CNN: Donald Trump's niece Mary Trump levels scathing criticism of the President in her forthcoming book, accusing him of being a "sociopath" and charging that Trump's "hubris and willful ignorance" dating back to his early days threatens the country.
Mary Trump's book, "Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man," accuses Donald Trump's father of creating a toxic family dynamic that best explains how the President acts today. Mary Trump, whose father, Freddy Trump, died following struggles with alcoholism, writes that she could "no longer remain silent" following the past three years of Trump's presidency.
This may not have much impact on the November Election. Mercifully the Orange One has done relatively little damage in his four years. Now admittedly I am setting the bar pretty low here because there were serious concerns he might start a nuclear conflagration and he has not only not done so but by and large he's managed to avoid inflicting much damage in the international arena. I guess the treachery in respect of the Kurds ranks pretty bad, but otherwise the damage has been fairly abstract and measurable mainly in terms of the US's reputation abroad.
Domestically he has wasted a strong economy and helped the rich at the expense of the poor, but it could easily have been worse.
I doubt MT's book will tell us much about him we didn't know or couldn't have guessed at. It will be fun for enemies, but irrelevant for his supporters. If he loses in Novemeber I doubt the book will be the reason.
Re: the hit-and-run spook's spouse, well the traditional way to settle such matters is, what ya got to trade that we might want?
Can any PBers think of an answer to this riddle?
Note that in 1919, King George VI was NOT eager to lend a helping hand to his cousin and look-a-like, Czar Nicholas II. As a result, the case of Nicki & family was terminated by Soviets with extreme prejudice.
Betcha that future King would be just as unwilling to lift a finger to assist yet another royal relative in serious jeopardy IF there is the slightest risk to the throne in so doing.
The proof in the pudding, as they say, will come in the next 3 rounds of local elections.
If Labour aren't gaining oodles of local council seats, they're in trouble.
All things being equal the normal 2021 elections should be very good for Labour, they were last up for election in 2017 when the Tories did really well and people thought the Tories were on course for a 294 seat majority in the general election.
The 2021 County Council elections will give the LDs a chance to come back in the suburban and rural south and west (though all the local Tories seem to tell me the region is becoming more solidly blue by the day).
The 2022 London locals will be fascinating as well. The Conservatives are down to just over 500 Councillors in London and have lost seats at every contest since 2002. The LDs collapsed through the Coalition years but made some headway last time but Labour has more than twice the number of Councillors as the Conservatives and it's hard to see that changing currently.
CNN: Donald Trump's niece Mary Trump levels scathing criticism of the President in her forthcoming book, accusing him of being a "sociopath" and charging that Trump's "hubris and willful ignorance" dating back to his early days threatens the country.
Mary Trump's book, "Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man," accuses Donald Trump's father of creating a toxic family dynamic that best explains how the President acts today. Mary Trump, whose father, Freddy Trump, died following struggles with alcoholism, writes that she could "no longer remain silent" following the past three years of Trump's presidency.
This may not have much impact on the November Election. Mercifully the Orange One has done relatively little damage in his four years. Now admittedly I am setting the bar pretty low here because there were serious concerns he might start a nuclear conflagration and he has not only not done so but by and large he's managed to avoid inflicting much damage in the international arena. I guess the treachery in respect of the Kurds ranks pretty bad, but otherwise the damage has been fairly abstract and measurable mainly in terms of the US's reputation abroad.
Domestically he has wasted a strong economy and helped the rich at the expense of the poor, but it could easily have been worse.
I doubt MT's book will tell us much about him we didn't know or couldn't have guessed at. It will be fun for enemies, but irrelevant for his supporters. If he loses in Novemeber I doubt the book will be the reason.
Real must read this season is Bolton';s book. Which Trumpsky is also failing to suppress.
CNN: Donald Trump's niece Mary Trump levels scathing criticism of the President in her forthcoming book, accusing him of being a "sociopath" and charging that Trump's "hubris and willful ignorance" dating back to his early days threatens the country.
Mary Trump's book, "Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man," accuses Donald Trump's father of creating a toxic family dynamic that best explains how the President acts today. Mary Trump, whose father, Freddy Trump, died following struggles with alcoholism, writes that she could "no longer remain silent" following the past three years of Trump's presidency.
This may not have much impact on the November Election. Mercifully the Orange One has done relatively little damage in his four years. Now admittedly I am setting the bar pretty low here because there were serious concerns he might start a nuclear conflagration and he has not only not done so but by and large he's managed to avoid inflicting much damage in the international arena. I guess the treachery in respect of the Kurds ranks pretty bad, but otherwise the damage has been fairly abstract and measurable mainly in terms of the US's reputation abroad.
Domestically he has wasted a strong economy and helped the rich at the expense of the poor, but it could easily have been worse.
I doubt MT's book will tell us much about him we didn't know or couldn't have guessed at. It will be fun for enemies, but irrelevant for his supporters. If he loses in Novemeber I doubt the book will be the reason.
It's astonishing how little damage he's done.
What's more astonishing is that he's probably done some good for the economy.
I've no idea how he turns village-idiocy into sense. He does though.
Similarly, Trans Women who still have penises demanding access to Women only spaces - like refuges - where women are fleeing violent men.
Or women's changing rooms. Sport is a big issue too.
You ain;t a women, and you ain't mixing with women in these situations, till you've changed your bits, for me. But by all means do that with my full support.
The issue has cropped up at the Ladies Pond in Highgate, where I believe transgenders have been welcomed with civility and common sense.
What about the female changing rooms at the local leisure centre, with hoards of girls under ten?
These are similar to arguments used when homosexuality was decriminalised/the age of the consent was reduced.
You'd have gays hanging outside schools.
The fear didn't match the reality.
Yeah but in this case the fear would be having hairy female b*llocks swinging around in front of five year olds.
Is it really too much too ask to get people to have treatment if they want to transition? its free FFS.
A friend is at 28 months and counting waiting for their first appointment at the gender clinic.
That's just the first appointment, if she wants surgery it would be months if not years after that appointment before they could get reffered for surgery.
Re: the hit-and-run spook's spouse, well the traditional way to settle such matters is, what ya got to trade that we might want?
Can any PBers think of an answer to this riddle?
