Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats. Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable. Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Would you like to tell us the whole story, with all the details, please, Lord Charles?
And then, perhaps, to provide balance, you could provide is with a list of all the donations to the Conservative Party from the tax dodgers we have in our midst?
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
I agree. I am THE TrumpToaster but I don't see much wrong with that.
And I recall hearing that he gets a touch of vertigo on descents.
No big deal.
From a betting point of view: perception of Trump's health may affect his chance of re-election. He's not helping himself when he lies (or gets confused) about matters related to his health either, in this case saying the slope was steep and that he ran the last 10 feet. What would have made it slippery anyway, in West Point? They must set these events up knowing that officiating dignitaries will be wearing ordinary shoes, not army boots.
Do we just ignore the fact hes standing against someone older and more doddery ?
@stodge - I think for established employees it's fine. Where it gets tricky is getting new starters up to speed. Building relationships remotely is quite difficult, so that's where I think an office will continue to have a role.
But yeah, I don't want to go back to paying £4,500 a year for the privilege of commuting an hour each way a day.
Yes, it's a point Mrs Stodge has made to me but she is very reluctant to return at this time. I've had to deal with new starters and new clients remotely and the physical proximity just doesn't matter to me.
We have gone strong on the social aspect of the work experience so non-work related gatherings, digitial cuppas and the like and sometimes a colleague will just contact me for a chat.
Work isn't just about work - too many people are brainwashed into thinking it is.
Companies are wasting fortunes on re-configuring office spaces which won't be used - quick anecdote, one firm I know prepared their large office to take 300 out of the normal 1200 staff with all the signage, social distancing and the like.
They got 20 - yes, 20 people back in the first week.
If this is the new normal, then HS2 is a dead duck. My brother-in-law is on nights this weekend renewing the track as Staines. The railways are carrying on as normal (with the tax-payer picking up the tab). It is not sustainable.
Alternatively even Manchester or Liverpool become commutable to London if you only need to be in the office once a week, along with everywhere en route.
Even more radical thought. Why not put the office in Liverpool or Manchester or even Wigan and everyone commute there once a week? Heretical. But much cheaper.
Here's how it can be otherwise - the envisaged drawbacks make a marginal difference, more than offset by the envisaged benefits combined with Government activity accompanying the change that would have been difficult had we still been members.
Benefits: none. Drawbacks: many. Damage to west, and liberal democracy: huge. Shits given: none. Future Tory strategy: look west, across the ocean (culture WARRRRRRR)
@stodge - I think for established employees it's fine. Where it gets tricky is getting new starters up to speed. Building relationships remotely is quite difficult, so that's where I think an office will continue to have a role.
But yeah, I don't want to go back to paying £4,500 a year for the privilege of commuting an hour each way a day.
Yes, it's a point Mrs Stodge has made to me but she is very reluctant to return at this time. I've had to deal with new starters and new clients remotely and the physical proximity just doesn't matter to me.
We have gone strong on the social aspect of the work experience so non-work related gatherings, digitial cuppas and the like and sometimes a colleague will just contact me for a chat.
Work isn't just about work - too many people are brainwashed into thinking it is.
Companies are wasting fortunes on re-configuring office spaces which won't be used - quick anecdote, one firm I know prepared their large office to take 300 out of the normal 1200 staff with all the signage, social distancing and the like.
They got 20 - yes, 20 people back in the first week.
If this is the new normal, then HS2 is a dead duck. My brother-in-law is on nights this weekend renewing the track as Staines. The railways are carrying on as normal (with the tax-payer picking up the tab). It is not sustainable.
Alternatively even Manchester or Liverpool become commutable to London if you only need to be in the office once a week, along with everywhere en route.
Even more radical thought. Why not put the office in Liverpool or Manchester or even Wigan and everyone commute there once a week? Heretical. But much cheaper.
You are better off having a prestigious EC2 address and a ‘back office’ in Wigan where your employees visit once a fortnight.
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
I could argue the same about Obama and his failure to read China which arguably casued more damage . All of them make mistakes but yelling saint or sinner doesn't help reach an objective evaluation of what they have done.
I beseech you to educate yourself about how Trump has corrupted and vandalised the federal government since he came to office.
@stodge - I think for established employees it's fine. Where it gets tricky is getting new starters up to speed. Building relationships remotely is quite difficult, so that's where I think an office will continue to have a role.
But yeah, I don't want to go back to paying £4,500 a year for the privilege of commuting an hour each way a day.
Yes, it's a point Mrs Stodge has made to me but she is very reluctant to return at this time. I've had to deal with new starters and new clients remotely and the physical proximity just doesn't matter to me.
We have gone strong on the social aspect of the work experience so non-work related gatherings, digitial cuppas and the like and sometimes a colleague will just contact me for a chat.
Work isn't just about work - too many people are brainwashed into thinking it is.
Companies are wasting fortunes on re-configuring office spaces which won't be used - quick anecdote, one firm I know prepared their large office to take 300 out of the normal 1200 staff with all the signage, social distancing and the like.
They got 20 - yes, 20 people back in the first week.
If this is the new normal, then HS2 is a dead duck. My brother-in-law is on nights this weekend renewing the track as Staines. The railways are carrying on as normal (with the tax-payer picking up the tab). It is not sustainable.
Alternatively even Manchester or Liverpool become commutable to London if you only need to be in the office once a week, along with everywhere en route.
Even more radical thought. Why not put the office in Liverpool or Manchester or even Wigan and everyone commute there once a week? Heretical. But much cheaper.
Lots of businesses have started in Manchester and Liverpool, dont know about Wigan. London attracts more than them as its much bigger, the most connected city in the world and one of two financial centres in the world.
For small businesses its quite difficult to move locations without losing existing key staff.
So instead of wittering on about statues and the like, I thought I'd witter on about the real revolution that has taken place since mid March and whether this is a societal development with far-reaching consequences or not.
For many (I would argue), lockdown hasn't been too bad. Working at home, food delivered, social interaction via Zoom or whatever, still being paid and none of those annoying travel and lunch costs.
As I talk to clients, some of whom are spending tens of thousands on re-configuring their office spaces for social distancing, there's one message coming through loud and clear - many office workers don't want to go back to their offices and don't see the need.
This has any number of consequences starting with asking the question - is the age of commuting over? The notion of travelling an hour, two hours or more from home to the office and back now seems absurd and futile.
Commuting came because the evolution of rapid mass travel by train in particular opened up the country. The suburbs were the result - peaceful, well designed streets of houses near (initially) the station where the train took you to the city or the town where your office was located.
Now, it literally doesn't matter where you work as long as the technology is robust enough. This has huge implications across a range of issues and, I would argue, will change our culture far more than statues and the like.
As we plan, the feedback we are getting is juniors (often in shared flats with no garden) want to be back in the office while seniors (country / houses with gardens) don’t
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
I could argue the same about Obama and his failure to read China which arguably casued more damage . All of them make mistakes but yelling saint or sinner doesn't help reach an objective evaluation of what they have done.
I beseech you to educate yourself about how Trump has corrupted and vandalised the federal government since he came to office.
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
On the other hand it does look like he has an issue with the right side of his body.
It's happened to me at times when lots of people are looking at me and I'm feeling tense.
It could be something medical in his case since one wouldn't expect it to be nerves.
The Hattie's!
New one on me. But I get it.
Speaking of which, I was just talking about Ray Winstone earlier - as a possible Tory candidate for Mayor to run against Sadiq Khan.
Suppose he'd get your vote.
I doubt it, I am not really a massive fan. I like Scum and Sexy Beast. People I knock about with, people from Essex/East London love all that, but it's not really my cup of tea, I am a nerd! I am sorry if I come across as an EDL type, I just contrast what I read on here with what I hear around me and the gap between the two outlooks is so big I find it interesting and worth commenting on. I think the best candidate for Mayor is Trevor Phillips
I don't think you are an EDL type at all. Far too cerebral.
But I do think you'd vote for Winstone over Khan for London Mayor.
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
But there is no 'encourage the best and appeal to the best' is there.
Instead its 'get some immigrants in, they're cheap and servile and if anyone complains call them racist'.
Labour can't help themselves here and no nostalgia trips about BHS restaurants (which were crap btw) will help.
And while politicians can play monetary games wealth is a different issue - ultimately the rest of the world isn't going to create goods and services for this country to consume without getting something tangible in return.
Now if Labour want to do some original thinking then they need to consider what's going to happen to all those with middle class upbringings and middle class education but who are unable to get achieve middle class lifestyles. What I refer to as middle class regression.
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
But there is no 'encourage the best and appeal to the best' is there.
Instead its 'get some immigrants in, they're cheap and servile and if anyone complains call them racist'.
Labour can't help themselves here and no nostalgia trips about BHS restaurants (which were crap btw) will help.
