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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    IshmaelZ said:

    For sure πολιτικός doesn't mean political, but "city-dwelling" or "civic" are arguably better translations than "social." Which reinforces your point, of course.

    Reports of the death of the city centre office are greatly exaggerated, on the basis of a highly skewed sample of prosperous middle aged homeowners saying they have rather liked wfh for three really weird months when there's been precious little w to be done and their companies have had the benefit of all the resources of their existing offices if they needed them. We don't hear much from their employers or from their spouses, or from the younge,r five living in a two bed flat, demographic.
    We've had employee surveys. The big majority want a split between home and office, generally 2 of one and 3 of the other. That's what I was doing anyway.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    LadyG said:

    Ah, ta. I missed that.

    Twas alarming at first glance
    First rules of stats. If an individual data point looks interesting, it's probably wrong or different to the other points in an important way.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849

    Quite or changed their minds.. the Science from the SCIENTISTS has been terrible,. they cannot agree with each other, no wonder its mixed messages.

    PS

    Who would be a Hull City supporter tonight, nightmare
    Did Phil Brown come on as a special gueat at half time?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of those cases may be from a long time ago. David Paton's figures were showing around 20 deaths a day the last time I checked.
    But that's a figure for hospital deaths in England, not all covid linked deaths in the UK.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842

    There's no need to censor the word 'turnips.'
    :lol:
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kyf_100 said:

    I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.

    There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).

    I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.

    Yes, same here. I have friends who thought they were entirely secure who are now deeply concerned, if not horrified.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    True. It will be toxic for the Conservatives. But consider a *possible* scenario in the autumn...

    The CANZUK trade negotiations are trundling along, but aren't finished. The US deal is going nowhere meaningful. Some of the lorry parks are being built, but not all of them. Firms are saying that they won't really be ready for the new paperwork in January.

    Yes, pausing the process or signing up for extended vassalage will be politically awful. But will it really be worse than ploughing full speed ahead into the lighthouse?

    Hypothetically.
    Temporarily maybe not, by 2024 absolutely, if free movement is still in place then Tory voters in the Red Wall will go back to Labour en masse or to the Brexit Party as ending free movement was the main reason they switched from Labour to the Tories.

    If we still have free movement and no trade deals some southern Tory Leavers would also go Brexit Party too
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    edited July 2020
    LadyG said:

    Ah, ta. I missed that.

    Twas alarming at first glance
    https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.

    Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.

    This is from their data...

    image

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    eristdoof said:

    +1.

    There is another place inSPain where masks are not compulsory, and that is in the night clubs of Majorca
    I'd be surprised if that lasts much longer. I believe the Balearics are about to change their policy. Now the state of alarm is ovder measures are taken by Autonomous Community depending on their own circumstances. Compliance where I live in SE Spain is virtually 100% most of the time. As some idiot posted upthread Spain has long had an authoritarian streak - given my age and health - not such a bad thing really. And overall the society is pretty tolerant, in many ways more so than the UK these days.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Andy_JS said:

    The opinion polls don't support that. Virtually all Labour's extra support since the election is at the expense of the LDs. The Tory share has held up at around 44%.
    You've been taking lessons from HYUFD. That 44% is down 8% since mid April and Labour has been the beneficiary.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Pagan2 said:

    People will lose their jobs in cafes in London, people will gain jobs in cafes in gateshead......seems fine trade off to me and those people struggling to work on a waiters wage in london can move to somewhere cheaper to live. The only ones who really lose out are the rich london dwellers who now have less places to get coffee from the underwaged.....I don't see many crying for your loss on the whole
    Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    And this was after the latest update -

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of those cases may be from a long time ago. David Paton's figures were showing around 20 deaths a day the last time I checked.
    England hospital death data (latest) is -

    image
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    I love how @Pagan2 claims to speak for the working class of London and yet reccomends that they leave their family, friends, and support network behind and move 270 miles north, as only an out-of-touch person would.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    It is bizarre. Irrational exuberance? Nowhere else to put money?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    There's no need to censor the word 'turnips.'
    Rutabugas then?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.
    No. Gateshead town centre is grim because the Heed is so close to Newcastle.

