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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros this Thursday
Predicting an election when the three top parties could well end up within three or four points of one and other and in any order of gold, silver and bronze is likely a fool’s errand. But finding value in the betting market before Thursday isn’t.
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Add in SLAB's GOTV woes, and LAB could seriously underperform their respectable polling numbers.
My take on your five reasons:
1. Unlikely to make much difference
2. True, but already in the opinion polling
3. Differential turnout is likely to help UKIP more than Labour
4. You are being complacent about UKIP's campaigning skills
5. Maybe, but the polling doesn't really provide much support for that theory.
100% agree. I wonder if the recent hoo-haa over racism has led to some kipper respondents going 'shy', which could also account for them seeming to lose momentum.
A reasonable point Richard, it might be somewhat diluted though by a percentage of Labour and Ex Labour voters having a desire to register a modicum of disapproval at the coalitions policies.
I know that it will shock you to learn, but Georges economic miracle has not yet touched the majority, and at least a few of them are smart enough to work out why.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/elections-2014-labour-just-makes-empty-promises-all-ive-got-left-is-ukip-9399929.html
In 2009 the "big 5" totalled 82% of the votes. This year the average of the last 6 polls of the big 5 up to yesterday wasa total of 92.2%. The decline of the BNP from its 6% is not going to make up all of that gap. Which ones are the polls over estimating? UKIP and LAB are the highest.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0425m92/party-election-broadcasts-for-the-european-parliament-2014-uk-independence-party-01052014
I've backed Labour and agree with a lot of this.
I didn't say all voters, some of the working class are every bit as gullible as Tories.
2. The polls are agreed at putting the Tories on 19-21% for the Euros. I don't think they're going to surprise us on the upside.
3. As against that, UKIP supporters are older than average, and very committed to going out to vote. Overall, turnout in local elections, and EU elections, doesn't vary by much. I don't think there are that many people who would stay at home in a standalone Euro contest, who'll be motivated to go out and vote because their council is having an election.
Labour voters *are* motivated to vote in secondary elections, if there's a general election the same day - as in 2010.
4. Labour have many more members than UKIP, and their machine is more professional. This should help Labour on the day. However, I think you underestimate how hard many UKIP branches are campaigning in this election.
5. Three weeks ago, UKIP did seem to be running away with this election. I think that the relentless media campaign against them has set them back slightly. But, in the past 24 hours, we've had four polls still giving UKIP c.30% of the vote on average.
Or the relentless media campaign has made people a little less open about saying they are UKIP supporters???
But of course third would be a respectable result for the Tories if your spectre doesn't appear?
@paulwaugh: RT @laurapitel: Steel drummer at Ukip carnival says he was misled. If he knew it was for ukip he wouldn't have come. http://t.co/NWbhBhKpkF
There is some historical evidence that in the year when local elections coincide with a GE involving a change in Govt then the outgoing Govt party actually gains councillor seats. 1979, 1997 and 2010 saw this oddity happen.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-mp-demands-fictional-leaflet-from-her-own-party-is-withdrawn-9402047.html
@TCPoliticalBetting. No, it does not make sense for Labour. The majority of the Labour voters will vote in the polling booth. It does not make sense to send the Free stuff so early. Better to remind them just before the polls.
I am going to do my rounds tonight.
Croydon UKIP carnival: the Lobby (after lunch), sketch writers, Crick, steel drummers and assorted protesters. What could possibly go wrong?
Oh dear.
Typo? come Sunday, all will be "reviled"? (standard after any election)
"(Swindon) Presenter: You do know who Jim Grant is Mr Miliband?
EM: You will enlighten me I am sure.
Presenter: Swindon Labour leader.
EM: Yeah I think he is doing a good job.
Presenter: Will he feel like you support him enough if you don’t even know his name?"
But suddenly if it's the UK, it is GOOOOD to be out of the EU.
Okay, Labour is consistent in its position - as well as the few remaining LDs - but when it comes to Scottish politics' key current issue, they are in bed with the Tories, some of whom most certainly are not consistent, while the Kippers are banging on the door of the No Campaign office to be let in.
So, if I were a previous Labour or LD voter and had taken the trouble to turn out, I might think twice about voting for a Unionist party in the Euro elections.
UKIP 26.60%
Lab 25.84%
Con 23.37%
LD 8.01%
Green 7.05%
AIFE 2.08%
I also agree that UKIP supporters were (in their traditional anti EU mode) much more motivated to vote in the Euros, not least because there was a better chance of success. Whether that applies to the same extent to their NOTA Jonnie come latelys is less clear. I suspect not.
The tories and the Lib Dems are in government and the point of the Euros is to give the government a kicking so they will not do well either.
I suspect that turnout will be another low (I have a tiny bet with Nick about this) and that the vote will scatter wider than expected with the Greens doing well as a NOTA party without the nasty tinge (at least in most peoples' minds, personally I find most green policy very nasty and self serving).
Labour really ought to win as the principal opposition but the failure of Ed to capture the protest vote is one of his most important weaknesses. My guess is that Labour will not win. Again.
@Jack_Blanchard_: Ukip's multicultural carnival descends into anarchy as angry Romanians arrive with banners. The Ukip steel band has stopped playing #Croydon
Patronizing little git.
The live tweeting of this has been hilarious, UKIP are coming across as shambolic.
