politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Finding the right frontrunner. Mixed messages from the Lib Dem
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Finding the right frontrunner. Mixed messages from the Lib Dems
It’s easy to forget, but there’s a leadership election going on. The Liberal Democrats misplaced their last leader during another disappointing election night and now needs a new one. There are two candidates, over 100,000 eligible voters (yes, really), eight weeks to go, and virtually no media coverage. Perfect time for a look at the betting options.
Comments
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I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.1 -
FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.3 -
Good morning, everyone.
I think it may be excessively generous to describe May's approach as 'triangulation'. It lacked basic foresight (she got hamstrung by her own "no deal is better than a bad deal" line in the Commons but if she'd adopted that approach in negotiation she would've gotten a better deal...).
Also, slight omission not to mention her good start was ruined by getting high on her own supply and endorsing a straight revocation rather than second referendum, a needless and foolish mistake as some elegant gentlemen renowned for wearing lace and bells may have asserted at the time.
"...Moran has scored some self-inflicted wounds..." - Bit too early in the morning for me to add the punchline.
Good points on Cable and the absence of a backlash, likewise the 'which change' line.
For what it's worth (not much) I agree that Davey seems to be value. Backed him a little a short time ago.1 -
I don't think you need to worry much about where the candidates are positioned, the voters don't know much about the LibDems at the best of times and there's plenty of time for the new leader to shift to wherever it turns out the votes are. At a push it might be useful to have some distance from the coalition, but generally the voters won't know.
What the LibDems need to do is to get attention. There was arguably a market for dull competence, but Starmer's got that. So they should pick Layla, because she's interesting and has good glasses.0 -
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.0 -
Looks like Huawei is set to be banned from key infrastructure. Should have been the original decision. Hopefully the government also steps in an bans their corporate espionage R&D centre in Cambridge.
I think this is also an example of why Sedwill needed to go and a general insight into the complacent attitude if the establishment. They always think they know best, even though time and again it's been shown they don't have a clue.2 -
Well, if that's the worst you can accuse him of........state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
Poor comparison maybe with Labour, but when one looks at the lying dissembling, self-serving object that was elected as Leader by the Conservative party........
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It worked in 1997, but I’m not sure it will work in 2024. Depends on boundary changes and how unpopular The Tories are and labour are not unified and have problems of their own.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.0 -
Ladbrokes is being weird. Wants me to bet in dollars, and it took a bit of browsing before it actually showed me having any money...0
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Yes, did it to me yesterday too.Morris_Dancer said:Ladbrokes is being weird. Wants me to bet in dollars, and it took a bit of browsing before it actually showed me having any money...
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You are not thinking. In terms of the leadership election audience this looks like a smart thing for Davey do. Trump fanboy Farage is a hated figure and he was putting two fingers up at the lockdown law.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.1 -
Indeed yes. They’re just a bit rubbish. Do you know, there’s one member of the establishment who thought the best way to test his eyesight was to go on a sixty mile car drive?MaxPB said:Looks like Huawei is set to be banned from key infrastructure. Should have been the original decision. Hopefully the government also steps in an bans their corporate espionage R&D centre in Cambridge.
I think this is also an example of why Sedwill needed to go and a general insight into the complacent attitude if the establishment. They always think they know best, even though time and again it's been shown they don't have a clue.1 -
Bit difficult to snitch on someone whose apparent offence appeared on the front page of the newspapers.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
FWIW, I think it reasonable to ask the question, it not being unreasonable to be curious about whether laws are enforced or not.6 -
I’d rather not. I’ve just had breakfast.OldKingCole said:
Well, if that's the worst you can accuse him of........state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
Poor comparison maybe with Labour, but when one looks at the lying dissembling, self-serving object that was elected as Leader by the Conservative party........1 -
Why? He's facing a leadership election and it gives him some coverage.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.0 -
My suspicion is this will be another Cummings. The police will say he broke the laws, but since policy is to instruct people to comply and only take action if they refuse to, there will be no retrospective action.Nigelb said:
Bit difficult to snitch on someone whose apparent offence appeared on the front page of the newspapers.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
FWIW, I think it reasonable to ask the question, it not being unreasonable to be curious about whether laws are enforced or not.0 -
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1279666658592907265ydoethur said:Do you know, there’s one member of the establishment who thought the best way to test his eyesight was to go on a sixty mile car drive?
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A potential spanner in the machinery of electoral calculation...
Kanye West declares he will run for US president in 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/jul/05/kanye-west-declares-he-will-run-for-us-president-in-20200 -
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.0 -
Sounds right, curious as it is to see those who demanded this law be introduced asap throughout April and May and were screaming at the govt for it not being done are now the same people who are saying it doesnt matter if someone important breached it.ydoethur said:
My suspicion is this will be another Cummings. The police will say he broke the laws, but since policy is to instruct people to comply and only take action if they refuse to, there will be no retrospective action.Nigelb said:
Bit difficult to snitch on someone whose apparent offence appeared on the front page of the newspapers.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
FWIW, I think it reasonable to ask the question, it not being unreasonable to be curious about whether laws are enforced or not.0 -
Hmm. Well, signing out and in a couple of times worked, but that was a shade disconcerting. Bet made, blog coming shortly.0
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Do you think that a valid reason to bother the police -? I call it cynicalMikeSmithson said:
Why? He's facing a leadership election and it gives him some coverage.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.0 -
Quintessentially is not a concierge service for billionaires.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1279666658592907265ydoethur said:Do you know, there’s one member of the establishment who thought the best way to test his eyesight was to go on a sixty mile car drive?
