The Lincoln Project is made up of former Tea Partiers, who have clearly decided that their political project has nothing to fear from a Biden presidency.
I wonder if in four years the GOP will be running somebody who's even more of a maniac than Trump and people like Mike will be celebrating ads by "principled" Trump supporters saying that this next candidate is a bridge too far.
That's a far more interesting question.
How do "populist" parties respond when they are no longer popular?
Normally, when a Party loses power after a longer or shorter period in office, it has two options, either, to maintain its position and hope the electorate comes back to it or to change its position to move to where the electorate now is (or where the Party thinks it is).
You'd think that process would be easy but it isn't and it can take parties out of power a long time to realise a) they aren't in power any more and b) how they are going to get back into power.
The problem the Republican Party has is that its more moderate supporters - the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries - have left them. It's not inconceivable that (if Trump wins again this year) that less than a quarter of voters will be registered Republicans by the end of 2024. And the smaller in number (and more fanatical and intellectually pure) the supporter base, the harder it is to tack away from extreme positions.
Can you explain why Republican (closed) primaries have seen healthy turnout despite it being essentially uncontested this year?
For exactly that reason: you have 80% of Registered Republicans being enthused with President Trump. And I mean, genuinely enthused. For the first time, they haven't had to compromise with the left of their party, and they have their man.
But you just claimed "moderate" Republicans, "the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries", have left them. So that doesn't explain how Trump has been getting contested-election level turnout unless you're claiming Trump supporters have registered R. Do registrations indicate this?
Many people who have left the Republicans over the years to become Independents are not "moderates", hence why they swung to Trump in 2016.
So, your contention is that the number of Republicans dropped because the Republican Party was insufficiently Trumpian.
Well, that should be easy enough to confirm. If it's true, then the number of Registered Republicans should have risen since Trump became President and/or Trump's standing with Independents should be better than his standing with the population as a whole.
Unfortunately for your thesis:
(1) The number of Registered Republicans has dropped significantly in the last four years. In 2016, it was 32%, it's now 27-28%. So, President Trump has sped up the loss of voters from the Republican party. (10% of registered supporters in three and a half years is not an impressive achievement.)
(2) The evidence is that Independents don't particularly like Trump. According to Gallup, his approval numbers with them is 33% - that's five points worse than the population as a whole.
Which could mean a narrow win for Dud's opponent, Mayor T, on assumption (yet unproven) than voters polled MIGHT have been reluctant to say they voted against the regime.
Which could mean a narrow win for Dud's opponent, Mayor T, on assumption (yet unproven) than voters polled MIGHT have been reluctant to say they voted against the regime.
Is it that type of exit poll rather than the sampling of actual votes type?
Note that NOT all of Lincoln Project contributors (funds & content) are Tea Party hearties. Many are Bushies, while others are moderates in the (dying) tradition of Nelson Rockefeller and former WA State 3-term GOP Gov. Dan Evans.
In other words, THEIR tent is bigger than that of US branch of the Putinist International.
And many of them would have opposed Barry Goldwater in 1964 well before Trump came along
Goldwater and Trump are very different. Goldwater was a small government Republican who believed that systems mattered more than people; Trump is a big government Republican who believes in the power of the great man.
On Goldwater Mrs America with Cate Blanchette and Rose Byrne is very good on BBC2 and FX at showcasing the issues of the 1960s and 1970s
Yes, I've been watching Mrs America and it's excellent. Noticeable that the "culture wars" was a big thing in the early 1970s, primarily around feminism/women's rights, but with a dash of race/BLM thrown in. It just wasn't called culture wars. Things really haven't changed as much as people think - 50 years ago, same old stuff. It's just a bit more instant now and spreads more easily and quickly because of social media.
"Something unusual is happening among Britain’s youngest voters, known as Generation Z or the Zoomers. Increasingly, those under the age of 22 seem to be diverging from voters aged between 22 and 39, and appear considerably more conservative, to the point where today’s 18-year-olds are about as right-wing as 40 year-olds.
How might this be explained? Are Zoomers just more irreverent, reacting against their politically-correct older siblings? Or is it that Britain’s newest voters are simply too young to have been shaped by the Brexit shock? Whatever the explanation, in the immediate post-Brexit years the youngest voters were 40 points more liberal than the oldest. Today they are only 20 points more to the Left."
Is this the chap who got "liberal" and "left-liberal" confused last time?
What does he mean by the terms "liberal" and "left" such that he thinks they can be compared?
In my book, the so-called liberal-left consists of small-minded petty-authoritarians.
Even so, the quite stark male/female split in political leaning of the current 16-18 year olds, the early exposure to both the further reaches of identity politics and right-wing, anti-identitarian YouTubers. That stuff, as I've noted before, is starting to have an effect.
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
When yours truly was last among the Dubs, "Dirty Old Town" was VERY popular, indeed locals associated it WITH Dublin, which may not be the town the songwriter was thinking about, but which no native would deny is indeed a bit on the grimy side.
Which could mean a narrow win for Dud's opponent, Mayor T, on assumption (yet unproven) than voters polled MIGHT have been reluctant to say they voted against the regime.
Is it that type of exit poll rather than the sampling of actual votes type?
According to Guardian blog, "Ipsos exit poll, expected in less than 10 minutes, is carried out for all three major Polish broadcasters: TVP, TVN and Polsat".
