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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    I feel tempted to vote Green in the hope of shoving the Lib Dems down to 5th place in England.

    It would be dreadful if Nick Clegg's life work were to lie in a heap of smouldering ashes.

    Why can't people just forget about the bloody Cacti green house saga - he was just a kid..!
    How can we ever forget (or forgive) the murder of cacti, though?

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Ukip's multicultural carnival descends into anarchy as angry Romanians arrive with banners. The Ukip steel band has stopped playing #Croydon

    The live tweeting of this has been hilarious, UKIP are coming across as shambolic.

    Consistently anti-UKIP PB poster views tweets from consistently anti-UKIP tweeters as showing UKIP are shambolic. Stop the press.

    For goodness sake, this is Twitter. It's users are mainly the mentally deficient.
    This is what I love about the Kippers.

    Dave and chumoracy look down on and denigrate ordinary people etc is the charge against Dave, yet Kippers think it is ok accuse some people of this Great country of being mentally deficient because they don't like UKIP.

    This in no way confirms the stereotype that UKIP are a bunch of angry men.
    Absolutely, UKIP are the party of elderly, male, middle-class, golfe-club bores who haven't adjusted to the fact that the empire has gone. Oh, and they are a bunch of racists as well. Now, lets look at those polling figures you put up - UKIP on 35%. That cannot be right, can it?
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron - I'm not an accountant.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. F, indeed. Clegg is a self-confessed vegicidal maniac.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Well if PB were a 10-member constituency, we'd be returning:

    4 x Con
    3 x Lab
    2 x LD
    1 x UKIP

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Ukip's multicultural carnival descends into anarchy as angry Romanians arrive with banners. The Ukip steel band has stopped playing #Croydon

    The live tweeting of this has been hilarious, UKIP are coming across as shambolic.

    Consistently anti-UKIP PB poster views tweets from consistently anti-UKIP tweeters as showing UKIP are shambolic. Stop the press.

    For goodness sake, this is Twitter. It's users are mainly the mentally deficient.
    This is what I love about the Kippers.

    Dave and chumoracy look down on and denigrate ordinary people etc is the charge against Dave, yet Kippers think it is ok accuse some people of this Great country of being mentally deficient because they don't like UKIP.

    This in no way confirms the stereotype that UKIP are a bunch of angry men.
    Absolutely, UKIP are the party of elderly, male, middle-class, golfe-club bores who haven't adjusted to the fact that the empire has gone. Oh, and they are a bunch of racists as well. Now, lets look at those polling figures you put up - UKIP on 35%. That cannot be right, can it?
    Did I say they were racists?

    The point is, it's not a good strategy to actively insulting a segment of the electorate.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. Llama, to be fair, we're all still adjusting to the sad decline and demise of the Empire. I blame Marcus Aurelius, to be honest.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    corporeal said:

    Mr. Corporeal, Tell Me When* it's due up.

    *Yes, yes, that was technically the 90s, but it had an 80s flavour.

    I'm not encouraging you anymore. I get enough of this from TSE as it is.
    The Sunday Afternoon thread waiting for the Euro results has been prepared, and contains my subtlest* ever 80s pop music reference ever.

    The headline is The Results for Elections for Europe - The Final Countdown

    And the opening paragraph has the sentences, if Ed or Nigel don't win, I guess there is no one to blame... If UKIP win, Will things ever be the same again?.... If The Tories finish third, that may be expected, But still it's farewell to the Tories small hopes of winning an outright majority in 2015.

    *Yes, that may cause epistemological problems, of sufficient magnitude as to lay upon the logical and semantic resources of the English language a heavier burden than they can reasonably be expected to bear.
    "Baby Blue" by Badfinger would also suit the leader of a party that does poorly.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751

    Mr. Llama, to be fair, we're all still adjusting to the sad decline and demise of the Empire. I blame Marcus Aurelius, to be honest.

    Ah yes. the Empire that really began when the great military strategist, Julius Caesar was appointed Dictator for Life.
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    Just looking at those added extras that TSE has generously given us; Lib Dems on 5% of those certain to vote. I mean, seriously? If that poll turns out to be accurate I shall laugh myself sick but I struggle to believe it will. We are talking here about a party that has 57 MPs and has influence in government far beyond what that number would suggest, a party, furthermore that has been around for hundreds of years. Could it really be reduced to 5% of the vote? Nah, surely it can't happen.

    Wythenshawe byelection - LD=5%
    S Shields - LD=1%
    Rotherham - LD=2%
    Corby - 5%

    Outside of their strongholds they've been getting terrible results for some time. FWIW - I think 8% is more likely
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    *raises an eyebrow*

    Mr. Eagles, you're confusing an eastern despot's bed-warmer for the first emperor.

    Also, the republic would've been better, but the way things went seemed to make empire inevitable. The problem was that Augustus never properly set up a legal basis, so might is right continued. During the Golden Age (ended by the idiot Aurelius) things looked great, but Commodus revealed how fragile a system is that depends ultimately on one man, in the same way Hannibal showed that Rome's superior system (at the time) mattered more than than his own predominant strategic skill.

    Caesar's civil wars set up a precedent that dogged the Empire until its final days.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751

    *raises an eyebrow*

    Mr. Eagles, you're confusing an eastern despot's bed-warmer for the first emperor.

