politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Pandemic: Millions of people in the north affected by new

geoffw said:

Cyclefree said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/bricks-mortar/welcome-to-beijing-on-thames-chinas-super-rich-buy-up-prime-london-vpc9x0h7k

Do you think we’ll learn the lessons of the ISC’s Russia report about why letting in the people and money from an aggressive and authoritarian state is not a good idea?

Me neither.

There has been an about-turn in our relations with China and Russia. Perhaps you didn't notice.

Govts are one thing, oligarchs and crooks are another ...

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

Yes, while there are issues amongst the Muslim community, the area in Leicester most affected is substantially Hindu.

algarkirk said:

MarqueeMark said:

BannedinnParis said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

I am enjoying the stones on people saying they've moved too rapidly.

Starmer's outrage seems very badly misplaced.

Starmer has a job to do. The government must be either too early or too late, and enforce too much or too little. And when there is nothing else then the way it is communicated must be attacked. This is pure routine stuff. Nothing to see.

Or maybe he could party politics to one side and put the public health of the country first? Like the Mayor of Greater Manchester has done?

I know, what am I thinking? Starmer doesn't care about the health of northerners . . . there's no reason he needs to try and win around northern voters in the future because he has the red wall to rely on. Oh wait . . .

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

Without looking for blame, surely we can all agree that it would have been sensible to get some of the higher profile community leaders onside and also to have the good manners to announce it in person rather than the Trumpesque method of tweeting the policy?

Gallowgate said:

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

I don’t think there’s any “fault” involved, but Eid is clearly a risk factor in the coming week. Just like Christmas will be. This is especially the case in areas where the rate of infection is higher.

But we're slightly back to the Cheltenham thing. How dare people go to Cheltenham when all the while the London Underground was ferrying 2m people a day up each others' armpits.

Eid is clearly a risk factor but can you see the selective element of it.

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Quite a shift from 'the government should follow the advice of the medical professionals' and 'the government not locking down hard and fast has killed 50,000 people'. Should they also have reached out to the leaders of the 5G protests?

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

BannedinnParis said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

I am enjoying the stones on people saying they've moved too rapidly.

Air of panic though. Hancock's voice was cracking on the radio this morning.

So they're taking it seriously and this isn't an action they'd have wanted to take?

I should bloody well hope so! If they were flippant and had an air of la-dee-da about it I'd be more concerned.

Sure but you probably didn't hear the interview since it was on the BBC rather than Netflix.

The impression was of a man at his wits end with his boss. One's heart went out.

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Quite a shift from 'the government should follow the advice of the medical professionals' and 'the government not locking down hard and fast has killed 50,000 people'. Should they also have reached out to the leaders of the 5G protests?

What a moronic thing to say.

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

Indeed. Despite this being geographically contained within the North and not applied to London etc which is where most Muslims actually live. Very odd.

Realistically would it be possible to impose a local lockdown purely on the London Borough of Hackney? I doubt it.

I don't see why not, though Islam in London is more than just Hackney and Tower Hamlets etc

But despite all the talk about Eid, I see no evidence there's any concern there at the minute as the data shows the virus is up here in the North West and not in the capital. So it makes sense for us in the North West to be more concerned regardless of race or religion.

I’m just thinking that the movement of people in Hackney to other London boroughs and back is probably greater than those in Greater Manchester. I don’t know this, but I can imagine it is true.

I’m not suggesting this is all driven by Eid, I just thought it might be something the Government might want to get ahead on.

Peter Moore standing down from Liverpool.

He has done a fantastic job and should retire very proud of what he has helped build.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

StuartDickson said:

... A presentation was also reportedly made last week to Downing Street which included very unfavorable internal polling.

... The broader context of Carlaw’s resignation is the disarray the pro-Union side finds itself in nine months before the Holyrood election.

The Scottish Tories, the supposed standard bearers of unionism, find themselves rudderless, while a growing number of figures are calling on “invisible” Richard Leonard to stand down as Labour leader.