The Lincoln Project is made up of former Tea Partiers, who have clearly decided that their political project has nothing to fear from a Biden presidency.
I wonder if in four years the GOP will be running somebody who's even more of a maniac than Trump and people like Mike will be celebrating ads by "principled" Trump supporters saying that this next candidate is a bridge too far.
That's a far more interesting question.
How do "populist" parties respond when they are no longer popular?
Normally, when a Party loses power after a longer or shorter period in office, it has two options, either, to maintain its position and hope the electorate comes back to it or to change its position to move to where the electorate now is (or where the Party thinks it is).
You'd think that process would be easy but it isn't and it can take parties out of power a long time to realise a) they aren't in power any more and b) how they are going to get back into power.
The problem the Republican Party has is that its more moderate supporters - the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries - have left them. It's not inconceivable that (if Trump wins again this year) that less than a quarter of voters will be registered Republicans by the end of 2024. And the smaller in number (and more fanatical and intellectually pure) the supporter base, the harder it is to tack away from extreme positions.
Moderates yes but the Republicans have not won Moderates since Reagan in 1984. Hillary won them by 11% in 2016.
It is Independents Trump needs to win again, he won them by 5% in 2016
My point is that moderate Republicans have left the party (hence the fall in the number of Registered Republicans), and that means that those that remain are more 'hard core'.
If the Democrats had nominated Warren or Sanders, I have no doubt that Trump would have won Independents again in 2020. With Biden, who may have dementia, but generally considered moderate, I think the Dems probably win Independents this time around.
If Biden does win independents he has likely won the presidency, agreed, given Obama won in 2012 even losing independents to Romney
You're not still thinking it'll be close are you?
If nothing changes, then I suspect Biden will walk it.
But it's a dangerous game to assume that nothing changes.
We could see the US economy recover strongly, which would go a long way to ensuring Trump's re-election.
Or we could see CV-19 continuing to drag the US economy South, even as much of the rest of the world recovers - which would pretty much doom him.
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
When yours truly was last among the Dubs, "Dirty Old Town" was VERY popular, indeed locals associated it WITH Dublin, which may not be the town the songwriter was thinking about, but which no native would deny is indeed a bit on the grimy side.
Exactly. When I last visited, the place looked like someone had pressure washed the place five minutes before. You could still see the poverty outside the centre, but it was as if someone had cleaned the streets in Pre-Guliani New York...
Which could mean a narrow win for Dud's opponent, Mayor T, on assumption (yet unproven) than voters polled MIGHT have been reluctant to say they voted against the regime.
Duda helped by a disgraceful attempt by the government to get its base voters out by sending an SMS to all mobile phones telling them older people don’t have to wait in line to vote . The emergency SMS is only supposed to be used for natural disasters .
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
When yours truly was last among the Dubs, "Dirty Old Town" was VERY popular, indeed locals associated it WITH Dublin, which may not be the town the songwriter was thinking about, but which no native would deny is indeed a bit on the grimy side.
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
When yours truly was last among the Dubs, "Dirty Old Town" was VERY popular, indeed locals associated it WITH Dublin, which may not be the town the songwriter was thinking about, but which no native would deny is indeed a bit on the grimy side.
S Alford was the original “Dirty old town”
But quite a few Dubliners seem to have adopted it as their anthem.
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
Are we absolutely sure it went down exactly like this?
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
When yours truly was last among the Dubs, "Dirty Old Town" was VERY popular, indeed locals associated it WITH Dublin, which may not be the town the songwriter was thinking about, but which no native would deny is indeed a bit on the grimy side.
Duda helped by a disgraceful attempt by the government to get its base voters out by sending an SMS to all mobile phones telling them older people don’t have to wait in line to vote . The emergency SMS is only supposed to be used for natural disasters .
Personally think that IF the Dud loses, the heavy-handed Tammany Hall meets Secret Police methods of "Law and Justice" will prove to be a key factor in alienating Polish swing voters.
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
When yours truly was last among the Dubs, "Dirty Old Town" was VERY popular, indeed locals associated it WITH Dublin, which may not be the town the songwriter was thinking about, but which no native would deny is indeed a bit on the grimy side.
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
Are we absolutely sure it went down exactly like this?
Yes - in general the Dubliners I know (and Southern Irish in general) are not impressed by sectarian bollocks. Particularly of the show-off kind.
Remember when Princes Harry and William went to the Rugby at Croke Park? A couple of idiots tried to turn it into a thing and were told to go away.
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
When yours truly was last among the Dubs, "Dirty Old Town" was VERY popular, indeed locals associated it WITH Dublin, which may not be the town the songwriter was thinking about, but which no native would deny is indeed a bit on the grimy side.
Salford was the original "dirty old town"
Couldn't remember the place, but many Dubs knew that, and told me so. Still loved the song, because it spoke to them and was so true to THEIR home town. Am sure many folks from many places from Salford to Singapore have had same reaction.
The Lincoln Project is made up of former Tea Partiers, who have clearly decided that their political project has nothing to fear from a Biden presidency.
I wonder if in four years the GOP will be running somebody who's even more of a maniac than Trump and people like Mike will be celebrating ads by "principled" Trump supporters saying that this next candidate is a bridge too far.
That's a far more interesting question.
How do "populist" parties respond when they are no longer popular?