    Also, the republic would've been better, but the way things went seemed to make empire inevitable. The problem was that Augustus never properly set up a legal basis, so might is right continued. During the Golden Age (ended by the idiot Aurelius) things looked great, but Commodus revealed how fragile a system is that depends ultimately on one man, in the same way Hannibal showed that Rome's superior system (at the time) mattered more than than his own predominant strategic skill.

    Caesar's civil wars set up a precedent that dogged the Empire until its final days.

    The Roman Empire (Latin: Imperium Romanum) was the post-Republican period of the ancient Roman civilization, characterised by an autocratic form of government and large territorial holdings around the Mediterranean Sea in Europe, Africa, and Asia. The 500-year-old Roman Republic, which preceded it, had been destabilized through a series of civil wars.

    Several events marked the transition from Republic to Empire, including Julius Caesar's appointment as perpetual dictator (44 BC); the Battle of Actium (31 BC); and the granting of the honorific Augustus to Octavian by the Roman Senate (27 BC).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Empire
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. Eagles, do you think Caesar was the first emperor?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751

    Mr. Eagles, do you think Caesar was the first emperor?

    De facto, spiritually and morally he was.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Ukip's multicultural carnival descends into anarchy as angry Romanians arrive with banners. The Ukip steel band has stopped playing #Croydon

    The live tweeting of this has been hilarious, UKIP are coming across as shambolic.

    Consistently anti-UKIP PB poster views tweets from consistently anti-UKIP tweeters as showing UKIP are shambolic. Stop the press.

    For goodness sake, this is Twitter. It's users are mainly the mentally deficient.
    This is what I love about the Kippers.

    Dave and chumoracy look down on and denigrate ordinary people etc is the charge against Dave, yet Kippers think it is ok accuse some people of this Great country of being mentally deficient because they don't like UKIP.

    This in no way confirms the stereotype that UKIP are a bunch of angry men.
    Absolutely, UKIP are the party of elderly, male, middle-class, golfe-club bores who haven't adjusted to the fact that the empire has gone. Oh, and they are a bunch of racists as well. Now, lets look at those polling figures you put up - UKIP on 35%. That cannot be right, can it?
    Did I say they were racists?

    The point is, it's not a good strategy to actively insulting a segment of the electorate.
    "Did I say they were racists?"

    Not that I am aware of Mr Eagles and I don't expect to find you called UKIP a bunch of "Elderly, male, middle-class, golf-club bores who haven't adjusted to the fact that the empire has gone", either. I was, in my clumsy way, trying to using a rhetorical construct to point out the difference between what the establishment would have us believe and the level of popular support. Cameron was at it again this morning, he doesn't seem to grasp that the people who are seemingly flocking to UKIP are doing so in spite of his abuse of them.


    "... it's not a good strategy to actively insulting a segment of the electorate"

    I agree and am amazed that Cameron does it so often, but he does and then, it seems to me, to be puzzled as to why his party is not doing as well as he would like.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    DanHodges – “I’ve just returned from the inaugural “Nigel Farage Festival of British Multiculturalism”, and sadly, I have to report it was not a great success. To be fair, Croydon's Whitgift Centre – Home Of Croydon shopping – was never going to rival Rio or Notting Hill.”

    http://tinyurl.com/p59xbvh
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Well if PB were a 10-member constituency, we'd be returning:

    4 x Con
    3 x Lab
    2 x LD
    1 x UKIP

    Currently Con 71; Lab 47; LD 40; UKIP 17; Green 8 (exc others - 13, on the assumption there are no more than 8).

    On the D'Hondt (rounding up - unsure what happens usually)
    Con, Lab, LD, Con, Lab, Con, LD, Con, UKIP, Lab.

    Which I guess might have been your calculation.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. Eagles, you're standing atop a mountain of wrongness.

    Augustus was the first emperor.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited May 2014
    Ed having a cracking day I see.

    If shopping basket-gate was a mild blip, the Jim Grant...who, what, Labour run, no Labour something, maybe, could, should be, good job...gate is hilarious.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751

    Mr. Eagles, you're standing atop a mountain of wrongness.

    Augustus was the first emperor.

    And whose name did he adopt, who was his uncle etc.
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    Max_EdinburghMax_Edinburgh Posts: 347

    DanHodges – “I’ve just returned from the inaugural “Nigel Farage Festival of British Multiculturalism”, and sadly, I have to report it was not a great success. To be fair, Croydon's Whitgift Centre – Home Of Croydon shopping – was never going to rival Rio or Notting Hill.”

    http://tinyurl.com/p59xbvh

    And yet some people here would have this lot running the country. Can you even begin to imagine the chaos that would bring!
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Mr. Eagles, do you think Caesar was the first emperor?

    Of course, that's why they named a meal and a drink after him - Caesar salad and Orange Julius :-)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ask not for whom the band plays, Nigel. It plays for...

    Oh, wait...
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,167
    Tim_B said:

    Mr. Eagles, do you think Caesar was the first emperor?

    Of course, that's why they named a meal and a drink after him - Caesar salad and Orange Julius :-)
    Not to mention a calendar.

    But why don't Marius and/or Sulla qualify any more or less? I was always taught Augustus was the first Emperor qua emperor, but M, S and Julius were all Imperatores sensu warlords/faction leaders.

