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We've had employee surveys. The big majority want a split between home and office, generally 2 of one and 3 of the other. That's what I was doing anyway.IshmaelZ said:
For sure πολιτικός doesn't mean political, but "city-dwelling" or "civic" are arguably better translations than "social." Which reinforces your point, of course.rcs1000 said:
The first words of Aristotle's Politics are "man is a social* animal". A few months of lockdown doesn't change our underlying nature.MaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
* That is the correct translation
Reports of the death of the city centre office are greatly exaggerated, on the basis of a highly skewed sample of prosperous middle aged homeowners saying they have rather liked wfh for three really weird months when there's been precious little w to be done and their companies have had the benefit of all the resources of their existing offices if they needed them. We don't hear much from their employers or from their spouses, or from the younge,r five living in a two bed flat, demographic.0 -
First rules of stats. If an individual data point looks interesting, it's probably wrong or different to the other points in an important way.LadyG said:1 -
Did Phil Brown come on as a special gueat at half time?squareroot2 said:
Quite or changed their minds.. the Science from the SCIENTISTS has been terrible,. they cannot agree with each other, no wonder its mixed messages.LadyG said:
Perhaps the SAGE and other scientists, like Van Tam, should not have told us that ‘masks are useless’?TheScreamingEagles said:Who could have predicted this?
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1283105264162541568
PS
Who would be a Hull City supporter tonight, nightmare0 -
But that's a figure for hospital deaths in England, not all covid linked deaths in the UK.Andy_JS said:
A lot of those cases may be from a long time ago. David Paton's figures were showing around 20 deaths a day the last time I checked.LadyG said:WTF is up with the UK data today? 1,200 new cases, 138 new deaths?!
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TheScreamingEagles said:
There's no need to censor the word 'turnips.'felix said:In Spain masks have been compulsory in almost all public spaces for at least 2 months. From tomorrow here in Andalucia we must wear them in all public open and closed spaces, when driving with others than immediate family, on the beach, except when in the water, swimming pools the same, etc, etc, etc... and the daytime temperatures will stay above 30 degrees for another 2 months. Fail to comply and instant €100 fines. Why the f*** am I reading all of this bollocks on here of whingers and moaners about civil liberties. I can only quote the inimitable Malc G and call you all a load of useless t*****s! Get a life.
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Yes, same here. I have friends who thought they were entirely secure who are now deeply concerned, if not horrified.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.0 -
Temporarily maybe not, by 2024 absolutely, if free movement is still in place then Tory voters in the Red Wall will go back to Labour en masse or to the Brexit Party as ending free movement was the main reason they switched from Labour to the Tories.Stuartinromford said:
True. It will be toxic for the Conservatives. But consider a *possible* scenario in the autumn...HYUFD said:
If the Tory Party signed up to the SM and CU and full free movement and no trade deals not only would it lose the 2024 election it would likely come third in the 2029 election too and be overtaken by the Brexit Party which would become the main opposition to Starmer's Labour government under a resurgent Farage or Tice.Stuartinromford said:
Depends how badly the preparations go. Let's face it, they're not going well for something due to start in just over 5 months time. The hypothetical I'm imagining is one where the choice is between signing up for vassaldom (which undoubtedly will lose the 2024 election for the reason you suggest) and knowingly putting the country through such a mess that the 2029 election is a writeoff as well.HYUFD said:
Maybe but that would require free movement and not allow trade deals by the UK and see mass defections of Leavers from the Tories back to the Brexit PartyFF43 said:
I think Sunak might trigger the Vassal State option, aka SM+CU, if he sees it as a way to cluster-unfuck Brexit . He's less invested in Brexit than Cummings-Johnson. We're obviously not going to rejoin and going down the SM+CU route is a) the most aligned you can be to the EU without actually being a member and b) would spike Labour guns.Stuartinromford said:
Well yes. The poll tax is the textbook example of a bad mistake that was reversed, and the price was the PM's head and the seat loss in 1992. This has the potential to be much worse and harder to fix. But also harder to pre-empt.eek said:
Most of the time it wouldn't matter as its usually possible to fix problems retrospectively (yes there is still pain but you can correct the mistake).Stuartinromford said:
Which leads to an interesting question linked to the header.eek said:
Because Brexit has reached the f**king embarrassing stage of we haven't got a deal with the EU and we've just pissed off one of the other two economic giants...Anabobazina said:Nerys does have a point.
She asks why introduce masks in all shops (even boutiques, which are rarely visited by the old, infirm and obese) when all the other measures have so obviously worked?
This is what I can’t grasp either.
It’s Tuesday, usually the worst day of the week, yet the deaths announced are very few. The mitigation strategies have clearly worked.
Why then, introduce a fairly draconian one now? I just can’t understand the thinking,
Today's mask argument has completely hid the need for a 15,000 space lorry processing site in Ashford...
Imagine, hypothetically if you like, that the Johnson government's implementation of Brexit shows strong signs of being a clustershambles. Just hypothetically.