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At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.1 -
I gave the reason; Mike a motivation.state_go_away said:
Do you think that a valid reason to bother the police -? I call it cynicalMikeSmithson said:
Why? He's facing a leadership election and it gives him some coverage.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.0 -
Indeed, millionaires can get membership too.rcs1000 said:
Quintessentially is not a concierge service for billionaires.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1279666658592907265ydoethur said:Do you know, there’s one member of the establishment who thought the best way to test his eyesight was to go on a sixty mile car drive?
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Betting Post
F1: backed Hamilton to win with Bottas 2nd and Verstappen 3rd at 5.75.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/07/austria-pre-race-2020.html
I think the top three are very likely to retain those places, and with Mercedes a cut above Verstappen it seems the only question mark is whether Hamilton can pass Bottas. That seems a quite plausible outcome.1 -
And more fundamentally he was getting some media attention in the middle of a leadership campaign; one in which the contenders need to persuade party members that they can win the party more attention in future.MikeSmithson said:
You are not thinking. In terms of the leadership election audience this looks like a smart thing for Davey do. Trump fanboy Farage is a hated figure and he was putting two fingers up at the lockdown law.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.0 -
So you think that what Farage did was OK? He was putting two fingers up at the pandemic laws.state_go_away said:
Do you think that a valid reason to bother the police -? I call it cynicalMikeSmithson said:
Why? He's facing a leadership election and it gives him some coverage.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.0 -
Quite possible; it would be good to find out what the policy is.ydoethur said:
My suspicion is this will be another Cummings. The police will say he broke the laws, but since policy is to instruct people to comply and only take action if they refuse to, there will be no retrospective action.Nigelb said:
Bit difficult to snitch on someone whose apparent offence appeared on the front page of the newspapers.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
FWIW, I think it reasonable to ask the question, it not being unreasonable to be curious about whether laws are enforced or not.
Though if we’re talking about consistency of policing, then perhaps the police should consider that Farage is also frequently interviewed...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/04/police-smash-car-window-ryan-colaco-tv-interview-racism1 -
But there are about 90 seats where they are in second place and where it is hard to see LAB having a chance. Starmer needs a huge number of CON seat losses to have a hope of becoming PM and for some of those to be LD gains will be very helpful.ydoethur said:
At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.0 -
Great header and has persuaded me to dip my toes in on Davey. In the Lab leadership, there was no polling for a while, except ratings showing Starmer had highest satisfaction. Then suddenly it was all a foregone conclusion.0
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Interesting thread. Davey is the obvious choice for the Lib Dems in the same way that Starmer was for Labour.1
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Exactly. Farage wanted publicity. It is very reasonable to question whether there is any intention to enforce quarantine from infection hotspots like the USA, or whether the government is just paying lip service to disease control.Nigelb said:
Bit difficult to snitch on someone whose apparent offence appeared on the front page of the newspapers.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
FWIW, I think it reasonable to ask the question, it not being unreasonable to be curious about whether laws are enforced or not.0 -
Here is a serious question for our Lib Dem members:IanB2 said:
And more fundamentally he was getting some media attention in the middle of a leadership campaign; one in which the contenders need to persuade party members that they can win the party more attention in future.MikeSmithson said:
You are not thinking. In terms of the leadership election audience this looks like a smart thing for Davey do. Trump fanboy Farage is a hated figure and he was putting two fingers up at the lockdown law.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
Is it media attention that you want? Or to rebuild a party hollowed out at the grassroots? A party which once gained 1800 seats in local government on a single night, and yet holds barely 2,500 in total now?
The first was the Thorpe strategy (not a reference to his ummm, later career) the latter the Grimond strategy. Thorpe took the Liberals to a high in seats after a near wipeout. But Grimond saved them from oblivion.1 -
How many of those 90 seats can you see the Lib Dems picking up next time?MikeSmithson said:
But there are about 90 seats where they are in second place and where it is hard to see LAB having a chance. Starmer needs a huge number of CON seat losses to have a hope of becoming PM and for some of those to be LD gains will be very helpful.ydoethur said:
At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.0 -
Layla has the songs on her side. Never mind 1970s Eric Clapton, there is this amped-up Syrian wedding banger from Omar Souleyman, just out:
حقها تدلل حقها.. ليلى ليلى من
و الشافها يعشقها.. ليلى جانا من
It suits her to act flirtatious.. layla layla
Whomever sees her falls ill for her.. layla jana min 🎶🎶
دخيل رب العالي.. ليلى ليلى من
مثل القمر خالقها... ليلى جانا من
O' my lord up the skies.. layla layla
Like the moon you created her.. layla jana min 🎶🎶🎶
عندها طول و شخصية.. ليلى ليلى من
قمر بعيوني هيه.. ليلى جانا من🎶🎶🎶
She got tallness and personality.. layla layla
She's a moon in my eyes.. layla jana min 🎶🎶 🎶
لولا يطلع بيديا.. ليلى ليلى من
للموت ما افارقها.. ليلى جانا من 🎶🎶🎶
If it were up to me.. layla layla
Until death I wouldn't leave her.. layla jana min 🎶🎶🎶
يعجبني فيها الدلال ...ليلى ليلى من
مشيتها مشية غزال.. ليلى جانا من 🎶🎶
I like the coyness in her.. layla layla
She walks like a deer.. layla, Jana min 🎶🎶 🎶
الشفه تمر الحلة.. ليلى ليلى من
شعر الاشقر يتدلى.. ليلى جانا من 🎶🎶🎶
Her lips are sweet as a date.. layla, layla
Her blonde hair dangles.. layla, jana min 🎶🎶🎶
انا لخاطرها و الله... ليلى ليلى من
كل الدنيا لاحرقها.. ليلى جانا من
For her I swear to Allah.. Layla, Layla
The whole world I'd burn.. Layla, jana min 🎶 🎶🎶
But Ed will win. Probably.0 -
This looks to be an important finding about long term immunity (T cell memory lasts for many years).
Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1
SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in a large cohort of unexposed individuals as well as exposed family members and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative family members and individuals with a history of asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals.3 -
I like Layla. She is fresh, bright, articulate, a media natural, but she is also a bit too erratic. Davey is a capable slightly dull person, but very astute. The next election may well need both a platform and negotiation for coalition government, and I think Davey has the skills for that.
There is something a little depressing about all the major parties being led by fifty something, overweight men with seats in the capital and its suburbs. That isn't a great reason to vote Layla though.3 -
If Keir Starmer put a picture on twitter, grinning, next to a torn down statue with a rope in his hand, I think you might just be calling for the police to investigate.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.0 -
Ding dong.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.0 -
You have not considered that by 2024, and after 4 years of post Covid and post Brexit economic armageddon, the desire to vote for anyone but the Conservatives could be enormous. Unbelievable though it sounds, we may also tire of Boris Johnson's Fred Scuttle/Benny Hill tribute act and vote accordingly to remove the Conservative clown prince from office by any means possible, including voting LD.ydoethur said:
At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.
On the other hand, the post Covid and post Brexit economic stewardship by the Conservatives could be so immense that all other parties outside Scotland become irrelevant as in 2019. Boris Johnson's surefooted nimbleness in masterfully saving his citizens from the ravages of further spikes of Coronavirus, may seem so impressive in relation to the second and third waves across Europe, that we justifiably reward him handsomely in May 2024. Then yes, the LDs are in trouble.
Given that binary choice, or something in between, I think the LDs might positively surprise.0 -
Depends on whether there is an anti-Tory tide in the country and LAB has made a good start by not choosing an obviously unelectable successor to the Corbyn.tlg86 said:
How many of those 90 seats can you see the Lib Dems picking up next time?MikeSmithson said:
But there are about 90 seats where they are in second place and where it is hard to see LAB having a chance. Starmer needs a huge number of CON seat losses to have a hope of becoming PM and for some of those to be LD gains will be very helpful.ydoethur said:
At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.
Remember that at GE1997 the LDs saw their national vote down down but they went from 20 to 46 seats. They need Starmer to do well and he needs them to take CON seats that are out of reach to LAB3 -
Never really thought of Keir as overweight, maybe this is the famed partisan fitness goggles. I hope some journo asks Layla & Ed about their views on coalitions.Foxy said:I like Layla. She is fresh, bright, articulate, a media natural, but she is also a bit too erratic. Davey is a capable slightly dull person, but very astute. The next election may well need both a platform and negotiation for coalition government, and I think Davey has the skills for that.
There is something a little depressing about all the major parties being led by fifty something, overweight men with seats in the capital and its suburbs. That isn't a great reason to vote Layla though.0 -
We have had great volatility in party support over the last 5 years. I don't think that has ended.tlg86 said:
How many of those 90 seats can you see the Lib Dems picking up next time?MikeSmithson said:
But there are about 90 seats where they are in second place and where it is hard to see LAB having a chance. Starmer needs a huge number of CON seat losses to have a hope of becoming PM and for some of those to be LD gains will be very helpful.ydoethur said:
At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.
The FPTP system is tough on smaller parties of course, but the LD conception of a financially and environmentally sustainable internationalist country is one woth sticking with. Being unpopular is not the same as being wrong.2 -
Whoever would have thought Boris Johnson would be such a powerful force for the break-up of the UK?0
-
Good piece by Dan Hannan on why the Blob is in serious need of reform.MaxPB said:Looks like Huawei is set to be banned from key infrastructure. Should have been the original decision. Hopefully the government also steps in an bans their corporate espionage R&D centre in Cambridge.
I think this is also an example of why Sedwill needed to go and a general insight into the complacent attitude if the establishment. They always think they know best, even though time and again it's been shown they don't have a clue.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/04/state-will-never-improve-people-continue-hero-worship-employees/
” It is technically true, of course, that the officials who work in health procurement are state employees. But calling them “the government” is a cop-out. It suggests that, somehow, any problems are the fault of politicians – whose motives are never quite explained, but who are vaguely assumed to be malevolent. It lets us maintain a distinction between “the professionals” (pure, selfless, incorruptible) and “the government” (shoddy, dishonest, calculating).
“As long as we think that way, we give state agencies little incentive to raise they game. They might be staffed by the best, wisest and most industrious of people. But, being immune to public opinion, they are bound to underperform.
“This problem won’t be solved by appointing better officials – though that might help a little. What is needed is a radical diffusion and democratisation of decisions. Power should be shifted from unelected functionaries to elected representatives – whether by making quangos plead annually for their budgets before the relevant Commons committee or by transferring their function to local authorities. The competences that are coming back from the EU should not be hoarded in Whitehall, but passed down to county and metropolitan councils or, better yet, to private citizens.”0 -
Yep, spot on.MikeSmithson said:
Depends on whether there is an anti-Tory tide in the country and LAB has made a good start by not choosing an obviously unelectable successor to the Corbyn.tlg86 said:
How many of those 90 seats can you see the Lib Dems picking up next time?MikeSmithson said:
But there are about 90 seats where they are in second place and where it is hard to see LAB having a chance. Starmer needs a huge number of CON seat losses to have a hope of becoming PM and for some of those to be LD gains will be very helpful.ydoethur said:
At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.
Remember that at GE1997 the LDs saw their national vote down down but they went from 20 to 46 seats. They need Starmer to do well and he needs them to take CON seats that are out of reach to LAB
0 -
Not as overweight as the others, but could do with shedding a stone or two. Being overweight is so normalised now that it looks normal.rkrkrk said:
Never really thought of Keir as overweight, maybe this is the famed partisan fitness goggles. I hope some journo asks Layla & Ed about their views on coalitions.Foxy said:I like Layla. She is fresh, bright, articulate, a media natural, but she is also a bit too erratic. Davey is a capable slightly dull person, but very astute. The next election may well need both a platform and negotiation for coalition government, and I think Davey has the skills for that.
