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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125
    edited June 2020

    These protests, both here, in europe, and worldwide should give a good insight into just how virolent covid is and if no spikes, it is likely lockdown will be over

    And there could be worse ways to end it, if that is the case.

    However, it’s much more likely it will lead to a second spike and an even more devastating lockdown.

    All lives matter. They are risking far too many of them from both Covid and devastation.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Forget who wondered yesterday whether US TV procedurals would be jumping right into the George Floyd issue, but clearly they will:

    https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/law-order-svu-george-floyd-death-coronavirus-pandemic-new-season
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,200

    The reason Duffield's story isn't running is because Cummingsgate was a political hit job led by the Blob that hates him for what he did to them in 2016 and 2019. The moment Gardiner and Duffield's far worse transgressions became a story, the Blob ran a million miles in the opposite direction and pretended they'd never heard of lockdown before :lol:
    It's a theory.

    Alternatively, it's because Duffield acknowledged that she was in the wrong and didn't go to absurd contortions to justify her actions. Same way that Bob Seeley's barbeque will be a 12 hour wonder.

    “A soft word turns away wrath, but a harsh word stirs up anger” and all that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834
    MattW said:

    Are you sure about that? It's still hugely quiet in this area.

    There are eg more people planning to go back to work though June / July, but it is all being done slowly and carefully.
    Shops are not open yet, but within the next fortnight most will be.

    Traffic noticeably busier on my way to work and back now. Much the same now as school holiday traffic in the mornings.

    Reasonable efforts at mask wearing and social distancing at the Leicester BLM protest.


    https://twitter.com/2smartmonkeys/status/1269280486741991425?s=09
  • glwglw Posts: 10,315

    The worst / most misleading initial stat report was 80% only get mild symptoms. The author of the report that is taken from now regrets using it. Mild includes everything up to the worst thing you ever had that didn't require the hospital to save you. On top of that, we now know how this virus can f##k all your vital organs, but away i don't think this is widely known.

    Exactly, it's not just a fever and cough. I'm sure that people would be more wary if they thought that catching it might lead to a lifetime of heart or kidney problems.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    These protests, both here, in europe, and worldwide should give a good insight into just how virulent covid is and if no spikes, it is likely lockdown will be over

    I think my wife and I will remain in voluntary lockdown anyway for the next two to three weeks

    That`s interesting BigG - previously you had talked about staying in voluntary lockdown for, I think, 3/4 years to your 60th wedding anniversary. Does this reflect a slight decrease in concern?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Carnyx said:

    Actually, those come out of the pro rata budget allocated under Barnett. We just spend it differently to the English. (And much of the prescriptions cost comes out of the savings made on eliminating the bureaucracy.)

    In 2018/19, public spending per person in the UK as a whole was £9,584. In England, it was £9,296 (3% below the UK average). This compares with:

    Scotland: £11,247 (17% above the UK average)
    Wales: £10,656 (11% above the UK average)
    Northern Ireland £11,590 (21% above the UK average).

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04033/

    Scotland has more money to spend and can afford these additional choices primarily because it is heavily subsidised, despite being reasonably well-off. Scottish per capita GDP, at £29,660 according to the most recently published figures, exceeds that of all other comparable statistical regions of the UK outside the south-eastern quadrant of England.

    The continued existence of the defective Barnett formula is not, of course, Scotland's fault in any way, shape or form, but this doesn't change the fact that it exists. My original point wasn't to have a pop at Scotland but to dig around the rotten foundations of the Union.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    Well I hope the vaccine from that second rate institution comes good, as we are going to need it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    The protests are young people & outdoors so reckless thouh they are to Covid spread they might not produce the second spike that mass indoor contact could create.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    I expect they would. But if lockdown hadn't already been trashed by the government, far more people would be considering other ways of protesting here than meeting up in confined spaces and far more people would feel able to point to the responsibilities we have to keep up that good work.
    For an intelligent person you do talk some bollocks.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    Pulpstar said:

    The protests are young people & outdoors so reckless thouh they are to Covid spread they might not produce the second spike that mass indoor contact could create.

    Yeah, they're actually doing us a bit of a favour as it's quite a good test of what spreads the virus and what doesn't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834

    It's a theory.

    Alternatively, it's because Duffield acknowledged that she was in the wrong and didn't go to absurd contortions to justify her actions. Same way that Bob Seeley's barbeque will be a 12 hour wonder.

