just prefer to keep spreading misinformation to further your agenda?

MattW said:

ukpaul said:

rottenborough said:

Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290390524050972674/photo/1

So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.

That has more the feel of fantaloons of The Times in a backside-covering strategy.

Okay, I'm lost. What on earth is a fantaloon?!?

MattW said:

Rishi-in-a-Dishy

I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1290393330786893826

Alcohol is excluded from the deal

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

rcs1000 said:

NerysHughes said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

6
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.

But that's always been the case.

The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.

I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

A prediction to remember.

Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?

The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.

But if you want to blame masks, go for it.

Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?

Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?

The main infection vector in Spain was bars and nightclubs among young people where there aren't any rules about mask wearing. Your crusade against masks is very odd.

Why would people get CV19 from nightclubs and bars, when they could get it outside from mask wearing?

Why would people get CV19 outside from mask wearing?

( I may have missed an ironic conversation)

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MattW said:

Rishi-in-a-Dishy

I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1290393330786893826

Alcohol is excluded from the deal

You can still reinvest your food saving on better plonk, which appears to be the OP’s intention.

Good strategy!

tlg86 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.

But that's always been the case.

The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.

I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

A prediction to remember.

Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.

I don't recall any media reports of such people being infected though.

Now I'm sure some will have been but they should already be showing in the numbers.

In reality the government isn't that bothered about those coming back now - though I think they should quarantine for the safety of people they know - but they are bothered about the potential for it to get really bad in Spain over the next month or so.

Whether the government should have got everyone's hopes up is another question. It was probably always likely to end up like this, but the government was under pressure to try to get things back to normal.

Encouraging foreign holidays was imbecilic.

Even without the infection risk it was detrimental to the UK economy.

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290390524050972674/photo/1

Wasn't the over 50s plan something that was "war gamed" - not a serious proposal they wanted to implement?

Nuclear war gets war gamed too. Fighting China in the Taiwan Strait gets war gamed. Doesn't mean we want that to happen. The media shouldn't run off with every war game as if that's what is actually going to happen.

I think you are right. But someone made a total hash of the media briefing. Or, as I think the Spectator is pointing out, someone who wanted the plan dead before it even left the wargaming table was doing the briefing.

another_richard said:

tlg86 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.

But that's always been the case.

The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.

I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

A prediction to remember.

Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.

I don't recall any media reports of such people being infected though.

Now I'm sure some will have been but they should already be showing in the numbers.

In reality the government isn't that bothered about those coming back now - though I think they should quarantine for the safety of people they know - but they are bothered about the potential for it to get really bad in Spain over the next month or so.

Whether the government should have got everyone's hopes up is another question. It was probably always likely to end up like this, but the government was under pressure to try to get things back to normal.

Encouraging foreign holidays was imbecilic.

Even without the infection risk it was detrimental to the UK economy.

Not sure BA or Easyjet or Heathrow would agree with that. Anyway its not up to government to encourage or discourage foreign travel (especially when the places they announced having no quarantine had no more cases than ourselves) Do we really want a govenment that nannies all activites of adults?

state_go_away said:

ukpaul said:

rottenborough said:

Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290390524050972674/photo/1

So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.

No they are goign to let over 50s assess their own risk which is more sensible that the orginal plan (if there really was one so draconian and nannying)

'Excuse me Mr employer, I have a heart condition, can I shield please?'

'Eff off, come into work with it or you're sacked. Oh, and if you wear a mask we'll sack you as well'.

It needs something official not using this supposed 'common sense'.

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:

Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290390524050972674/photo/1

I wonder whether Sunak's 50% off meals might be dropped as well if too many people avail themselves of it.

Reminds me of this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoover_free_flights_promotion

The idea was surely to rebuild confidence in people to get out and go to restaurants. If people have good half price meals and feel confident through August then in September they're not going to return to cowering at home with microwave meals on the sofa.

MattW said:

MattW said:

tlg86 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/fifisyms/status/1290360409430556673

Why doesn't a brave journalist just name him?

Ask Katie Holmes :-)

Whilst I'm sure that Katie Holmes has a valuable opinion.

Perhaps Katie Hopkins might give a more relevant answer

Sally Bercow is the one that immediately springs to mind with these things, and that was a ‘nudge-nudge’ rather than a direct outing of someone.

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:

Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290390524050972674/photo/1

I wonder whether Sunak's 50% off meals might be dropped as well if too many people avail themselves of it.

Reminds me of this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoover_free_flights_promotion

The idea was surely to rebuild confidence in people to get out and go to restaurants. If people have good half price meals and feel confident through August then in September they're not going to return to cowering at home with microwave meals on the sofa.

I think 12 or 13 days more smacks of an effective cap.

I'm half thinking this could be a masterstroke in cost-benefit terms.