Note that in 1919, King George VI was NOT eager to lend a helping hand to his cousin and look-a-like, Czar Nicholas II. As a result, the case of Nicki & family was terminated by Soviets with extreme prejudice
King George V. And the murders were in 1918, not 1919.
I've said before the care homes scandal is the one area for which (apart from the true partisans) there isn't going to be much sympathy for Johnson or Hancock. I think the latter should resign over what has happened by the way.
I understand, having seen what was happening in Northern Italy and elsewhere, there was a real fear a widespread outbreak would overwhelm ICU beds in particular but hospitals in general.
A decision was taken to clear the hospitals and again I get that but to what extent, if any, were patients tested for Covid-19 before being released? It was already well established the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions were particularly vulnerable to Covid-19 in a way other parts of the population weren't.
Releasing untested patients back to care homes was a catastrophe in the making and if it was done in the full knowledge such individuals could transmit the virus through the care home population even worse. It doesn't matter what happened in Spain, Italy or France or to use their experiences as cover. Hancock is the Health Minister for England and part of the UK Government and therefore must accept a degree of responsibility for actions taken by those in or linked to his Department.
As for the care homes, this is the other aspect of the scandal. Many local councils have long since outsourced the running of the homes to groups like Anchor under long term contract but all such places (and indeed all private and public residential facilities) should be under the regimen of the CQC and frequent inspections.
The local authorities go through the assessment process and try to find what they can based on the circumstances prevailing and the current system isn't fir for purpose - we all know that. The Conservative fixation on inheritance is one thing but the fact is we all support the public care homes through Council Tax and general taxation.
It's part of a long overdue and much needed debate about how we treat the elderly in our society - what should life be like when you are 70, 80, 90 or beyond? It shouldn't be a life of confusion, pain and loneliness but for some it is but should we be empowering families to take care of elderly relatives at home? Should we be looking at greater tax breaks for carers, building houses for extended families rather than more and more flats?
Imagine the outcry if the Tories had looked after the private sector care homes whilst people were piling up in the State Hospital corridors.
There were plenty of NHS homes for "gentlefolk", I was brought up on an estate next to one, St Georges in Hornchurch. Currently being bulldozed
Heck, let us have His Foul Lowness, we'll give you Ms Hit-and-Run on a platter. AND at long last recognize the divine right of the Queen and her (non-felonious) successors to reign over Machias Seal Island in perpetuity.
Similarly, Trans Women who still have penises demanding access to Women only spaces - like refuges - where women are fleeing violent men.
Or women's changing rooms. Sport is a big issue too.
You ain;t a women, and you ain't mixing with women in these situations, till you've changed your bits, for me. But by all means do that with my full support.
The issue has cropped up at the Ladies Pond in Highgate, where I believe transgenders have been welcomed with civility and common sense.
As far as I can see. the toilet issue is, at the moment, something of a sideshow
A bigger issue is sport, where there is a clear and huge incentive for male athletes to transition, and win big, thus displanting "biological women"
Re: the hit-and-run spook's spouse, well the traditional way to settle such matters is, what ya got to trade that we might want?
Can any PBers think of an answer to this riddle?
Note that in 1919, King George VI was NOT eager to lend a helping hand to his cousin and look-a-like, Czar Nicholas II. As a result, the case of Nicki & family was terminated by Soviets with extreme prejudice
King George V. And the murders were in 1918, not 1919.
Drat - those doggone Roman numerals again! Talk about yer et tu, brute?
Re: the hit-and-run spook's spouse, well the traditional way to settle such matters is, what ya got to trade that we might want?
Can any PBers think of an answer to this riddle?
Note that in 1919, King George VI was NOT eager to lend a helping hand to his cousin and look-a-like, Czar Nicholas II. As a result, the case of Nicki & family was terminated by Soviets with extreme prejudice
King George V. And the murders were in 1918, not 1919.
Was using old-style calendar (semi-reformed Mayan)
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
The guy who played him in The Crown seemed pretty good.
Similarly, Trans Women who still have penises demanding access to Women only spaces - like refuges - where women are fleeing violent men.
Or women's changing rooms. Sport is a big issue too.
You ain;t a women, and you ain't mixing with women in these situations, till you've changed your bits, for me. But by all means do that with my full support.
The issue has cropped up at the Ladies Pond in Highgate, where I believe transgenders have been welcomed with civility and common sense.
What about the female changing rooms at the local leisure centre, with hoards of girls under ten?
These are similar to arguments used when homosexuality was decriminalised/the age of the consent was reduced.
You'd have gays hanging outside schools.
The fear didn't match the reality.
Yeah but in this case the fear would be having hairy female b*llocks swinging around in front of five year olds.
Is it really too much too ask to get people to have treatment if they want to transition? its free FFS.
A friend is at 28 months and counting waiting for their first appointment at the gender clinic.
That's just the first appointment, if she wants surgery it would be months if not years after that appointment before they could get reffered for surgery.
If the NHS has issues argue for them to be fixed. No reason to do an end-run around treatment.
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
The guy who played him in The Crown seemed pretty good.
I still haven't gotten over an American playing Sir Winston Churchill.
Similarly, Trans Women who still have penises demanding access to Women only spaces - like refuges - where women are fleeing violent men.
Or women's changing rooms. Sport is a big issue too.
You ain;t a women, and you ain't mixing with women in these situations, till you've changed your bits, for me. But by all means do that with my full support.
The issue has cropped up at the Ladies Pond in Highgate, where I believe transgenders have been welcomed with civility and common sense.
As far as I can see. the toilet issue is, at the moment, something of a sideshow
A bigger issue is sport, where there is a clear and huge incentive for male athletes to transition, and win big, thus displanting "biological women"
Similarly, Trans Women who still have penises demanding access to Women only spaces - like refuges - where women are fleeing violent men.
Or women's changing rooms. Sport is a big issue too.
You ain;t a women, and you ain't mixing with women in these situations, till you've changed your bits, for me. But by all means do that with my full support.
The issue has cropped up at the Ladies Pond in Highgate, where I believe transgenders have been welcomed with civility and common sense.
As far as I can see. the toilet issue is, at the moment, something of a sideshow
A bigger issue is sport, where there is a clear and huge incentive for male athletes to transition, and win big, thus displanting "biological women"
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
The guy who played him in The Crown seemed pretty good.