Here it is
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/20/mass-migration-is-a-tax-on-working-classes
@johnestevens: Ukip member yells at Romanian lady: "your country sent Jews to gas chamber, you'd wet your knickers if you met a real racist"
I think Labour will win these elections. They've hardly faced any criticism, while the other three parties and the media have done a full court press on UKIP. It would have to be an earthquake for UKIP to win despite such wall to wall negative coverage.
They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.
"But no man can you ask against his Maker to blaspheme whatever unless him to pay more you were. Three pounds for the music is good and one for the blasphemy look you."
The romanians did fight with the Germans - and at stalingrad, they probably wished they hadn't.
I have read that British police officers in Jersey assisted Germans in finding and expelling jews on the island during the occupation.
For goodness sake, this is Twitter. It's users are mainly the mentally deficient.
.
http://www.tpsonline.org.uk/tps/index.html
(I hate sharks who don't add any value to their customers)
Break out the yellow boxes and get with the program.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27488742.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/20/mass-migration-is-a-tax-on-working-classes
The steel band sounded like a terrible idea from the start, Ill give you (or the people you are retweeting should I say) that
EM: No, I know that Jim is doing a good job for Swindon and I think he is doing a good job as leader of the council.
Presenter: But he is not leader of the council is he Mr Miliband? It’s a Conservative led council.
EM: I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council. I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council.
Presenter: So let’s be clear. Who runs Swindon council?
EM: It’s a Conservative controlled council.
All intellectual superiority has evaporated and the last line is delivered like a contrite schoolboy. Arf!
http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/european-parliament-polling-13th-may
Field work was 13-16 May.
Had a call the other day from one of the people offering to “help” with the virus on my computer, as advised by Microsoft. When I said I used Mac he said I was very wise!
Hmm, anything by Ms Hjul needs to be read with care as there is never any doubt of her likely stance. That looks a very short and selective list of university student polls, for a start - I'm sure I've seen others. Though it may be the Reuters selection rather than hers.
Perhaps more importantly, has there been any discussion here of this poll by Carrington Dean and in particular what people think of it? It's an online poll with n =1042. Interestingly, although this has been in the news for a cuple of days, it's not mentioned in John Curtice's website.
Carrington Dean, in the Reuters story which is her source, is said to be a financial services company, and at least one report says it's a DIY job by CD themselves, which it does seem to be - in fact it is a wider 'Scottish Teen Money Survey':
http://www.carringtondean.com/media/resources/Carrington Dean Scottish Teen Money Survey.pdf
If it draws upon the existing customer base - and there is no indication one way or another - then you'd have an instant bias for higher socioeconomic groups. I see 90% are in education, 5% working and 5% unemployed, and a number of the other responses could be interpreted in that way though [edit] that could just as well be the financially clueless teenager factor. No indication at all of how selected let alone any balances.
I have nothing against the article, but he is committing the heresy of pointing out that George might not be the genius so many though.
The economy has not been "fixed", it has improved slightly (and far slower than after most other depression/recessions).
Most of what has got certain people excited has been the usual smoke and mirrors.
It's clear that unskilled immigration is going to press hardest on those who don't have differentiated skills. If the government is going to pursue this kind of policy, then they need to invest in providing the native inhabitants training or other means to obtain a higher paying job. That's what - I think - the minimum wage was intended to do (so much easier to spend other people's money) but the trade off is that (a) it's harder for young people to get their first job and (b) it can be very easily undercut by the ruthless, effectively making the situation even worse
UKIP are at the William Hague stage of de-toxification. In about 10 years time you will get a personable young leader with a wife who works in fashion, who introduces an A-list of ethnically and culturally diverse group of prospective MPs and endorses gay marriage.
Get ahead of the curve and just join the Tories and then you can still be right wing but at least have a chance of getting elected.
Awesome.
He was clearly inadequately briefed - that's a fairly obvious factoid that should be on the 1 pager before you go into the radio interview.
He shouldn't be expected to know that off the top of his head though
Very good piece and makes relevant points which should strike a chord.
Any amount of research has shown that migration provides a net benefit to the host country but that there are, as you highlight, losers amongst the lower-paid indigenous workforce. In theory (!) the increased profits accruing to the capital owners (or "the rich" as you call them!) result in extra investment including in capital stock and the workforce and hence results in job creation.
Does the theory always work in such simple, causal terms? Perhaps not. Has study after study confirmed the theory, however? Yep.
But you make a good point. Especially in this environment of distrust of politicians - not one would ever have the b@lls actually to spell out how winners and losers are determined. Do they fear the electorate wouldn't understand or do they want everything they utter to be unalloyed good news? Not sure but for sure none of them would dare tell it like it is.
@MichaelLCrick: No sign of Nigel Farage at croydon "carnival" yet. One report says he was waiting in car round the corner, but has now left the area.
Backs:
£17.86 Con Votes @ 29.00
£13.52 Con Votes @ 23.00
£20.00 Con Votes @ 7.00
£2.00 Con Votes @ 11.0
£18.00 Labour @ 4.072 (w/o Betfair Commission)
£20 Labour @ 1.91
£25 Labour @ 2.5
£60 UKIP @ 2.10
£30 UKIP @ 1.80
Lays:
£62.29 Con Votes @ 10.79 (w/o Betfair Commission)
Other:
Tricast: UKIP Con Lab £10 @ 11.0
UKIP Con Lab £15 @ 13.0
London Region: Labour £59.09 @ 2.1
Greens to beat Lib Dems £5 @ 2.375
SNP to win Scotland £5 @ 1.25