There is something a little depressing about all the major parties being led by fifty something, overweight men with seats in the capital and its suburbs. That isn't a great reason to vote Layla though.0 -
It’s a good question (I’m not a member, so can’t usefully answer it).ydoethur said:
Here is a serious question for our Lib Dem members:IanB2 said:
And more fundamentally he was getting some media attention in the middle of a leadership campaign; one in which the contenders need to persuade party members that they can win the party more attention in future.MikeSmithson said:
You are not thinking. In terms of the leadership election audience this looks like a smart thing for Davey do. Trump fanboy Farage is a hated figure and he was putting two fingers up at the lockdown law.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
Is it media attention that you want? Or to rebuild a party hollowed out at the grassroots? A party which once gained 1800 seats in local government on a single night, and yet holds barely 2,500 in total now?
The first was the Thorpe strategy (not a reference to his ummm, later career) the latter the Grimond strategy. Thorpe took the Liberals to a high in seats after a near wipeout. But Grimond saved them from oblivion.
But to pat it back to you, is it really an either/or question; ought they not to be aspiring to do both ?1 -
TBH, I would expect neither of them to be keen. Confidence and Supply, perhaps, but the result of the 2010-15 experience has probably put the party off.rkrkrk said:
Never really thought of Keir as overweight, maybe this is the famed partisan fitness goggles. I hope some journo asks Layla & Ed about their views on coalitions.Foxy said:I like Layla. She is fresh, bright, articulate, a media natural, but she is also a bit too erratic. Davey is a capable slightly dull person, but very astute. The next election may well need both a platform and negotiation for coalition government, and I think Davey has the skills for that.
There is something a little depressing about all the major parties being led by fifty something, overweight men with seats in the capital and its suburbs. That isn't a great reason to vote Layla though.
After all, they had a C&S with Labour in 1995-8 and it did little harm. Little good, either, to be fair, but when compared with the effect of Clegg's misplaced effort.....
1 -
....and its irrelevant because there isn't going to be a poll that the sainted Nicola doesn't really want .. Agitate for it but have it.. naaah...Theuniondivvie said:Ding dong.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.0 -
-
Was it Cummings or Putin that bought them?Scott_xP said:4 -
Davey seems a bit like Saddam Hussein: world's best vice-president, world's worst president. He'd be the best possible deputy to Knuckles Moran.Foxy said:I like Layla. She is fresh, bright, articulate, a media natural, but she is also a bit too erratic. Davey is a capable slightly dull person, but very astute. The next election may well need both a platform and negotiation for coalition government, and I think Davey has the skills for that.
There is something a little depressing about all the major parties being led by fifty something, overweight men with seats in the capital and its suburbs. That isn't a great reason to vote Layla though.2 -
Also of interest from the full paper:Nigelb said:This looks to be an important finding about long term immunity (T cell memory lasts for many years).
Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1
SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in a large cohort of unexposed individuals as well as exposed family members and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative family members and individuals with a history of asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals.
... almost twice as many exposed family members and healthy individuals who donated blood during the pandemic generated memory T cell responses versus antibody responses, implying that seroprevalence as an indicator has underestimated the extent of population-level immunity against SARS-CoV-2...
The study was conducted in Sweden for a couple of hundred individuals. I’m not sure you can directly extrapolate population numbers, as the study was designed to look at detailed T cell response rather than population statistics (which it does in great detail), but it’s nonetheless very interesting.3 -
Don’t even read what someone has to say, just reflexively hate someone so don’t think their opinion counts for anything.Scott_xP said:
Alternatively, try understanding what the government is up to, and why they’re doing it, and criticise the policy rather than the people.0 -
Well, no one cares what you think, but I look forward to your overlords carrying one with that same line.squareroot2 said:
....and its irrelevant because there isn't going to be a poll that the sainted Nicola doesn't really want .. Agitate for it but have it.. naaah...Theuniondivvie said:Ding dong.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.
'Curtice said: “Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak. Unsurprisingly, for many nationalists, the past three months have exemplified how Scotland could govern itself better as an independent, small country. More importantly, it may have persuaded some former unionists of the merits of that claim, too.”
There is increasing gloom among senior unionist politicians in Conservative and Labour ranks in Scotland that independence is inevitable.'0 -
Absolutely. The recipe is there and proven. Let’s hope people are not dumb enough to forget it again.MikeSmithson said:
Depends on whether there is an anti-Tory tide in the country and LAB has made a good start by not choosing an obviously unelectable successor to the Corbyn.tlg86 said:
How many of those 90 seats can you see the Lib Dems picking up next time?MikeSmithson said:
But there are about 90 seats where they are in second place and where it is hard to see LAB having a chance. Starmer needs a huge number of CON seat losses to have a hope of becoming PM and for some of those to be LD gains will be very helpful.ydoethur said:
At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.
Remember that at GE1997 the LDs saw their national vote down down but they went from 20 to 46 seats. They need Starmer to do well and he needs them to take CON seats that are out of reach to LAB0 -
Didn't Sir Ed think before he posted that? didn't he realise that Nigel Farage would absolutely love it if he got taken to court and fined for going to the pub?, imagine the free publicity.rkrkrk said:
If Keir Starmer put a picture on twitter, grinning, next to a torn down statue with a rope in his hand, I think you might just be calling for the police to investigate.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
The continuing bitterness and anger of some remainers is incredible, we all know that Davey wouldn't have reported someone like John Bercow if he'd done exactly the same, they don't seem to realise that Brexiteers love to wind them up.
On Daisy Cooper mentioned in the article, I've never heard of her so I googled, a new MP only elected last year for a very marginal seat who appears to have only ever worked for think tanks and as a political campaigner. If that's a 'rising star' then the LDs really are in the poo.
