Re barber shops, thought I'd seen their near-total extinction.
When yours truly was a lad, was expected (make that ordered) to get haircut no less than once every other week. There were two barber shops in my small home town. One was a major community center - for men - and you always had to wait. Plenty of conversation, but 99.46% was sports or hunting, both of which bored me sillly.
SO usually went to the 2nd shop, which was way less busy. Never a line that I ever saw. Perhaps because the barber was slightly eccentric (in a small town, not English noble way) AND liked to talk politics. Which I was already finding of interest. AND didn't bother me that this barber was a BIG fan of George Wallace, whereas I was NOT. Was too young to argue with him (at least in that time & place) so I just listened a lot.
Few years later I started rebelling against my Dad's haircut schedule. AND a new avenue opened in the 70s - men having their hair "styled" by women, often in women's beauty shops. Which was WAY more fun than when some guy did it - PLUS you were much less likely to end up looking like a Marine in boot camp.
Finally got to point of semi-superannuation where I decided to stop getting (what was left of) my hair cut at all. And strangely enough, it pretty much stopped growing, or at least getting any longer.
Well, Brexit does mean Brexit! The countries that the EU members are willing to help remain in the Union. Isn't that what Unions are for, mutual support?
Your fellow Brits don't agree with you.
No, it reads to me as if my fellow Britons remain (net) keen to help out EU countries in trouble, even though we left the Union.
Sadly, the last few days' announcements by the Govt. seem to have proven my comments from June right. We have very little leeway to open up society and the economy whilst this virus is in the wild. I suspect we'll be going backwards into more restrictions as the days shorten and the weather worsens.
We managed a domestic holiday (4 nights) and a few weekend's with family, but I don't think we'll be doing much else for the rest of the summer or autumn now. We live by the sea, in a house with a garden, and so are absolutely privileged. I really do feel for those who have little outside space or easy (and relatively safe) leisure provision. This is going to be a long old year.
Well, Brexit does mean Brexit! The countries that the EU members are willing to help remain in the Union. Isn't that what Unions are for, mutual support?
Your fellow Brits don't agree with you.
Tbh, I don't know how useful the UK responses are because we've just been reading about how the UK escaped from a £100bn bill, for other EU countries this a much more real situation which makes sense.
Quick look at the evening polling news from the other side of the Pond.
Biden up four in Ohio (48-44) - a state Trump won by eight last time.
Trump up 11 in Montana (53-42),a state he won by 21 (57-36) last time so once again a swing of 5-6% and this is something we are seeing in the State polls - not universally, not consistently but a general 5-6% swing away from Trump to Biden.
Better news for Trump from the daily Rasmussen Presidential approval poll which was Trump back to +4 (51-47).
The pubs have been open for a month, so if people getting pissed and breathing over each other were going to cause a tsunami wave of cases (as opposed to isolated instances where groups have behaved like knobs or got very unlucky) then one has to assume that this would've started by now.
That leaves, as the source for this fresh explosion, the holidaymakers. Were there enough of them out in Spain, were there enough cases abroad in the places where most of them were visiting for a sufficiently large number to become infected, and have they then been insufficiently compliant with the demand to quarantine on top of that, for this to trigger off a major new burst of community transmission? You may be right, but colour me sceptical.
I think there's far more to it than that. Certainly in my neck of the woods I've seen the gradual breakdown of social distancing and even mask wearing to the extent I now look unusual wearing my mask in East Ham High Street.
Whether this will lead to a "tsunami" of cases is debatable but if we do get more cases and have to endure a re-tightening of restrictions, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
So Tories largest party and almost certainly with a majority of English seats but Starmer becomes PM with SNP and Plaid and Green support or SNP and LDs support
UNS would imply 46 Labour gains taking them to circa 250 with the Tories at circa 315.Unlikely the SNP would win 58 - Orkney & Shetland would surely remain LibDem.
I don't know. Mr Carmichael was arguably badly damaged by the unfortunate court case a few years back, arising from his allegations about the Scottish Government and the French Consulate. He lost some of his majority at the last election.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
Well, if you are ultimately proven correct then I think the British population can wave bye-bye to overseas holidays for the rest of the year at least. Quite how the Government survives the pressure to shut the international travel industry back down again under such dire circumstances, I don't know.
My four-fold forecast is the consequence of pubs having been reopened, and many more seed cases. Now, I could be stereotyping, but I suspect the same kind of people who go on holiday to Spain are the ones who are likely to go to the pubs. You combine a few thousand seed cases from Spain and some general re-opening, and what do you expect?
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
The pubs have been open for a month, so if people getting pissed and breathing over each other were going to cause a tsunami wave of cases (as opposed to isolated instances where groups have behaved like knobs or got very unlucky) then one has to assume that this would've started by now.
That leaves, as the source for this fresh explosion, the holidaymakers. Were there enough of them out in Spain, were there enough cases abroad in the places where most of them were visiting for a sufficiently large number to become infected, and have they then been insufficiently compliant with the demand to quarantine on top of that, for this to trigger off a major new burst of community transmission? You may be right, but colour me sceptical.
I think there's far more to it than that. Certainly in my neck of the woods I've seen the gradual breakdown of social distancing and even mask wearing to the extent I now look unusual wearing my mask in East Ham High Street.
