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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Finding the right frontrunner. Mixed messages from the Lib Dem
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Finding the right frontrunner. Mixed messages from the Lib Dems
It’s easy to forget, but there’s a leadership election going on. The Liberal Democrats misplaced their last leader during another disappointing election night and now needs a new one. There are two candidates, over 100,000 eligible voters (yes, really), eight weeks to go, and virtually no media coverage. Perfect time for a look at the betting options.
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In 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Blair did the same thing the Conservatives were being pummelled. That's probably now the LibDems' best hope: to go all out in attacking the tories in the hope that the Conservatives bomb in 2024 and the LibDems pick up seats as part of the Labour resurgence.
No-one it was done by a Lib Dem.
That's them all over.
I think it may be excessively generous to describe May's approach as 'triangulation'. It lacked basic foresight (she got hamstrung by her own "no deal is better than a bad deal" line in the Commons but if she'd adopted that approach in negotiation she would've gotten a better deal...).
Also, slight omission not to mention her good start was ruined by getting high on her own supply and endorsing a straight revocation rather than second referendum, a needless and foolish mistake as some elegant gentlemen renowned for wearing lace and bells may have asserted at the time.
"...Moran has scored some self-inflicted wounds..." - Bit too early in the morning for me to add the punchline.
Good points on Cable and the absence of a backlash, likewise the 'which change' line.
For what it's worth (not much) I agree that Davey seems to be value. Backed him a little a short time ago.
What the LibDems need to do is to get attention. There was arguably a market for dull competence, but Starmer's got that. So they should pick Layla, because she's interesting and has good glasses.
I think this is also an example of why Sedwill needed to go and a general insight into the complacent attitude if the establishment. They always think they know best, even though time and again it's been shown they don't have a clue.
Poor comparison maybe with Labour, but when one looks at the lying dissembling, self-serving object that was elected as Leader by the Conservative party........
FWIW, I think it reasonable to ask the question, it not being unreasonable to be curious about whether laws are enforced or not.
Kanye West declares he will run for US president in 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/jul/05/kanye-west-declares-he-will-run-for-us-president-in-2020
That means doubling their representation is going to be very hard work.
Edit - and that’s before we consider of their current 11 seats only 4 should be considered reasonably safe on paper - OW and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, and Bath. All of them have been Conservative held within the last five years. Indeed, the only seat to have been held by consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs is Orkney and Shetland, and even that’s not as safe as it once was. However, given the electorate there is very stable compared to the rest of Scotland in particular it might be considered another safe seat.
Betting PostF1: backed Hamilton to win with Bottas 2nd and Verstappen 3rd at 5.75.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/07/austria-pre-race-2020.html
I think the top three are very likely to retain those places, and with Mercedes a cut above Verstappen it seems the only question mark is whether Hamilton can pass Bottas. That seems a quite plausible outcome.
Though if we’re talking about consistency of policing, then perhaps the police should consider that Farage is also frequently interviewed...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/04/police-smash-car-window-ryan-colaco-tv-interview-racism
Is it media attention that you want? Or to rebuild a party hollowed out at the grassroots? A party which once gained 1800 seats in local government on a single night, and yet holds barely 2,500 in total now?
The first was the Thorpe strategy (not a reference to his ummm, later career) the latter the Grimond strategy. Thorpe took the Liberals to a high in seats after a near wipeout. But Grimond saved them from oblivion.
حقها تدلل حقها.. ليلى ليلى من
و الشافها يعشقها.. ليلى جانا من
It suits her to act flirtatious.. layla layla
Whomever sees her falls ill for her.. layla jana min 🎶🎶
دخيل رب العالي.. ليلى ليلى من
مثل القمر خالقها... ليلى جانا من
O' my lord up the skies.. layla layla
Like the moon you created her.. layla jana min 🎶🎶🎶
عندها طول و شخصية.. ليلى ليلى من
قمر بعيوني هيه.. ليلى جانا من🎶🎶🎶
She got tallness and personality.. layla layla
She's a moon in my eyes.. layla jana min 🎶🎶 🎶
لولا يطلع بيديا.. ليلى ليلى من
للموت ما افارقها.. ليلى جانا من 🎶🎶🎶
If it were up to me.. layla layla
Until death I wouldn't leave her.. layla jana min 🎶🎶🎶
يعجبني فيها الدلال ...ليلى ليلى من
مشيتها مشية غزال.. ليلى جانا من 🎶🎶
I like the coyness in her.. layla layla
She walks like a deer.. layla, Jana min 🎶🎶 🎶
الشفه تمر الحلة.. ليلى ليلى من
شعر الاشقر يتدلى.. ليلى جانا من 🎶🎶🎶
Her lips are sweet as a date.. layla, layla
Her blonde hair dangles.. layla, jana min 🎶🎶🎶
انا لخاطرها و الله... ليلى ليلى من
كل الدنيا لاحرقها.. ليلى جانا من
For her I swear to Allah.. Layla, Layla
The whole world I'd burn.. Layla, jana min 🎶 🎶🎶
But Ed will win. Probably.
Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1
SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in a large cohort of unexposed individuals as well as exposed family members and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative family members and individuals with a history of asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals.
There is something a little depressing about all the major parties being led by fifty something, overweight men with seats in the capital and its suburbs. That isn't a great reason to vote Layla though.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1279666527281852416?s=20
Seems Panelbase have cornered the market in Scotch polling.
On the other hand, the post Covid and post Brexit economic stewardship by the Conservatives could be so immense that all other parties outside Scotland become irrelevant as in 2019. Boris Johnson's surefooted nimbleness in masterfully saving his citizens from the ravages of further spikes of Coronavirus, may seem so impressive in relation to the second and third waves across Europe, that we justifiably reward him handsomely in May 2024. Then yes, the LDs are in trouble.
Given that binary choice, or something in between, I think the LDs might positively surprise.
Remember that at GE1997 the LDs saw their national vote down down but they went from 20 to 46 seats. They need Starmer to do well and he needs them to take CON seats that are out of reach to LAB
The FPTP system is tough on smaller parties of course, but the LD conception of a financially and environmentally sustainable internationalist country is one woth sticking with. Being unpopular is not the same as being wrong.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/04/state-will-never-improve-people-continue-hero-worship-employees/
” It is technically true, of course, that the officials who work in health procurement are state employees. But calling them “the government” is a cop-out. It suggests that, somehow, any problems are the fault of politicians – whose motives are never quite explained, but who are vaguely assumed to be malevolent. It lets us maintain a distinction between “the professionals” (pure, selfless, incorruptible) and “the government” (shoddy, dishonest, calculating).
“As long as we think that way, we give state agencies little incentive to raise they game. They might be staffed by the best, wisest and most industrious of people. But, being immune to public opinion, they are bound to underperform.
“This problem won’t be solved by appointing better officials – though that might help a little. What is needed is a radical diffusion and democratisation of decisions. Power should be shifted from unelected functionaries to elected representatives – whether by making quangos plead annually for their budgets before the relevant Commons committee or by transferring their function to local authorities. The competences that are coming back from the EU should not be hoarded in Whitehall, but passed down to county and metropolitan councils or, better yet, to private citizens.”
But to pat it back to you, is it really an either/or question; ought they not to be aspiring to do both ?
After all, they had a C&S with Labour in 1995-8 and it did little harm. Little good, either, to be fair, but when compared with the effect of Clegg's misplaced effort.....
yes, right there...
... almost twice as many exposed family members and healthy individuals who donated blood during the pandemic generated memory T cell responses versus antibody responses, implying that seroprevalence as an indicator has underestimated the extent of population-level immunity against SARS-CoV-2...
The study was conducted in Sweden for a couple of hundred individuals. I’m not sure you can directly extrapolate population numbers, as the study was designed to look at detailed T cell response rather than population statistics (which it does in great detail), but it’s nonetheless very interesting.
Alternatively, try understanding what the government is up to, and why they’re doing it, and criticise the policy rather than the people.
'Curtice said: “Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak. Unsurprisingly, for many nationalists, the past three months have exemplified how Scotland could govern itself better as an independent, small country. More importantly, it may have persuaded some former unionists of the merits of that claim, too.”
There is increasing gloom among senior unionist politicians in Conservative and Labour ranks in Scotland that independence is inevitable.'
The continuing bitterness and anger of some remainers is incredible, we all know that Davey wouldn't have reported someone like John Bercow if he'd done exactly the same, they don't seem to realise that Brexiteers love to wind them up.