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MattW said:

Rishi-in-a-Dishy

I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1290393330786893826

Alcohol is excluded from the deal

You can still reinvest your food saving on better plonk, which appears to be the OP’s intention.

That's basically what we did today, got an extra couple of bottles of wine and pretty good stuff too. Our per person cost actually worked out about the same as usual in the end but we had some decent wine and I think everyone was happy.

ukpaul said:

state_go_away said:

ukpaul said:

rottenborough said:

Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290390524050972674/photo/1

So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.

No they are goign to let over 50s assess their own risk which is more sensible that the orginal plan (if there really was one so draconian and nannying)

'Excuse me Mr employer, I have a heart condition, can I shield please?'

'Eff off, come into work with it or you're sacked. Oh, and if you wear a mask we'll sack you as well'.

It needs something official not using this supposed 'common sense'.

yes because we all agree the top brass of the tory party are so super at running the countyr we shoudl outsource all decisions of how to live your life to them. It is worrying to me the level that some people in this time want the government to tell them what to do all the time

state_go_away said:

MattW said:

MarqueeMark said:

stodge said:

rottenborough said:

I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

What do you think of this?


"If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.

"correct on most things"

LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.

I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.

If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.

"The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour"

Source please?

rottenborough said:

state_go_away said:

MattW said:

MarqueeMark said:

stodge said:

rottenborough said:

I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

What do you think of this?


"If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.

"correct on most things"

LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.

I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.

If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.

"The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour"

Source please?

I didnt say that somebody else did

another_richard said:

There's an impressive moon tonight - low down in the east.

Full moon tomorrow

Christ, IDS is even stupider than I thought.

https://twitter.com/Roger_Xanth_Day/status/1290398104110366722?s=20

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

@NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?

You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?

Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?

You very selectively quoted the WHO before. In fact, you stopped before the key part. Either you were ignorant, and should apologise, or were deliberately trying to be misleading.

Which is it?

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

@NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?

You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?

Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?

We got it down with unprecedented social distancing, i.e. everyone staying in their house. You don't need a mask if you don't go near anyone. As for the recommendation only being recent, I think that's a supply/demand thing.

For the record, this was Dr Ryan of the WHO:

"There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly,"

Which sounds like masks might not be a good idea.

But let's see how Dr Ryan continued:

"There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

So?

Was he really saying masks don't work (or might *cause* CV-19, a @NerysHughes view)... or was he saying that due to shortages, that masks stocks should be reserved for frontline workers.

IshmaelZ said:

another_richard said:

There's an impressive moon tonight - low down in the east.

Fantastic. And Saturn and Jupiter up a bit and right a bit.

I noticed them without knowing it was them.

MattW said:

IanB2 said:

MattW said:

Rishi-in-a-Dishy

I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1290393330786893826

The slope of that horizon suggests a photo taken coming out, rather than going in?

LOL !

It was taken when the sun prevented anything whatsoever being seen on the display :-))) . Anyhoo - in Notts we have hills, so I'm allowed.

And I was shopping for cookware not food, so drink had not yet been taken. Since chopsticks were among the purchases, too much drink will make the eating ineffective.

Just you wait for the slope on my Bilberry foraging photos.

I was just hoping everybody remembered the hand brake.

rcs1000 said:

state_go_away said:

rcs1000 said:

For the record, this was Dr Ryan of the WHO:

"There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly,"

Which sounds like masks might not be a good idea.

But let's see how Dr Ryan continued:

"There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

So?

Was he really saying masks don't work (or might *cause* CV-19, a @NerysHughes view)... or was he saying that due to shortages, that masks stocks should be reserved for frontline workers.

both it seems?

The thought of [front line workers] not having masks is horrific

Doesn't exactly suggest he thinks they are worthless.

Well the first bit does (for the general public)

NerysHughes said:

Ty

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

@NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?

You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?

Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?

We got it down with unprecedented social distancing, i.e. everyone staying in their house. You don't need a mask if you don't go near anyone. As for the recommendation only being recent, I think that's a supply/demand thing.

Do you really think that the WHO bases scientific advice on supply and demand. If mask wearing was good in March they would have said so. It’s not that hard to make your own face covering. They would have told people to do that. What they knew is that people who are not trained to wear masks, that’s right there is courses onit, would not wear them correctly and they would do more harm than good. It was only political pressure that changed this view.

In fact that's exactly what they said. See @rcs1000's post.

The bit where he said mask wearing by the general public would be detrimental? We have got to get away from the idea that what a surgeon may wear in hospital as a mask is in anyway similar to what people now wear shopping. A surgeon wears a face fitted mask. There is a day course on how to both fit and then wear them. They cannot have any facial hair and the mask has an airtight sill. We wear similar masks when we work in very dusty areas or near asbestos. It is like comparing Andy Murray with cliff richard. Both are tennis players but one is in a completely different league to the other. It’s the same with masks. Now if everyone wore a face fitted mask and wore it correctly then I would agree that they would help reduce virus transmission. But that is as likely as cliff Richard winning Wimbledon.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/

No, the bit where he said there was a global shortage. The quote is in rcs1000's post.

