Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium finds a net 13% drop in two weeks in government’s “Cor

124»

Comments

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,314
    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

    The rules are different in Wales you know?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224

    Some people’s irrational obsessive opposition to masks really begs belief.

    maybe to you , to most people there needs to be a reason to wear them , not sure any case is being made for them at the moment.
    It’s not the masks, it’s people’s behaviour when wearing a mask. Face touching, over confidence no social distancing. Watch people in shops, masks make them think they are invincible. Social distancing and hand washing had massively reduced Covid. On the 24th July in Southampton there was 1.19 cases per 100,000. That to me suggested that the Covid reduction procedures had worked. Now we have a new dynamic with the enforced mask wearing. I have failed to see any evidence from around the world of enforced public mask wearing working.

    The WHO was always worried about their use and rightly so
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 9,709
    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482

    Some people’s irrational obsessive opposition to masks really begs belief.

    maybe to you , to most people there needs to be a reason to wear them , not sure any case is being made for them at the moment.
    It’s not the masks, it’s people’s behaviour when wearing a mask. Face touching, over confidence no social distancing. Watch people in shops, masks make them think they are invincible. Social distancing and hand washing had massively reduced Covid. On the 24th July in Southampton there was 1.19 cases per 100,000. That to me suggested that the Covid reduction procedures had worked. Now we have a new dynamic with the enforced mask wearing. I have failed to see any evidence from around the world of enforced public mask wearing working.

    The WHO was always worried about their use and rightly so
    Sensible stuff ! Not sure why many on here are so flippant and arrogant in their dismissiveness of any argument against enforced mask wearing
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,011
    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

    The rules are different in Wales you know?
    Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    edited August 3
    Andy_JS said:

    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

    The rules are different in Wales you know?
    Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?
    I dont think so despite it being beyond bonkers to some on here to even think about not having mass enforcement of the things. Maybe the virus cannot spread in Welsh shops or maybe just maybe Wales have a far more sensible policy than England has
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,314
    Andy_JS said:

    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

    The rules are different in Wales you know?
    Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?
    Nope. Optional.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,315

    Toms said:

    I still cannot sign into the ordinary site. I use Chrome with Windows 10 on a very hunky tower PC.
    Just saying.

    Neither can I

    And I use chrome on a brand new Samsung S5Etablet

    You are too advanced for your own good. It doesn't work on my s5e either (great tablet) but works fine on my old A2 running android 7.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,011

    Anecdote report on the Governments food offer. Restaurants and pubs round here are packed

    Same along the Welsh coast this evening. Difficult to find anywhere that isn't already full.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,651
    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,606

    Anecdote report on the Governments food offer. Restaurants and pubs round here are packed

    and here as well - cinema had 10 people in for the film when I went a couple of days ago. Hope cinemas survive this too stringent imposition of mask wearing in a couple of days time
    Drive in cinema outside was full up when I went 2 weeks ago
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224
    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

    The rules are different in Wales you know?
    Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?
    Nope. Optional.
    The Welsh CMO is very sceptical about them.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    HYUFD said:

    Anecdote report on the Governments food offer. Restaurants and pubs round here are packed

    and here as well - cinema had 10 people in for the film when I went a couple of days ago. Hope cinemas survive this too stringent imposition of mask wearing in a couple of days time
    Drive in cinema outside was full up when I went 2 weeks ago
    Which is good in one way but also hope sit - in ones get an opportunity to stay in business - ie not wearign masks in them
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 35,627
    edited August 3
    PeterC said:

    Toms said:

    I still cannot sign into the ordinary site. I use Chrome with Windows 10 on a very hunky tower PC.
    Just saying.

    Neither can I

    And I use chrome on a brand new Samsung S5Etablet

    Have you tried Firefox with Windows 10? It works fine for me.
    Thanks I am OK on my windows laptop, just not my new samsung tablet, nor the old one
    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

    The rules are different in Wales you know?
    Only required on public transport and in hospitals here in Wales
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 35,627
    Andy_JS said:

    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

    The rules are different in Wales you know?
    Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?
    No
  • flizzyflizzy Posts: 4
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    England case numbers -

    image

    Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
    Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

    The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
    Do you think there is a trend?

    If so is it down, flat or rising?
    Cases are rising.

    Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
    6
    Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

    On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/
    The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
    But that's always been the case.

    The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
    A prediction to remember.
    Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
    The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.

    But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
    Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?

    Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
    Who cares? They are only masks. Get a grip.
    Its funny. In March people were saying 'look its only one month lockdown at home so the NHS doesn;t get overwhelmed.

    Why are you making such a fuss?
    Really? I remember it as being announced that it would be eight or more weeks.
    Wait, if masks have to be worn all the time while outside in Spain, surely it'll be easy to tell who's come back from Spain and not quarantined just from the tan-lines?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,011
    edited August 3

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    I wonder whether Sunak's 50% off meals might be dropped as well if too many people avail themselves of it.