1 -
As an LD member I find it difficult to choose. I've known Ed since well before he became an MP and prior to GE1997 I was one of the people he beat for the Kingston PPC nomination. But in last year's leadership election he got less than 30% of vote. I'm a longstanding friend of Layla's campaign manager who would surely take up the national role if she won and I think that would be a good thing.Foxy said:I like Layla. She is fresh, bright, articulate, a media natural, but she is also a bit too erratic. Davey is a capable slightly dull person, but very astute. The next election may well need both a platform and negotiation for coalition government, and I think Davey has the skills for that.
There is something a little depressing about all the major parties being led by fifty something, overweight men with seats in the capital and its suburbs. That isn't a great reason to vote Layla though.0 -
I have voted in every Liberal, LIb Dem leadership election since 1976. Looking at both candidates I am forced to abstain. Probably says much about the perilous state of the party which sems to lack any sense of drive or ambition. I am a party member but wonder if the Party should now finally pack up business.0
-
Anyone writing the LDs off, has not noticed the deep, sheer sided economic crater we have just climbed into.0
-
Missed the filing deadline for 6 dates so far.Nigelb said:A potential spanner in the machinery of electoral calculation...
Kanye West declares he will run for US president in 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/jul/05/kanye-west-declares-he-will-run-for-us-president-in-20200 -
The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
There was a 'slave auction' once at my school to raise a little for charity.
I imagine many schools, colleges, and universities have done likewise. As a headline, it's tosh.
And it's pathetic to focus on that nonsense when there are numerous and serious flaws with Johnson to attack.0 -
In 1997 the Tory government had lost it's overall majority, today they have a majority of 80 the mountain to climb is much higher and Keir Starmer is no Blair.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, spot on.MikeSmithson said:
Depends on whether there is an anti-Tory tide in the country and LAB has made a good start by not choosing an obviously unelectable successor to the Corbyn.tlg86 said:
How many of those 90 seats can you see the Lib Dems picking up next time?MikeSmithson said:
But there are about 90 seats where they are in second place and where it is hard to see LAB having a chance. Starmer needs a huge number of CON seat losses to have a hope of becoming PM and for some of those to be LD gains will be very helpful.ydoethur said:
At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.
Remember that at GE1997 the LDs saw their national vote down down but they went from 20 to 46 seats. They need Starmer to do well and he needs them to take CON seats that are out of reach to LAB
I also can't see the LDs getting much press during the next four years, these two dull as ditchwater candidates won't generate much hence the lack of coverage for this contest.0 -
The single unifying thing in this has been the avalance of heartbreaking stories from people who have suffered during lockdown. Regardless of political allegience sticking two fingers up at the rules as a few have done is seen as doing that personally to those of us who have been unable to see family. Nobody grassed Farage up, he posted photos and video of him breaking quarantine on Twitter. I might be a bit grrrr at the idiots in Soho yesterday just as I was at the idiots marching, but thats nothing compared to an absolute cockwomble who pressed the flesh in plague land with Trump aides who are confirmed pox carriers who then flies home and thinks the quarantine rules written up specifically for that kind of circumstance don't apply to him because of who he is.MikeSmithson said:
You are not thinking. In terms of the leadership election audience this looks like a smart thing for Davey do. Trump fanboy Farage is a hated figure and he was putting two fingers up at the lockdown law.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
Its common sense not to go out if you've been exposed to the Rona as Farage likely has. We have rules about that which aren't restricted to having returned abroad. Farage doesn't care about those either. So the idea that LibDem members are going to see Davey acting on this and sucking teeth is absurd. Nor is this about votes - simply right and wrong. That ave_it thinks normals support Farage over their personal pain during all this just demonstrates that he is trolling. Nobody is that out of touch...
4 -
Boris is making dull a virtue.DeClare said:
In 1997 the Tory government had lost it's overall majority, today they have a majority of 80 the mountain to climb is much higher and Keir Starmer is no Blair.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, spot on.MikeSmithson said:
Depends on whether there is an anti-Tory tide in the country and LAB has made a good start by not choosing an obviously unelectable successor to the Corbyn.tlg86 said:
How many of those 90 seats can you see the Lib Dems picking up next time?MikeSmithson said:
But there are about 90 seats where they are in second place and where it is hard to see LAB having a chance. Starmer needs a huge number of CON seat losses to have a hope of becoming PM and for some of those to be LD gains will be very helpful.ydoethur said:
At the moment there are very few seats where the Liberal Democrats are in contention at all. There are only six seats where they are under 2000 votes behind (curiously, all of them are held with a majority of less than 1000) and only a further six where the majority is below 4000.MikeSmithson said:
BUt there are almost no seats where the LDs and LAB are competing.Mysticrose said:I think the LibDems' biggest problem is that Labour have tacked right. Keir Starmer has planted the Labour bus right across the soft left and centre lawn.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.
Remember that at GE1997 the LDs saw their national vote down down but they went from 20 to 46 seats. They need Starmer to do well and he needs them to take CON seats that are out of reach to LAB
I also can't see the LDs getting much press during the next four years, these two dull as ditchwater candidates won't generate much hence the lack of coverage for this contest.0 -
Seeing Johnson and Gove being auctioned off like that., I thought b****** rather than slaves to be more apt.Morris_Dancer said:There was a 'slave auction' once at my school to raise a little for charity.
I imagine many schools, colleges, and universities have done likewise. As a headline, it's tosh.
And it's pathetic to focus on that nonsense when there are numerous and serious flaws with Johnson to attack.0 -
well....you would say that because you don't like hearing an alternative opinion to yours. Frankly no one or at least few really give a monkeys about Scotland, Its a great place to visit for a driving or golfing holiday but that's about it.Theuniondivvie said:
Well, no one cares what you think, but I look forward to your overlords carrying one with that same line.squareroot2 said:
....and its irrelevant because there isn't going to be a poll that the sainted Nicola doesn't really want .. Agitate for it but have it.. naaah...Theuniondivvie said:Ding dong.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.