Now imagine that you are a youngish centre-right politician. You've made it a long way up the greasy pole, but you are naturally ambitious for more. You support the concept of Brexit, but you are planning on a career for many years after 2021. You also have enough of a numerate business background to be able to read the warning signs.
Obviously, you don't want to be one to push the emergency STOP button, even if you can locate it. (Someone seems to have disconnected the one which was there last month). But at the same time, you can see the warning lights flashing all around.
Just hypothetically, what do you do and when? Because I wouldn't have a clue. Might be why I'm not Chancel... not that I mean him, anyway.
For Brexit I'm not sure if the mistakes that are likely to be made this week are fixable (one mistake has already been made as we've confirmed China is no longer a friend, I believe us telling the EU the same is due to occur tomorrow).
So if you're Ri... illy ambitious (think I got away with that one) and a cabinet minister, what do you do?
Sometimes the choice is between two terrible options.
In a generation, it may be possible the Tory Party comes around to accepting staying in the SM but it would have to have been a Labour government maybe propped up by the LDs that would have taken us back in and a number of Tory defeats on a hard Brexit platform leading to that acceptance
The CANZUK trade negotiations are trundling along, but aren't finished. The US deal is going nowhere meaningful. Some of the lorry parks are being built, but not all of them. Firms are saying that they won't really be ready for the new paperwork in January.
Yes, pausing the process or signing up for extended vassalage will be politically awful. But will it really be worse than ploughing full speed ahead into the lighthouse?
Hypothetically.
If we still have free movement and no trade deals some southern Tory Leavers would also go Brexit Party too0 -
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.LadyG said:
Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.
This is from their data...
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I'd be surprised if that lasts much longer. I believe the Balearics are about to change their policy. Now the state of alarm is ovder measures are taken by Autonomous Community depending on their own circumstances. Compliance where I live in SE Spain is virtually 100% most of the time. As some idiot posted upthread Spain has long had an authoritarian streak - given my age and health - not such a bad thing really. And overall the society is pretty tolerant, in many ways more so than the UK these days.eristdoof said:
+1.felix said:In Spain masks have been compulsory in almost all public spaces for at least 2 months. From tomorrow here in Andalucia we must wear them in all public open and closed spaces, when driving with others than immediate family, on the beach, except when in the water, swimming pools the same, etc, etc, etc... and the daytime temperatures will stay above 30 degrees for another 2 months. Fail to comply and instant €100 fines. Why the f*** am I reading all of this bollocks on here of whingers and moaners about civil liberties. I can only quote the inimitable Malc G and call you all a load of useless t*****s! Get a life.
There is another place inSPain where masks are not compulsory, and that is in the night clubs of Majorca1 -
You've been taking lessons from HYUFD. That 44% is down 8% since mid April and Labour has been the beneficiary.Andy_JS said:
The opinion polls don't support that. Virtually all Labour's extra support since the election is at the expense of the LDs. The Tory share has held up at around 44%.CorrectHorseBattery said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg1 -
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
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And this was after the latest update -
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Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?0
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I love how @Pagan2 claims to speak for the working class of London and yet reccomends that they leave their family, friends, and support network behind and move 270 miles north, as only an out-of-touch person would.1
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It is bizarre. Irrational exuberance? Nowhere else to put money?Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
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Rutabugas then?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's no need to censor the word 'turnips.'felix said:In Spain masks have been compulsory in almost all public spaces for at least 2 months. From tomorrow here in Andalucia we must wear them in all public open and closed spaces, when driving with others than immediate family, on the beach, except when in the water, swimming pools the same, etc, etc, etc... and the daytime temperatures will stay above 30 degrees for another 2 months. Fail to comply and instant €100 fines. Why the f*** am I reading all of this bollocks on here of whingers and moaners about civil liberties. I can only quote the inimitable Malc G and call you all a load of useless t*****s! Get a life.
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No. Gateshead town centre is grim because the Heed is so close to Newcastle.Gallowgate said:
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
A pub crawl on Gateshead High Street used to be an entertaining experience!0 -
English hospital deaths. Andy_JS implied all UK deaths.Malmesbury said:0 -
The new Trinity Square is pretty nice, and obviously the area around the Sage and the Baltic. I used to live in Gateshead myself!SandyRentool said:
No. Gateshead town centre is grim because the Heed is so close to Newcastle.Gallowgate said:
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
A pub crawl on Gateshead High Street used to be an entertaining experience!0 -
David Paton was largely doing his thing from England hospital numbers.eristdoof said:
English hospital deaths. Andy_JS implied all UK deaths.Malmesbury said:
The following is all England deaths, all settings. 0 -
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
That will relieve the German Health Minister and the German press.felix said:
I'd be surprised if that lasts much longer. I believe the Balearics are about to change their policy. Now the state of alarm is ovder measures are taken by Autonomous Community depending on their own circumstances. Compliance where I live in SE Spain is virtually 100% most of the time. As some idiot posted upthread Spain has long had an authoritarian streak - given my age and health - not such a bad thing really. And overall the society is pretty tolerant, in many ways more so than the UK these days.eristdoof said:
+1.felix said:In Spain masks have been compulsory in almost all public spaces for at least 2 months. From tomorrow here in Andalucia we must wear them in all public open and closed spaces, when driving with others than immediate family, on the beach, except when in the water, swimming pools the same, etc, etc, etc... and the daytime temperatures will stay above 30 degrees for another 2 months. Fail to comply and instant €100 fines. Why the f*** am I reading all of this bollocks on here of whingers and moaners about civil liberties. I can only quote the inimitable Malc G and call you all a load of useless t*****s! Get a life.