    A pub crawl on Gateshead High Street used to be an entertaining experience!
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    England hospital death data (latest) is -

    image
    English hospital deaths. Andy_JS implied all UK deaths.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    No. Gateshead town centre is grim because the Heed is so close to Newcastle.

    A pub crawl on Gateshead High Street used to be an entertaining experience!
    The new Trinity Square is pretty nice, and obviously the area around the Sage and the Baltic. I used to live in Gateshead myself!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    edited July 2020
    eristdoof said:

    English hospital deaths. Andy_JS implied all UK deaths.
    David Paton was largely doing his thing from England hospital numbers.

    The following is all England deaths, all settings.

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited July 2020
    kyf_100 said:

    I enjoy a nice middle class office job - one that was safe as houses, until this year. They sacked 25% of my office last month, including some of my best friends. In my sector of work that's actually well below average. My previous employer has shed 50% of jobs already. The end clients our consultancy serves have cancelled contracts and are no longer spending money. Furlough doesn't matter. There is no work for my colleagues to come back to.

    There's an element of bravado to some of my colleagues - but most have high outgoings, mortgage payments, school fees etc - and none of them in a million years imagined they would be here. Most live hand to mouth and are leveraged to the max despite being good earners and their redundancy money will run out long before there are jobs again (I am assuming there will be no jobs for at least a year for most).

    I'm relatively lucky in that I was just about to buy a nice house in the country before all this kicked off and as such have over three years salary in the bank. And that's before I sell my current property or eat into my portfolio. But I would not be surprised if some of my colleagues facing losing their homes will end up eating a bullet over this. People earning 70-80k a year plus bonus suddenly signing on for £70-80 a week. It will be a rude awakening. And not one that will benefit the Tories.

    Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.

    It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.

    According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    felix said:

    I'd be surprised if that lasts much longer. I believe the Balearics are about to change their policy. Now the state of alarm is ovder measures are taken by Autonomous Community depending on their own circumstances. Compliance where I live in SE Spain is virtually 100% most of the time. As some idiot posted upthread Spain has long had an authoritarian streak - given my age and health - not such a bad thing really. And overall the society is pretty tolerant, in many ways more so than the UK these days.
    That will relieve the German Health Minister and the German press.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    edited July 2020

    https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ is getting quite good.

    Once they persuade NI, Scotland and Wales to provide day-of data, it will be very good. Reporting day data is NFG - as the above shows.

    This is from their data...

    image

    Wales has day of event level data. I've made a lot of suggestions including the ones we discussed, they seemed quite surprised as to the level of detail we'd like to work with and they also seemed ok with providing API documentation so we can grab and aggregate data for ourselves. Apparently the data issues with Scotland are political, they aren't providing that level of data to PHE who are the ultimate owners of the dashboard and data.

    The date_diff function seemed to flummox them quite badly as well which was a bit depressing. They didn't seem to understand the concept and it's utility. Hopefully it isn't representative of everyone who is on the project.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    LadyG said:

    Yes, same here. I have friends who thought they were entirely secure who are now deeply concerned, if not horrified.
    Yep. A lot of middle class jobs for the boys (and the girls - we don't discriminate, so long as you went to the the right school and have the right accent) suddenly no longer exist.

    I'm not trying to say that's a bigger deal than half a million hospitality industry workers on minimum wage being laid off, because it isn't. What it is is much more unexpected.

    A lot of people who were previously very wealthy by average income standards and have never claimed benefit in their lives will be finding themselves on universal credit soon and it will be interesting to see how it shifts people's political opinions.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    You can't expect a rational answer to that. Because if they know then they're too wealthy and their time too valuable to bother; if they don't know then their response will not be rational.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    HYUFD said:

    Maybe but without furlough from the Tories through lockdown it would have been even worse.