Whether this will lead to a "tsunami" of cases is debatable but if we do get more cases and have to endure a re-tightening of restrictions, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
If that's the case then it's certainly not happening everywhere. My experience round here is that people have given into the mask edict since it came into force and the hospitality establishments appear to be taking their responsibilities seriously. That, coupled with the fact that we're not seeing widespread reports of new clusters all over the country, suggests that real problems are confined to certain localities and that the Government approach of taking a cricket bat to those areas whilst leaving everyone else well alone is currently working.
As always, however, one has to add the caveat that this may not survive the schools going back. A kiddie-related disaster seems to me to be the most likely cause of a blanket reimposition of restrictions. We should have an answer to this puzzle by the end of September, or possibly sooner if things go seriously pear-shaped in Scotland.
Re all these blow by blow polls - it's not now that matters is it. Plenty of time for recriminations. These polls exist to keep pollsters, media and punters happy (or not).
Broadly, I support the defendants right to anonymity, at least until charged.
It is possible though (and as has happened in a number of historic and contemporary cases) that being named may bring out a lot of similar #metoo victims.
The pubs have been open for a month, so if people getting pissed and breathing over each other were going to cause a tsunami wave of cases (as opposed to isolated instances where groups have behaved like knobs or got very unlucky) then one has to assume that this would've started by now.
That leaves, as the source for this fresh explosion, the holidaymakers. Were there enough of them out in Spain, were there enough cases abroad in the places where most of them were visiting for a sufficiently large number to become infected, and have they then been insufficiently compliant with the demand to quarantine on top of that, for this to trigger off a major new burst of community transmission? You may be right, but colour me sceptical.
I think there's far more to it than that. Certainly in my neck of the woods I've seen the gradual breakdown of social distancing and even mask wearing to the extent I now look unusual wearing my mask in East Ham High Street.
Whether this will lead to a "tsunami" of cases is debatable but if we do get more cases and have to endure a re-tightening of restrictions, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
If that's the case then it's certainly not happening everywhere. My experience round here is that people have given into the mask edict since it came into force and the hospitality establishments appear to be taking their responsibilities seriously. That, coupled with the fact that we're not seeing widespread reports of new clusters all over the country, suggests that real problems are confined to certain localities and that the Government approach of taking a cricket bat to those areas whilst leaving everyone else well alone is currently working.
As always, however, one has to add the caveat that this may not survive the schools going back. A kiddie-related disaster seems to me to be the most likely cause of a blanket reimposition of restrictions. We should have an answer to this puzzle by the end of September, or possibly sooner if things go seriously pear-shaped in Scotland.
I was out running errands in Leicester at the weekend. Mask compliance was near universal.
The pubs have been open for a month, so if people getting pissed and breathing over each other were going to cause a tsunami wave of cases (as opposed to isolated instances where groups have behaved like knobs or got very unlucky) then one has to assume that this would've started by now.
That leaves, as the source for this fresh explosion, the holidaymakers. Were there enough of them out in Spain, were there enough cases abroad in the places where most of them were visiting for a sufficiently large number to become infected, and have they then been insufficiently compliant with the demand to quarantine on top of that, for this to trigger off a major new burst of community transmission? You may be right, but colour me sceptical.
I think there's far more to it than that. Certainly in my neck of the woods I've seen the gradual breakdown of social distancing and even mask wearing to the extent I now look unusual wearing my mask in East Ham High Street.
Whether this will lead to a "tsunami" of cases is debatable but if we do get more cases and have to endure a re-tightening of restrictions, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
If that's the case then it's certainly not happening everywhere. My experience round here is that people have given into the mask edict since it came into force and the hospitality establishments appear to be taking their responsibilities seriously. That, coupled with the fact that we're not seeing widespread reports of new clusters all over the country, suggests that real problems are confined to certain localities and that the Government approach of taking a cricket bat to those areas whilst leaving everyone else well alone is currently working.
As always, however, one has to add the caveat that this may not survive the schools going back. A kiddie-related disaster seems to me to be the most likely cause of a blanket reimposition of restrictions. We should have an answer to this puzzle by the end of September, or possibly sooner if things go seriously pear-shaped in Scotland.
Indeed. The mid-August (as usual) end of the summer holidays in Scotland is going to be interesting.
The pubs have been open for a month, so if people getting pissed and breathing over each other were going to cause a tsunami wave of cases (as opposed to isolated instances where groups have behaved like knobs or got very unlucky) then one has to assume that this would've started by now.
That leaves, as the source for this fresh explosion, the holidaymakers. Were there enough of them out in Spain, were there enough cases abroad in the places where most of them were visiting for a sufficiently large number to become infected, and have they then been insufficiently compliant with the demand to quarantine on top of that, for this to trigger off a major new burst of community transmission? You may be right, but colour me sceptical.
I think there's far more to it than that. Certainly in my neck of the woods I've seen the gradual breakdown of social distancing and even mask wearing to the extent I now look unusual wearing my mask in East Ham High Street.
Whether this will lead to a "tsunami" of cases is debatable but if we do get more cases and have to endure a re-tightening of restrictions, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
If that's the case then it's certainly not happening everywhere. My experience round here is that people have given into the mask edict since it came into force and the hospitality establishments appear to be taking their responsibilities seriously. That, coupled with the fact that we're not seeing widespread reports of new clusters all over the country, suggests that real problems are confined to certain localities and that the Government approach of taking a cricket bat to those areas whilst leaving everyone else well alone is currently working.