Normally, when a Party loses power after a longer or shorter period in office, it has two options, either, to maintain its position and hope the electorate comes back to it or to change its position to move to where the electorate now is (or where the Party thinks it is).
You'd think that process would be easy but it isn't and it can take parties out of power a long time to realise a) they aren't in power any more and b) how they are going to get back into power.
The problem the Republican Party has is that its more moderate supporters - the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries - have left them. It's not inconceivable that (if Trump wins again this year) that less than a quarter of voters will be registered Republicans by the end of 2024. And the smaller in number (and more fanatical and intellectually pure) the supporter base, the harder it is to tack away from extreme positions.
Moderates yes but the Republicans have not won Moderates since Reagan in 1984. Hillary won them by 11% in 2016.
It is Independents Trump needs to win again, he won them by 5% in 2016
My point is that moderate Republicans have left the party (hence the fall in the number of Registered Republicans), and that means that those that remain are more 'hard core'.
If the Democrats had nominated Warren or Sanders, I have no doubt that Trump would have won Independents again in 2020. With Biden, who may have dementia, but generally considered moderate, I think the Dems probably win Independents this time around.
If Biden does win independents he has likely won the presidency, agreed, given Obama won in 2012 even losing independents to Romney
You're not still thinking it'll be close are you?
If nothing changes, then I suspect Biden will walk it.
But it's a dangerous game to assume that nothing changes.
We could see the US economy recover strongly, which would go a long way to ensuring Trump's re-election.
Or we could see CV-19 continuing to drag the US economy South, even as much of the rest of the world recovers - which would pretty much doom him.
Yes indeed. But I do think the betting value is on a big Dem win. I sense that people and markets are being unduly influenced by 2 things. The memory of the shock in 2016. The horror of a Trump reelection causing emotional hedging. Mainly the first.
re: colors was once slightly uneasy in a Dublin chippy because I was wearing a bright red coat - though luckily also had on a green scarf.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
An entertaining moment was when on St Paddy's day, a bunch of Dutch guys rocked up in the very Irish pub I was in.
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
An acquaintance - not a friend - of mine, being thick and rather xenophobic, once went into a pub in Dublin for the sole purpose of ordering an Irish Car Bomb.
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Most people in Dublin are really quite relaxed.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
When yours truly was last among the Dubs, "Dirty Old Town" was VERY popular, indeed locals associated it WITH Dublin, which may not be the town the songwriter was thinking about, but which no native would deny is indeed a bit on the grimy side.
Salford was the original "dirty old town"
Couldn't remember the place, but many Dubs knew that, and told me so. Still loved the song, because it spoke to them and was so true to THEIR home town. Am sure many folks from many places from Salford to Singapore have had same reaction.
Yes, I've heard the song claimed for Glasgow, Dublin, London, New York, Chicago, Boston
But the provenance in this case is quite particular: it's Salford, Lancs
The Lincoln Project is made up of former Tea Partiers, who have clearly decided that their political project has nothing to fear from a Biden presidency.
I wonder if in four years the GOP will be running somebody who's even more of a maniac than Trump and people like Mike will be celebrating ads by "principled" Trump supporters saying that this next candidate is a bridge too far.
That's a far more interesting question.
How do "populist" parties respond when they are no longer popular?
Normally, when a Party loses power after a longer or shorter period in office, it has two options, either, to maintain its position and hope the electorate comes back to it or to change its position to move to where the electorate now is (or where the Party thinks it is).
You'd think that process would be easy but it isn't and it can take parties out of power a long time to realise a) they aren't in power any more and b) how they are going to get back into power.
The problem the Republican Party has is that its more moderate supporters - the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries - have left them. It's not inconceivable that (if Trump wins again this year) that less than a quarter of voters will be registered Republicans by the end of 2024. And the smaller in number (and more fanatical and intellectually pure) the supporter base, the harder it is to tack away from extreme positions.
Moderates yes but the Republicans have not won Moderates since Reagan in 1984. Hillary won them by 11% in 2016.
It is Independents Trump needs to win again, he won them by 5% in 2016
My point is that moderate Republicans have left the party (hence the fall in the number of Registered Republicans), and that means that those that remain are more 'hard core'.
If the Democrats had nominated Warren or Sanders, I have no doubt that Trump would have won Independents again in 2020. With Biden, who may have dementia, but generally considered moderate, I think the Dems probably win Independents this time around.
If Biden does win independents he has likely won the presidency, agreed, given Obama won in 2012 even losing independents to Romney
You're not still thinking it'll be close are you?
If nothing changes, then I suspect Biden will walk it.
But it's a dangerous game to assume that nothing changes.
We could see the US economy recover strongly, which would go a long way to ensuring Trump's re-election.
Or we could see CV-19 continuing to drag the US economy South, even as much of the rest of the world recovers - which would pretty much doom him.
Yes indeed. But I do think the betting value is on a big Dem win. I sense that people and markets are being unduly influenced by 2 things. The memory of the shock in 2016. The horror of a Trump reelection causing emotional hedging. Mainly the first.
Likelihood of significant economic uptick, let alone strong recovery, between now & November 3 is slim to none. Thanks in part to the obviously way-premature "reopen the economy" push by Trumpsky AND Republican governators.
The Lincoln Project is made up of former Tea Partiers, who have clearly decided that their political project has nothing to fear from a Biden presidency.