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2014

    DanHodges – “I’ve just returned from the inaugural “Nigel Farage Festival of British Multiculturalism”, and sadly, I have to report it was not a great success. To be fair, Croydon's Whitgift Centre – Home Of Croydon shopping – was never going to rival Rio or Notting Hill.”

    http://tinyurl.com/p59xbvh

    And yet some people here would have this lot running the country. Can you even begin to imagine the chaos that would bring!
    They'll blame it on Romanians.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin
    Apologies, must have had a cross thread somewhere (I blame it on the dog needing walked)
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Well if PB were a 10-member constituency, we'd be returning:

    4 x Con
    3 x Lab
    2 x LD
    1 x UKIP

    How Labour get 3 is beyond me! There's only me and Smarmeron on here! No wonder we wanted to cling onto the old boundaries ;-)
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    edited May 2014
    I see the Roman Catholic Church is opposed to UKIP:-

    http://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/758/0/bishop-cautions-against-ukip-as-catholics-urged-to-vote-in-european-elections

    I'll look forward to what Life in a Market Town has to say about this.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. Eagles, you're right, Caesar's greatest claim to fame is being a relative of Augustus.

    Mr. Carnyx, Augustus was undoubtedly in charge and remained so. The others had power but it was transient. Bit late for me, but I believe Sulla voluntarily gave up his dictatorial power after reforming the role of tribunes to try and put the republic on an even keel.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nigel Farage has been reported to Britain’s racism watchdog.

    The Ukip leader suggested people in London would be right to be concerned if Romanians moved in next door.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-faces-racism-watchdog-probe-over-romanians-remark-9404024.html
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    DanHodges – “I’ve just returned from the inaugural “Nigel Farage Festival of British Multiculturalism”, and sadly, I have to report it was not a great success. To be fair, Croydon's Whitgift Centre – Home Of Croydon shopping – was never going to rival Rio or Notting Hill.”

    http://tinyurl.com/p59xbvh

    That is a really funny article. Whatever one thinks of his political prognostications, he does write well.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    FPT

    @Stodge. I don't. I particularly hope your vote holds up in Tory/Lib marginals.
    @JonathanD. From a very, very low base. Not by enough to fill the vacancies.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Glenn Ebrey ‏@glennebrey 1h

    I just don't really know what to say about this... (via @grantmelton1) #ukipcarnival pic.twitter.com/9Jy6szucjW

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    DanHodges – “I’ve just returned from the inaugural “Nigel Farage Festival of British Multiculturalism”, and sadly, I have to report it was not a great success. To be fair, Croydon's Whitgift Centre – Home Of Croydon shopping – was never going to rival Rio or Notting Hill.”

    http://tinyurl.com/p59xbvh

    That is a really funny article. Whatever one thinks of his political prognostications, he does write well.
    'Where most events of this kind are graced by beautifully adorned and vibrant floats, Nigel Farage had opted for what looked like an especially sinister black riot van, which proceeded to beam out uplifting messages of peace and love such as: “Whose job are they after? Yours.”'
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Sean_F said:

    I see the Roman Catholic Church is opposed to UKIP:-

    http://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/758/0/bishop-cautions-against-ukip-as-catholics-urged-to-vote-in-european-elections

    I'll look forward to what Life in a Market Town has to say about this.

    And that Ninoinoz fellow. I think he might have mentioned Catholicism a few times here.....
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Nigel Farage has been reported to Britain’s racism watchdog.

    That is a pretty stupid thing for any of Farage's opponents to do, in my view.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    DanHodges – “I’ve just returned from the inaugural “Nigel Farage Festival of British Multiculturalism”, and sadly, I have to report it was not a great success. To be fair, Croydon's Whitgift Centre – Home Of Croydon shopping – was never going to rival Rio or Notting Hill.”

    http://tinyurl.com/p59xbvh

    And yet some people here would have this lot running the country. Can you even begin to imagine the chaos that would bring!
    They'll blame it on Romanians.
    Rubber Romanians?

    Gareth Davies ‏@Gareth_Davies09
    To clarify from earlier, the protesters, despite posters, are not from Romania. They are now being questioned by journos for that
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014

    Several events marked the transition from Republic to Empire, including Julius Caesar's appointment as perpetual dictator (44 BC); the Battle of Actium (31 BC); and the granting of the honorific Augustus to Octavian by the Roman Senate (27 BC).

    I think the learned editors at Wikipedia are construing empire and republic not as they were used by contemporaries, but according to more modern definitions. There was no incompatibility between monarchy, republic and empire; the lexical opposite of republic being tyranny, not empire or monarchy. Thus Seneca's De Clementia, addressed to Nero(!), argues that the prince is the soul of the res publica. The best places to start on pre-seventeenth century "republicanism" are:
    (1) M.S. Kempshall, ‘De Re Publica I.39 in Medieval and Renaissance Political Thought’, in J.G.F. Powell & J.A. North (eds), Cicero’s Republic, (London, 2001).
    (2) J. Hankins, 'Exclusivist Republicanism and the Non-Monarchical Republic', Political Theory, 38(4), (2010), pp. 458-482.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Llama, to be fair, we're all still adjusting to the sad decline and demise of the Empire. I blame Marcus Aurelius, to be honest.