Sturgeon’s poll ratings, by contrast, are soaring...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jackson-carlaw-conservative-leader-resigned-22445144.amp

It was a bit unlucky for you that Alex- "Russia Today"-Salmond played the "once in a lifetime" referendum a bit too early wasn't it? When he used that phrase, do you think it was a Putin type propaganda lie, or does he have a completely different understanding of the word "generation", or perhaps even the word "once"?

After an election it is the winner's manifesto e.g. "Vote No to keep Scotland in the EU" that is tested, not the loser's.

Most Scottish Leave voters voted SNP in 2015

So?

Brexit has made little difference to independence polling, the highest percentage of Remain voters from any of the main Scottish parties was in the Scottish LDs, plenty of Scottish nationalists are also anti EU e.g. Jim Sillars

On the contrary, Brexit is another nail in the coffin of the United Kingdom. It is not just the European issue itself that is the problem, but also the symbolism of Westminster forcing a policy on Scotland, despite both referendum and Holyrood being opposed. A Union of equals would have negotiated a more acceptable compromise such as EEA, or a Northern Ireland style internal UK border.

The polling shows otherwise, including Don't Knows Yes is not over 50% in any Scottish independence poll.

If Brexit was key Yes would be on 60%+ even including Don't Knows but as a diehard Remainer you can only see through the prism of Brexit

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

StuartDickson said:

... A presentation was also reportedly made last week to Downing Street which included very unfavorable internal polling.

... The broader context of Carlaw’s resignation is the disarray the pro-Union side finds itself in nine months before the Holyrood election.

The Scottish Tories, the supposed standard bearers of unionism, find themselves rudderless, while a growing number of figures are calling on “invisible” Richard Leonard to stand down as Labour leader.

Sturgeon’s poll ratings, by contrast, are soaring...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jackson-carlaw-conservative-leader-resigned-22445144.amp

It was a bit unlucky for you that Alex- "Russia Today"-Salmond played the "once in a lifetime" referendum a bit too early wasn't it? When he used that phrase, do you think it was a Putin type propaganda lie, or does he have a completely different understanding of the word "generation", or perhaps even the word "once"?

After an election it is the winner's manifesto e.g. "Vote No to keep Scotland in the EU" that is tested, not the loser's.

Most Scottish Leave voters voted SNP in 2015

So?

Brexit has made little difference to independence polling, the highest percentage of Remain voters from any of the main Scottish parties was in the Scottish LDs, plenty of Scottish nationalists are also anti EU e.g. Jim Sillars

On the contrary, Brexit is another nail in the coffin of the United Kingdom. It is not just the European issue itself that is the problem, but also the symbolism of Westminster forcing a policy on Scotland, despite both referendum and Holyrood being opposed. A Union of equals would have negotiated a more acceptable compromise such as EEA, or a Northern Ireland style internal UK border.

The polling shows otherwise, including Don't Knows Yes is not over 50% in any Scottish independence poll.

If Brexit was key Yes would be on 60%+ even including Don't Knows but as a diehard Remainer you can only see through the prism of Brexit

Your “including don’t knows” qualification is really telling.

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

Indeed. Despite this being geographically contained within the North and not applied to London etc which is where most Muslims actually live. Very odd.

There does seem to be a correlation between recent hotspots and places where all 3 of the following factors apply: Multi generational high density housing, high levels of poverty, low levels of educational attainment. The difference in London may well be related to higher education levels in the poorer, high density areas.

Labelling it is an Islamic problem is simplistic, but ignoring that multi generational high density housing is more common in Muslim families unhelpful as well.

geoffw said:

Cyclefree said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/bricks-mortar/welcome-to-beijing-on-thames-chinas-super-rich-buy-up-prime-london-vpc9x0h7k

Do you think we’ll learn the lessons of the ISC’s Russia report about why letting in the people and money from an aggressive and authoritarian state is not a good idea?

Me neither.

There has been an about-turn in our relations with China and Russia. Perhaps you didn't notice.

Well, let’s see what is actually done about stopping Chinese “investors” buying up property and what actual due diligence is done on the sources of their wealth.

Gallowgate said:

One thing I’ve noticed that the current devolution settlement really amplifies the concept of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland being almost like colonies or dominions. I know they aren’t - but if you think about it, the setup is not too different.

