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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Cost of Living crisis is back prices rising faster than wages again
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @WikiGuido: A badly briefed Ed Miliband tries to bluff his way through an interview. It goes disastrously: http://t.co/rfoF59PdZx

    Very funny. Another indicator of ineptness in the LAB campaign team.

    "(Swindon) Presenter: You do know who Jim Grant is Mr Miliband?
    EM: You will enlighten me I am sure.
    Presenter: Swindon Labour leader.
    EM: Yeah I think he is doing a good job.
    Presenter: Will he feel like you support him enough if you don’t even know his name?"
    " You will enlighten me I am sure ".
    Patronizing little git.

    Ed considers himself to be the intellectual superior of his interviewer.

    Only temporarily. Listen to the recording on Guido, particularly the last 20 seconds.

    EM: No, I know that Jim is doing a good job for Swindon and I think he is doing a good job as leader of the council.
    Presenter: But he is not leader of the council is he Mr Miliband? It’s a Conservative led council.
    EM: I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council. I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council.
    Presenter: So let’s be clear. Who runs Swindon council?
    EM: It’s a Conservative controlled council.


    All intellectual superiority has evaporated and the last line is delivered like a contrite schoolboy. Arf!
    I actually feel a little sorry for EdM.

    He was clearly inadequately briefed - that's a fairly obvious factoid that should be on the 1 pager before you go into the radio interview.

    He shouldn't be expected to know that off the top of his head though
    Any leader of political party giving local radio/tv/press interviews should expect some quizzing regarding the local party. Not knowing that the council isn't Labour run and not knowing the name of the local party leader are fairly major gaps in the briefing notes wouldn't you say?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Scott_P said:

    Socrates said:

    UKIP were trying to get a message across to ethnic minority voters

    And the ethnic minorities they invited left in disgust. On TV.

    Awesome.
    Disgust at the idiot protesters...

    Look, clearly we have divergent views on this. I believe in freedom of speech and civil debate and think the people shutting that down will look bad. You believe that the people trying to have a discussion are the ones that look bad.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Sorry to say but this is biased lefty grasping at straws! No doubt it is a 3 horse race but the blues are also on the streets across the country and Cameron is getitng more media exposure than Miliband.

    That said, Labour could scrape it. Howevre, Tories have won every Euro to date I believe (unless you know different) and I think they will win this one. UKIP to come third! 2 points in it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    taffys said:

    Add in SLAB's GOTV woes, and LAB could seriously underperform their respectable polling numbers.

    100% agree. I wonder if the recent hoo-haa over racism has led to some kipper respondents going 'shy', which could also account for them seeming to lose momentum.

    One wonders also about the impact of the Better Together Campaign, given its members. If it's Scotland, it is BAAAAAD to be out of the EU (cue malicious giggles about student fees), we have been told ad nauseam. And also that the Tories and LDs will Make Sure Of It by having Quiet Words with their chums in the EU.

    But suddenly if it's the UK, it is GOOOOD to be out of the EU.

    Okay, Labour is consistent in its position - as well as the few remaining LDs - but when it comes to Scottish politics' key current issue, they are in bed with the Tories, some of whom most certainly are not consistent, while the Kippers are banging on the door of the No Campaign office to be let in.

    So, if I were a previous Labour or LD voter and had taken the trouble to turn out, I might think twice about voting for a Unionist party in the Euro elections.
    The Tories are completely consistent:

    They believe that the appropriate Demos is the UK. That is consistent with being out of the EU but with Scotland being in the UK. Even the most Europhilic don't view Europe as a single Demos.
    I agree with you to a large extent Charles but that is what the EU are trying to change. Hence the move to pan-National parties and also the reason for delaying results from early voting countries until after everyone has finished voting. The EU very much wants us to consider the institution as a single Demos as do some of the more extremist British Europhile MEPs.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Socrates said:


    Disgust at the idiot protesters...

    No. Disgust at UKIP.

    @ZoraSuleman: A steel band booked to play at a UKIP rally in Croydon South London left when they found out the party was behind the event.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Details for the Opinium/Daily Mail EU Parliament poll.

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/european-parliament-polling-13th-may

    Field work was 13-16 May.

    They add in details of 2009 EU past vote.

    UKIP has 52% of the "Don't remember" 43% of the 'did not vote'. They also seem to do very will with Plaid voters 24% of 2009 Plaid. (That tallies with the various Wales Political Barometer polls)

    p.4 of the pdf.
    http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/eu_130514.pdf
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2014
    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @WikiGuido: A badly briefed Ed Miliband tries to bluff his way through an interview. It goes disastrously: http://t.co/rfoF59PdZx

    Very funny. Another indicator of ineptness in the LAB campaign team.

    "(Swindon) Presenter: You do know who Jim Grant is Mr Miliband?
    EM: You will enlighten me I am sure.
    Presenter: Swindon Labour leader.
    EM: Yeah I think he is doing a good job.
    Presenter: Will he feel like you support him enough if you don’t even know his name?"
    " You will enlighten me I am sure ".
    Patronizing little git.

    Ed considers himself to be the intellectual superior of his interviewer.

    Only temporarily. Listen to the recording on Guido, particularly the last 20 seconds.