It seems like in pubs the staff are wearing masks and the customers aren't, and in most shops it's the other way round. Not sure what the logic of that is.

Andy_JS said:

It seems like in pubs the staff are wearing masks and the customers aren't, and in most shops it's the other way round. Not sure what the logic of that is.

If there's any logic, the pubs have it the right way around.

But given that there is more loud talking in pubs, everyone should be wearing a mask while not actively in the process of eating or drinking.

TimT said:

Andy_JS said:

It seems like in pubs the staff are wearing masks and the customers aren't, and in most shops it's the other way round. Not sure what the logic of that is.

If there's any logic, the pubs have it the right way around.

But given that there is more loud talking in pubs, everyone should be wearing a mask while not actively in the process of eating or drinking.

The whole point of pubs is to have some fun

state_go_away said:

rcs1000 said:

For the record, this was Dr Ryan of the WHO:

"There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly,"

Which sounds like masks might not be a good idea.

But let's see how Dr Ryan continued:

"There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

So?

Was he really saying masks don't work (or might *cause* CV-19, a @NerysHughes view)... or was he saying that due to shortages, that masks stocks should be reserved for frontline workers.

both it seems?

Once again, you have to view the comments of Ryan in the context of the mindset of mask-wearing prior to COVID and who wore them up to that point.

Primarily masks were worn by healthcare workers to protect the patient from infection (infection control), and by laboratory workers to protect them from infection (biosafety). The aim in both cases is 100% efficiency, hence training in mask fitting and so on and the warnings about the public getting a false sense of security through wearing masks improperly.

None of the research on masks up to that point had been on their effectiveness in managing a pandemic when used by the public, and none of the research had looked at the effectiveness of masks specifically in helping to contain the COVID pandemic.

We now have a lot of new research. To help contain a pandemic, masks do not have to be 100% effective, they merely have to contribute to getting R down. And the research specific to the use of masks in this context is unequivocal - they are very useful.

@NerysHughes - Do you think we should have restricted travel when this started?

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

@NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?

You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?

Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?

Our scientists came out with some absolute mince near the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile in Japan, a country with huge pop density and plenty of people total deaths are at just over a thousand. Reason ? Masks.

TimT said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

NerysHughes said:

Gallowgate said:

@NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?

You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?

Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?

Our scientists came out with some absolute mince near the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile in Japan, a country with huge pop density and plenty of people total deaths are at just over a thousand. Reason ? Masks.

Pulp, see my post at 11:37 server time. (6:37 where I am)

Yep, masks are not perfect but they do supress the reproductive rate of the virus.

NickPalmer said:

ClippP said:

state_go_away said:

MattW said:

MarqueeMark said:

stodge said:

rottenborough said:

I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

What do you think of this?


"If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.

"correct on most things"

LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.

I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.

If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.

As far as I can see, the only people talking about the posssibility of a meger between the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats are the PB Tories.

But then they would, wouldn´t they?

If the Greens were inclined to merge with anyone it would have been with Corbyn's Labour - they had almost identical programmes on a whole range of issues. But it really struck me at the Green conference that they're a totally different culture to Labour - perfectly willing to owrk together (I have a nice Green Exec colleague) but counter-culture dominates in a way that it never has with Labour (or the LibDems). They don't have the pragmatic centrist streak that dominates the German Greens.

An unintended side effect of PR. The Realos won in Germany cos of the prospect of power sharing.
The fundis dominate in the UK Greens. Because when you can't govern, purity is prioritised. Sidelining the Porritt/ David Bellamy ecologists.
The Greens are seen as extremists in a way they aren't in Germany. Where they are merely one of a wide range of potential coalition partners.

USA Dem VP slot betting sees Kamala Harris drift back out to even money on Betfair. I've removed Tammy Baldwin because 4 is almost certainly a false price, and three-figure prices are out there with the books. Karen Bass has drifted notably today.

Although Biden is not due to announce his choice till next week, it is likely to be finalised by this week so bear that in mind.

My position is currently all-green but I am seriously considering tilting it to favour Susan Rice who, on reflection, looks the most obvious choice, though I have no inside information. The 340s that at least one PBer secured about Rice is, alas, a distant memory.

Kamala Harris: 2.02
Susan Rice: 6
Tammy Duckworth: 9.6
Val Demings: 11
Elizabeth Warren: 12
Karen Bass: 15
Gretchen Whitmer: 36
Michelle Obama: 42
Gina Raimondo: 70
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 70
Michelle Lujan Grisham: 75
Hillary Clinton: 130
Stacey Abrams: 200