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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sunak now level-pegging with Johnson on who would make the “best PM”
Newbie pollsters, Redfield & Wilton are now asking their samples every week “At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom? ” One of the comparisons is between Boris Johnson and Ricki Sunak.
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I'm not sure how accurate it is.
Lockdown can only be maintained for a certain period of time and can flatten the peak and help with containment but can not be a way of life. So countries that prematurely lockdown have risked using up their lockdown period where it wasn't required only to then see the virus enter their society which now has no herd immunity and is already frustrated with lockdown restrictions, thus seeing a surge in cases post-lockdown.
However in countries that delayed lockdown and 'flattened the curve' after lockdown restrictions are lifted there is a much greater herd immunity effect so that even if there isn't full herd immunity it is easier to keep R down to below 1.
Which is basically what our SAGE scientists were saying back in March.
Also that means Sweden is buggered?
When this kicked off a Swedish friend of mine half-joked "keep 2 metres apart . . . why do they want us to get closer to each other than normal?"
Sweden is doing far worse than its surrounding and comparable countries for deaths - and worse as well in terms of the economy.
Glossing over that and trying to create a false equivalence is dishonest. It may not be intentional dishonesty; it may be part of dishonesty aimed at convincing oneself, of course.
https://twitter.com/joanguirado/status/1282047961183195136?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1282047961183195136|twgr^&ref_url=https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/world-news/spaniards-share-dismay-over-drunken-18592386
We 'locked down' about a week earlier than Boris' announcement as wife had developed a cough (asthma related but hey ho). Since then trips out have been limited but my wife has been determined to get back to 'normal' (Whilst also not getting back to normal) as soon as restrictions were lifted.
Generally we went out once a day.
Social distancing - patchy at best. Haven't seen a single male under the age of 23 follow it at all (went to the park once with daughter. Saw teenage lads meeting up and shaking hands, that sort of stuff). Females tend to be better than males.
Supermarkets - Very good queuing up, but once in its pretty much a free for all. Local Sainsbury's doesn't even have a one way system. Tesco in Formby pretty good. Asda in Aintree bloody awful. No attempts at social distancing or one way at all.
Liverpool ONE - went there on Sunday. Wife has said, never again. One way system in place, but completely ignored - it was so bad I did wonder if it would be better if we did the opposite of what was marked as it almost seemed a typical 'we've been asked to do this, so we'll do the opposite' sort of reaction by other shoppers. Shop staff either not wearing masks or (hilariously) only covering mouth (so leaving nose exposed). I think I saw only two other people wearing a mask in the 45 minutes we were in Liverpool ONE.
Mask wearing has been awful. Probably about 20% (tops) during April, it seems to have actually dropped in the last few weeks, though today is better.
Gullivers World in Warrington requires mask wearing(!) on rides. Though young lads take them off as soon as they get on the rides, and certainly aren't doing any of that social distancing malarky.
Don't follow local cases anymore, but I'm told most local hospitals are now Covid-19 free (certainly Arrowe Park on the Wirral is).
Labour voters though prefer Sunak to Johnson by 51% to 22%, SNP voters prefer Sunak to Johnson by 49% to 15% and LDs prefer Sunak to Johnson by 50% to 22%.
Yet those same Labour voters prefer Starmer to Sunak by 63% to 19%, SNP voters prefer Starmer to Sunak 59% to 23% and LD voters prefer Starmer to Sunak 46% to 31%.
That is little different to the 64% of Labour voters who prefer Starmer to Johnson, the 53% of SNP voters who prefer Starmer to Johnson and the 58% of LD voters who prefer Starmer to Johnson. 77% of Tory voters prefer Johnson to Starmer, slightly more than the 69% of Tory voters who prefer Sunak to Starmer
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-uk-voting-intention-8-july/
With Labour back to sanity (albeit dull sanity) there are two things that will lose it for the Tories regardless of whomever is leader by then - the Rona and Brexit. There are signs of the impact on both turning sharply negative, and thats before the money runs out for furlough as the infection rate goes up, and before the impacts of the grotesque chaos of a Conservative government, a CONSERVATIVE government scuttling round the country trying business up in costs and red tape.