'Curtice said: “Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak. Unsurprisingly, for many nationalists, the past three months have exemplified how Scotland could govern itself better as an independent, small country. More importantly, it may have persuaded some former unionists of the merits of that claim, too.”
There is increasing gloom among senior unionist politicians in Conservative and Labour ranks in Scotland that independence is inevitable.'0 -
Worrying complacency.squareroot2 said:
well....you would say that because you don't like hearing an alternative opinion to yours. Frankly no one or at least few really give a monkeys about Scotland, Its a great place to visit for a driving or golfing holiday but that's about it.Theuniondivvie said:
Well, no one cares what you think, but I look forward to your overlords carrying one with that same line.squareroot2 said:
....and its irrelevant because there isn't going to be a poll that the sainted Nicola doesn't really want .. Agitate for it but have it.. naaah...Theuniondivvie said:Ding dong.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.
'Curtice said: “Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak. Unsurprisingly, for many nationalists, the past three months have exemplified how Scotland could govern itself better as an independent, small country. More importantly, it may have persuaded some former unionists of the merits of that claim, too.”
There is increasing gloom among senior unionist politicians in Conservative and Labour ranks in Scotland that independence is inevitable.'0 -
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
Disbanding and joining the Tories/Labour? 😇eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.-1 -
On topic, what do I want from the LibDems and why did I join? I've been on a political journey in recent years - voted for Corbyn as leader, voted for Brexit, realised the stupidity of crawling down that rabbit hole and started digging my way out - voted for Smith before finally quitting Labour in revulsion last year and then after a break joining the LibDems.
My sense and experience as a political activist is that most normals aren't ideological. They may often lean in one direction or another but not because of "left" or "right" but a sense of policy x will work for me and policy y won't. All the obsessive frothing from Labour and Tory members about shades of red and blue where having to fit into a moving box in the overton window of whatever version of "left" or "right" is currently orthodoxy simply doesn't apply to most normals.
What appealed last year was the sense that political tectonic plates were smashing apart. The LibDems recruited voters from old left and old right, and were competitive in seats held by both old parties. I'm comfortably centrist / third way / neo-Blairite at the moment, and policies that work appeals more than dogwhistle idolatry. Whats more many voters feel that way as well - Blair was literally hated for "right wing" law and order policies which were just normal to so many working class Labour voters. On the flip side the Tories seem quite happy to steal yellow clothes when it comes to things like the pupil premium and gay marriage.
So I'm voting for Ed Davey precisely because I think he can bridge across the party barriers. Him being a Secretary of State in the coalition is for me an advantage. Instead of sensible policies on energy market regulation being branded "marxist" by the Tories before largely being adopted, how about we drop the left/right labels and ask what we want from the energy market? Free broadband was absurdly ideological but we desperately need heavy investment in fast fibre - the state providing the infrastructure that private business can then buy access to (and sell to consumers) feels like a 21st century version of the Manchester Corporation building a hydraulic power network that businesses could plug into to make the city prosper. It isn't ideologically left or right, it just works.
Others will disagree of course. I don't care about narrow arguments about "policy x triangulates against position y" because its short term and stupid. You cant "tack to the left of Labour" as Moran proposes when "left" isn't a fixed point. Set out what you stand for, propose some policies, stand on your own turf.6 -
Good for them raising money for charity while students!Scott_xP said:
That is the point you're trying to make.1 -
Why would I join one of two corrupt parties who’s sole objective is to satisfy their paymasters and themselves?Philip_Thompson said:
Disbanding and joining the Tories/Labour? 😇eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.2 -
If you had been here last night Farage was getting far more support and justification for his actions than I would have thought normal, and certainly more than he deserved.RochdalePioneers said:
The single unifying thing in this has been the avalance of heartbreaking stories from people who have suffered during lockdown. Regardless of political allegience sticking two fingers up at the rules as a few have done is seen as doing that personally to those of us who have been unable to see family. Nobody grassed Farage up, he posted photos and video of him breaking quarantine on Twitter. I might be a bit grrrr at the idiots in Soho yesterday just as I was at the idiots marching, but thats nothing compared to an absolute cockwomble who pressed the flesh in plague land with Trump aides who are confirmed pox carriers who then flies home and thinks the quarantine rules written up specifically for that kind of circumstance don't apply to him because of who he is.MikeSmithson said:
You are not thinking. In terms of the leadership election audience this looks like a smart thing for Davey do. Trump fanboy Farage is a hated figure and he was putting two fingers up at the lockdown law.state_go_away said:
yes one thing to call out Farage another thing to inform the police . Its shows bad judgement as well as those characteristics you mention.Casino_Royale said:FPT - I though Ed Davey's snitching on Farage was snide, petty, small, pedantic and pathetic.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
Its common sense not to go out if you've been exposed to the Rona as Farage likely has. We have rules about that which aren't restricted to having returned abroad. Farage doesn't care about those either. So the idea that LibDem members are going to see Davey acting on this and sucking teeth is absurd. Nor is this about votes - simply right and wrong. That ave_it thinks normals support Farage over their personal pain during all this just demonstrates that he is trolling. Nobody is that out of touch...0 -
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
If that poll was accurate (an absolute majority voting SNP in both constituency and list) then avoiding a referendum - or a Yes vote - are likely impossible.Theuniondivvie said:Ding dong.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.
There is simply no possible way to deny a vote if an absolute majority have voted SNP.
