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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lincoln Project’s response to Trump’s pardon of convicted

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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687
    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    That's defeated Google Translate!
  • Options
    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 706
    Ipsos late poll just out shows Duda 50.8%
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,010
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Another day, another Government comms mess up on the unlocking.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1282412343486550018

    Is that the same Metro which told us that 36 areas were to be put into a second lockdown within a few days ?
    The pattern is almost too precise by now - moot it, scotch it on the Sunday shows, announce it shortly after.
    I'm waiting for the indignation in Ilkley when we get a borough-wide lockdown in Bradford.
    It's already started with the Yorkshire Live correspondents here. "We all know the outbreak is in NORTH Kirklees". I think any Huddersfield lockdown will be met with much agitation.

    We don't know for sure that is the case, but I tend to agree though - I won't be too happy being locked down for an outbreak which does appear to be localised 10 miles away. In fact, judging by the Observer saying the mobile unit is to be deployed in S. Bradford, the Bradford/Kirklees issues look to be a joint outbreak on the border. The Kirklees meat plant from which 164 cases have been confirmed is pretty much on the Bradford M62 turn off, in postcode BD19.
    Another dodgy meat plant? Wouldn’t we be better shutting the bloody places down and eating veg or unprocessed meat instead?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Another day, another Government comms mess up on the unlocking.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1282412343486550018

    Is that the same Metro which told us that 36 areas were to be put into a second lockdown within a few days ?
    The pattern is almost too precise by now - moot it, scotch it on the Sunday shows, announce it shortly after.
    I'm waiting for the indignation in Ilkley when we get a borough-wide lockdown in Bradford.
    It's already started with the Yorkshire Live correspondents here. "We all know the outbreak is in NORTH Kirklees". I think any Huddersfield lockdown will be met with much agitation.

    We don't know for sure that is the case, but I tend to agree though - I won't be too happy being locked down for an outbreak which does appear to be localised 10 miles away. In fact, judging by the Observer saying the mobile unit is to be deployed in S. Bradford, the Bradford/Kirklees issues look to be a joint outbreak on the border. The Kirklees meat plant from which 164 cases have been confirmed is pretty much on the Bradford M62 turn off, in postcode BD19.
    Another dodgy meat plant? Wouldn’t we be better shutting the bloody places down and eating veg or unprocessed meat instead?
    Except there's a dodgy veg farm in Herefordshire!
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Another day, another Government comms mess up on the unlocking.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1282412343486550018

    Is that the same Metro which told us that 36 areas were to be put into a second lockdown within a few days ?
    The pattern is almost too precise by now - moot it, scotch it on the Sunday shows, announce it shortly after.
    I'm waiting for the indignation in Ilkley when we get a borough-wide lockdown in Bradford.
    It's already started with the Yorkshire Live correspondents here. "We all know the outbreak is in NORTH Kirklees". I think any Huddersfield lockdown will be met with much agitation.

    We don't know for sure that is the case, but I tend to agree though - I won't be too happy being locked down for an outbreak which does appear to be localised 10 miles away. In fact, judging by the Observer saying the mobile unit is to be deployed in S. Bradford, the Bradford/Kirklees issues look to be a joint outbreak on the border. The Kirklees meat plant from which 164 cases have been confirmed is pretty much on the Bradford M62 turn off, in postcode BD19.
    Another dodgy meat plant? Wouldn’t we be better shutting the bloody places down and eating veg or unprocessed meat instead?
    But. It's a veg farm in Herefordshire...
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,816

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Another day, another Government comms mess up on the unlocking.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1282412343486550018

    Is that the same Metro which told us that 36 areas were to be put into a second lockdown within a few days ?
    The pattern is almost too precise by now - moot it, scotch it on the Sunday shows, announce it shortly after.
    I'm waiting for the indignation in Ilkley when we get a borough-wide lockdown in Bradford.
    It's already started with the Yorkshire Live correspondents here. "We all know the outbreak is in NORTH Kirklees". I think any Huddersfield lockdown will be met with much agitation.

    We don't know for sure that is the case, but I tend to agree though - I won't be too happy being locked down for an outbreak which does appear to be localised 10 miles away. In fact, judging by the Observer saying the mobile unit is to be deployed in S. Bradford, the Bradford/Kirklees issues look to be a joint outbreak on the border. The Kirklees meat plant from which 164 cases have been confirmed is pretty much on the Bradford M62 turn off, in postcode BD19.
    Another dodgy meat plant? Wouldn’t we be better shutting the bloody places down and eating veg or unprocessed meat instead?
    It's still the testing and tracing fall out from the meat plant affected and announced a couple of weeks ago before the Leicester lockdown. It was an Asda owned bacon plant aiui. I believe a Batley bed factory has also had an outbreak - beds and bedding is a sizeable industry in the towns that way, and prosecutably poor conditions are not unheard of, so a Leicester comparison that way can also be made.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    For our Welsh friends.
    Wrexham, Drugs and Rock 'n Roll.
    Help Me Rhondda.