    Reminds me of this.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoover_free_flights_promotion
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,228
    Latest Electoral Calculus prediction by Martin Baxter:

    Con 340, Lab 223, SNP 58, Lib Dem 6
    Conservative majority of 30 seats

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,901
    Ave_it said:

    Anyone going abroad this year?

    I don't include Scotland

    France for a couple of weeks in September provided it is still legal to do so.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Andy_JS said:

    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

    The rules are different in Wales you know?
    Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?
    No
    What about in pubs in Wales?
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 35,627
    Ave_it said:

    Andy_JS said:

    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.

    The rules are different in Wales you know?
    Are masks not supposed to be worn in shops in Wales?
    No
    What about in pubs in Wales?
    Not as far as I am aware
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,302
    Rishi-in-a-Dishy

    I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

    At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,302
    ukpaul said:

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.
    That has more the feel of fantaloons of The Times in a backside-covering strategy.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 9,709

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,901

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    England case numbers -

    image

    Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
    Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

    The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
    Do you think there is a trend?

    If so is it down, flat or rising?
    Cases are rising.

    Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
    6
    Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

    On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/
    The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
    But that's always been the case.

    The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
    A prediction to remember.
    Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
    The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.

    But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
    Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?

    Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
    How many times do you need to be told by people living in Spain that the increases have primarily come about in non-mask wearing situations such as night clubs? Do you seriously not listen or is that you just prefer to keep spreading misinformation to further your agenda?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    ukpaul said:

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.
    No they are goign to let over 50s assess their own risk which is more sensible that the orginal plan (if there really was one so draconian and nannying)
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    MattW said:

    ukpaul said:

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.
    That has more the feel of fantaloons of The Times in a backside-covering strategy.
    Okay, I'm lost. What on earth is a fantaloon?!?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,731

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    Wasn't the over 50s plan something that was "war gamed" - not a serious proposal they wanted to implement?

    Nuclear war gets war gamed too. Fighting China in the Taiwan Strait gets war gamed. Doesn't mean we want that to happen. The media shouldn't run off with every war game as if that's what is actually going to happen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 35,627
    MattW said:

    Rishi-in-a-Dishy

    I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

    At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

    Alcohol is excluded from the deal
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,901
    Andy_JS said:

    In North Wales today was surprised to find fewer people complying with wearing masks than in England, the opposite of what I was expecting.


    It's not a requirement to wear masks in shops in Wales yet
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,302
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    England case numbers -

    image

    Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
    Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

    The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
    Do you think there is a trend?

    If so is it down, flat or rising?
    Cases are rising.

    Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
    6
    Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

    On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/
    The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
    But that's always been the case.

    The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
    A prediction to remember.
    Is the prediction due to mask wearing in shops ?
    The prediction is due to tens of thousands of Brits returning from Spain (where they probably haven't been doing much social distancing) combined with the reopening of pubs, and a general increase in the amount of socialising going on.

    But if you want to blame masks, go for it.
    Is that the same Spain where masks have to be worn all the time when outside?

    Is there anywhere in the world where mask wearing is being enforced that is showing a current reduction in cases ?
    The main infection vector in Spain was bars and nightclubs among young people where there aren't any rules about mask wearing. Your crusade against masks is very odd.
    Why would people get CV19 from nightclubs and bars, when they could get it outside from mask wearing?
    Why would people get CV19 outside from mask wearing?

    ( I may have missed an ironic conversation)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,101

    MattW said:

    Rishi-in-a-Dishy

    I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

    At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

    Alcohol is excluded from the deal
    You can still reinvest your food saving on better plonk, which appears to be the OP’s intention.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    IanB2 said:

    MattW said:

    Rishi-in-a-Dishy

    I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

    At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

    Alcohol is excluded from the deal
    You can still reinvest your food saving on better plonk, which appears to be the OP’s intention.
    Good strategy!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 35,627
    IanB2 said:

    MattW said:

    Rishi-in-a-Dishy

    I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

    At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

    Alcohol is excluded from the deal
    You can still reinvest your food saving on better plonk, which appears to be the OP’s intention.
    Fair comment
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,082
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    England case numbers -

    image

    Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
    Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

    The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
    Do you think there is a trend?

    If so is it down, flat or rising?
    Cases are rising.

    Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
    Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

    On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/
    The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
    But that's always been the case.

    The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
    A prediction to remember.
    Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
    I don't recall any media reports of such people being infected though.

    Now I'm sure some will have been but they should already be showing in the numbers.
    In reality the government isn't that bothered about those coming back now - though I think they should quarantine for the safety of people they know - but they are bothered about the potential for it to get really bad in Spain over the next month or so.

    Whether the government should have got everyone's hopes up is another question. It was probably always likely to end up like this, but the government was under pressure to try to get things back to normal.
    Encouraging foreign holidays was imbecilic.

    Even without the infection risk it was detrimental to the UK economy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,101

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    Unless the government is in even more flip flopping chaos than it so far appears, it’s possible this was another ‘steal the headlines’ plot to get people to take the rest of the announcements more seriously, along the same lines as the briefly floated-then-denied sealing off of London back in March.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,651

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    Wasn't the over 50s plan something that was "war gamed" - not a serious proposal they wanted to implement?