As always, however, one has to add the caveat that this may not survive the schools going back. A kiddie-related disaster seems to me to be the most likely cause of a blanket reimposition of restrictions. We should have an answer to this puzzle by the end of September, or possibly sooner if things go seriously pear-shaped in Scotland.
I'm surprised that there's no fuss about Scotland front running. I know its school year starts much earlier but still .....
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
Well, if you are ultimately proven correct then I think the British population can wave bye-bye to overseas holidays for the rest of the year at least. Quite how the Government survives the pressure to shut the international travel industry back down again under such dire circumstances, I don't know.
My four-fold forecast is the consequence of pubs having been reopened, and many more seed cases. Now, I could be stereotyping, but I suspect the same kind of people who go on holiday to Spain are the ones who are likely to go to the pubs. You combine a few thousand seed cases from Spain and some general re-opening, and what do you expect?
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
I though this was an interesting case report, that may be relevant to school reopenings:
Broadly, I support the defendants right to anonymity, at least until charged.
It is possible though (and as has happened in a number of historic and contemporary cases) that being named may bring out a lot of similar #metoo victims.
Personally I think either both parties should have the right to anonymity or neither should. I still haven't gotten my head around the conviction and then acquittal of Ched Evans. As I understand it, the evidence that cleared him should never have made it to court.
I can't see it myself. While the Green Lib Dems are a strong faction within the party, I don't think a formal merger is on the cards.
I don't think the 2019 tactic of standing down for each other helped much in reality.
If Layla wins won't LD simply merge with Official Monster Raving Loony Party?
The OMRLP have standards.
I remember an analysis of the differing policies of the MRLP and the Brexit Party. One had to guess which of a number of offered policies belonged to the MRLP or BP. It was not easy, partly because the MRLP were actually quite sensible ...
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
Well, if you are ultimately proven correct then I think the British population can wave bye-bye to overseas holidays for the rest of the year at least. Quite how the Government survives the pressure to shut the international travel industry back down again under such dire circumstances, I don't know.
My four-fold forecast is the consequence of pubs having been reopened, and many more seed cases. Now, I could be stereotyping, but I suspect the same kind of people who go on holiday to Spain are the ones who are likely to go to the pubs. You combine a few thousand seed cases from Spain and some general re-opening, and what do you expect?
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
Whether you are right, or whether you are wrong on cases., hospital admissions and deaths is debatable.
What is not debatable is that many people, possibly millions, are going to lose everything they have because of the measures being taken to avoid the scenaro you sketch out.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from the severe economic hardship that is a direct cause of those measures.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from undiagnosed diseases because of the terror causes by the government's propaganda on COVID and the authorities' obsession with it,
I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.
I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.
I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.
The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
Well, if you are ultimately proven correct then I think the British population can wave bye-bye to overseas holidays for the rest of the year at least. Quite how the Government survives the pressure to shut the international travel industry back down again under such dire circumstances, I don't know.
My four-fold forecast is the consequence of pubs having been reopened, and many more seed cases. Now, I could be stereotyping, but I suspect the same kind of people who go on holiday to Spain are the ones who are likely to go to the pubs. You combine a few thousand seed cases from Spain and some general re-opening, and what do you expect?
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
Whether you are right, or whether you are wrong on cases., hospital admissions and deaths is debatable.
What is not debatable is that many people, possibly millions, are going to lose everything they have because of the measures being taken to avoid the scenaro you sketch out.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from the severe economic hardship that is a direct cause of those measures.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from undiagnosed diseases because of the terror causes by the government's propaganda on COVID and the authorities' obsession with it,
These aren't debatable. They are certain.
Even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow a great proportion of the population simply ain't going back to the old way of living until they are vaccinated.
Another way of looking at it is the economy is going to be f*ed either way given people are not going back to the old ways, so that being the case why not save as many lives as possible?
The advertising on here seems to be getting ever more bizarre - I am now being targeted with Japanese sweet adverts (complete with Japanese script).
Who write these algorithms?
For several days have noticed that instead of usual political ads the banner on my version of PB features ads for women's clothing. In sizes simply too large for yours truly. PLUS can NOT deal with having to button from wrong side.
Anecdote report on the Governments food offer. Restaurants and pubs round here are packed
and here as well - cinema had 10 people in for the film when I went a couple of days ago. Hope cinemas survive this too stringent imposition of mask wearing in a couple of days time
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
Well, if you are ultimately proven correct then I think the British population can wave bye-bye to overseas holidays for the rest of the year at least. Quite how the Government survives the pressure to shut the international travel industry back down again under such dire circumstances, I don't know.
My four-fold forecast is the consequence of pubs having been reopened, and many more seed cases. Now, I could be stereotyping, but I suspect the same kind of people who go on holiday to Spain are the ones who are likely to go to the pubs. You combine a few thousand seed cases from Spain and some general re-opening, and what do you expect?
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
Whether you are right, or whether you are wrong on cases., hospital admissions and deaths is debatable.
What is not debatable is that many people, possibly millions, are going to lose everything they have because of the measures being taken to avoid the scenaro you sketch out.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from the severe economic hardship that is a direct cause of those measures.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from undiagnosed diseases because of the terror causes by the government's propaganda on COVID and the authorities' obsession with it,
These aren't debatable. They are certain.