I wonder if in four years the GOP will be running somebody who's even more of a maniac than Trump and people like Mike will be celebrating ads by "principled" Trump supporters saying that this next candidate is a bridge too far.
That's a far more interesting question.
How do "populist" parties respond when they are no longer popular?
Normally, when a Party loses power after a longer or shorter period in office, it has two options, either, to maintain its position and hope the electorate comes back to it or to change its position to move to where the electorate now is (or where the Party thinks it is).
You'd think that process would be easy but it isn't and it can take parties out of power a long time to realise a) they aren't in power any more and b) how they are going to get back into power.
The problem the Republican Party has is that its more moderate supporters - the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries - have left them. It's not inconceivable that (if Trump wins again this year) that less than a quarter of voters will be registered Republicans by the end of 2024. And the smaller in number (and more fanatical and intellectually pure) the supporter base, the harder it is to tack away from extreme positions.
Moderates yes but the Republicans have not won Moderates since Reagan in 1984. Hillary won them by 11% in 2016.
It is Independents Trump needs to win again, he won them by 5% in 2016
My point is that moderate Republicans have left the party (hence the fall in the number of Registered Republicans), and that means that those that remain are more 'hard core'.
If the Democrats had nominated Warren or Sanders, I have no doubt that Trump would have won Independents again in 2020. With Biden, who may have dementia, but generally considered moderate, I think the Dems probably win Independents this time around.
If Biden does win independents he has likely won the presidency, agreed, given Obama won in 2012 even losing independents to Romney
You're not still thinking it'll be close are you?
If nothing changes, then I suspect Biden will walk it.
But it's a dangerous game to assume that nothing changes.
We could see the US economy recover strongly, which would go a long way to ensuring Trump's re-election.
Or we could see CV-19 continuing to drag the US economy South, even as much of the rest of the world recovers - which would pretty much doom him.
Yes indeed. But I do think the betting value is on a big Dem win. I sense that people and markets are being unduly influenced by 2 things. The memory of the shock in 2016. The horror of a Trump reelection causing emotional hedging. Mainly the first.
Likelihood of significant economic uptick, let alone strong recovery, between now & November 3 is slim to none. Thanks in part to the obviously way-premature "reopen the economy" push by Trumpsky AND Republican governators.
I would say that the "re-open" combined with the second peak is entirely responsible for making sure that there is no V shaped recovery before November.
If that hadn't happened, I think there was a moderate to small chance of such a recovery.
This disaster is now a wholly owned Trump/Republican property.
Let's have a PB contest about the best songs about towns!
My top 5
Baker Street: London White Boy With a Feather: New York Molly Malone: Dublin Chelsea Morning: New York Babylon: London
Which tells me all the best songs are about London or New York. But I may be biassed
Galveston. That's immense.
EDIT - it's about Galveston in Texas.
EDIT again - "I can hear your sea wings blowing"
Cracking song, by my favourite US reactionary muso. I believe Jimmy Webb was of a different politacal viewpoint from Glen, but there was a real synergy in their musical relationship. By the Time I get to Phoenix is another cracker.
So, your contention is that the number of Republicans dropped because the Republican Party was insufficiently Trumpian.
Well, that should be easy enough to confirm. If it's true, then the number of Registered Republicans should have risen since Trump became President and/or Trump's standing with Independents should be better than his standing with the population as a whole.
Unfortunately for your thesis:
(1) The number of Registered Republicans has dropped significantly in the last four years. In 2016, it was 32%, it's now 27-28%. So, President Trump has sped up the loss of voters from the Republican party. (10% of registered supporters in three and a half years is not an impressive achievement.)
(2) The evidence is that Independents don't particularly like Trump. According to Gallup, his approval numbers with them is 33% - that's five points worse than the population as a whole.
Apologies, Robert, I meant to come back to your earlier points.
MY question wasn't so much about the GOP - it could apply to any populist party which stops being popular.
To take the GOP as a case study, I think a lot depends on the scale of the 2020 defeat.
IF the Dems sweep the WH AND the Senate, the GOP will be shut out in a way not seen since 2008-10. This would allow them under normal circumstances to rapidly re-position as the party of opposition to "Washington" but if they have seen themselves as a form of opposition ("draining the swamp"), how will that work? Would the pro-Trump faction walk away en masse and hand the party back to the establishment or will they make a stand and initiate a bloodbath for the soul of the GOP?
IF the Dems win the WH but the GOP keep the Senate, it will be more nuanced. What the French call "co-habitation" isn't always unpopular with the voters and I suspect Biden would quite like a Senate majority formed moderate Democrats and Republicans leaving the pro-Trump Republicans powerless. A lot might depend on whether McConnell survives as Senate Majority Leader.
Stodge's Fourth Rule of Politics states "big defeats allow big changes". That doesn't mean they happen at once but the process is facilitated by the scale of the disaster.
The Lincoln Project is made up of former Tea Partiers, who have clearly decided that their political project has nothing to fear from a Biden presidency.
I wonder if in four years the GOP will be running somebody who's even more of a maniac than Trump and people like Mike will be celebrating ads by "principled" Trump supporters saying that this next candidate is a bridge too far.
That's a far more interesting question.
How do "populist" parties respond when they are no longer popular?