Brexit remains the elephant in the room. All we've had so far is spin and bluster. As we pass through the event horizon of the supply chain grinding to a halt with shortages and big price rises all of the x compared to y politician rankings will change.
It's your ability to generate antibodies that is important. Of course people have less antibodies over time.
Here's nothing particularly wrong with the paper you're talking about (though I don't think it studied T cell response in the same individuals), but the conclusions people are drawing are way too definitive.
Some comment below:
https://twitter.com/MarkSlifka/status/1282889518316580864
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1282657959026331648
'Muzzles' and 'face nappies'; the laid back, common sense of so-called libertarians just staying calm and carrying on should be an inspiration to us all.
So the whole thing is a complete fucking waste of time and won't make any difference. This Government is hopeless
But the poll is "best PM". So quite a few people appear to be saying "the Government as a whole isn't doing well, but the minister I see as most competent could probably do a better job managing it than the PM."
Look at it this way - if the prevailing view was that Sunak is an effective member of an effective Government, the natural response would be, "Great! So Johnson is best PM, and Sunak is best Chancellor... let's keep it all as it is, and long may it continue!" But that isn't what quite a few are saying.
Cricket is a good analogy here. The captain very often isn't the best player, and nobody gives a fig about it if the team is winning. As soon as it isn't, though, and it starts to look like lions led by a donkey, the calls come for the captain to be replaced with one of the star players.
Thanks also to @Alistair
If we don't want the Chinese involved in our mobile and fixed broadband future do we really want them involved in building our nuclear power stations?
And as only exports will be impacted I doubt 99% of the population will notice.
If you don't remove all of that, it's pointless. Huawei are within hundreds of metres of most homes, if they want your Internet traffic they have a way in.
The Government doesn't have a clue what it's doing. This plan was not drawn up with any knowhow of how the country actually runs.
It will be time to replace legacy and broadband Huawei equipment when it is at its end-of-life and hopefully there are some alternatives to the likes of Nokia and Ericsson.
However, swing voters do still exist and it could also be that a lot of those people are saying "I'm Labour now... but call me back if Sunak is Tory leader, as I like him better than Johnson". i.e. it may not be a Machiavellian response to undermine Johnson but a genuine view Sunak would be more likely to get their vote.
For now, we just don't have enough data.
So mere journalists have little or no clue (me, too).
(Though it would have been a damn sight cheaper if the government had just borrowed the money on its own account.)
A lot of things like alarm systems use 2G sims.
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1282994348154662912?s=20
If we operate a border, Ashford gets its lorry park, but the UK macroeconomic situation ends up as good or better than our continental neighbours in the next few years.
Would you be able to accept then that you were wrong?
https://twitter.com/actuarynews/status/1282971866714509312
Also the China General Nuclear Power Corporation also hopes to build a nuclear reactor at Bradwell in Essex.
It doesn't resolve the issue anyway, most FTTC cabinets are Huawei, I suspect your Internet service is being provided over Huawei equipment unless you use Virgin Media.
Seems like wind plus Tesla style storage should be cheaper than that white elephant.
*Except he didn't.
Not my problem you can't read, or don't know what you're talking about.
Least impacted O2/Vodafone but with Cornerstone unwind, Vodafone might also be severely impacted going forward.
Being used as the literal basis for which you receive your Internet connection means that Huawei is as close to the data of people living here as it is possible to be.
Walk down the road to your nearest cabinet, it's almost certainly Huawei. All your Internet traffic is running through it.
To remove Huawei equipment for 5G does very little to alleviate security concerns. To remove Huawei everywhere, from 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, FTTC, FTTP is the only solution.
You argue from a point of view where it's clear you don't know what you're talking about.
I worked for the big red telecoms provider for many years.
Bad news. Her business is psychotherapy...
If you go with Huawei for 5G, then they are locked in for that and the next generation beyond (6G is already in the planning stages) probably.
They read your traffic if you're using 5G, they read your traffic if you're using 4G. They read your traffic if you're using FTTC.
There is no difference in security concern. Huawei have your data (or the ability to collect it), from multiple points. Removing 5G is one, it is not an important one.
4G is far more widely used - as is FTTC.
Again, you're arguing clearly from an ignorant POV.