Even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow a great proportion of the population simply ain't going back to the old way of living until they are vaccinated.
Another way of looking at it is the economy is going to be f*ed either way given people are not going back to the old ways, so that being the case why not save as many lives as possible?
And the people who are most afraid to go out are also, for the most part (and quite understandably) the medically vulnerable - those with serious chronic conditions and the old.
Should local measures therefore fail to contain a resurgence of this disease then that constitutes a good argument for segmentation - instructing these groups to go back into some form of lockdown and letting the remainder of the population just get on with it. Which is, of course, precisely the scenario that the Government is reported to have war-gamed. It has denied doing it of course, because the grey vote would wail about the unfairness of it all bitterly, loudly and continuously were it to come to pass - but it has a great deal more sense to it than regressing all the way back to April.
Indeed, whilst I can see some blanket tightening of restrictions being possible, a wholesale return to national lockdown ain't happening. The fact that we are unable to afford it can't simply be airily waved away.
Though, of course, locking up the olds isn't the only weapon that the Government might consider deploying to keep the dreaded R number under one. If the evidence from Scotland suggests that the primary school kids aren't causing a serious problem but the older ones are, then I can see the former staying in classrooms but the latter ending up back on Zoom again. Closing hospitality back down and creating several million additional unemployed in order to provide the breathing room to keep all the schools open isn't a thing to be taken lightly, either.
Anecdote report on the Governments food offer. Restaurants and pubs round here are packed
and here as well - cinema had 10 people in for the film when I went a couple of days ago. Hope cinemas survive this too stringent imposition of mask wearing in a couple of days time
It may just be that the cinema, as a venue, is on its way out. Not so long ago, massive flat panel ultra HD TV sets were for the rich, and not so long before that such things did not exist. But the world's moved on, and so have internet streaming services.
Give it another ten years and it's quite possible that the whole sector may have gone the way of VHS video cassettes, rendered obsolete by modern technology.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
Well, if you are ultimately proven correct then I think the British population can wave bye-bye to overseas holidays for the rest of the year at least. Quite how the Government survives the pressure to shut the international travel industry back down again under such dire circumstances, I don't know.
My four-fold forecast is the consequence of pubs having been reopened, and many more seed cases. Now, I could be stereotyping, but I suspect the same kind of people who go on holiday to Spain are the ones who are likely to go to the pubs. You combine a few thousand seed cases from Spain and some general re-opening, and what do you expect?
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
Whether you are right, or whether you are wrong on cases., hospital admissions and deaths is debatable.
What is not debatable is that many people, possibly millions, are going to lose everything they have because of the measures being taken to avoid the scenaro you sketch out.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from the severe economic hardship that is a direct cause of those measures.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from undiagnosed diseases because of the terror causes by the government's propaganda on COVID and the authorities' obsession with it,
These aren't debatable. They are certain.
Even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow a great proportion of the population simply ain't going back to the old way of living until they are vaccinated.
Another way of looking at it is the economy is going to be f*ed either way given people are not going back to the old ways, so that being the case why not save as many lives as possible?
And the people who are most afraid to go out are also, for the most part (and quite understandably) the medically vulnerable - those with serious chronic conditions and the old.
Should local measures therefore fail to contain a resurgence of this disease then that constitutes a good argument for segmentation - instructing these groups to go back into some form of lockdown and letting the remainder of the population just get on with it. Which is, of course, precisely the scenario that the Government is reported to have war-gamed. It has denied doing it of course, because the grey vote would wail about the unfairness of it all bitterly, loudly and continuously were it to come to pass - but it has a great deal more sense to it than regressing all the way back to April.
Indeed, whilst I can see some blanket tightening of restrictions being possible, a wholesale return to national lockdown ain't happening. The fact that we are unable to afford it can't simply be airily waved away.
Though, of course, locking up the olds isn't the only weapon that the Government might consider deploying to keep the dreaded R number under one. If the evidence from Scotland suggests that the primary school kids aren't causing a serious problem but the older ones are, then I can see the former staying in classrooms but the latter ending up back on Zoom again. Closing hospitality back down and creating several million additional unemployed in order to provide the breathing room to keep all the schools open isn't a thing to be taken lightly, either.
Just shielding the most at risk won't reduce R. But it would reduce the death toll.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
Well, if you are ultimately proven correct then I think the British population can wave bye-bye to overseas holidays for the rest of the year at least. Quite how the Government survives the pressure to shut the international travel industry back down again under such dire circumstances, I don't know.
My four-fold forecast is the consequence of pubs having been reopened, and many more seed cases. Now, I could be stereotyping, but I suspect the same kind of people who go on holiday to Spain are the ones who are likely to go to the pubs. You combine a few thousand seed cases from Spain and some general re-opening, and what do you expect?
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
Whether you are right, or whether you are wrong on cases., hospital admissions and deaths is debatable.
What is not debatable is that many people, possibly millions, are going to lose everything they have because of the measures being taken to avoid the scenaro you sketch out.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from the severe economic hardship that is a direct cause of those measures.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from undiagnosed diseases because of the terror causes by the government's propaganda on COVID and the authorities' obsession with it,
These aren't debatable. They are certain.
Presumably, then, countries which did not impose a lockdown, like Sweden, are doing better economically?
Oh wait. No they're not.
Sweden's PMIs are worse than ours, and are still sub-50. Unemployment there is also continuing to rise. Consumer spending is also still below pre-CV19 levels while ours has bounced back.
