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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Weighing up the Biden VP pick betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Weighing up the Biden VP pick betting
There has been article overnight that appears to be well-informed with those close to the matter that Biden’s choice for VP candidate has narrowed down to six candidates. Elizabeth Warren, Susan Rice and Kamala Harris are specifically mentioned, while the comments suggest that the other three advisors have looked closely at Val Demings, Keisha Lance Bottoms and Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico.
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Because it's there.
This is a little vid that @DougSeal might enjoy (if Vimeo embeds).
You can see it is made by a techno-nerd not an artiste. The frame on the left is displaying 75 photos a second.
https://vimeo.com/35507705
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1271810824840110080
Bit different from last weeks headline.
The contract is for 400 million doses of the potential vaccine, which is being developed with the University of Oxford in the UK. Its experimentation phase is expected to end this autumn.
That chap was using a Canon 1D 15 years ago - £5k camera, and set off with a goal of photographing every significant detail of every rural parish church and all of the buildings in Pevsner.
Mad as a premeditated hatter.
Yes there are the usual loudmouth shaven headed tattooed idiots, but there are also decorated veterans and green berets that look like they might be Royal Marines....???
Following the science...https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1271819903809605633
https://www.britainexpress.com/counties/kent/churches/brook.htm
The history behind one of the few exchanges of fire in anger on British soil in WW2.
https://theconversation.com/black-troops-were-welcome-in-britain-but-jim-crow-wasnt-the-race-riot-of-one-night-in-june-1943-98120
https://twitter.com/ryanhermens/status/1271793372517236737
Kentucky wasn't part of the Confederacy.
For the first time I'm worried about the future of this country, our failure to confront last week's reactionaries will have wide ranging repercussions for a long time to come.
Scot: 33 (6/million)
England: 1122 (20/million)
Death rate in England 3.5x higher in last week than Scot. Scottish Government
decision to take a cautious approach for last month has clearly now been vindicated.
The first year in the US with no recorded lynchings was 1952. (Wiki)
All vaccines kill someone. Vaccination always carries some risk (usually extremely small) to any individual. When you vaccinate billions of people, you always kill some people. Usually the very elderly and vulnerable.
If you vaccinate billions of people with a new and rushed vaccine, then the death toll may not be so small.
(As always, the optimum strategy for any one vulnerable person is NOT to get vaccinated, but let everyone else take the tiny risk and get vaccinated. But, I expect Governments will make it compulsory, if they can).
FWIW, I think the vaccine will work at some level, probably for normal healthy adults. The largely undiscussed question is will at work for the people who really need it, the very elderly and those with pre-existing medical issues.
Thanks for posting.
Positive tests 1,425
Deaths 181
Positive tests number so so I would say - lower than same day last week (1,557) but above yesterday's 7 day rolling average (1,326).
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths
I recommend (the Telegraph’s) Ed Clowes’ twitter feed, which gives a good, and slightly bemused, account of what’s going on.
https://twitter.com/EdClowes/status/1271787142377865220
I am sure that was not the wording or even close. But that was the basic message being given.
https://twitter.com/soledadobrien/status/1271475483809665025
I can also recommend 'The Street Sweeper' by Elliot Perlman. It's an extraordinary work of fiction (and a tough, unflinching read in places) that has, as one of its core themes, the impact on black GIs of witnessing first hand liberated death camps, and the impact this had on the civil rights movement when they got back to the US.
White American troops arrive later, and resent the good relationships the Black troops have established with the locals.
The situation is exacerbated when someone (IIRC from the military press or Pr) is sent to the town to see how things are going an an old man in the pub, when asked 'How do you get on with the Americans?" And replies that he likes them, very good men. 'I don't like these new white ones though".
I can recall that clearly.
Shute wrote the book in 1945/6
They mentioned Gina Raimondo
This week I stood up for Baden Powell's statue in Poole. But I am so pleased that it was entirely peaceful throughout.
I'm not excusing either last week or this week in Town, to be clear. I am similarly in despair over it.
Positive tests: 1425, 1557, 2445, 2959, 3451, 3896, 4806
Deaths: 181, 204, 226, 282, 468, 346*, 621
* Reduced by Friday 08/05 being a bank holiday.
What looks pretty clear is that the Dominic Cummings story did not lead to an increase in infection.
Thanks for flagging though
- We know that some people spread the virus far more than others. R is famously an average; the superspreaders drive it up. It's not that mysterious as to why it should be so; there are a number of important variables:
1 - Some people have wider circles of friends and acquaintances and are in closer contact with more people more often. The more people you are in contact with per day, the more opportunities for infection.
2 - The presymptomatic (but infectious) period varies between a day or two and up to a fortnight (averaging around 4-5 days). The longer the presymptomatic period, the more opportunities for infection
3 - The personal space preferred by different people varies (some are huggier and kissier; some are more standoffish). The closer you get, the more chance of infection.
