Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sunak now level-pegging with Johnson on who would make the “be

123457

Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Except for how I didn't say that, it is exactly like saying that. I even explicitly said some horrendous outcomes are clearly worse than other..

    My point was for the man on the street there won't be a major difference between, say, 3.5 million unemployed and 3 million unemployed, or a 15% drop rather than a 10% drop. There is a difference, and it is very real for society, but in terms of personal experiences the flavours of catastrophe are by degree rather than type.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    Surely, since the South Sea Bubble recession, which coincidently was just about to kick-off 300 years ago next month.
    I think a 20-25% fall is maybe worse than the S Sea Bubble?

    The S Sea Bubble saw a 15% fall
    I think the Great Frost of 1709 was the previous biggest drop. GDP then being tricky to estimate of course.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    LadyG said:

    WTF is up with the UK data today? 1,200 new cases, 138 new deaths?!

    398 new cases (bulk in England). 138 new deaths (2 in Wales; the rest in England)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675

    LadyG said:
    That's just Middlesbrough on a normal night.
    Nope, there's no smog in any of those pictures.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    @HYUFD I’m in Epping tomorrow for work experience. I’ll be sure to ask the locals what they think of the parish council.

    Almost half the town council is LD now anyway, good luck with the work experience
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kyf_100 said:

    LadyG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.

    People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.

    Why should they give another inch?
    Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.

    And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
    Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.

    It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
    Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?
    The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payroll

    So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
    In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?

    Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."

    Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.

    Which are you?
    I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.
    Yep. The world is going to change.

    But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.

    That's the nature of capitalism and change.
    No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.
    Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all are
    Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.

    Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
    There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do it
    Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other people
    I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the office
    Point taken.

    I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
    shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionally
    I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concern
    I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.

    There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).

    I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.

    Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.

    It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.

    According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
    The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.
    As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working class
    You cant win with just your base.
    You certainly cannot win without them
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    I'm going to climb to the top of the Shard, it will take me about an hour, then I am going to jump off. At the end of the jump, I will be in exactly the same position I was just an hour before, so there's nothing to worry about.

    ;)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    LadyG said:
    That's just Middlesbrough on a normal night.
    Boro was busier than that last week when I took the twins for theory tests and the exam location isn't in the busiest part of town.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    eek said:

    LadyG said:
    That's just Middlesbrough on a normal night.
    Boro was busier than that last week when I took the twins for theory tests and the exam location isn't in the busiest part of town.
    Newcastle city centre, or at least Northumberland Street, was pretty busy when I was there last Sunday.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    LadyG said:
    That's just Middlesbrough on a normal night.
    Nope, there's no smog in any of those pictures.
    At least one of those buildings would have a crowd of people as it would be a parmo takeaway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    Not sure if HYUFD has noticed, but since we left the EU we've had this thing called the Rona. Its killed 50k people and turned the country upside down. As others are pointing out a large number of people are claiming or soon to be claiming UC for the first time as their jobs and in some cases half their industry is swept away.

    Pre-Rona obsession with Essicksinnit Man's opinion of up Norf's views on free movement won't matter a toss compared to what has happened after Brexit. This is armageddon, and we haven't even faced into the fun that no deal could pour onto the fire.

    A focus on how people actually live - rather than how he thinks they live - may help. Reading stats from a poll is very different from having the slightest idea of the lives and experiences of people which drive their answers in those polls

    Unless we get over 50% unemployment, which is very unlikely and in which case a far left or far right government becomes a strong possibility, most people will not be unemployed even despite this crisis and the cultural political divide will remain key.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Except for how I didn't say that, it is exactly like saying that. I even explicitly said some horrendous outcomes are clearly worse than other..

    My point was for the man on the street there won't be a major difference between, say, 3.5 million unemployed and 3 million unemployed, or a 15% drop rather than a 10% drop. There is a difference, and it is very real for society, but in terms of personal experiences the flavours of catastrophe are by degree rather than type.
    All because of a disease that has a death rate of about 0.3% , shows how crap and cowardly governments are these days. The mask directive tops it all
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    LadyG said:

    Potentially quite explosive

    twitter.com/singharj/status/1283094100158316546?s=20

    Why doesn’t the Government just publish it anyway ffs? Since when did they care what local councils think?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited July 2020

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    We beat the FFP busting spent a billion quid City to the the title with a net spend of 70 odd million under Klopp.

    I'm not worried.

    I mean who is reportedly top of the Saudi wishlist?

    Poch, who has never won a trophy as manager.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    HYUFD said:

    Not sure if HYUFD has noticed, but since we left the EU we've had this thing called the Rona. Its killed 50k people and turned the country upside down. As others are pointing out a large number of people are claiming or soon to be claiming UC for the first time as their jobs and in some cases half their industry is swept away.

    Pre-Rona obsession with Essicksinnit Man's opinion of up Norf's views on free movement won't matter a toss compared to what has happened after Brexit. This is armageddon, and we haven't even faced into the fun that no deal could pour onto the fire.

    A focus on how people actually live - rather than how he thinks they live - may help. Reading stats from a poll is very different from having the slightest idea of the lives and experiences of people which drive their answers in those polls

    Unless we get over 50% unemployment, which is very unlikely and in which case a far left or far right government becomes a strong possibility, most people will not be unemployed even despite this crisis and the cultural political divide will remain key.
    We wont get that officially but with furlough and public sector non -jobs protected then effectively it will be close to that . all for a disease slightly worse than flu in terms of death rates .
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.

    Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.

    We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    Because they are linked to people behind the Khashoggi murder.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52465137
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    rkrkrk said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.

    Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.

    We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
    Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.

    It's going to be L. You read it here first
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    Because they are linked to people behind the Khashoggi murder.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52465137
    Allegedly.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    LadyG said:

    Potentially quite explosive

    twitter.com/singharj/status/1283094100158316546?s=20

    Why doesn’t the Government just publish it anyway ffs? Since when did they care what local councils think?
    I can guess what the Councils are worried about and why the government would be concerned too.

    When the town/city level data was released recently showing the countries with the highest cases - Leicester, Bradford etc - certain people immediately started associating a 'common denominator' between those towns.

    Postcode level data and I can imagine people doing that even more.

    Maybe that's not a bad thing. There certainly seems to be cultural issues or other issues in play here and addressing them honestly is the ideal solution . . . but I can understand why a bit of sensitivity rather than rushing headlong into publishing is being asked for here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    I'm going to climb to the top of the Shard, it will take me about an hour, then I am going to jump off. At the end of the jump, I will be in exactly the same position I was just an hour before, so there's nothing to worry about.

    ;)
    Make it easier on yourself, and take the lift up.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    Because they are linked to people behind the Khashoggi murder.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52465137
    Allegedly.
    The whole idea that the Premier League can tell and judge goodies from baddies is laughable frankly .
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    I'm going to climb to the top of the Shard, it will take me about an hour, then I am going to jump off. At the end of the jump, I will be in exactly the same position I was just an hour before, so there's nothing to worry about.

    ;)
    If you took the lift down, that would be true.

    PS Good luck with trying to jump off the top of The Shard... you'll have to climb up the outside.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    Because they are linked to people behind the Khashoggi murder.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52465137
    Allegedly.
    Oh don't play that game, you're better than that surely?

    The Saudis are evil - this has nothing to do with the Geordies. Some things are more serious than football.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Except for how I didn't say that, it is exactly like saying that. I even explicitly said some horrendous outcomes are clearly worse than other..

    My point was for the man on the street there won't be a major difference between, say, 3.5 million unemployed and 3 million unemployed, or a 15% drop rather than a 10% drop. There is a difference, and it is very real for society, but in terms of personal experiences the flavours of catastrophe are by degree rather than type.
    All because of a disease that has a death rate of about 0.3% , shows how crap and cowardly governments are these days. The mask directive tops it all
    The death rate is under 0.5% for under 50s but up to 20%+ for over 80s

    https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    Because they are linked to people behind the Khashoggi murder.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52465137
    Allegedly.
    The whole idea that the Premier League can tell and judge goodies from baddies is laughable frankly .
    They can’t. The PIF is ultimately a separate entity from the Saudi Government so it will go through, and the North East as a whole will benefit. It’s sorely needed.

    I notice that people haven’t been whinging about PIF investment in BT, amongst hundreds of others.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Breaking: Maxwell pleads not guilty, refused bail.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    LadyG said:

    rkrkrk said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.

    Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.

    We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
    Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.

    It's going to be L. You read it here first
    8% growth during lockdown when you exclude the service sector that was largely legally barred from trading.

    That's pretty V shaped in my eyes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    LadyG said:

    Potentially quite explosive

    twitter.com/singharj/status/1283094100158316546?s=20

    Why doesn’t the Government just publish it anyway ffs? Since when did they care what local councils think?
    I can guess what the Councils are worried about and why the government would be concerned too.

    When the town/city level data was released recently showing the countries with the highest cases - Leicester, Bradford etc - certain people immediately started associating a 'common denominator' between those towns.

    Postcode level data and I can imagine people doing that even more.

    Maybe that's not a bad thing. There certainly seems to be cultural issues or other issues in play here and addressing them honestly is the ideal solution . . . but I can understand why a bit of sensitivity rather than rushing headlong into publishing is being asked for here.
    ... which does you credit.

    Blaming the victims is always a tempting cop-out.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    All billionaires have blood on their hands. The criticism of the Newcastle takeover is based on jealousy and nothing else.

    It’s entirely arbitrary.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise

    Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhere
    People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the whole
    Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.
    Gateshead's got bigger problems if the Metro centre goes under.
    Someone will buy the Metrocentre I think. It’s always busy, and probably a good investment for the right price.
    One would hope so. However, "always busy" is perhaps a tad premature.
    I wonder if there is any writing on the wall for these big frothy shopping centres?

    When I ran the numbers a few months ago it was a surprise to find that my local Macarthur Glen turns over considerably more per sqft than Meadowhall.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Our total GDP figure hides a large fall in GDP per head figures. When you look at how many immigrants have come here over the past 15 years you may see the true scale of the problem

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    Because they are linked to people behind the Khashoggi murder.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52465137
    Allegedly.
    Oh don't play that game, you're better than that surely?

    The Saudis are evil - this has nothing to do with the Geordies. Some things are more serious than football.
    Well your party in Government seems happy to call them our allies.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    "Councils are concerned that the government's plan to publish postcode-level data could lead to certain neighbourhoods being stigmatised."
    This kneejerk "don't tell them" attitude is really abhorrent. We seem to have the spread of the virus under control because of individual behaviour which is informed by how the infection is spreading locally. Lack of transparency will only nurture suspicion and anxiety and inhibit sensible responses.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    A new owner spending millions is no guarantee of success.