The Prime Minister is effectively the Prime Minister of England, and for the most part governs and legislates only for England. This is especially obvious at the moment where Health is a huge focus. It therefore focuses minds when the Scottish Government wants to do something that is outside of their “competancies” or in a grey area (amplified by Brexit), it looks like them having to beg mother England for permission. I’m sure this is not lost on people in Scotland.

I’m sure I’ve not explained myself very well - but the constitutional settlement needs looking at desperately if the union is to last. The status quo just doesn’t really make much sense. (I know, Tony Blair New Labour bla bla).

You are 100% correct.

This is all part and parcel the much warned about West Lothian Question.

Tony Blair was a constitutional vandal and in hindsight was one of the worst Prime Ministers of all time. A reverse Midas, everything he has touched has ultimately turned to shit.

This could have all been avoided had there been an English Parliament at the same time as Scottish, Welsh and NI devolution. And if you're not prepared to have that, there shouldn't have been Scottish, Welsh and NI devolution.

StuartDickson said:

There is a widespread misunderstanding that devolution only occurred in 1999. This is, of course, nonsense.

Political devolution occurred in 1999, however, administrative devolution in most areas (law, education, health, welfare, housing, agriculture, transport etc) existed in the period 1707-1999.

What the 1999 reform did was bring political accountability to a long-entrenched system.

Indeed but politics matters.

Asymmetric politics was a terrible, terrible idea.

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

Indeed. Despite this being geographically contained within the North and not applied to London etc which is where most Muslims actually live. Very odd.

There does seem to be a correlation between recent hotspots and places where all 3 of the following factors apply: Multi generational high density housing, high levels of poverty, low levels of educational attainment. The difference in London may well be related to higher education levels in the poorer, high density areas.

Labelling it is an Islamic problem is simplistic, but ignoring that multi generational high density housing is more common in Muslim families unhelpful as well.

Didn't we also find out this morning that a spike was occurring in Stamford Hill, home of Orthodox Jews?

Look it may well be that the spikes in the North coincide with Muslim areas of activity and living but I am deeply uneasy that all of a sudden this should be seen as a "Muslim" (ie minority) problem and that we are all advising the MCB how best to control themselves.

Because once you start to blame a minority for the general ills of the country you are in a very bad place.

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

Nothing to do with fault at all. Simply that Eid celebrations may put them at higher risk and it is therefore sensible to take steps to minimise the risk.

Stark_Dawning said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

Oh for Heavens sake...

If the govt PR team phoned up the Beeb and Sky and said "We are sending over a minister / spokesperson to make a major announcement" do you think the response would be "Sorry No.10 but we are all in bed having our cocoa"?

It would be on screen and live about 10 seconds after No.10 put the phone down. "We interrupt this programme...."

Yes, I remember back the day the scheduled programme being uninterrupted with a press conference about a UK-US arms deal.

Still seems slower than the approach they actually used.

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

Nothing to do with fault at all. Simply that Eid celebrations may put them at higher risk and it is therefore sensible to take steps to minimise the risk.

@Cyclefree your belief in the inherent goodwill and pure intentions of some elements of our society is touching.

bigjohnowls said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

Nothing to do with fault at all. Simply that Eid celebrations may put them at higher risk and it is therefore sensible to take steps to minimise the risk.

So it would be OK to announce at 9pm on Xmas Eve that you could no longer have Xmas dinner together and you best get your turkey meal for 1 quick

Unless you take it to the park to eat of course

TOPPING said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.

Indeed. Despite this being geographically contained within the North and not applied to London etc which is where most Muslims actually live. Very odd.

There does seem to be a correlation between recent hotspots and places where all 3 of the following factors apply: Multi generational high density housing, high levels of poverty, low levels of educational attainment. The difference in London may well be related to higher education levels in the poorer, high density areas.

Labelling it is an Islamic problem is simplistic, but ignoring that multi generational high density housing is more common in Muslim families unhelpful as well.

Didn't we also find out this morning that a spike was occurring in Stamford Hill, home of Orthodox Jews?