    EM: No, I know that Jim is doing a good job for Swindon and I think he is doing a good job as leader of the council.
    Presenter: But he is not leader of the council is he Mr Miliband? It’s a Conservative led council.
    EM: I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council. I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council.
    Presenter: So let’s be clear. Who runs Swindon council?
    EM: It’s a Conservative controlled council.


    All intellectual superiority has evaporated and the last line is delivered like a contrite schoolboy. Arf!
    I actually feel a little sorry for EdM.

    He was clearly inadequately briefed - that's a fairly obvious factoid that should be on the 1 pager before you go into the radio interview.

    He shouldn't be expected to know that off the top of his head though
    'Inadequately briefed'

    Milliband's a professional politician and leader of a political party. He should have asked his aides who the local Labour big wigs and councillors were, if the information was not forthcoming. To do otherwise was sloppy, some might say lazy.

    This incident, and the failure to know the average cost of a weekly shop, particularly when one is campaigning to grab the votes of the 'squeezed middle' are extremely telling.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Scott_P said:

    Socrates said:


    Disgust at the idiot protesters...

    No. Disgust at UKIP.

    @ZoraSuleman: A steel band booked to play at a UKIP rally in Croydon South London left when they found out the party was behind the event.
    The steel band were the people UKIP put on the carnival for, were they? For goodness sake, think things through...
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @WikiGuido: A badly briefed Ed Miliband tries to bluff his way through an interview. It goes disastrously: http://t.co/rfoF59PdZx

    Very funny. Another indicator of ineptness in the LAB campaign team.

    "(Swindon) Presenter: You do know who Jim Grant is Mr Miliband?
    EM: You will enlighten me I am sure.
    Presenter: Swindon Labour leader.
    EM: Yeah I think he is doing a good job.
    Presenter: Will he feel like you support him enough if you don’t even know his name?"
    " You will enlighten me I am sure ".
    Patronizing little git.

    Ed considers himself to be the intellectual superior of his interviewer.

    Only temporarily. Listen to the recording on Guido, particularly the last 20 seconds.

    EM: No, I know that Jim is doing a good job for Swindon and I think he is doing a good job as leader of the council.
    Presenter: But he is not leader of the council is he Mr Miliband? It’s a Conservative led council.
    EM: I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council. I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council.
    Presenter: So let’s be clear. Who runs Swindon council?
    EM: It’s a Conservative controlled council.


    All intellectual superiority has evaporated and the last line is delivered like a contrite schoolboy. Arf!
    I actually feel a little sorry for EdM.

    He was clearly inadequately briefed - that's a fairly obvious factoid that should be on the 1 pager before you go into the radio interview.

    He shouldn't be expected to know that off the top of his head though
    'Inadequately briefed'

    Milliband's a professional politician and leader of a political party. He should have asked his aides who the local Labour big wigs and councillors were, if the information was not forthcoming. To do otherwise was sloppy, some might say lazy.
    I think EdM was intellectually overconfident on this occasion.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @WikiGuido: A badly briefed Ed Miliband tries to bluff his way through an interview. It goes disastrously: http://t.co/rfoF59PdZx

    Very funny. Another indicator of ineptness in the LAB campaign team.

    "(Swindon) Presenter: You do know who Jim Grant is Mr Miliband?
    EM: You will enlighten me I am sure.
    Presenter: Swindon Labour leader.
    EM: Yeah I think he is doing a good job.
    Presenter: Will he feel like you support him enough if you don’t even know his name?"
    " You will enlighten me I am sure ".
    Patronizing little git.

    Ed considers himself to be the intellectual superior of his interviewer.

    Only temporarily. Listen to the recording on Guido, particularly the last 20 seconds.

    EM: No, I know that Jim is doing a good job for Swindon and I think he is doing a good job as leader of the council.
    Presenter: But he is not leader of the council is he Mr Miliband? It’s a Conservative led council.
    EM: I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council. I think he is doing a good job for Labour on the council.
    Presenter: So let’s be clear. Who runs Swindon council?
    EM: It’s a Conservative controlled council.


    All intellectual superiority has evaporated and the last line is delivered like a contrite schoolboy. Arf!
    I actually feel a little sorry for EdM.

    He was clearly inadequately briefed - that's a fairly obvious factoid that should be on the 1 pager before you go into the radio interview.

    He shouldn't be expected to know that off the top of his head though
    'Inadequately briefed'

    Milliband's a professional politician and leader of a political party. He should have asked his aides who the local Labour big wigs and councillors were, if the information was not forthcoming. To do otherwise was sloppy, some might say lazy.

    This incident, and the failure to know the average cost of a weekly shop, particularly when one is campaigning to grab the votes of the 'squeezed middle' are extremely telling.
    He was also there specifically to campaign for the council, not just as part of a tour of the regions. Doubly sloppy.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @bigjohnowls

    Not if you are getting 10% and above yearly increases, and the proportion of that needing to be spent on necessities is a small proportion of your income.
    I wonder who has been getting these increases year on year, despite warnings to the country that we should "tighten our belts"?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Socrates said:

    Scott_P said:

    Socrates said:

    UKIP were trying to get a message across to ethnic minority voters

    And the ethnic minorities they invited left in disgust. On TV.