    Nuclear war gets war gamed too. Fighting China in the Taiwan Strait gets war gamed. Doesn't mean we want that to happen. The media shouldn't run off with every war game as if that's what is actually going to happen.
    I think you are right. But someone made a total hash of the media briefing. Or, as I think the Spectator is pointing out, someone who wanted the plan dead before it even left the wargaming table was doing the briefing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,101
    MattW said:

    Rishi-in-a-Dishy

    I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

    At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

    The slope of that horizon suggests a photo taken coming out, rather than going in?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    England case numbers -

    image

    Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
    Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

    The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
    Do you think there is a trend?

    If so is it down, flat or rising?
    Cases are rising.

    Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
    Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

    On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/
    The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
    But that's always been the case.

    The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
    A prediction to remember.
    Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
    I don't recall any media reports of such people being infected though.

    Now I'm sure some will have been but they should already be showing in the numbers.
    In reality the government isn't that bothered about those coming back now - though I think they should quarantine for the safety of people they know - but they are bothered about the potential for it to get really bad in Spain over the next month or so.

    Whether the government should have got everyone's hopes up is another question. It was probably always likely to end up like this, but the government was under pressure to try to get things back to normal.
    Encouraging foreign holidays was imbecilic.

    Even without the infection risk it was detrimental to the UK economy.
    Not sure BA or Easyjet or Heathrow would agree with that. Anyway its not up to government to encourage or discourage foreign travel (especially when the places they announced having no quarantine had no more cases than ourselves) Do we really want a govenment that nannies all activites of adults?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,302
    edited August 3

    stodge said:

    I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

    What do you think of this?


    "If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

    I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

    I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

    I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

    The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
    "correct on most things"

    LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
    I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

    If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

    The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    ukpaul said:

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.
    No they are goign to let over 50s assess their own risk which is more sensible that the orginal plan (if there really was one so draconian and nannying)
    'Excuse me Mr employer, I have a heart condition, can I shield please?'

    'Eff off, come into work with it or you're sacked. Oh, and if you wear a mask we'll sack you as well'.

    It needs something official not using this supposed 'common sense'.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,082
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    The pubs have been open for a month, so if people getting pissed and breathing over each other were going to cause a tsunami wave of cases (as opposed to isolated instances where groups have behaved like knobs or got very unlucky) then one has to assume that this would've started by now.

    That leaves, as the source for this fresh explosion, the holidaymakers. Were there enough of them out in Spain, were there enough cases abroad in the places where most of them were visiting for a sufficiently large number to become infected, and have they then been insufficiently compliant with the demand to quarantine on top of that, for this to trigger off a major new burst of community transmission? You may be right, but colour me sceptical.

    I think there's far more to it than that. Certainly in my neck of the woods I've seen the gradual breakdown of social distancing and even mask wearing to the extent I now look unusual wearing my mask in East Ham High Street.

    Whether this will lead to a "tsunami" of cases is debatable but if we do get more cases and have to endure a re-tightening of restrictions, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
    If that's the case then it's certainly not happening everywhere. My experience round here is that people have given into the mask edict since it came into force and the hospitality establishments appear to be taking their responsibilities seriously. That, coupled with the fact that we're not seeing widespread reports of new clusters all over the country, suggests that real problems are confined to certain localities and that the Government approach of taking a cricket bat to those areas whilst leaving everyone else well alone is currently working.

    As always, however, one has to add the caveat that this may not survive the schools going back. A kiddie-related disaster seems to me to be the most likely cause of a blanket reimposition of restrictions. We should have an answer to this puzzle by the end of September, or possibly sooner if things go seriously pear-shaped in Scotland.
    I was out running errands in Leicester at the weekend. Mask compliance was near universal.
    Are there extra rules in place for local lockdown?
    Not supposed to meet in private gardens, gyms etc still closed, thats about it. Not a lockdown in any meaningful way.
    The restrictions in place in Melbourne are much harder than what the UK had in the spring.

    I suspect the softness of the UK lockdown is a main reason why many people are in no hurry for it to be eased.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,731
    Andy_JS said:

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    I wonder whether Sunak's 50% off meals might be dropped as well if too many people avail themselves of it.

    Reminds me of this.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoover_free_flights_promotion
    The idea was surely to rebuild confidence in people to get out and go to restaurants. If people have good half price meals and feel confident through August then in September they're not going to return to cowering at home with microwave meals on the sofa.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

    What do you think of this?


    "If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

    I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

    I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

    I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

    The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
    "correct on most things"

    LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
    I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

    If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

    The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.
    If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,583
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why doesn't a brave journalist just name him?
    Ask Katie Holmes :-)
    Whilst I'm sure that Katie Holmes has a valuable opinion.

    Perhaps Katie Hopkins might give a more relevant answer :blush:
    Sally Bercow is the one that immediately springs to mind with these things, and that was a ‘nudge-nudge’ rather than a direct outing of someone.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,082
    There's an impressive moon tonight - low down in the east.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,302

    Andy_JS said:

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    I wonder whether Sunak's 50% off meals might be dropped as well if too many people avail themselves of it.