If people don't feel safe, they don't go out. You get de facto, rather than de jure lockdowns. And this lasts a long time, because the viral incidence doesn't really go away.
If you remove the lockdown in the UK now, you get a month or six weeks of everyone saying "Whoopee!" and then you get a de facto lockdown, as cases skyrocket and people stay home.
We had a perfect opportunity to slowly remove restrictions. But - sadly - with things like stupidly opening up to Spanish tourism, we've blown it.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
Well, if you are ultimately proven correct then I think the British population can wave bye-bye to overseas holidays for the rest of the year at least. Quite how the Government survives the pressure to shut the international travel industry back down again under such dire circumstances, I don't know.
My four-fold forecast is the consequence of pubs having been reopened, and many more seed cases. Now, I could be stereotyping, but I suspect the same kind of people who go on holiday to Spain are the ones who are likely to go to the pubs. You combine a few thousand seed cases from Spain and some general re-opening, and what do you expect?
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
Whether you are right, or whether you are wrong on cases., hospital admissions and deaths is debatable.
What is not debatable is that many people, possibly millions, are going to lose everything they have because of the measures being taken to avoid the scenaro you sketch out.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from the severe economic hardship that is a direct cause of those measures.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from undiagnosed diseases because of the terror causes by the government's propaganda on COVID and the authorities' obsession with it,
These aren't debatable. They are certain.
Even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow a great proportion of the population simply ain't going back to the old way of living until they are vaccinated.
Another way of looking at it is the economy is going to be f*ed either way given people are not going back to the old ways, so that being the case why not save as many lives as possible?
And the people who are most afraid to go out are also, for the most part (and quite understandably) the medically vulnerable - those with serious chronic conditions and the old.
Ummm no
not remotely accurate from my experience.
Young (30's) friends who used to spent 3 or 4 nights in pub each week not going out at all.
Very rich friends (40s) who travel extensively don't leave the house at all any more, everything done on internet shopping.
You're world is very very different to the one I observe.
I flew out of Manchester airport on Friday, it was a ghost town, not because the old and vulnerable are scared, but because a huge part of the population is scared and won't re-ignite the economy until they are vaccinated.
Your starting premise is totally wrong from my observations
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.
I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.
I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.
The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
"correct on most things"
LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Back from my Rishi sponsored dinner, can confirm many diners, tables around 1m apart, Rishi and the restaurants have been very lucky with the weather and Camden council have been very good about using pavements for outdoor seating and closing lanes etc for more seating in the evenings.
Chatted to the restaurant owner who we know and he said they had enough tables to run at 120% of normal capacity because of outdoor seating, the August weather has been a godsend and with a good forecast until the end of the month he thinks that they may be able to turn a profit. Monday to Wednesday bookings this week are almost at capacity and Thursday to Sunday at around half, he hopes that as people start to come out because of the chancellor's scheme they will become more confident.
On cleaning measures - all staff were in masks and they had a COVID instruction leaflet which was well done and it gave a rundown of how to do things and what other precautions are being taken. One good example was that they requested for one person per group to do all of the ordering with the waitress and for that person to be wearing a mask while doing the ordering. Masks to be worn when walking to the table and at all times when not at the table (going to the bathroom).
Overall it was a good experience, I didn't find the COVID measures impacted on dinner at all other than putting the mask on to do the ordering for a group of six indecisive people.
I'm really hoping that the summer will help restaurants and pubs, but I'm worried that once all of the outdoor seating areas are no longer worthwhile due to rain/cold it's going to be very tough. The owner of this place said their only hope is a vaccine programme before the end of the year or he's going to be out of business without government help to keep the lights on and staff in jobs.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
The main infection vector in Spain was bars and nightclubs among young people where there aren't any rules about mask wearing. Your crusade against masks is very odd.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Aren't most countries enforcing mask wearing? So anywhere it is currently going down.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Aren't most countries enforcing mask wearing? So anywhere it is currently going down.
Here in Switzerland mask wearing is minimal.
Meant to be worn on public transport but a significant minority are not.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
I don't recall any media reports of such people being infected though.
Now I'm sure some will have been but they should already be showing in the numbers.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
I don't recall any media reports of such people being infected though.
Now I'm sure some will have been but they should already be showing in the numbers.
In reality the government isn't that bothered about those coming back now - though I think they should quarantine for the safety of people they know - but they are bothered about the potential for it to get really bad in Spain over the next month or so.
Whether the government should have got everyone's hopes up is another question. It was probably always likely to end up like this, but the government was under pressure to try to get things back to normal.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
Well, if you are ultimately proven correct then I think the British population can wave bye-bye to overseas holidays for the rest of the year at least. Quite how the Government survives the pressure to shut the international travel industry back down again under such dire circumstances, I don't know.
My four-fold forecast is the consequence of pubs having been reopened, and many more seed cases. Now, I could be stereotyping, but I suspect the same kind of people who go on holiday to Spain are the ones who are likely to go to the pubs. You combine a few thousand seed cases from Spain and some general re-opening, and what do you expect?
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
Whether you are right, or whether you are wrong on cases., hospital admissions and deaths is debatable.