Normally, when a Party loses power after a longer or shorter period in office, it has two options, either, to maintain its position and hope the electorate comes back to it or to change its position to move to where the electorate now is (or where the Party thinks it is).
You'd think that process would be easy but it isn't and it can take parties out of power a long time to realise a) they aren't in power any more and b) how they are going to get back into power.
The problem the Republican Party has is that its more moderate supporters - the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries - have left them. It's not inconceivable that (if Trump wins again this year) that less than a quarter of voters will be registered Republicans by the end of 2024. And the smaller in number (and more fanatical and intellectually pure) the supporter base, the harder it is to tack away from extreme positions.
Can you explain why Republican (closed) primaries have seen healthy turnout despite it being essentially uncontested this year?
For exactly that reason: you have 80% of Registered Republicans being enthused with President Trump. And I mean, genuinely enthused. For the first time, they haven't had to compromise with the left of their party, and they have their man.
But you just claimed "moderate" Republicans, "the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries", have left them. So that doesn't explain how Trump has been getting contested-election level turnout unless you're claiming Trump supporters have registered R. Do registrations indicate this?
Many people who have left the Republicans over the years to become Independents are not "moderates", hence why they swung to Trump in 2016.
So, your contention is that the number of Republicans dropped because the Republican Party was insufficiently Trumpian.
Well, that should be easy enough to confirm. If it's true, then the number of Registered Republicans should have risen since Trump became President and/or Trump's standing with Independents should be better than his standing with the population as a whole.
No, my contention is that Republican registration has been dropping over the years for a variety of reasons, but the idea that it mainly due to neocon "moderates" is clearly false otherwise Independents wouldn't have gone for Trump. Ardent Trump supporters are usually not fans of the Republican party machine anymore than they are of the Democrats, and have little reason to register R. "Independents" are quite heterogeneous, some are Trumpian social conservatives but some are very progressive left. Independents are largely those disaffected by Washington politics in general, they are not in general people who are happy with Washington politics. There are many reasons why they are not happy with Trump, not being a "moderate" isn't necessarily one of them.
So, your contention is that the number of Republicans dropped because the Republican Party was insufficiently Trumpian.
Well, that should be easy enough to confirm. If it's true, then the number of Registered Republicans should have risen since Trump became President and/or Trump's standing with Independents should be better than his standing with the population as a whole.
Unfortunately for your thesis:
(1) The number of Registered Republicans has dropped significantly in the last four years. In 2016, it was 32%, it's now 27-28%. So, President Trump has sped up the loss of voters from the Republican party. (10% of registered supporters in three and a half years is not an impressive achievement.)
(2) The evidence is that Independents don't particularly like Trump. According to Gallup, his approval numbers with them is 33% - that's five points worse than the population as a whole.
Apologies, Robert, I meant to come back to your earlier points.
MY question wasn't so much about the GOP - it could apply to any populist party which stops being popular.
To take the GOP as a case study, I think a lot depends on the scale of the 2020 defeat.
IF the Dems sweep the WH AND the Senate, the GOP will be shut out in a way not seen since 2008-10. This would allow them under normal circumstances to rapidly re-position as the party of opposition to "Washington" but if they have seen themselves as a form of opposition ("draining the swamp"), how will that work? Would the pro-Trump faction walk away en masse and hand the party back to the establishment or will they make a stand and initiate a bloodbath for the soul of the GOP?
IF the Dems win the WH but the GOP keep the Senate, it will be more nuanced. What the French call "co-habitation" isn't always unpopular with the voters and I suspect Biden would quite like a Senate majority formed moderate Democrats and Republicans leaving the pro-Trump Republicans powerless. A lot might depend on whether McConnell survives as Senate Majority Leader.
Stodge's Fourth Rule of Politics states "big defeats allow big changes". That doesn't mean they happen at once but the process is facilitated by the scale of the disaster.
If Biden wins and the Dems retake the Senate and hold the House the GOP will almost certainly take at least the House in 2022 as they did in 2010 and as the Dems did in 2018
Let's have a PB contest about the best songs about towns!
My top 5
Baker Street: London White Boy With a Feather: New York Molly Malone: Dublin Chelsea Morning: New York Babylon: London
Which tells me all the best songs are about London or New York. But I may be biassed
Fake Tales of San Francisco, which is about Sheffield (and Rotherham) not San Francisco.
Sunshine on Leith (Edinburgh - or at least Leith).
Dirty Old Town (Salford).
Bar Italia (London).
Sweet Home Chicago (Chicago, obvs).
Sunshine on Leith is a glorious song
I was at a family wedding last year, in Lindos on Rhodes, which at night got completely out of hand when we entirely took over the town disco - 300 drunken guests - and we did call-and-response for the chorus of "I'm gonna be 500 miles", about seven times in a row
(the bride was half Scottish, the rest of us Celtic/English)
It was truly rousing. A wonderful night. We probably woke up people in Turkey
Fascinating to look at the crosstabs of the two Texas polls out this evening.
The Dallas Morning News (DMN) poll has Biden leading Trump 48-43 which is astonishing. Among Independents Biden leads 53-29.
The CBS News/YouGov shows a tie but Trump is up 46-45. Among Independents Trump leads 43-41.
Make of that what you will...
Which is another reason to be sceptical about pronouncing on Independents leanings based on polling outside the main campaign, we aren't going to get realistic samples of likely voters until the campaign begins in earnest.