    Reminds me of this.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoover_free_flights_promotion
    The idea was surely to rebuild confidence in people to get out and go to restaurants. If people have good half price meals and feel confident through August then in September they're not going to return to cowering at home with microwave meals on the sofa.
    I think 12 or 13 days more smacks of an effective cap.

    I'm half thinking this could be a masterstroke in cost-benefit terms.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,082

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    England case numbers -

    image

    Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?
    Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.

    The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
    Do you think there is a trend?

    If so is it down, flat or rising?
    Cases are rising.

    Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
    Cases in England are not rising, at least not if this explanation from a reputable source is to be believed (extract edited slightly for sense without the accompanying graphs):

    On first glance it looks like the number of cases in Pillar 2 is trending up and Pillar 1 is trending down... However, what happens if you adjust for any change in testing over time? On the 1st of July – the seven day moving average of testing was 41,109 for Pillar 1 and 43,161 in Pillar 2. By the 31st July, the Pillar 1 seven day average for testing had increased to 49,543 (a 20% increase,) while the Pillar 2 had risen by much more – by 82% to 78,522 tests... When you adjust for the number of tests done and then standardise to per 100,000 tests, Pillar 1 is seen to be still trending down, but Pillar 2 is now flatlining. The increase in the number of cases detected, therefore, could be due to the increase in testing in Pillar 2.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/
    The numbers we see today are - of course - from people who got infected two weeks ago. Given (a) people coming back from holiday in Spain, and (b) less social distancing, it would be very surprising if the actual number of people with CV19 was significantly higher than current positive tests suggest.
    But that's always been the case.

    The question is whether the ratio of actual number infected to known about number infected increasing or decreasing.
    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
    A prediction to remember.
    Don't forget we've had lots of people coming back from Spain, and very few of them will have socially distanced there.
    I don't recall any media reports of such people being infected though.

    Now I'm sure some will have been but they should already be showing in the numbers.
    In reality the government isn't that bothered about those coming back now - though I think they should quarantine for the safety of people they know - but they are bothered about the potential for it to get really bad in Spain over the next month or so.

    Whether the government should have got everyone's hopes up is another question. It was probably always likely to end up like this, but the government was under pressure to try to get things back to normal.
    Encouraging foreign holidays was imbecilic.

    Even without the infection risk it was detrimental to the UK economy.
    Not sure BA or Easyjet or Heathrow would agree with that. Anyway its not up to government to encourage or discourage foreign travel (especially when the places they announced having no quarantine had no more cases than ourselves) Do we really want a govenment that nannies all activites of adults?
    BA, Easyjet and Heathrow are not the UK economy.

    Encouraging people to spend their money in another country when the UK economy, in particular the leisure and hospitality sectors, is in such trouble was detrimental.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,365
    IanB2 said:

    MattW said:

    Rishi-in-a-Dishy

    I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

    At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

    Alcohol is excluded from the deal
    You can still reinvest your food saving on better plonk, which appears to be the OP’s intention.
    That's basically what we did today, got an extra couple of bottles of wine and pretty good stuff too. Our per person cost actually worked out about the same as usual in the end but we had some decent wine and I think everyone was happy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,302
    edited August 3
    IanB2 said:

    MattW said:

    Rishi-in-a-Dishy

    I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

    At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

    The slope of that horizon suggests a photo taken coming out, rather than going in?
    LOL !

    It was taken when the sun prevented anything whatsoever being seen on the display :-))) . Anyhoo - in Notts we have hills, so I'm allowed.

    And I was shopping for cookware not food, so drink had not yet been taken. Since chopsticks were among the purchases, too much drink will make the eating ineffective.

    Just you wait for the slope on my Bilberry foraging photos.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.
    No they are goign to let over 50s assess their own risk which is more sensible that the orginal plan (if there really was one so draconian and nannying)
    'Excuse me Mr employer, I have a heart condition, can I shield please?'

    'Eff off, come into work with it or you're sacked. Oh, and if you wear a mask we'll sack you as well'.

    It needs something official not using this supposed 'common sense'.
    yes because we all agree the top brass of the tory party are so super at running the countyr we shoudl outsource all decisions of how to live your life to them. It is worrying to me the level that some people in this time want the government to tell them what to do all the time
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,731
    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.
    No they are goign to let over 50s assess their own risk which is more sensible that the orginal plan (if there really was one so draconian and nannying)
    'Excuse me Mr employer, I have a heart condition, can I shield please?'

    'Eff off, come into work with it or you're sacked. Oh, and if you wear a mask we'll sack you as well'.

    It needs something official not using this supposed 'common sense'.
    No, it needs common sense.

    Employers will do what they can but there has to be limits. If someone has to shield but can work from home why would the employer say no? If someone has to shield for 12 months and can't or won't work then why should the employer pay them? The government should pay them in that case.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,651

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

    What do you think of this?


    "If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

    I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

    I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

    I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

    The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
    "correct on most things"

    LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
    I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

    If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

    The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.
    If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.
    "The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour"

    Source please?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,302

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    Suspect the elegant lady does not eat too many of those...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

    What do you think of this?