And while politicians can play monetary games wealth is a different issue - ultimately the rest of the world isn't going to create goods and services for this country to consume without getting something tangible in return.
Now if Labour want to do some original thinking then they need to consider what's going to happen to all those with middle class upbringings and middle class education but who are unable to get achieve middle class lifestyles. What I refer to as middle class regression.
Middle class lifestyle should mean literally that ie £20 to £40k per year, the problem is too many graduates expect to earn £50k+ or even £100k+ when few graduates outside of STEM or law or economics graduates from Russell Group universities will get anywhere near that. Whoever is in power graduates need to be more realistic
My definition of middle class is that you can afford the average house in your area.
If you can't then you're not.
In much of the country people cannot even if they have middle class backgrounds and middle class educations.
Which is what I refer to in middle class regression.
When the people who are suffering from this middle class regression learn that working class people from working class backgrounds can afford to own houses in other parts of the country a source of resentment arises.
Well yes but middle class graduates who live in London and rent largely vote Labour now already anyway
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
So instead of wittering on about statues and the like, I thought I'd witter on about the real revolution that has taken place since mid March and whether this is a societal development with far-reaching consequences or not.
For many (I would argue), lockdown hasn't been too bad. Working at home, food delivered, social interaction via Zoom or whatever, still being paid and none of those annoying travel and lunch costs.
As I talk to clients, some of whom are spending tens of thousands on re-configuring their office spaces for social distancing, there's one message coming through loud and clear - many office workers don't want to go back to their offices and don't see the need.
This has any number of consequences starting with asking the question - is the age of commuting over? The notion of travelling an hour, two hours or more from home to the office and back now seems absurd and futile.
Commuting came because the evolution of rapid mass travel by train in particular opened up the country. The suburbs were the result - peaceful, well designed streets of houses near (initially) the station where the train took you to the city or the town where your office was located.
Now, it literally doesn't matter where you work as long as the technology is robust enough. This has huge implications across a range of issues and, I would argue, will change our culture far more than statues and the like.
On a slightly related note I was thinking a month back as to how much nicer things were then and would be permanently if the population was down by a third of half.
Less pollution, quieter roads, cheaper housing, more countryside.
You get a lot of that benefit by living in not-London. I've had that for the last couple of years and am not totally convinced about returning.
If we can arrange things so that people don't have to spend so much time and money on commuting to work, the benefits could be huge. Probably do a lot for the levelling up agenda as well.
So are you Stuartnotinromford now or are you counting Romford as not London ?
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
But there is no 'encourage the best and appeal to the best' is there.
Instead its 'get some immigrants in, they're cheap and servile and if anyone complains call them racist'.
Labour can't help themselves here and no nostalgia trips about BHS restaurants (which were crap btw) will help.
And while politicians can play monetary games wealth is a different issue - ultimately the rest of the world isn't going to create goods and services for this country to consume without getting something tangible in return.
Now if Labour want to do some original thinking then they need to consider what's going to happen to all those with middle class upbringings and middle class education but who are unable to get achieve middle class lifestyles. What I refer to as middle class regression.
Middle class lifestyle should mean literally that ie £20 to £40k per year, the problem is too many graduates expect to earn £50k+ or even £100k+ when few graduates outside of STEM or law or economics graduates from Russell Group universities will get anywhere near that. Whoever is in power graduates need to be more realistic
For at least the last 75 years every generation has been richer than their parents until this one. Yes the youngsters need to be more realistic, but their parents and grandparents need to be more understanding, and governments need to increase asset taxes and reduce employment taxes.
Time to suck it up , they can admire their blue passports.
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
But the U.K. had the good sense to kick him out for his sins
I think that the RAC were astute enough to see the way the wind was blowing, and made King Billy a shareholder. An effective way of keeping their own business going.
I came across this great little graphic recently. You can click on every dot to see its destination.
What is striking is how many voyages were to the Islands, rather than North America. I think the life expectancy of a fieldhand was just a few years on the sugar plantations, due to disease and overwork, so constant importation needed.
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
I don't think that chap taking a wizz has deliberately sought out the police memorial. Tanked up with no loos about he's found the nearest corner to empty his bladder and paid no attention whatsoever to the fact it was a memorial.
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
But there is no 'encourage the best and appeal to the best' is there.
Instead its 'get some immigrants in, they're cheap and servile and if anyone complains call them racist'.
Labour can't help themselves here and no nostalgia trips about BHS restaurants (which were crap btw) will help.
And while politicians can play monetary games wealth is a different issue - ultimately the rest of the world isn't going to create goods and services for this country to consume without getting something tangible in return.
Now if Labour want to do some original thinking then they need to consider what's going to happen to all those with middle class upbringings and middle class education but who are unable to get achieve middle class lifestyles. What I refer to as middle class regression.
I'm looking ahead not miles backwards. That's stale old talk about New Labour.
But I agree with you about "funny money" not being wealth - and that there are big changes coming to the workplace.
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
I agree. I am THE TrumpToaster but I don't see much wrong with that.
And I recall hearing that he gets a touch of vertigo on descents.
No big deal.
From a betting point of view: perception of Trump's health may affect his chance of re-election. He's not helping himself when he lies (or gets confused) about matters related to his health either, in this case saying the slope was steep and that he ran the last 10 feet. What would have made it slippery anyway, in West Point? They must set these events up knowing that officiating dignitaries will be wearing ordinary shoes, not army boots.
Do we just ignore the fact hes standing against someone older and more doddery ?
Yes.
Bidens weakness is that he's doddery and old and speaks like he has dementia. Against anyone normal that'd be a real weakness.
Trump having those same symptoms essentially neutralises the fact Biden has them too. Which leaves Trumps strengths and weaknesses behind and Biden is pretty much (despite decades in politics) relatively inoffensive compared to eg Hillary last time.
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
So instead of wittering on about statues and the like, I thought I'd witter on about the real revolution that has taken place since mid March and whether this is a societal development with far-reaching consequences or not.
For many (I would argue), lockdown hasn't been too bad. Working at home, food delivered, social interaction via Zoom or whatever, still being paid and none of those annoying travel and lunch costs.
As I talk to clients, some of whom are spending tens of thousands on re-configuring their office spaces for social distancing, there's one message coming through loud and clear - many office workers don't want to go back to their offices and don't see the need.
This has any number of consequences starting with asking the question - is the age of commuting over? The notion of travelling an hour, two hours or more from home to the office and back now seems absurd and futile.
Commuting came because the evolution of rapid mass travel by train in particular opened up the country. The suburbs were the result - peaceful, well designed streets of houses near (initially) the station where the train took you to the city or the town where your office was located.
Now, it literally doesn't matter where you work as long as the technology is robust enough. This has huge implications across a range of issues and, I would argue, will change our culture far more than statues and the like.
As we plan, the feedback we are getting is juniors (often in shared flats with no garden) want to be back in the office while seniors (country / houses with gardens) don’t
In our office, the media team, who are sociable people who like fast personbal interaction, are keen to return, but nobody else that I know of is bothered. We'll think about a partial return in October or later. Maybe.
Chatting to a senior engineer at Google in California, I gather they don't expect to go back to office working till the spring - if ever.
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
But there is no 'encourage the best and appeal to the best' is there.
Instead its 'get some immigrants in, they're cheap and servile and if anyone complains call them racist'.
Labour can't help themselves here and no nostalgia trips about BHS restaurants (which were crap btw) will help.
And while politicians can play monetary games wealth is a different issue - ultimately the rest of the world isn't going to create goods and services for this country to consume without getting something tangible in return.
Now if Labour want to do some original thinking then they need to consider what's going to happen to all those with middle class upbringings and middle class education but who are unable to get achieve middle class lifestyles. What I refer to as middle class regression.
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
But there is no 'encourage the best and appeal to the best' is there.
Instead its 'get some immigrants in, they're cheap and servile and if anyone complains call them racist'.
Labour can't help themselves here and no nostalgia trips about BHS restaurants (which were crap btw) will help.
And while politicians can play monetary games wealth is a different issue - ultimately the rest of the world isn't going to create goods and services for this country to consume without getting something tangible in return.
Now if Labour want to do some original thinking then they need to consider what's going to happen to all those with middle class upbringings and middle class education but who are unable to get achieve middle class lifestyles. What I refer to as middle class regression.
Middle class lifestyle should mean literally that ie £20 to £40k per year, the problem is too many graduates expect to earn £50k+ or even £100k+ when few graduates outside of STEM or law or economics graduates from Russell Group universities will get anywhere near that. Whoever is in power graduates need to be more realistic
My definition of middle class is that you can afford the average house in your area.
If you can't then you're not.
In much of the country people cannot even if they have middle class backgrounds and middle class educations.
Which is what I refer to in middle class regression.