    Let's Aberystwyth again, like we did last summer...
    And

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    For our Welsh friends.
    Wrexham, Drugs and Rock 'n Roll.
    Help Me Rhondda.

    Let's Aberystwyth again, like we did last summer...
    You make me feel mighty Rhyl
    Carmarthen feel the noise.
    Brecon through to the other side.
    Nuneaton Red Balloons.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,257

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    That's defeated Google Translate!
    That's reassuring.
    I tried
    https://mingsprooch.de
    Which almost works
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2020

    Ipsos late poll just out shows Duda 50.8%

    Looks like Poland has indeed narrowly re elected its Donald Trump over its David Cameron like challenger
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1282434692806070273?s=20
  • Options
    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    Is that Rhineland dialect?
  • Options
    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 706
    Still 16% return for Duda available on Betfair.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,899
    edited July 2020
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    That's defeated Google Translate!
    That's reassuring.
    I tried
    https://mingsprooch.de
    Which almost works
    Aha! I was right. I lived in Aachen for 10 years, and that sounds a lot like the stuff you hear at Karneval time. Still struggling to decode it though!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,444
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Another day, another Government comms mess up on the unlocking.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1282412343486550018

    Is that the same Metro which told us that 36 areas were to be put into a second lockdown within a few days ?
    The pattern is almost too precise by now - moot it, scotch it on the Sunday shows, announce it shortly after.
    I'm waiting for the indignation in Ilkley when we get a borough-wide lockdown in Bradford.
    It's already started with the Yorkshire Live correspondents here. "We all know the outbreak is in NORTH Kirklees". I think any Huddersfield lockdown will be met with much agitation.

    We don't know for sure that is the case, but I tend to agree though - I won't be too happy being locked down for an outbreak which does appear to be localised 10 miles away. In fact, judging by the Observer saying the mobile unit is to be deployed in S. Bradford, the Bradford/Kirklees issues look to be a joint outbreak on the border. The Kirklees meat plant from which 164 cases have been confirmed is pretty much on the Bradford M62 turn off, in postcode BD19.
    Another dodgy meat plant? Wouldn’t we be better shutting the bloody places down and eating veg or unprocessed meat instead?
    It's still the testing and tracing fall out from the meat plant affected and announced a couple of weeks ago before the Leicester lockdown. It was an Asda owned bacon plant aiui. I believe a Batley bed factory has also had an outbreak - beds and bedding is a sizeable industry in the towns that way, and prosecutably poor conditions are not unheard of, so a Leicester comparison that way can also be made.
    We may have to resort to something bigoted - such as applying inspections to everyone on an equal basis.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    Poland 2020

    According to Guardian live blog, margin of error for late exit poll is +/-2%. Also, it does NOT include votes cast by Poles abroad, which are expected to break for Mayor T (note USA Polish vote did NOT but margin closer than expected).
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,444

    Exactly. There is some utterly ridiculous stuff posted on here and on Twitter. I don’t know why I let it wind me up, but it does.
    All you need is a pre-conception. Then ignore any actually data.

    It's how Donald Trump does it. The twitter idiots are his very best of friends.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,257

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    That's defeated Google Translate!
    That's reassuring.
    I tried
    https://mingsprooch.de
    Which almost works
    Aha! I was right. I lived in Aachen for 10 years, and that sounds a lot like the stuff you hear at Karneval time. Still struggling to decode it though!
    It's Kölsch, which locals will tell you is the only language that is also a beer (not sure if that's true) I don't understand it unless I already know what it means!
    But I was surprised by how many songs about Cologne most people in Cologne seem to know. Dozens, if not hundreds. Yes they are carnival songs, and in Kölsch. Of course, I don't know a single Aachen song.

    It makes me think most songs about cities are probably unknown to people from elsewhere, even if almost everyone in the city concerned knows the songs. And if people from elsewhere hear the songs they are often impenetrable even with the help of putting the lyrics into Google translate.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Poland 2020

    According to Guardian live blog, margin of error for late exit poll is +/-2%. Also, it does NOT include votes cast by Poles abroad, which are expected to break for Mayor T (note USA Polish vote did NOT but margin closer than expected).

