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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium finds a net 13% drop in two weeks in government’s “Coronavirus Handling” approval rating

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kinabalu

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

Richard_Nabavi

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

eek

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

I never had confidence in them, however I equally don't think anyone else would have done much better.

kinabalu

eek said:

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

I never had confidence in them, however I equally don't think anyone else would have done much better.

Hunt?

Scott_xP

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920

StuartDickson

Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.

Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.

With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx

rcs1000

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

ydoethur

In this pious hope that this thread will be third time lucky:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/jc_stubbs/status/1290294851917844481

@TheScreamingEagles

What was that about disgraced national security risks again?

ydoethur

Scott_xP said:

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920

Given that we don't actually have quarantine anyway, that would be the most meaningless diplomatic gesture since Andorra declared war on Germany.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/GlasgowAlbum/status/1290304742308982792

Philip_Thompson

Scott_xP said:

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920

Its logical. We can control the virus in our own country more than other countries and if people want to travel and go through airports then let them quarantine afterwards.

If people want to take a holiday then I'm sure there's UK destinations that could do with the customers!

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

In this pious hope that this thread will be third time lucky:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/jc_stubbs/status/1290294851917844481

@TheScreamingEagles

What was that about disgraced national security risks again?

Boris Johnson has at least two of them in the current cabinet, and Liam Fox he nominated for an important WTO job?

Is it any surprise a man called Boris might not have the best interest of Le Royaume-Uni at heart.

justin124

StuartDickson said:

Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.

Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.

With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx

Be wary of subsamples.The LDs would perform better than that in reality.

kle4

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.

StuartDickson said:

Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.

Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.

With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx

I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.

eek

kinabalu said:

eek said:

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

I never had confidence in them, however I equally don't think anyone else would have done much better.

Hunt?

RCS1000 outlines the problem better than I would.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Basically by the time you know you need to do something it's too late which means you need to hit things early which means you will need to hit them often which will eventually cause resentment.

Richard_Nabavi

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Yep, this is by any standards an incredibly challenging set of trade-offs, and it's fair to say that other countries are also finding it very hard to ease off lockdowns safely. Still, the government hasn't helped itself (or us) by screwing up the messaging so much, and the media have made it worse by their incessant whingeing at every stage - 'too fast, too slow, targeting BAME communities, not doing enough for BAME communities, putting the economy before public health, wrecking businesses...', and that's just one BBC news programme (any BBC news programme, it sometimes seems).

felix

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Malmesbury

England case data

Malmesbury

England case numbers -

Malmesbury

England case numbers scaled to 100k population

DecrepiterJohnL

ydoethur said:

In this pious hope that this thread will be third time lucky:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/jc_stubbs/status/1290294851917844481

@TheScreamingEagles

What was that about disgraced national security risks again?

That is the sort of detail that should have been in the Committee report Boris tried to suppress.

Philip_Thompson

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

If people were travelling between the mainland and the costas then it was quite probable the costas were two weeks behind the mainland.

contrarian

Whatever the arguments, the polls suggest many people seem quite content to put up with the restrictions they are having to endure

rcs1000

kle4 said:

I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.

The LibDems need some sort of policy that is enthusiastically supported by about 15% of the population, but which is ignored by the other 85%. Opposition to the Iraq war in the mid-2000s was one example of this.

In all likelihood something will come along - perhaps they end up being the lockdown-sceptics.

bigjohnowls

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

rpjs

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.

StuartDickson said:

Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.

Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.

With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx

I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.

Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.

Malmesbury

PHE all settings numbers -

Note the huge gap at the end, from the weekend reporting shadow.... Tomorrow, expect a big headline number as the lawyer with the kimono and the baseball bat comes off weekend break.