Look it may well be that the spikes in the North coincide with Muslim areas of activity and living but I am deeply uneasy that all of a sudden this should be seen as a "Muslim" (ie minority) problem and that we are all advising the MCB how best to control themselves.

Because once you start to blame a minority for the general ills of the country you are in a very bad place.

I am uncomfortable with it as well but dont think that should stop it being discussed. And yes on that map Stamford Hill had one of the highest rates in London.

Note I did not blame anything on people or religion, I said it seems the factors are multi generational high density housing, poverty and low education levels. Clearly no-one is choosing poverty or low education levels.

Gallowgate said:

One thing I’ve noticed that the current devolution settlement really amplifies the concept of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland being almost like colonies or dominions. I know they aren’t - but if you think about it, the setup is not too different.

The Prime Minister is effectively the Prime Minister of England, and for the most part governs and legislates only for England. This is especially obvious at the moment where Health is a huge focus. It therefore focuses minds when the Scottish Government wants to do something that is outside of their “competencies” or in a grey area (amplified by Brexit), it looks like them having to beg mother England for permission. I’m sure this is not lost on people in Scotland.

I’m sure I’ve not explained myself very well - but the constitutional settlement needs looking at desperately if the union is to last. The status quo just doesn’t really make much sense. (I know, Tony Blair New Labour bla bla).

Living here, I don't really think that's the nub of the issue. It is not constant reminders of the authority of the UK Government we get up here, it is their almost total absence from the conversation. Where they are mentioned, the Scottish Government gets to decide the terms of reference. Where the UK Government provides funding, the Scottish Government is the one seen spending it. Everything that seems prima facie as an argument for the Union, is not, once it's been through the mangle and come out the other side.

Mercifully, the UK Government is learning fast, in a way it has not before. The defenestration of Carlaw is a positive step. There have been visits recently by Boris and Gove, and there seems to be more 'involvement' - all of which enhances knowledge.

The next step, I believe, should be the re-emergence of the Scotland Office as a means of providing direct support to Scotland that bypasses the Scottish Government. It should leave Edinburgh, and in my opinion would be a good fit for Aberdeen, for a number of reasons.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris and Chris Whitty live press conference at 12

Its good he's got Chris Whitty...... .that guys a big votewinner LOL

Beibheirli_C said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

Oh for Heavens sake...

If the govt PR team phoned up the Beeb and Sky and said "We are sending over a minister / spokesperson to make a major announcement" do you think the response would be "Sorry No.10 but we are all in bed having our cocoa"?

It would be on screen and live about 10 seconds after No.10 put the phone down. "We interrupt this programme...."

Yes, I remember back the day the scheduled programme being uninterrupted with a press conference about a UK-US arms deal.

Still seems slower than the approach they actually used.

I agree that nothing is quicker than a tweet, but it is still the wrong way to announce this.

As BJO pointed out, change "Eid" to "Christmas" and see how it reads. If you are going to cancel Christmas, do it in person and expect a backlash.

As it turns out it wasn't announced via tweet after all.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris and Chris Whitty live press conference at 12

I do hope Boris makes his presentation, following yesterday's theme, astride a police motorcycle.

We don't want too much gravitas- no fun at all!

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

While all of this is happening in the UK, there is a huge economic disaster unfolding across Europe and it feels like everyone is taking their eyes off the ball. Spain just had a -18.5% quarter, Italy -12.4%, Germany -10.1%, France -13.8%, and we're looking at ~ -12% when the figures are released on the 12th.

We beat France. Result.

That's my estimate, it could be worse.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps they should replace Matt Hancock with a tub of lard?

Can you visit people who live outside Greater Manchester? Confusion as Matt Hancock appears to contradict own guidance

The Health Secretary seemed to suggest people could visit households outside the region - however the government's own guidance says they shouldn't

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/can-you-visit-people-who-18693237

The Leicester guidance says you can visit outside the area:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/leicester-lockdown-what-you-can-and-cannot-do

MaxPB said:

While all of this is happening in the UK, there is a huge economic disaster unfolding across Europe and it feels like everyone is taking their eyes off the ball. Spain just had a -18.5% quarter, Italy -12.4%, Germany -10.1%, France -13.8%, and we're looking at ~ -12% when the figures are released on the 12th.