    Awesome.
    Disgust at the idiot protesters...

    Look, clearly we have divergent views on this. I believe in freedom of speech and civil debate and think the people shutting that down will look bad. You believe that the people trying to have a discussion are the ones that look bad.
    He spins hard for CCHQ. Give him a break.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TOPPING said:


    Does the theory always work in such simple, causal terms? Perhaps not. Has study after study confirmed the theory, however? Yep.

    Study after study have confirmed that increases in income to the wealthy help those on low incomes? Please list three.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Who on earth billed this as the UKIP ‘Carnival of Colour’ - No music, no food, no drink no dancing and no Farage - just placards, protests & journalists.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Socrates said:

    Scott_P said:

    Socrates said:


    Disgust at the idiot protesters...

    No. Disgust at UKIP.

    @ZoraSuleman: A steel band booked to play at a UKIP rally in Croydon South London left when they found out the party was behind the event.
    The steel band were the people UKIP put on the carnival for, were they? For goodness sake, think things through...
    Scott sounds like Scargill lauding flying pickets and demonising scabs. What's wrong with him?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Who on earth billed this as the UKIP ‘Carnival of Colour’ - No music, no food, no drink no dancing and no Farage - just placards, protests & journalists.

    Given a week's notice, a limited budget, and a history of middling organisational skills (I'm being generous), it's a minor miracle anything happened at all.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Socrates said:

    Scott_P said:

    Socrates said:

    UKIP were trying to get a message across to ethnic minority voters

    And the ethnic minorities they invited left in disgust. On TV.

    Awesome.
    Disgust at the idiot protesters...

    Look, clearly we have divergent views on this. I believe in freedom of speech and civil debate and think the people shutting that down will look bad. You believe that the people trying to have a discussion are the ones that look bad.
    I don't think that the "carnival" was much about civil debate. It was merely an attempt to get some positive touchy-feely time on TV for UKIP. That it failed will no doubt amuse political hacks, but have little bearing on the millions who will vote for UKIP on Thursday.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2014

    Socrates said:

    Scott_P said:

    Socrates said:


    Disgust at the idiot protesters...

    No. Disgust at UKIP.

    @ZoraSuleman: A steel band booked to play at a UKIP rally in Croydon South London left when they found out the party was behind the event.
    The steel band were the people UKIP put on the carnival for, were they? For goodness sake, think things through...
    Scott sounds like Scargill lauding flying pickets and demonising scabs. What's wrong with him?
    To be fair, I took Scott's point as being: It was a stupid thing for UKIP to attempt in the first place, rather than lauding the protesters.

    In any case, that's my view. There are simply too many factions (from the radical to the more mundane) which now have UKIP in their crosshairs. Any freely accessible UKIP event will be a target. Holding a street carnival in a left-leaning city with a huge number of EU immigrants and a panoply of left-wing lobby organisations was doomed from conception.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:


    The steel band were the people UKIP put on the carnival for, were they? For goodness sake, think things through...

    I'll type slowly...

    UKIP wanted to pretend they are friendly to ethnic minorities.

    They hired some ethnic minorities to play, to demonstrate to other ethnic minorities they liked them

    When the ethnic minorities they hired found out they had been hired by UKIP, they left in disgust because the ethnic minority members of the band think UKIP are racist.

    No protesters, ethnic minorities or otherwise, were involved in the steel band leaving.

    Watch the news if reading the tweets is too hard for you.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Roberts for his piece. Entirely possible to see the reds topping the poll. I'd still favour UKIP to do so, although (to get in an Old Who reference) it sounds like a Carnival of the Monsters happened.

    Hmm. I'll see the footage on the news and see what I think. Doesn't sound good.

    The steel band issue is weird, though. UKIP should've been up front who was hiring them. If they were, the band was pulling a stunt, if not, UKIP's organisers were incompetent.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I'm having a right laugh at the Tories going all 'kumbaya'.

    Is anyone running a book to see if they can keep it going until 10 PM on Thursday night?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    TOPPING said:


    Does the theory always work in such simple, causal terms? Perhaps not. Has study after study confirmed the theory, however? Yep.

    Study after study have confirmed that increases in income to the wealthy help those on low incomes? Please list three.

    I'm not your google bitch sunshine.

    Study after study confirms that there is a net benefit to the host nation if you introduce migration.

    I also said that benefit accrues to capital owners (or "the wealthy" as you left-leaning Kippers might refer to them, or perhaps you prefer "the military-industrial complex" to describe such people) which in turn results in increased investment and in turn job creation.

    And edit: that indigenous lower paid workers lose out.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    JBriskin said:

    I look forward to it Corporeal :)

    It's had the TSE stamp of semi-approval (i.e. he liked it but I wouldn't let him put any 80s music references in).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Corporeal, how could you resist the Temptation?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Who on earth billed this as the UKIP ‘Carnival of Colour’ - No music, no food, no drink no dancing and no Farage - just placards, protests & journalists.

    To be fair the music buggered off (allegedly) which presumably put paid to the dancing.