On Daisy Cooper mentioned in the article, I've never heard of her so I googled, a new MP only elected last year for a very marginal seat who appears to have only ever worked for think tanks and as a political campaigner. If that's a 'rising star' then the LDs really are in the poo.
The best hope is for Moran to soften her madder streak and obvious private education and model herself of an the NZ pm.
Davey is a total dead loss.
I imagine many schools, colleges, and universities have done likewise. As a headline, it's tosh.
And it's pathetic to focus on that nonsense when there are numerous and serious flaws with Johnson to attack.
I also can't see the LDs getting much press during the next four years, these two dull as ditchwater candidates won't generate much hence the lack of coverage for this contest.
Its common sense not to go out if you've been exposed to the Rona as Farage likely has. We have rules about that which aren't restricted to having returned abroad. Farage doesn't care about those either. So the idea that LibDem members are going to see Davey acting on this and sucking teeth is absurd. Nor is this about votes - simply right and wrong. That ave_it thinks normals support Farage over their personal pain during all this just demonstrates that he is trolling. Nobody is that out of touch...
My sense and experience as a political activist is that most normals aren't ideological. They may often lean in one direction or another but not because of "left" or "right" but a sense of policy x will work for me and policy y won't. All the obsessive frothing from Labour and Tory members about shades of red and blue where having to fit into a moving box in the overton window of whatever version of "left" or "right" is currently orthodoxy simply doesn't apply to most normals.
What appealed last year was the sense that political tectonic plates were smashing apart. The LibDems recruited voters from old left and old right, and were competitive in seats held by both old parties. I'm comfortably centrist / third way / neo-Blairite at the moment, and policies that work appeals more than dogwhistle idolatry. Whats more many voters feel that way as well - Blair was literally hated for "right wing" law and order policies which were just normal to so many working class Labour voters. On the flip side the Tories seem quite happy to steal yellow clothes when it comes to things like the pupil premium and gay marriage.
So I'm voting for Ed Davey precisely because I think he can bridge across the party barriers. Him being a Secretary of State in the coalition is for me an advantage. Instead of sensible policies on energy market regulation being branded "marxist" by the Tories before largely being adopted, how about we drop the left/right labels and ask what we want from the energy market? Free broadband was absurdly ideological but we desperately need heavy investment in fast fibre - the state providing the infrastructure that private business can then buy access to (and sell to consumers) feels like a 21st century version of the Manchester Corporation building a hydraulic power network that businesses could plug into to make the city prosper. It isn't ideologically left or right, it just works.
Others will disagree of course. I don't care about narrow arguments about "policy x triangulates against position y" because its short term and stupid. You cant "tack to the left of Labour" as Moran proposes when "left" isn't a fixed point. Set out what you stand for, propose some policies, stand on your own turf.
That is the point you're trying to make.
There is simply no possible way to deny a vote if an absolute majority have voted SNP.
And don't be preposterous banging on about Salmond going on about "once in a generation" - Salmond is not leader and no Parliament can bind its successor, no leader can bind their successor. That's more than just a constitutional nicety its a fundamental principle of democracy.
The Lib Dems and which other party are you defining as like that? That allegation from you might stand up better if the Lib Dems sole primary concern was not how to change the voting system to suit themselves first.
On another matter entirely a rather interesting piece on Britain's first Asian MP back in the 1890s, albeit with a rather needless dig at Asian Brexiteer MPs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52829458
What is the policy to help the public - as opposed to the policy to help themselves - that the Lib Dems can be most associated with?
If the strategy is for LDs to become the old one nation Tory party and attract Rudd and co, then Davey is your man.
In literally the last few days Davey has gone into battle against Gove stealing pupil premium. That is a good sign. The LibDems can draw positives from the coalition by positively claiming credit for all the good they did - pupil premium, triple lock pensions, green energy, gay marriage - and pointing out that not only was all the bad the Tories but look how bad they got when they won a majority. You don't win by trashing your own record in office. As for tuition fees - which is the singular issue that many people think of as the Coalition - that is simple to handle. Clegg did it. Didn't tell us. Didn't give us a choice. He's a lobbyist for Facebook's right to promote hate now. Go blame him.