    It should also be pointed out the Tories now do better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters earning £20 to £40k a year than they do with upper middle class voters earning £70k+ anyway.

    According to Yougov the Tories won 47% of voters earning £20-£39,999 at the last general election but only 40% of voters earning more than £70,000. Indeed the Tories did better with the poorest households earning less than £20,000 on 45% than they did with the richest households last year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
    The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    The new Trinity Square is pretty nice, and obviously the area around the Sage and the Baltic. I used to live in Gateshead myself!
    Don't mention Trinity Square! They demolished the Get Carter car park to make way for that!

    Gateshead will always be in the shadow of Newcastle, but unlike The Toon we are part of a First Class Cricket County.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Don't mention Trinity Square! They demolished the Get Carter car park to make way for that!

    Gateshead will always be in the shadow of Newcastle, but unlike The Toon we are part of a First Class Cricket County.
    Greater Newcastle isn’t in County Durham. ;)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Wales has day of event level data. I've made a lot of suggestions including the ones we discussed, they seemed quite surprised as to the level of detail we'd like to work with and they also seemed ok with providing API documentation so we can grab and aggregate data for ourselves. Apparently the data issues with Scotland are political, they aren't providing that level of data to PHE who are the ultimate owners of the dashboard and data.

    The date_diff function seemed to flummox them quite badly as well which was a bit depressing. They didn't seem to understand the concept and it's utility. Hopefully it isn't representative of everyone who is on the project.
    I have an idea about the Scottish data....

    Did you show them my case vs low level authority plot?
  • felix said:

    In Spain masks have been compulsory in almost all public spaces for at least 2 months. From tomorrow here in Andalucia we must wear them in all public open and closed spaces, when driving with others than immediate family, on the beach, except when in the water, swimming pools the same, etc, etc, etc... and the daytime temperatures will stay above 30 degrees for another 2 months. Fail to comply and instant €100 fines. Why the f*** am I reading all of this bollocks on here of whingers and moaners about civil liberties. I can only quote the inimitable Malc G and call you all a load of useless t*****s! Get a life.

    ..and if they were so good, why are there still many hundreds of cases in Spain daily and part of Catalonia going into lockdown. People wearing masks tend to touch them with their hands. They are no panacea. In well controlled environments e.g. healthcare yes, but with Joe Public, really?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    I have an idea about the Scottish data. But they couldn't be that stupid, could they?
    Do tell.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    edited July 2020

    David Paton was largely doing his thing from England hospital numbers.

    Yes that was exactly the the problem. "David Paton was largely doing his thing from England hospital numbers." but Andy_JS wrote "A lot of those cases may be from a long time ago. David Paton's figures were showing around 20 deaths a day the last time I checked."

    "A lot of those cases" were in Wales, which last time I looked is not in England.

    Edit: Sorry, but an Apples and Oranges comparison really winds me up.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    geoffw said:

    Do tell.

    I will ask and get an answer before going off on one. Too much bullshit in the COVID stuff without creating more.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    eristdoof said:

    Yes that was exactly the the problem. "David Paton was largely doing his thing from England hospital numbers." but Andy_JS wrote "A lot of those cases may be from a long time ago. David Paton's figures were showing around 20 deaths a day the last time I checked."

    "A lot of those cases" were in Wales, which last time I looked is not in England.

    Edit: Sorry, but an Apples and Oranges comparison really winds me up.

    The problem has been getting day-of numbers. Which are apparently available (now) for Wales. But not for Scotland.

    Hence using the England Hospital numbers - and now the England All Settings numbers as reliable data set.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    edited July 2020

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    A mixture of expecting banks to pump masses of fake ‘whatever it takes’ liquidity their way, and a rosy view of whatever virus/treatment/cure/vaccine news comes along.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited July 2020

    The “it would have been worse” will not go down well with the kind of people @kyf_100 is talking about.
    As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working class
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    Greater Newcastle isn’t in County Durham. ;)
    We didn't fall into the trap of coming under the control of a Newcastle city region mayor. Still in the Land of the Prince Bishops!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849
    Those Michael Gove in Pret with no mask photos.