And don't be preposterous banging on about Salmond going on about "once in a generation" - Salmond is not leader and no Parliament can bind its successor, no leader can bind their successor. That's more than just a constitutional nicety its a fundamental principle of democracy.0 -
From what I read on LibDemVoice there are some older members in despair who actually suggest that. Isn't the problem that "Labour" and "Tory" are rather wide ranges of policy and ideology? The Tory Party led by Johnson is very different to the Tory party led by Cameron. The Labour party of Starmer is very different to the Labour Party led by Jezbollah. There's plenty of long-standing members of both parties who have been unable to do the ideological backflips needed to stay on message in their former party - I struggle to see how the UK copying the Godawful American system does us any good at all.Philip_Thompson said:
Disbanding and joining the Tories/Labour? 😇eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
Darrin carries baggage that can make him look foolish to outsiders.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
Yet here you are posting on the subject once again, indulging your curious obsession with 'the sainted Nicola'.squareroot2 said:
well....you would say that because you don't like hearing an alternative opinion to yours. Frankly no one or at least few really give a monkeys about Scotland, Its a great place to visit for a driving or golfing holiday but that's about it.Theuniondivvie said:
Well, no one cares what you think, but I look forward to your overlords carrying one with that same line.squareroot2 said:
....and its irrelevant because there isn't going to be a poll that the sainted Nicola doesn't really want .. Agitate for it but have it.. naaah...Theuniondivvie said:Ding dong.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.
'Curtice said: “Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak. Unsurprisingly, for many nationalists, the past three months have exemplified how Scotland could govern itself better as an independent, small country. More importantly, it may have persuaded some former unionists of the merits of that claim, too.”
There is increasing gloom among senior unionist politicians in Conservative and Labour ranks in Scotland that independence is inevitable.'0 -
Davey carries the most baggage. Mr coalition.Mexicanpete said:
Darrin carries baggage that can make him look foolish to outsiders.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
There's just two parties like that?nichomar said:
Why would I join one of two corrupt parties who’s sole objective is to satisfy their paymasters and themselves?Philip_Thompson said:
Disbanding and joining the Tories/Labour? 😇eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.
The Lib Dems and which other party are you defining as like that? That allegation from you might stand up better if the Lib Dems sole primary concern was not how to change the voting system to suit themselves first.0 -
Farron was poor. His evangelical Christianity was a major problem as he couldn't see past his resurgent faith (which I share to some extent) that what he thinks isn't what everyone thinks. I struggle to think of something more illiberal than ramming something as personal as your own faith down other people's throats.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
True, and why has my auto correct changed Farron to Darrin? Chinese phones!Jonathan said:
Davey carries the most baggage. Mr coalition.Mexicanpete said:
Darrin carries baggage that can make him look foolish to outsiders.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
tbf he didnt really do that; the media knew it was his weak spot and repeatedly picked at it during interviews, until he fell into the inevitable beartrap.RochdalePioneers said:
Farron was poor. His evangelical Christianity was a major problem as he couldn't see past his resurgent faith (which I share to some extent) that what he thinks isn't what everyone thinks. I struggle to think of something more illiberal than ramming something as personal as your own faith down other people's throats.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
Nothing corrupt about wanting to change a corrupt voting system that leaves 60% of the population unrepresentative and results in an 80 seat majority on a minority vote.Philip_Thompson said:
There's just two parties like that?nichomar said:
Why would I join one of two corrupt parties who’s sole objective is to satisfy their paymasters and themselves?Philip_Thompson said:
Disbanding and joining the Tories/Labour? 😇eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.
The Lib Dems and which other party are you defining as like that? That allegation from you might stand up better if the Lib Dems sole primary concern was not how to change the voting system to suit themselves first.1 -
In both cases people are more responsible for their own actions than anyone else. Even imagining perfect government communications people still must make a choice to act.FrancisUrquhart said:I see twitter is full of people outraged at the sights of london streets packed with drinkers, saying they, boris, Cummings responsible for the incoming second wave. Funny how same people weren't on the outrage bus when it was protesters doing the same.
The police dont investigate or dont recommend further action regarding things all the time (a failure even by a parish councillor to properly declare an interest being a criminal offence feels like a case in point, which is one reason it's been recommended to no longer be a criminal level offence) so even at a matter of a couple of days I could see them not caring over much. An egregious breach though and theyd probably act.rcs1000 said:
Was is really "just a few hours"?Andy_JS said:
Yes I agree, if he broke the rules by a few hours it may have been a deliberate attempt to split opinion.Pulpstar said:I don't think anyone will care about Farage seeing as he was just hours away from quarantine anyway. Looks like a continuation of the endless culture wars - indeed Nice pro ably wanted this reaction.
The Tulsa rally was 14 days ago on the 20th of June. He would not have been able to fly out that night from Tulsa (what with the rally not ending until evening, and Tulsa not having direct flights to the UK).
He would have needed to transit to one of the four US airports with current direct flights to the UK: New York, Newark, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Realistically, the earliest he could have flow back would have been the day after the rally, i.e. the 21st of June, landing back in the UK on the 22nd of June. It is also possible that he stayed a day or two in the US for meetings after the rally.
I've looked through Nigel's Twitter, and I can see him getting very exercised about illegal immigrants crossing the channel. The first event on there which appears to definitely place him in the UK was a June 25th interview. So, my guess is that he landed between the 22nd and the 24th (although he could have landed on 25th and done the interview the same day).
So, he was in the UK for a maximum of 12 days and perhaps as little as 9.
(Whatever you think of the rules, it seems unlikely he was just "hours away" from the end of the quarantine period.)