There is another place inSPain where masks are not compulsory, and that is in the night clubs of Majorca0 -
Wales has day of event level data. I've made a lot of suggestions including the ones we discussed, they seemed quite surprised as to the level of detail we'd like to work with and they also seemed ok with providing API documentation so we can grab and aggregate data for ourselves. Apparently the data issues with Scotland are political, they aren't providing that level of data to PHE who are the ultimate owners of the dashboard and data.Malmesbury said:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.LadyG said:
Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.
This is from their data...
The date_diff function seemed to flummox them quite badly as well which was a bit depressing. They didn't seem to understand the concept and it's utility. Hopefully it isn't representative of everyone who is on the project.0 -
Yep. A lot of middle class jobs for the boys (and the girls - we don't discriminate, so long as you went to the the right school and have the right accent) suddenly no longer exist.LadyG said:
Yes, same here. I have friends who thought they were entirely secure who are now deeply concerned, if not horrified.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
I'm not trying to say that's a bigger deal than half a million hospitality industry workers on minimum wage being laid off, because it isn't. What it is is much more unexpected.
A lot of people who were previously very wealthy by average income standards and have never claimed benefit in their lives will be finding themselves on universal credit soon and it will be interesting to see how it shifts people's political opinions.4 -
You can't expect a rational answer to that. Because if they know then they're too wealthy and their time too valuable to bother; if they don't know then their response will not be rational.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
0 -
The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.HYUFD said:
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
Don't mention Trinity Square! They demolished the Get Carter car park to make way for that!Gallowgate said:
The new Trinity Square is pretty nice, and obviously the area around the Sage and the Baltic. I used to live in Gateshead myself!SandyRentool said:
No. Gateshead town centre is grim because the Heed is so close to Newcastle.Gallowgate said:
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
A pub crawl on Gateshead High Street used to be an entertaining experience!
Gateshead will always be in the shadow of Newcastle, but unlike The Toon we are part of a First Class Cricket County.0 -
Greater Newcastle isn’t in County Durham.SandyRentool said:
Don't mention Trinity Square! They demolished the Get Carter car park to make way for that!Gallowgate said:
The new Trinity Square is pretty nice, and obviously the area around the Sage and the Baltic. I used to live in Gateshead myself!SandyRentool said:
No. Gateshead town centre is grim because the Heed is so close to Newcastle.Gallowgate said:
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
A pub crawl on Gateshead High Street used to be an entertaining experience!
Gateshead will always be in the shadow of Newcastle, but unlike The Toon we are part of a First Class Cricket County.
0 -
I have an idea about the Scottish data....MaxPB said:
Wales has day of event level data. I've made a lot of suggestions including the ones we discussed, they seemed quite surprised as to the level of detail we'd like to work with and they also seemed ok with providing API documentation so we can grab and aggregate data for ourselves. Apparently the data issues with Scotland are political, they aren't providing that level of data to PHE who are the ultimate owners of the dashboard and data.Malmesbury said:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.LadyG said:
Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.
This is from their data...
The date_diff function seemed to flummox them quite badly as well which was a bit depressing. They didn't seem to understand the concept and it's utility. Hopefully it isn't representative of everyone who is on the project.
Did you show them my case vs low level authority plot?0 -
..and if they were so good, why are there still many hundreds of cases in Spain daily and part of Catalonia going into lockdown. People wearing masks tend to touch them with their hands. They are no panacea. In well controlled environments e.g. healthcare yes, but with Joe Public, really?felix said:In Spain masks have been compulsory in almost all public spaces for at least 2 months. From tomorrow here in Andalucia we must wear them in all public open and closed spaces, when driving with others than immediate family, on the beach, except when in the water, swimming pools the same, etc, etc, etc... and the daytime temperatures will stay above 30 degrees for another 2 months. Fail to comply and instant €100 fines. Why the f*** am I reading all of this bollocks on here of whingers and moaners about civil liberties. I can only quote the inimitable Malc G and call you all a load of useless t*****s! Get a life.
1 -
Do tell.Malmesbury said:
I have an idea about the Scottish data. But they couldn't be that stupid, could they?MaxPB said:
Wales has day of event level data. I've made a lot of suggestions including the ones we discussed, they seemed quite surprised as to the level of detail we'd like to work with and they also seemed ok with providing API documentation so we can grab and aggregate data for ourselves. Apparently the data issues with Scotland are political, they aren't providing that level of data to PHE who are the ultimate owners of the dashboard and data.Malmesbury said:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.LadyG said:
Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.
This is from their data...
The date_diff function seemed to flummox them quite badly as well which was a bit depressing. They didn't seem to understand the concept and it's utility. Hopefully it isn't representative of everyone who is on the project.