    What exactly is going on in his gentleman's area??? Once you see it, you can't unsee it...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    (CNN) With more than 2,000 patients hospitalized and hundreds in Intensive Care Units, "Miami is now the epicenter of the pandemic," one infectious disease expert said.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    IanB2 said:

    A mixture of expecting banks to pump masses of fake ‘whatever it takes’ liquidity their way, and a rosy view of whatever virus/treatment/cure/vaccine news comes along.
    Definite trend over the last two weeks to move out of travel/leisure and into gold and online bookies - expecting a recession touched with a fall in the pound imo
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    I have an idea about the Scottish data....

    Did you show them my case vs low level authority plot?
    The heatmap? Yes, they said they have something similar internally for decision making on local lockdowns, I asked them why they haven't surfaced that heatmap.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    I will ask and get an answer before going off on one. Too much bullshit in the COVID stuff without creating more.
    I didn't see your edit. But there is lower level Scottish data, at the hospital board level here: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/documents/covid-19-data-by-nhs-board/covid-19-data-by-nhs-board/govscot:document/COVID-19+data+by+NHS+Board+14+June+2020.xlsx

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    ..and if they were so good, why are there still many hundreds of cases in Spain daily and part of Catalonia going into lockdown. People wearing masks tend to touch them with their hands. They are no panacea. In well controlled environments e.g. healthcare yes, but with Joe Public, really?
    If nothing else they remind people that we are in the midst of a pandemic and they make people stop and think before going through a typical Spanish kissy kissy greetings. In Alicante province we don’t, as yet, need to wear masks outside but out tonight 60% of people are wearing them anyway just walking around.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    Destinations still welcoming American tourists: Albania, Tunisia, Mexico, Turkey, Dominican Republic, Kosovo, Maldives, North Macedonia, Serbia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    MaxPB said:

    The heatmap? Yes, they said they have something similar internally for decision making on local lockdowns, I asked them why they haven't surfaced that heatmap.
    That makes me kind of proud? scared? that I created a similar thing to the one they are using.....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    rcs1000 said:

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    What happens if some of those firms they put the money into go pop?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,095
    Not sure if it’s been posted yet but the latest Gravis poll for Florida conducted yesterday is quite an eye opener !

    Biden 53
    Trump 43

    I can’t remember the last time any poll for Florida showed a Democrat with a 10 point lead .
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    rcs1000 said:

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,672

    Liberties are often not taken in big bites, they are taken incrementally. An inconvenience here, an extra rule there. No bother. They don;t add up to much in themselves, but after a while you turn around and find yourself trapped.

    It has to stop somewhere. For me, and I suspect many others, it is here.
    Not sure I agree that masks in shops is a key point provided the laws are rolled back all the way afterwards, but @contrarian is exactly right that salami slices are how liberties rot and vanish.

    - First the police started using the line 'accept a caution to deal with it quickly', so people signed on the dotted line.
    - Then Jack Straw (I think it was he) decided that a caution would stay on your record until you were 99 years old.
    - Then they created the vetting and barring scheme to put 10 million people on a database, and cautions plus any comments a chief constable deemed appropriate started coming up under enhanced Disclosure. Obviously recruiters would treat that as a black mark.

    And suddenly thousands of people who had a minor discretion in their teens whilst drunk in town that they accepted a police caution for were denied the possibility of ever having a career in the caring professions.

    It's how you create a truly poisonous system without necessarily intending to.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited July 2020
    LadyG said:

    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    and there was a proper plague in the years after the Civil War .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited July 2020
    nico67 said:

    Not sure if it’s been posted yet but the latest Gravis poll for Florida conducted yesterday is quite an eye opener !

    Biden 53
    Trump 43

    I can’t remember the last time any poll for Florida showed a Democrat with a 10 point lead .