    So car crashes for ed and nige and a perfect performance by dave on radio 4 this morning. The PB tory can justifiably survey the events of the day with a massive calm.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Results chart now has counts on it. Just over 200 entries at the moment.

    https://user.nojam.com/pid/50/live/averagebygeparty.php
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014
    The only thing I could hope for more would be a Tim M guest slot for balance Corporeal :)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Smarmeron said:

    @bigjohnowls

    Not if you are getting 10% and above yearly increases, and the proportion of that needing to be spent on necessities is a small proportion of your income.
    I wonder who has been getting these increases year on year, despite warnings to the country that we should "tighten our belts"?

    The last two Labour leaflets through our door made that point very clearly; if the cost of living rises 3% pa and wages rise 1% then the net result is -2% in available household cash.

    What that had to do with the European elections I’m not sure.,
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    MD - I didn't know that The Who recorded a track called Carnival of the Monsters. Which album does it feature on?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    I'm having a right laugh at the Tories going all 'kumbaya'.

    Is anyone running a book to see if they can keep it going until 10 PM on Thursday night?

    The Conservative/UKIP battle seems like a rerun of Ken Livingstone vs Boris Johnson, with similar arguments being made on each side..

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Ishmael_X said:

    Who on earth billed this as the UKIP ‘Carnival of Colour’ - No music, no food, no drink no dancing and no Farage - just placards, protests & journalists.

    To be fair the music buggered off (allegedly) which presumably put paid to the dancing.

    So car crashes for ed and nige and a perfect performance by dave on radio 4 this morning. The PB tory can justifiably survey the events of the day with a massive calm.

    No-one even handing our cans of ale?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    @TOPPING

    " which in turn results in increased investment and in turn job creation"

    That is the theory, however, smart money is invested where the returns are higher.
    Investment in plant, or keep liquidity and use it in other ways?
    The choice for most companies is dictated ROI, and I will leave you to guess what that is at the moment.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Results chart now has counts on it. Just over 200 entries at the moment.

    https://user.nojam.com/pid/50/live/averagebygeparty.php

    Thank you Mark.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    Can't help wondering if these 'Romanians' are false-flagged campaigners of one sort or another.

    Last week Channel 4 did a whole 10 minute report on the "anti-McDonalds Zero Hours Contract" campaign, and admitted that they couldn't find a single McDonalds employee to interview.

    All the people they did interview from "Youth Fight for Jobs" were prominent Socialist Party (3 men and a dog) members.

    Nothing was declared by C4. No idea whether they found out.

    The media will swallow it regardless. Not because of a anti-Ukip campaign but because they are gullible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Rentool, unsure if you're being silly or not.

    By Old Who I meant Doctor Who, prior to its recent ADHD revival. Carnival of the Monsters, I believe, was a Third Doctor serial with the beast of.... Pelagon, or similar.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rowenamason: Ukip Croydon council candidate Winston Mckenzie says Farage sensible for not coming as Croydon is "unsafe" and a "dump"
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    It's not too late for the Times or the Mail to do a feature about Tarquin, the Tory and his Roma boyfriend from Targoviste :)
    Sean_F said:

    I'm having a right laugh at the Tories going all 'kumbaya'.

    Is anyone running a book to see if they can keep it going until 10 PM on Thursday night?

    The Conservative/UKIP battle seems like a rerun of Ken Livingstone vs Boris Johnson, with similar arguments being made on each side..

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Smarmeron said:

    @TOPPING

    " which in turn results in increased investment and in turn job creation"

    That is the theory, however, smart money is invested where the returns are higher.
    Investment in plant, or keep liquidity and use it in other ways?
    The choice for most companies is dictated ROI, and I will leave you to guess what that is at the moment.

    Don't disagree. But in an environment where returns to interest-bearing assets is low, because of course interest rates are low, capital investment is one of the few attractive avenues of investment.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [The choice for most companies is dictated ROI, and I will leave you to guess what that is at the moment.]

    It's not - it's profit maximisation. ROI is what investors look for.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:



    3. Differential turnout is likely to help UKIP more than Labour

    Why? This seems like a really big point.

    I think what Andrew means is that in 2009 Euros the Con vote was inflated because the traditionally Tory county councils were being elected on the same day.Now in 2014 the local elections are in more traditionally Labour urban council areas which,hypothetically,could lead to an increased Labour share.Makes sense?

    But, the Conservatives' vote share in both the County and Euro elections wasn't very impressive, in 2009.

    Relatively unimpressive in the sense the Cons topped the poll,their vote share exceeded the 2nd place party,Ukip,by 11.2%, and a 27.7% vote share,which is unlikely to be matched in
    2014.I agree this is more qualitative than quantitative evidence,hard to prove either way.If we are in for a close result-say between 0 .5-1%-these kind of factors might make all the difference.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    What do you think would happen to a McDonalds employee going on TV and criticising their employment policies?
    MattW said:

    Can't help wondering if these 'Romanians' are false-flagged campaigners of one sort or another.

    Last week Channel 4 did a whole 10 minute report on the "anti-McDonalds Zero Hours Contract" campaign, and admitted that they couldn't find a single McDonalds employee to interview.

    All the people they did interview from "Youth Fight for Jobs" were prominent Socialist Party (3 men and a dog) members.

    Nothing was declared by C4. No idea whether they found out.