4 - There may be other factors, such as a higher viral load, that can act to make you more infectious.
Anyone for whom those variables are all over to the high side will likely be a superspreader. It's all a factor of statistics and luck, and these people are the ones who unknowingly stack the deck in favour of the virus.
Of those, variables 1 and 3, as well as making you more likely to spread the disease, make you more likely to get the disease.
There's a fifth variable as well: carelessness. Some months ago, my eldest daughter's long-term boyfriend split up with her. We were sad about this; he'd been a part of the household for years.
Early in the pandemic, we learned he'd contracted covid-19. It flattened him for weeks, and he's had a prolonged issue with lung capacity ever since (he's a healthy, fit 26-year-old).
We all said to ourselves when we learned he'd had it: if anyone was going to get it, he would. He's famously careless and blase about many things and he'd probably caught it due to not taking care over social distancing.
So - those who are prone to be superspreaders, and those who are the most careless (and especially those who are both careless and prone to be superspreaders) are most likely to catch it early.
If the careless and the superspreaders (and the careless superspreaders) were the ones most likely to contract it before and during lockdown (push the chances of catching it down and these are the most likely by far to get it), then their ability to spread it was very limited while they had the window. In short, the residual R number may (and I stress the "may") be now be significantly lower - if the superspreaders are concentrated in the 5%, or 10%, or 15% or however many have already had it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoot_Suit_Riots
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
We will ignore the media amplify the nonsense message that racism is currently a more dangerous virus than covid, which is far more harmful public health message to BAME communities than if Big Dom went for a whizz on the M1.
I'd say that aged pretty well.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8416805/Thousands-Britons-set-break-barbeques-time-lockdown-easing-allowed.html
Result next UK GE - best prices
No Overall Majority 11/8
Conservative Majority 2/1
Labour Majority 9/4
Lib Dem Majority 33/1
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1271838917034213384
I'd far rather the police err slightly on the side of tolerance than overreaction in the current circumstances. We've seen what escalation can lead to in the US.
My impression of the London policing is that they've done a very difficult job pretty well over the last week or so, and I applaud them for it.
https://twitter.com/EdClowes/status/1271792544842756097
Presumably some BLM bloke doing this last week gave him the idea.
https://twitter.com/JazBlunder/status/1271842229515104265?s=20
https://twitter.com/VinnieoDowd/status/1271809857507770376
Superspreaders seem to require the right environment (conferences; nightclubs; call centres; restaurants; choirs etc) and/or the ability to move around a lot between groups of people. I don't think there's anything particularly special about the individuals concerned, other than that they probably fall in the percentage of those with the virus who shed a fairly large amount of it.
Current policies, during and after lockdown, are for the time being denying them the venues for spreading it.
Unlike you, I don't attempt to minimize or excuse obvious criminal behaviour by protesters. If they break the law, then they should have the book thrown at them.
Risible.
The populist thing to do would be easy here. Do what industry and his MPs are all asking and loosen the 2m rule. That would be easy.
But I think after his own near death experience he is genuinely trying to contain this and follow the science. So if he doesn't think it's safe he's not doing the populist thing. For once.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/12/coronavirus-italy-prosecutors-question-pm-giuseppe-conte-over-lockdown-delay
These thugs attacking police is sickening and they should be hunted down and prosecuted. But your hypocrisy is pretty sickening as well.
I have to say that if the police are going to prevent the filming of disturbances I think it is a good thing as it takes away the oxygen of publicity
Also the 5.00pm dispersal notice is completely justified
It is time Boris, Patel, Khan and the Commissioner got together and enforced covid requirements and put a stop to this happening every weekend
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/13/nigerias-wto-candidate-looks-to-bridge-the-us-china-schism-316311
...Iweala acknowledged there was a gulf to address between what richer and poorer developing nations were getting out of the globalized trading system.
“The developed country members feel they have borne the burden of liberalization and maybe the advanced developing countries should bear more. The least developed countries feel they could benefit more from the system,” she said.
More broadly, she argued that the WTO had failed to keep up with the times. “The WTO needs to be brought up to the 21st century. Some of the rules are outdated and they don't reflect the significant developments in the global economy. Issues such as the digital economy, competition policy, investment, climate change and environment, they all need to be addressed.”
She stressed that her experience from two stints as Nigeria’s finance minister had given her the political skills to broker big trade-offs in Geneva. She also argued her background as a development economist convinced her of the value of trade — as opposed to aid — as a way of lifting countries out of poverty...
Neighbour volunteered to go , his lot were doing 350 and younger fellow other side , GE are looking at 400 at airport. Surely be a lot not going back to work.