0 -
Yes that was exactly the the problem. "David Paton was largely doing his thing from England hospital numbers." but Andy_JS wrote "A lot of those cases may be from a long time ago. David Paton's figures were showing around 20 deaths a day the last time I checked."Malmesbury said:
David Paton was largely doing his thing from England hospital numbers.eristdoof said:
English hospital deaths. Andy_JS implied all UK deaths.Malmesbury said:
"A lot of those cases" were in Wales, which last time I looked is not in England.
Edit: Sorry, but an Apples and Oranges comparison really winds me up.0 -
I will ask and get an answer before going off on one. Too much bullshit in the COVID stuff without creating more.geoffw said:
Do tell.Malmesbury said:
I have an idea about the Scottish data. But they couldn't be that stupid, could they?MaxPB said:
Wales has day of event level data. I've made a lot of suggestions including the ones we discussed, they seemed quite surprised as to the level of detail we'd like to work with and they also seemed ok with providing API documentation so we can grab and aggregate data for ourselves. Apparently the data issues with Scotland are political, they aren't providing that level of data to PHE who are the ultimate owners of the dashboard and data.Malmesbury said:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.LadyG said:
Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.
This is from their data...
The date_diff function seemed to flummox them quite badly as well which was a bit depressing. They didn't seem to understand the concept and it's utility. Hopefully it isn't representative of everyone who is on the project.
0 -
eristdoof said:
Yes that was exactly the the problem. "David Paton was largely doing his thing from England hospital numbers." but Andy_JS wrote "A lot of those cases may be from a long time ago. David Paton's figures were showing around 20 deaths a day the last time I checked."Malmesbury said:
David Paton was largely doing his thing from England hospital numbers.eristdoof said:
English hospital deaths. Andy_JS implied all UK deaths.Malmesbury said:
"A lot of those cases" were in Wales, which last time I looked is not in England.
Edit: Sorry, but an Apples and Oranges comparison really winds me up.
The problem has been getting day-of numbers. Which are apparently available (now) for Wales. But not for Scotland.
Hence using the England Hospital numbers - and now the England All Settings numbers as reliable data set.0 -
A mixture of expecting banks to pump masses of fake ‘whatever it takes’ liquidity their way, and a rosy view of whatever virus/treatment/cure/vaccine news comes along.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
0 -
As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working classGallowgate said:
The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.HYUFD said:
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
We didn't fall into the trap of coming under the control of a Newcastle city region mayor. Still in the Land of the Prince Bishops!Gallowgate said:
Greater Newcastle isn’t in County Durham.SandyRentool said:
Don't mention Trinity Square! They demolished the Get Carter car park to make way for that!Gallowgate said:
The new Trinity Square is pretty nice, and obviously the area around the Sage and the Baltic. I used to live in Gateshead myself!SandyRentool said:
No. Gateshead town centre is grim because the Heed is so close to Newcastle.Gallowgate said:
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
A pub crawl on Gateshead High Street used to be an entertaining experience!
Gateshead will always be in the shadow of Newcastle, but unlike The Toon we are part of a First Class Cricket County.0 -
Those Michael Gove in Pret with no mask photos.
What exactly is going on in his gentleman's area??? Once you see it, you can't unsee it...0 -
(CNN) With more than 2,000 patients hospitalized and hundreds in Intensive Care Units, "Miami is now the epicenter of the pandemic," one infectious disease expert said.0
-
Definite trend over the last two weeks to move out of travel/leisure and into gold and online bookies - expecting a recession touched with a fall in the pound imoIanB2 said:
A mixture of expecting banks to pump masses of fake ‘whatever it takes’ liquidity their way, and a rosy view of whatever virus/treatment/cure/vaccine news comes along.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
0 -
The heatmap? Yes, they said they have something similar internally for decision making on local lockdowns, I asked them why they haven't surfaced that heatmap.Malmesbury said:
I have an idea about the Scottish data....MaxPB said:
Wales has day of event level data. I've made a lot of suggestions including the ones we discussed, they seemed quite surprised as to the level of detail we'd like to work with and they also seemed ok with providing API documentation so we can grab and aggregate data for ourselves. Apparently the data issues with Scotland are political, they aren't providing that level of data to PHE who are the ultimate owners of the dashboard and data.Malmesbury said:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.LadyG said:
Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.
This is from their data...
The date_diff function seemed to flummox them quite badly as well which was a bit depressing. They didn't seem to understand the concept and it's utility. Hopefully it isn't representative of everyone who is on the project.
Did you show them my case vs low level authority plot?0 -
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
0 -
I didn't see your edit. But there is lower level Scottish data, at the hospital board level here: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/documents/covid-19-data-by-nhs-board/covid-19-data-by-nhs-board/govscot:document/COVID-19+data+by+NHS+Board+14+June+2020.xlsxMalmesbury said:
I will ask and get an answer before going off on one. Too much bullshit in the COVID stuff without creating more.geoffw said:
Do tell.Malmesbury said:
I have an idea about the Scottish data. But they couldn't be that stupid, could they?MaxPB said:
Wales has day of event level data. I've made a lot of suggestions including the ones we discussed, they seemed quite surprised as to the level of detail we'd like to work with and they also seemed ok with providing API documentation so we can grab and aggregate data for ourselves. Apparently the data issues with Scotland are political, they aren't providing that level of data to PHE who are the ultimate owners of the dashboard and data.Malmesbury said:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.LadyG said:
Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.
