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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Across all pollsters the Tories are retaining a clear lead

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Anecdote Alert.

    i work with blue collar Tories.

    a) They are warming to Starmer
    b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone.
    c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot.
    d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys.
    e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.

    A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.

    That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.

    Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.

    He needs to be junked soon.
    That's why David Herdson and I quit the party.

    He's taken the party down a fundamentally unconservative route.

    Just look at the approach of Cummings and Francois to the armed forces and their generals.

    Brexit is the God that all else must be sacrificed for.
    Why is David such an assiduous (and excellent) tweeter but no longer posts beneath the line on here anymore?
    You'd have to ask David.
    Presumably that’s what he has just done? Consider it a kind of open letter, albeit in the internet age.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    LadyG said "Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world."

    That is how SeanT might have put it, I think.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1280604390139793411?s=09

    In other news, Arsenal crowd more vocal than usual tonight...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    edited July 2020
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1280604390139793411?s=09

    In other news, Arsenal crowd more vocal than usual tonight...

    I'd be wary of starting a 'on the first day I'll do X' line, as I suspect before too long his first day will be too packed to do half of them! And with arguments about which are more deserving to boot.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    LadyG said:

    Nigelb said:

    LadyG said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a nice positive thread, but this bit is depressing


    https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1280295169305255937?s=20

    THIS is the UK Establishment's greatest failure. Not care homes, not quarantine, not belated lockdown, it is the awful negative messaging, and ongoing weak messaging, on the Wearing of Masks

    And the scientists are just as much to blame as the politicians. Right at the start the deputy CMO was saying masks are "actively harmful". Jonathan Van Tam was saying "Oh no, don't wear a mask"

    They either lied, obviously, or they were criminally stupid. Of course masks fucking work. That's why everyone in East Asia wears one and they have almost zero covid deaths compared to us.

    Fuck this shit. The stupid mixed up feeble messaging from the elite has got Britons massively confused about masks, and done it so badly, we have the lowest usage of masks in the western world.

    It is wickedly negligent. Careers must end over this
    For once, I’ve a great deal of sympathy with your hyperbolic tendency.
    The saddest thing is, if they had been firm from the start about masks, Britons would have obeyed. As we have seen, the British have been very obedient under lockdown.

    We have worked from home, we have abandoned public transport, we have kept our social distance, most people have been mature and sensible.

    So if the idiot scientists and wanker politicians had possessed an ounce of common sense, they would have said from the beginning, Yes please wear a face covering, try and keep the good masks for health workers, for now.

    And then when we definitely had enough PPE for the NHS, they could have gone further and said Right, now it's time to go compulsory: always wear a mask/face covering in shops, buildings, trains etc

    Firm consistent messaging from boffins and pols, hardening over time, could have saved thousands of lives, and 5% of our economy.

    The Czech Republic managed it. They did exactly this.

    https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1278466183759454208?s=20
    There were also a few morons who didn’t stay at home but fled halfway across the country, potentially spreading the virus hither and thither.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    CatMan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's absolutely great news. Hopefully it gives a good enough immune response that lasts long enough for a mass immunisation programme in a few months.
    One problem with that:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/07/almost-one-in-six-britons-say-would-refuse-covid-19-vaccine
    84% is plenty and in reality that will rise as people start to receive it and it proves to be safe. In reality I expect just a few holdouts for a mandatory vaccine.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Looks like the Treasury is recanting the idiocy of Covid-19 tests being a BIK.

    They are going to tax nurses instead
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1280604390139793411?s=09

    In other news, Arsenal crowd more vocal than usual tonight...

    I'd be wary of starting a 'on the first day I'll do X' line, as I suspect before too long his first day will be too packed to do half of them! And with arguments about which are more deserving to boot.
    Wise words. My experience of first days involves compulsorily starting an hour late so my new team can get their shit together; three hours spent being introduced to the various departmental heads in the business; then a further four hours filling out paperwork and/or signing up for various internal apps I’ll never use again. After which, it’s time to go home.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    Re: the hit-and-run spook's spouse, well the traditional way to settle such matters is, what ya got to trade that we might want?

    Can any PBers think of an answer to this riddle?

    Note that in 1919, King George VI was NOT eager to lend a helping hand to his cousin and look-a-like, Czar Nicholas II. As a result, the case of Nicki & family was terminated by Soviets with extreme prejudice.

    Betcha that future King would be just as unwilling to lift a finger to assist yet another royal relative in serious jeopardy IF there is the slightest risk to the throne in so doing.

    There isn't the slightest risk to the throne.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1280604390139793411?s=09

    In other news, Arsenal crowd more vocal than usual tonight...