That's would be OK if there was a bounce back

There isn;t one. That;'s the real problem.

all of these countries are destroying their economies over a virus that is killing very very few now.

Look at twitter, look at the comments under news site articles. People are getting angry and its 30 degrees centigrade outside.

Just wait til its zero degrees and dark. and five million are unemployed. Permanently.

Winter is coming.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

StuartDickson said:

... A presentation was also reportedly made last week to Downing Street which included very unfavorable internal polling.

... The broader context of Carlaw’s resignation is the disarray the pro-Union side finds itself in nine months before the Holyrood election.

The Scottish Tories, the supposed standard bearers of unionism, find themselves rudderless, while a growing number of figures are calling on “invisible” Richard Leonard to stand down as Labour leader.

Sturgeon’s poll ratings, by contrast, are soaring...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jackson-carlaw-conservative-leader-resigned-22445144.amp

It was a bit unlucky for you that Alex- "Russia Today"-Salmond played the "once in a lifetime" referendum a bit too early wasn't it? When he used that phrase, do you think it was a Putin type propaganda lie, or does he have a completely different understanding of the word "generation", or perhaps even the word "once"?

After an election it is the winner's manifesto e.g. "Vote No to keep Scotland in the EU" that is tested, not the loser's.

Most Scottish Leave voters voted SNP in 2015

So?

Brexit has made little difference to independence polling, the highest percentage of Remain voters from any of the main Scottish parties was in the Scottish LDs, plenty of Scottish nationalists are also anti EU e.g. Jim Sillars

On the contrary, Brexit is another nail in the coffin of the United Kingdom. It is not just the European issue itself that is the problem, but also the symbolism of Westminster forcing a policy on Scotland, despite both referendum and Holyrood being opposed. A Union of equals would have negotiated a more acceptable compromise such as EEA, or a Northern Ireland style internal UK border.

The polling shows otherwise, including Don't Knows Yes is not over 50% in any Scottish independence poll.

If Brexit was key Yes would be on 60%+ even including Don't Knows but as a diehard Remainer you can only see through the prism of Brexit

Your “including don’t knows” qualification is really telling.

In 2014 Don't Knows mostly went No, in Quebec in 1995 Yes to independence from Canada led most final polls but No won with 51% as Don't Knows went No

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies if already posted.

https://twitter.com/SpillerOfTea/status/1288970120568672258

I think you can also catch it in Auntie Pat's garden. The answer is to take her to the pub.

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Quite a shift from 'the government should follow the advice of the medical professionals' and 'the government not locking down hard and fast has killed 50,000 people'. Should they also have reached out to the leaders of the 5G protests?

What a moronic thing to say.

That "Muslim leaders' should be given input into "a set of agreed policies"? What proportion of imams do you imagine are also qualified immunologists with the ability to decide what steps will most effectively check the spread of the virus? How long might this discussion have taken, with Eid approaching? Most importantly, why is it only the Muslim community which is allowed to determine how exactly the lockdown will apply to them, when Christian churches were shut down through Easter?

You can certainly ask them for the best way to announce this. You can mention that you have spoken to them.

They are not getting to set policy, merely helping deliver the announcement.

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Quite a shift from 'the government should follow the advice of the medical professionals' and 'the government not locking down hard and fast has killed 50,000 people'. Should they also have reached out to the leaders of the 5G protests?

What a moronic thing to say.

That "Muslim leaders' should be given input into "a set of agreed policies"? What proportion of imams do you imagine are also qualified immunologists with the ability to decide what steps will most effectively check the spread of the virus? How long might this discussion have taken, with Eid approaching? Most importantly, why is it only the Muslim community which is allowed to determine how exactly the lockdown will apply to them, when Christian churches were shut down through Easter?

Showing your ignorance. There was another Eid during lockdown, back in May, where the mosques and churches were shut.

I see we are back to government by CMO.

Jeez Boris is fucking useless. They went from following to being guided by and presumably they are back to following because they want the scientists to take the heat for whatever is about to be said now.