    "If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

    I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

    I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

    I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

    The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
    "correct on most things"

    LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
    I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

    If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

    The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.
    If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.
    "The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour"

    Source please?
    I didnt say that somebody else did
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    Over 50s plan dropped apparently.

    That lasted all of 24 hours. Totally bonkers from the start.

    So they are going to risk the health and lives of those of us in their fifties? No way. I’m not going to be forced to be in danger just because of a lot of mouthy idiots who think they’re invincible. Sending over fifties into a situation that can easily maim or even kill them is just asking for trouble.
    No they are goign to let over 50s assess their own risk which is more sensible that the orginal plan (if there really was one so draconian and nannying)
    'Excuse me Mr employer, I have a heart condition, can I shield please?'

    'Eff off, come into work with it or you're sacked. Oh, and if you wear a mask we'll sack you as well'.

    It needs something official not using this supposed 'common sense'.
    yes because we all agree the top brass of the tory party are so super at running the countyr we shoudl outsource all decisions of how to live your life to them. It is worrying to me the level that some people in this time want the government to tell them what to do all the time
    It's not down to the government, the decisions would be made by the NHS. I wouldn't trust government to do it, no, because it needs people who actually know what they are doing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,101

    There's an impressive moon tonight - low down in the east.

    Full moon tomorrow
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,970
    Christ, IDS is even stupider than I thought.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,315

    There's an impressive moon tonight - low down in the east.

    Fantastic. And Saturn and Jupiter up a bit and right a bit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    You very selectively quoted the WHO before. In fact, you stopped before the key part. Either you were ignorant, and should apologise, or were deliberately trying to be misleading.

    Which is it?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,302
    edited August 3

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

    What do you think of this?


    "If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

    I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

    I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

    I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

    The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
    "correct on most things"

    LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
    I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

    If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

    The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.
    If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.
    "The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour"

    Source please?
    You'll first of all note that I put an "imo" on that. Given that neither of us runs the site, that matters.

    I would point you to the some of the commentary from well before Corbyn and Lab's public problems.

    eg https://antisemitism.uk/politics/greens/

    Also longstanding links to BDS and similar campaigns, where the Country of Israel / Religion of Judaism distinction has been thoroughly blurred.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,530

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    We got it down with unprecedented social distancing, i.e. everyone staying in their house. You don't need a mask if you don't go near anyone. As for the recommendation only being recent, I think that's a supply/demand thing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,302
    IshmaelZ said:

    There's an impressive moon tonight - low down in the east.

    Fantastic. And Saturn and Jupiter up a bit and right a bit.
    I think we are due the Perseid (sp?) Meteorites soon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    For the record, this was Dr Ryan of the WHO:

    "There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly,"

    Which sounds like masks might not be a good idea.

    But let's see how Dr Ryan continued:

    "There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

    So?

    Was he really saying masks don't work (or might *cause* CV-19, a @NerysHughes view)... or was he saying that due to shortages, that masks stocks should be reserved for frontline workers.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, this was Dr Ryan of the WHO:

    "There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly,"

    Which sounds like masks might not be a good idea.

    But let's see how Dr Ryan continued:

    "There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

    So?

    Was he really saying masks don't work (or might *cause* CV-19, a @NerysHughes view)... or was he saying that due to shortages, that masks stocks should be reserved for frontline workers.

    both it seems?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,082
    IshmaelZ said:

    There's an impressive moon tonight - low down in the east.

    Fantastic. And Saturn and Jupiter up a bit and right a bit.
    I noticed them without knowing it was them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, this was Dr Ryan of the WHO:

    "There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly,"

    Which sounds like masks might not be a good idea.

    But let's see how Dr Ryan continued:

    "There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

    So?

    Was he really saying masks don't work (or might *cause* CV-19, a @NerysHughes view)... or was he saying that due to shortages, that masks stocks should be reserved for frontline workers.

    both it seems?
    The thought of [front line workers] not having masks is horrific

    Doesn't exactly suggest he thinks they are worthless.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,101
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    MattW said:

    Rishi-in-a-Dishy

    I'm doing 2 tomorrow and Wed at local pub lunch places, and will spend the £10 extra on either a pricier dish or shuffle it to a bottle of wine.

    At the East Midlands McArthur Glen this afternoon - really quite busy.

    The slope of that horizon suggests a photo taken coming out, rather than going in?
    LOL !

    It was taken when the sun prevented anything whatsoever being seen on the display :-))) . Anyhoo - in Notts we have hills, so I'm allowed.

    And I was shopping for cookware not food, so drink had not yet been taken. Since chopsticks were among the purchases, too much drink will make the eating ineffective.

    Just you wait for the slope on my Bilberry foraging photos.
    I was just hoping everybody remembered the hand brake.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,639
    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There's an impressive moon tonight - low down in the east.