    Just look at Everton, since Moshiri took over he's invested £350 million and they are still shite.

    Their high point in recent seasons was celebrating a throw in at Anfield (with a flare) only to see Divock Origi do this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnmRE0-M270
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    All billionaires have blood on their hands. The criticism of the Newcastle takeover is based on jealousy and nothing else.

    It’s entirely arbitrary.
    No, when the Saudis were sniffing around Spurs a few years ago I was desperate for them to move on. I know Liverpool fans who felt the same when they were looking into taking over from Hicks and Gillet.

    You're welcome to the blood money, but every success you have is built on the deaths of children in Yemen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    All billionaires have blood on their hands. The criticism of the Newcastle takeover is based on jealousy and nothing else.

    It’s entirely arbitrary.
    Explain to me how John W Henry has blood on his hands?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    That's more honest than saying "Allegedly" in reply to Khasoggi.

    Disreputable and disgusting frankly, but honest at least. Don't sell your soul to the devil, its not worth it.

    “For Newcastle United? Why Gallow, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Newcastle United!”
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    edited July 2020

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    Because they are linked to people behind the Khashoggi murder.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52465137
    Allegedly.
    Oh don't play that game, you're better than that surely?

    The Saudis are evil - this has nothing to do with the Geordies. Some things are more serious than football.
    Well your party in Government seems happy to call them our allies.
    I am sure the Saudis are baddies in this but the Premier League is so far removed from Corinthians turning down penalties in 1860 whatever because it was bad form that frankly its more insulting that the Premier League is held up to be something so pure it needs protecting from evil - I mean if the best objection is somebody was involved in a diplomatic murder then didn't the yanks openly assassinate a top Iranian only this year (seems a eon ago with the plague )
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    LadyG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It really is an indictment of the crass incompetence of the government's messaging that the moderate and completely sensible (albeit a bit tardy) decision to mandate masks in shops has become a political controversy, for no good reason whatsoever. It's an object lesson in how to screw up something simple.

    People have become very suspicious of this government. Liberties which were taken have not been returned.

    Why should they give another inch?
    Maybe because helping reduce the spread of a fatal disease is not something you do simply as a favour to Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.

    And as for liberties, it is quite extraordinarily silly to regard the tiny and temporary inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain limited circumstances as something to get het up about. In the overall scheme of government interference in our lives, this is as minor as anything you'll ever get.
    Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.

    It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
    Do you think having to wear a seatbelt is an infringement on your liberties?
    The government that brought that rule in hadn;t just imposed a house arrest on its citizens four months, and hadn't destroyed its own economy permanently, or moved 11 million workers onto its payroll

    So I credited them with a modicum of sense.
    In what way is the UK economy permanently damaged?

    Don't forget that it was just over ten years from the end of the Second World War - when government debt-to-GDP was 350%, millions were homeless, and much of the Britain's production was destroyed - to "you've never had it so good."

    Anyone who thinks our economy has been permanently damaged by four months of economic activity 25% below normal levels is deranged, deluded or retarded.

    Which are you?
    I think that city centres won't look the same even after we've seen the back of this. A large proportion of offices are going to be smaller and that means fewer cafes, bars and pubs for those workers who do come into the office on a regular basis.
    Yep. The world is going to change.

    But the world is always changing. People doing more working from home and from villages and from small towns is going to be good for cafes and bars and restaraunts there, even as it is bad for ones in Broadgate Circus.

    That's the nature of capitalism and change.
    No, I think WFH is making people less social and less inclined to go out and spend money. It's making us a nation of bores who stay in and drink wine and watch Netflix in comfy pajamas. It's just sad.
    Don't tar us all with your brush, it will give me opportunities to socialise I didnt have when I commuted....just because you are a sourpuss doesn't mean we all are
    Who are you going to socialize with, and where? Everyone will be unemployed, students won’t go to uni, half the pubs will be shuttered.

    Your ‘socializing’ will consist of sharing a four pack of Aldi cider, on a bench. At a distance.
    There are many activities I want to do that I can't because commuting takes my money and time. Such as taking back up martial arts again. Sadly while commuting I don't get home in time to go do it
    Good luck on doing martial arts during a plague spread by heavy breathing near other people
    I did say when the lockdown ends, if I am forced back to the office then no socialising for me as there hasnt been for the last 10 years. Complaints from people like you about what lockdown has cost like going to restaurants and bars are frankly laughable.....Most of the country can't actually afford to before lockdown except infrequently in any case.....instead we slog to work at 6am eat at our desks return home around 8pm and hope the money lasts till the end of the month. For a treat we may order a takeaway once maybe twice a month or buy some cheap beer at a supermarket. Locked in due to lack of money is normal life. The only real difference lockdown has made for me is I dont have to get up early and come home late and don't have to deal with obnoxious people I can't stand at the office
    Point taken.

    I still fear for the wider economy, and all of us, if the leisure/entertainment industry collapses
    shrugs it is my pet hate on here. Most that post here aren't struggling, they either are high up in the hierarchy of companies or run companies themselves. Few are struggling at the end of the month or dreading the unexpected bill like a car repair or boiler repair. They see things through their bubble. I try and puncture it occasionally
    I am not struggling - but I have plenty of friends and relatives that are in desperate trouble already. Hence, perhaps, my concern
    I had many friends and relatives like that pre brexit and pre corona no one gave a toss about them then.