    I'd be wary of starting a 'on the first day I'll do X' line, as I suspect before too long his first day will be too packed to do half of them! And with arguments about which are more deserving to boot.
    Wise words. My experience of first days involves compulsorily starting an hour late so my new team can get their shit together; three hours spent being introduced to the various departmental heads in the business; then a further four hours filling out paperwork and/or signing up for various internal apps I’ll never use again. After which, it’s time to go home.
    Surely all that is done in the 10 weeks of transition?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466
    edited July 2020
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    Great news. I hadn't realised they were testing it Brazil. I thought they were testing in the UK and were running out of the virus!
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    Great news. I hadn't realised they were testing it Brazil. I thought they were testing in the UK and were running out of the virus!

    Great news. I hadn't realised they were testing it Brazil. I thought they were testing in the UK and were running out of the virus!

    Not enough cases in the uk to get data.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1280604390139793411?s=09

    In other news, Arsenal crowd more vocal than usual tonight...

    I'd be wary of starting a 'on the first day I'll do X' line, as I suspect before too long his first day will be too packed to do half of them! And with arguments about which are more deserving to boot.
    Wise words. My experience of first days involves compulsorily starting an hour late so my new team can get their shit together; three hours spent being introduced to the various departmental heads in the business; then a further four hours filling out paperwork and/or signing up for various internal apps I’ll never use again. After which, it’s time to go home.
    Surely all that is done in the 10 weeks of transition?
    😃 Someone in HR will still find him a pile of pointless admin on the first Monday morning. Best to avoid ambitious promises.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Anecdote Alert.

    i work with blue collar Tories.

    a) They are warming to Starmer
    b) They don't know any key Labour players except RLB, whom they don't like, and they don't know she's gone.
    c) They detest Labour in general and Steve Kinnock in particular. I am in Port Talbot.
    d) They are furious at Cummings and Jenrick (and Steve Kinnock) for breaking lockdown. All three are considered equal. They assume Kinnock drove from Aberavon to London to stay with Neil and Glenys.
    e) They are still somewhat supportive of Johnson, but are tiring fast. Today's comments did not go down well.

    A sample of four and not scientific but in general agreement.

    That's a very telling, and interesting, summary.

    Boris could take down the party and the Union with him. And he won't care.

    He needs to be junked soon.
    That's why David Herdson and I quit the party.

    He's taken the party down a fundamentally unconservative route.

    Just look at the approach of Cummings and Francois to the armed forces and their generals.

    Brexit is the God that all else must be sacrificed for.
    The greatest Conservative Prime Ministers - Thatcher, Churchill, Peel, Disraeli - were all unconservative too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1280604390139793411?s=09

    In other news, Arsenal crowd more vocal than usual tonight...

    I'd be wary of starting a 'on the first day I'll do X' line, as I suspect before too long his first day will be too packed to do half of them! And with arguments about which are more deserving to boot.
    Wise words. My experience of first days involves compulsorily starting an hour late so my new team can get their shit together; three hours spent being introduced to the various departmental heads in the business; then a further four hours filling out paperwork and/or signing up for various internal apps I’ll never use again. After which, it’s time to go home.
    Surely all that is done in the 10 weeks of transition?
    Wonder if there will be a transition with Trump. He didn't do one coming in.
  • Blocking Twitter sure makes this site load faster, you really need to implement lazy loading of embeds
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    New thread!

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390

    Christ, VAR should issue a red card for that, that's a challenge worthy of Don Revie's Dirty Leeds.

    That's better, at least you're putting "Don Revie's" in front of it now, acknowledging that I was right - Bielsa's Leeds are a model of decorum.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    rcs1000 said:

    My wife posted this, and I think it's much better than the Lincoln Project Russian advert:

    This one from the Lincoln Project is more effective than the Russia one.

    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1280457599884935168

    I really dislike that.

    It’s not political campaigning

    It’s a psychological attack on a single individual. Deeply deeply unpleasant.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eristdoof said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    humbugger said:

    Good afternoon all. Some interesting stuff on Covid numbers today and in that context I offer a tale of two Wendys.

    First, my Aunt Wendy died in a care home a couple of weeks or so ago. Her death certificate says Covid but the family are sceptical to say the least. She'd been bed bound for at least a year, and when I saw her for the last time at Christmas it was clear she was waiting to die. She'd lost any interest in anything and was existing rather than living. Covid may or may not have finally ended her life, but if so it was a mercy to all concerned.

    We have a friend named Wendy whose Mum died a few weeks ago. She was 96 and died at home surrounded by her family. Again, her death certificate says Covid but the family think it was just old age. Maybe, maybe not.

    Both of these cases appear in the statistics as Covid deaths. In neither case was death when it occurred anything of a surprise, nor was it accelerated, at least in the view of the family.

    There are probably many such cases.

