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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros

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  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    O/T Anthropogenic Global Warming:

    April 2014 comes in as the warmest April ever recorded.

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/4

    With El-Niño about to kick off, will 2014 be the warmest year ever recorded? Would be good to get a betting market on it....

    Meanwhile, temperatures over England remain anomalously warm - as it has done for a number of months now. What price for the warmest Spring ever recorded in the CET series.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693

    An excellent piece from Marcus Roberts, which deserved far more comment and appreciation than it has so far received.
    That's hardly surprising however, PB.com barely qualifies any longer as a betting site as the content relating to such matters is minimal and sadly most of the best tipsters/punters have long since departed this place.

    What happened to Peter the Punter? I've never claimed to be a great tipster, although I wish I was. I could use the money.

    I still can't see a route to Labour winning the Euros this week, though I admit I don't really 'know' what's going on and it's mainly a hunch. I'm in too deep on UKIP to cover myself with Labour bets even if I wanted to.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    dr_spyn said:

    However the Politics web page doesn't have the link to Miliband's car crash interview. Perhaps the BBC Wiltshire page has more visitors. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27483541

    "Pressed on whether he knew who Mr Grant - the leader of the Labour group on Swindon Borough Council - was, Mr Miliband replied: "You'll enlighten me, I'm sure." "

    And that's where the radio interview ends, incredible. - Pull your pop socks up Auntie, being "impartial" does not entail airbrushing out Ed's embarrassing bits.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, I follow the logic but this looks like a value loser to me. I can't see Labour finishing outside the top two (if they do, that will be seismic), but UKIP have generally performed at the top end of their polling expectations in recent years while Labour have generally underperformed their polling expectations. With UKIP already in the lead, I'm not tempted at this price.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:

    An excellent piece from Marcus Roberts, which deserved far more comment and appreciation than it has so far received.
    That's hardly surprising however, PB.com barely qualifies any longer as a betting site as the content relating to such matters is minimal and sadly most of the best tipsters/punters have long since departed this place.

    Bet on Camden house prices going up.

    We're getting our first Waitrose!

    http://www.camdennewjournal.com/news/2014/jan/put-papaya-down-orlando-waitrose-coming-camden-town

    It opens at the end of May. I am going to be the first in the queue to buy artisanal sourdough and Vietnamese chocolate.
    Have local house prices risen on the news that one of the markets burnt down last night, improving the area?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    murali_s said:

    Meanwhile, temperatures over England remain anomalously warm - as it has done for a number of months now. What price for the warmest Spring ever recorded in the CET series.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

    The run of warm temperatures in the CET series since July last year is remarkable.

    At the moment the spring anomaly this year is just a tiny bit higher than the record (2011, mainly due to a scorching April when the weather obliged for Kate and Will's marriage). However it looks like the end of May will be a bit cooler than of late, near average in temperature, and so I'd judge it's slightly more likely that the record will be missed.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2014
    antifrank - which bet are you referring to with Labour outside the top two, certainly not mine?

    Casino - PtP is still very much around, in fact he was posting on here just a couple of days ago. But he seems to have lost his appetite for political betting. Oh for the good old days and those money machines, aka "caveman" , "Jan from Norway" , not forgetting URW (R.I.P.), etc.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:


    They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.

    Speaking as the most Europhiliac, I don't think anyone's ever managed to come up with a meaningful explanation of what a "demos" is supposed to mean in this context, certainly not such that the UK has been a single one for a long time, but the EU isn't one now.

    Basically I think what we're seeing is nationalist people, fond of a particular nation, trying to pretend that they're concerned with democracy instead of nationalism, hence the appeal to incoherent pop sociology.
    Well, it's defined as a single political unit - I think you could reasonably argue that it is the largest political unit that people identify with as their primary source of identity.

    So while people may identify as, for instance, Londoners, English, British and European, I think if you asked most people in a forced choice the majority*, would put "British" (rather than as European) as their primary identification. Clearly there is scope for disagreement - such as in Scotland - which is why the Demos can change over time.

    * of course you, as an advocate of an independent London, are in a class all of your own ;-)
    A single political unit or the largest political unit people identify with as their primary source of identity? These are very different things. The first definition makes the demos of British people the EU. The second definition means Scotland isn't part of the same demos as the rest of the UK, and probably never has been. That's not "scope for disagreement", it's the overwhelming evidence of the polling.
    Well clearly most people identify to a greater or lesser extent with different classifications.

    Personally I am a Londoner, a country-boy, a Brit, and Englishman, a European, a Pilgrim and a Lizard. Some of those may not be true.

    But I would say that the Demos is the largest single unit that people identify with as their primary political identification. As for Scotland: the debate is going on at the moment, or haven't you noticed? 40% are thereabouts seem to the think Scotland is the demos; 60% think it is the UK (albeit in a forced choice)
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    2009 Euros result were: UKIP + BNP = 23%. Labour = 16%. Conservatives = 27%. Liberal Dem ='13%. Can't see Tories beating 27%. Labour, can't see them beating 27% either. So maybe UKIP will win. Still. Can't see them beating 27% either. Maybe Greens hit 10% as protest party.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2014
    Charles said:

    But I would say that the Demos is the largest single unit that people identify with as their primary political identification. As for Scotland: the debate is going on at the moment, or haven't you noticed? 40% are thereabouts seem to the think Scotland is the demos; 60% think it is the UK (albeit in a forced choice)

    No, that's not what's being polled at 40% vs 60% in Scotland. What's being polled is which political unit they want to be part of, not which they primarily identify with. A lot of the arguments being put forward on either side are practical ones (how would Scotland do with its own currency, what would happen to its financial sector?) not identity ones.

    Your definition of demos _has_ been polled, and it's very clear that if your definition is right, Scotland is a different demos. It's not even close:
    Data released from the 2011 census showed 62% described themselves as "Scottish only", while 18% said they were "Scottish and British".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-24282271
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    UKIPcarnival on ITV now
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MrJones said:

    Media-ocracy: fake democracy where a handful of unelected people in the media decide what opinions you're allowed to choose from with the number of options on the list gradually narrowing over time to one.

    Top post Mr jones.

  • Are you taking into account the reports that Bradford Council are illegally turning EU citizens away from their ballot boxes today?

    Probably sheer incompetence rather than fraud, buy hey!
This discussion has been closed.