Your argument is baseless and nonsensical. From a technical POV, if they're forcing removal from the RAN, the equipment should also be removed from the FTTC access network. In effect they are the same thing. They're both an end point to which your data travels to/from.
But to force removal from the RAN and then not also force removal from the FTTC, FTTP networks is completely nonsensical and contradictory.
Given 77% of Tories prefer Boris to Starmer but only 69% of Tories prefer Sunak to Starmer that suggests the only net gains Sunak would make for the Tories over Boris would be with LDs but he risks losing some Tory voters to the Brexit Party or Labour
https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/1283022385059450883?s=21
I am for the first time, in agreement with the Tory rebels.
Here's an imperfect analogy. We wouldn't want to buy medicines from a company that is deliberately contaminating them, but we also wouldn't want to buy medicines from a company that is having trouble fulfilling orders. That latter is the issue with Huawei, or at least it will be if the US goverment has its way.
Additionally if the Tory rebels succeed in backporting this advice to 2G, 3G and 4G a £1.5bn bill for BT and Vodafone turns into a £3.5bn bill and if the date is set to 2024 it turns into a £5.5bn bill or the same £3.5bn with signal dropouts in rural areas for 4-5 years. If Europe follows suit on the 2G, 3G and 4G removal of Huawei and sets an aggressive date it will cost legitimately tens of billions to get it done and there will be a huge shortage of non-Huawei equipment that meets the requirements. The telecoms industry feels that they need to halt this here in the UK or they face a decade of new investment and no profits for basically what they see as no gain because it doesn't get them anything better than what they have now.
However the FT did do some analysis of their own back in January which gives a pretty good clue.
Britain’s four mobile network operators — EE, O2, Three and Vodafone — have launched 5G services in the past six months, all using Huawei kit.
The cap on Huawei use will be of most concern to BT, owner of EE, which will have to diversify its range of suppliers when installing 5G equipment over the next three years in order to comply with the rule.
About two-thirds of EE’s 4G network runs over Huawei antennas and base stations, and BT said it was reviewing the potential cost of complying with the cap. BT’s Openreach division, which is responsible for its fixed-line infrastructure, has relied on Huawei equipment for much of the early build of its full-fibre network....
... Openreach is at risk of being in breach of the cap in three years' time and it is preparing to use more Nokia equipment, as well as issuing a tender for a third supplier.
Vodafone has also been a big user of Huawei’s equipment outside of the core of its 5G network, but a spokesman said it expects to be compliant with the cap by autumn.
Vodafone and EE could be forced to diversify their suppliers in towns and cities in particular...
... The government will apply the 35 per cent market share cap on Huawei to 5G data traffic flows, meaning that mobile network operators that planned to use the Chinese company’s kit predominantly in highly populated areas such as London and Manchester may have to use more Ericsson and Nokia equipment.
Three had picked Huawei as sole supplier of radio equipment — such as antennas and base stations — for its 5G network. The company, which is owned by CK Hutchison, will need to sign a contract with a second supplier to comply with the Huawei cap as it rolls out its 5G network.
O2 has said it will use kit from Ericsson and Nokia for the roll out of its 5G network.
https://www.ft.com/content/3366b9e6-428d-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c
So putting that aside, what you're describing is my scenario 2., that there's no safe way to exit lockdown and our cases will inevitably skyrocket like SA's. In that case, we haven't benefited from locking down late, all it means is that our second peak is delayed a little, not that we're going to avoid it.
Also, I think your model of having a single, hard lockdown, which then gets lifted and we return to normal is wrong. For one thing, there are several things that can happen during lockdown which lead to an improvement even after it's lifted. Masks and hand sanitizer are now much more available than they were. There's been time for messaging about safety (hand washing, masks indoors, social distancing) to settle in during lockdown. Many offices have been reconfigured to allow people to work distanced from each other. Etc. This would all have happened in an earlier lockdown too. There's also test-and-trace which is more effective the fewer cases there are, so an earlier lockdown would have actually lead to a lower R after lockdown was lifted.
And the other thing is that the need to reopen quickly is in part because of the length and hardness of the lockdown. If we'd locked down earlier, we could have partially reopened much sooner, and then remained in that partial-reopen state much longer, which would have managed economic damage while keeping R to safe levels.