    “A soft word turns away wrath, but a harsh word stirs up anger” and all that.
    I see at Bob Seeleys lockdown bbq, Ms Oakshott was present, and indicated that she had travelled to her second home on the Island before.

    I have a clear conscience about my own visit this week to see grandma.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    ydoethur said:

    You really are tribal fool. You don’t care about laws, you care about your side. A side that bears a distinctly uncomfortable resemblance to the Corbynistas.

    I criticise Duffield. I criticise these protestors. I criticise Cummings.

    But you cannot bring yourself to criticise Cummings.
    You're a reasonable person; the Blob (lefty/Remainery politicos, media, public sector) are not. I therefore extend them as much consideration and quarter as they extend to me: none.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,425
    dixiedean said:

    Amusing to note the opening goal for FC Porto was scored by...
    Jesus Corona.

    Jesus! Corona??
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    glw said:

    There was an interesting comment on the radio this morning about the long-term effects of COVID-19. It implied that we could be looking at hundreds of thousands of people with new chronic health problems, some of them quite serious, and many of them will be relatively young people as it's the immune response doing a lot of the damage.

    The assumption that being young, fit, and healthy means that COVID-19 is "just like the flu" may prove to be tragically wrong.
    The problem is that many people want it to not be an issue so focus solely on the death rates.
    Derek Draper, for one, does not show up on the death rates.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,878

    The worst / most misleading initial stat report was 80% only get mild symptoms. The author of the report that is taken from now regrets using it. Mild includes everything up to the worst thing you ever had that didn't require the hospital to save you. On top of that, we now know how this virus can f##k all your vital organs, but i don't think this is widely known.
    There are suggestions it can have a devastating effect on the brains of people who haven't even been infected.

    Though it hasn't been ruled out that the brains in question may already have been useless even before COVID-19 emerged.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Interestingly, no obvioius reports of large (ifany?) BLM demos in Scotland today - and it's a nice sunny day for many after earlier showers. The appeals by Ms Sturgeon and her SNP and Green and Labour colleagues may have had some impact in terms of people respecting the ongoing ban on large gatherings.

    And we are now seeing covid stowaways in the ferries ...

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18500769.calmac-discover-golfers-hiding-vans-attempt-evade-lockdown-rules-travel-scots-islands/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    For an intelligent person you do talk some bollocks.
    As I noted below:

    "Example is not the main thing in influencing others. It is the only thing."

    Albert Schweitzer, Nobel Peace Prize winner, if you're interested. Who, incidentally, knew a fair bit about treating diseases.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,162
    ydoethur said:

    You really are tribal fool. You don’t care about laws, you care about your side. A side that bears a distinctly uncomfortable resemblance to the Corbynistas.

    I criticise Duffield. I criticise these protestors. I criticise Cummings.

    But you cannot bring yourself to criticise Cummings.
    You simultaneously argue that Cummings shouldn't be important because he's an idiot, and that he's so important that thousands of people are ignoring the rules because of him.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    Stocky said:

    Crikey - that`s utilitarianism on speed. I think the opposite. B is a racist, A is not. It`s what you believe inside that matters. I do detect a strong utilitarianism on the left, which I think is a mistake.

    Edit: now I see why you hate Johnson so much.
    Well I'm more making the argument that behaviour counts more than belief. I think it does.

    My example is a bit extreme and absolutist. It rejects "I think therefore I am" in favour of "I communicate therefore I am".

    Which actually doesn't work because it implies that if somebody removed all of my ability to communicate - "We wish", I hear resounding - then I would be null and void. And of course I wouldn't be. I'd still be a hard left social democrat but a silent one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    edited June 2020
    tlg86 said:

    Yeah, they're actually doing us a bit of a favour as it's quite a good test of what spreads the virus and what doesn't.
    As long as they don't live at home with mum / dad / grandad. As that is exactly how it spread in Northern Italy. All the young folk socialize in Milan in the week, spread it among themselves and then headed back to family home at weekends and killed off nonno.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited June 2020
    Chris said:

    There are suggestions it can have a devastating effect on the brains of people who haven't even been infected.

    Though it hasn't been ruled out that the brains in question may already have been useless even before COVID-19 emerged.
    It's certainly causing partial deafness in some - someone here yesterday posted a ref to a very alarming study on people who hadn't even been symptomatic (till they had a hearing test).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951
    ydoethur said:

    And there could be worse ways to end it, if that is the case.