    It's not sampled like the French one then. That's the most accurate.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Warsaw will go heavily Tradowski, the countryside heavily Duda. Nailed on :p
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Pulpstar said:

    Warsaw will go heavily Tradowski, the countryside heavily Duda. Nailed on :p

    We got a real Nostradamus here lads.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,444

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Another day, another Government comms mess up on the unlocking.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1282412343486550018

    Is that the same Metro which told us that 36 areas were to be put into a second lockdown within a few days ?
    The pattern is almost too precise by now - moot it, scotch it on the Sunday shows, announce it shortly after.
    I'm waiting for the indignation in Ilkley when we get a borough-wide lockdown in Bradford.
    It's already started with the Yorkshire Live correspondents here. "We all know the outbreak is in NORTH Kirklees". I think any Huddersfield lockdown will be met with much agitation.

    We don't know for sure that is the case, but I tend to agree though - I won't be too happy being locked down for an outbreak which does appear to be localised 10 miles away. In fact, judging by the Observer saying the mobile unit is to be deployed in S. Bradford, the Bradford/Kirklees issues look to be a joint outbreak on the border. The Kirklees meat plant from which 164 cases have been confirmed is pretty much on the Bradford M62 turn off, in postcode BD19.
    Another dodgy meat plant? Wouldn’t we be better shutting the bloody places down and eating veg or unprocessed meat instead?
    Except there's a dodgy veg farm in Herefordshire!
    image

    no, not quite sure why I thought of that... but still
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    Is that Rhineland dialect?
    Bläck Fööss - Unsere Stammbaum

    found tranlation INTO German, but not from German to English

    Now awaiting Bog Latin version.

  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Another day, another Government comms mess up on the unlocking.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1282412343486550018

    Is that the same Metro which told us that 36 areas were to be put into a second lockdown within a few days ?
    The pattern is almost too precise by now - moot it, scotch it on the Sunday shows, announce it shortly after.
    I'm waiting for the indignation in Ilkley when we get a borough-wide lockdown in Bradford.
    It's already started with the Yorkshire Live correspondents here. "We all know the outbreak is in NORTH Kirklees". I think any Huddersfield lockdown will be met with much agitation.

    We don't know for sure that is the case, but I tend to agree though - I won't be too happy being locked down for an outbreak which does appear to be localised 10 miles away. In fact, judging by the Observer saying the mobile unit is to be deployed in S. Bradford, the Bradford/Kirklees issues look to be a joint outbreak on the border. The Kirklees meat plant from which 164 cases have been confirmed is pretty much on the Bradford M62 turn off, in postcode BD19.
    Another dodgy meat plant? Wouldn’t we be better shutting the bloody places down and eating veg or unprocessed meat instead?
    Except there's a dodgy veg farm in Herefordshire!
    image

    no, not quite sure why I thought of that... but still
    Those are the most pear-shapped vegetarians I've ever seen,
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    Pulpstar said:

    Warsaw will go heavily Tradowski, the countryside heavily Duda. Nailed on :p

    Poland 2020

    >> Warsaw will indeed go big for Mayor T this year, as it has for Civic Platform moderates verus conservative PiSers like Duda.

    >> Same is true of Gdansk and some other major centers, plus some rural areas, for example area in far northeast Poland with concentration of Lithuanians & Belarusan voters.

    >> Rest of rural will favor Duda & PiS as in previous races, in varying degree from place to place.

    >> Highest turnout in 30 years MAY favor Mayor T, on theory it boosted both number AND percent of votes cast b by younger, pro-T Poles.

    >> In this context, note that government misused emergency text system to send Get-Out-And-Vote (GOTV) msgs to Poles over 65, a group which strongly favored the Dud based on all polling including exit.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    @brokenwheel

    Let's have a small wager. Will Senate Republicans outperform (or underperform) Trump. I think they will outperform, you think they will underperform.

    Excluding the Georgia Special (where there is a jungle primary in November, and the run-off isn't until January), there are 21 Republican Senate seats up for election:

    Alaska
    Arizona (special)
    Arkansas
    Colorado
    Georgia
    Idaho
    Iowa
    Kansas
    Kentucky
    Louisiana
    Maine
    Mississippi
    Montana
    Nebraska
    North Carolina
    Oklahoma
    South Carolina
    South Dakota
    Tennessee
    Texas
    West Virginia
    Wyoming

    Let's keep it really easy. If the simple average of the percentage vote for President Trump exceeds the simple average for the Republican Senators, then you win, otherwise I win.

    I'm happy to do it for charity, or a direct bet. I'm confident enough to let you choose the stakes.

    (For the record, I think Trump will outperform the Republican Senators in Arizona, Montana and Kentucky by a fair margin. Montana is - of course - a special case where Steve Bullock is the Democratic Senate candidate. And I think President Trump will hold onto Arizona, while Mark Kelly beats out McSally.)
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    For our Welsh friends.
    Wrexham, Drugs and Rock 'n Roll.
    Help Me Rhondda.