    Naughty, Mr Dancer. Firstly, you are talking about the wrong empire. Secondly, your comment might induce the uninitiated to these pages to think that I was in some way an an old-style Churchillian imperialist whereas it is my belief that the Empire was the worst thing ever to have happened to England.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Francis

    Neither will make the slightest bit of difference.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. Town, surely anarchy? Tyranny was the evil twin of monarchy. Assuming you're referring to the Lycurgan/Polybian three-sided constitution.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited May 2014
    An excellent piece from Marcus Roberts, which deserved far more comment and appreciation than it has so far received.
    That's hardly surprising however, PB.com barely qualifies any longer as a betting site as the content relating to such matters is minimal and sadly most of the best tipsters/punters have long since departed this place.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Whatever one thinks of his political prognostications, he does write well.

    Apart from the bit where he patronises the three 'old ladies' who are 'cooing' for Nigel's arrival.


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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. Llama, as Marcus Aurelius was never King of England I don't see how any confusion could occur. As for the British Empire, you cannot possibly expect me to be familiar with such a vulgarly recent period of history.

    Mr. Putney, d'you think there's any value to be head in betting on who'll top the poll?
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    Mr. Town, surely anarchy? Tyranny was the evil twin of monarchy. Assuming you're referring to the Lycurgan/Polybian three-sided constitution.

    Per Cicero, DRP 3.43, 'Ergo ubi tyrannus est, ibi . . . dicendum est plane nullam esse rem publicam.'
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    edited May 2014
    Charles said:


    They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.

    Speaking as the most Europhiliac, I don't think anyone's ever managed to come up with a meaningful explanation of what a "demos" is supposed to mean in this context, certainly not such that the UK has been a single one for a long time, but the EU isn't one now.

    Basically I think what we're seeing is nationalist people, fond of a particular nation, trying to pretend that they're concerned with democracy instead of nationalism, hence the appeal to incoherent pop sociology.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Scott_P said:

    Nigel Farage has been reported to Britain’s racism watchdog.

    The Ukip leader suggested people in London would be right to be concerned if Romanians moved in next door.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-faces-racism-watchdog-probe-over-romanians-remark-9404024.html

    Ah Keith Vaz!

    My enemies enemy truly is my friend
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Basically I think what we're seeing is nationalist people, attached to a particular nation, trying to pretend that they're concerned with democracy instead of nationalism, hence the appeal to incoherent pop sociology.

    See the article in the Spectator yesterday on that very topic
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. Town, ah, my mistake, I thought you were referencing the monarchy/aristocracy/democracy versus tyranny/oligrachy/anarchy models of governance. Sadly, I haven't read any Cicero at all, as yet.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    edited May 2014
    Today I've laid the Conservatives and backed Labour.

    Biggest Green now on Conservative 2nd place (UKIP win), but I think they'll probably end up 3rd.

    I'll probably make tuppence ha'penny from the Euros tbh.
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    My one worry about betting on LAB MOST VOTES in the Euros is that LAB voters are famously lazy in non-GE elections. Vast swathes of them will tell pollsters and canvassers that they will be voting Labour but then have find that they have better things to do on Thursday.

    Add in SLAB's GOTV woes, and LAB could seriously underperform their respectable polling numbers.

    The big difference with that is postal votes. As they know the postal voters they can go knock them up, fill it in for them, offer to post it etc.

    This reduces the flakiness factor and also gently pushes the reluctant vote.



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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Freggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see the Roman Catholic Church is opposed to UKIP:-

    http://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/758/0/bishop-cautions-against-ukip-as-catholics-urged-to-vote-in-european-elections

    I'll look forward to what Life in a Market Town has to say about this.

    And that Ninoinoz fellow. I think he might have mentioned Catholicism a few times here.....
    Is Ninoinoz a catholic?

    I'll get my coat etc etc.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited May 2014
    Is John Rentoul a big name in America? Just wonder why he warrent's a blue tick next to his made on Twitter :D
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    All we need is for someone to whisper the name "Eulalie" in Nigel Farage's ear, and our week will be complete.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/05/19/another-voting-system-that-favours-ukip/

    An interesting item from John Rentoul. There certainly are individual Conservative MEPs, like Syed Kamall, Daniel Hannan, or Vicky Ford, who I'd vote for.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    taffys said:

    Whatever one thinks of his political prognostications, he does write well.

    Apart from the bit where he patronises the three 'old ladies' who are 'cooing' for Nigel's arrival.


    DanHodges – “I’ve just returned from the inaugural “Nigel Farage Festival of British Multiculturalism”, and sadly, I have to report it was not a great success. To be fair, Croydon's Whitgift Centre – Home Of Croydon shopping – was never going to rival Rio or Notting Hill.”

    http://tinyurl.com/p59xbvh

    That is a really funny article. Whatever one thinks of his political prognostications, he does write well.
    So would you if you wrote the same article 1,000 times.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    antifrank said:

    All we need is for someone to whisper the name "Eulalie" in Nigel Farage's ear, and our week will be complete.

    Like
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Is it me, or were we briefed David Axelrod would be focusing on Ed's media appearances...
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    @antifrank you are Roderick Spode, 7th Earl of Sidcup and I claim my £5.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    dr_spyn said:
    Except where they write this: "A former gymnast, Logan now presents sports coverage for the BBC"

    Admittedly it was directly under a rather fetching photograph of the said Ms Logan, so I can forgive you for being distracted
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    I've been out on a client meeting today with 2 hours drive each way - on way home Jon Pienaar came on as he'd spent the day with Ed M and reported how many people liked Ed when they met him, warmed to him in person and whilst some said he wasn't Prime Ministerial, that didn't mean he wouldn't be Prime Minister.... he then interviewed 3 people who'd listened to Ed including one bloke who was so excited what Ed had said, he'd written down his concluding sentence and which he then read out to us.