    I'm talking about people having mental breakdowns because of lockdown, or actually dying from covid-19
    There are many people who have lived the last 20 years in what you describe as lockdown all they have is home and work because they cant afford anything else. They managed if people are really killing themselves over three months of lockdown which tbh I doubt then they must be quite weak minded
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Amidst all the mock doom and gloom about how the UK's economy didn't bounce back in May while it was locked down . . . just saw this breakdown and its frankly better than I'd expect!
    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918368778092545

    I wouldn't expect any growth in services while we're locked down, but nearly double-digit percentage growth in the other sectors? That's far better than I'd have expected! Its the fact services make up such a big part of the economy that means the overall figures are awful but then vast proportions of services were legally closed in May so what else should be expected?

    That manufacturing etc were posting 8% gains in May though . . . I'm pleasantly surprised by that. Its depressing that nobody was covering this sectoral breakdown in the figures in the media today, that I saw at least.

    Its growth from the largest drop in peacetime, though, isn't it? It isn't hard to manufacture 8% gains after you've had record double digit drops in the previous months.

    It was literally some factories (which were not in fact mandated closed - remember 'go to work if you can't work from home' - but had largely closed temporarily), and construction sites, getting going again.

    I am very concerned about the economy. I agree with @SouthamObserver that the Govt is going to have to inject an awful lot more cash into pretty much every sector. Retail needs a real boost. Leisure and Tourism too. Just back from our harbour, a few people outside restaurants - but not enough for most of the businesses to survive.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    @TheScreamingEagles we don’t want millions anyway. We want an owner who actually cares about maximising the potential of the club and the local area. An owner who will actually invest to further the club. I wouldn’t care if the new owners only spent what the club generated, and maximised our commercial potential.

    The new owners have promised just that. Mike Ashley has sucked the soul out of the club and the city and we want it back.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    MaxPB said:


    No, when the Saudis were sniffing around Spurs a few years ago I was desperate for them to move on. I know Liverpool fans who felt the same when they were looking into taking over from Hicks and Gillet.

    You're welcome to the blood money, but every success you have is built on the deaths of children in Yemen.

    Heck, when China were talking about buying Liverpool from Hicks and Gillette I was hoping it wouldn't happen and would have rather gone into administration.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    All billionaires have blood on their hands. The criticism of the Newcastle takeover is based on jealousy and nothing else.

    It’s entirely arbitrary.
    Explain to me how John W Henry has blood on his hands?
    Or Joe Lewis, or the Glazers for that matter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Mortimer said:

    Amidst all the mock doom and gloom about how the UK's economy didn't bounce back in May while it was locked down . . . just saw this breakdown and its frankly better than I'd expect!
    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918368778092545

    I wouldn't expect any growth in services while we're locked down, but nearly double-digit percentage growth in the other sectors? That's far better than I'd have expected! Its the fact services make up such a big part of the economy that means the overall figures are awful but then vast proportions of services were legally closed in May so what else should be expected?

    That manufacturing etc were posting 8% gains in May though . . . I'm pleasantly surprised by that. Its depressing that nobody was covering this sectoral breakdown in the figures in the media today, that I saw at least.

    Its growth from the largest drop in peacetime, though, isn't it? It isn't hard to manufacture 8% gains after you've had record double digit drops in the previous months.

    It was literally some factories (which were not in fact mandated closed - remember 'go to work if you can't work from home' - but had largely closed temporarily), and construction sites, getting going again.

    I am very concerned about the economy. I agree with @SouthamObserver that the Govt is going to have to inject an awful lot more cash into pretty much every sector. Retail needs a real boost. Leisure and Tourism too. Just back from our harbour, a few people outside restaurants - but not enough for most of the businesses to survive.
    And garden centres also reopened in May
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    That's more honest than saying "Allegedly" in reply to Khasoggi.

    Disreputable and disgusting frankly, but honest at least. Don't sell your soul to the devil, its not worth it.

    “For Newcastle United? Why Gallow, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Newcastle United!”
    What point are you making?

    I have no influence in who Mike Ashley sells Newcastle United to.

    The fact he is selling it, finally, is news to rejoice to.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    eek said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.



    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:

    Our total GDP figure hides a large fall in GDP per head figures. When you look at how many immigrants have come here over the past 15 years you may see the true scale of the problem

    Our population has increased by approximately 10% since 2003 whilst until recently GDP had increased by more than 25% so per capita we were better off.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    All billionaires have blood on their hands. The criticism of the Newcastle takeover is based on jealousy and nothing else.

    It’s entirely arbitrary.
    All billionaires?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    @TheScreamingEagles we don’t want millions anyway. We want an owner who actually cares about maximising the potential of the club and the local area. An owner who will actually invest to further the club. I wouldn’t care if the new owners only spent what the club generated, and maximised our commercial potential.

    The new owners have promised just that. Mike Ashley has sucked the soul out of the club and the city and we want it back.

    You think the Saudis are going to give a damn about the soul of the club? Or investing in the club?

    You think the Saudis are altruistic or have your best intentions at heart?