What is not debatable is that many people, possibly millions, are going to lose everything they have because of the measures being taken to avoid the scenaro you sketch out.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from the severe economic hardship that is a direct cause of those measures.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from undiagnosed diseases because of the terror causes by the government's propaganda on COVID and the authorities' obsession with it,
These aren't debatable. They are certain.
Even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow a great proportion of the population simply ain't going back to the old way of living until they are vaccinated.
Another way of looking at it is the economy is going to be f*ed either way given people are not going back to the old ways, so that being the case why not save as many lives as possible?
And the people who are most afraid to go out are also, for the most part (and quite understandably) the medically vulnerable - those with serious chronic conditions and the old.
Ummm no
not remotely accurate from my experience.
Young (30's) friends who used to spent 3 or 4 nights in pub each week not going out at all.
Very rich friends (40s) who travel extensively don't leave the house at all any more, everything done on internet shopping.
You're world is very very different to the one I observe.
I flew out of Manchester airport on Friday, it was a ghost town, not because the old and vulnerable are scared, but because a huge part of the population is scared and won't re-ignite the economy until they are vaccinated.
Your starting premise is totally wrong from my observations
I agree. The perfectly healthy Fox jr and his girlfriend follow the Leicester lockdown carefully. It is the older folks down the pub.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Mask wearing is a reaction to rising case numbers. So your analogy is a like saying "is there anywhere in the world with rising prison numbers that is not also seeing rising crime?".
But if you want to see some proper research, feel free to read the following:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
The main infection vector in Spain was bars and nightclubs among young people where there aren't any rules about mask wearing. Your crusade against masks is very odd.
Why would people get CV19 from nightclubs and bars, when they could get it outside from mask wearing?
The pubs have been open for a month, so if people getting pissed and breathing over each other were going to cause a tsunami wave of cases (as opposed to isolated instances where groups have behaved like knobs or got very unlucky) then one has to assume that this would've started by now.
That leaves, as the source for this fresh explosion, the holidaymakers. Were there enough of them out in Spain, were there enough cases abroad in the places where most of them were visiting for a sufficiently large number to become infected, and have they then been insufficiently compliant with the demand to quarantine on top of that, for this to trigger off a major new burst of community transmission? You may be right, but colour me sceptical.
I think there's far more to it than that. Certainly in my neck of the woods I've seen the gradual breakdown of social distancing and even mask wearing to the extent I now look unusual wearing my mask in East Ham High Street.
Whether this will lead to a "tsunami" of cases is debatable but if we do get more cases and have to endure a re-tightening of restrictions, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
If that's the case then it's certainly not happening everywhere. My experience round here is that people have given into the mask edict since it came into force and the hospitality establishments appear to be taking their responsibilities seriously. That, coupled with the fact that we're not seeing widespread reports of new clusters all over the country, suggests that real problems are confined to certain localities and that the Government approach of taking a cricket bat to those areas whilst leaving everyone else well alone is currently working.
As always, however, one has to add the caveat that this may not survive the schools going back. A kiddie-related disaster seems to me to be the most likely cause of a blanket reimposition of restrictions. We should have an answer to this puzzle by the end of September, or possibly sooner if things go seriously pear-shaped in Scotland.
I was out running errands in Leicester at the weekend. Mask compliance was near universal.
Are there extra rules in place for local lockdown?
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Who cares? They are only masks. Get a grip.
Its funny. In March people were saying 'look its only one month lockdown at home so the NHS doesn;t get overwhelmed.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Who cares? They are only masks. Get a grip.
Its funny. In March people were saying 'look its only one month lockdown at home so the NHS doesn;t get overwhelmed.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Anyone planning a holiday trip to Bradford this year ?
Funny enough I did have a day trip to Bradford in May as I like the place and faniced a walk away from my usual hikes . Used to live there in the late 80s so a bit nostalgic as well
Some people’s irrational obsessive opposition to masks really begs belief.
maybe to you , to most people there needs to be a reason to wear them , not sure any case is being made for them at the moment.
The more people wear them, the more normal activities can be carried out while mitigating the spread of the virus, and the more we can get back to some semblance of normality.
Some people’s irrational obsessive opposition to masks really begs belief.
maybe to you , to most people there needs to be a reason to wear them , not sure any case is being made for them at the moment.
Well even if you are not being irrational you are certainly currently being disingenous - perhaps you disagree with the reasons given and are not persuaded by the case being made, and let us say for sake of argument you are correct in that, but it is certainly true that a case is being made and reasons given.
Not persuaded by the case does not mean no case is being made.
Anecdote report on the Governments food offer. Restaurants and pubs round here are packed
and here as well - cinema had 10 people in for the film when I went a couple of days ago. Hope cinemas survive this too stringent imposition of mask wearing in a couple of days time
It may just be that the cinema, as a venue, is on its way out. Not so long ago, massive flat panel ultra HD TV sets were for the rich, and not so long before that such things did not exist. But the world's moved on, and so have internet streaming services.
Give it another ten years and it's quite possible that the whole sector may have gone the way of VHS video cassettes, rendered obsolete by modern technology.
well that would be a pity and cinema has survived a lot of tech change starting with TV but at least let it be killed by a culture change not a too stringent covid-19 law.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Who cares? They are only masks. Get a grip.
Its funny. In March people were saying 'look its only one month lockdown at home so the NHS doesn;t get overwhelmed.
Why are you making such a fuss?