RH1992

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

[Snipped out to save scrolling]

Wonder what's going on in Leeds. It was pretty low for a few weeks, but then a bigger spike in the last few days. I know one of my friends who recently returned from Berlin tested positive and test and trace have been active with him.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Yep, this is by any standards an incredibly challenging set of trade-offs, and it's fair to say that other countries are also finding it very hard to ease off lockdowns safely. Still, the government hasn't helped itself (or us) by screwing up the messaging so much, and the media have made it worse by their incessant whingeing at every stage - 'too fast, too slow, targeting BAME communities, not doing enough for BAME communities, putting the economy before public health, wrecking businesses...', and that's just one BBC news programme (any BBC news programme, it sometimes seems).

The media complained and complained about quarantine in particular. The media clearly wanted their holidays even if most responsible people are staying in the UK and not going abroad this year.

TimT

FPT @ geoffw
TimT said:
» show previous quotes
"That would bump me up the list, so perhaps I should agree.

"Seriously, Redfield's comment about it needing to be seen to be fair and equitable, not just efficient and effective, is a key point."

geoffw said
"Sorry to differ with you about that. It is easy to agree on the words "fair and equitable" but also easy to dispute any particular notion of what that entails in practice. I think the sole aim is to control the epidemic, both the severity and the spread. A corollary could be that if it threatens to rage in poor countries with deficient health systems, then they should perhaps be prioritised."

At some point lack of 'fair and equitable' impairs the performance of 'efficient and effective'.

kle4

rpjs said:

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.

StuartDickson said:

Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.

Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.

With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx

I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.

Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.

I find it pretty incredible that the LDs barely lost Ceredigion in 2017, but came third in 2019, at a time where they were polling higher.

One of those odd seats that survived the 2015 cull but not 2017 to boot.

Malmesbury

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

contrarian

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

bigjohnowls

928 new positive tests in last 24hrs compared to 685 last week at the same time.

Seems like a marvelous opportunity to launch a scheme to get everyone to go to restaurants and eat for half price

TORY FIASCO

Gallowgate

RH1992 said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

[Snipped out to save scrolling]

Wonder what's going on in Leeds. It was pretty low for a few weeks, but then a bigger spike in the last few days. I know one of my friends who recently returned from Berlin tested positive and test and trace have been active with him.

Leeds getting promoted?

bigjohnowls

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

RochdalePioneers

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920

Its logical. We can control the virus in our own country more than other countries and if people want to travel and go through airports then let them quarantine afterwards.

If people want to take a holiday then I'm sure there's UK destinations that could do with the customers!

But we don't quarantine anyone

bigjohnowls

Gallowgate said:

RH1992 said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

[Snipped out to save scrolling]

Wonder what's going on in Leeds. It was pretty low for a few weeks, but then a bigger spike in the last few days. I know one of my friends who recently returned from Berlin tested positive and test and trace have been active with him.

Leeds getting promoted?

Has to be a link you would have thought

Malmesbury

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

RobD

.

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920

Its logical. We can control the virus in our own country more than other countries and if people want to travel and go through airports then let them quarantine afterwards.

If people want to take a holiday then I'm sure there's UK destinations that could do with the customers!

But we don't quarantine anyone

You are supposed to, aren't you?

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

.

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920

Its logical. We can control the virus in our own country more than other countries and if people want to travel and go through airports then let them quarantine afterwards.

If people want to take a holiday then I'm sure there's UK destinations that could do with the customers!

But we don't quarantine anyone

You are supposed to, aren't you?

Unless you want to go for an eye test.

rcs1000

kle4 said:

rpjs said:

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.

StuartDickson said:

Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.

Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.

With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx

I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.

Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.

I find it pretty incredible that the LDs barely lost Ceredigion in 2017, but came third in 2019, at a time where they were polling higher.

One of those odd seats that survived the 2015 cull but not 2017 to boot.

Of the eight seats that the LDs retained in 2015, I think they only won two in 2019 (Orkney & Shetland, and Westmoreland & Lonsdale). In the intervening period - despite adding three seats net - they managed to lose Eastbourne, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion, Carshalton & Wallington, North Norfolk, and Leeds North West.