I still haven't gotten over an American playing Sir Winston Churchill.
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
The guy who played him in The Crown seemed pretty good.
I still haven't gotten over an American playing Sir Winston Churchill.
But he was brilliant! Far better than Gary Oldman.
Mary Trump's book, "Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man," ...
Her family created Putin too???
Trumpsky's family made their first fortune in Seattle & Klondike frauds & whorehouses. Then when great-grand-daddy tried to apply for German citizenship, the turned him down flat. Partly for being a draft-dodger, but mostly for being a pimp & shyster.
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
The guy who played him in The Crown seemed pretty good.
I still haven't gotten over an American playing Sir Winston Churchill.
TBF, he was of mixed parentage.
Indeed, have to say Gary Oldman's portrayal of Churchill really was brilliant, he was unrecognisable.
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
The guy who played him in The Crown seemed pretty good.
I still haven't gotten over an American playing Sir Winston Churchill.
But he was brilliant! Far better than Gary Oldman.
He was, that intro into Westminster Abbey was something else, I vow to thee my country has permanently earwormed me.
Mary Trump's book, "Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man," ...
Her family created Putin too???
Trumpsky's family made their first fortune in Seattle & Klondike frauds & whorehouses. Then when great-grand-daddy tried to apply for German citizenship, the turned him down flat. Partly for being a draft-dodger, but mostly for being a pimp & shyster.
The apple has NOT fallen far from the tree.
Aw, poor Donald - he never stood a chance in life, did he?
Mary Trump's book, "Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man," ...
Her family created Putin too???
Trumpsky's family made their first fortune in Seattle & Klondike frauds & whorehouses. Then when great-grand-daddy tried to apply for German citizenship, the turned him down flat. Partly for being a draft-dodger, but mostly for being a pimp & shyster.
The apple has NOT fallen far from the tree.
Aw, poor Donald - he never stood a chance in life, did he?
Well, his sister the federal judge managed to make good. But then she probably has a brain & a heart, and gives a damn.
On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:
Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%
Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%
Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%
PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.
If yoiu voted Tory in December, why would you not do so now? The vast majority of people have been largely observing this crisis, rather than experiencing it. The government's hubris and incompetence have gifted Labour a recovery of sorts because the party now has a competent leader, but you cannot undo years of self-harm in the space of a few months. As you say, it is a longer project than that - and one that will take place as many more people than now are on the front line of the economic fall-out from the crisis.
I suspect that quite a few people who voted Tory last December now have a much lower opinion of Johnson and would switch their votes as a result. The fact that Corbyn has departed and Brexit is already much less of a salient issue makes that even more likely.
Re: the hit-and-run spook's spouse, well the traditional way to settle such matters is, what ya got to trade that we might want?
Can any PBers think of an answer to this riddle?
Note that in 1919, King George VI was NOT eager to lend a helping hand to his cousin and look-a-like, Czar Nicholas II. As a result, the case of Nicki & family was terminated by Soviets with extreme prejudice
King George V. And the murders were in 1918, not 1919.
Was using old-style calendar (semi-reformed Mayan)
On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:
Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%
Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%
Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%
PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.
If yoiu voted Tory in December, why would you not do so now? The vast majority of people have been largely observing this crisis, rather than experiencing it. The government's hubris and incompetence have gifted Labour a recovery of sorts because the party now has a competent leader, but you cannot undo years of self-harm in the space of a few months. As you say, it is a longer project than that - and one that will take place as many more people than now are on the front line of the economic fall-out from the crisis.
I suspect that quite a few people who voted Tory last December now have a much lower opinion of Johnson and would switch their votes as a result. The fact that Corbyn has departed and Brexit is already much less of a salient issue makes that even more likely.
Yes, plenty of people voted Tory to "Get Brexit Done", voting for anybody else (The Brexit Party aside) meant more attempts to stop it ever happening. The fact that Labour's leader was one of the main architects of trying to stop it ever happening might give people pause for thought though. Maybe he will be able to say "I told you so" if it turns out bad, though
Similarly, Trans Women who still have penises demanding access to Women only spaces - like refuges - where women are fleeing violent men.
Or women's changing rooms. Sport is a big issue too.
You ain;t a women, and you ain't mixing with women in these situations, till you've changed your bits, for me. But by all means do that with my full support.
The issue has cropped up at the Ladies Pond in Highgate, where I believe transgenders have been welcomed with civility and common sense.
As far as I can see. the toilet issue is, at the moment, something of a sideshow
A bigger issue is sport, where there is a clear and huge incentive for male athletes to transition, and win big, thus displanting "biological women"
Re: the hit-and-run spook's spouse, well the traditional way to settle such matters is, what ya got to trade that we might want?
Can any PBers think of an answer to this riddle?
Note that in 1919, King George VI was NOT eager to lend a helping hand to his cousin and look-a-like, Czar Nicholas II. As a result, the case of Nicki & family was terminated by Soviets with extreme prejudice
King George V. And the murders were in 1918, not 1919.
Was using old-style calendar (semi-reformed Mayan)
George VI didn't become King until 1936!
In THIS universe. But my mind is NOT bound by the constraints that seem to shackle your own!
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
I think it's very unfair to Eden to compare him with Boris.
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
The guy who played him in The Crown seemed pretty good.
I still haven't gotten over an American playing Sir Winston Churchill.
To get a feel for how Boris rather resembles Sir Anthony in a VERY weird way, imagine a movie about the Suez Crisis with role of Eden played by the late John Candy,
The guy who played him in The Crown seemed pretty good.
I still haven't gotten over an American playing Sir Winston Churchill.
TBF, he was of mixed parentage.
Indeed, have to say Gary Oldman's portrayal of Churchill really was brilliant, he was unrecognisable.
The film was ruined by the silly plebian tube scene though.
Similarly, Trans Women who still have penises demanding access to Women only spaces - like refuges - where women are fleeing violent men.
Or women's changing rooms. Sport is a big issue too.
You ain;t a women, and you ain't mixing with women in these situations, till you've changed your bits, for me. But by all means do that with my full support.
The issue has cropped up at the Ladies Pond in Highgate, where I believe transgenders have been welcomed with civility and common sense.