This is from their data...
The date_diff function seemed to flummox them quite badly as well which was a bit depressing. They didn't seem to understand the concept and it's utility. Hopefully it isn't representative of everyone who is on the project.
0 -
If nothing else they remind people that we are in the midst of a pandemic and they make people stop and think before going through a typical Spanish kissy kissy greetings. In Alicante province we don’t, as yet, need to wear masks outside but out tonight 60% of people are wearing them anyway just walking around.partypoliticalorphan said:
..and if they were so good, why are there still many hundreds of cases in Spain daily and part of Catalonia going into lockdown. People wearing masks tend to touch them with their hands. They are no panacea. In well controlled environments e.g. healthcare yes, but with Joe Public, really?felix said:In Spain masks have been compulsory in almost all public spaces for at least 2 months. From tomorrow here in Andalucia we must wear them in all public open and closed spaces, when driving with others than immediate family, on the beach, except when in the water, swimming pools the same, etc, etc, etc... and the daytime temperatures will stay above 30 degrees for another 2 months. Fail to comply and instant €100 fines. Why the f*** am I reading all of this bollocks on here of whingers and moaners about civil liberties. I can only quote the inimitable Malc G and call you all a load of useless t*****s! Get a life.
0 -
Destinations still welcoming American tourists: Albania, Tunisia, Mexico, Turkey, Dominican Republic, Kosovo, Maldives, North Macedonia, Serbia.0
-
That makes me kind of proud? scared? that I created a similar thing to the one they are using.....MaxPB said:
The heatmap? Yes, they said they have something similar internally for decision making on local lockdowns, I asked them why they haven't surfaced that heatmap.Malmesbury said:
I have an idea about the Scottish data....MaxPB said:
Wales has day of event level data. I've made a lot of suggestions including the ones we discussed, they seemed quite surprised as to the level of detail we'd like to work with and they also seemed ok with providing API documentation so we can grab and aggregate data for ourselves. Apparently the data issues with Scotland are political, they aren't providing that level of data to PHE who are the ultimate owners of the dashboard and data.Malmesbury said:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.LadyG said:
Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.
This is from their data...
The date_diff function seemed to flummox them quite badly as well which was a bit depressing. They didn't seem to understand the concept and it's utility. Hopefully it isn't representative of everyone who is on the project.
Did you show them my case vs low level authority plot?
0 -
What happens if some of those firms they put the money into go pop?rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
0 -
Not sure if it’s been posted yet but the latest Gravis poll for Florida conducted yesterday is quite an eye opener !
Biden 53
Trump 43
I can’t remember the last time any poll for Florida showed a Democrat with a 10 point lead .0 -
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War1 -
Not sure I agree that masks in shops is a key point provided the laws are rolled back all the way afterwards, but @contrarian is exactly right that salami slices are how liberties rot and vanish.contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
- First the police started using the line 'accept a caution to deal with it quickly', so people signed on the dotted line.
- Then Jack Straw (I think it was he) decided that a caution would stay on your record until you were 99 years old.
- Then they created the vetting and barring scheme to put 10 million people on a database, and cautions plus any comments a chief constable deemed appropriate started coming up under enhanced Disclosure. Obviously recruiters would treat that as a black mark.
And suddenly thousands of people who had a minor discretion in their teens whilst drunk in town that they accepted a police caution for were denied the possibility of ever having a career in the caring professions.
It's how you create a truly poisonous system without necessarily intending to.1 -
and there was a proper plague in the years after the Civil War .LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War0 -
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1282899963274506241?s=20nico67 said:Not sure if it’s been posted yet but the latest Gravis poll for Florida conducted yesterday is quite an eye opener !
Biden 53
Trump 43
I can’t remember the last time any poll for Florida showed a Democrat with a 10 point lead .
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1282900258750701569?s=200 -
I don't think the constituency of middle class management consultants on 80k a year is large enough to worry about from a polling perspective.HYUFD said:
As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working classGallowgate said:
The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.HYUFD said:
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
But I do think it will change the media narrative, particularly among journalists who tend to socialise with said middle-class-non-job types. Seeing people go from that kind of salary and security to being on £78-ish a week universal credit will change a lot of people's opinions about how well the government is handling this crisis.
Furlough is incredibly popular. People like being paid 80% of their salary to do nothing. My guess is they will be a lot less keen when it's 80 quid a week.
