Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Across all pollsters the Tories are retaining a clear lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Across all pollsters the Tories are retaining a clear lead
One of the oddest features of current next general election polling is how little there is of it at the moment. The main pollsters of yesteryear, ICM and Populus are not heard of much in this context and even YouGov has only been issuing new polls every few weeks. The last published survey from them finalised its fieldwork on June 12th – which is getting on for a month ago.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/07/07/yougov_polling_biden_skeptics_are_moderate_democrats_143640.html
It feels a bit 2015 redux at the moment, the supplementaries are indicating Sir Keir is much better than Boris Johnson.
There is a theory as to why some countries/regions are getting rebounds in cases, whereas others, behaving identically, are not.
Take two as an example. Israel and Denmark.
They are both affluent, advanced countries. They have similar sized populations and similar population density. Both have good health care. Both flattened the curve early, then did unlockdown
Israel reported 522 new cases today.
Denmark reported.... 10.
So what's happening? The theory is that it's aircon.
Israel is a hot country in summer and it's often much more comfortable to be inside during the heat of the day. Down in the south - Eilat, the Negev it is unbearable and you HAVE to get inside for aircon.
Denmark has cool summers like ours, they barely need aircon. Few places use it.
Aircon is probably spreading this. Aircon explains (in part) the surge in the southern USA as the weather has really warmed up.
Of course Boris can help, and so far has proved fairly amenable, but long way to go.
A time lag effect?
Something causing a lot of hesitation among switchers? If so- what?
His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.
Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.
Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck
I've heard you're a well travelled lady. What do you reckon ?
Air-con is ubiquitous in Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, where they have stinking hot humidity, but the virus is dormant there.
But I am still sure it is a vector. It is recycled air. It's the perfect way to infect whole rooms of people.
IIRC therr was a study of infection in a THai (?) restaurant which pinned down the air con unit's intake of infected air and spread it to part (only) of the room. The paper had very nice graphics but I cannot remember where it was!
I know Starmer looks like he was cast in a tv show to play a Prime Minister - vaguely distinguished looking older white man.
I love the way they write:
Elimination
Reduction to zero new infections spread among people living in a country and the presence of the measures necessary to prevent or deal with imported cases and associated spread from new arrivals (e.g. New Zealand).
Without spelling out what that would entail:
Entry to New Zealand
The New Zealand border is currently closed to almost all arrivals.
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/new-zealand/entry-requirements
The New Zealand border closed on the 19th of March - 110 days ago.
If they are recommending that they should spell it out.
But I hope you are wrong because it means that Britain is fecked when Autumn comes and we all crowd into the pubs to escape the rain
Something is causing the gap- whoever works it out wins.
Does anyone want the original spreadsheet?
I agree that Gavin Williamson has been over-promoted by orders of magnitude and would struggle to impress in a parish council. He should be gone tomorrow.
I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
Some actions very clearly do make things worse though, and we've plenty of examples of that.
It's pretty clear that catching this outdoors is HARD. Thank God.
But........ we are are a country with short summers.
Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader
of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%
Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or
does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%
Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready
for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%
PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/06/keir-starmer-to-sign-up-for-unconscious-bias-training-amid-criticism
That said, at home, we do not turn it on until we have a long spell into the 30s, and it is set at 23C, not 19. Likewise, in winter, we don't use the central heating until it is in the low teens outside, and then set it to 19.
Plus love it or hate it (guessing with you it's b) ) it's of the zeitgeist.
https://twitter.com/WiganCouncil/status/1280470692778201095?s=20
It would help if he would get that shitbag Sacoolas back from the US to face trial for killing the kid on the motor-bike, but I expect he needs a different POTUS to achieve that.
Work colleagues (Pre christmas) -> Family (Christmas) -> Friends (NYE).
Whilst loads of that is going to be cancelled (Office crimbo in particular I expect) it's still a heady mix nationwide. Least it's not family last, that'd be the worst order.
The source of deaths and cases at the moment is the care sector we've been arguing about all morning, were down to around 30 hospitals deaths per day in England and falling but we see around 400 reported deaths per week.
Edit.
Oops I see you've addressed that. If you think Hong Kong had stinking humidity you ain't been to Taipei...