    However, it’s much more likely it will lead to a second spike and an even more devastating lockdown.

    All lives matter. They are risking far too many of them from both Covid and devastation.
    Such a good post
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    Carnyx said:

    Interestingly, no obvioius reports of large (ifany?) BLM demos in Scotland today - and it's a nice sunny day for many after earlier showers. The appeals by Ms Sturgeon and her SNP and Green and Labour colleagues may have had some impact in terms of people respecting the ongoing ban on large gatherings.

    And we are now seeing covid stowaways in the ferries ...

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18500769.calmac-discover-golfers-hiding-vans-attempt-evade-lockdown-rules-travel-scots-islands/

    Isn't the big BLM event in Edinburgh scheduled for tomorrow?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951
    Stocky said:

    That`s interesting BigG - previously you had talked about staying in voluntary lockdown for, I think, 3/4 years to your 60th wedding anniversary. Does this reflect a slight decrease in concern?
    If I did say that, and my memory is not the best, I think I may have been joking !!!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,749
    I wouldn't expect Cummings to be a noticed news story this week.

    A more interesting comparison would be if the question "do you know who Dominic Cummings is?" had been asked both today and back, say, in March.

    I'd guess around 80-90% now know who he is, compared with maybe 10% a couple of months ago. His new-found fame prepares him well for his next appearance in the news. A Spad really shouldn't be so well known.

    Timing is also important in respect of Cummings. His actions were right at the start of lockdown, when compliance was pretty much universal. Duffield, Gardiner etc. were much later, when clearly things were slipping. Not an excuse, but an observation.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    As I noted below:

    "Example is not the main thing in influencing others. It is the only thing."

    Albert Schweitzer, Nobel Peace Prize winner, if you're interested. Who, incidentally, knew a fair bit about treating diseases.
    So, in an alternative universe where the Cummings affair either didn't happen or they sacked him straight away, you think either:

    1) the BLM protests wouldn't be happening - I think this is ridiculously unlikely.
    2) the politicians would be telling the police to arrest them with the support of media personalities such as Piers Morgan.

    I'm sorry, but we now live in a world where no one is prepared to stand up to groups like BLM. There is not chance that the world would be any different without the Cummings affair.

    Now, if the government has to lockdown again later in the year, you might have a point if more people "do a Cummings/Sean T" and fuck off to their second homes.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,376
    Oh well, there goes lockdown. How are you gonna keep 'em down on the farm after they're seen them crowds?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Isn't the big BLM event in Edinburgh scheduled for tomorrow?
    So it is, on checking - I hadn't realised there is a series of them. Well spotted.

    One small and very partial consolation is that it's in Holyrood Park [huge open space under Arthur's Seat].
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269
    edited June 2020
    Foxy said:

    Shops are not open yet, but within the next fortnight most will be.

    Traffic noticeably busier on my way to work and back now. Much the same now as school holiday traffic in the mornings.

    Reasonable efforts at mask wearing and social distancing at the Leicester BLM protest.

    https://twitter.com/2smartmonkeys/status/1269280486741991425?s=09
    Falls in transport usage are instructive. A reasonable chunk of that rise in motor usage is the fall in buses and trains.

    Knowing the normal modal stats, I would say we are back at perhaps 40-45% of usual activity. Bus / train are normally just under 20% of the total, and cars about 65%.

    That's a growth back, but still very much quieter.

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1269285894957268992
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427
    ydoethur said:

    You really are tribal fool. You don’t care about laws, you care about your side. A side that bears a distinctly uncomfortable resemblance to the Corbynistas.

    I criticise Duffield. I criticise these protestors. I criticise Cummings.

    But you cannot bring yourself to criticise Cummings.
    The reason Duffield's story isn't running is because she put her hand up and accepted her 'guilt'.
    Cummings just put up two fingers.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    As long as they don't live at home with mum / dad / grandad. As that is exactly how it spread in Northern Italy. All the young folk socialize in Milan in the week, spread it among themselves and then headed back to family home at weekends and killed off nonno.
    To be honest, I couldn't give a fuck. I think I'm unlikely to come into contact with any of the people who have been protesting.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    kjh said:

    It is difficult to believe that such a person could exist. No matter how hard they behaved to not show or act in any racist way, they would still do so because of subconscious activity I would argue. Also why would someone be a racist in thought only. I could understand that being the case in public, but in private?
    If they were a racist - the noun being stronger if you've noticed - then I think you're right.