    Ashley may be bad but seriously the Saudis could be 10x worse.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Amidst all the mock doom and gloom about how the UK's economy didn't bounce back in May while it was locked down . . . just saw this breakdown and its frankly better than I'd expect!
    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918368778092545

    I wouldn't expect any growth in services while we're locked down, but nearly double-digit percentage growth in the other sectors? That's far better than I'd have expected! Its the fact services make up such a big part of the economy that means the overall figures are awful but then vast proportions of services were legally closed in May so what else should be expected?

    That manufacturing etc were posting 8% gains in May though . . . I'm pleasantly surprised by that. Its depressing that nobody was covering this sectoral breakdown in the figures in the media today, that I saw at least.

    Its growth from the largest drop in peacetime, though, isn't it? It isn't hard to manufacture 8% gains after you've had record double digit drops in the previous months.

    It was literally some factories (which were not in fact mandated closed - remember 'go to work if you can't work from home' - but had largely closed temporarily), and construction sites, getting going again.

    I am very concerned about the economy. I agree with @SouthamObserver that the Govt is going to have to inject an awful lot more cash into pretty much every sector. Retail needs a real boost. Leisure and Tourism too. Just back from our harbour, a few people outside restaurants - but not enough for most of the businesses to survive.
    And garden centres also reopened in May
    Small to medium manufacturers known to me are carefully husbanding what business they know to expect to cover themselves until whatever is their next annual peak period.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    @TheScreamingEagles we don’t want millions anyway. We want an owner who actually cares about maximising the potential of the club and the local area. An owner who will actually invest to further the club. I wouldn’t care if the new owners only spent what the club generated, and maximised our commercial potential.

    The new owners have promised just that. Mike Ashley has sucked the soul out of the club and the city and we want it back.

    You think the Saudis are going to give a damn about the soul of the club? Or investing in the club?

    You think the Saudis are altruistic or have your best intentions at heart?

    Ashley may be bad but seriously the Saudis could be 10x worse.
    Worse in what way? There is literally no way they could be worse.

    You clearly have zero understanding of the current state of Newcastle United.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    That's more honest than saying "Allegedly" in reply to Khasoggi.

    Disreputable and disgusting frankly, but honest at least. Don't sell your soul to the devil, its not worth it.

    “For Newcastle United? Why Gallow, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Newcastle United!”
    What point are you making?

    I have no influence in who Mike Ashley sells Newcastle United to.

    The fact he is selling it, finally, is news to rejoice to.
    I'd honestly rather have Ashley than the house of Saud. They are despicable, blood thirsty dictators killing women and children in Yemen because if a centuries old blood fued. It's truly awful.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    All billionaires have blood on their hands. The criticism of the Newcastle takeover is based on jealousy and nothing else.

    It’s entirely arbitrary.
    Explain to me how John W Henry has blood on his hands?
    Or Joe Lewis, or the Glazers for that matter.
    Man U fans spitting blood...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    LadyG said:
    Data by local authority down to Local Authority ward are visible in table 6 here, for deaths. The Teir 2 data on number of cases are not distributed to local authorities.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand31may2020#middle-layer-super-output-areas
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    That's more honest than saying "Allegedly" in reply to Khasoggi.

    Disreputable and disgusting frankly, but honest at least. Don't sell your soul to the devil, its not worth it.

    “For Newcastle United? Why Gallow, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Newcastle United!”
    What point are you making?

    I have no influence in who Mike Ashley sells Newcastle United to.

    The fact he is selling it, finally, is news to rejoice to.
    I'd honestly rather have Ashley than the house of Saud. They are despicable, blood thirsty dictators killing women and children in Yemen because if a centuries old blood fued. It's truly awful.
    Fascinating.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675

    @TheScreamingEagles we don’t want millions anyway. We want an owner who actually cares about maximising the potential of the club and the local area. An owner who will actually invest to further the club. I wouldn’t care if the new owners only spent what the club generated, and maximised our commercial potential.

    The new owners have promised just that. Mike Ashley has sucked the soul out of the club and the city and we want it back.

    You think the Saudis are going to give a damn about the soul of the club? Or investing in the club?

    You think the Saudis are altruistic or have your best intentions at heart?

    Ashley may be bad but seriously the Saudis could be 10x worse.
    Worse in what way? There is literally no way they could be worse.

    You clearly have zero understanding of the current state of Newcastle United.
    How about if there's a revolution in Saudi Arabia and/or a collapse in oil revenues?

    You won't have a pot to piss in that scenario and then you go the way of Bury.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise

    Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhere
    People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the whole
    Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.
    you mistake me for some one that cares....gateshead was purely an example any run down area that has been hollowed out by the drain of people to the southeast would do
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    eek said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Our total GDP figure hides a large fall in GDP per head figures. When you look at how many immigrants have come here over the past 15 years you may see the true scale of the problem

    Beware of looking at charts in USD but yes GDP per capita has struggled to get back to pre-2008 levels.

    Good job we have had those economic geniuses the Tories in charge, eh?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    and if Liverpool or Man United ever get bought out by the Chinese or the Saudis you won't hear peep of protest from the fans.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    LadyG said:

    rkrkrk said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.

    Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.

    We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
    Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.