As far as I can see. the toilet issue is, at the moment, something of a sideshow
A bigger issue is sport, where there is a clear and huge incentive for male athletes to transition, and win big, thus displanting "biological women"
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
That's why David Herdson and I quit the party.
He's taken the party down a fundamentally unconservative route.
Just look at the approach of Cummings and Francois to the armed forces and their generals.
Brexit is the God that all else must be sacrificed for.
THIS is the UK Establishment's greatest failure. Not care homes, not quarantine, not belated lockdown, it is the awful negative messaging, and ongoing weak messaging, on the Wearing of Masks
And the scientists are just as much to blame as the politicians. Right at the start the deputy CMO was saying masks are "actively harmful". Jonathan Van Tam was saying "Oh no, don't wear a mask"
They either lied, obviously, or they were criminally stupid. Of course masks fucking work. That's why everyone in East Asia wears one and they have almost zero covid deaths compared to us.
Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world.
It is wickedly negligent. Careers must end over this
Have you been to Motherwell? This looks bloody brilliant compared with the rest of it, and I hope the tourist board snap up the rights to use on their brochures.
THIS is the UK Establishment's greatest failure. Not care homes, not quarantine, not belated lockdown, it is the awful negative messaging, and ongoing weak messaging, on the Wearing of Masks
And the scientists are just as much to blame as the politicians. Right at the start the deputy CMO was saying masks are "actively harmful". Jonathan Van Tam was saying "Oh no, don't wear a mask"
They either lied, obviously, or they were criminally stupid. Of course masks fucking work. That's why everyone in East Asia wears one and they have almost zero covid deaths compared to us.
Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world.
It is wickedly negligent. Careers must end over this
For once, I’ve a great deal of sympathy with your hyperbolic tendency.
A strong retort. Rowling is nevertheless spouting a lot of drivel on this topic.
I don't understand the TERF wars, but can you tell me one single important thing that JKR has said, on this subject, that is obviously "drivel"?
As far as I can see she just talks common sense most of the time, or at least the common sense of ten years back.
But I accept my ignorance and am happy to be educated. If you would be so kind.
Long ago, I tried my hand at science fiction.
One attempt was a short story - time traveller arrives in the future. He recounts his views - all the finest, kindest saintly ideas you can conceive of.
His hosts are so horrific that they re-invent the death penalty. They can't even tell him why - his ideas are too horrific for them to express.
Maybe that will end up being seen as quite prescient?
I often wonder if I slipped into a coma now and magically awoke in ten years time and opened by mouth using 2010s language: would I be arrested?
"Us and them" narrative again. This is how Starmer is intending to play the game over the next five years.
A few policies would be good though
But not yet. How many did Thatcher have in mid-1975?
I absolutely agree. We're probably four years out from a General Election, and the time oppositions want to start rolling a serious number of policies out is 18 months out at the earliest.
Focus on embedding an impression of the current administration early in the Parliament, and seal the deal by establishing you have the energy and ideas to replace them later on. People aren't even focussed on possible replacement governments yet as that isn't on the agenda for quite a while. So wait.
Also, going too early means you have policies on things (potentially with large price tags) that aren't relevant to the debate in 2024. There is no point spending masses of time on your legislative agenda for the 2020-21 (or 2021-22, or 2022-23) Parliament because the point is entirely moot.
I'm guessing, but that looks like one of those times when a Sir Humphrey Junior is asked, out of context, 'how do we treat the tax liability of private companies health testing for staff?', with an answer along the lines of 'yeh they're a benefit in kind and therefore taxable'.
Without anyone ever thinking, hang on, might we want to consider exempting Covid tests given we're in the middle of a pandemic?
Even as a local level, it is amazing how many decisions, quite low down the pecking order, are made without even a thought to current circumstances, or political impact.
'This is how we've always done things' runs deep in the public sector. It needs really attentive ministers to stop it from happening.
On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:
Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%
Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%
Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%
PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.
Very Likely?
How long did it take Labour to recover from the Winter of Discontent and the Longest Suicide Note in History?
How long did it take the Conservatives to recover from Black Wednesday and Sleaze?
How long will it take Labour to recover from the Great Financial Crash, Corbyn and Anti-Semitism?
I suggest that four years would be unprecedented in its rapidity. That polling result rather suggests that Johnson underperformed in the 2019GE.
Indeed, after they lost power in 1979 it took Labour 18 years to win a majority again, same for the Tories for whom it also took 18 years to win another majority after they lost power in 1997.
In 1992 voters were not ready for Kinnock to be PM or a Labour government, in 2010 voters were ready for Cameron to be PM but not yet a Tory majority government.
Starrmer may find himself in a similar position as Cameron which suggests largest party in a hung parliament is his best prospect
But had Kinnock faced Thatcher again in 1992 he might well have become PM. As it was, he could probably have limited Major to a 2017 type result - had he kept control of himself at Sheffield.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
Without Boris, they definitely go. Thats the problem.
There is, as far as I have experienced, no more electable Tory than Boris amongst our new voting demographic.
This is also very encouraging regarding the likelihood of effective vaccines:
Longitudinal isolation of potent near-germline SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing antibodies from COVID-19 patients https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30821-7 The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has unprecedented implications for public health, social life, and world economy. Since approved drugs and vaccines are not available, new options for COVID-19 treatment and prevention are highly demanded. To identify SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies, we analysed the antibody response of 12 COVID-19 patients from 8 to 69 days post diagnosis. By screening 4,313 SARS-CoV-2-reactive B cells, we isolated 255 antibodies from different time points as early as 8 days post diagnosis. Of these, 28 potently neutralized authentic SARS-CoV-2 (IC100 as low as 0.04 μg/ml), showing a broad spectrum of V genes and low levels of somatic mutations. Interestingly, potential precursors were identified in naïve B cell repertoires from 48 healthy individuals that were sampled before the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies are readily generated from a diverse pool of precursors, fostering the hope of rapid induction of a protective immune response upon vaccination.
FPT: I learned everything I needed to know about Johnson and his ilk working as a waiter when I was a teenager, in a town with a university popular with English public school Oxbridge rejects. The casual rudeness to those considered their social inferiors is entirely familiar. It's no surprise to see him blaming the working class and immigrant workforce, mostly women, who've been risking their own health and wellbeing in minimum wage jobs in the care sector, for the mistakes of his government.