I recall it quite differently, as the government communication was quite good at the time on the point that restrictions of one type or another might need to be in place for many months at the least. That's why so many of the coronavirus regulations allow for use beyond even this year.
The pubs have been open for a month, so if people getting pissed and breathing over each other were going to cause a tsunami wave of cases (as opposed to isolated instances where groups have behaved like knobs or got very unlucky) then one has to assume that this would've started by now.
That leaves, as the source for this fresh explosion, the holidaymakers. Were there enough of them out in Spain, were there enough cases abroad in the places where most of them were visiting for a sufficiently large number to become infected, and have they then been insufficiently compliant with the demand to quarantine on top of that, for this to trigger off a major new burst of community transmission? You may be right, but colour me sceptical.
I think there's far more to it than that. Certainly in my neck of the woods I've seen the gradual breakdown of social distancing and even mask wearing to the extent I now look unusual wearing my mask in East Ham High Street.
Whether this will lead to a "tsunami" of cases is debatable but if we do get more cases and have to endure a re-tightening of restrictions, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
If that's the case then it's certainly not happening everywhere. My experience round here is that people have given into the mask edict since it came into force and the hospitality establishments appear to be taking their responsibilities seriously. That, coupled with the fact that we're not seeing widespread reports of new clusters all over the country, suggests that real problems are confined to certain localities and that the Government approach of taking a cricket bat to those areas whilst leaving everyone else well alone is currently working.
As always, however, one has to add the caveat that this may not survive the schools going back. A kiddie-related disaster seems to me to be the most likely cause of a blanket reimposition of restrictions. We should have an answer to this puzzle by the end of September, or possibly sooner if things go seriously pear-shaped in Scotland.
I was out running errands in Leicester at the weekend. Mask compliance was near universal.
Are there extra rules in place for local lockdown?
Not supposed to meet in private gardens, gyms etc still closed, thats about it. Not a lockdown in any meaningful way.
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
Do you think there is a trend?
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Cases are rising.
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
6 Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):
On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.
The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
But that's always been the case.
The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
A prediction to remember.
Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Who cares? They are only masks. Get a grip.
Its funny. In March people were saying 'look its only one month lockdown at home so the NHS doesn;t get overwhelmed.
Why are you making such a fuss?
Really? I remember it as being announced that it would be eight or more weeks.
Some people’s irrational obsessive opposition to masks really begs belief.
maybe to you , to most people there needs to be a reason to wear them , not sure any case is being made for them at the moment.
The more people wear them, the more normal activities can be carried out while mitigating the spread of the virus, and the more we can get back to some semblance of normality.
Quite so. Purely as a matter of practicality we should welcome being able to do more things as a result, even if it means putting up with masks.
Comments
When yours truly was a lad, was expected (make that ordered) to get haircut no less than once every other week. There were two barber shops in my small home town. One was a major community center - for men - and you always had to wait. Plenty of conversation, but 99.46% was sports or hunting, both of which bored me sillly.
SO usually went to the 2nd shop, which was way less busy. Never a line that I ever saw. Perhaps because the barber was slightly eccentric (in a small town, not English noble way) AND liked to talk politics. Which I was already finding of interest. AND didn't bother me that this barber was a BIG fan of George Wallace, whereas I was NOT. Was too young to argue with him (at least in that time & place) so I just listened a lot.
Few years later I started rebelling against my Dad's haircut schedule. AND a new avenue opened in the 70s - men having their hair "styled" by women, often in women's beauty shops. Which was WAY more fun than when some guy did it - PLUS you were much less likely to end up looking like a Marine in boot camp.
Finally got to point of semi-superannuation where I decided to stop getting (what was left of) my hair cut at all. And strangely enough, it pretty much stopped growing, or at least getting any longer.
We managed a domestic holiday (4 nights) and a few weekend's with family, but I don't think we'll be doing much else for the rest of the summer or autumn now. We live by the sea, in a house with a garden, and so are absolutely privileged. I really do feel for those who have little outside space or easy (and relatively safe) leisure provision. This is going to be a long old year.
Biden up four in Ohio (48-44) - a state Trump won by eight last time.
Trump up 11 in Montana (53-42),a state he won by 21 (57-36) last time so once again a swing of 5-6% and this is something we are seeing in the State polls - not universally, not consistently but a general 5-6% swing away from Trump to Biden.
Better news for Trump from the daily Rasmussen Presidential approval poll which was Trump back to +4 (51-47).
I don't include Scotland
Whether this will lead to a "tsunami" of cases is debatable but if we do get more cases and have to endure a re-tightening of restrictions, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
May come back in Sept if the UK government has not stopped me.
What do you think of this?
"If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win
Anyway, Scotland has told those of us in the pox zone to feck off.
I don't think the 2019 tactic of standing down for each other helped much in reality.
The problem is that people aren't very good at slowly removing restrictions. It's a binary world out there where either its too dangerous to go out, or it's beer pong time.
So no, not at the moment.
As always, however, one has to add the caveat that this may not survive the schools going back. A kiddie-related disaster seems to me to be the most likely cause of a blanket reimposition of restrictions. We should have an answer to this puzzle by the end of September, or possibly sooner if things go seriously pear-shaped in Scotland.
It is possible though (and as has happened in a number of historic and contemporary cases) that being named may bring out a lot of similar #metoo victims.