    Fantastic. And Saturn and Jupiter up a bit and right a bit.
    I think we are due the Perseid (sp?) Meteorites soon.
    12th - 13th and a waning moon so if the skies are clear there should be a great view. Possibility of warm nights too, to make viewing more pleasant.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224
    RobD said:

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    We got it down with unprecedented social distancing, i.e. everyone staying in their house. You don't need a mask if you don't go near anyone. As for the recommendation only being recent, I think that's a supply/demand thing.
    Do you really think that the WHO bases scientific advice on supply and demand. If mask wearing was good in March they would have said so. It’s not that hard to make your own face covering. They would have told people to do that. What they knew is that people who are not trained to wear masks, that’s right there is courses onit, would not wear them correctly and they would do more harm than good. It was only political pressure that changed this view.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,530

    RobD said:

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    We got it down with unprecedented social distancing, i.e. everyone staying in their house. You don't need a mask if you don't go near anyone. As for the recommendation only being recent, I think that's a supply/demand thing.
    Do you really think that the WHO bases scientific advice on supply and demand. If mask wearing was good in March they would have said so. It’s not that hard to make your own face covering. They would have told people to do that. What they knew is that people who are not trained to wear masks, that’s right there is courses onit, would not wear them correctly and they would do more harm than good. It was only political pressure that changed this view.
    In fact that's exactly what they said. See @rcs1000's post.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, this was Dr Ryan of the WHO:

    "There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly,"

    Which sounds like masks might not be a good idea.

    But let's see how Dr Ryan continued:

    "There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

    So?

    Was he really saying masks don't work (or might *cause* CV-19, a @NerysHughes view)... or was he saying that due to shortages, that masks stocks should be reserved for frontline workers.

    both it seems?
    The thought of [front line workers] not having masks is horrific

    Doesn't exactly suggest he thinks they are worthless.
    Well the first bit does (for the general public)
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224
    Ty
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    We got it down with unprecedented social distancing, i.e. everyone staying in their house. You don't need a mask if you don't go near anyone. As for the recommendation only being recent, I think that's a supply/demand thing.
    Do you really think that the WHO bases scientific advice on supply and demand. If mask wearing was good in March they would have said so. It’s not that hard to make your own face covering. They would have told people to do that. What they knew is that people who are not trained to wear masks, that’s right there is courses onit, would not wear them correctly and they would do more harm than good. It was only political pressure that changed this view.
    In fact that's exactly what they said. See @rcs1000's post.
    The bit where he said mask wearing by the general public would be detrimental? We have got to get away from the idea that what a surgeon may wear in hospital as a mask is in anyway similar to what people now wear shopping. A surgeon wears a face fitted mask. There is a day course on how to both fit and then wear them. They cannot have any facial hair and the mask has an airtight sill. We wear similar masks when we work in very dusty areas or near asbestos. It is like comparing Andy Murray with cliff richard. Both are tennis players but one is in a completely different league to the other. It’s the same with masks. Now if everyone wore a face fitted mask and wore it correctly then I would agree that they would help reduce virus transmission. But that is as likely as cliff Richard winning Wimbledon.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,530

    Ty

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    We got it down with unprecedented social distancing, i.e. everyone staying in their house. You don't need a mask if you don't go near anyone. As for the recommendation only being recent, I think that's a supply/demand thing.
    Do you really think that the WHO bases scientific advice on supply and demand. If mask wearing was good in March they would have said so. It’s not that hard to make your own face covering. They would have told people to do that. What they knew is that people who are not trained to wear masks, that’s right there is courses onit, would not wear them correctly and they would do more harm than good. It was only political pressure that changed this view.
    In fact that's exactly what they said. See @rcs1000's post.
    The bit where he said mask wearing by the general public would be detrimental? We have got to get away from the idea that what a surgeon may wear in hospital as a mask is in anyway similar to what people now wear shopping. A surgeon wears a face fitted mask. There is a day course on how to both fit and then wear them. They cannot have any facial hair and the mask has an airtight sill. We wear similar masks when we work in very dusty areas or near asbestos. It is like comparing Andy Murray with cliff richard. Both are tennis players but one is in a completely different league to the other. It’s the same with masks. Now if everyone wore a face fitted mask and wore it correctly then I would agree that they would help reduce virus transmission. But that is as likely as cliff Richard winning Wimbledon.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/
    No, the bit where he said there was a global shortage. The quote is in rcs1000's post.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224
    The simple fact is that people are now wearing ineffective cloth masks and feel invincible so have stopped social distancing. Just go to a supermarket and watch. All the one way systems-have been removed, there is no crowd control or queueing outside. Everyone is let in no matter how busy they are just because they are wearing cloth masks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,011
    edited August 3
    It seems like in pubs the staff are wearing masks and the customers aren't, and in most shops it's the other way round. Not sure what the logic of that is.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224
    RobD said:

    Ty

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    We got it down with unprecedented social distancing, i.e. everyone staying in their house. You don't need a mask if you don't go near anyone. As for the recommendation only being recent, I think that's a supply/demand thing.
    Do you really think that the WHO bases scientific advice on supply and demand. If mask wearing was good in March they would have said so. It’s not that hard to make your own face covering. They would have told people to do that. What they knew is that people who are not trained to wear masks, that’s right there is courses onit, would not wear them correctly and they would do more harm than good. It was only political pressure that changed this view.
    In fact that's exactly what they said. See @rcs1000's post.
    The bit where he said mask wearing by the general public would be detrimental? We have got to get away from the idea that what a surgeon may wear in hospital as a mask is in anyway similar to what people now wear shopping. A surgeon wears a face fitted mask. There is a day course on how to both fit and then wear them. They cannot have any facial hair and the mask has an airtight sill. We wear similar masks when we work in very dusty areas or near asbestos. It is like comparing Andy Murray with cliff richard. Both are tennis players but one is in a completely different league to the other. It’s the same with masks. Now if everyone wore a face fitted mask and wore it correctly then I would agree that they would help reduce virus transmission. But that is as likely as cliff Richard winning Wimbledon.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/
    No, the bit where he said there was a global shortage. The quote is in rcs1000's post.
    Do you think the masks that people are wearing in shops are the same as masks worn by frontline workers ?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,020
    Andy_JS said:

    It seems like in pubs the staff are wearing masks and the customers aren't, and in most shops it's the other way round. Not sure what the logic of that is.

    If there's any logic, the pubs have it the right way around.

    But given that there is more loud talking in pubs, everyone should be wearing a mask while not actively in the process of eating or drinking.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    Just watched some proper 1970's/80's cops show intros to cheer me up in this ridiculous year . Can you imagine Huggy Bear or Magnum PI wearing a facemask ? No !
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,482
    TimT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It seems like in pubs the staff are wearing masks and the customers aren't, and in most shops it's the other way round. Not sure what the logic of that is.

    If there's any logic, the pubs have it the right way around.

    But given that there is more loud talking in pubs, everyone should be wearing a mask while not actively in the process of eating or drinking.
    The whole point of pubs is to have some fun
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,011
    "'All this for a tenner!'
    Food lovers share the incredible deals they've found on the first day of Rishi's 50% off scheme including £2.29 for a Big Mac meal and £3.50 for a Tesco fry up"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8588283/Food-lovers-share-Eat-Help-deals-day.html
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,020

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, this was Dr Ryan of the WHO:

    "There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly,"

    Which sounds like masks might not be a good idea.

    But let's see how Dr Ryan continued:

    "There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

    So?

    Was he really saying masks don't work (or might *cause* CV-19, a @NerysHughes view)... or was he saying that due to shortages, that masks stocks should be reserved for frontline workers.

    both it seems?
    Once again, you have to view the comments of Ryan in the context of the mindset of mask-wearing prior to COVID and who wore them up to that point.

    Primarily masks were worn by healthcare workers to protect the patient from infection (infection control), and by laboratory workers to protect them from infection (biosafety). The aim in both cases is 100% efficiency, hence training in mask fitting and so on and the warnings about the public getting a false sense of security through wearing masks improperly.

    None of the research on masks up to that point had been on their effectiveness in managing a pandemic when used by the public, and none of the research had looked at the effectiveness of masks specifically in helping to contain the COVID pandemic.

    We now have a lot of new research. To help contain a pandemic, masks do not have to be 100% effective, they merely have to contribute to getting R down. And the research specific to the use of masks in this context is unequivocal - they are very useful.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,020

    TimT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It seems like in pubs the staff are wearing masks and the customers aren't, and in most shops it's the other way round. Not sure what the logic of that is.

    If there's any logic, the pubs have it the right way around.

    But given that there is more loud talking in pubs, everyone should be wearing a mask while not actively in the process of eating or drinking.
    The whole point of pubs is to have some fun
    In that case, you pays your money and yous makes your choice. But the trouble is that, in this case, you are also forcing your choice on others.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,054
    edited August 3
    @NerysHughes - Do you think we should have restricted travel when this started?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 422

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

    What do you think of this?


    "If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

    I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

    I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

    I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

    The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
    "correct on most things"

    LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
    I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

    If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

    The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.
    If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.
    As far as I can see, the only people talking about the posssibility of a meger between the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats are the PB Tories.

    But then they would, wouldn´t they?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,400

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    Our scientists came out with some absolute mince near the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile in Japan, a country with huge pop density and plenty of people total deaths are at just over a thousand. Reason ? Masks.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,020
    Pulpstar said:

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    Our scientists came out with some absolute mince near the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile in Japan, a country with huge pop density and plenty of people total deaths are at just over a thousand. Reason ? Masks.
    Pulp, see my post at 11:37 server time. (6:37 where I am)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,400
    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @NerysHughes so you think you know more than the scientific consensus across the world?

    You’re just like those people who think the MMR vaccine causes Autism.