RH1992

bigjohnowls said:

Gallowgate said:

RH1992 said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

[Snipped out to save scrolling]

Wonder what's going on in Leeds. It was pretty low for a few weeks, but then a bigger spike in the last few days. I know one of my friends who recently returned from Berlin tested positive and test and trace have been active with him.

Leeds getting promoted?

Has to be a link you would have thought

Could well be, I suppose I'll try and see which neighbourhoods have the highest spikes when the data comes out later in the week, because if it's NW Leeds it's more likely to be students misbehaving rather than that.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1290314623758012421

bigjohnowls

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

OldKingCole

kle4 said:

rpjs said:

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.

StuartDickson said:

Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.

Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.

With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx

I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.

Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.

I find it pretty incredible that the LDs barely lost Ceredigion in 2017, but came third in 2019, at a time where they were polling higher.

One of those odd seats that survived the 2015 cull but not 2017 to boot.

Get the impression that the PC, Ben Lake, put a LOT of work in. Local boy, too, and, in a constituency with a lot of Welsh speakers, he is. Which Williams wasn't

RobD

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

rcs1000

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

Yes.

But remember this rule of thumb: 14 days between infection and diagnosis, seven days between diagnosis and hospitalisation, and 14 days between hospitalisation and death. (Herman Cain having pretty much nailed that timetable, assuming he got his CV19 at Trump's Tulsa rally.)

That being said, the current age profile of infections (i.e. younger people) suggests that we won't see that much in the way of hospitalisations and deaths, at least initially. The problem occurs when Junior passes CV19 onto dad (who still feels fine and is presymptomatic), who then goes to see granddad.

There's a great heatmap for Florida showing how infection went from being all about 16-24 year olds a month ago, and are slowly but surely rising up the age brackets.

felix

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

No_Offence_Alan

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1290314623758012421

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1290314623758012421

What were the figures when "MP" is replaced by "pop singer" or "DJ"?

RobD

No_Offence_Alan said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1290314623758012421

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1290314623758012421

What were the figures when "MP" is replaced by "pop singer" or "DJ"?

Or "MP" with "Tory MP"/"Labour MP"

kinabalu

eek said:

kinabalu said:

eek said:

kinabalu said:

I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.

I never had confidence in them, however I equally don't think anyone else would have done much better.

Hunt?

RCS1000 outlines the problem better than I would.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Basically by the time you know you need to do something it's too late which means you need to hit things early which means you will need to hit them often which will eventually cause resentment.

It's a difficult thing to manage no question about that. But if the Tory leadership run off had gone differently we could have had a PM with the perfect profile for this. An unflappable and diligent guy who was Health Secretary for 7 years. Instead we have Boris Johnson.

So it's a case of what might have been and when contemplating this disastrous combination of Covid pandemic and PM "Boris" that's the word that tends to spring to my mind - Hunt.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1290316220844118019

TOPPING

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

RobD

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

Someone else posted here that Florida's numbers were primarily young when the outbreak started, but it's been gradually getting worse for the older folks.

DavidL

rpjs said:

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.

StuartDickson said:

Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.

Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.

With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx

I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.

Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.

Not before December? Damn. It's the only one missing on my 2020 apocalypse bingo.

rcs1000

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

The problem is that when restrictions are lifted, (young) people don't slowly increase their social circle, they suddenly go and do all the things they weren't previously allowed to do.

They go to nightclubs and bars and socialise with their friends and have a great time, and suddenly you country doesn't have 1,000 people with CV19, it has 25,000.

TOPPING

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

Someone else posted here that Florida's numbers were primarily young when the outbreak started, but it's been gradually getting worse for the older folks.

Is there a connection between the two?

RobD

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

Someone else posted here that Florida's numbers were primarily young when the outbreak started, but it's been gradually getting worse for the older folks.