Spineless fuckers.

Beibheirli_C said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Quite a shift from 'the government should follow the advice of the medical professionals' and 'the government not locking down hard and fast has killed 50,000 people'. Should they also have reached out to the leaders of the 5G protests?

What a moronic thing to say.

That "Muslim leaders' should be given input into "a set of agreed policies"? What proportion of imams do you imagine are also qualified immunologists with the ability to decide what steps will most effectively check the spread of the virus? How long might this discussion have taken, with Eid approaching? Most importantly, why is it only the Muslim community which is allowed to determine how exactly the lockdown will apply to them, when Christian churches were shut down through Easter?

You can certainly ask them for the best way to announce this. You can mention that you have spoken to them.

They are not getting to set policy, merely helping deliver the announcement.

Exactly. Having a joint press conference between Hancock and a spokesperson for the MCB for example.

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Quite a shift from 'the government should follow the advice of the medical professionals' and 'the government not locking down hard and fast has killed 50,000 people'. Should they also have reached out to the leaders of the 5G protests?

What a moronic thing to say.

That "Muslim leaders' should be given input into "a set of agreed policies"? What proportion of imams do you imagine are also qualified immunologists with the ability to decide what steps will most effectively check the spread of the virus? How long might this discussion have taken, with Eid approaching? Most importantly, why is it only the Muslim community which is allowed to determine how exactly the lockdown will apply to them, when Christian churches were shut down through Easter?

What language are you writing in? I couldn't make head nor tail of what you were saying.

Forgive me if Russian is your first language.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris and Chris Whitty live press conference at 12

Who is Boris Whitty? Is he Chris Whitty's husband, or is this a new name for Boris Johnson, who, realising the name Johnson is American for penis, decided that he would also use the surname "Whitty" as this sounded as though he is someone amusing and clown-like ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps they should replace Matt Hancock with a tub of lard?

Can you visit people who live outside Greater Manchester? Confusion as Matt Hancock appears to contradict own guidance

The Health Secretary seemed to suggest people could visit households outside the region - however the government's own guidance says they shouldn't

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/can-you-visit-people-who-18693237

You're saying BJ should take on the health portfolio? What with him already being Minister for the Union, that would be Churchillian.

MaxPB said:

contrarian said:

MaxPB said:

While all of this is happening in the UK, there is a huge economic disaster unfolding across Europe and it feels like everyone is taking their eyes off the ball. Spain just had a -18.5% quarter, Italy -12.4%, Germany -10.1%, France -13.8%, and we're looking at ~ -12% when the figures are released on the 12th.

That's would be OK if there was a bounce back

There isn;t one. That;'s the real problem.

all of these countries are destroying their economies over a virus that is killing very very few now.

Look at twitter, look at the comments under news site articles. People are getting angry and its 30 degrees centigrade outside.

Just wait til its zero degrees and dark. and five million are unemployed. Permanently.

Winter is coming.

There is one, June is looking like +5% and July looks like +6% from the leading indicators, but we've had a 24% peak to trough drop in GDP, we'll only have recovered ~11% by the end of July and August looks like it could be quite mixed given local lockdowns and slower unlocking in certain parts of the country than hoped.

Our figures are that 6% of the pre-virus economy is unrecoverable until a vaccine and that drops to 3% once there is a vaccine. I feel like that's about right, but I would say that given I wrote a big chunk of the report.

You are clearly an expert and I defer to your analysis. Those numbers look optimistic to me, but then I realise estimates like these must be ferociously difficult to calculate.

Economic predictions are difficult enough in normal times, but right now it must be next to impossible and a thankless task.

contrarian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris and Chris Whitty live press conference at 12

Its good he's got Chris Whitty...... .that guys a big votewinner LOL

He had better ratings that Boris Johnson, IIRC it was a net positive rating of 25% with YouGov.

One thing I will certainly concede. Remainers may have been wrong about brexit (in my humble opinion), but they were absolutely right about the character of Boris Johnson.

I have to hand that to you. You had the measure of the man, his motives and his glaring weaknesses, long before the rest of us.