Joe le taxi - Vanessa Paradis J’me voyais déjà - Charles Aznavour Paris en colère - Mireille Mathieu Lobo-hombre en Paris - La uniòn Les nuits parisiennes - Louise attaque
Route 66 - Chicago, St Louis, Oklahoma City, Amarillo, Gallup, Flagstaff, Winona, Kingman, Barstow, San Bernadino, Los Angeles.
Check out "I've Been Everywhere" in US version, also originally Aussie, etc.
I've been everywhere, man I've been everywhere, man Crossed the deserts bare, man I've breathed the mountain air, man Of travel I've had my share, man I've been everywhere
The Lincoln Project is made up of former Tea Partiers, who have clearly decided that their political project has nothing to fear from a Biden presidency.
I wonder if in four years the GOP will be running somebody who's even more of a maniac than Trump and people like Mike will be celebrating ads by "principled" Trump supporters saying that this next candidate is a bridge too far.
That's a far more interesting question.
How do "populist" parties respond when they are no longer popular?
Normally, when a Party loses power after a longer or shorter period in office, it has two options, either, to maintain its position and hope the electorate comes back to it or to change its position to move to where the electorate now is (or where the Party thinks it is).
You'd think that process would be easy but it isn't and it can take parties out of power a long time to realise a) they aren't in power any more and b) how they are going to get back into power.
The problem the Republican Party has is that its more moderate supporters - the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries - have left them. It's not inconceivable that (if Trump wins again this year) that less than a quarter of voters will be registered Republicans by the end of 2024. And the smaller in number (and more fanatical and intellectually pure) the supporter base, the harder it is to tack away from extreme positions.
Can you explain why Republican (closed) primaries have seen healthy turnout despite it being essentially uncontested this year?
For exactly that reason: you have 80% of Registered Republicans being enthused with President Trump. And I mean, genuinely enthused. For the first time, they haven't had to compromise with the left of their party, and they have their man.
But you just claimed "moderate" Republicans, "the people who register as Republicans and then vote in primaries", have left them. So that doesn't explain how Trump has been getting contested-election level turnout unless you're claiming Trump supporters have registered R. Do registrations indicate this?
Many people who have left the Republicans over the years to become Independents are not "moderates", hence why they swung to Trump in 2016.
So, your contention is that the number of Republicans dropped because the Republican Party was insufficiently Trumpian.
Well, that should be easy enough to confirm. If it's true, then the number of Registered Republicans should have risen since Trump became President and/or Trump's standing with Independents should be better than his standing with the population as a whole.
No, my contention is that Republican registration has been dropping over the years for a variety of reasons, but the idea that it mainly due to neocon "moderates" is clearly false otherwise Independents wouldn't have gone for Trump. Ardent Trump supporters are usually not fans of the Republican party machine anymore than they are of the Democrats, and have little reason to register R. "Independents" are quite heterogeneous, some are Trumpian social conservatives but some are very progressive left. Independents are largely those disaffected by Washington politics in general, they are not in general people who are happy with Washington politics. There are many reasons why they are not happy with Trump, not being a "moderate" isn't necessarily one of them.
"Ardent Trump supporters are usually not fans of the Republican party".
If that is the case, why does Trump have such high ratings with the Republicans that remain?
You seem to be picturing this elite group of Trump supporters, who are not registered Republicans. Where is the evidence for this group? His approval is only 33% among Independents, and of this 33%, fewer than half "strongly approve", so, we're talking about -what- 15% of Independents, who are 30% of the electorate. That's a hardcore 4.5% of the electorate who aren't Republicans and love President Trump.
Also, why did you use the word "neocon"? Do you think that moderates are particularly keen on invading other countries? Is that something you have polling evidence for?
You also need to address the question of why the Democrats have lost far fewer of their registered supporters. (Granted, some of this is the natural tendency of parties in power to become narrower churches.)
Let's have a PB contest about the best songs about towns!
My top 5
Baker Street: London White Boy With a Feather: New York Molly Malone: Dublin Chelsea Morning: New York Babylon: London
Which tells me all the best songs are about London or New York. But I may be biassed
Galveston. That's immense.
EDIT - it's about Galveston in Texas.
EDIT again - "I can hear your sea wings blowing"
Cracking song, by my favourite US reactionary muso. I believe Jimmy Webb was of a different politacal viewpoint from Glen, but there was a real synergy in their musical relationship. By the Time I get to Phoenix is another cracker.
Yes, love lots of their songs. Webb wrote G as a downbeat protest song but Glayun turned it into a feelgood romantic ballad. And one has to say it works better like that.
Joe le taxi - Vanessa Paradis J’me voyais déjà - Charles Aznavour Paris en colère - Mireille Mathieu Lobo-hombre en Paris - La uniòn Les nuits parisiennes - Louise attaque
Those are all a bit shit, no offence mon cher
It it weird how the French never really grasped the art of popular song. Despite their mastery in so many other forms
If Biden wins and the Dems retake the Senate and hold the House the GOP will almost certainly take at least the House in 2022 as they did in 2010 and as the Dems did in 2018
You're working on the "normal" assumption of things and you'd be right on that basis as was the case when the Dems captured the WH in 1992 and Gingrich's Republicans swept the House in 1994.