When the people who are suffering from this middle class regression learn that working class people from working class backgrounds can afford to own houses in other parts of the country a source of resentment arises.
Well yes but middle class graduates who live in London and rent largely vote Labour now already anyway
Many young graduates traditionally voted Labour but became more Conservative as they became homeowners.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
- Michael Brown stole money from pensioners and some of that money was donated to the LibDems. Tge LibDems case was that it wasn’t possible to tell 100% whether those donations were from the stolen money or from the contractual fees Brown legitimately charged
- Polly Peck made donations to the Tories (presumably at the behest of its controlling shareholder). Said shareholder also (not sure if at the same time) defrauded the company which went bankrupt. The Tory case is that the donations were received legally from a company and were not donations by Nadir of money he had stolen from that company. (The equivalent to the LD argument would be if Nadir had made the donation directly and the Tories argued “well it may have been from his salary not the stolen money”)
Another in my occasional series of looking at European polls (no giggling in the cheap seats).
Starting tonight in Czechia, or the Czech Republic if you prefer, ANO, the party formed by Andrej Babis, leads with 32% (-2). The Pirates are second on 17% and the ODS party formed by Vaclav Klaus on 14% (+2). ANO's governing partners, the Social Democrats, are on 6% and in fourth we have the SPD, who aren't as you might think the Social Democrats but the Freedom & Direct Democracy Party which has 8%.
The next GE in Czechia is October 2021.
Not much change in Italy where Lega leads on 28%, ahead of the Social Democrats on 21% but M5S have dropped to fourth as the new kid on the block, the conservative Brothers of Italy (FdL) have gone third on 15%
In Austria, Kurz's OVP has dropped slightly but still has a massive lead polling 44% (-2), miles ahead of the SPO on 17% and the Greens on 16%.
Similar in Germany where the Union has hit 40% in the current Forsa poll with the Greens back second on 17% (+2) and the SPD third on 14% (-2). The FDP are back on 6% which must be a worry for the Union as if the FDP fails to get above 5% they'll be out of the Bundestag making life difficult in terms of finding a coalition partner.
Spain is more interesting with the governing PSOE on 27%, only just ahead of PP on 23% (+1). VOX have steadied to 15% in third with United Podemos on 12% and Citizens on 7%.
Finally, for now in Denmark, where the governing Social Democrats are on 33% (+1) with the leading opposition Venstre on 21% (-1) and a clutch of parties on 6-7%. The most interesting of these are the Nye Borgerlige (New Right), the successor to the old Fremskridtsparti - they want Denmark out of the EU and are up two points to six.
The governing centre-left bloc has a commanding advantage with 54% of the vote.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
I didn't know that.
Change usually produces more opponents than supporters in the short term at least.
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
I could argue the same about Obama and his failure to read China which arguably casued more damage . All of them make mistakes but yelling saint or sinner doesn't help reach an objective evaluation of what they have done.
I beseech you to educate yourself about how Trump has corrupted and vandalised the federal government since he came to office.
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats. Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable. Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Would you like to tell us the whole story, with all the details, please, Lord Charles?
And then, perhaps, to provide balance, you could provide is with a list of all the donations to the Conservative Party from the tax dodgers we have in our midst?
I’m not the son of an earl, so just a humble Charles will do.
I’m also not a member of the Tory Party and don’t have access to their donors list
But I replied to @nichomar comparing and contrasting the Michael Brown and Asil Nadir cases which I think are probably the closest
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
How do you think that would play out in Surrey, Nick?
There is one County and eleven District or Borough Councils and my understanding is relations between them haven't always been and aren't always harmonious.
Could the whole lot become a single Surrey Council (on the Cornwall model)? or would a split between west, central and east be possible?
Might be interesting to see how Surrey Conservatives react.
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
The recent Applebaum article is a must read for people who are sanguine about another 4 years of Trump.
The Democrats threatened 4 years of Freddie Kruger instead we got Yosemite Sam
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
But there is no 'encourage the best and appeal to the best' is there.
Instead its 'get some immigrants in, they're cheap and servile and if anyone complains call them racist'.
Labour can't help themselves here and no nostalgia trips about BHS restaurants (which were crap btw) will help.
And while politicians can play monetary games wealth is a different issue - ultimately the rest of the world isn't going to create goods and services for this country to consume without getting something tangible in return.
Now if Labour want to do some original thinking then they need to consider what's going to happen to all those with middle class upbringings and middle class education but who are unable to get achieve middle class lifestyles. What I refer to as middle class regression.
I'm looking ahead not miles backwards. That's stale old talk about New Labour.
But I agree with you about "funny money" not being wealth - and that there are big changes coming to the workplace.
You might be looking ahead but are Labour ?
I will look at in with interest if I ever see anything.
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
I could argue the same about Obama and his failure to read China which arguably casued more damage . All of them make mistakes but yelling saint or sinner doesn't help reach an objective evaluation of what they have done.
I beseech you to educate yourself about how Trump has corrupted and vandalised the federal government since he came to office.
Michael Lewis book on that was shocking. Putting the guy from the commercial weather sector in charge of the NOAH data was extraordinary.
I’m really surprised that no one called that out as a conflict of interests
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
But the U.K. had the good sense to kick him out for his sins
I think that the RAC were astute enough to see the way the wind was blowing, and made King Billy a shareholder. An effective way of keeping their own business going.
I came across this great little graphic recently. You can click on every dot to see its destination.
What is striking is how many voyages were to the Islands, rather than North America. I think the life expectancy of a fieldhand was just a few years on the sugar plantations, due to disease and overwork, so constant importation needed.
On my admittedly not extensive reading on the Atlantic slave trade, the most chilling thing was that the commercial model was actually built on the absolute expectation that that the field hands' life expectancy would only be several years and they ran things on the basis that there would be a very high rate of attrition and replacement.
Of course I'm sure like the other great crime of the modern age that there's a whole area of denial that attributes these deaths to disease and scarcity of food about which nothing could be done.
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
The recent Applebaum article is a must read for people who are sanguine about another 4 years of Trump.
The Democrats threatened 4 years of Freddie Kruger instead we got Yosemite Sam
The insight. The insight.
Mine's a pint.
Oh sorry. yes Trump evilest man ever worse than Hitler and Stalin, owns a plantation you know and his grandfather was Jefferson Davis etc.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
So instead of wittering on about statues and the like, I thought I'd witter on about the real revolution that has taken place since mid March and whether this is a societal development with far-reaching consequences or not.
For many (I would argue), lockdown hasn't been too bad. Working at home, food delivered, social interaction via Zoom or whatever, still being paid and none of those annoying travel and lunch costs.
As I talk to clients, some of whom are spending tens of thousands on re-configuring their office spaces for social distancing, there's one message coming through loud and clear - many office workers don't want to go back to their offices and don't see the need.
This has any number of consequences starting with asking the question - is the age of commuting over? The notion of travelling an hour, two hours or more from home to the office and back now seems absurd and futile.
Commuting came because the evolution of rapid mass travel by train in particular opened up the country. The suburbs were the result - peaceful, well designed streets of houses near (initially) the station where the train took you to the city or the town where your office was located.
Now, it literally doesn't matter where you work as long as the technology is robust enough. This has huge implications across a range of issues and, I would argue, will change our culture far more than statues and the like.
On a slightly related note I was thinking a month back as to how much nicer things were then and would be permanently if the population was down by a third of half.
Less pollution, quieter roads, cheaper housing, more countryside.
You get a lot of that benefit by living in not-London. I've had that for the last couple of years and am not totally convinced about returning.
If we can arrange things so that people don't have to spend so much time and money on commuting to work, the benefits could be huge. Probably do a lot for the levelling up agenda as well.
So are you Stuartnotinromford now or are you counting Romford as not London ?
Temporarily displaced to a small town in Yorkshire, and too lazy to update the name.
As for Romford- it has red buses and metropolitan police. Of course it's London, and Andrew Rosindell is a chump for campaigning otherwise.
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
I agree. I am THE TrumpToaster but I don't see much wrong with that.
And I recall hearing that he gets a touch of vertigo on descents.
No big deal.
From a betting point of view: perception of Trump's health may affect his chance of re-election. He's not helping himself when he lies (or gets confused) about matters related to his health either, in this case saying the slope was steep and that he ran the last 10 feet. What would have made it slippery anyway, in West Point? They must set these events up knowing that officiating dignitaries will be wearing ordinary shoes, not army boots.
I actually think it might gain him a few votes if it looks like he has a physical health problem.
So instead of wittering on about statues and the like, I thought I'd witter on about the real revolution that has taken place since mid March and whether this is a societal development with far-reaching consequences or not.
For many (I would argue), lockdown hasn't been too bad. Working at home, food delivered, social interaction via Zoom or whatever, still being paid and none of those annoying travel and lunch costs.