    The media will swallow it regardless. Not because of a anti-Ukip campaign but because they are gullible.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Seems like election nonsense & bullshit is in full flow right now.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [What do you think would happen to a McDonalds employee going on TV and criticising their employment policies? ]

    And an ex-employee??
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TOPPING

    I heard a story about a genius who was going to fix that.....But it turned out he was more like Mickey Mouse in the "Sorcerer's Apprentice".
    The "March of the makers" became......
    I won't spoil the film, you may not have seen it yet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    What do you think would happen to a McDonalds employee going on TV and criticising their employment policies?

    MattW said:

    Can't help wondering if these 'Romanians' are false-flagged campaigners of one sort or another.

    Last week Channel 4 did a whole 10 minute report on the "anti-McDonalds Zero Hours Contract" campaign, and admitted that they couldn't find a single McDonalds employee to interview.

    All the people they did interview from "Youth Fight for Jobs" were prominent Socialist Party (3 men and a dog) members.

    Nothing was declared by C4. No idea whether they found out.

    The media will swallow it regardless. Not because of a anti-Ukip campaign but because they are gullible.

    5 minutes of fame ? A Big Brother appearance ? Get to be a talking head on the morning Telly for a bit ? Ed Miliband's poster boy/girl for GE2015 ?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    TOPPING said:


    Does the theory always work in such simple, causal terms? Perhaps not. Has study after study confirmed the theory, however? Yep.

    Study after study have confirmed that increases in income to the wealthy help those on low incomes? Please list three.

    I'm not your google bitch sunshine.

    Study after study confirms that there is a net benefit to the host nation if you introduce migration.

    I also said that benefit accrues to capital owners (or "the wealthy" as you left-leaning Kippers might refer to them, or perhaps you prefer "the military-industrial complex" to describe such people) which in turn results in increased investment and in turn job creation.

    And edit: that indigenous lower paid workers lose out.
    I hadn't realised "the wealthy" was some sort of offensive neologism. There are certainly studies to suggest immigration creates a slight net economic benefit (although there are also plenty that suggest there's no discernible effect), but I've never seen a studying showing the benefit of immigration comes through raising the incomes of "capital owners" and increasing investment.

    I'll tell you what. To avoid you becoming a "Google bitch" form having to back up your own claims, why don't you just cite one study showing this? Seems a fair compromise.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    TOPPING said:


    Does the theory always work in such simple, causal terms? Perhaps not. Has study after study confirmed the theory, however? Yep.

    Study after study have confirmed that increases in income to the wealthy help those on low incomes? Please list three.

    I'm not your google bitch sunshine.

    Study after study confirms that there is a net benefit to the host nation if you introduce migration.

    I also said that benefit accrues to capital owners (or "the wealthy" as you left-leaning Kippers might refer to them, or perhaps you prefer "the military-industrial complex" to describe such people) which in turn results in increased investment and in turn job creation.

    And edit: that indigenous lower paid workers lose out.
    I hadn't realised "the wealthy" was some sort of offensive neologism. There are certainly studies to suggest immigration creates a slight net economic benefit (although there are also plenty that suggest there's no discernible effect), but I've never seen a studying showing the benefit of immigration comes through raising the incomes of "capital owners" and increasing investment.

    I'll tell you what. To avoid you becoming a "Google bitch" form having to back up your own claims, why don't you just cite one study showing this? Seems a fair compromise.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin

    And there are whole wodges of cash sitting in company coffers for exactly what reason?
    Not all companies of course, but a fair old number all the same.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Mr. Corporeal, how could you resist the Temptation?

    PB is committed to balance and impartiality on such matters, TSE fills the quota in his first paragraph.

    Although come to think of it, I can't be sure TSE won't have edited a few references into the piece.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    It's not too late for the Times or the Mail to do a feature about Tarquin, the Tory and his Roma boyfriend from Targoviste :)

    Sean_F said:

    I'm having a right laugh at the Tories going all 'kumbaya'.

    Is anyone running a book to see if they can keep it going until 10 PM on Thursday night?

    The Conservative/UKIP battle seems like a rerun of Ken Livingstone vs Boris Johnson, with similar arguments being made on each side..

    And then the following week running features on Romanian gypsies on benefits, "scroungers" on the dole, and foreign criminals who can't be deported because they own a pet cat.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899

    What do you think would happen to a McDonalds employee going on TV and criticising their employment policies?

    MattW said:

    Can't help wondering if these 'Romanians' are false-flagged campaigners of one sort or another.

    Last week Channel 4 did a whole 10 minute report on the "anti-McDonalds Zero Hours Contract" campaign, and admitted that they couldn't find a single McDonalds employee to interview.

    All the people they did interview from "Youth Fight for Jobs" were prominent Socialist Party (3 men and a dog) members.

    Nothing was declared by C4. No idea whether they found out.

    The media will swallow it regardless. Not because of a anti-Ukip campaign but because they are gullible.

    They found one in the segment about the campaign in the States.

    C4 had lots of options:

    1 - Employee in profile, with actors voice.
    2 - Ex-employee.
    3 - "An employee told us that..".

    They did none of them.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899

    What do you think would happen to a McDonalds employee going on TV and criticising their employment policies?