It seems almost inevitable that this crisis will shift the overton window to the left, which can only benefit a moderate Labour party under Starmer.0 -
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War0 -
I am surprised that the USA's is not worse, frankly. Says something about us and Spain if that remains the case.eristdoof said:
This puts into context the claim earlier today by someone on this erstwhile forum, that Sweden's not as bad as the UK or USA.HYUFD said:
On a separate note, Sweden up to 549 deaths per head now and on current trends should overtake Italy on 579 deaths per head within a week to be 4th on deaths per head globally after Belgium, the UK and SpainLadyG said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
0 -
Indeed. All day people banging on about how small the bounce back was. In May we were still under full on lockdown.RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
When the July figures come out we'll start to get an indication of bouceback since businesses are reopening now. But May's figures? Meaningless!0 -
It does need to be moderate though and not of the student politics typekyf_100 said:
I don't think the constituency of middle class management consultants on 80k a year is large enough to worry about from a polling perspective.HYUFD said:
As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working classGallowgate said:
The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.HYUFD said:
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
But I do think it will change the media narrative, particularly among journalists who tend to socialise with said middle-class-non-job types. Seeing people go from that kind of salary and security to being on £78-ish a week universal credit will change a lot of people's opinions about how well the government is handling this crisis.
Furlough is incredibly popular. People like being paid 80% of their salary to do nothing. My guess is they will be a lot less keen when it's 80 quid a week.
It seems almost inevitable that this crisis will shift the overton window to the left, which can only benefit a moderate Labour party under Starmer.0 -
The news says it was expected too somewhat.RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War0 -
To all those that think wearing a mask is an imposition and uncomfortable, try wearing one for 24 days and nights continuously only removing it to eat and drink. When it’s that as the last line of defence to covid you are grateful you have one.0
-
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20
0 -
Surely, since the South Sea Bubble recession, which coincidently was just about to kick-off 300 years ago next month.LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War0 -
I wonder if Pritti Patel remembers the idea I suggested at a political gathering to deal with the legacy off Rotherham et al.MattW said:
Not sure I agree that masks in shops is a key point provided the laws are rolled back all the way afterwards, but @contrarian is exactly right that salami slices are how liberties rot and vanish.contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
- First the police started using the line 'accept a caution to deal with it quickly', so people signed on the dotted line.
- Then Jack Straw (I think it was he) decided that a caution would stay on your record until you were 99 years old.
- Then they created the vetting and barring scheme to put 10 million people on a database, and cautions plus any comments a chief constable deemed appropriate started coming up under enhanced Disclosure. Obviously recruiters would treat that as a black mark.
And suddenly thousands of people who had a minor discretion in their teens whilst drunk in town that they accepted a police caution for were denied the possibility of ever having a career in the caring professions.
It's how you create a truly poisonous system without necessarily intending to.0 -
Well we paid off that debt completely by 2015, so this will all be sorted by 2315 I guess.Benpointer said:
Surely, since the South Sea Bubble recession, which coincidently was just about to kick-off 300 years ago next month.LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/repayment-of-26-billion-historical-debt-to-be-completed-by-government0 -
I think a 20-25% fall is maybe worse than the S Sea Bubble?Benpointer said:
Surely, since the South Sea Bubble recession, which coincidently was just about to kick-off 300 years ago next month.LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
The S Sea Bubble saw a 15% fall
0 -
Given Gravis's absolute shite attempt at demographics weighting in their recent Arizona poll (in favour of Trump in that case) I would hold off on the headline number until seeing their weighting.nico67 said:Not sure if it’s been posted yet but the latest Gravis poll for Florida conducted yesterday is quite an eye opener !
Biden 53
Trump 43
I can’t remember the last time any poll for Florida showed a Democrat with a 10 point lead .
Their Arizona poll was weighted such that Trump won by 13 points in 20160 -
Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. All day people banging on about how small the bounce back was. In May we were still under full on lockdown.RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
When the July figures come out we'll start to get an indication of bouceback since businesses are reopening now. But May's figures? Meaningless!
https://twitter.com/polslet/status/1283025293515657217?s=200 -
The Tories are already a big spending party now so I doubt that will change, given lockdown is easing if people cannot find a job in their old profession as furlough ends they will just have to find a new one in another field.kyf_100 said:
I don't think the constituency of middle class management consultants on 80k a year is large enough to worry about from a polling perspective.HYUFD said:
As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working classGallowgate said:
The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.HYUFD said:
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
But I do think it will change the media narrative, particularly among journalists who tend to socialise with said middle-class-non-job types. Seeing people go from that kind of salary and security to being on £78-ish a week universal credit will change a lot of people's opinions about how well the government is handling this crisis.
Furlough is incredibly popular. People like being paid 80% of their salary to do nothing. My guess is they will be a lot less keen when it's 80 quid a week.
It seems almost inevitable that this crisis will shift the overton window to the left, which can only benefit a moderate Labour party under Starmer.
However in terms of the political divide the divide is primarily cultural not economic now anyway, a white working class voter in the Midlands is far more likely to be Tory than a wealthy middle class voter living in London0 -
Agreed. Hopefully more people will be interested in the welfare of the poor and how we can help people back into work and a lot less interested in which 200 year old statues are wrongthink and need to be pulled down.state_go_away said:
It does need to be moderate though and not of the student politics typekyf_100 said:
I don't think the constituency of middle class management consultants on 80k a year is large enough to worry about from a polling perspective.HYUFD said:
As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working classGallowgate said:
The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.HYUFD said:
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
But I do think it will change the media narrative, particularly among journalists who tend to socialise with said middle-class-non-job types. Seeing people go from that kind of salary and security to being on £78-ish a week universal credit will change a lot of people's opinions about how well the government is handling this crisis.