    Jon appars to have utterly missed Ed's excellent interviews that I'm seeing reported on Guido and the Speccie...
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014

    Mr. Town, ah, my mistake, I thought you were referencing the monarchy/aristocracy/democracy versus tyranny/oligrachy/anarchy models of governance. Sadly, I haven't read any Cicero at all, as yet.

    The sixfold model of constitutions is Greek rather than Latin, and derives ultimately from Plato and Aristotle. Democracy is not considered by any classical political theorist as a legitimate constitution. It is the mob governing in its own interest, rather than in the interest of the common good of the life of virtue. It is considered the corrupt form of the virtuous rule of the many, which Aristotle renders as politeia. Also in Aristotle (Politics, Bk. V) and Polybius (Histories, Bk. VI) is the elusive "mixed constitution", which contains elements of the other three legitimate constitutions. It is this "mixed constitution" which is supposedly practised in Lycurgus' Sparta and Rome after Numa...
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Charles said:


    They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.

    Speaking as the most Europhiliac, I don't think anyone's ever managed to come up with a meaningful explanation of what a "demos" is supposed to mean in this context, certainly not such that the UK has been a single one for a long time, but the EU isn't one now.

    Basically I think what we're seeing is nationalist people, fond of a particular nation, trying to pretend that they're concerned with democracy instead of nationalism, hence the appeal to incoherent pop sociology.
    It all depends on how you're meaning nationalism. I think it is commonly understood to mean an extreme form of patriotism that emphasises superiority of other nations, but I'm guessing you don't mean that. I think you just mean people that are patriotic in the broader sense, and believe their nation should govern itself. You are correct in that, but I don't feel that means they're "pretending" to be concerned with democracy. I think history has shown that democracy works best when it's one group that is involved. When you have multiple groups, like in Nigeria, or Belgium, or Bosnia, it quickly ends up devolving into a massive spat of mutual resentment. When it tends to be one group, like in Botswana, or Sweden, or Ireland (outside the North), it tends to work. The case of Scotland seems to be somewhere in the middle.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Scrapheap-

    Not so much Ed is crap - as Ed is great!!! OGH should be banned from going on holiday :):)
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    surbiton said:

    Does anyone have any ides who most of the East Europeans in the UK would vote for ?

    .

    Ironically enough I'd imagine most non-Roma east europeans would vote Ukip (if you excluded immigration).
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. Town, indeed, I rather like the mixed constitution. It worked very well in Rome for a long time.
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    Mr. Llama, as Marcus Aurelius was never King of England I don't see how any confusion could occur. As for the British Empire, you cannot possibly expect me to be familiar with such a vulgarly recent period of history.

    Mr. Putney, d'you think there's any value to be head in betting on who'll top the poll?

    Morris - I did suggest a combination bet on PB yesterday - backing Labour to win at 2.8/1 and covering the stake for this bet by backing the result to be UKIP - Lab - Con with Ladbrokes' Tricast at odds of 4/5.

    Unfortunately, although the Tricast odds remain unchanged, Labour's winning odds have since shortened to 2.4/1 and therefore much of the value in this bet has now gone.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Don't forget your free coffee.
    SeanT said:

    An excellent piece from Marcus Roberts, which deserved far more comment and appreciation than it has so far received.
    That's hardly surprising however, PB.com barely qualifies any longer as a betting site as the content relating to such matters is minimal and sadly most of the best tipsters/punters have long since departed this place.

    Bet on Camden house prices going up.

    We're getting our first Waitrose!

    http://www.camdennewjournal.com/news/2014/jan/put-papaya-down-orlando-waitrose-coming-camden-town

    It opens at the end of May. I am going to be the first in the queue to buy artisanal sourdough and Vietnamese chocolate.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MrJones said:

    surbiton said:

    Does anyone have any ides who most of the East Europeans in the UK would vote for ?

    .

    Ironically enough I'd imagine most non-Roma east europeans would vote Ukip (if you excluded immigration).
    EU citizens have the vote in the European elections. So this isn't a theoretical question.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Mr. Putney, sounds like a pretty good bet.

    I do wonder if the Conservatives might do better than expected. I predicted them to come third, but if UKIP is damaged by recent events the blues may be bolstered.
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    Sean_F said:

    I see the Roman Catholic Church is opposed to UKIP:-....I'll look forward to what Life in a Market Town has to say about this.

    At least the bishops are only advising their flock how to vote on this occasion. It would be within their pretended right to excommunicate any member of the faithful who voted the wrong way. Not that we should be at all surprised. In Testem Benevolentiae of 1899, Leo XIII claimed 'those opinions that, taken as a whole, some designate as "Americanism" cannot have our approval'. The papist bishops should heed Christ's declaration to Pontius Pilate that 'my kingdom is not of this world', rather than interfering in British elections.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Ukip's multicultural carnival descends into anarchy as angry Romanians arrive with banners. The Ukip steel band has stopped playing #Croydon

    The live tweeting of this has been hilarious, UKIP are coming across as shambolic.