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1282899963274506241?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1282900258750701569?s=20
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    HYUFD said:

    As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working class
    I don't think the constituency of middle class management consultants on 80k a year is large enough to worry about from a polling perspective.

    But I do think it will change the media narrative, particularly among journalists who tend to socialise with said middle-class-non-job types. Seeing people go from that kind of salary and security to being on £78-ish a week universal credit will change a lot of people's opinions about how well the government is handling this crisis.

    Furlough is incredibly popular. People like being paid 80% of their salary to do nothing. My guess is they will be a lot less keen when it's 80 quid a week.

    It seems almost inevitable that this crisis will shift the overton window to the left, which can only benefit a moderate Labour party under Starmer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362
    LadyG said:

    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    eristdoof said:

    This puts into context the claim earlier today by someone on this erstwhile forum, that Sweden's not as bad as the UK or USA.
    I am surprised that the USA's is not worse, frankly. Says something about us and Spain if that remains the case.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Indeed. All day people banging on about how small the bounce back was. In May we were still under full on lockdown.

    When the July figures come out we'll start to get an indication of bouceback since businesses are reopening now. But May's figures? Meaningless!
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    kyf_100 said:

    I don't think the constituency of middle class management consultants on 80k a year is large enough to worry about from a polling perspective.

    But I do think it will change the media narrative, particularly among journalists who tend to socialise with said middle-class-non-job types. Seeing people go from that kind of salary and security to being on £78-ish a week universal credit will change a lot of people's opinions about how well the government is handling this crisis.

    Furlough is incredibly popular. People like being paid 80% of their salary to do nothing. My guess is they will be a lot less keen when it's 80 quid a week.

    It seems almost inevitable that this crisis will shift the overton window to the left, which can only benefit a moderate Labour party under Starmer.
    It does need to be moderate though and not of the student politics type
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    RobD said:

    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    The news says it was expected too somewhat.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    To all those that think wearing a mask is an imposition and uncomfortable, try wearing one for 24 days and nights continuously only removing it to eat and drink. When it’s that as the last line of defence to covid you are grateful you have one.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    RobD said:

    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    LadyG said:

    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    Surely, since the South Sea Bubble recession, which coincidently was just about to kick-off 300 years ago next month.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    MattW said:

    Not sure I agree that masks in shops is a key point provided the laws are rolled back all the way afterwards, but @contrarian is exactly right that salami slices are how liberties rot and vanish.

    - First the police started using the line 'accept a caution to deal with it quickly', so people signed on the dotted line.
    - Then Jack Straw (I think it was he) decided that a caution would stay on your record until you were 99 years old.
    - Then they created the vetting and barring scheme to put 10 million people on a database, and cautions plus any comments a chief constable deemed appropriate started coming up under enhanced Disclosure. Obviously recruiters would treat that as a black mark.

    And suddenly thousands of people who had a minor discretion in their teens whilst drunk in town that they accepted a police caution for were denied the possibility of ever having a career in the caring professions.

    It's how you create a truly poisonous system without necessarily intending to.
    I wonder if Pritti Patel remembers the idea I suggested at a political gathering to deal with the legacy off Rotherham et al.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited July 2020

    Surely, since the South Sea Bubble recession, which coincidently was just about to kick-off 300 years ago next month.
    Well we paid off that debt completely by 2015, so this will all be sorted by 2315 I guess.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/repayment-of-26-billion-historical-debt-to-be-completed-by-government
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Surely, since the South Sea Bubble recession, which coincidently was just about to kick-off 300 years ago next month.
    I think a 20-25% fall is maybe worse than the S Sea Bubble?

    The S Sea Bubble saw a 15% fall
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited July 2020
    nico67 said:

    Not sure if it’s been posted yet but the latest Gravis poll for Florida conducted yesterday is quite an eye opener !

    Biden 53
    Trump 43

    I can’t remember the last time any poll for Florida showed a Democrat with a 10 point lead .

    Given Gravis's absolute shite attempt at demographics weighting in their recent Arizona poll (in favour of Trump in that case) I would hold off on the headline number until seeing their weighting.