LadyG said:
» show previous quotes
There is a theory as to why some countries/regions are getting rebounds in cases, whereas others, behaving identically, are not.
Take two as an example. Israel and Denmark.
They are both affluent, advanced countries. They have similar sized populations and similar population density. Both have good health care. Both flattened the curve early, then did unlockdown
Israel reported 522 new cases today.
Denmark reported.... 10.
So what's happening? The theory is that it's aircon.
Israel is a hot country in summer and it's often much more comfortable to be inside during the heat of the day. Down in the south - Eilat, the Negev it is unbearable and you HAVE to get inside for aircon.
Denmark has cool summers like ours, they barely need aircon. Few places use it.
Aircon is probably spreading this. Aircon explains (in part) the surge in the southern USA as the weather has really warmed up.
Was a theory of @Luckyguy1983 – a known crank on many issues but certainly right in his laudable views on food quality and welfare and probably right on this matter.
https://twitter.com/JoeScibelli/status/1279795909568557056?s=20
I think coronavirus just isn't very potent, outdoors
Absolutely spot on.
I think SKS delivers that. It is a question of what happens now. But he is just as aware that there is no election for four years as Dom is and will be planning accordingly (as well as I'm sure being ready "tomorrow morning" for any attempted Cons surprises, or events).
First, my Aunt Wendy died in a care home a couple of weeks or so ago. Her death certificate says Covid but the family are sceptical to say the least. She'd been bed bound for at least a year, and when I saw her for the last time at Christmas it was clear she was waiting to die. She'd lost any interest in anything and was existing rather than living. Covid may or may not have finally ended her life, but if so it was a mercy to all concerned.
We have a friend named Wendy whose Mum died a few weeks ago. She was 96 and died at home surrounded by her family. Again, her death certificate says Covid but the family think it was just old age. Maybe, maybe not.
Both of these cases appear in the statistics as Covid deaths. In neither case was death when it occurred anything of a surprise, nor was it accelerated, at least in the view of the family.
There are probably many such cases.
LostPassword said:
» show previous quotes
The WWW is one thing that uses the internet. Email is another. There are yet more uses of the internet.
So people say "I saw it on the internet" they mean "i saw it on the world wide web"?
Hmmmm but everyone says hoover, not vacuum cleaner, think the difference has been lost now
Oh wait...
Seems like a simple case of force majeure.
We seem to have very long albeit episodic summers these days, interspersed with the occasional burst of autumn. April, May and part of June were summery, early July mediocre, looking to warm up mid-month. We seem to be able to string some kind of summer out until early October some years.
Unconscious bias is real (and natural and a useful survival instinct through human evolution) and it is useful to be aware of it to try and question your own assumptions and prejudices. Labour should absolutely train their people given recent history with antisemitism and Starmer would be a hypocrite not to also do the training himself.
*a university, so yes, I know: wokeville
https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1280525371503501317?s=20
But if we could have a front bench of Coopers, Benns, Kendalls, Nandys and Phillipses then maybe.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1280530806906159107?s=09
Now back to grim reality ...
But you don't have to go that far north or west to get the traditional short, cold British summer.
Being confined indoors with poor ventilation is undoubtedly not a good idea. If fans are blowing exhaled air from one individual towards others (which seems to have been a patter in at least one documented Korean case), that doesn't help, either.
Decent aircon systems should have HEPA filters, so the 'recycling' isn't necessarily the problem.
Plenty of crappy systems around, though.
Sullivan 12% lead
Trump 8% lead
https://twitter.com/theJackVaughan/status/1280495716075536384
https://twitter.com/RVAT2020/status/1280486725165502464?s=09
My Mum's certificate, for example, stated 'old age' which was fair enough but it could have been attributed to a number of things. The substantive cause was dementia but that in itself didn't kill, but was so severe that there was a general breakdown of bodily functions.
So you'll have to find a better attack line than that. For the past two months the Conservatives have been looking for one only to draw a blank at every turn. It is blindingly obvious from those figures that the general public if not PB Tories have a high opinion of him.
But an old or bad aircon is a real risk.
I am certainly personally warier of aircon than I was.