Is there a connection between the two?

I think that was the implication.

MarqueeMark

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.

rcs1000

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

That's correct, initially.

But it's almost impossible to keep age groups truly separated. On Sunday, Junior comes home for dinner with his parents. Junior is presymptomatic and feels fine, but he might be highly contagious. He gives it to his 50 year old parents, who while also presymptomatic go and visit Granddad.

Result - Granddad gets it.

Malmesbury

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Transmission is happening, it seems, *a lot* at gatherings in private.

A commercial premises with actual distancing is probably safer.

TOPPING

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.

I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?

felix

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

Spanish people love to give 'besos y abrazos' to family and friends.!

geoffw

TimT said:

FPT @ geoffw
TimT said:
» show previous quotes
"That would bump me up the list, so perhaps I should agree.

"Seriously, Redfield's comment about it needing to be seen to be fair and equitable, not just efficient and effective, is a key point."

geoffw said
"Sorry to differ with you about that. It is easy to agree on the words "fair and equitable" but also easy to dispute any particular notion of what that entails in practice. I think the sole aim is to control the epidemic, both the severity and the spread. A corollary could be that if it threatens to rage in poor countries with deficient health systems, then they should perhaps be prioritised."

At some point lack of 'fair and equitable' impairs the performance of 'efficient and effective'.

It's too open to dispute. Who, or what mechanism, would make the decision? Does your wealth/income play any role? Or your race or gender or pre-existing conditions? Or your status as a celebrity/non-entity? Or your age? That last is difficult - the aged may not have many qualys left, but face the severest consequences. No, a purely random lottery seems to me the best way to allocate it if "fairness and equity" is the criterion. But as I said before, that should not be the approach, it should be solely focussed on containing the epidemic.

felix

https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc

8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!

Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!

felix

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

The problem is that when restrictions are lifted, (young) people don't slowly increase their social circle, they suddenly go and do all the things they weren't previously allowed to do.

They go to nightclubs and bars and socialise with their friends and have a great time, and suddenly you country doesn't have 1,000 people with CV19, it has 25,000.

Exactly what is happening in my local tourist hotspot Mojacar - they claim Disney was born here!

bigjohnowls

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?

TOPPING

felix said:

https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc

8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!

Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!

What has the testing incidence been like?

RobD

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?

Restaurants are typically seating 50 people at a time now? In any case, I would have thought the former was safer simply due to the distance. Meeting friends and family in your home without distancing seems far riskier. Isn't that the suspected cause of the outbreaks in the NW?

ydoethur

rpjs said:

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.

StuartDickson said:

Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.

Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.

With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx

I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.

Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.

Between 2005 and 2019 the Welsh Liberal Democrats lost almost exactly 164,000 voters (from 256,249 to 92,269) and all four of the seats they held. They went from a serious, nationwide force that spent time in government at Westminster and Cardiff level and was the second largest party by Westminster seats to a total irrelevance. Of the four seats they held, they are now second in just two, and a poor second at that. It is over five years since they won a seat at a general election - Ceredigion in 2015.

Do not assume they are coming back by an ineluctable swing of the pendulum from this collapse. They don't have the chapel vote to fall back on now - very few chapels survive at all in Wales - and the students and lecturers in Cardiff Central and Ceredigion have abandoned them.

Chelyabinsk

kinabalu said:

if the Tory leadership run off had gone differently we could have had a PM with the perfect profile for this. An unflappable and diligent guy who was Health Secretary for 7 years.

This has to rank as the biggest volte face on a political opponent since the American left canonised George W. Bush. Does anybody remember Hunt being described as "unflappable and diligent" during the doctor's strike?

felix

No_Offence_Alan said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1290314623758012421

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1290314623758012421

What were the figures when "MP" is replaced by "pop singer" or "DJ"?

Jess Philips hits the public mood again! And of course Malc G also. Apparently if you change MP to A former Scottish SNP leader the figures change again!