The clubbing trip to Ibiza is off this year.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290264681957924864?s=09
They do need to reopen though. Some kids are beginning to go rather feral around here
What is not debatable is that many people, possibly millions, are going to lose everything they have because of the measures being taken to avoid the scenaro you sketch out.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from the severe economic hardship that is a direct cause of those measures.
What is also not debatable is that many people will die from undiagnosed diseases because of the terror causes by the government's propaganda on COVID and the authorities' obsession with it,
These aren't debatable. They are certain.
Who write these algorithms?
I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.
I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.
The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
Another way of looking at it is the economy is going to be f*ed either way given people are not going back to the old ways, so that being the case why not save as many lives as possible?
Should local measures therefore fail to contain a resurgence of this disease then that constitutes a good argument for segmentation - instructing these groups to go back into some form of lockdown and letting the remainder of the population just get on with it. Which is, of course, precisely the scenario that the Government is reported to have war-gamed. It has denied doing it of course, because the grey vote would wail about the unfairness of it all bitterly, loudly and continuously were it to come to pass - but it has a great deal more sense to it than regressing all the way back to April.
Indeed, whilst I can see some blanket tightening of restrictions being possible, a wholesale return to national lockdown ain't happening. The fact that we are unable to afford it can't simply be airily waved away.
Though, of course, locking up the olds isn't the only weapon that the Government might consider deploying to keep the dreaded R number under one. If the evidence from Scotland suggests that the primary school kids aren't causing a serious problem but the older ones are, then I can see the former staying in classrooms but the latter ending up back on Zoom again. Closing hospitality back down and creating several million additional unemployed in order to provide the breathing room to keep all the schools open isn't a thing to be taken lightly, either.
Interesting to see how it affects trade later in the week and over the weekend.
Give it another ten years and it's quite possible that the whole sector may have gone the way of VHS video cassettes, rendered obsolete by modern technology.
Oh wait. No they're not.
Sweden's PMIs are worse than ours, and are still sub-50. Unemployment there is also continuing to rise. Consumer spending is also still below pre-CV19 levels while ours has bounced back.
If people don't feel safe, they don't go out. You get de facto, rather than de jure lockdowns. And this lasts a long time, because the viral incidence doesn't really go away.
If you remove the lockdown in the UK now, you get a month or six weeks of everyone saying "Whoopee!" and then you get a de facto lockdown, as cases skyrocket and people stay home.
We had a perfect opportunity to slowly remove restrictions. But - sadly - with things like stupidly opening up to Spanish tourism, we've blown it.
I don't include Scotland
No plans to do so. We were toying with France, but Covid has flared up again there, so we'll stay put I reckon.
I've been very fortunate in how much of the globe I have seen, so a year or two in the UK is no hardship.
Unfortunately I’m shielding for the next two weeks, so I’m missing out on juicy half price Spoons and Nandos.
Ummm no
not remotely accurate from my experience.
Young (30's) friends who used to spent 3 or 4 nights in pub each week not going out at all.
Very rich friends (40s) who travel extensively don't leave the house at all any more, everything done on internet shopping.
You're world is very very different to the one I observe.
I flew out of Manchester airport on Friday, it was a ghost town, not because the old and vulnerable are scared, but because a huge part of the population is scared and won't re-ignite the economy until they are vaccinated.
Your starting premise is totally wrong from my observations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C8nl8eBoq0
But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
Chatted to the restaurant owner who we know and he said they had enough tables to run at 120% of normal capacity because of outdoor seating, the August weather has been a godsend and with a good forecast until the end of the month he thinks that they may be able to turn a profit. Monday to Wednesday bookings this week are almost at capacity and Thursday to Sunday at around half, he hopes that as people start to come out because of the chancellor's scheme they will become more confident.
On cleaning measures - all staff were in masks and they had a COVID instruction leaflet which was well done and it gave a rundown of how to do things and what other precautions are being taken. One good example was that they requested for one person per group to do all of the ordering with the waitress and for that person to be wearing a mask while doing the ordering. Masks to be worn when walking to the table and at all times when not at the table (going to the bathroom).
Overall it was a good experience, I didn't find the COVID measures impacted on dinner at all other than putting the mask on to do the ordering for a group of six indecisive people.
I'm really hoping that the summer will help restaurants and pubs, but I'm worried that once all of the outdoor seating areas are no longer worthwhile due to rain/cold it's going to be very tough. The owner of this place said their only hope is a vaccine programme before the end of the year or he's going to be out of business without government help to keep the lights on and staff in jobs.
Meant to be worn on public transport but a significant minority are not.
No need to wear anywhere else and no one is.
Now I'm sure some will have been but they should already be showing in the numbers.
Whether the government should have got everyone's hopes up is another question. It was probably always likely to end up like this, but the government was under pressure to try to get things back to normal.
But if you want to see some proper research, feel free to read the following:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20128181v1
I'm sure that the genteel folk of Ilkley are overjoyed to be tarred by the same brush as urban Bradford.
Just saying.
Later peeps
Why are you making such a fuss?
Instead they got the privilege of subsidising Bradford.
And I use chrome on a brand new Samsung S5Etablet
Not persuaded by the case does not mean no case is being made.
Perhaps Katie Hopkins might give a more relevant answer
well that would be a pity and cinema has survived a lot of tech change starting with TV but at least let it be killed by a culture change not a too stringent covid-19 law.
It doesn’t matter if you don’t like them. I don’t like them one bit, but tough.