    MattW said:

    Can't help wondering if these 'Romanians' are false-flagged campaigners of one sort or another.

    Last week Channel 4 did a whole 10 minute report on the "anti-McDonalds Zero Hours Contract" campaign, and admitted that they couldn't find a single McDonalds employee to interview.

    All the people they did interview from "Youth Fight for Jobs" were prominent Socialist Party (3 men and a dog) members.

    Nothing was declared by C4. No idea whether they found out.

    The media will swallow it regardless. Not because of a anti-Ukip campaign but because they are gullible.

    They found one in the segment about the campaign in the States.

    C4 had lots of options:

    1 - Employee in profile, with actors voice.
    2 - Ex-employee.
    3 - "An employee told us that..".

    They did none of them.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron-

    [And there are whole wodges of cash sitting in company coffers for exactly what reason?
    Not all companies of course, but a fair old number all the same.]

    I might be a bit biased and was maybe was a quite poor accounts cashier - but I'd say it's pretty hard for companies to be rolling around in cash. The listed ones have to publish their balance sheet once a year don't they?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Conservative 71 36.9%
    Green 7 3.6%
    Labour 45 23.4%
    Liberal Democrat 39 18.7%
    Other 13
    UKIP 17 8.9%
    OVERALL 209

    CON 36.97% 356
    LAB 29.66% 211
    LIB 23.56% 54

    National Prediction: CON majority 62
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Good point about freedom of speech not being for the "little people".
    MattW said:

    What do you think would happen to a McDonalds employee going on TV and criticising their employment policies?

    MattW said:

    Can't help wondering if these 'Romanians' are false-flagged campaigners of one sort or another.

    Last week Channel 4 did a whole 10 minute report on the "anti-McDonalds Zero Hours Contract" campaign, and admitted that they couldn't find a single McDonalds employee to interview.

    All the people they did interview from "Youth Fight for Jobs" were prominent Socialist Party (3 men and a dog) members.

    Nothing was declared by C4. No idea whether they found out.

    The media will swallow it regardless. Not because of a anti-Ukip campaign but because they are gullible.

    They found one in the segment about the campaign in the States.

    C4 had lots of options:

    1 - Employee in profile, with actors voice.
    2 - Ex-employee.
    3 - "An employee told us that..".

    They did none of them.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Ukip Croydon council candidate Winston Mckenzie says Farage sensible for not coming as Croydon is "unsafe" and a "dump"

    That is funny. You have to say that Hitchens's characterisation of UKIP as 'Dad's army' does have a ring of truth about it.

    But as he pointed out Mainwaring and co had strengths, as well as weaknesses.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sean_F
    Ahh, the cat thing.
    It seems that despite those bastions of truth being dilligent, they believed what Therresa had told them without checking.
    Never let facts get in the way of a good soundbite or headline.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Winston Truman McKenzie is a British politician and former boxer, notable for having joined every major political party and having stood as an independent or minor party candidate on numerous occasions without success.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Roberts for his piece. Entirely possible to see the reds topping the poll. I'd still favour UKIP to do so, although (to get in an Old Who reference) it sounds like a Carnival of the Monsters happened.

    Hmm. I'll see the footage on the news and see what I think. Doesn't sound good.

    The steel band issue is weird, though. UKIP should've been up front who was hiring them. If they were, the band was pulling a stunt, if not, UKIP's organisers were incompetent.

    I'd imagine that UKIP went through an agency.

    But the band behaved inappropriately. If they committed to a booking they should have delivered. Sing "we will not be moved" or something as their encore, but at least perform
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Fun and games in Croydon.

    Michael Deacon ✔ @MichaelPDeacon
    Follow
    No sign so far of Godfrey Bloom in a grass skirt handing out Um Bongo, but I'll let you know if that changes #ukipcarnival
    3:03 PM - 20 May 2014
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    >

    The last two Labour leaflets through our door made that point very clearly; if the cost of living rises 3% pa and wages rise 1% then the net result is -2% in available household cash.

    What that had to do with the European elections I’m not sure.,

    You do realise that calculation is wrong, don't you?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sounds as if Ed M has had another great day on the radio. How does he hope to win over voters when his present media team foul up once again. Pity it didn't get a bigger audience. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/477038/LISTEN-Labour-leader-Ed-Miliband-suffers-ANOTHER-interview-disaster-on-live-radio

    Ed =Gerald Ratner.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    taffys said:

    Hitchens's characterisation of UKIP as 'Dad's army' does have a ring of truth about it.

    "Don't tell the band the name of the party that hired them is UKIP..."
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Winston Truman McKenzie is a British politician and former boxer, notable for having joined every major political party and having stood as an independent or minor party candidate on numerous occasions without success.

    Surely that makes him persistent, but not a 'British Politician' ; )

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    @JBriskin
    An uncle of mine was an accountant for a large company. Apparently, at least once a year the board were surprised not only to hear the names of different companies, but were amazed to learn that they owned them.
    Lovely guy, unfortunately passed on now... His widow and daughter were still working out parts of his estate two years later.
    RIP Allen, I hope heaven has a few rag top Triumph Spitfires for you to play with.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MattW said:



    The media will swallow it regardless. Not because of a anti-Ukip campaign but because they are gullible.