Everything you needed to know from some ra spilling your beer when they gave it to you?
I think more research is needed.
Also, Johnson and his ilk weren't in Durham (I'm guessing). They were in Oxford. Which is not as good as being in Cambridge, I grant you.
Only Living Boy is Scottish, so could be St Andrews? One of our nat posters at the time of the indyref was psychologically scarred by his experience of braying toffs at St Andrews. Who knows, it may even be the same person, though it was a different name.
You have correctly identified the town. I wasn't at university there, though. I had further exposure to these people at university later on, which confirmed earlier impressions. It wasn't me posting back in 2014, I was a Unionist then. I still like to observe how high-up people interact with waiting staff, it is an excellent way of obtaining insights into their character. In case you think I'm being partisan, John Major scores very highly in this regard.
“I was a Unionist then.”
Should I say Welcome Aboard! or are you still wavering?
I'm never going to be a full blooded Scot Nat for a range of reasons not the least of which is I live in London. But the Brexit referendum proved to me that the Union is not a healthy construct for Scotland, so independence it is. Thank you for your welcome.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
Without Boris, they definitely go. Thats the problem.
There is, as far as I have experienced, no more electable Tory than Boris amongst our new voting demographic.
THIS is the UK Establishment's greatest failure. Not care homes, not quarantine, not belated lockdown, it is the awful negative messaging, and ongoing weak messaging, on the Wearing of Masks
And the scientists are just as much to blame as the politicians. Right at the start the deputy CMO was saying masks are "actively harmful". Jonathan Van Tam was saying "Oh no, don't wear a mask"
They either lied, obviously, or they were criminally stupid. Of course masks fucking work. That's why everyone in East Asia wears one and they have almost zero covid deaths compared to us.
Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world.
It is wickedly negligent. Careers must end over this
The last chance to do this well was as part of the unlockdown. All those photo ops of Ministers shopping, going to the pub, having their hair cut. (And SKS has missed a trick here). Not a mask between them.
Whether that's "job done" wishful thinking or just that the communications genii have turned out to be not so clever after all, it's now a really obvious way to get a bit more freedom for everything else.
THIS is the UK Establishment's greatest failure. Not care homes, not quarantine, not belated lockdown, it is the awful negative messaging, and ongoing weak messaging, on the Wearing of Masks
And the scientists are just as much to blame as the politicians. Right at the start the deputy CMO was saying masks are "actively harmful". Jonathan Van Tam was saying "Oh no, don't wear a mask"
They either lied, obviously, or they were criminally stupid. Of course masks fucking work. That's why everyone in East Asia wears one and they have almost zero covid deaths compared to us.
Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world.
It is wickedly negligent. Careers must end over this
For once, I’ve a great deal of sympathy with your hyperbolic tendency.
The saddest thing is, if they had been firm from the start about masks, Britons would have obeyed. As we have seen, the British have been very obedient under lockdown.
We have worked from home, we have abandoned public transport, we have kept our social distance, most people have been mature and sensible.
So if the idiot scientists and wanker politicians had possessed an ounce of common sense, they would have said from the beginning, Yes please wear a face covering, try and keep the good masks for health workers, for now.
And then when we definitely had enough PPE for the NHS, they could have gone further and said Right, now it's time to go compulsory: always wear a mask/face covering in shops, buildings, trains etc
Firm consistent messaging from boffins and pols, hardening over time, could have saved thousands of lives, and 5% of our economy.
The Czech Republic managed it. They did exactly this.
On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:
Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%
Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%
Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%
PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.
That 23% Ready vs. 54% Not Ready To Govern figure for Labour is devastating - Starmer is the lipstick on a very, very ugly pig.
The last five years have taken Labour so far off the deep end that the public consider the Corbynite snarl, not the bland smile of the boring man in the suit, to be the true face of the party. And they have good reason to do so - as the saying goes, 'When someone shows you who they are, believe them'.
Labour has shown us plenty.
The proof in the pudding, as they say, will come in the next 3 rounds of local elections.
If Labour aren't gaining oodles of local council seats, they're in trouble.
All things being equal the normal 2021 elections should be very good for Labour, they were last up for election in 2017 when the Tories did really well and people thought the Tories were on course for a 294 seat majority in the general election.
That is true - though worth recalling that the May 2017 elections did not confirm the massive Tory lead being suggested by the polls - the projected Tory vote share lead was 11% rather than in excess of 20%.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
Without Boris, they definitely go. Thats the problem.
There is, as far as I have experienced, no more electable Tory than Boris amongst our new voting demographic.
I thought that about Theresa May, but Boris topped her vote.
THIS is the UK Establishment's greatest failure. Not care homes, not quarantine, not belated lockdown, it is the awful negative messaging, and ongoing weak messaging, on the Wearing of Masks
And the scientists are just as much to blame as the politicians. Right at the start the deputy CMO was saying masks are "actively harmful". Jonathan Van Tam was saying "Oh no, don't wear a mask"
They either lied, obviously, or they were criminally stupid. Of course masks fucking work. That's why everyone in East Asia wears one and they have almost zero covid deaths compared to us.
Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world.
It is wickedly negligent. Careers must end over this
For once, I’ve a great deal of sympathy with your hyperbolic tendency.
The saddest thing is, if they had been firm from the start about masks, Britons would have obeyed. As we have seen, the British have been very obedient under lockdown.
We have worked from home, we have abandoned public transport, we have kept our social distance, most people have been mature and sensible.
So if the idiot scientists and wanker politicians had possessed an ounce of common sense, they would have said from the beginning, Yes please wear a face covering, try and keep the good masks for health workers, for now.
And then when we definitely had enough PPE for the NHS, they could have gone further and said Right, now it's time to go compulsory: always wear a mask/face covering in shops, buildings, trains etc
Firm consistent messaging from boffins and pols, hardening over time, could have saved thousands of lives, and 5% of our economy.
The Czech Republic managed it. They did exactly this.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
Without Boris, they definitely go. Thats the problem.
There is, as far as I have experienced, no more electable Tory than Boris amongst our new voting demographic.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
Without Boris, they definitely go. Thats the problem.
There is, as far as I have experienced, no more electable Tory than Boris amongst our new voting demographic.