As I talk to clients, some of whom are spending tens of thousands on re-configuring their office spaces for social distancing, there's one message coming through loud and clear - many office workers don't want to go back to their offices and don't see the need.
This has any number of consequences starting with asking the question - is the age of commuting over? The notion of travelling an hour, two hours or more from home to the office and back now seems absurd and futile.
Commuting came because the evolution of rapid mass travel by train in particular opened up the country. The suburbs were the result - peaceful, well designed streets of houses near (initially) the station where the train took you to the city or the town where your office was located.
Now, it literally doesn't matter where you work as long as the technology is robust enough. This has huge implications across a range of issues and, I would argue, will change our culture far more than statues and the like.
As we plan, the feedback we are getting is juniors (often in shared flats with no garden) want to be back in the office while seniors (country / houses with gardens) don’t
In our office, the media team, who are sociable people who like fast personbal interaction, are keen to return, but nobody else that I know of is bothered. We'll think about a partial return in October or later. Maybe.
Chatting to a senior engineer at Google in California, I gather they don't expect to go back to office working till the spring - if ever.
Do any of these people realise what this will do to the economy?
It's not their responsibility, of course, they can choose to work how they like, but if vast swathes of city workers do not return to office life, millions of dependant jobs will go - cafes, restaurants, sandwich bars, convenience stores, taxi services, public transport, petrol stations, on and on.
It will be a huge, brutal change and it will cost a large chunk of GDP, before things adapt to a new normal. And this on TOP of the costs of the pandemic itself
BRACE.
That's a lot of low level service sector jobs in urban areas which could go.
So what happens to the people who worked in them.
Even if more jobs are created in the outer suburbs, commuter towns and rural areas they might not be of much use to the urban population.
As we plan, the feedback we are getting is juniors (often in shared flats with no garden) want to be back in the office while seniors (country / houses with gardens) don’t
I've heard that too - as you say, the young who live with parents or in shared accommodation prefer the office environment and the social aspects of work after work (drinking, meals out and the like).
Older colleagues (and I'm one) tend to be mostly much less keen - those with plenty of children are currently in favour but reason with the re-opening of schools in the autumn homeworking might be quite pleasant. Those without children are the most resistant. Home working is for many very attractive and has worked unexpectedly well.
No client I've dealt with is envisaging any kind of compulsion at this time - most think their limited offices can't cope with numbers so getting the younger staff back (who would be less at risk anyway) is the shrewd option leaving the more vulnerable staff at home. Almost all are doing some form of risk assessment to get numbers.
As I said earlier, very few want to come back at this time and messages regarding public transport aren't encouraging that either.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
I didn't know that.
Change usually produces more opponents than supporters in the short term at least.
Seems an odd thing to do in the middle of a crisis. Though it might hide some councils going bust.
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
I agree. I am THE TrumpToaster but I don't see much wrong with that.
And I recall hearing that he gets a touch of vertigo on descents.
No big deal.
From a betting point of view: perception of Trump's health may affect his chance of re-election. He's not helping himself when he lies (or gets confused) about matters related to his health either, in this case saying the slope was steep and that he ran the last 10 feet. What would have made it slippery anyway, in West Point? They must set these events up knowing that officiating dignitaries will be wearing ordinary shoes, not army boots.
Do we just ignore the fact hes standing against someone older and more doddery ?
Yes.
Bidens weakness is that he's doddery and old and speaks like he has dementia. Against anyone normal that'd be a real weakness.
Trump having those same symptoms essentially neutralises the fact Biden has them too. Which leaves Trumps strengths and weaknesses behind and Biden is pretty much (despite decades in politics) relatively inoffensive compared to eg Hillary last time.
Hillary was mostly offensive because she was a woman.
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
I agree. I am THE TrumpToaster but I don't see much wrong with that.
And I recall hearing that he gets a touch of vertigo on descents.
No big deal.
From a betting point of view: perception of Trump's health may affect his chance of re-election. He's not helping himself when he lies (or gets confused) about matters related to his health either, in this case saying the slope was steep and that he ran the last 10 feet. What would have made it slippery anyway, in West Point? They must set these events up knowing that officiating dignitaries will be wearing ordinary shoes, not army boots.
Do we just ignore the fact hes standing against someone older and more doddery ?
Yes.
Bidens weakness is that he's doddery and old and speaks like he has dementia. Against anyone normal that'd be a real weakness.
Trump having those same symptoms essentially neutralises the fact Biden has them too. Which leaves Trumps strengths and weaknesses behind and Biden is pretty much (despite decades in politics) relatively inoffensive compared to eg Hillary last time.
Hillary was mostly offensive because she was a woman.
Biden does not have this handicap.
Really?
I believe Hillary had a lot of issues hanging around her neck.
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats. Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable. Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Would you like to tell us the whole story, with all the details, please, Lord Charles?
And then, perhaps, to provide balance, you could provide is with a list of all the donations to the Conservative Party from the tax dodgers we have in our midst?
I’m not the son of an earl, so just a humble Charles will do.
I’m also not a member of the Tory Party and don’t have access to their donors list
But I replied to @nichomar comparing and contrasting the Michael Brown and Asil Nadir cases which I think are probably the closest
Schoolboy error there Charles. Elder sons of earls are viscounts; younger ones are Hons. Although elder ones could be called Lord Smith but not Lord Charles Smith. Younger sons of dukes or marquesses would be called Lord Charles Smith.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
It would also reduce the Tory activist base, unless they are very ideological many Tory members and activists are only involved with the aim of getting elected to the council.
If there are fewer elected council posts available that means fewer will bother to campaign
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
But the U.K. had the good sense to kick him out for his sins
The 'U.K.'?
Shorthand.
Yes I know that you guys were happy being ruled over by a slaver, but shit happens
Yes, that whole English 'get rid of that Jock slaver' thing was an an astoundingly early example of early wokeism. Shame about the subsequent century long preeminence in the triangular trade, but a mere detail in the big picture.
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
I agree. I am THE TrumpToaster but I don't see much wrong with that.
And I recall hearing that he gets a touch of vertigo on descents.
No big deal.
From a betting point of view: perception of Trump's health may affect his chance of re-election. He's not helping himself when he lies (or gets confused) about matters related to his health either, in this case saying the slope was steep and that he ran the last 10 feet. What would have made it slippery anyway, in West Point? They must set these events up knowing that officiating dignitaries will be wearing ordinary shoes, not army boots.
Do we just ignore the fact hes standing against someone older and more doddery ?
Yes.
Bidens weakness is that he's doddery and old and speaks like he has dementia. Against anyone normal that'd be a real weakness.
Trump having those same symptoms essentially neutralises the fact Biden has them too. Which leaves Trumps strengths and weaknesses behind and Biden is pretty much (despite decades in politics) relatively inoffensive compared to eg Hillary last time.
Hillary was mostly offensive because she was a woman.
Biden does not have this handicap.
Really?
I believe Hillary had a lot of issues hanging around her neck.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
That would be an immense upheaval, and would cause considerable ructions at a time when, as you rightly point out, there are other things to worry about.
I seem to have some vague recollection of this being tried many years ago here in Hertfordshire, where we have a county and ten districts. The plan was to create three unitaries. Save for the county council itself, only one of the districts opposed it - North Herts, presumably on account of the fact that the local Tories didn't really fancy being turned into a permanent minority in a proposed unitary dominated by Labour Stevenage, which they suspect would've neglected the villages and market towns whilst using them as a cash machine.
I would expect similar objections this time around.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
It would also reduce the Tory activist base, unless they are very ideological many Tory members and activists are only involved with the aim of getting elected to the council.
If there are fewer elected council posts available that means fewer will bother to campaign
Very true, it’s why tories hate lib dems because they take council seats off them. Given the amount of consultation required you won’t see this implemented this side of 24
Another in my occasional series of looking at European polls (no giggling in the cheap seats).
Starting tonight in Czechia, or the Czech Republic if you prefer, ANO, the party formed by Andrej Babis, leads with 32% (-2). The Pirates are second on 17% and the ODS party formed by Vaclav Klaus on 14% (+2). ANO's governing partners, the Social Democrats, are on 6% and in fourth we have the SPD, who aren't as you might think the Social Democrats but the Freedom & Direct Democracy Party which has 8%.
The next GE in Czechia is October 2021.
Not much change in Italy where Lega leads on 28%, ahead of the Social Democrats on 21% but M5S have dropped to fourth as the new kid on the block, the conservative Brothers of Italy (FdL) have gone third on 15%
In Austria, Kurz's OVP has dropped slightly but still has a massive lead polling 44% (-2), miles ahead of the SPO on 17% and the Greens on 16%.