    Which is why the best measure to look at is excess deaths. Hopefully we'll go through a period when it's running at less than the expected level.
    It's already happening, deaths for the last two weeks are running at below the 5y average.
    It seems inevitable that is going to happen doesnt it, If loads of 80+ year olds pass away a bit earlier than expected?
    Someone (?NigelB) posted a great article written by an actuary, saying that even for the over 80s your "a bit earlier than expected" is on average 3 years.
    Most people don’t last more than 12-14 months in a care home
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My wife posted this, and I think it's much better than the Lincoln Project Russian advert:

    https://twitter.com/RVAT2020/status/1280486725165502464?s=09

    I know little of american politics, but in style alone the contrast between Trump and Reagan's speaking manner there is striking.
    Reagan was a TV star
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Starmer missing the wood for the trees. Surely the issue is that the care sector is for profit which siphons off money which would otherwise be spent on care.

    Complaining about cuts isn't going to work.

    Care homes used to be run by councils. They were shit. There’s a reason why they are run by the private sector now
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    WFH for office staff is still out there. Lockdown lite I'd call it now.
    Talking about WFH, does anyone know I can get printer ink?

    I've looked everywhere and I cannot find any to buy.

    I'm contemplating having to buy a new printer.
    Viking
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Re: the hit-and-run spook's spouse, well the traditional way to settle such matters is, what ya got to trade that we might want?

    Can any PBers think of an answer to this riddle?

    Note that in 1919, King George VI was NOT eager to lend a helping hand to his cousin and look-a-like, Czar Nicholas II. As a result, the case of Nicki & family was terminated by Soviets with extreme prejudice.

    Betcha that future King would be just as unwilling to lift a finger to assist yet another royal relative in serious jeopardy IF there is the slightest risk to the throne in so doing.

    I hear that Harry isn’t enjoying his exile
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    But these examples of children disturb me.

    Similarly, Trans Women who still have penises demanding access to Women only spaces - like refuges - where women are fleeing violent men.
    Or women's changing rooms. Sport is a big issue too.

    You ain;t a women, and you ain't mixing with women in these situations, till you've changed your bits, for me. But by all means do that with my full support.
    Question for the House -

    How many posters have had a bad experience with a transgender person at any time in any place including toilets or changing rooms?
    Never, but there are issues out there, make no mistake. Women don't like them in womens toilets and men don't like them in men's toilets. Until its happened to "you" (not me) you cannot possibly comment.
    This sounds exactly like some of the discourse around gays in previous times.
    I know you dont like me but here is a serious question

    Say there are for sake of argument 250,000 males self identifying as females

    How many women have to be raped by them in women only safe speaces before you think women have a point.

    I am looking for an explicit number here. Where you draw the line between
    a) women being raped in a supposed safe space
    and
    b) self identifying men having to use the same toilets they used for the last 20 years
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Another man comes second best to Ms Rowling:

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1280525371503501317?s=20

    I think people should stop having arguments on Twitter. It's a waste of time.
    Wouldn't that remove its purpose?

    Although mroe seriously I find it almost depressing to see how upset millionaires and billionaires can get on twitter, including about petty issues. Not being super wealthy I am of course vaguely aware money does not solve all your problems or bring contentment in a world full of whatever injustices energises a particualr person, but I'd like to believe it made people content enough that they didn't get worked up into online arguments like me.
    It is quite a spectacle.

    Take Graham Linehan. A superb comic writer - Father Ted, Big Train, etc. Yet he has basically scuppered his career and earned notoriety by having endless obsessive and highly aggressive arguments about trans rights.

    He should have come to PB.

    And done it under a series of increasingly ludicrous fake personae.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Christ, VAR should issue a red card for that, that's a challenge worthy of Don Revie's Dirty Leeds.

    We've rebranded.

    Recipients of the 2019 FIFA Fair Play Award: Leeds
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Dura_Ace said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Another man comes second best to Ms Rowling:

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1280525371503501317?s=20

    I think people should stop having arguments on Twitter. It's a waste of time.
    Wouldn't that remove its purpose?

    Although mroe seriously I find it almost depressing to see how upset millionaires and billionaires can get on twitter, including about petty issues. Not being super wealthy I am of course vaguely aware money does not solve all your problems or bring contentment in a world full of whatever injustices energises a particualr person, but I'd like to believe it made people content enough that they didn't get worked up into online arguments like me.
    It is quite a spectacle.

    Take Graham Linehan. A superb comic writer - Father Ted, Big Train, etc. Yet he has basically scuppered his career and earned notoriety by having endless obsessive and highly aggressive arguments about trans rights.

    He should have come to PB.

    And done it under a series of increasingly ludicrous fake personae.
    Transgender personae at that!
This discussion has been closed.