    It's going to be L. You read it here first
    Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    I repeat, I assume that all those on their high horse about the Newcastle takeover will never use any of the following companies again:
    • BT
    • EE
    • TicketMasters
    • Carnival
    • Disney
    • Facebook
    • BP
    • Boeing
    • Shell
    • Total
    • Citigroup
    to name just a few. All that PIF has stakes in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    OllyT said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    and if Liverpool or Man United ever get bought out by the Chinese or the Saudis you won't hear peep of protest from the fans.
    There were protests from Liverpool fans when the China Investment Group started sniffing around Liverpool in 2010.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Maxwell pleads not guilty, refused bail.

    Trial scheduled to last 3 weeks to begin July 21, 2021. Two alleged victims testified - one in person, one in writing - against granting bail.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Because I'm not using the Underground, in effect I've got a £4000 pay rise

    Until you get fired, because WFH collapses the economies of big cities, leading to an enormous Depression everywhere
    People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the whole
    Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.
    you mistake me for some one that cares....gateshead was purely an example any run down area that has been hollowed out by the drain of people to the southeast would do
    Well you clearly haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    That's more honest than saying "Allegedly" in reply to Khasoggi.

    Disreputable and disgusting frankly, but honest at least. Don't sell your soul to the devil, its not worth it.

    “For Newcastle United? Why Gallow, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Newcastle United!”
    What point are you making?

    I have no influence in who Mike Ashley sells Newcastle United to.

    The fact he is selling it, finally, is news to rejoice to.
    I'd honestly rather have Ashley than the house of Saud. They are despicable, blood thirsty dictators killing women and children in Yemen because if a centuries old blood fued. It's truly awful.
    Fascinating.
    Your denial of what your prospective owners are responsible for is quite disappointing. Newcastle is an honourable football club with great fans and traditions, you will wipe away all of that good will by taking the blood money. Your entertainment is going to be funded by dead children murdered by Saudi weapons. Accept it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    Because they are linked to people behind the Khashoggi murder.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52465137
    Allegedly.
    Oh don't play that game, you're better than that surely?

    The Saudis are evil - this has nothing to do with the Geordies. Some things are more serious than football.
    Well your party in Government seems happy to call them our allies.
    As were yours the last time you were in Government, and barring some sort of Corbynite insurgency, as they will the next time they're in Government.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878

    I love how @Pagan2 claims to speak for the working class of London and yet reccomends that they leave their family, friends, and support network behind and move 270 miles north, as only an out-of-touch person would.

    I never claimed to speak for the working class of london, I dont live in london. I claim to speak some truths to asses like you on your six figure salaries feeling all secure most of the time who go and say crap like no one would be bothered by a 1% extra tax because they very much would this is why no one votes lib dem because you are all pampered little c**ts
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    Because they are linked to people behind the Khashoggi murder.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52465137
    Allegedly.
    Oh don't play that game, you're better than that surely?

    The Saudis are evil - this has nothing to do with the Geordies. Some things are more serious than football.
    Well your party in Government seems happy to call them our allies.
    As were yours the last time you were in Government, and barring some sort of Corbynite insurgency, as they will the next time they're in Government.
    That is my point...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    That's more honest than saying "Allegedly" in reply to Khasoggi.

    Disreputable and disgusting frankly, but honest at least. Don't sell your soul to the devil, its not worth it.

    “For Newcastle United? Why Gallow, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Newcastle United!”
    What point are you making?

    I have no influence in who Mike Ashley sells Newcastle United to.

    The fact he is selling it, finally, is news to rejoice to.
    I'd honestly rather have Ashley than the house of Saud. They are despicable, blood thirsty dictators killing women and children in Yemen because if a centuries old blood fued. It's truly awful.
    Fascinating.
    Your denial of what your prospective owners are responsible for is quite disappointing. Newcastle is an honourable football club with great fans and traditions, you will wipe away all of that good will by taking the blood money. Your entertainment is going to be funded by dead children murdered by Saudi weapons. Accept it.
    PIF has a stake in Disney and @Philip_Thompson is happy to entertain his kids with their content.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Trump is so desperate now he’s having a Rose Garden briefing to take credit for some encouraging news re a vaccine in the USA.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I repeat, I assume that all those on their high horse about the Newcastle takeover will never use any of the following companies again:

    • BT
    • EE
    • TicketMasters
    • Carnival
    • Disney
    • Facebook
    • BP
    • Boeing
    • Shell
    • Total
    • Citigroup
    to name just a few. All that PIF has stakes in.
    I don't consider many of those businesses to be reputable indeed. PIF may have small stakes in some of those too but not ownership, there's a difference between investment and ownership.

    And there's no reason why you can't condemn the Saudis while happily supporting your team. You can distinguish between your club and Mike Ashley afterall can't you? Do you feel an overwhelming urge to defend Mike Ashley and to lavishly praise him and brush off any criticism? The Saudis are no better than Mike Ashley, they're worse than him.

    Love your club I respect that 100%, but there's no need to love either Ashley or the Saudis.
  • Pagan2 said:

    I love how @Pagan2 claims to speak for the working class of London and yet reccomends that they leave their family, friends, and support network behind and move 270 miles north, as only an out-of-touch person would.

    I never claimed to speak for the working class of london, I dont live in london. I claim to speak some truths to asses like you on your six figure salaries feeling all secure most of the time who go and say crap like no one would be bothered by a 1% extra tax because they very much would this is why no one votes lib dem because you are all pampered little c**ts
    Do you kiss your mother with that mouth?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Maxwell pleads not guilty, refused bail.