Similar in Germany where the Union has hit 40% in the current Forsa poll with the Greens back second on 17% (+2) and the SPD third on 14% (-2). The FDP are back on 6% which must be a worry for the Union as if the FDP fails to get above 5% they'll be out of the Bundestag making life difficult in terms of finding a coalition partner.
Spain is more interesting with the governing PSOE on 27%, only just ahead of PP on 23% (+1). VOX have steadied to 15% in third with United Podemos on 12% and Citizens on 7%.
Finally, for now in Denmark, where the governing Social Democrats are on 33% (+1) with the leading opposition Venstre on 21% (-1) and a clutch of parties on 6-7%. The most interesting of these are the Nye Borgerlige (New Right), the successor to the old Fremskridtsparti - they want Denmark out of the EU and are up two points to six.
The governing centre-left bloc has a commanding advantage with 54% of the vote.
Looks like Salvini in Italy is the likeliest possibility for another populist right leader to be elected
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats.
Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet
I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable.
Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Of course the tories have never had dodgy money have they
Tory double standards. Just like all the fuss over Layla’s argument with her boyfriend and there’s the Tories putting up a self confessed former burglar for London mayor.
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
But there is no 'encourage the best and appeal to the best' is there.
Instead its 'get some immigrants in, they're cheap and servile and if anyone complains call them racist'.
Labour can't help themselves here and no nostalgia trips about BHS restaurants (which were crap btw) will help.
And while politicians can play monetary games wealth is a different issue - ultimately the rest of the world isn't going to create goods and services for this country to consume without getting something tangible in return.
Now if Labour want to do some original thinking then they need to consider what's going to happen to all those with middle class upbringings and middle class education but who are unable to get achieve middle class lifestyles. What I refer to as middle class regression.
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
But there is no 'encourage the best and appeal to the best' is there.
Instead its 'get some immigrants in, they're cheap and servile and if anyone complains call them racist'.
Labour can't help themselves here and no nostalgia trips about BHS restaurants (which were crap btw) will help.
And while politicians can play monetary games wealth is a different issue - ultimately the rest of the world isn't going to create goods and services for this country to consume without getting something tangible in return.
Now if Labour want to do some original thinking then they need to consider what's going to happen to all those with middle class upbringings and middle class education but who are unable to get achieve middle class lifestyles. What I refer to as middle class regression.
Middle class lifestyle should mean literally that ie £20 to £40k per year, the problem is too many graduates expect to earn £50k+ or even £100k+ when few graduates outside of STEM or law or economics graduates from Russell Group universities will get anywhere near that. Whoever is in power graduates need to be more realistic
My definition of middle class is that you can afford the average house in your area.
If you can't then you're not.
In much of the country people cannot even if they have middle class backgrounds and middle class educations.
Which is what I refer to in middle class regression.
When the people who are suffering from this middle class regression learn that working class people from working class backgrounds can afford to own houses in other parts of the country a source of resentment arises.
Well yes but middle class graduates who live in London and rent largely vote Labour now already anyway
Many young graduates traditionally voted Labour but became more Conservative as they became homeowners.
And if they move out of London where property is cheaper they still will do
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats. Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable. Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Would you like to tell us the whole story, with all the details, please, Lord Charles?
And then, perhaps, to provide balance, you could provide is with a list of all the donations to the Conservative Party from the tax dodgers we have in our midst?
I’m not the son of an earl, so just a humble Charles will do.
I’m also not a member of the Tory Party and don’t have access to their donors list
But I replied to @nichomar comparing and contrasting the Michael Brown and Asil Nadir cases which I think are probably the closest
Schoolboy error there Charles. Elder sons of earls are viscounts; younger ones are Hons. Although elder ones could be called Lord Smith but not Lord Charles Smith. Younger sons of dukes or marquesses would be called Lord Charles Smith.
Most people I know don’t use the honorific title that much.
But I was referring to the difference between Lord Alfred Tennyson and Alfred, Lord Tennyson
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
Yes, that's where I am too. Tke PB Surrey Popular Front, eh?
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
But the U.K. had the good sense to kick him out for his sins
The 'U.K.'?
Shorthand.
Yes I know that you guys were happy being ruled over by a slaver, but shit happens
Yes, that whole English 'get rid of that Jock slaver' thing was an an astoundingly early example of early wokeism. Shame about the subsequent century long preeminence in the triangular trade, but a mere detail in the big picture.
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
The recent Applebaum article is a must read for people who are sanguine about another 4 years of Trump.
The Democrats threatened 4 years of Freddie Kruger instead we got Yosemite Sam
The insight. The insight.
Mine's a pint.
Oh sorry. yes Trump evilest man ever worse than Hitler and Stalin, owns a plantation you know and his grandfather was Jefferson Davis etc.
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
But the U.K. had the good sense to kick him out for his sins
Fathering a son on your wife is not generally considered a sin. I am sure even Justin would consider that acceptable although he might have something to say about James’ - ahem - extra marital activities.
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats.
Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet
I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable.
Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Of course the tories have never had dodgy money have they
Tory double standards. Just like all the fuss over Layla’s argument with her boyfriend and there’s the Tories putting up a self confessed former burglar for London mayor.
could you explain the difference between Tory double standards and Liberal Democrat double standards ?
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
I agree. I am THE TrumpToaster but I don't see much wrong with that.
And I recall hearing that he gets a touch of vertigo on descents.
No big deal.
From a betting point of view: perception of Trump's health may affect his chance of re-election. He's not helping himself when he lies (or gets confused) about matters related to his health either, in this case saying the slope was steep and that he ran the last 10 feet. What would have made it slippery anyway, in West Point? They must set these events up knowing that officiating dignitaries will be wearing ordinary shoes, not army boots.
Do we just ignore the fact hes standing against someone older and more doddery ?
Yes.
Bidens weakness is that he's doddery and old and speaks like he has dementia. Against anyone normal that'd be a real weakness.
Trump having those same symptoms essentially neutralises the fact Biden has them too. Which leaves Trumps strengths and weaknesses behind and Biden is pretty much (despite decades in politics) relatively inoffensive compared to eg Hillary last time.
Hillary was mostly offensive because she was a woman.
Biden does not have this handicap.
Really?
I believe Hillary had a lot of issues hanging around her neck.
Her sex was not one of them
You think a twice divorced woman who was on record talking about how she could grab mens penises could have won the presidential election?
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats.
Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet
I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable.
Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Of course the tories have never had dodgy money have they
Tory double standards. Just like all the fuss over Layla’s argument with her boyfriend and there’s the Tories putting up a self confessed former burglar for London mayor.
You could try reading and replying to my argument rather than going for the warm glow of political onanism
It’s pretty steep - on a road I would have a warning - may be 1:7 or something. In any event you’d normally end up running slightly down it, which would be undignified, and it takes some effort to slow walk down something like that
Trump looks fine there.
Plenty of vids evidence his dementia, this isn't one
Rejoice oh ye MAGAers, because Trump is +2 on Biden!!!
(in Arkansas)
I sense that I've called this one earlier and righter than I've ever called anything.
Trump is utterly fucked and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
God bless America. They have their issues - hence 2016 - but they are not Moron Nation.
3 million more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump!
Be double that this time - ☺
Quite probably, Biden has people working for him who can read the electoral college map.
I was talking about the PV there but - yes - they will surely be more savvy on the EC front this time. Just in case it is NOT a landslide.
Do we know who is on Biden's campaign staff? One of my biggest mistakes was assuming Hilary had retained some of Obama's data team when instead she rejected all of them and put in place a bunch of fucking morons who thought Obama had won 'wrong' in 2012.
I want to make sure none of those thunder fucks are involved with Biden.
Do any of these people realise what this will do to the economy?
It's not their responsibility, of course, they can choose to work how they like, but if vast swathes of city workers do not return to office life, millions of dependant jobs will go - cafes, restaurants, sandwich bars, convenience stores, taxi services, public transport, petrol stations, on and on.
It will be a huge, brutal change and it will cost a large chunk of GDP, before things adapt to a new normal. And this on TOP of the costs of the pandemic itself
BRACE.
There will be winners and losers but capitalism's like that - it's brutal but it provides opportunities for the adroit and the adept.
Home deliveries for example have grown exponentially - will they continue? We know online retail has prospered. Some local retail will be fine - the corner shop will be all right and for the elderly and others the trip into town will still happen.
I do agree transport providers face a very uncertain future. For months, trains have run, virtually empty, generating no revenue for the operators but the track needs to be maintained. The buses in my part of London are quiet, the tube largely deserted.
Local pubs and cafes will be all right - people who work at home still have lunch. The city centre places will still be frequented by the young at the weekend.
As an aside, if I were a home designer I'd be cutting back on bedrooms in favour of a ready made home office space.
The suburban retail infrastructure might do well from this - perhaps a return to a more community-focussed retail.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
I didn't know that.