    But if they were just plagued by racist thoughts at times, which they recognize as wrong and to be fought, then I would say it's quite likely there will be no external expression. Not even to nearest and dearest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    tlg86 said:

    So, in an alternative universe where the Cummings affair either didn't happen or they sacked him straight away, you think either:

    1) the BLM protests wouldn't be happening - I think this is ridiculously unlikely.
    2) the politicians would be telling the police to arrest them with the support of media personalities such as Piers Morgan.

    I'm sorry, but we now live in a world where no one is prepared to stand up to groups like BLM. There is not chance that the world would be any different without the Cummings affair.

    Now, if the government has to lockdown again later in the year, you might have a point if more people "do a Cummings/Sean T" and fuck off to their second homes.
    Piers Moron stooping to Big Dom level of excuses to defend his son after going batshit crazy at the sight of anybody even seen bending the rules.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    Carnyx said:

    So it is, on checking - I hadn't realised there is a series of them. Well spotted.

    One small and very partial consolation is that it's in Holyrood Park [huge open space under Arthur's Seat].
    A few friends live and work in Edinburgh, they are a bit worried about going to work tomorrow and might have to interact with protesters who haven't in engaged in good social distancing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951
    Carnyx said:

    So it is, on checking - I hadn't realised there is a series of them. Well spotted.

    One small and very partial consolation is that it's in Holyrood Park [huge open space under Arthur's Seat].
    It is where I did my courting in the early sixties.

    Can be very cold !!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    tlg86 said:

    To be honest, I couldn't give a fuck. I think I'm unlikely to come into contact with any of the people who have been protesting.
    You sure?

    The lot that usually protest at these sorts of events are hideously middle class.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,878

    These protests, both here, in europe, and worldwide should give a good insight into just how virulent covid is and if no spikes, it is likely lockdown will be over

    They'll give no such thing, considering they're mostly outdoors.

    Why anyone should think an infectious disease would magically stop being infectious just because we've managed to limit its spread by dint of keeping most of the population indoors for several months, is beyond me.

    Quite how severe the restrictions need to be to control it may not be clear, but anyone who thinks we can just go back to normal needs psychiatric advice.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited June 2020

    It is where I did my courting in the early sixties.

    Can be very cold !!
    [ignore - wrong met] - tomorrow basically overcast with a N-NE wind, feels fairly cool.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    So, in an alternative universe where the Cummings affair either didn't happen or they sacked him straight away, you think either:

    1) the BLM protests wouldn't be happening - I think this is ridiculously unlikely.
    2) the politicians would be telling the police to arrest them with the support of media personalities such as Piers Morgan.

    I'm sorry, but we now live in a world where no one is prepared to stand up to groups like BLM. There is not chance that the world would be any different without the Cummings affair.

    Now, if the government has to lockdown again later in the year, you might have a point if more people "do a Cummings/Sean T" and fuck off to their second homes.
    No, in that alternative universe I don't expect either 1 or 2 would be happening. I expect that 3 would be happening, which would comprise the government, probably through Rishi Sunak or Priti Patel, appealing to the public to mark Black Lives Matter in a way that did not break rules and that the government would receive the message most powerfully if protesters observed that.

    The government would have retained the moral authority to do this and more of the public would have listened.

    Instead, I have a biology graduate sending me live links on Facebook to her participation in a BLM demonstration today.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    FWIW my friend who works at a supermarket right smack bang in the middle of Piccadilly Gardens says plenty of the protestors have Dom Cummings facemasks and/or 'Out for an eye test' banners/t shirts.

    Most of them are engaging in good social distancing.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    MattW said:

    Falls in transport usage are instructive. A reasonable chunk of that rise in motor usage is the fall in buses and trains.

    Knowing the normal modal stats, I would say we are back at perhaps 40-45% of usual activity. Bus / train are normally just under 20% of the total, and cars about 65%.

    That's a growth back, but still very much quieter.

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1269285894957268992
    Tube, rail, and bus use still low (as of early this week, anyway). That's going to be helpful.

    (Yes, I know this is a straw)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,376
    It's lucky they're wearing tjhose magic masks, isn't it? The ones with tight-fitting HEPA filters, the ones they don't touch with their hands ever so they don't spread it over everything they handle afterwards. The ones with 'I'm immortal' written on them. Science? Who needs it when you know better?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    No, in that alternative universe I don't expect either 1 or 2 would be happening. I expect that 3 would be happening, which would comprise the government, probably through Rishi Sunak or Priti Patel, appealing to the public to mark Black Lives Matter in a way that did not break rules and that the government would receive the message most powerfully if protesters observed that.