Your welcome.

Mexicanpete said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Quite a shift from 'the government should follow the advice of the medical professionals' and 'the government not locking down hard and fast has killed 50,000 people'. Should they also have reached out to the leaders of the 5G protests?

What a moronic thing to say.

That "Muslim leaders' should be given input into "a set of agreed policies"? What proportion of imams do you imagine are also qualified immunologists with the ability to decide what steps will most effectively check the spread of the virus? How long might this discussion have taken, with Eid approaching? Most importantly, why is it only the Muslim community which is allowed to determine how exactly the lockdown will apply to them, when Christian churches were shut down through Easter?

What language are you writing in? I couldn't make head nor tail of what you were saying.

I apologise - I've just checked its Flesch Kincaid score and the text is apparently only comprehensible to those with a reading age of 17 or above. Let me summarise the basic premise:

1) That medical professionals, not religous leaders, should determine what policies are followed.
2) That it is vital to act quickly in order to check the spread of the virus, which rules out lengthy consultations.
3) That the lockdown should apply to all members of a community equally, and not be determined by which special interest group shouts loudest .

Chelyabinsk said:

Mexicanpete said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Quite a shift from 'the government should follow the advice of the medical professionals' and 'the government not locking down hard and fast has killed 50,000 people'. Should they also have reached out to the leaders of the 5G protests?

What a moronic thing to say.

That "Muslim leaders' should be given input into "a set of agreed policies"? What proportion of imams do you imagine are also qualified immunologists with the ability to decide what steps will most effectively check the spread of the virus? How long might this discussion have taken, with Eid approaching? Most importantly, why is it only the Muslim community which is allowed to determine how exactly the lockdown will apply to them, when Christian churches were shut down through Easter?

What language are you writing in? I couldn't make head nor tail of what you were saying.

I apologise - I've just checked its Flesch Kincaid score and the text is apparently only comprehensible to those with a reading age of 17 or above. Let me summarise the basic premise:

1) That medical professionals, not religous leaders, should determine what policies are followed.
2) That it is vital to act quickly in order to check the spread of the virus, which rules out lengthy consultations.
3) That the lockdown should apply to all members of a community equally, and not be determined by which special interest group shouts loudest .

That's better. Thanks.

MaxPB said:

While all of this is happening in the UK, there is a huge economic disaster unfolding across Europe and it feels like everyone is taking their eyes off the ball. Spain just had a -18.5% quarter, Italy -12.4%, Germany -10.1%, France -13.8%, and we're looking at ~ -12% when the figures are released on the 12th.

I get the feeling quite a lot of the news is displacement activity.
Both government and the population in general are aware of it but trying to ignore it in the hope something will turn up.
The persistent faith in a vaccine before Christmas is but one example of this.

MaxPB said:

This idea the the government should be negotiating things with self-appointed community leaders is absolutely for the birds.

As an Asian person if some trumped up "community leader" tried to tell me how to live my life I'd tell them to get fucked. Government advice is what matters, not what any idiot community leader thinks. It's frankly patronising to assume that "community leaders" actually speak for anyone other than themselves, the government is best to act as if they don't exist and speaking directly to the community, not via some idiot pushing whatever agenda they have.

What are you on about? The Muslim Council of GB for example are best placed to help put in place specific guidance in how to celebrate Eid safely in the current circumstances.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1289121998023557120?s=21

MaxPB said:

This idea the the government should be negotiating things with self-appointed community leaders is absolutely for the birds.

As an Asian person if some trumped up "community leader" tried to tell me how to live my life I'd tell them to get fucked. Government advice is what matters, not what any idiot community leader thinks. It's frankly patronising to assume that "community leaders" actually speak for anyone other than themselves, the government is best to act as if they don't exist and speaking directly to the community, not via some idiot pushing whatever agenda they have.

Community leaders shouldnt have any say in govt policy beyond the events they themselves organise. I see no reason why someone organising a church or mosque event shouldnt have to go through a similar process as someone organising a swimming pool event.

That is all that has happened, govt talked to people who are responsible for and understand an event before deciding on the rules.