I thought that about Theresa May, but Boris topped her vote.
He's done his job. That was 2019.
He won't be an asset by 2024, and he's not one now as he's shedding credibility and respect all the time, so I'd like to see him go next year please.
Get a competent Tory adminstration for the last 3 years to actually deliver.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
The Tories will probably dump Johnson before the election if this continues. Winning elections is more important to them than personalities.
That's absolutely great news. Hopefully it gives a good enough immune response that lasts long enough for a mass immunisation programme in a few months.
THIS is the UK Establishment's greatest failure. Not care homes, not quarantine, not belated lockdown, it is the awful negative messaging, and ongoing weak messaging, on the Wearing of Masks
And the scientists are just as much to blame as the politicians. Right at the start the deputy CMO was saying masks are "actively harmful". Jonathan Van Tam was saying "Oh no, don't wear a mask"
They either lied, obviously, or they were criminally stupid. Of course masks fucking work. That's why everyone in East Asia wears one and they have almost zero covid deaths compared to us.
Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world.
It is wickedly negligent. Careers must end over this
For once, I’ve a great deal of sympathy with your hyperbolic tendency.
The saddest thing is, if they had been firm from the start about masks, Britons would have obeyed. As we have seen, the British have been very obedient under lockdown.
We have worked from home, we have abandoned public transport, we have kept our social distance, most people have been mature and sensible.
So if the idiot scientists and wanker politicians had possessed an ounce of common sense, they would have said from the beginning, Yes please wear a face covering, try and keep the good masks for health workers, for now.
And then when we definitely had enough PPE for the NHS, they could have gone further and said Right, now it's time to go compulsory: always wear a mask/face covering in shops, buildings, trains etc
Firm consistent messaging from boffins and pols, hardening over time, could have saved thousands of lives, and 5% of our economy.
The Czech Republic managed it. They did exactly this.
A goodbye coronavirus party? They're asking for it, aren't they.
Perhaps (though it is outdoors). But otherwise, G is quite right.
Similarly, Trans Women who still have penises demanding access to Women only spaces - like refuges - where women are fleeing violent men.
Or women's changing rooms. Sport is a big issue too.
You ain;t a women, and you ain't mixing with women in these situations, till you've changed your bits, for me. But by all means do that with my full support.
The issue has cropped up at the Ladies Pond in Highgate, where I believe transgenders have been welcomed with civility and common sense.
On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:
Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%
Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%
Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%
PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.
Very Likely?
How long did it take Labour to recover from the Winter of Discontent and the Longest Suicide Note in History?
How long did it take the Conservatives to recover from Black Wednesday and Sleaze?
How long will it take Labour to recover from the Great Financial Crash, Corbyn and Anti-Semitism?
I suggest that four years would be unprecedented in its rapidity. That polling result rather suggests that Johnson underperformed in the 2019GE.
Indeed, after they lost power in 1979 it took Labour 18 years to win a majority again, same for the Tories for whom it also took 18 years to win another majority after they lost power in 1997.
In 1992 voters were not ready for Kinnock to be PM or a Labour government, in 2010 voters were ready for Cameron to be PM but not yet a Tory majority government.
Starrmer may find himself in a similar position as Cameron which suggests largest party in a hung parliament is his best prospect
But had Kinnock faced Thatcher again in 1992 he might well have become PM. As it was, he could probably have limited Major to a 2017 type result - had he kept control of himself at Sheffield.
Possibly, possibly not but the fact was he enabled the Tories to win a 4th consecutive term for the only time since universal suffrage.
Plus if Boris turned out to have Thatcher like fall in popularity he could be replaced by Sunak as a John Major figure
That's absolutely great news. Hopefully it gives a good enough immune response that lasts long enough for a mass immunisation programme in a few months.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
That's why David Herdson and I quit the party.
He's taken the party down a fundamentally unconservative route.
Just look at the approach of Cummings and Francois to the armed forces and their generals.
Brexit is the God that all else must be sacrificed for.
Why is David such an assiduous (and excellent) tweeter but no longer posts beneath the line on here anymore?
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
Without Boris, they definitely go. Thats the problem.
There is, as far as I have experienced, no more electable Tory than Boris amongst our new voting demographic.
That's absolutely great news. Hopefully it gives a good enough immune response that lasts long enough for a mass immunisation programme in a few months.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
Without Boris, they definitely go. Thats the problem.
There is, as far as I have experienced, no more electable Tory than Boris amongst our new voting demographic.
That was then this is now
That's what you kept saying when people queried your opinion that the Lib Dems were going to win 50 odd seats last December because they were going to cancel Brexit.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
The Tories will probably dump Johnson before the election if this continues. Winning elections is more important to them than personalities.
It wasn't when Hague and IDS were preferred to Ken Clarke
On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:
Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%
Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%
Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%
PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.
Very Likely?
How long did it take Labour to recover from the Winter of Discontent and the Longest Suicide Note in History?
How long did it take the Conservatives to recover from Black Wednesday and Sleaze?
How long will it take Labour to recover from the Great Financial Crash, Corbyn and Anti-Semitism?
I suggest that four years would be unprecedented in its rapidity. That polling result rather suggests that Johnson underperformed in the 2019GE.
Indeed, after they lost power in 1979 it took Labour 18 years to win a majority again, same for the Tories for whom it also took 18 years to win another majority after they lost power in 1997.
In 1992 voters were not ready for Kinnock to be PM or a Labour government, in 2010 voters were ready for Cameron to be PM but not yet a Tory majority government.
Starrmer may find himself in a similar position as Cameron which suggests largest party in a hung parliament is his best prospect
But had Kinnock faced Thatcher again in 1992 he might well have become PM. As it was, he could probably have limited Major to a 2017 type result - had he kept control of himself at Sheffield.
Possibly, possibly not but the fact was he enabled the Tories to win a 4th consecutive term for the only time since universal suffrage.
Plus if Boris turned out to have Thatcher like fall in popularity he could be replaced by Sunak as a John Major figure
79-83-87-92? (And all those were full terms with majorities, whereas 10-15-17-19 included two minority governments, as well as covering a shorter time span, even if the next election is in 2024).