Change usually produces more opponents than supporters in the short term at least.
Seems an odd thing to do in the middle of a crisis. Though it might hide some councils going bust.
If you've just cottoned onto this being a divisive issue in the SNP I may have to withdraw your PB Scotch expert membership.
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats. Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable. Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Would you like to tell us the whole story, with all the details, please, Lord Charles?
And then, perhaps, to provide balance, you could provide is with a list of all the donations to the Conservative Party from the tax dodgers we have in our midst?
I’m not the son of an earl, so just a humble Charles will do.
I’m also not a member of the Tory Party and don’t have access to their donors list
But I replied to @nichomar comparing and contrasting the Michael Brown and Asil Nadir cases which I think are probably the closest
Schoolboy error there Charles. Elder sons of earls are viscounts; younger ones are Hons. Although elder ones could be called Lord Smith but not Lord Charles Smith. Younger sons of dukes or marquesses would be called Lord Charles Smith.
I think, @Charles , that someone is comparing you to a ventriloquist's dummy :-) .
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
The recent Applebaum article is a must read for people who are sanguine about another 4 years of Trump.
The Democrats threatened 4 years of Freddie Kruger instead we got Yosemite Sam
The insight. The insight.
Mine's a pint.
Oh sorry. yes Trump evilest man ever worse than Hitler and Stalin, owns a plantation you know and his grandfather was Jefferson Davis etc.
Happy now ?
Now you're just being shallow and facetious.
Go forth and read.
well yes,but lets face it you having a sulk about me not reading an article you couldn't even be arsed to provide a link to has its own fun
So instead of wittering on about statues and the like, I thought I'd witter on about the real revolution that has taken place since mid March and whether this is a societal development with far-reaching consequences or not.
For many (I would argue), lockdown hasn't been too bad. Working at home, food delivered, social interaction via Zoom or whatever, still being paid and none of those annoying travel and lunch costs.
As I talk to clients, some of whom are spending tens of thousands on re-configuring their office spaces for social distancing, there's one message coming through loud and clear - many office workers don't want to go back to their offices and don't see the need.
This has any number of consequences starting with asking the question - is the age of commuting over? The notion of travelling an hour, two hours or more from home to the office and back now seems absurd and futile.
Commuting came because the evolution of rapid mass travel by train in particular opened up the country. The suburbs were the result - peaceful, well designed streets of houses near (initially) the station where the train took you to the city or the town where your office was located.
Now, it literally doesn't matter where you work as long as the technology is robust enough. This has huge implications across a range of issues and, I would argue, will change our culture far more than statues and the like.
On a slightly related note I was thinking a month back as to how much nicer things were then and would be permanently if the population was down by a third of half.
Less pollution, quieter roads, cheaper housing, more countryside.
Wanting teachers to have lower salaries is reprehensible but possibly understandable.
Thinking ‘how much nicer’ things would be if there was a genocide is - rather disturbing.
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats. Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable. Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Would you like to tell us the whole story, with all the details, please, Lord Charles?
And then, perhaps, to provide balance, you could provide is with a list of all the donations to the Conservative Party from the tax dodgers we have in our midst?
I’m not the son of an earl, so just a humble Charles will do.
I’m also not a member of the Tory Party and don’t have access to their donors list
But I replied to @nichomar comparing and contrasting the Michael Brown and Asil Nadir cases which I think are probably the closest
Schoolboy error there Charles. Elder sons of earls are viscounts; younger ones are Hons. Although elder ones could be called Lord Smith but not Lord Charles Smith. Younger sons of dukes or marquesses would be called Lord Charles Smith.
Most people I know don’t use the honorific title that much.
But I was referring to the difference between Lord Alfred Tennyson and Alfred, Lord Tennyson
I have no idea what you are talking about.
You said for the poster not to call you Lord Charles because you were not the son of an earl.
But the son of an earl wouldn't be called Lord Charles.
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
I could argue the same about Obama and his failure to read China which arguably casued more damage . All of them make mistakes but yelling saint or sinner doesn't help reach an objective evaluation of what they have done.
I beseech you to educate yourself about how Trump has corrupted and vandalised the federal government since he came to office.
Michael Lewis book on that was shocking. Putting the guy from the commercial weather sector in charge of the NOAH data was extraordinary.
I’m really surprised that no one called that out as a conflict of interests
Yes that was quite incredible that whole "no transition" thing. Started as he meant to go on. Let's not even bother trying to pretend we give a shit.
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
But none of this is why he is unelectable. In fact the crisis gave him a golden chance to turn it around. He just needed to do the basics and look a little bit like a president.
It proved beyond him.
Oh, I agree. All Trump had to do was spend lots of public money on all the pandemic essentials and sell himself as the strong protector of the nation - the crisis was fairly compatible with many aspects of his self-image. But he couldn't do it.
George W, Bush would've handled this situation - at least politically - with ease. Call for rallying around the flag and look concerned. Easy. And in 2004, he faced a tougher opponent in Kerry.
No he wouldn't. The Bush presidency descended into the massacre of the 2006 midterms because of how incompetent his Hurricane Katrina response was.
It exposed how badly fucked up and crony riddled his administration was.
Just because Trump is appalling don't forget that Bush was bloody awful.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
Bloody stupid idea. Unitary authorities have always proven unpopular and most of them are very bad.
Of course that is not to say all is rosy in County councils. Northamptonshire springs to mind.
So instead of wittering on about statues and the like, I thought I'd witter on about the real revolution that has taken place since mid March and whether this is a societal development with far-reaching consequences or not.
For many (I would argue), lockdown hasn't been too bad. Working at home, food delivered, social interaction via Zoom or whatever, still being paid and none of those annoying travel and lunch costs.
As I talk to clients, some of whom are spending tens of thousands on re-configuring their office spaces for social distancing, there's one message coming through loud and clear - many office workers don't want to go back to their offices and don't see the need.
This has any number of consequences starting with asking the question - is the age of commuting over? The notion of travelling an hour, two hours or more from home to the office and back now seems absurd and futile.
Commuting came because the evolution of rapid mass travel by train in particular opened up the country. The suburbs were the result - peaceful, well designed streets of houses near (initially) the station where the train took you to the city or the town where your office was located.
Now, it literally doesn't matter where you work as long as the technology is robust enough. This has huge implications across a range of issues and, I would argue, will change our culture far more than statues and the like.
On a slightly related note I was thinking a month back as to how much nicer things were then and would be permanently if the population was down by a third of half.
Less pollution, quieter roads, cheaper housing, more countryside.
Wanting teachers to have lower salaries is reprehensible but possibly understandable.
Thinking ‘how much nicer’ things would be if there was a genocide is - rather disturbing.
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
He's good at winning elections, doncha know? Two London Mayoralties Brexit (arguably) Tory Leadership GE 2019
Cheating and chicanery for the most part. So what else can you tell us?
That he's only good at winning elections?
But not honestly, according to the rules. That is why the Conservatives are no longer trusted. They are cheats. Would you want to play cards with a Conservative?
Have the Liberal Democrats returned the pensioners money that Michael Brown stole and gave them yet I know that your persuaded the electoral commission that it was a legal donation, but that doesn’t mean the source of funds was acceptable. Until you repay it your party is beneath contempt.
Would you like to tell us the whole story, with all the details, please, Lord Charles?
And then, perhaps, to provide balance, you could provide is with a list of all the donations to the Conservative Party from the tax dodgers we have in our midst?
I’m not the son of an earl, so just a humble Charles will do.
I’m also not a member of the Tory Party and don’t have access to their donors list
But I replied to @nichomar comparing and contrasting the Michael Brown and Asil Nadir cases which I think are probably the closest
Schoolboy error there Charles. Elder sons of earls are viscounts; younger ones are Hons. Although elder ones could be called Lord Smith but not Lord Charles Smith. Younger sons of dukes or marquesses would be called Lord Charles Smith.
I think, @Charles , that someone is comparing you to a ventriloquist's dummy :-) .
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
Yes, that's where I am too. Tke PB Surrey Popular Front, eh?
If you're looking for savings, I doubt the "three council" model will deliver much if anything. In truth, abolishing the 12 and replacing with one is probably the most cost effective.
You'd end up with 120-140 Councillors (perhaps) so a split between east and west Surrey (on the Sussex model) may be the more acceptable. To be fair, combining the back office functions between the two authorities while maintaining separate democratic functions wouldn't be difficult.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
Bloody stupid idea. Unitary authorities have always proven unpopular and most of them are very bad.
Of course that is not to say all is rosy in County councils. Northamptonshire springs to mind.
They are either too big eg cornwall or to small as happened in Berkshire. They do lose the sense of community representation and walk over existing preferred party administrations.