On another matter entirely a rather interesting piece on Britain's first Asian MP back in the 1890s, albeit with a rather needless dig at Asian Brexiteer MPs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52829458
0 -
Its just another way of saying you think she can do no wrong.. Alex is looming on the horizon.. let us see after that.. she may be "sainted" after all.. maybe notTheuniondivvie said:
Yet here you are posting on the subject once again, indulging your curious obsession with 'the sainted Nicola'.squareroot2 said:
well....you would say that because you don't like hearing an alternative opinion to yours. Frankly no one or at least few really give a monkeys about Scotland, Its a great place to visit for a driving or golfing holiday but that's about it.Theuniondivvie said:
Well, no one cares what you think, but I look forward to your overlords carrying one with that same line.squareroot2 said:
....and its irrelevant because there isn't going to be a poll that the sainted Nicola doesn't really want .. Agitate for it but have it.. naaah...Theuniondivvie said:Ding dong.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.
'Curtice said: “Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak. Unsurprisingly, for many nationalists, the past three months have exemplified how Scotland could govern itself better as an independent, small country. More importantly, it may have persuaded some former unionists of the merits of that claim, too.”
There is increasing gloom among senior unionist politicians in Conservative and Labour ranks in Scotland that independence is inevitable.'
0 -
Farron!Mexicanpete said:
Darrin carries baggage that can make him look foolish to outsiders.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
He tried to avoid talking about it. I remember some LDs getting very angry about him being asked about it, even though following the election we now know he lied in at least one instance when asked about it.RochdalePioneers said:
Farron was poor. His evangelical Christianity was a major problem as he couldn't see past his resurgent faith (which I share to some extent) that what he thinks isn't what everyone thinks. I struggle to think of something more illiberal than ramming something as personal as your own faith down other people's throats.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.0 -
Yeah, yeah, yeah . . . I am sure the fact that the changes would massively help the party pushing for them is entirely coincidental.nichomar said:
Nothing corrupt about wanting to change a corrupt voting system that leaves 60% of the population unrepresentative and results in an 80 seat majority on a minority vote.Philip_Thompson said:
There's just two parties like that?nichomar said:
Why would I join one of two corrupt parties who’s sole objective is to satisfy their paymasters and themselves?Philip_Thompson said:
Disbanding and joining the Tories/Labour? 😇eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.
The Lib Dems and which other party are you defining as like that? That allegation from you might stand up better if the Lib Dems sole primary concern was not how to change the voting system to suit themselves first.
What is the policy to help the public - as opposed to the policy to help themselves - that the Lib Dems can be most associated with?0 -
Farron may well have been poor, bit is still better positioned than Davey to make a fresh start as a third party.RochdalePioneers said:
Farron was poor. His evangelical Christianity was a major problem as he couldn't see past his resurgent faith (which I share to some extent) that what he thinks isn't what everyone thinks. I struggle to think of something more illiberal than ramming something as personal as your own faith down other people's throats.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.
If the strategy is for LDs to become the old one nation Tory party and attract Rudd and co, then Davey is your man.0 -
I don't know your political persuasion Jonathan but you raise a key point - how people look on the coalition. I was a Labour activist during the coalition years so of course I was largely against it. But as a student of politics I know that all governments do good and bad (Labour towards the end had been mainly bad) and there were definitely some positives from the coalition. Clegg failed on an epic scale on three grounds - his personal decision to drop the tuition fees pledge whilst still campaigning on it, his inability to drive a yellow wedge between him and the Tories (the blues managed it just fine the other way round...) and the inability to claim credit for the things they did.Jonathan said:
Davey carries the most baggage. Mr coalition.Mexicanpete said:
Darrin carries baggage that can make him look foolish to outsiders.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.
In literally the last few days Davey has gone into battle against Gove stealing pupil premium. That is a good sign. The LibDems can draw positives from the coalition by positively claiming credit for all the good they did - pupil premium, triple lock pensions, green energy, gay marriage - and pointing out that not only was all the bad the Tories but look how bad they got when they won a majority. You don't win by trashing your own record in office. As for tuition fees - which is the singular issue that many people think of as the Coalition - that is simple to handle. Clegg did it. Didn't tell us. Didn't give us a choice. He's a lobbyist for Facebook's right to promote hate now. Go blame him.3 -
How is Huawei going to be banned from the UK? They provide the majority of our FTTC infrastructure, is the Government proposing to replace nearly all the street cabinets with an alternative supplier?0
-
Yes looking bad for SNP, as we know we get told on here regularly how badly they are handling things. Those numbers are worrying for some.Theuniondivvie said:Ding dong.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.0 -
SIR Ed l carries the coalition’s baggage in his name.RochdalePioneers said:
I don't know your political persuasion Jonathan but you raise a key point - how people look on the coalition. I was a Labour activist during the coalition years so of course I was largely against it. But as a student of politics I know that all governments do good and bad (Labour towards the end had been mainly bad) and there were definitely some positives from the coalition. Clegg failed on an epic scale on three grounds - his personal decision to drop the tuition fees pledge whilst still campaigning on it, his inability to drive a yellow wedge between him and the Tories (the blues managed it just fine the other way round...) and the inability to claim credit for the things they did.Jonathan said:
Davey carries the most baggage. Mr coalition.Mexicanpete said:
Darrin carries baggage that can make him look foolish to outsiders.Jonathan said:
Wilson or Farron would be better.eek said:
What other options do the Lib Dem’s actually have?Jonathan said:The tragedy for the Lib Dems is that neither Davey nor Moran are the right fit for today.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.
In literally the last few days Davey has gone into battle against Gove stealing pupil premium. That is a good sign. The LibDems can draw positives from the coalition by positively claiming credit for all the good they did - pupil premium, triple lock pensions, green energy, gay marriage - and pointing out that not only was all the bad the Tories but look how bad they got when they won a majority. You don't win by trashing your own record in office. As for tuition fees - which is the singular issue that many people think of as the Coalition - that is simple to handle. Clegg did it. Didn't tell us. Didn't give us a choice. He's a lobbyist for Facebook's right to promote hate now. Go blame him.0