    The government would have retained the moral authority to do this and more of the public would have listened.

    Instead, I have a biology graduate sending me live links on Facebook to her participation in a BLM demonstration today.
    There are other untainted politicians who aren't exactly telling them as it is:

    https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1269265418281238530
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    I suppose you can only judge on what's put in front of you. If an impeccably mediocre and uncontroversial politician was discovered to enjoy wearing a bedsheet and pointy white hat while watching Birth of a Nation over & over again in the privacy of their own home, it would probably be game over for them. Until that point, they remain an impeccably mediocre and uncontroversial politician, probaby with a good chance of being in a BJ cabinet.
    This is utterly meant without prejudice or mischief and I say it only because it happened and it surprised me -

    As I read that I pictured Michael Gove.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    You sure?

    The lot that usually protest at these sorts of events are hideously middle class.
    Good job I'm not. :wink:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,138
    ...

    No, in that alternative universe I don't expect either 1 or 2 would be happening. I expect that 3 would be happening, which would comprise the government, probably through Rishi Sunak or Priti Patel, appealing to the public to mark Black Lives Matter in a way that did not break rules and that the government would receive the message most powerfully if protesters observed that.

    The government would have retained the moral authority to do this and more of the public would have listened.

    Instead, I have a biology graduate sending me live links on Facebook to her participation in a BLM demonstration today.
    Blackout Tuesday was that way
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    glw said:

    Exactly, it's not just a fever and cough. I'm sure that people would be more wary if they thought that catching it might lead to a lifetime of heart or kidney problems.
    Set against that, of course, is the tremendous problem of not knowing how long this is going to drag on for. A vaccine or an effective treatment might take years to develop or might never come along at all - and in the meantime people are being entreated to be so afraid of the virus that they hide in their individual brick boxes and don't come out unless it's unavoidable. That just isn't sustainable.

    There will be a significant fraction of the population that, for whatever reason (be it that they are shielding, or very old, or just very afraid,) will tough this out for as long as possible. But there'll also be an awful lot of people - including some older and more vulnerable ones - who will be thinking that they would rather like to live a little before they die, and would prefer to get out there and take their chances than endure a mere existence, by permission of anxious healthcare practitioners, that might continue forever.

    Spending ten weeks holed up in your flat waiting patiently to escape is one thing. The prospect of spending ten years incarcerated and wondering if you're going to die, whether of a non-Covid ailment or from the effects of advanced old age, before it's "safe" to start living a full life again is another prospect entirely.

    A life-altering illness is a big deal, but so is imprisonment. It's society's weapon of choice against serious convicted criminals for a reason. And at least most of them have some idea of when they're going to be released.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    tlg86 said:

    Good job I'm not. :wink:
    Well horrendously middle and upper class sorts frequent those sorts of events.

    I mean you're guaranteed at least one Tarquin at every BLM protest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    edited June 2020
    The big element which will hopefully keep R below 1 here is the WFH guidance if you can do so. That's millions of people avoiding extra contact.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    No, in that alternative universe I don't expect either 1 or 2 would be happening. I expect that 3 would be happening, which would comprise the government, probably through Rishi Sunak or Priti Patel, appealing to the public to mark Black Lives Matter in a way that did not break rules and that the government would receive the message most powerfully if protesters observed that.

    The government would have retained the moral authority to do this and more of the public would have listened.

    Instead, I have a biology graduate sending me live links on Facebook to her participation in a BLM demonstration today.
    The idea that your, er, politically-engaged biology graduate wouldn't have gone to her precious demonstrations whether or not Dominic Cummings had ever existed is utterly laughable.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    ydoethur said:

    Ah, Schrodinger’s racism.

    The answer is yes, but it is the impact that we have to measure.

    From that point of view I would in practice agree with you. My point is however that racist thoughts are still racist. However we - fortunately - do not judge people by what they think, only by what they do.
    Yes. Mr B is racist too - strictly speaking - but Mr A is the one to worry about.

    That's what I'm getting at really.

    Also why I think politicians who whip up racism are the pits and it matters very little if they do not themselves believe what they say. In fact, in a sense, this makes it worse because it's more cynical.