FeersumEnjineeya

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.

The LibDems need some sort of policy that is enthusiastically supported by about 15% of the population, but which is ignored by the other 85%. Opposition to the Iraq war in the mid-2000s was one example of this.

In all likelihood something will come along - perhaps they end up being the lockdown-sceptics.

Brexit, obviously. If I remember correctly, the LDs' opposition to the Iraq war didn't help them at all at the time. It was only in later years, as disillusionment with the war grew, that they were able to capitalise on their opposition to it. I expect something similar with Brexit, so long as they have a decent leader (please let it be Davey!).

RH1992

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?

I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.

felix

TOPPING said:

felix said:

https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc

8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!

Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!

What has the testing incidence been like?

Testing has ramped up in recent weeks but a lot of it is in response to outbreaks and sadly therefore a bit too late!

geoffw

felix said:

https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc

8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!

Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!

Jeez, stay safe!

TOPPING

felix said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc

8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!

Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!

What has the testing incidence been like?

Testing has ramped up in recent weeks but a lot of it is in response to outbreaks and sadly therefore a bit too late!

Yes we always need to know the testing because as was pointed out earlier on here, with the same testing regime we have now, earlier case incidence would have been astronomical.

felix

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

Easier said than done in Spanish families. And numbers in hospital/ICU are slowly heading up as well now. Hope I am wrong but fearing I'm not.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/Rob_Merrick/status/1290320830568816641

TOPPING

felix said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

Easier said than done in Spanish families. And numbers in hospital/ICU are slowly heading up as well now. Hope I am wrong but fearing I'm not.

Yes it's interesting. The govt is saying, effectively, you can't be trusted to keep yourselves safe so we will use administrative methods to do so.

Now it may well be that this is the right way to go about it. But some part of me thinks it is not a mode of government that I feel particularly happy or comfortable with.

felix

RH1992 said:

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?

I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.

Hmmm. Our latest outbreak casued by poorly paid waiters all living together in crowded accommodation. Our, local Mayor seems not to have realised any of these facts in advance. Mojacar has been a tourist town since the 1960s and she's lived here her entire life - indeed her family are major local employers....

Malmesbury

RH1992 said:

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?

I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.

The problem is also bigger private gatherings than 4 people. Some people think that 25 people in the living room is how things should be...

contrarian

I don't see how we square RCS's circle.

Even vaccines don;t prevent all deaths, old and vulnerable people still pass away in winter from flu and will from COVID.

We;re doomed to repeat this cycle until the economy collapses to such an extent that granny never gets to die of COVID, because she dies of undiagnosed cancer ten years earlier, or some other disease the health service of that country can no longer afford to treat because private sector revenues have evaporated.

RobD

felix said:

RH1992 said:

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?

I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.

Hmmm. Our latest outbreak casued by poorly paid waiters all living together in crowded accommodation. Our, local Mayor seems not to have realised any of these facts in advance. Mojacar has been a tourist town since the 1960s and she's lived here her entire life - indeed her family are major local employers....

Doesn't that actually support the point that the household is riskier than the restaurant?

TimT

Oh my! Ohio Biden 46, Trump 42

https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2020/08/03/2020-election-ohio-poll-trump-biden-voters-concerns/stories/20200728120

DecrepiterJohnL

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/Rob_Merrick/status/1290320830568816641

So the victim is (a) gullible, (b) not using a secured server, and (c) does not have multi-factor authentication (MFA) set up. Glad to see our National Cybersecurity Centre is earning its keep. I wonder how many Cabinet Ministers would hand over their passwords to anyone who phoned up claiming to be Dominic Cummings' new IT weirdo.

bigjohnowls

I have been to Cineworld twice since they reopened.

Friday afternoon. 4 members of staff visible, all concessions except pick and mix open. No bookings at all except me. I was only customer in foyer and only one in the screening. When i came out one of staff told me 5 films that afternoon 4 customers in total.