    Until very recently the WHO were against mask wearing. I assume they employ top scientific people. I don’t think they have ever been against the MMR vaccine. Is there any evidence that mask wearing is working in Israel, Spain, Japan or Australia ?
    You seem to put great weight on the WHO guidance in the past, but not their current guidance. Why is that?
    Because if masks worked so well then they would have recommended them straight away. Masks are not new things. They would have studied their benefit in preventing the spread of viruses for years. They said up until the end of April that wearing masks by the public could be detrimental. It was only political pressure that made them change their tune. Look it up in google and you will see. Watch our Governments briefings from around the same time and our scientists are saying the same thing..

    Now if someone has produced statistical evidence that masks have reduced Covid spread in a country then I can’t find it.

    Look at the UK, we managed to get Covid down to trace levels without mask wearing. How did we manage that if masks are the panacea of virus infection control?
    Our scientists came out with some absolute mince near the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile in Japan, a country with huge pop density and plenty of people total deaths are at just over a thousand. Reason ? Masks.
    Pulp, see my post at 11:37 server time. (6:37 where I am)
    Yep, masks are not perfect but they do supress the reproductive rate of the virus.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,875
    ClippP said:

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

    What do you think of this?


    "If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

    I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

    I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

    I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

    The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
    "correct on most things"

    LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
    I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

    If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

    The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.
    If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.
    As far as I can see, the only people talking about the posssibility of a meger between the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats are the PB Tories.

    But then they would, wouldn´t they?
    If the Greens were inclined to merge with anyone it would have been with Corbyn's Labour - they had almost identical programmes on a whole range of issues. But it really struck me at the Green conference that they're a totally different culture to Labour - perfectly willing to owrk together (I have a nice Green Exec colleague) but counter-culture dominates in a way that it never has with Labour (or the LibDems). They don't have the pragmatic centrist streak that dominates the German Greens.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,025

    ClippP said:

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    I know there's a few LibDem members on PB.

    What do you think of this?


    "If Layla becomes leader, it will simply be a matter of time before the Lib Dems and the Greens formally merge."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/layla-moran-will-kill-off-the-lib-dems-but-i-still-want-her-to-win

    I'm an ex-member but that's a particularly waspish load of piffle from Nick Tyrone who really should know better.

    I suspect Ed will win and we must always remember what someone says in an election and what they do once they've won can often be very different things.

    I'm hoping Ed will face down the "progressives" in the autumn and argue for a form of Orange Book-lite approach in contrast to the high spending high borrowing policies of the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats.

    The problem unfortunately is that will leave the LDs where they were in the 1950s - marginalised but correct on most things.
    "correct on most things"

    LOL. No wonder nobody votes for such pompous arses.
    I see no prospect of LDs merging with Greens - why would they attach superlative bonkers when they already have comparative bonkers in situ?

    If you think Layla is interesting, just wait for Jenny Jones.

    The Greens also have rather longer standing antisemitism problems than Labour imo, which may be why Brighton is going to be interesting over the next couple of years - especially if Labour cleans house there.
    If the Lib dems think they are close enough to the greens to consider merger then they are not very good at being lib dems.
    As far as I can see, the only people talking about the posssibility of a meger between the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats are the PB Tories.

    But then they would, wouldn´t they?
    If the Greens were inclined to merge with anyone it would have been with Corbyn's Labour - they had almost identical programmes on a whole range of issues. But it really struck me at the Green conference that they're a totally different culture to Labour - perfectly willing to owrk together (I have a nice Green Exec colleague) but counter-culture dominates in a way that it never has with Labour (or the LibDems). They don't have the pragmatic centrist streak that dominates the German Greens.
    An unintended side effect of PR. The Realos won in Germany cos of the prospect of power sharing.
    The fundis dominate in the UK Greens. Because when you can't govern, purity is prioritised. Sidelining the Porritt/ David Bellamy ecologists.
    The Greens are seen as extremists in a way they aren't in Germany. Where they are merely one of a wide range of potential coalition partners.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,025
    Andy_JS said:

    "'All this for a tenner!'
    Food lovers share the incredible deals they've found on the first day of Rishi's 50% off scheme including £2.29 for a Big Mac meal and £3.50 for a Tesco fry up"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8588283/Food-lovers-share-Eat-Help-deals-day.html

    Bread and circuses.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,390
    edited August 3
    USA Dem VP slot betting sees Kamala Harris drift back out to even money on Betfair. I've removed Tammy Baldwin because 4 is almost certainly a false price, and three-figure prices are out there with the books. Karen Bass has drifted notably today.

    Although Biden is not due to announce his choice till next week, it is likely to be finalised by this week so bear that in mind.

    My position is currently all-green but I am seriously considering tilting it to favour Susan Rice who, on reflection, looks the most obvious choice, though I have no inside information. The 340s that at least one PBer secured about Rice is, alas, a distant memory.

    Kamala Harris: 2.02
    Susan Rice: 6
    Tammy Duckworth: 9.6
    Val Demings: 11
    Elizabeth Warren: 12
    Karen Bass: 15
    Gretchen Whitmer: 36
    Michelle Obama: 42
    Gina Raimondo: 70
    Keisha Lance Bottoms: 70
    Michelle Lujan Grisham: 75
    Hillary Clinton: 130
    Stacey Abrams: 200
This discussion has been closed.