    If we have to have politicians whipping up racism, it's better if they are actually proper racists - would be the more challenging way of putting it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The idea that your, er, politically-engaged biology graduate wouldn't have gone to her precious demonstrations whether or not Dominic Cummings had ever existed is utterly laughable.
    Unlike you, she is not an exclusively political partisan being. I'm reasonably confident that she could have been dissuaded.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027
    edited June 2020

    It's on 6% most-noticed. The crime of the century, the ultimate downfall of Cummings, Boris, Brexit, the universe...

    6% noticed it.
    The story is over as there have been no new developments doesn't mean that it has had no lasting impact.

    Less than 1% noticed Brexit, so are you concluding that Brexit has had no long-term impact?

    The endless lengths you ago to to tell us that the Cummings story is irrelevant leads me to believe that you actually believe the exact opposite.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    Unlike you, she is not an exclusively political partisan being. I'm reasonably confident that she could have been dissuaded.
    How old are these people?! They'll only do the "right thing" if the government has the moral authority to tell them to do so? Utterly bizarre.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    tlg86 said:

    How old are these people?! They'll only do the "right thing" if the government has the moral authority to tell them to do so? Utterly bizarre.
    They are toddlers. Moral and intellectual toddlers who will only do the right thing if a big boy does it first.

    For the first time ever I have genuine respect for David Lammy, who made clear on Question Time that he wouldn't be participating in the demonstrations, because '[you can't] one week condemn Dominic Cummings for travelling up the country and the next go out [and protest]'.

    Not just not a hypocrite, but an anti-hypocrite, at least this time. Well done that man!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125
    Andy_JS said:

    You simultaneously argue that Cummings shouldn't be important because he's an idiot, and that he's so important that thousands of people are ignoring the rules because of him.
    I argue that he is important, and should not be.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    The last three times PBers called a new spike (April warm spell, both May warm spells), it didn’t happen.

  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,093
    ydoethur said:

    Are you Ankaring after a pun?
    He was, but it disappeared in a pouffe of smoke!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,136
    tlg86 said:

    Yeah, they're actually doing us a bit of a favour as it's quite a good test of what spreads the virus and what doesn't.
    Yes. Would be hard to argue against outdoor sport spectators if shouts at protests aren't spreading the virus.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,878

    Set against that, of course, is the tremendous problem of not knowing how long this is going to drag on for. A vaccine or an effective treatment might take years to develop or might never come along at all ...
    Based on your expert opinion?

    Oh, the blessings of the Internet ....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited June 2020
    isam said:

    Mr A is what Peter Hitchens thinks Enoch Powell was.

    If Mr B believed in God rather than White Supremacism, but never says so, never writes so, never indicates so externally in any way. would that mean he wasn't religious?
    Great question. I'd say he is religious because it's the belief that counts in this case. Conversely a regular church goer who does not believe is not religious.

    So I'm dropping this as a general rule now because it doesn't 100% work either philosophically or in practice.

    But it does for racism - behaviour trumps belief - actions speak louder than words and words speak louder than thoughts.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,878

    The last three times PBers called a new spike (April warm spell, both May warm spells), it didn’t happen.

    What? Some bloke on an Internet discussion board said something would happen and it didn't, so infectious diseases magically stop being infectious?

    Is there any limit to how moronic you people can be?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    They are toddlers. Moral and intellectual toddlers who will only do the right thing if a big boy does it first.

    For the first time ever I have genuine respect for David Lammy, who made clear on Question Time that he wouldn't be participating in the demonstrations, because '[you can't] one week condemn Dominic Cummings for travelling up the country and the next go out [and protest]'.

    Not just not a hypocrite, but an anti-hypocrite, at least this time. Well done that man!
    And no one in authority can match his words. Because they’ve spent the last few weeks excusing the inexcusable and replacing clear rules with incomprehensible ones to cover the back of their top apparatchik.

    This, incidentally, includes the scientists who have allowed themselves to be coopted in support of the government’s back-covering. So now they can’t say “don’t go”.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    Chris said:

    What? Some bloke on an Internet discussion board said something would happen and it didn't, so infectious diseases magically stop being infectious?

    Is there any limit to how moronic you people can be?
    We dumb down for you.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    Yes. Would be hard to argue against outdoor sport spectators if shouts at protests aren't spreading the virus.
    I doubt that logic will be followed, perhaps understandably. The bigger issue with something like a PL game at the Emirates is everyone piling on to the tube.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Chris said:

    What? Some bloke on an Internet discussion board said something would happen and it didn't, so infectious diseases magically stop being infectious?