North West Surrey: Surrey Heath, Woking, Elmbridge, Runneymede and Spelthorne South West Surrey: Guildford and Waverley East Surrey: Mole Valley, Epsom and Ewell, Reigate and Banstead, and Tandridge
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
Yes, that's where I am too. Tke PB Surrey Popular Front, eh?
If you're looking for savings, I doubt the "three council" model will deliver much if anything. In truth, abolishing the 12 and replacing with one is probably the most cost effective.
You'd end up with 120-140 Councillors (perhaps) so a split between east and west Surrey (on the Sussex model) may be the more acceptable. To be fair, combining the back office functions between the two authorities while maintaining separate democratic functions wouldn't be difficult.
Its probably easier to make such changes in areas which are electorally similar.
As we plan, the feedback we are getting is juniors (often in shared flats with no garden) want to be back in the office while seniors (country / houses with gardens) don’t
I've heard that too - as you say, the young who live with parents or in shared accommodation prefer the office environment and the social aspects of work after work (drinking, meals out and the like).
Older colleagues (and I'm one) tend to be mostly much less keen - those with plenty of children are currently in favour but reason with the re-opening of schools in the autumn homeworking might be quite pleasant. Those without children are the most resistant. Home working is for many very attractive and has worked unexpectedly well.
No client I've dealt with is envisaging any kind of compulsion at this time - most think their limited offices can't cope with numbers so getting the younger staff back (who would be less at risk anyway) is the shrewd option leaving the more vulnerable staff at home. Almost all are doing some form of risk assessment to get numbers.
As I said earlier, very few want to come back at this time and messages regarding public transport aren't encouraging that either.
I think in time the people who don't want to work in the office will leave through early retirement, or will start going to the office again. There will probably be a vaccine by the end of next year so there will be no public health justification for not going to the office. Social distancing will also have to end after the epidemic is over. It is true that some people will still want to work from home, but employers will prefer staff who want to be involved in the organisation. This is more difficult to do if you do not come into the office. In time the proportion of people going to the office will increase and it may end up close to what it was before.
I think some people find it comforting to believe that the epidemic will never end, for some reason.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
Bloody stupid idea. Unitary authorities have always proven unpopular and most of them are very bad.
Of course that is not to say all is rosy in County councils. Northamptonshire springs to mind.
They are either too big eg cornwall or to small as happened in Berkshire. They do lose the sense of community representation and walk over existing preferred party administrations.
If they really want to rile all their supporters, there is no better way than smashing up the counties they live in.
Labour got a huge amount of grief for dividing up Cheshire. I’ve got cousins in Telford who go absolutely apeshit every time they’re reminded they’re no longer in Shropshire.
Heck, some people still haven’t forgiven Heath for the original reorganisation.
Do any of these people realise what this will do to the economy?
It's not their responsibility, of course, they can choose to work how they like, but if vast swathes of city workers do not return to office life, millions of dependant jobs will go - cafes, restaurants, sandwich bars, convenience stores, taxi services, public transport, petrol stations, on and on.
It will be a huge, brutal change and it will cost a large chunk of GDP, before things adapt to a new normal. And this on TOP of the costs of the pandemic itself
BRACE.
There will be winners and losers but capitalism's like that - it's brutal but it provides opportunities for the adroit and the adept.
Home deliveries for example have grown exponentially - will they continue? We know online retail has prospered. Some local retail will be fine - the corner shop will be all right and for the elderly and others the trip into town will still happen.
I do agree transport providers face a very uncertain future. For months, trains have run, virtually empty, generating no revenue for the operators but the track needs to be maintained. The buses in my part of London are quiet, the tube largely deserted.
Local pubs and cafes will be all right - people who work at home still have lunch. The city centre places will still be frequented by the young at the weekend.
As an aside, if I were a home designer I'd be cutting back on bedrooms in favour of a ready made home office space.
The suburban retail infrastructure might do well from this - perhaps a return to a more community-focussed retail.
Quite. People are still going to want to go out to dinner and go shopping, it's just that some of the resultant economic activity will move location. There'll be less economic activity in city centres, more in smaller towns and the countryside.
One could even view this as contributing significantly to the Government's agenda of rebalancing the economy away from London and the South East. If a large fraction of jobs which were done in big London office blocks can now be done from home then first of all London gets hollowed out, as a lot of activity moves into the Home Counties, and then some of that activity spreads, in turn, further out into the country to escape ludicrous house prices.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
I didn't know that.
Change usually produces more opponents than supporters in the short term at least.
Seems an odd thing to do in the middle of a crisis. Though it might hide some councils going bust.
If you've just cottoned onto this being a divisive issue in the SNP I may have to withdraw your PB Scotch expert membership.
The Irish Times have a diverting little article today about the removal of the statue of Queen Victoria which used to stand in Dublin in front of the Dáil and wasn't removed until 1948!
I found that amazing in the current context - the orthodoxy in recent days is that statue-toppling is a necessity and inevitability in the sort of circumstances that saw Irish independence from Britain - but apparently a statue of George II survived until 1937, Nelson until 1966 and there is still a statue of Prince Albert, and an arch commemorating the part played by the Royal Irish Fusiliers in the Second Boer War, if not others I haven't come across yet.
But the U.K. had the good sense to kick him out for his sins
I think that the RAC were astute enough to see the way the wind was blowing, and made King Billy a shareholder. An effective way of keeping their own business going.
I came across this great little graphic recently. You can click on every dot to see its destination.
What is striking is how many voyages were to the Islands, rather than North America. I think the life expectancy of a fieldhand was just a few years on the sugar plantations, due to disease and overwork, so constant importation needed.
On my admittedly not extensive reading on the Atlantic slave trade, the most chilling thing was that the commercial model was actually built on the absolute expectation that that the field hands' life expectancy would only be several years and they ran things on the basis that there would be a very high rate of attrition and replacement.
Of course I'm sure like the other great crime of the modern age that there's a whole area of denial that attributes these deaths to disease and scarcity of food about which nothing could be done.
What is going on in the SNP?!
Some huge internal stramash about trans rights.....?
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
Yes, that's where I am too. Tke PB Surrey Popular Front, eh?
But remember that times of crisis are also times of maximum leverage.
That's just the icing on the cake. In less than 2 months the enhanced unemployment benefit of $600 a week is going to be withdrawn - the GOP has 'no appetite' to replace it - and renters' protection from eviction is going at almost the same time.
In addition to Great Depression-like unemployment and tens of millions losing health insurance, there's going to be housing crisis of epic proportions.
Trump needs a miracle over the next 5 months to hang on.
and the Democrats if they win will sail straight in to a force 12 shitstorm
is this one of those elections to lose ?
No. The Republic will not survive four more years of Trump.
you know people who ought to know better have been parroting that line since the previous election
Amongst other things Trump was going to start WW3, create a fascist dictatorship, turn the USA in to a Russian vassal etc.
None of it happened
If he wins the USA will still be there in 2024
@rcs1000 can better phrase the damage Trump has done to the Republic than I can, but he has done some of it. The damage to democratic and western norms that Trump has wilfully done is not insignificant.
The recent Applebaum article is a must read for people who are sanguine about another 4 years of Trump.
The Democrats threatened 4 years of Freddie Kruger instead we got Yosemite Sam
The insight. The insight.
Mine's a pint.
Oh sorry. yes Trump evilest man ever worse than Hitler and Stalin, owns a plantation you know and his grandfather was Jefferson Davis etc.
Happy now ?
Now you're just being shallow and facetious.
Go forth and read.
well yes,but lets face it you having a sulk about me not reading an article you couldn't even be arsed to provide a link to has its own fun
I assumed you had read it.
Google throws it straight up so you can rectify if you haven't.
By the way, we're told that the Government plans to totally reorganise local government this autumn, abolshing all county councils and borough councils and replacing them by unitaries. I'm not necessarily opposed, but the timing seems curious to me - do they really feel short of things to think about at the moment?
There’s apparently a white paper on devolution due in October with local govt reorganisation on the lines you’ve outlined as a condition for more powers being transferred from the centre. What surprised me is that such fundamental reforms do not require new primary legislation and can be enacted under existing Ministerial powers.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
Yes, that's where I am too. Tke PB Surrey Popular Front, eh?
If you're looking for savings, I doubt the "three council" model will deliver much if anything. In truth, abolishing the 12 and replacing with one is probably the most cost effective.
You'd end up with 120-140 Councillors (perhaps) so a split between east and west Surrey (on the Sussex model) may be the more acceptable. To be fair, combining the back office functions between the two authorities while maintaining separate democratic functions wouldn't be difficult.
I'd merge Surrey with Kingston because that is where the headquarters are :=D .
Comments
And then, perhaps, to provide balance, you could provide is with a list of all the donations to the Conservative Party from the tax dodgers we have in our midst?