Also, splendid as Sunak is in many ways (and is young enough to take over after a 2024 defeat and still have a decent term as PM to look forward to), we don't know what he's like when he has to take the punchbowl away, and how the public will respond to that. Besides- if Johnson falls from grace this early in his Premiership, it's a very different dynamic to Thatcher's going-a-bit-mad-after-ten-glorious-years. You'd have to question the judgement of the people who put him there.
Possibly, possibly not but the fact was he enabled the Tories to win a 4th consecutive term for the only time since universal suffrage.
Plus if Boris turned out to have Thatcher like fall in popularity he could be replaced by Sunak as a John Major figure
I suspect had the 1992 result been different the 1997 result would have been as well.
Winning a small but workable majority in 1992 was followed by the heaviest defeat the Conservatives have suffered under universal suffrage. In 1906 they got fewer seats admittedly but on all other measures 1997 was a dire result and 2001 not much better.
THIS is the UK Establishment's greatest failure. Not care homes, not quarantine, not belated lockdown, it is the awful negative messaging, and ongoing weak messaging, on the Wearing of Masks
And the scientists are just as much to blame as the politicians. Right at the start the deputy CMO was saying masks are "actively harmful". Jonathan Van Tam was saying "Oh no, don't wear a mask"
They either lied, obviously, or they were criminally stupid. Of course masks fucking work. That's why everyone in East Asia wears one and they have almost zero covid deaths compared to us.
Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world.
It is wickedly negligent. Careers must end over this
For once, I’ve a great deal of sympathy with your hyperbolic tendency.
The saddest thing is, if they had been firm from the start about masks, Britons would have obeyed. As we have seen, the British have been very obedient under lockdown.
We have worked from home, we have abandoned public transport, we have kept our social distance, most people have been mature and sensible.
So if the idiot scientists and wanker politicians had possessed an ounce of common sense, they would have said from the beginning, Yes please wear a face covering, try and keep the good masks for health workers, for now.
And then when we definitely had enough PPE for the NHS, they could have gone further and said Right, now it's time to go compulsory: always wear a mask/face covering in shops, buildings, trains etc
Firm consistent messaging from boffins and pols, hardening over time, could have saved thousands of lives, and 5% of our economy.
The Czech Republic managed it. They did exactly this.
CNN - madness: The Trump administration has notified Congress and the United Nations that the United States is formally withdrawing from the World Health Organization, multiple officials tell CNN, a move that comes amid a rising number of coronavirus cases throughout the Americas in the last week alone.
a) They are warming to Starmer b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone. c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot. d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys. e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.
A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.
That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
That's why David Herdson and I quit the party.
He's taken the party down a fundamentally unconservative route.
Just look at the approach of Cummings and Francois to the armed forces and their generals.
Brexit is the God that all else must be sacrificed for.
Why is David such an assiduous (and excellent) tweeter but no longer posts beneath the line on here anymore?
On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:
Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%
Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%
Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%
PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.
Very Likely?
How long did it take Labour to recover from the Winter of Discontent and the Longest Suicide Note in History?
How long did it take the Conservatives to recover from Black Wednesday and Sleaze?
How long will it take Labour to recover from the Great Financial Crash, Corbyn and Anti-Semitism?
I suggest that four years would be unprecedented in its rapidity. That polling result rather suggests that Johnson underperformed in the 2019GE.
Indeed, after they lost power in 1979 it took Labour 18 years to win a majority again, same for the Tories for whom it also took 18 years to win another majority after they lost power in 1997.
In 1992 voters were not ready for Kinnock to be PM or a Labour government, in 2010 voters were ready for Cameron to be PM but not yet a Tory majority government.
Starrmer may find himself in a similar position as Cameron which suggests largest party in a hung parliament is his best prospect
But had Kinnock faced Thatcher again in 1992 he might well have become PM. As it was, he could probably have limited Major to a 2017 type result - had he kept control of himself at Sheffield.
Possibly, possibly not but the fact was he enabled the Tories to win a 4th consecutive term for the only time since universal suffrage.
Plus if Boris turned out to have Thatcher like fall in popularity he could be replaced by Sunak as a John Major figure
79-83-87-92? (And all those were full terms with majorities, whereas 10-15-17-19 included two minority governments, as well as covering a shorter time span, even if the next election is in 2024).
Also, splendid as Sunak is in many ways (and is young enough to take over after a 2024 defeat and still have a decent term as PM to look forward to), we don't know what he's like when he has to take the punchbowl away, and how the public will respond to that. Besides- if Johnson falls from grace this early in his Premiership, it's a very different dynamic to Thatcher's going-a-bit-mad-after-ten-glorious-years. You'd have to question the judgement of the people who put him there.
Basically if Brexit is going well then no need to replace Boris, if Brexit is going badly and we end up on WTO terms unless Sunak says he will realign with the single market for a trade deal with the EU replacing Boris with him will make little difference but of course doing that would rip the party apart as hard Brexiteers would go beserk as it would be a policy identical to Starmer's
Possibly, possibly not but the fact was he enabled the Tories to win a 4th consecutive term for the only time since universal suffrage.
Plus if Boris turned out to have Thatcher like fall in popularity he could be replaced by Sunak as a John Major figure
I suspect had the 1992 result been different the 1997 result would have been as well.
Winning a small but workable majority in 1992 was followed by the heaviest defeat the Conservatives have suffered under universal suffrage. In 1906 they got fewer seats admittedly but on all other measures 1997 was a dire result and 2001 not much better.
1997 would likely have been Heseltine v Kinnock rather than Major v Blair had the Tories lost in 1992
Comments
Domestically he has wasted a strong economy and helped the rich at the expense of the poor, but it could easily have been worse.
I doubt MT's book will tell us much about him we didn't know or couldn't have guessed at. It will be fun for enemies, but irrelevant for his supporters. If he loses in Novemeber I doubt the book will be the reason.
Can any PBers think of an answer to this riddle?
Note that in 1919, King George VI was NOT eager to lend a helping hand to his cousin and look-a-like, Czar Nicholas II. As a result, the case of Nicki & family was terminated by Soviets with extreme prejudice.
Betcha that future King would be just as unwilling to lift a finger to assist yet another royal relative in serious jeopardy IF there is the slightest risk to the throne in so doing.