    Consistently anti-UKIP PB poster views tweets from consistently anti-UKIP tweeters as showing UKIP are shambolic. Stop the press.

    For goodness sake, this is Twitter. It's users are mainly the mentally deficient.
    This is what I love about the Kippers.

    Dave and chumoracy look down on and denigrate ordinary people etc is the charge against Dave, yet Kippers think it is ok accuse some people of this Great country of being mentally deficient because they don't like UKIP.

    This in no way confirms the stereotype that UKIP are a bunch of angry men.
    No, you misunderstand me. My argument is that users of Twitter tend to be mentally deficient. Whether they support UKIP or not is irrelevant to that point.

    Here is the feed for the top "trend" right now:

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/WMAOneDirection?src=tren

    Seriously, just read those tweets and try to claim they are people of average intelligence or above.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    Charles said:


    They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.

    Speaking as the most Europhiliac, I don't think anyone's ever managed to come up with a meaningful explanation of what a "demos" is supposed to mean in this context, certainly not such that the UK has been a single one for a long time, but the EU isn't one now.

    Basically I think what we're seeing is nationalist people, fond of a particular nation, trying to pretend that they're concerned with democracy instead of nationalism, hence the appeal to incoherent pop sociology.
    It all depends on how you're meaning nationalism. I think it is commonly understood to mean an extreme form of patriotism that emphasises superiority of other nations, but I'm guessing you don't mean that. I think you just mean people that are patriotic in the broader sense, and believe their nation should govern itself. You are correct in that, but I don't feel that means they're "pretending" to be concerned with democracy. I think history has shown that democracy works best when it's one group that is involved. When you have multiple groups, like in Nigeria, or Belgium, or Bosnia, it quickly ends up devolving into a massive spat of mutual resentment. When it tends to be one group, like in Botswana, or Sweden, or Ireland (outside the North), it tends to work. The case of Scotland seems to be somewhere in the middle.
    What I reckon you're doing there is you're working backwards: Start with the countries that haven't been having a serious civil war or ethnicly-disfunctional government recently, and define those as "one group". It's not obvious to me that Welsh speakers of 50 years ago who didn't speak English were part of the same group as English speakers in London, in a way that Flemish-speaking and French-speaking people in Belgium weren't in the same group as each other.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    PfP - The tricast looks good though doesn't it? I've not bet yet.
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Several events marked the transition from Republic to Empire, including Julius Caesar's appointment as perpetual dictator (44 BC); the Battle of Actium (31 BC); and the granting of the honorific Augustus to Octavian by the Roman Senate (27 BC).

    I think the learned editors at Wikipedia are construing empire and republic not as they were used by contemporaries, but according to more modern definitions. There was no incompatibility between monarchy, republic and empire; the lexical opposite of republic being tyranny, not empire or monarchy. Thus Seneca's De Clementia, addressed to Nero(!), argues that the prince is the soul of the res publica. The best places to start on pre-seventeenth century "republicanism" are:
    (1) M.S. Kempshall, ‘De Re Publica I.39 in Medieval and Renaissance Political Thought’, in J.G.F. Powell & J.A. North (eds), Cicero’s Republic, (London, 2001).
    (2) J. Hankins, 'Exclusivist Republicanism and the Non-Monarchical Republic', Political Theory, 38(4), (2010), pp. 458-482.
    The Roman concept of Republican was specifically anti-monarchical.
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    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    I was quite fascinated by the Wales polling figures out yesterday, particularly the apparent correlation between the 4% that Labour has lost in the Euros, yet gain that same figures when it comes to the GE. I think it may be that national UK poll figures may not settle down until well after the Euros.
    Certainly the Labour groundwork in my part of the world has been better organised than for a long time, which ties in with the national 135k voter contacts last Saturday.
    In Wales, I expect Labour to do well and perhaps gain a seat or two, with Libs and Plaid having a poor election. UKIP will do well, but at the expense of who?
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    SeanT said:

    An excellent piece from Marcus Roberts, which deserved far more comment and appreciation than it has so far received.
    That's hardly surprising however, PB.com barely qualifies any longer as a betting site as the content relating to such matters is minimal and sadly most of the best tipsters/punters have long since departed this place.

    Bet on Camden house prices going up.

    We're getting our first Waitrose!

    http://www.camdennewjournal.com/news/2014/jan/put-papaya-down-orlando-waitrose-coming-camden-town

    It opens at the end of May. I am going to be the first in the queue to buy artisanal sourdough and Vietnamese chocolate.
    It didn't take long to whisk you home from Oz or are you on a stopover?

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:


    They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.

    Speaking as the most Europhiliac, I don't think anyone's ever managed to come up with a meaningful explanation of what a "demos" is supposed to mean in this context, certainly not such that the UK has been a single one for a long time, but the EU isn't one now.

    Basically I think what we're seeing is nationalist people, fond of a particular nation, trying to pretend that they're concerned with democracy instead of nationalism, hence the appeal to incoherent pop sociology.
    Well, it's defined as a single political unit - I think you could reasonably argue that it is the largest political unit that people identify with as their primary source of identity.

    So while people may identify as, for instance, Londoners, English, British and European, I think if you asked most people in a forced choice the majority*, would put "British" (rather than as European) as their primary identification. Clearly there is scope for disagreement - such as in Scotland - which is why the Demos can change over time.