Heretical. But much cheaper.
Drawbacks: many.
Damage to west, and liberal democracy: huge.
Shits given: none.
Future Tory strategy: look west, across the ocean (culture WARRRRRRR)
Ho hum.
For small businesses its quite difficult to move locations without losing existing key staff.
But I do think you'd vote for Winstone over Khan for London Mayor.
Something just tells me that you would.
I came across this great little graphic recently. You can click on every dot to see its destination.
https://www.slavevoyages.org/voyage/database#timelapse
What is striking is how many voyages were to the Islands, rather than North America. I think the life expectancy of a fieldhand was just a few years on the sugar plantations, due to disease and overwork, so constant importation needed.
But I agree with you about "funny money" not being wealth - and that there are big changes coming to the workplace.
Bidens weakness is that he's doddery and old and speaks like he has dementia. Against anyone normal that'd be a real weakness.
Trump having those same symptoms essentially neutralises the fact Biden has them too. Which leaves Trumps strengths and weaknesses behind and Biden is pretty much (despite decades in politics) relatively inoffensive compared to eg Hillary last time.
Chatting to a senior engineer at Google in California, I gather they don't expect to go back to office working till the spring - if ever.
The closest, I believe, is Asil Nadir
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2012/aug/22/tories-return-donation-asil-nadir
My understanding is that:
- Michael Brown stole money from pensioners and some of that money was donated to the LibDems. Tge LibDems case was that it wasn’t possible to tell 100% whether those donations were from the stolen money or from the contractual fees Brown legitimately charged
- Polly Peck made donations to the Tories (presumably at the behest of its controlling shareholder). Said shareholder also (not sure if at the same time) defrauded the company which went bankrupt. The Tory case is that the donations were received legally from a company and were not donations by Nadir of money he had stolen from that company. (The equivalent to the LD argument would be if Nadir had made the donation directly and the Tories argued “well it may have been from his salary not the stolen money”)
Basically the LibDems behaved like schmucks
Starting tonight in Czechia, or the Czech Republic if you prefer, ANO, the party formed by Andrej Babis, leads with 32% (-2). The Pirates are second on 17% and the ODS party formed by Vaclav Klaus on 14% (+2). ANO's governing partners, the Social Democrats, are on 6% and in fourth we have the SPD, who aren't as you might think the Social Democrats but the Freedom & Direct Democracy Party which has 8%.
The next GE in Czechia is October 2021.
Not much change in Italy where Lega leads on 28%, ahead of the Social Democrats on 21% but M5S have dropped to fourth as the new kid on the block, the conservative Brothers of Italy (FdL) have gone third on 15%
In Austria, Kurz's OVP has dropped slightly but still has a massive lead polling 44% (-2), miles ahead of the SPO on 17% and the Greens on 16%.
Similar in Germany where the Union has hit 40% in the current Forsa poll with the Greens back second on 17% (+2) and the SPD third on 14% (-2). The FDP are back on 6% which must be a worry for the Union as if the FDP fails to get above 5% they'll be out of the Bundestag making life difficult in terms of finding a coalition partner.
Spain is more interesting with the governing PSOE on 27%, only just ahead of PP on 23% (+1). VOX have steadied to 15% in third with United Podemos on 12% and Citizens on 7%.
Finally, for now in Denmark, where the governing Social Democrats are on 33% (+1) with the leading opposition Venstre on 21% (-1) and a clutch of parties on 6-7%. The most interesting of these are the Nye Borgerlige (New Right), the successor to the old Fremskridtsparti - they want Denmark out of the EU and are up two points to six.
The governing centre-left bloc has a commanding advantage with 54% of the vote.
Change usually produces more opponents than supporters in the short term at least.
I’m also not a member of the Tory Party and don’t have access to their donors list
But I replied to @nichomar comparing and contrasting the Michael Brown and Asil Nadir cases which I think are probably the closest
There is one County and eleven District or Borough Councils and my understanding is relations between them haven't always been and aren't always harmonious.
Could the whole lot become a single Surrey Council (on the Cornwall model)? or would a split between west, central and east be possible?
Might be interesting to see how Surrey Conservatives react.
Mine's a pint.
I will look at in with interest if I ever see anything.
I’m really surprised that no one called that out as a conflict of interests
Of course I'm sure like the other great crime of the modern age that there's a whole area of denial that attributes these deaths to disease and scarcity of food about which nothing could be done.
Yes I know that you guys were happy being ruled over by a slaver, but shit happens
Happy now ?
As for Romford- it has red buses and metropolitan police. Of course it's London, and Andrew Rosindell is a chump for campaigning otherwise.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1272188213705297920?s=19
"Poor old Trumpy, I didn't realize" type thing.
So what happens to the people who worked in them.
Even if more jobs are created in the outer suburbs, commuter towns and rural areas they might not be of much use to the urban population.
Older colleagues (and I'm one) tend to be mostly much less keen - those with plenty of children are currently in favour but reason with the re-opening of schools in the autumn homeworking might be quite pleasant. Those without children are the most resistant. Home working is for many very attractive and has worked unexpectedly well.
No client I've dealt with is envisaging any kind of compulsion at this time - most think their limited offices can't cope with numbers so getting the younger staff back (who would be less at risk anyway) is the shrewd option leaving the more vulnerable staff at home. Almost all are doing some form of risk assessment to get numbers.
As I said earlier, very few want to come back at this time and messages regarding public transport aren't encouraging that either.
I have my doubts on this timescale and extent, not least as it might entail yet another cancellation of elections in May 2021. It will cause an almighty outcry from many (Tory) councillors seeing their seats and councils disappear. Personally, for Surrey (where we both represent) I could live with three unitaries, and at a stretch two, but having the present County Council as the sole principal authority might be too big an ask.
Biden does not have this handicap.
I believe Hillary had a lot of issues hanging around her neck.
Her sex was not one of them
If there are fewer elected council posts available that means fewer will bother to campaign
I seem to have some vague recollection of this being tried many years ago here in Hertfordshire, where we have a county and ten districts. The plan was to create three unitaries. Save for the county council itself, only one of the districts opposed it - North Herts, presumably on account of the fact that the local Tories didn't really fancy being turned into a permanent minority in a proposed unitary dominated by Labour Stevenage, which they suspect would've neglected the villages and market towns whilst using them as a cash machine.
I would expect similar objections this time around.
But I was referring to the difference between Lord Alfred Tennyson and Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Go forth and read.
I want to make sure none of those thunder fucks are involved with Biden.
Home deliveries for example have grown exponentially - will they continue? We know online retail has prospered. Some local retail will be fine - the corner shop will be all right and for the elderly and others the trip into town will still happen.
I do agree transport providers face a very uncertain future. For months, trains have run, virtually empty, generating no revenue for the operators but the track needs to be maintained. The buses in my part of London are quiet, the tube largely deserted.
Local pubs and cafes will be all right - people who work at home still have lunch. The city centre places will still be frequented by the young at the weekend.
As an aside, if I were a home designer I'd be cutting back on bedrooms in favour of a ready made home office space.
The suburban retail infrastructure might do well from this - perhaps a return to a more community-focussed retail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0fqRS94cwA
Thinking ‘how much nicer’ things would be if there was a genocide is - rather disturbing.
You said for the poster not to call you Lord Charles because you were not the son of an earl.
But the son of an earl wouldn't be called Lord Charles.
That's all.
It exposed how badly fucked up and crony riddled his administration was.
Just because Trump is appalling don't forget that Bush was bloody awful.
Of course that is not to say all is rosy in County councils. Northamptonshire springs to mind.
I couldn't possibly comment.
You'd end up with 120-140 Councillors (perhaps) so a split between east and west Surrey (on the Sussex model) may be the more acceptable. To be fair, combining the back office functions between the two authorities while maintaining separate democratic functions wouldn't be difficult.
North West Surrey: Surrey Heath, Woking, Elmbridge, Runneymede and Spelthorne
South West Surrey: Guildford and Waverley
East Surrey: Mole Valley, Epsom and Ewell, Reigate and Banstead, and Tandridge
I think some people find it comforting to believe that the epidemic will never end, for some reason.
Labour got a huge amount of grief for dividing up Cheshire. I’ve got cousins in Telford who go absolutely apeshit every time they’re reminded they’re no longer in Shropshire.
Heck, some people still haven’t forgiven Heath for the original reorganisation.
One could even view this as contributing significantly to the Government's agenda of rebalancing the economy away from London and the South East. If a large fraction of jobs which were done in big London office blocks can now be done from home then first of all London gets hollowed out, as a lot of activity moves into the Home Counties, and then some of that activity spreads, in turn, further out into the country to escape ludicrous house prices.
WW2 and the Welfare State etc?
Google throws it straight up so you can rectify if you haven't.
Needs 15 mins though.