    Let's Aberystwyth again, like we did last summer...
    And

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    For our Welsh friends.
    Wrexham, Drugs and Rock 'n Roll.
    Help Me Rhondda.

    Let's Aberystwyth again, like we did last summer...
    You make me feel mighty Rhyl
    Carmarthen feel the noise.
    Brecon through to the other side.
    Nuneaton Red Balloons.
    Sunil, you might also like "Big River" which is trip down the mighty Mississip' featuring stops in St Paul, MN; Davenport, IA; St Louis ("Saint Louie"), MO; Memphis, TN, Baton Rouge, LA; New Orleans, LA; and finally ending in "the Gulf" of Mexico.
  • Options

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    Is that Rhineland dialect?
    Bläck Fööss - Unsere Stammbaum

    found tranlation INTO German, but not from German to English

    Now awaiting Bog Latin version.

    "Kölle Alaaf!!"

    (As an Anglishman I feel a little dirty now)
  • Options

    My fav songs with places

    Luton Airport - Cats UK
    Devil went down to Georgia

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzJ7CO6QriI
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    HYUFD said:
    IS this same fellow, who said Fianna Fail won every Irish election 1932 - 2008?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    Is that Rhineland dialect?
    Bläck Fööss - Unsere Stammbaum

    found tranlation INTO German, but not from German to English

    Now awaiting Bog Latin version.

    "Kölle Alaaf!!"

    (As an Anglishman I feel a little dirty now)
    Go soak yer head in a bucket of cologne. Very refreshing. Of course you'll STILL be dirty AND now stink like a Turkish whorehouse. BUT will do wonders in enforcing social distancing!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,444

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    Is that Rhineland dialect?
    Bläck Fööss - Unsere Stammbaum

    found tranlation INTO German, but not from German to English

    Now awaiting Bog Latin version.

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    Is that Rhineland dialect?
    Bläck Fööss - Unsere Stammbaum

    found tranlation INTO German, but not from German to English

    Now awaiting Bog Latin version.

    "Bog Latin" - now I have visions of Romans, chased in marshes by Goths, playing proto-blues on the cithara....
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Amazing how Western politicians can say this as they stand silently while the Uighur genocide goes on RIGHT NOW.

    https://www.twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1281883425503416321
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,690
    edited July 2020
    Gabs3 said:

    Amazing how Western politicians can say this as they stand silently while the Uighur genocide goes on RIGHT NOW.

    https://www.twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1281883425503416321

    Good point. I remember when the wars in the Balkans were going on in the 1990s we were often being informed about Pol Pot and Cambodia. The same thing is happening again.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    Is that Rhineland dialect?
    Bläck Fööss - Unsere Stammbaum

    found tranlation INTO German, but not from German to English

    Now awaiting Bog Latin version.

    kamski said:

    Su simmer all he hin jekumme, mir sprechen hück all die selve Sproch.
    Mir han dodurch su vill jewonne.
    Mir sin wie mer sin, mir Jecke am Rhing, dat is jet wo mer stolz drop sin

    Is that Rhineland dialect?
    Bläck Fööss - Unsere Stammbaum

    found tranlation INTO German, but not from German to English

    Now awaiting Bog Latin version.

    "Bog Latin" - now I have visions of Romans, chased in marshes by Goths, playing proto-blues on the cithara....
    Bog Latin = Irish (or Gaelic if you must); term of fun used by Brendan Behan and other notorious anti-Hibernites.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Another day, another Government comms mess up on the unlocking.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1282412343486550018

    Is that the same Metro which told us that 36 areas were to be put into a second lockdown within a few days ?
    The pattern is almost too precise by now - moot it, scotch it on the Sunday shows, announce it shortly after.
    I'm waiting for the indignation in Ilkley when we get a borough-wide lockdown in Bradford.
    It's already started with the Yorkshire Live correspondents here. "We all know the outbreak is in NORTH Kirklees". I think any Huddersfield lockdown will be met with much agitation.

    We don't know for sure that is the case, but I tend to agree though - I won't be too happy being locked down for an outbreak which does appear to be localised 10 miles away. In fact, judging by the Observer saying the mobile unit is to be deployed in S. Bradford, the Bradford/Kirklees issues look to be a joint outbreak on the border. The Kirklees meat plant from which 164 cases have been confirmed is pretty much on the Bradford M62 turn off, in postcode BD19.
    Another dodgy meat plant? Wouldn’t we be better shutting the bloody places down and eating veg or unprocessed meat instead?
    Except there's a dodgy veg farm in Herefordshire!
    image

    no, not quite sure why I thought of that... but still
    Those are the most pear-shapped vegetarians I've ever seen,
    You haven't been looking hard enough then - all other things being equal, a veggie diet would put fat on you.
This discussion has been closed.