    * of course you, as an advocate of an independent London, are in a class all of your own ;-)
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited May 2014
    valleyboy said:

    I was quite fascinated by the Wales polling figures out yesterday, particularly the apparent correlation between the 4% that Labour has lost in the Euros, yet gain that same figures when it comes to the GE. I think it may be that national UK poll figures may not settle down until well after the Euros.
    Certainly the Labour groundwork in my part of the world has been better organised than for a long time, which ties in with the national 135k voter contacts last Saturday.
    In Wales, I expect Labour to do well and perhaps gain a seat or two, with Libs and Plaid having a poor election. UKIP will do well, but at the expense of who?

    I've got a thread in the pipeline on that. Putting the graphs together now.

    But I have Labour down on every type of election compared to the February one?
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    antifrank said:

    MrJones said:

    surbiton said:

    Does anyone have any ides who most of the East Europeans in the UK would vote for ?

    .

    Ironically enough I'd imagine most non-Roma east europeans would vote Ukip (if you excluded immigration).
    EU citizens have the vote in the European elections. So this isn't a theoretical question.
    It's not a theoretical answer. They'd be conflicted.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:


    They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.

    Speaking as the most Europhiliac, I don't think anyone's ever managed to come up with a meaningful explanation of what a "demos" is supposed to mean in this context, certainly not such that the UK has been a single one for a long time, but the EU isn't one now.

    Basically I think what we're seeing is nationalist people, fond of a particular nation, trying to pretend that they're concerned with democracy instead of nationalism, hence the appeal to incoherent pop sociology.
    It all depends on how you're meaning nationalism. I think it is commonly understood to mean an extreme form of patriotism that emphasises superiority of other nations, but I'm guessing you don't mean that. I think you just mean people that are patriotic in the broader sense, and believe their nation should govern itself. You are correct in that, but I don't feel that means they're "pretending" to be concerned with democracy. I think history has shown that democracy works best when it's one group that is involved. When you have multiple groups, like in Nigeria, or Belgium, or Bosnia, it quickly ends up devolving into a massive spat of mutual resentment. When it tends to be one group, like in Botswana, or Sweden, or Ireland (outside the North), it tends to work. The case of Scotland seems to be somewhere in the middle.
    What I reckon you're doing there is you're working backwards: Start with the countries that haven't been having a serious civil war or ethnicly-disfunctional government recently, and define those as "one group". It's not obvious to me that Welsh speakers of 50 years ago who didn't speak English were part of the same group as English speakers in London, in a way that Flemish-speaking and French-speaking people in Belgium weren't in the same group as each other.
    To make that argument you've had to cite an example I didn't use. You clearly can't do the same for Botswanans, Swedes and the Irish versus Nigerians, Belgians and Bosnians. It has been evident all along.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I've been out on a client meeting today with 2 hours drive each way - on way home Jon Pienaar came on as he'd spent the day with Ed M and reported how many people liked Ed when they met him, warmed to him in person and whilst some said he wasn't Prime Ministerial, that didn't mean he wouldn't be Prime Minister.... he then interviewed 3 people who'd listened to Ed including one bloke who was so excited what Ed had said, he'd written down his concluding sentence and which he then read out to us.

    Jon appars to have utterly missed Ed's excellent interviews that I'm seeing reported on Guido and the Speccie...

    Is he taking dictation from Moscow again?
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,022
    SeanT said:

    An excellent piece from Marcus Roberts, which deserved far more comment and appreciation than it has so far received.
    That's hardly surprising however, PB.com barely qualifies any longer as a betting site as the content relating to such matters is minimal and sadly most of the best tipsters/punters have long since departed this place.

    Bet on Camden house prices going up.

    We're getting our first Waitrose!

    http://www.camdennewjournal.com/news/2014/jan/put-papaya-down-orlando-waitrose-coming-camden-town

    It opens at the end of May. I am going to be the first in the queue to buy artisanal sourdough and Vietnamese chocolate.
    Did you know the first ever Waitrose was located on Acton High Street? Strangely, they have long since moved out of the area.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Avoided the Coup then Sean? Lol
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,841
    In the last 48hrs I find myself changing my mind yet again and leaning towards UKIP. I just don't like this de-facto coordinated mass assault on them over the last fortnight by all other parties and virtually all the mainstream press. Whatever my (many) reservations, I think it'd be healthy for democracy to blow a giant hole in this established complacency once and for all: you can't provoke and bully those with a legitimate concerns to all be extremists.

    I think Farage fell into a trap with the Romanians (and he should now stop digging) The posters were a bad idea and started it all off. Also UKIP has plenty of unpleasant people in it. But it is not a racist party and I really resent the attempts to paint it as such. I want them to win so people learn that this attempt (and all future attempts) are ineffective and will fail.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:


    They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.

    Speaking as the most Europhiliac, I don't think anyone's ever managed to come up with a meaningful explanation of what a "demos" is supposed to mean in this context, certainly not such that the UK has been a single one for a long time, but the EU isn't one now.