This afternoon There were 3 advance bookings according to their booking screen. Nobody except me in the foyer which i sat in for 10 mins None of the other 2 who booked for unhinged turned up attended.

Have now been twice, not seen another customer perhaps its me that is "unhinged"

Oh and why on earth are Cineworld not participants in help out to eat out? Are they eligible?

RIP Cineworld.

Tomorrow our bubble has a table for 4 at our local HOTO Restaurant. We are 50/50 about cancelling tonight to give them chance to re sell the table. Or will it be empty like the Cinema?

TimT

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?

If it were a completely sealed 50 vs a completely sealed 4, I'd say you would be right. If not completely sealed, with people from the home leaving to do work or shopping etc..., I think the evidence is clearly that the home situation spreads it more.

DecrepiterJohnL

Chelyabinsk said:

kinabalu said:

if the Tory leadership run off had gone differently we could have had a PM with the perfect profile for this. An unflappable and diligent guy who was Health Secretary for 7 years.

This has to rank as the biggest volte face on a political opponent since the American left canonised George W. Bush. Does anybody remember Hunt being described as "unflappable and diligent" during the doctor's strike?

I remember Hunt being described as the Health Secretary who sat on the Cygnus report that warned of shortfalls in equipment to handle a pandemic.

kle4

bigjohnowls said:

I have been to Cineworld twice since they reopened.

Friday afternoon. 4 members of staff visible, all concessions except pick and mix open. No bookings at all except me. I was only customer in foyer and only one in the screening. When i came out one of staff told me 5 films that afternoon 4 customers in total.

This afternoon There were 3 advance bookings according to their booking screen. Nobody except me in the foyer which i sat in for 10 mins None of the other 2 who booked for unhinged turned up attended.

Have now been twice, not seen another customer perhaps its me that is "unhinged"

Oh and why on earth are Cineworld not participants in help out to eat out? Are they eligible?

RIP Cineworld.

Tomorrow our bubble has a table for 4 at our local HOTO Restaurant. We are 50/50 about cancelling tonight to give them chance to re sell the table. Or will it be empty like the Cinema?

My local Odeon hasn't reopened yet, but I'd be worried - it was pretty empty a lot of the time anyway, despite the town being desperate for a cinema for 25 years.

felix

RobD said:

felix said:

RH1992 said:

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?

I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.

Hmmm. Our latest outbreak casued by poorly paid waiters all living together in crowded accommodation. Our, local Mayor seems not to have realised any of these facts in advance. Mojacar has been a tourist town since the 1960s and she's lived here her entire life - indeed her family are major local employers....

Doesn't that actually support the point that the household is riskier than the restaurant?

Oh sorry, yes I was disagreeing with the first one. I think. It's so hot here I need to hydrate!

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.

I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?

Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.

I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.

RobD

felix said:

RobD said:

felix said:

RH1992 said:

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

England case numbers -

Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?

Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.

Do you think there is a trend?

If so is it down, flat or rising?

Cases are rising.

Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.

Thanks Malmesbury

If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?

Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?

A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?

I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.

Hmmm. Our latest outbreak casued by poorly paid waiters all living together in crowded accommodation. Our, local Mayor seems not to have realised any of these facts in advance. Mojacar has been a tourist town since the 1960s and she's lived here her entire life - indeed her family are major local employers....

Doesn't that actually support the point that the household is riskier than the restaurant?

Oh sorry, yes I was disagreeing with the first one. I think. It's so hot here I need to hydrate!

The "hmm" was ambiguous enough, don't worry!

TOPPING

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.

I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?

Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.

I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.

That I suppose, as we all said right from the start, from before the start, that testing holds the key to the maintenance and survival of our economic health.

TimT

geoffw said:

TimT said:

FPT @ geoffw
TimT said:
» show previous quotes
"That would bump me up the list, so perhaps I should agree.

