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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lincoln Project’s response to Trump’s pardon of convicted
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lincoln Project’s response to Trump’s pardon of convicted felon Roger Stone
There’s little doubt that Trump’s pardon of advisor, Roger Stone, only days before he was due to start a prison sentence is a huge moment in this election campaign.
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I wonder if in four years the GOP will be running somebody who's even more of a maniac than Trump and people like Mike will be celebrating ads by "principled" Trump supporters saying that this next candidate is a bridge too far.
https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1282331436691980288?s=20
Polls close in Poland at 8pm BST and my prediction is that Duda will win the second round of the presidential election with 51.2% of the vote.
Thanks to Alastair for the recent article and apologies to everyone who has had a punt on Trzaskowski, but I will be absolutely amazed if Duda loses.
Always ready to be proved wrong of course!
Thanks
DC
How do "populist" parties respond when they are no longer popular?
Normally, when a Party loses power after a longer or shorter period in office, it has two options, either, to maintain its position and hope the electorate comes back to it or to change its position to move to where the electorate now is (or where the Party thinks it is).
You'd think that process would be easy but it isn't and it can take parties out of power a long time to realise a) they aren't in power any more and b) how they are going to get back into power.
Tammy and Susan Rice both on 6.4
Crossover?
Although I believe Green was a Remainer to be fair
It’s a shame he threw it away like that as he really deserved a century. Exquisite innings in what could have been a tricky chase.
On topic, what is the difference between Trump’s judgement and Bigfoot?
There’s some evidence for the existence of Bigfoot.
Maybe this is a quality Windies team rather than us being dreadful.
Is that true?
The leaders of the tea party - according to a 2010 Washington Post survey - were Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Jim DeMint, Ron Paul, and Michele Bachmann.
The first two of those became big Trump boosters, the third worked in the Trump White House. The fourth has retired, but his son has been a Trump fan (of late, at least). I have no idea about Michele Bachmann.
The Lincoln Project, according to Wikpedia is led by Steve Schmidt (McCain, Schwarzneggar and George W Bush campaigns) and George Conway. The former of those is definitely no tea party-er, while George Conway might be one, but his sole real claim to fame was being one of Paula Jones's lawyers.
It's not clear to me that the Lincoln Project is run by "former Tea Partiers".
Look before you leap.
Though young Fucker DID burnish his Trumpsky cred by having his chief writer (the brains behind the pretty boy) get fired by Fox News when he was outed as author of years worth of racist, sexist and otherwise vile, anonymous web postings.
Let’s hope Root can stiffen the batting and a new keeper is brought in to raise the standard of England’s fielding.
And perhaps I shouldn’t forget many of these same England cricketers thrashed South Africa at home just six months ago.
But there are clearly weaknesses for England that need addressing. The batting just seems very fragile.
Btw "Independents" =/= "moderates"
England underperformed again. They have the talent but somehow just don't click. The batting is clearly the problem but it's not an easy fix since the fundamental issue is that so many good players don't adjust to Test conditions. The number of times you see good players getting in but not going on suggests a mind-set problem, and I'm not sure how you deal with that.
The selectors will come in for criticism but for once I'd cut them some slack. How do you pick a side during a pandemic when no serious cricket has been played for months? Changes will be made for the next Test but you'd like to see a more coherent approach informing the whole process, rather than just tinkering.
I expect Denley will give way to Crawley who will move up to three. Broad will replace Anderson. That would give a side that should win, but so should the one they chose this time.
IF you believe that, then have some beach-front property in Wyoming you should snap up immediately.
https://twitter.com/RudyGiuliani/status/1282354165390422017?s=20
The problem is that Registered Republicans used to be 40% of voters (or even more than that if, you want to go back to the start of Reagan's Presidency), and are now 27-28%.
Now, sometimes someone is an intellectual giant, who moves the political centre of gravity with their successes. Mrs Thatcher is an example of that and whose provable successes move voters from across the spectrum towards them. People didn't vote for Mrs Thatcher, they may even have opposed her policies, but they saw that they worked, and that moved the political centre of gravity.
That's not happening in the US. Trump doesn't have any great successes, outside making legal immigration to the US somewhat harder. (And clamping down on L-1 visas is a fairly niche obsession.) He's not got American manufacturing moving, and he's not made the rust belt better (four of the five rust belt states are in the bottom ten growing states in the US over the course of his Presidency).
Actually, I'm being harsh. He has made the economy grow slightly faster by increasing the deficit - and this is pre-CV19 - to a level only seen in five years in the post War period. His economic success is don't tax, and do spend - which might work in the short term, but sure as shit isn't a long-term strategy for success.
The death rate remains extraordinarily low so either we are going to see a huge increase soon as the time-lag unwinds, or some explanation as to how and why Florida is different to everywhere else.
> Democratic presidential race also virtually uncontested post-Super Tuesday.
> In many states, highly contested GOP primaries (and also some Democratic ones) for US Senator, Governor, US House, other offices.
> In most jurisdictions, Republicans have higher turnout than Democrats for demographic reasons such as age & income.
> Covid has further skewed numbers in various ways & degrees; generally least disruption in states with large % of vote cast by mail BEFORE the pandemic, as contrasted with states where laws, regulations & logistics NOT ready to cope with sudden increase in postal voting.
In other words, THEIR tent is bigger than that of US branch of the Putinist International.
If you want the best keeper, pick Foakes. If you want a batsman who can keep, pick Bracey. If you keep picking Butler accept you get neither.
Better to leave him to take over as white ball captain in due course and have an amazing career there along with Bairstow and Roy.