Furlough is incredibly popular. People like being paid 80% of their salary to do nothing. My guess is they will be a lot less keen when it's 80 quid a week.
It seems almost inevitable that this crisis will shift the overton window to the left, which can only benefit a moderate Labour party under Starmer.0 -
You cant win with just your base.HYUFD said:
As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working classGallowgate said:
The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.HYUFD said:
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
So optimistic. The thing about crusaders of such types, for good and ill, is that the job is never done and nothing gets in the way.kyf_100 said:
Agreed. Hopefully more people will be interested in the welfare of the poor and how we can help people back into work and a lot less interested in which 200 year old statues are wrongthink and need to be pulled down.state_go_away said:
It does need to be moderate though and not of the student politics typekyf_100 said:
I don't think the constituency of middle class management consultants on 80k a year is large enough to worry about from a polling perspective.HYUFD said:
As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working classGallowgate said:
The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.HYUFD said:
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
But I do think it will change the media narrative, particularly among journalists who tend to socialise with said middle-class-non-job types. Seeing people go from that kind of salary and security to being on £78-ish a week universal credit will change a lot of people's opinions about how well the government is handling this crisis.
Furlough is incredibly popular. People like being paid 80% of their salary to do nothing. My guess is they will be a lot less keen when it's 80 quid a week.
It seems almost inevitable that this crisis will shift the overton window to the left, which can only benefit a moderate Labour party under Starmer.0 -
I thought the SSB recession was estimated to be -20%.LadyG said:
I think a 20-25% fall is maybe worse than the S Sea Bubble?Benpointer said:
Surely, since the South Sea Bubble recession, which coincidently was just about to kick-off 300 years ago next month.LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
The S Sea Bubble saw a 15% fall
I'd predict we'll see something in the -15% range this year.0 -
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.LadyG said:
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=200 -
Gateshead's got bigger problems if the Metro centre goes under.Gallowgate said:
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
0 -
0
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Why would you compare Norway to the UK. Norway wasn't in lockdown.LadyG said:Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. All day people banging on about how small the bounce back was. In May we were still under full on lockdown.RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
When the July figures come out we'll start to get an indication of bouceback since businesses are reopening now. But May's figures? Meaningless!
https://twitter.com/polslet/status/1283025293515657217?s=20
The UK is a densely population urban nation with a population density of 1,010 people per square mile.
Norway is an isolated nation with a population density of 2 people and 3 reindeer per square mile.0 -
The USA likely to report over 1000 CV-19 death today for the first time in more than a month.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us0 -
Someone will buy the Metrocentre I think. It’s always busy, and probably a good investment for the right price.dixiedean said:
Gateshead's got bigger problems if the Metro centre goes under.Gallowgate said:
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
0 -
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.kle4 said:
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.LadyG said:
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
0 -
Not sure if HYUFD has noticed, but since we left the EU we've had this thing called the Rona. Its killed 50k people and turned the country upside down. As others are pointing out a large number of people are claiming or soon to be claiming UC for the first time as their jobs and in some cases half their industry is swept away.
Pre-Rona obsession with Essicksinnit Man's opinion of up Norf's views on free movement won't matter a toss compared to what has happened after Brexit. This is armageddon, and we haven't even faced into the fun that no deal could pour onto the fire.
A focus on how people actually live - rather than how he thinks they live - may help. Reading stats from a poll is very different from having the slightest idea of the lives and experiences of people which drive their answers in those polls1 -
I kind of agree. I reckon -15% to -20%, and it will be bloody. Ins'Allah I am wrongBenpointer said:
I thought the SSB recession was estimated to be -20%.LadyG said:
I think a 20-25% fall is maybe worse than the S Sea Bubble?Benpointer said:
Surely, since the South Sea Bubble recession, which coincidently was just about to kick-off 300 years ago next month.LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
The S Sea Bubble saw a 15% fall
I'd predict we'll see something in the -15% range this year.0 -
@HYUFD I’m in Epping tomorrow for work experience. I’ll be sure to ask the locals what they think of the parish council.0
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Markets were expecting 5.5% in May. They got 1.8%.RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War0 -
I assume that decimal place was just for a laugh?dixiedean said:
Markets were expecting 5.5% in May. They got 1.8%.RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War0 -
Norway locked down. They even closed their borders from the 16th of March.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would you compare Norway to the UK. Norway wasn't in lockdown.LadyG said:Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. All day people banging on about how small the bounce back was. In May we were still under full on lockdown.RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
When the July figures come out we'll start to get an indication of bouceback since businesses are reopening now. But May's figures? Meaningless!
https://twitter.com/polslet/status/1283025293515657217?s=20
The UK is a densely population urban nation with a population density of 1,010 people per square mile.
Norway is an isolated nation with a population density of 2 people and 3 reindeer per square mile.0 -
It wont be as bad as the English Civil War I think I can safely predict.LadyG said:
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.kle4 said:
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.LadyG said:
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us0 -
I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.
Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover
Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover0 -
It's down from the peak though so everything is fine.Benpointer said:The USA likely to report over 1000 CV-19 death today for the first time in more than a month.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us0 -
0
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It will happen on Friday apparently.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.
Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover
Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover0 -
I am simply agreeing with RCS's assessment of anyone who believes 4 months of a pandemic has permanently damaged our economy.contrarian said:
Yes but then you always have preferred insults to arguments.OllyT said:
All 3 sounds about right to me.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?0 -
Oh, believe me, I know plenty of champagne socialists. Plenty I work with fall into that category. All are privileged, most come from "good" familiies, almost all went to good schools and universities. Thye vote Labour because they can afford to.HYUFD said:
The Tories are already a big spending party now so I doubt that will change, given lockdown is easing if people cannot find a job in their old profession as furlough ends they will just have to find a new one in another field.kyf_100 said:
I don't think the constituency of middle class management consultants on 80k a year is large enough to worry about from a polling perspective.HYUFD said:
As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working classGallowgate said:
The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.HYUFD said:
Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.kyf_100 said:
I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.LadyG said:
I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concernPagan2 said:
shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionallyLadyG said:
Point taken.Pagan2 said:
I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the officeLadyG said:
Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other peoplePagan2 said:
There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do itLadyG said:
Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.Pagan2 said:
Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all areMaxPB said:
No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.rcs1000 said:
Yep. The world is going to change.MaxPB said:
I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.rcs1000 said:
In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?contrarian said:
The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payrollwilliamglenn said:
Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?contrarian said:
Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.contrarian said:
People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.Richard_Nabavi said:It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.
Why should they give another inch?
And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."
Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.
Which are you?
But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.
That's the nature of capitalism and change.
Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).
I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.
It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.
According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
But I do think it will change the media narrative, particularly among journalists who tend to socialise with said middle-class-non-job types. Seeing people go from that kind of salary and security to being on £78-ish a week universal credit will change a lot of people's opinions about how well the government is handling this crisis.
Furlough is incredibly popular. People like being paid 80% of their salary to do nothing. My guess is they will be a lot less keen when it's 80 quid a week.
It seems almost inevitable that this crisis will shift the overton window to the left, which can only benefit a moderate Labour party under Starmer.
However in terms of the political divide the divide is primarily cultural not economic now anyway, a white working class voter in the Midlands is far more likely to be Tory than a wealthy middle class voter living in London
But their noses wrinkle when they speak of the working class. The type wot drink Carling and go to Magaluf. Because they are *different* and *educated* and *better*. They never imagined they would be joining the dole queue. Mucking it with the proles.
It will be a rude awakening and I look forward to seeing what happens. As I have mentioned in other replies I hope it will result in our society paying more attention to issues like helping living and desperate unemployed people into work and less attention on which 200 year dead statue dude to cancel this week.1 -
90% down from its peak apparently*Alistair said:
It's down from the peak though so everything is fine.Benpointer said:The USA likely to report over 1000 CV-19 death today for the first time in more than a month.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
*Well if you believe that....0 -
One would hope so. However, "always busy" is perhaps a tad premature.Gallowgate said:
Someone will buy the Metrocentre I think. It’s always busy, and probably a good investment for the right price.dixiedean said:
Gateshead's got bigger problems if the Metro centre goes under.Gallowgate said:
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
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I drove past today and the car parks were pretty full for a Tuesday morning.dixiedean said:
One would hope so. However, "always busy" is perhaps a tad premature.Gallowgate said:
Someone will buy the Metrocentre I think. It’s always busy, and probably a good investment for the right price.dixiedean said:
Gateshead's got bigger problems if the Metro centre goes under.Gallowgate said:
Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.Pagan2 said:
People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the wholeLadyG said:
Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhereCorrectHorseBattery said:Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise
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Amidst all the mock doom and gloom about how the UK's economy didn't bounce back in May while it was locked down . . . just saw this breakdown and its frankly better than I'd expect!
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918368778092545
I wouldn't expect any growth in services while we're locked down, but nearly double-digit percentage growth in the other sectors? That's far better than I'd have expected! Its the fact services make up such a big part of the economy that means the overall figures are awful but then vast proportions of services were legally closed in May so what else should be expected?
That manufacturing etc were posting 8% gains in May though . . . I'm pleasantly surprised by that. Its depressing that nobody was covering this sectoral breakdown in the figures in the media today, that I saw at least.0 -
If we are doing Civil War re-enactment, can I be Col. Pride?rottenborough said:
It wont be as bad as the English Civil War I think I can safely predict.LadyG said:
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.kle4 said:
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.LadyG said:
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Will bring beer....0 -
Are you bringing a translator with you? Not for them, so that you have Essicksinnit translated into EnglishGallowgate said:@HYUFD I’m in Epping tomorrow for work experience. I’ll be sure to ask the locals what they think of the parish council.
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That's just Middlesbrough on a normal night.LadyG said:This is what a Depression looks like
https://twitter.com/StuDempster/status/1283100685853233153?s=200
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