The 2022 London locals will be fascinating as well. The Conservatives are down to just over 500 Councillors in London and have lost seats at every contest since 2002. The LDs collapsed through the Coalition years but made some headway last time but Labour has more than twice the number of Councillors as the Conservatives and it's hard to see that changing currently.
What's more astonishing is that he's probably done some good for the economy.
I've no idea how he turns village-idiocy into sense. He does though.
That's just the first appointment, if she wants surgery it would be months if not years after that appointment before they could get reffered for surgery.
There were plenty of NHS homes for "gentlefolk", I was brought up on an estate next to one, St Georges in Hornchurch. Currently being bulldozed
A bigger issue is sport, where there is a clear and huge incentive for male athletes to transition, and win big, thus displanting "biological women"
https://www.wired.com/story/the-glorious-victories-of-trans-athletes-are-shaking-up-sports/
The apple has NOT fallen far from the tree.
https://twitter.com/DougMDSueRN/status/1280587558506786822?s=20
Note the pineapple:
http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=292394
could start competing at the Olympics in women's events.
If the Tokyo Olympics had gone ahead, it is likely a trans athlete would have won a gold.
This is becoming a major problem for women's sports.
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1280283199445311488
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1280295159037558785
Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.
He needs to be junked soon.
Walk around a town or city centre and you soon realise.
He's taken the party down a fundamentally unconservative route.
Just look at the approach of Cummings and Francois to the armed forces and their generals.
Brexit is the God that all else must be sacrificed for.
I hope soon to be corrected.
https://twitter.com/RoshanaMN/status/1280552092629860354
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1280295169305255937?s=20
THIS is the UK Establishment's greatest failure. Not care homes, not quarantine, not belated lockdown, it is the awful negative messaging, and ongoing weak messaging, on the Wearing of Masks
And the scientists are just as much to blame as the politicians. Right at the start the deputy CMO was saying masks are "actively harmful". Jonathan Van Tam was saying "Oh no, don't wear a mask"
They either lied, obviously, or they were criminally stupid. Of course masks fucking work. That's why everyone in East Asia wears one and they have almost zero covid deaths compared to us.
Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world.
It is wickedly negligent. Careers must end over this
No idea if that’s true, but if it is, means much quicker results.
I often wonder if I slipped into a coma now and magically awoke in ten years time and opened by mouth using 2010s language: would I be arrested?
Focus on embedding an impression of the current administration early in the Parliament, and seal the deal by establishing you have the energy and ideas to replace them later on. People aren't even focussed on possible replacement governments yet as that isn't on the agenda for quite a while. So wait.
Also, going too early means you have policies on things (potentially with large price tags) that aren't relevant to the debate in 2024. There is no point spending masses of time on your legislative agenda for the 2020-21 (or 2021-22, or 2022-23) Parliament because the point is entirely moot.
Without anyone ever thinking, hang on, might we want to consider exempting Covid tests given we're in the middle of a pandemic?
Even as a local level, it is amazing how many decisions, quite low down the pecking order, are made without even a thought to current circumstances, or political impact.
'This is how we've always done things' runs deep in the public sector. It needs really attentive ministers to stop it from happening.
There is, as far as I have experienced, no more electable Tory than Boris amongst our new voting demographic.
Longitudinal isolation of potent near-germline SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing antibodies from COVID-19 patients
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30821-7
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has unprecedented implications for public health, social life, and world economy. Since approved drugs and vaccines are not available, new options for COVID-19 treatment and prevention are highly demanded. To identify SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies, we analysed the antibody response of 12 COVID-19 patients from 8 to 69 days post diagnosis. By screening 4,313 SARS-CoV-2-reactive B cells, we isolated 255 antibodies from different time points as early as 8 days post diagnosis. Of these, 28 potently neutralized authentic SARS-CoV-2 (IC100 as low as 0.04 μg/ml), showing a broad spectrum of V genes and low levels of somatic mutations. Interestingly, potential precursors were identified in naïve B cell repertoires from 48 healthy individuals that were sampled before the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies are readily generated from a diverse pool of precursors, fostering the hope of rapid induction of a protective immune response upon vaccination.
Whether that's "job done" wishful thinking or just that the communications genii have turned out to be not so clever after all, it's now a really obvious way to get a bit more freedom for everything else.
We have worked from home, we have abandoned public transport, we have kept our social distance, most people have been mature and sensible.
So if the idiot scientists and wanker politicians had possessed an ounce of common sense, they would have said from the beginning, Yes please wear a face covering, try and keep the good masks for health workers, for now.
And then when we definitely had enough PPE for the NHS, they could have gone further and said Right, now it's time to go compulsory: always wear a mask/face covering in shops, buildings, trains etc
Firm consistent messaging from boffins and pols, hardening over time, could have saved thousands of lives, and 5% of our economy.
The Czech Republic managed it. They did exactly this.
https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1278466183759454208?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxDKW75ueIU
He won't be an asset by 2024, and he's not one now as he's shedding credibility and respect all the time, so I'd like to see him go next year please.
Get a competent Tory adminstration for the last 3 years to actually deliver.
But otherwise, G is quite right.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/row-erupts-after-hampstead-heath-womens-pool-allows-transgender-bathers-a3729056.html
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/strictly-orthodox-women-to-mobilise-against-opening-hampstead-heath-ladies-pond-to-trans-swimmers-1.484633
Plus if Boris turned out to have Thatcher like fall in popularity he could be replaced by Sunak as a John Major figure
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/07/almost-one-in-six-britons-say-would-refuse-covid-19-vaccine
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
The party depends on the polling, currently the Tories still lead
Also, splendid as Sunak is in many ways (and is young enough to take over after a 2024 defeat and still have a decent term as PM to look forward to), we don't know what he's like when he has to take the punchbowl away, and how the public will respond to that. Besides- if Johnson falls from grace this early in his Premiership, it's a very different dynamic to Thatcher's going-a-bit-mad-after-ten-glorious-years. You'd have to question the judgement of the people who put him there.
Winning a small but workable majority in 1992 was followed by the heaviest defeat the Conservatives have suffered under universal suffrage. In 1906 they got fewer seats admittedly but on all other measures 1997 was a dire result and 2001 not much better.
https://twitter.com/JeremyWesthead/status/1280597038447636480