    I think you're being unfair.

    Media producers are young and under-pressure to deliver to a deadline.

    If someone provides them with a plausible story nicely wrapped up they will jump at it.

    It's laziness, not gullibility that's to blame :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Socrates said:

    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    TOPPING said:


    Does the theory always work in such simple, causal terms? Perhaps not. Has study after study confirmed the theory, however? Yep.

    Study after study have confirmed that increases in income to the wealthy help those on low incomes? Please list three.

    I'm not your google bitch sunshine.

    Study after study confirms that there is a net benefit to the host nation if you introduce migration.

    I also said that benefit accrues to capital owners (or "the wealthy" as you left-leaning Kippers might refer to them, or perhaps you prefer "the military-industrial complex" to describe such people) which in turn results in increased investment and in turn job creation.

    And edit: that indigenous lower paid workers lose out.
    I hadn't realised "the wealthy" was some sort of offensive neologism. There are certainly studies to suggest immigration creates a slight net economic benefit (although there are also plenty that suggest there's no discernible effect), but I've never seen a studying showing the benefit of immigration comes through raising the incomes of "capital owners" and increasing investment.

    I'll tell you what. To avoid you becoming a "Google bitch" form having to back up your own claims, why don't you just cite one study showing this? Seems a fair compromise.
    woof

    nber.org/papers/w4955.pdf?new_window=1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Corporeal, Tell Me When* it's due up.

    *Yes, yes, that was technically the 90s, but it had an 80s flavour.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    dr_spyn said:

    Sounds as if Ed M has had another great day on the radio. How does he hope to win over voters when his present media team foul up once again. Pity it didn't get a bigger audience. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/477038/LISTEN-Labour-leader-Ed-Miliband-suffers-ANOTHER-interview-disaster-on-live-radio

    Ed =Gerald Ratner.

    @SvenjaODonnell: Ed Miliband and the mumsnet death knell? http://t.co/sEt9RBkr6f
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    That was quite hard work that one Morris - but great band.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BBC apologise for misrepresenting Peter Hitchens.. but he's not leaving it at that!

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I'm surprised the agency did not tell the band who had hired them. Well, actually I'm not.
    Charles said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Roberts for his piece. Entirely possible to see the reds topping the poll. I'd still favour UKIP to do so, although (to get in an Old Who reference) it sounds like a Carnival of the Monsters happened.

    Hmm. I'll see the footage on the news and see what I think. Doesn't sound good.

    The steel band issue is weird, though. UKIP should've been up front who was hiring them. If they were, the band was pulling a stunt, if not, UKIP's organisers were incompetent.

    I'd imagine that UKIP went through an agency.

    But the band behaved inappropriately. If they committed to a booking they should have delivered. Sing "we will not be moved" or something as their encore, but at least perform
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Briskin, Don't You Want Me to keep referencing tracks?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Mr. Corporeal, Tell Me When* it's due up.

    *Yes, yes, that was technically the 90s, but it had an 80s flavour.

    I'm not encouraging you anymore. I get enough of this from TSE as it is.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    That's better Morris :):)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I'm surprised the agency did not tell the band who had hired them. Well, actually I'm not.

    @martinmcgrath: So the steel band wouldn't play, but surely the Romanian Alpenhorn Orchestra were a safe bet #ukipcarnival http://t.co/nEaG0Ouv0i
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Where do I get a Googlebitch from if I need one? Is it the same agency that supplies steel bands and Ed Miliband's shopping assistant?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Mr. Briskin, Don't You Want Me to keep referencing tracks?

    Morris: Shaddap You Face
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Meme Alert

    *Googlebitch*
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Those instruments look like offensive weapons.
    Scott_P said:

    I'm surprised the agency did not tell the band who had hired them. Well, actually I'm not.

    @martinmcgrath: So the steel band wouldn't play, but surely the Romanian Alpenhorn Orchestra were a safe bet #ukipcarnival http://t.co/nEaG0Ouv0i
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Update

    I've stuck in a couple of tweets with some new Euro polls
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    Charles said:

    MattW said:



    The media will swallow it regardless. Not because of a anti-Ukip campaign but because they are gullible.

    I think you're being unfair.

    Media producers are young and under-pressure to deliver to a deadline.

    If someone provides them with a plausible story nicely wrapped up they will jump at it.

    It's laziness, not gullibility that's to blame :)
    I'm not being unfair at all. Though laziness is hardly better than gullibility. Neither is a good reason for incomplete reporting.

    1 - The report was introduced by Guru-Murthy (sp?) as "the fight against Zero Hours Contracts".
    2 - There was enough time for them to do interviews in North America.
    3 - It featured Paul Mason, who has written books about this type of politics.
    4 - The campaigning organisation they featured shares a phone number with the Socialist Party. Hardly difficult to detect.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    Where do I get a Googlebitch from if I need one? Is it the same agency that supplies steel bands and Ed Miliband's shopping assistant?

    lmgtfy.com/?q=how+many+votes+will+the+Conservatives+get+in+2015

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TOPPING said:

    Where do I get a Googlebitch from if I need one? Is it the same agency that supplies steel bands and Ed Miliband's shopping assistant?

    lmgtfy.com/?q=how+many+votes+will+the+Conservatives+get+in+2015

    LOL! Thank you!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I feel tempted to vote Green in the hope of shoving the Lib Dems down to 5th place in England.