    Is there any limit to how moronic you people can be?
    Charming
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2020
    isam said:

    Oh come off it! You have been calling a decline of roughly 50% in a month a "plateau"!
    No I called the period from about the end of April to the middle of May a plateau whilst various people were marvelling at the false decline caused by lagged data. I then called that it would move into gentle decline as the leading indicators were falling.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    During the April warm spell, thousands of mostly young people in London broke the lockdown on a daily basis.

    PBers assured us this would trigger a second spike.

    But, it didn’t.

    The dog that did not bark.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125

    Yes. Would be hard to argue against outdoor sport spectators if shouts at protests aren't spreading the virus.
    Might it also lead to churches reopening?

    I haven’t pulled out my eight foot horn in weeks.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    tlg86 said:

    I doubt that logic will be followed, perhaps understandably. The bigger issue with something like a PL game at the Emirates is everyone piling on to the tube.
    The NRL will be allowing very limited attendance next weekend. Will be interesting to see how that goes.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,064
    kinabalu said:

    Great question. I'd say he is religious because it's the belief that counts in this case. Conversely a regular church goer who does not believe is not religious.

    So I'm dropping this as a general rule now because it doesn't 100% work either philosophically or in practice.

    But it does for racism - behaviour trumps belief - actions speak louder than words and words speak louder than thoughts.
    Again its a language problem. Racism means different things to different people. It doesnt matter if kinabulu's descriptive logic is right or wrong if its not widely shared. We need distinct words that cover both those scenarios, and many of the other types of behaviour that some consider racist, and others dont, so we can be clear about exactly what we are talking about.

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Set against that, of course, is the tremendous problem of not knowing how long this is going to drag on for. A vaccine or an effective treatment might take years to develop or might never come along at all - and in the meantime people are being entreated to be so afraid of the virus that they hide in their individual brick boxes and don't come out unless it's unavoidable. That just isn't sustainable.

    There will be a significant fraction of the population that, for whatever reason (be it that they are shielding, or very old, or just very afraid,) will tough this out for as long as possible. But there'll also be an awful lot of people - including some older and more vulnerable ones - who will be thinking that they would rather like to live a little before they die, and would prefer to get out there and take their chances than endure a mere existence, by permission of anxious healthcare practitioners, that might continue forever.

    Spending ten weeks holed up in your flat waiting patiently to escape is one thing. The prospect of spending ten years incarcerated and wondering if you're going to die, whether of a non-Covid ailment or from the effects of advanced old age, before it's "safe" to start living a full life again is another prospect entirely.

    A life-altering illness is a big deal, but so is imprisonment. It's society's weapon of choice against serious convicted criminals for a reason. And at least most of them have some idea of when they're going to be released.
    Set against that is the knowledge that a vaccine or effective treatment (or effective immediate and local test) could be available soon.

    There's at least a 50% chance we could have a vaccine available (large scale, as well) by late September/early October. Better treatments are being improved all the time. An on-the-spot 20-minute reliable test is two-and-a-half weeks into a 6 week trial.

    It's a bit soon to be opting for a dichotomy of either assuming 10 years of incarceration, or accepting a high chance of infection.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,136
    tlg86 said:

    I doubt that logic will be followed, perhaps understandably. The bigger issue with something like a PL game at the Emirates is everyone piling on to the tube.
    True enough. I wonder how much bicycle parking there is at the Emirates?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,136
    ydoethur said:

    Might it also lead to churches reopening?

    I haven’t pulled out my eight foot horn in weeks.
    Churches are inside, so we already know they're risky.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834
    ydoethur said:

    Might it also lead to churches reopening?

    I haven’t pulled out my eight foot horn in weeks.
    My church has been told it won't be re-opening before July, but we are working on plans for then, with appropriate precautions.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kinabalu said:

    Great question. I'd say he is religious because it's the belief that counts in this case. Conversely a regular church goer who does not believe is not religious.

    So I'm dropping this as a general rule now because it doesn't 100% work either philosophically or in practice.

    But it does for racism - behaviour trumps belief - actions speak louder than words and words speak louder than thoughts.
    Wasn't Mr Lincoln, A. a 'racist' in some aspects of his thinking, and yet ...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited June 2020

    The last three times PBers called a new spike (April warm spell, both May warm spells), it didn’t happen.