    Basically I think what we're seeing is nationalist people, fond of a particular nation, trying to pretend that they're concerned with democracy instead of nationalism, hence the appeal to incoherent pop sociology.
    It all depends on how you're meaning nationalism. I think it is commonly understood to mean an extreme form of patriotism that emphasises superiority of other nations, but I'm guessing you don't mean that. I think you just mean people that are patriotic in the broader sense, and believe their nation should govern itself. You are correct in that, but I don't feel that means they're "pretending" to be concerned with democracy. I think history has shown that democracy works best when it's one group that is involved. When you have multiple groups, like in Nigeria, or Belgium, or Bosnia, it quickly ends up devolving into a massive spat of mutual resentment. When it tends to be one group, like in Botswana, or Sweden, or Ireland (outside the North), it tends to work. The case of Scotland seems to be somewhere in the middle.
    What I reckon you're doing there is you're working backwards: Start with the countries that haven't been having a serious civil war or ethnicly-disfunctional government recently, and define those as "one group". It's not obvious to me that Welsh speakers of 50 years ago who didn't speak English were part of the same group as English speakers in London, in a way that Flemish-speaking and French-speaking people in Belgium weren't in the same group as each other.
    To make that argument you've had to cite an example I didn't use.
    I thought you were citing the UK as a single-demos case - are Welsh speakers a different demos then?
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Media-ocracy: fake democracy where a handful of unelected people in the media decide what opinions you're allowed to choose from with the number of options on the list gradually narrowing over time to one.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited May 2014
    Charles said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Except where they write this: "A former gymnast, Logan now presents sports coverage for the BBC"

    Admittedly it was directly under a rather fetching photograph of the said Ms Logan, so I can forgive you for being distracted
    Must have overlooked the faint light grey smaller font underneath the photograph of the delightful Mrs Logan. Some sort of distraction technique. It might be hard to discover that she had been a TV presenter employed by The BBC in the rest of that report.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,040
    Don't be silly, Dr. Spyn. Next you'll accuse the BBC of not having any reference whatsoever on its politics page to Miliband's interview car crash.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,841
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Ukip's multicultural carnival descends into anarchy as angry Romanians arrive with banners. The Ukip steel band has stopped playing #Croydon

    The live tweeting of this has been hilarious, UKIP are coming across as shambolic.

    Consistently anti-UKIP PB poster views tweets from consistently anti-UKIP tweeters as showing UKIP are shambolic. Stop the press.

    For goodness sake, this is Twitter. It's users are mainly the mentally deficient.
    This is what I love about the Kippers.

    Dave and chumoracy look down on and denigrate ordinary people etc is the charge against Dave, yet Kippers think it is ok accuse some people of this Great country of being mentally deficient because they don't like UKIP.

    This in no way confirms the stereotype that UKIP are a bunch of angry men.
    No, you misunderstand me. My argument is that users of Twitter tend to be mentally deficient. Whether they support UKIP or not is irrelevant to that point.

    Here is the feed for the top "trend" right now:

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/WMAOneDirection?src=tren

    Seriously, just read those tweets and try to claim they are people of average intelligence or above.
    People use twitter to emote how they feel, not articulate what they think.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    Charles said:

    Charles said:


    They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.

    Speaking as the most Europhiliac, I don't think anyone's ever managed to come up with a meaningful explanation of what a "demos" is supposed to mean in this context, certainly not such that the UK has been a single one for a long time, but the EU isn't one now.

    Basically I think what we're seeing is nationalist people, fond of a particular nation, trying to pretend that they're concerned with democracy instead of nationalism, hence the appeal to incoherent pop sociology.
    Well, it's defined as a single political unit - I think you could reasonably argue that it is the largest political unit that people identify with as their primary source of identity.

    So while people may identify as, for instance, Londoners, English, British and European, I think if you asked most people in a forced choice the majority*, would put "British" (rather than as European) as their primary identification. Clearly there is scope for disagreement - such as in Scotland - which is why the Demos can change over time.

    * of course you, as an advocate of an independent London, are in a class all of your own ;-)
    A single political unit or the largest political unit people identify with as their primary source of identity? These are very different things. The first definition makes the demos of British people the EU. The second definition means Scotland isn't part of the same demos as the rest of the UK, and probably never has been. That's not "scope for disagreement", it's the overwhelming evidence of the polling.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    MrJones said:

    Media-ocracy: fake democracy where a handful of unelected people in the media decide what opinions you're allowed to choose from with the number of options on the list gradually narrowing over time to one.

    Come on Mr Jones, surely you could work in some sort of pun with mediocrity into that definition.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060

    Don't be silly, Dr. Spyn. Next you'll accuse the BBC of not having any reference whatsoever on its politics page to Miliband's interview car crash.

    Which was on BBC Radio......
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    To be fair to Gabby at least her Saturday night programme was good. Oh wait, that was Balding. I'm buying BL selling GT!!!!
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    @Morris_Dancer there is an unfattering shot of Cameron auditioning for Westminster Village People - this time as a construction worker.

    However the Politics web page doesn't have the link to Miliband's car crash interview. Perhaps the BBC Wiltshire page has more visitors. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27483541
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    inb4 Gf dumps me.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    corporeal said:

    MrJones said:

    Media-ocracy: fake democracy where a handful of unelected people in the media decide what opinions you're allowed to choose from with the number of options on the list gradually narrowing over time to one.

    Come on Mr Jones, surely you could work in some sort of pun with mediocrity into that definition.

    Media-ocracy where members of the media are exempt from taxes on earnings which they expect the rest of us to pay.
This discussion has been closed.