    Their Arizona poll was weighted such that Trump won by 13 points in 2016
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Indeed. All day people banging on about how small the bounce back was. In May we were still under full on lockdown.

    When the July figures come out we'll start to get an indication of bouceback since businesses are reopening now. But May's figures? Meaningless!

    https://twitter.com/polslet/status/1283025293515657217?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited July 2020
    kyf_100 said:

    I don't think the constituency of middle class management consultants on 80k a year is large enough to worry about from a polling perspective.

    But I do think it will change the media narrative, particularly among journalists who tend to socialise with said middle-class-non-job types. Seeing people go from that kind of salary and security to being on £78-ish a week universal credit will change a lot of people's opinions about how well the government is handling this crisis.

    Furlough is incredibly popular. People like being paid 80% of their salary to do nothing. My guess is they will be a lot less keen when it's 80 quid a week.

    It seems almost inevitable that this crisis will shift the overton window to the left, which can only benefit a moderate Labour party under Starmer.
    The Tories are already a big spending party now so I doubt that will change, given lockdown is easing if people cannot find a job in their old profession as furlough ends they will just have to find a new one in another field.

    However in terms of the political divide the divide is primarily cultural not economic now anyway, a white working class voter in the Midlands is far more likely to be Tory than a wealthy middle class voter living in London
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955

    It does need to be moderate though and not of the student politics type
    Agreed. Hopefully more people will be interested in the welfare of the poor and how we can help people back into work and a lot less interested in which 200 year old statues are wrongthink and need to be pulled down.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    HYUFD said:

    As I pointed out the majority of them are now already voting Labour or LD anyway and especially so if they live in London, the Tory base is no longer the rich, it is the provincial bluecollar white skilled working class
    You cant win with just your base.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    kyf_100 said:

    Agreed. Hopefully more people will be interested in the welfare of the poor and how we can help people back into work and a lot less interested in which 200 year old statues are wrongthink and need to be pulled down.
    So optimistic. The thing about crusaders of such types, for good and ill, is that the job is never done and nothing gets in the way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    LadyG said:

    I think a 20-25% fall is maybe worse than the S Sea Bubble?

    The S Sea Bubble saw a 15% fall
    I thought the SSB recession was estimated to be -20%.

    I'd predict we'll see something in the -15% range this year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    LadyG said:

    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945

    Have you ever been to Gateshead? Gateshead is basically Newcastle City Centre.
    Gateshead's got bigger problems if the Metro centre goes under.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    LadyG said:


    https://twitter.com/polslet/status/1283025293515657217?s=20
    Why would you compare Norway to the UK. Norway wasn't in lockdown.

    The UK is a densely population urban nation with a population density of 1,010 people per square mile.
    Norway is an isolated nation with a population density of 2 people and 3 reindeer per square mile.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    edited July 2020
    The USA likely to report over 1000 CV-19 death today for the first time in more than a month.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    edited July 2020
    dixiedean said:

    Gateshead's got bigger problems if the Metro centre goes under.
    Someone will buy the Metrocentre I think. It’s always busy, and probably a good investment for the right price.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kle4 said:

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849
    Not sure if HYUFD has noticed, but since we left the EU we've had this thing called the Rona. Its killed 50k people and turned the country upside down. As others are pointing out a large number of people are claiming or soon to be claiming UC for the first time as their jobs and in some cases half their industry is swept away.

    Pre-Rona obsession with Essicksinnit Man's opinion of up Norf's views on free movement won't matter a toss compared to what has happened after Brexit. This is armageddon, and we haven't even faced into the fun that no deal could pour onto the fire.

    A focus on how people actually live - rather than how he thinks they live - may help. Reading stats from a poll is very different from having the slightest idea of the lives and experiences of people which drive their answers in those polls
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    I thought the SSB recession was estimated to be -20%.