    Trial scheduled to last 3 weeks to begin July 21,
    2021. Two alleged victims testified - one in person,
    one in writing - against granting bail.
    The “she’s already done a deal with the FBI who have been talking to her for a while” theory has taken a bit of a knock.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816

    I repeat, I assume that all those on their high horse about the Newcastle takeover will never use any of the following companies again:

    • BT
    • EE
    • TicketMasters
    • Carnival
    • Disney
    • Facebook
    • BP
    • Boeing
    • Shell
    • Total
    • Citigroup
    to name just a few. All that PIF has stakes in.
    To be honest PIF must be a bit naff if they invested in BT and Carnival!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    That's more honest than saying "Allegedly" in reply to Khasoggi.

    Disreputable and disgusting frankly, but honest at least. Don't sell your soul to the devil, its not worth it.

    “For Newcastle United? Why Gallow, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Newcastle United!”
    What point are you making?

    I have no influence in who Mike Ashley sells Newcastle United to.

    The fact he is selling it, finally, is news to rejoice to.
    I'd honestly rather have Ashley than the house of Saud. They are despicable, blood thirsty dictators killing women and children in Yemen because if a centuries old blood fued. It's truly awful.
    Fascinating.
    Your denial of what your prospective owners are responsible for is quite disappointing. Newcastle is an honourable football club with great fans and traditions, you will wipe away all of that good will by taking the blood money. Your entertainment is going to be funded by dead children murdered by Saudi weapons. Accept it.
    PIF has a stake in Disney and @Philip_Thompson is happy to entertain his kids with their content.
    Absolutely I am. I like Disney. I respect Disney. I'm not defending the Saudis because of Disney though. Oh and incidentally we're talking an investment into Disney made on the free market and that makes up a fraction of one percent of Disney shares - are Newcastle United going to be a fraction of one percent owned by the Saudis?

    Why can't you divorce your feelings for your club with your feelings for the Saudis?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I repeat, I assume that all those on their high horse about the Newcastle takeover will never use any of the following companies again:

    • BT
    • EE
    • TicketMasters
    • Carnival
    • Disney
    • Facebook
    • BP
    • Boeing
    • Shell
    • Total
    • Citigroup
    to name just a few. All that PIF has stakes in.
    I don't consider many of those businesses to be reputable indeed. PIF may have small stakes in some of those too but not ownership, there's a difference between investment and ownership.

    And there's no reason why you can't condemn the Saudis while happily supporting your team. You can distinguish between your club and Mike Ashley afterall can't you? Do you feel an overwhelming urge to defend Mike Ashley and to lavishly praise him and brush off any criticism? The Saudis are no better than Mike Ashley, they're worse than him.

    Love your club I respect that 100%, but there's no need to love either Ashley or the Saudis.
    I don’t love the Saudis. Far from it, but I have zero influence on the sale. I would much prefer that we had a German system where fan ownership accounted for 51% of every club but unfortunately that is not the case.

    People are just jealous that Newcastle is finally getting the investment it deserves.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited July 2020

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    That's more honest than saying "Allegedly" in reply to Khasoggi.

    Disreputable and disgusting frankly, but honest at least. Don't sell your soul to the devil, its not worth it.

    “For Newcastle United? Why Gallow, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Newcastle United!”
    What point are you making?

    I have no influence in who Mike Ashley sells Newcastle United to.

    The fact he is selling it, finally, is news to rejoice to.
    I'd honestly rather have Ashley than the house of Saud. They are despicable, blood thirsty dictators killing women and children in Yemen because if a centuries old blood fued. It's truly awful.
    Fascinating.
    Your denial of what your prospective owners are responsible for is quite disappointing. Newcastle is an honourable football club with great fans and traditions, you will wipe away all of that good will by taking the blood money. Your entertainment is going to be funded by dead children murdered by Saudi weapons. Accept it.
    PIF has a stake in Disney and @Philip_Thompson is happy to entertain his kids with their content.
    That's up to him and the board of Disney. You're a Newcastle fan, you'll have to live with knowing that your club is profiting from children being butchered by your club's owners. That's on you.

    Also, I'd put mega sanctions on Saudi money and make them forced sellers of shareholdings in UK companies, I'd hope that others would do the same. There is no place for their blood money.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    That's more honest than saying "Allegedly" in reply to Khasoggi.

    Disreputable and disgusting frankly, but honest at least. Don't sell your soul to the devil, its not worth it.

    “For Newcastle United? Why Gallow, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Newcastle United!”
    What point are you making?

    I have no influence in who Mike Ashley sells Newcastle United to.

    The fact he is selling it, finally, is news to rejoice to.
    I'd honestly rather have Ashley than the house of Saud. They are despicable, blood thirsty dictators killing women and children in Yemen because if a centuries old blood fued. It's truly awful.
    Fascinating.
    Your denial of what your prospective owners are responsible for is quite disappointing. Newcastle is an honourable football club with great fans and traditions, you will wipe away all of that good will by taking the blood money. Your entertainment is going to be funded by dead children murdered by Saudi weapons. Accept it.
    PIF has a stake in Disney and @Philip_Thompson is happy to entertain his kids with their content.
    Absolutely I am. I like Disney. I respect Disney. I'm not defending the Saudis because of Disney though. Oh and incidentally we're talking an investment into Disney made on the free market and that makes up a fraction of one percent of Disney shares - are Newcastle United going to be a fraction of one percent owned by the Saudis?