"Seriously, Redfield's comment about it needing to be seen to be fair and equitable, not just efficient and effective, is a key point."

geoffw said
"Sorry to differ with you about that. It is easy to agree on the words "fair and equitable" but also easy to dispute any particular notion of what that entails in practice. I think the sole aim is to control the epidemic, both the severity and the spread. A corollary could be that if it threatens to rage in poor countries with deficient health systems, then they should perhaps be prioritised."

At some point lack of 'fair and equitable' impairs the performance of 'efficient and effective'.

It's too open to dispute. Who, or what mechanism, would make the decision? Does your wealth/income play any role? Or your race or gender or pre-existing conditions? Or your status as a celebrity/non-entity? Or your age? That last is difficult - the aged may not have many qualys left, but face the severest consequences. No, a purely random lottery seems to me the best way to allocate it if "fairness and equity" is the criterion. But as I said before, that should not be the approach, it should be solely focussed on containing the epidemic.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. We simply disagree. Whatever route is taken, the public as a whole must have faith in it. Not just parts of the public.

In practice, I don't think our philosophical difference in approach would actually turn out that different in who gets it when.

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.

I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?

Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.

I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.

That I suppose, as we all said right from the start, from before the start, that testing holds the key to the maintenance and survival of our economic health.

Yes, I'm very interested to see what this new 90 minute test is all about. It could end be the difference with returning to mostly normal life for a vast majority of people and this half life until the vaccine comes. Even then, I think track and trace is a hugely important part of this and our track and trace system is rubbish, incedental meetings between strangers aren't tracked and people who break the rules are unwilling to share who else broke the rules with them to tracers so there is a gap in the testing regime.

TOPPING

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.

I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?

Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.

I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.

That I suppose, as we all said right from the start, from before the start, that testing holds the key to the maintenance and survival of our economic health.

Yes, I'm very interested to see what this new 90 minute test is all about. It could end be the difference with returning to mostly normal life for a vast majority of people and this half life until the vaccine comes. Even then, I think track and trace is a hugely important part of this and our track and trace system is rubbish, incedental meetings between strangers aren't tracked and people who break the rules are unwilling to share who else broke the rules with them to tracers so there is a gap in the testing regime.

A friend went to Kew Gardens the other day and was asked for their number/details. They said no. Going to a pub and being contacted is one thing but to be potentially locked down because someone an acre away tests positive is going to be challenging to agree to.

MaxPB

On how to distribute a vaccine it should be given to economically productive middle aged people first and then the economically productive young with the second batch. Ensuring those who are most likely to get and therefore spread it will minimise the chances of another mass outbreak. I'd suggest that older people should be close to last in line as they will benefit from herd immunity and there will be less chance of side effects becoming severe.

I'm sure if the government pursue this strategy reams of paper and petabytes of internet traffic will be dedicated to how callous the approach is and how the government are abandoning vulnerable people but with a limited supply the economy takes priority.

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.

The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:

There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.

Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.

Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.

Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some time

The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!

Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?

The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.

I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?

Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.

I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.

That I suppose, as we all said right from the start, from before the start, that testing holds the key to the maintenance and survival of our economic health.

Yes, I'm very interested to see what this new 90 minute test is all about. It could end be the difference with returning to mostly normal life for a vast majority of people and this half life until the vaccine comes. Even then, I think track and trace is a hugely important part of this and our track and trace system is rubbish, incedental meetings between strangers aren't tracked and people who break the rules are unwilling to share who else broke the rules with them to tracers so there is a gap in the testing regime.

A friend went to Kew Gardens the other day and was asked for their number/details. They said no. Going to a pub and being contacted is one thing but to be potentially locked down because someone an acre away tests positive is going to be challenging to agree to.

Yes absolutely agreed, I don't see any mileage in asking for details at somewhere like Kew Gardens though unless they went to the restaurant. It's gigantic and almost all outdoors.