    I'd predict we'll see something in the -15% range this year.
    I kind of agree. I reckon -15% to -20%, and it will be bloody. Ins'Allah I am wrong
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    edited July 2020
    @HYUFD I’m in Epping tomorrow for work experience. I’ll be sure to ask the locals what they think of the parish council.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945
    RobD said:

    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Markets were expecting 5.5% in May. They got 1.8%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362
    dixiedean said:

    Markets were expecting 5.5% in May. They got 1.8%.
    I assume that decimal place was just for a laugh?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Why would you compare Norway to the UK. Norway wasn't in lockdown.

    The UK is a densely population urban nation with a population density of 1,010 people per square mile.
    Norway is an isolated nation with a population density of 2 people and 3 reindeer per square mile.
    Norway locked down. They even closed their borders from the 16th of March.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    LadyG said:

    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
    It wont be as bad as the English Civil War I think I can safely predict.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The USA likely to report over 1000 CV-19 death today for the first time in more than a month.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

    It's down from the peak though so everything is fine.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    I've been saying from the start that the Newcastle United takeover might well not happen.

    Saudi Arabia bans beIN Sports to further complicate £300m Newcastle takeover

    Ruling makes it impossible to watch Premier League legally
    English top flight has been considering club’s sale for 16 weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/14/saudi-arabia-bans-bein-sport-to-further-complicate-300m-newcastle-takeover

    It will happen on Friday apparently.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    edited July 2020

    Yes but then you always have preferred insults to arguments.
    I am simply agreeing with RCS's assessment of anyone who believes 4 months of a pandemic has permanently damaged our economy.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories are already a big spending party now so I doubt that will change, given lockdown is easing if people cannot find a job in their old profession as furlough ends they will just have to find a new one in another field.

    However in terms of the political divide the divide is primarily cultural not economic now anyway, a white working class voter in the Midlands is far more likely to be Tory than a wealthy middle class voter living in London
    Oh, believe me, I know plenty of champagne socialists. Plenty I work with fall into that category. All are privileged, most come from "good" familiies, almost all went to good schools and universities. Thye vote Labour because they can afford to.

    But their noses wrinkle when they speak of the working class. The type wot drink Carling and go to Magaluf. Because they are *different* and *educated* and *better*. They never imagined they would be joining the dole queue. Mucking it with the proles.

    It will be a rude awakening and I look forward to seeing what happens. As I have mentioned in other replies I hope it will result in our society paying more attention to issues like helping living and desperate unemployed people into work and less attention on which 200 year dead statue dude to cancel this week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    Alistair said:

    It's down from the peak though so everything is fine.
    90% down from its peak apparently*

    *Well if you believe that....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945

    Someone will buy the Metrocentre I think. It’s always busy, and probably a good investment for the right price.
    One would hope so. However, "always busy" is perhaps a tad premature.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    dixiedean said:

    One would hope so. However, "always busy" is perhaps a tad premature.
    I drove past today and the car parks were pretty full for a Tuesday morning.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Amidst all the mock doom and gloom about how the UK's economy didn't bounce back in May while it was locked down . . . just saw this breakdown and its frankly better than I'd expect!
    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918368778092545

    I wouldn't expect any growth in services while we're locked down, but nearly double-digit percentage growth in the other sectors? That's far better than I'd have expected! Its the fact services make up such a big part of the economy that means the overall figures are awful but then vast proportions of services were legally closed in May so what else should be expected?

    That manufacturing etc were posting 8% gains in May though . . . I'm pleasantly surprised by that. Its depressing that nobody was covering this sectoral breakdown in the figures in the media today, that I saw at least.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    It wont be as bad as the English Civil War I think I can safely predict.
    If we are doing Civil War re-enactment, can I be Col. Pride?

    Will bring beer....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849

    @HYUFD I’m in Epping tomorrow for work experience. I’ll be sure to ask the locals what they think of the parish council.

    Are you bringing a translator with you? Not for them, so that you have Essicksinnit translated into English
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    LadyG said:
    That's just Middlesbrough on a normal night.
This discussion has been closed.