    Why can't you divorce your feelings for your club with your feelings for the Saudis?
    Well PIF is going to own 80% of Newcastle United.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    rkrkrk said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.

    Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.

    We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
    Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.

    It's going to be L. You read it here first
    Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
    Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.

    It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.

    I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.

    No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.

    Feels L-shaped to me.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    Pagan2 said:

    I love how @Pagan2 claims to speak for the working class of London and yet reccomends that they leave their family, friends, and support network behind and move 270 miles north, as only an out-of-touch person would.

    I never claimed to speak for the working class of london, I dont live in london. I claim to speak some truths to asses like you on your six figure salaries feeling all secure most of the time who go and say crap like no one would be bothered by a 1% extra tax because they very much would this is why no one votes lib dem because you are all pampered little c**ts
    Do you kiss your mother with that mouth?
    I admit, calling someone a clot isn't very nice, but this is an overreaction.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited July 2020
    Pagan2 said:

    I love how @Pagan2 claims to speak for the working class of London and yet reccomends that they leave their family, friends, and support network behind and move 270 miles north, as only an out-of-touch person would.

    I never claimed to speak for the working class of london, I dont live in london. I claim to speak some truths to asses like you on your six figure salaries feeling all secure most of the time who go and say crap like no one would be bothered by a 1% extra tax because they very much would this is why no one votes lib dem because you are all pampered little c**ts
    Actually my salary prior to my career change attempt was circa 30k. I’m currently unemployed, and neither do I, or have ever, lived anywhere near London.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OllyT said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    and if Liverpool or Man United ever get bought out by the Chinese or the Saudis you won't hear peep of protest from the fans.
    Yeah because Liverpool fans totally loved Hicks and Gilette.

    While the United fans have totally adored the Glasers.

    No hint of a criticism from the fans for either of them. 🙄

    Our clubs are bigger than our owners.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    I'd stop supporting Spurs if they got taken over by the Saudis or someother such regime linked to thousands of dead women and children. The board almost pushed me to the brink when they decided to take the furlough cash to pay non-playing staff but maintaining players on full wages.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I repeat, I assume that all those on their high horse about the Newcastle takeover will never use any of the following companies again:

    • BT
    • EE
    • TicketMasters
    • Carnival
    • Disney
    • Facebook
    • BP
    • Boeing
    • Shell
    • Total
    • Citigroup
    to name just a few. All that PIF has stakes in.
    I don't consider many of those businesses to be reputable indeed. PIF may have small stakes in some of those too but not ownership, there's a difference between investment and ownership.

    And there's no reason why you can't condemn the Saudis while happily supporting your team. You can distinguish between your club and Mike Ashley afterall can't you? Do you feel an overwhelming urge to defend Mike Ashley and to lavishly praise him and brush off any criticism? The Saudis are no better than Mike Ashley, they're worse than him.

    Love your club I respect that 100%, but there's no need to love either Ashley or the Saudis.
    I don’t love the Saudis. Far from it, but I have zero influence on the sale. I would much prefer that we had a German system where fan ownership accounted for 51% of every club but unfortunately that is not the case.

    People are just jealous that Newcastle is finally getting the investment it deserves.
    I couldn't care less that Newcastle is getting the investment. I'd be happy for Newcastle to get the investment - you're not a rival. If someone wanted to write a blank cheque for Manchester United that might exercise me but for any other squad? I genuinely don't mind.

    I despise the Saudis though. Always have done. Doesn't change because they're proposing to invest in the Geordies. You're neither here nor there in my thinking frankly, this is all about my loathing of the despicable, despotic, frankly evil Saudi regime.
  • Lol masks everywhere as per Telegraph
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816

    OllyT said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It shouldn't happen. The Saudis are not fit and proper anything.

    May as well call the FBI off and get Ghislaine Maxwell declared fit and proper to take over.
    Is a Liverpool fan concerned they may have some more competition in a few years? Diddums.
    From Newcastle? 😲

    Its good to laugh every once in a while, no the thought never even crossed my mind!
    Newcastle United with billions of pounds of Saudi investment, sure.

    I thought you were a big believer in the free-market anyway. Why shouldn’t the PIF be able to invest in Newcastle United Ltd?
    I am a big believer in the free market.

    The Saudis are an authoritarian dictatorship and do not represent the free market.
    A vast majority of owners of Premier League clubs are dodgy AF.

    I don’t care. Bring on the sorely-needed investment.
    It's blood money. Your attitude is extremely disappointing.
    and if Liverpool or Man United ever get bought out by the Chinese or the Saudis you won't hear peep of protest from the fans.
    Yeah because Liverpool fans totally loved Hicks and Gilette.

    While the United fans have totally adored the Glasers.

    No hint of a criticism from the fans for either of them. 🙄

    Our clubs are bigger than our owners.
    The Premier League sold its soul a long time ago. No point in any team playing the morally superior card . The sad thing is that the clubs should be free from owners as such and be owned by the fans on a cooperative or mutual basis . Its a perfect model for sports clubs
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    rkrkrk said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who
    knows what it might do to us, how it could change us

    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.

    Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.

    We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
    Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.

    It's going to be L. You read it here first
    Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
    Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.

    It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.


    I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.

    No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.

    Feels L-shaped to me.
    Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.

This discussion has been closed.