Is Trump's GOP the same Party as before or something different? Is it in effect little more than a cult of personality around the President and what happens to that once he is defeated and gone? Will the pro-Trump State and local leaders stay with the Party or will they be replaced by more "establishment" individuals who will revert the GOP to what it was pre-2016?
This is the question I've been posed - what happens to a populist party once it stops being popular? What is its raison d'etre?
Let's have a PB contest about the best songs about towns!
My top 5
Baker Street: London White Boy With a Feather: New York Molly Malone: Dublin Chelsea Morning: New York Babylon: London
Which tells me all the best songs are about London or New York. But I may be biassed
Galveston. That's immense.
EDIT - it's about Galveston in Texas.
EDIT again - "I can hear your sea wings blowing"
Cracking song, by my favourite US reactionary muso. I believe Jimmy Webb was of a different politacal viewpoint from Glen, but there was a real synergy in their musical relationship. By the Time I get to Phoenix is another cracker.
Yes, love lots of their songs. Webb wrote G as a downbeat protest song but Glayun turned it into a feelgood romantic ballad. And one has to say it works better like that.
However Galveston is sung (except as elevator music without lyrics) it is a VERY powerful anti-war song. Glenn Campbell did NOT take away from that, if anything he enhanced and strengthened the message.
Joe le taxi - Vanessa Paradis J’me voyais déjà - Charles Aznavour Paris en colère - Mireille Mathieu Lobo-hombre en Paris - La uniòn Les nuits parisiennes - Louise attaque
Those are all a bit shit, no offence mon cher
It it weird how the French never really grasped the art of popular song. Despite their mastery in so many other forms
Joe le taxi - Vanessa Paradis J’me voyais déjà - Charles Aznavour Paris en colère - Mireille Mathieu Lobo-hombre en Paris - La uniòn Les nuits parisiennes - Louise attaque
Those are all a bit shit, no offence mon cher
It it weird how the French never really grasped the art of popular song. Despite their mastery in so many other forms
Poland 2020 - Dud is winning eastern Poland (except I'm guess for City of Warsaw) while Mayor T is winning in western Poland,
Note that most of the latter was part of Germany and mostly occupied by ethnic Germans before WWII. Also that this east-west split is typical Polish post-Communist political pattern,
There's a surprising lack of great songs about Paris, or maybe they just don't pierce the Anglophone consciousness
Ghost Town is a good one, about Cov I think
It's a great track
I remember coming back from a cycling holiday in France to the news of the riots, with Ghost Town at number 1. Really the most perfect song for its time. Thatchers Britain at its trough.
Poland 2020 - Dud is winning eastern Poland (except I'm guess for City of Warsaw) while Mayor T is winning in western Poland,
Note that most of the latter was part of Germany and mostly occupied by ethnic Germans before WWII. Also that this east-west split is typical Polish post-Communist political pattern,
There is practically no trace of anything German left in that part of Poland.
Comments
Duda 50.4%
Well, that should be easy enough to confirm. If it's true, then the number of Registered Republicans should have risen since Trump became President and/or Trump's standing with Independents should be better than his standing with the population as a whole.
Unfortunately for your thesis:
(1) The number of Registered Republicans has dropped significantly in the last four years. In 2016, it was 32%, it's now 27-28%. So, President Trump has sped up the loss of voters from the Republican party. (10% of registered supporters in three and a half years is not an impressive achievement.)
(2) The evidence is that Independents don't particularly like Trump. According to Gallup, his approval numbers with them is 33% - that's five points worse than the population as a whole.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1282389832044613634?s=20
But it's a dangerous game to assume that nothing changes.
We could see the US economy recover strongly, which would go a long way to ensuring Trump's re-election.
Or we could see CV-19 continuing to drag the US economy South, even as much of the rest of the world recovers - which would pretty much doom him.
Not sure if exit poll factors in votes from abroad which would benefit Trzaskowski
Remember when Princes Harry and William went to the Rugby at Croke Park? A couple of idiots tried to turn it into a thing and were told to go away.
My top 5
Baker Street: London
White Boy With a Feather: New York
Molly Malone: Dublin
Chelsea Morning: New York
Babylon: London
Which tells me all the best songs are about London or New York. But I may be biassed
But the provenance in this case is quite particular: it's Salford, Lancs
EDIT - it's about Galveston in Texas.
EDIT again - "I can hear your sea wings blowing"
I LIVE BY THE RIVER
London has an incredible list of songs dedicated to its horrors/delights
Probably only NYC matches it maybe, or LA?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGpV0Ot3EeM
Particularly when it was used as an anthem to London in the worst Bond film in many years.....
Acres of Clams - Seattle
Here Come the Brides! - also LSeattle
Small Town - Seymour & Bloomington, Indiana
El Paso - Marty Robbins classic set in El Paso, Texas
El Lay Woman
Via Las Vegas
If that hadn't happened, I think there was a moderate to small chance of such a recovery.
This disaster is now a wholly owned Trump/Republican property.
Does Werewolves of London count?
New York and London do really dominate
There's a surprising lack of great songs about Paris, or maybe they just don't pierce the Anglophone consciousness
MY question wasn't so much about the GOP - it could apply to any populist party which stops being popular.
To take the GOP as a case study, I think a lot depends on the scale of the 2020 defeat.