Also - great match.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1282325640432230401?s=20
Take back control... of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The Brit Nat nature of the Brexit project becomes ever clearer.
Hillary won them by 11% in 2016.
It is Independents Trump needs to win again, he won them by 5% in 2016
If you take a packed lunch, carry on working from home.
If you buy your lunch from Pret, get your arse back in to the office.
They don't even pretend to be following scientific advice any more.
I do believe we have seen over the last week or two that Trump is definitely standing. It would be quite a surprise if he wins either the EC or the popular vote, but either way prising him out of office may be a struggle.
If the Democrats had nominated Warren or Sanders, I have no doubt that Trump would have won Independents again in 2020. With Biden, who may have dementia, but generally considered moderate, I think the Dems probably win Independents this time around.
Eric Kaufmann:
"Something unusual is happening among Britain’s youngest voters, known as Generation Z or the Zoomers. Increasingly, those under the age of 22 seem to be diverging from voters aged between 22 and 39, and appear considerably more conservative, to the point where today’s 18-year-olds are about as right-wing as 40 year-olds.
How might this be explained? Are Zoomers just more irreverent, reacting against their politically-correct older siblings? Or is it that Britain’s newest voters are simply too young to have been shaped by the Brexit shock? Whatever the explanation, in the immediate post-Brexit years the youngest voters were 40 points more liberal than the oldest. Today they are only 20 points more to the Left."
https://unherd.com/2020/07/are-the-jordan-peterson-generation-of-zoomers-turning-right/
TX - wow
FL - ditto
It is as much Tea Party as Momentum is a Blarite project run by Peter Mandelson.
And a question for the PB Journalists - Braintree? Pendle?
Many people who have left the Republicans over the years to become Independents are not "moderates", hence why they swung to Trump in 2016.
Unless it backs away and finds more moderate voices it doesn't look mainstream.
I'm not knocking the team, or even the selectors particularly, but would just like to see a bit more consistency from both.
While Biden is busy building a coalition. Of everyone else. Including what used to be the left and centre of the Republican party...
Barry inherited and for a time managed his family's Phoenix department store BUT his political appeal was NOT because he was a business tycoon (even are pseudo one like Trumpsky) but was instead based on (very) conservative ideology. Of which "free enterprise" was but one component.
Or as we Colonials say, a self-radicalizing circle jerk.
True either way!
I've just heard a duck quack.
Shurely brown or black? (Or Blue in Ireland.)
Starmer might manage that with Labour.
In December 1972 pundits were predicting demise of Democratic Party. And four years later witnessed election of Jimmy Carter.
That's US not UK of course. AND it did take GOP not one, not two, not three, not four but FIVE presidential elections to regain the presidency after Hoobert Hever's 1932 defenestration. AND also took Democrats five elections to regain the White House after self-destructing and thus electing Abraham Lincoln in 1860.
But think that two-party system tends to lend itself more to short-term come-backs than long-term dominance by any one party. In part because #1 party tends to factionalize quicker & worse-er than #2.
BTW the chippy was in Stoneybatter which methought was rather apt.
Son very happy (works on two levels).
Who knew?
They had just come from watching Oranje play in a nearby Dutch bar.
In a brilliant display of oratorical skill that I have no memory of, I stopped a potential riot long enough to explain the mistake to both sides.
The Dutch guys all bought Irish ruby shirts from behind the bar - it was a rugby pub. Not a single punch was thrown.
Trumpton hasn’t had a lead there in any poll since March IIRC. But, even so, fuck me!
Up to 200 workers have been told to self-isolate on the farm where they pick crops after 73 colleagues tested positive for Covid-19.
Vegetable producers A S Green and Co, in Herefordshire, has gone into lockdown after the positive tests.
Food and other essential supplies are being delivered to the farm, where the workers have been segregated into the mobile homes they live in.
The firm is also being supported by Public Health England (PHE).
Herefordshire Council, which has organised the supply of deliveries, believes the outbreak is "contained" on the farm.
A Deliberate Fucking Idiot.
In 1948, Strom Thurmond as 3rd-party States Right Democrat (aka "Dixiecrat") carried same states as Goldwater EXCEPT for Georgia (Truman won)
In 1968, George Wallace as 3rd-party American Independent carried Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Georgia but NOT South Carolina, which went for Richard Nixon thanks in large measure to now-Republican US Sen. Strom Thurmond.
In 2020, think Trumpsky likely to win AR, LA, MS, AL & SC, but believe he will lose AZ and possibly even GA.
https://tvpstream.vod.tvp.pl/
https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-07-12/wieczor-wyborczy-polska-wybiera-wybory-prezydenckie-2020-ogladaj/?ref=slider
Something else about Poland is that the vote count (as with Chile) tends to be a big "dump" of results at intervals, rather than live counts available for multiple precincts as in most countries - I wonder whether the Polish approach makes it easier to fix the result if that's what is needed?
I still do not know how he got out alive.
Of the kind who'd had to leave NI because of the peace process.
I think it was the only place he felt at home.
I was there for a friends wedding. In the pub, I asked the guy playing a guitar and signing if he could play "Dirty Old Town" - a favourite of the groom to be.
A pillock overheard my accent and shouted out - "Only after you sing The Men Behind The Wire".
Without missing a beat the guy with the guitar replied for me - "Only after you sing Good King Billy".
Which bought the house down. Said pillock left. On his own.
What does he mean by the terms "liberal" and "left" such that he thinks they can be compared?
In my book, the so-called liberal-left consists of small-minded petty-authoritarians.