    It would be dreadful if Nick Clegg's life work were to lie in a heap of smouldering ashes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    corporeal said:

    Mr. Corporeal, Tell Me When* it's due up.

    *Yes, yes, that was technically the 90s, but it had an 80s flavour.

    I'm not encouraging you anymore. I get enough of this from TSE as it is.
    The Sunday Afternoon thread waiting for the Euro results has been prepared, and contains my subtlest* ever 80s pop music reference ever.

    The headline is The Results for Elections for Europe - The Final Countdown

    And the opening paragraph has the sentences, if Ed or Nigel don't win, I guess there is no one to blame... If UKIP win, Will things ever be the same again?.... If The Tories finish third, that may be expected, But still it's farewell to the Tories small hopes of winning an outright majority in 2015.

    *Yes, that may cause epistemological problems, of sufficient magnitude as to lay upon the logical and semantic resources of the English language a heavier burden than they can reasonably be expected to bear.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Labour voting Green to stop LD Shocker!!!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    edited May 2014
    False flag Romanians.

    Oh:

    twitter.com/Gareth_Davies09/statuses/468747161170354177

    twitter.com/Gareth_Davies09/statuses/468750356915453952

    twitter.com/Gareth_Davies09/statuses/468756618038243328

    twitter.com/Gareth_Davies09/statuses/468756618038243328

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    It would be dreadful if Nick Clegg's life work were to lie in a heap of smouldering ashes.

    I think that sentiment unites people across the political spectrum. Except the ever-shrinking yellow bit, obviously.
    #shadenfreude

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    I feel tempted to vote Green in the hope of shoving the Lib Dems down to 5th place in England.

    It would be dreadful if Nick Clegg's life work were to lie in a heap of smouldering ashes.

    Why can't people just forget about the bloody Cacti green house saga - he was just a kid..!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Ukip's multicultural carnival descends into anarchy as angry Romanians arrive with banners. The Ukip steel band has stopped playing #Croydon

    The live tweeting of this has been hilarious, UKIP are coming across as shambolic.

    Consistently anti-UKIP PB poster views tweets from consistently anti-UKIP tweeters as showing UKIP are shambolic. Stop the press.

    For goodness sake, this is Twitter. It's users are mainly the mentally deficient.
    This is what I love about the Kippers.

    Dave and chumoracy look down on and denigrate ordinary people etc is the charge against Dave, yet Kippers think it is ok accuse some people of this Great country of being mentally deficient because they don't like UKIP.

    This in no way confirms the stereotype that UKIP are a bunch of angry men.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I feel tempted to vote Green in the hope of shoving the Lib Dems down to 5th place in England.

    It would be dreadful if Nick Clegg's life work were to lie in a heap of smouldering ashes.

    Why can't people just forget about the bloody Cacti green house saga - he was just a kid..!
    With a cactus all you feel is a little prick...
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    LOL.

    I feel tempted to vote Green in the hope of shoving the Lib Dems down to 5th place in England.

    It would be dreadful if Nick Clegg's life work were to lie in a heap of smouldering ashes.

    Why can't people just forget about the bloody Cacti green house saga - he was just a kid..!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Scott_P said:

    I'm surprised the agency did not tell the band who had hired them. Well, actually I'm not.

    @martinmcgrath: So the steel band wouldn't play, but surely the Romanian Alpenhorn Orchestra were a safe bet #ukipcarnival http://t.co/nEaG0Ouv0i
    Farage should have booked a German Oompah band.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    Labour has ground game, UKIP doesn’t
    I think that UKIP organisation on the ground is improving by leaps and bounds. Obviously the improvement is patchy, but at some point the assertion that UKIP doesn't have a ground game is going to be exposed for being terribly complacent.

    UKIP has a widespread but as yet unfocused ground game. They've sent me two leaflets in Holloway, where they're really not going to get into double percentage figures, and two more in the Guardianest patch of Broxtowe. I haven't heard of any UKIP canvassing being done at all for the Euros, so they won't have a GOTV operation targeted on supporters. It's an impressive effort from a near-standing start, but it's still not quite major party standard. How much this matters is an interesting question, and one of the things that Thursday (or rather Sunday) may help to tell us.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Just looking at those added extras that TSE has generously given us; Lib Dems on 5% of those certain to vote. I mean, seriously? If that poll turns out to be accurate I shall laugh myself sick but I struggle to believe it will. We are talking here about a party that has 57 MPs and has influence in government far beyond what that number would suggest, a party, furthermore that has been around for hundreds of years. Could it really be reduced to 5% of the vote? Nah, surely it can't happen.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    A cheery picked tweet, but still...

    Gareth Davies ‏@Gareth_Davies09
    To clarify from earlier, the protesters, despite posters, are not from Romania. They are now being questioned by journos for that
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin
    As an accountant, surely you should be aware of articles like this (others available)
    Or did you mean turf accountant?

    http://www.fundweb.co.uk/fund-strategy/issues/3rd-december-2012/corporates-sitting-on-cash-piles/1062556.article
This discussion has been closed.