IF the Dems sweep the WH AND the Senate, the GOP will be shut out in a way not seen since 2008-10. This would allow them under normal circumstances to rapidly re-position as the party of opposition to "Washington" but if they have seen themselves as a form of opposition ("draining the swamp"), how will that work? Would the pro-Trump faction walk away en masse and hand the party back to the establishment or will they make a stand and initiate a bloodbath for the soul of the GOP?
IF the Dems win the WH but the GOP keep the Senate, it will be more nuanced. What the French call "co-habitation" isn't always unpopular with the voters and I suspect Biden would quite like a Senate majority formed moderate Democrats and Republicans leaving the pro-Trump Republicans powerless. A lot might depend on whether McConnell survives as Senate Majority Leader.
Stodge's Fourth Rule of Politics states "big defeats allow big changes". That doesn't mean they happen at once but the process is facilitated by the scale of the disaster.
Desperadoes Under the Eaves (by Zevon of course) is a great song about LA, as is Babylon Sisters by Steely Dan
Last Time I Saw Paris
Sidewalks of New York - Al Smith's theme song
Chicago, Chicago - "that toddlin' town" whatever that means
Detroit City
Galveston - the greatest anti-war song every written
Wichita Lineman - another Jimmy Webb - Glen Campbell classic
Amarillo By Morning
Proud to Be an Okie from Muskogee
Riding on the City of New Orleans - about a train, not the town, but close enough
Battle of New Orleans - about Brits getting thrashed near NO, but again close enough
Side
Big Country, Steeltown - Corby
The Alarm, Deeside
Think very carefully before responding.
Sunshine on Leith (Edinburgh - or at least Leith).
Dirty Old Town (Salford).
Bar Italia (London).
Sweet Home Chicago (Chicago, obvs).
The Dallas Morning News (DMN) poll has Biden leading Trump 48-43 which is astonishing. Among Independents Biden leads 53-29.
The CBS News/YouGov shows a tie but Trump is up 46-45. Among Independents Trump leads 43-41.
Make of that what you will...
Chicken Town
Jackson - "We got married in a fever / Hotter than a pepper sprout / We've been talkin' 'bout Jackson / Ever since the fire went out"
Philadelphia Freedom
Is Anybody Going to San Antone (or to Phoenix, Arizona)?
Arrivederci Roma
The Girl from Ipanema
Kansas City - "I'm goin' to Kansas City - Kansas City, here I come"
I was at a family wedding last year, in Lindos on Rhodes, which at night got completely out of hand when we entirely took over the town disco - 300 drunken guests - and we did call-and-response for the chorus of "I'm gonna be 500 miles", about seven times in a row
(the bride was half Scottish, the rest of us Celtic/English)
It was truly rousing. A wonderful night. We probably woke up people in Turkey
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1282325913938665473?s=20
Deacon Blue - Raintown : Glasgow
Love & Money - Jocelyn Square : Glasgow
Hipsway - Tinder : Glasgow
Horse - Letter to Anne-Marie : Glasgow
J’me voyais déjà - Charles Aznavour
Paris en colère - Mireille Mathieu
Lobo-hombre en Paris - La uniòn
Les nuits parisiennes - Louise attaque
I've been everywhere, man
I've been everywhere, man
Crossed the deserts bare, man
I've breathed the mountain air, man
Of travel I've had my share, man
I've been everywhere
If that is the case, why does Trump have such high ratings with the Republicans that remain?
You seem to be picturing this elite group of Trump supporters, who are not registered Republicans. Where is the evidence for this group? His approval is only 33% among Independents, and of this 33%, fewer than half "strongly approve", so, we're talking about -what- 15% of Independents, who are 30% of the electorate. That's a hardcore 4.5% of the electorate who aren't Republicans and love President Trump.
Also, why did you use the word "neocon"? Do you think that moderates are particularly keen on invading other countries? Is that something you have polling evidence for?
You also need to address the question of why the Democrats have lost far fewer of their registered supporters. (Granted, some of this is the natural tendency of parties in power to become narrower churches.)
18-29: Trzaskowski 64% - 35% Duda
30-39: Trzaskowski 55% - 45% Duda
40-49: Trzaskowski 55% - 45% Duda
50-59: Trzaskowski 41% - 59% Duda
60+: Trzaskowski 38% - 62% Duda
It it weird how the French never really grasped the art of popular song. Despite their mastery in so many other forms
Is Trump's GOP the same Party as before or something different? Is it in effect little more than a cult of personality around the President and what happens to that once he is defeated and gone? Will the pro-Trump State and local leaders stay with the Party or will they be replaced by more "establishment" individuals who will revert the GOP to what it was pre-2016?
This is the question I've been posed - what happens to a populist party once it stops being popular? What is its raison d'etre?
Big Black Smoke by the Kinks similar for 1960s London.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBSO3_o2mFE
Drinking in LA
Bran Van 2000
Open Up
Leftfield
England (which is about the juxtaposition between London and Los Angeles)
The National
Sheryl Crowe
All I Want to Do
I like it even more.
Note that most of the latter was part of Germany and mostly occupied by ethnic Germans before WWII. Also that this east-west split is typical Polish post-Communist political pattern,
And Grandmaster Flash: the Message. An epochal, pivotal pop song but also viscerally about New York of the day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PobrSpMwKk4
Duda 45% versus Trzaskowski 55%
US expat vote breaks for more conservative candidate - but not this year.