    The continual predictions of the second wave do take on something of the appearance of one of these American preachers trying continually, with regular failures along the way, to forecast the Apocalypse. The faithful will, we are confidently told, be Raptured on such and such a date, and when each date has come and gone without any miraculous vanishings a new one is plucked out of thin air to succeed it.

    So far we've had the sunniest Spring on record, people invading the parks in London and then the beaches on the South Coast, more people starting to go back to work, the lifting of restrictions on outdoor exercise, the VE Day parties, businesses like B&Q, Ikea and takeaway restaurant chains gradually opening back up, the unshuttering of the garden centres, and, most recently, the partial re-opening of the schools.

    And still, the numbers of positive tests, hospitalisations and deaths all trend steadily downwards. So all these things which we were told to be terrified of because they might be the doorway to disaster are quickly forgotten, and whatever the next measure in the sequence is (presumably the general re-opening of shops on June 15th) becomes the latest point at which the Apocalypse is bound to be initiated.

    Why the latest batch of warnings should be any more valid than all of those which came before them is never adequately explained. All we can do is simply try these measures and see what happens. If the doom-mongers are right then eventually the second wave will show some signs of turning up, and then we try to decide how bad it is likely to be and how best to counter it. If it doesn't then we just keep on going.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834
    Carnyx said:

    Wasn't Mr Lincoln, A. a 'racist' in some aspects of his thinking, and yet ...
    Ditto Ghandi, but these things do need to be set in the context of their times. Both were more enlightened than average for their contemporaries.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,005
    The R rate went above one in parts of Germany after lockdown was relaxed, but it went back down again.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,064
    Carnyx said:

    Wasn't Mr Lincoln, A. a 'racist' in some aspects of his thinking, and yet ...
    The sub conscious human brain works heavily off pattern recognition, so the vast majority of us, myself included, will be racist in some aspects of our thinking. Studies show even black Americans find black Americans more scary and less trustworthy than white Americans.

    In my conscious decision making I certainly try not to be racist, but sure there will have been occasions when I have been done inadvertently.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Carnyx said:

    Wasn't Mr Lincoln, A. a 'racist' in some aspects of his thinking, and yet ...
    Indeed. Lincoln would be cancelled so fast if he were alive today it would make your head spin. You'd get articles from progressives arguing quite seriously that he was no better than Trump, and quite possibly worse:

    https://www.theguardian.com/g2/story/0,3604,332563,00.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125
    edited June 2020
    Carnyx said:

    Wasn't Mr Lincoln, A. a 'racist' in some aspects of his thinking, and yet ...
    I will say then that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of bringing about in any way the social and political equality of the white and black races

    https://www.history.com/news/5-things-you-may-not-know-about-lincoln-slavery-and-emancipation

    Being opposed to slavery doesn’t necessarily make somebody an anti-racist.

    (It is worth remembering the Emancipation Proclamation of 1863, even if it was legal, only abolished slavery in the Confederacy, not the United States.)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    edited June 2020
    kinabalu said:

    This is utterly meant without prejudice or mischief and I say it only because it happened and it surprised me -

    As I read that I pictured Michael Gove.
    Tbf Govey seems to be about the coke and the hardcore porn rather than the KKK-ing. Can't rule anything out though..
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954
    edited June 2020

    And no one in authority can match his words. Because they’ve spent the last few weeks excusing the inexcusable and replacing clear rules with incomprehensible ones to cover the back of their top apparatchik.

    This, incidentally, includes the scientists who have allowed themselves to be coopted in support of the government’s back-covering. So now they can’t say “don’t go”.
    Yes, imagine the moral cards Boris would hold if he had sacked Cummings: 'I lost the man who defeated The Blob, secured Brexit, destroyed The Elite and won me a general election. No sacrifice could be greater. No single action could evince more strikingly the unprecedented measures this crisis demands of us all.'
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,064

    The R rate went above one in parts of Germany after lockdown was relaxed, but it went back down again.

    That is almost inevitable from natural statistical variance (assuming R not miles below 1). The media will panic but its really not a problem if properly managed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Foxy said:

    Ditto Ghandi, but these things do need to be set in the context of their times. Both were more enlightened than average for their contemporaries.
    Indeed. And especially in their actions.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Might it also lead to churches reopening?

    I haven’t pulled out my eight foot horn in weeks.
    Just as long as you don't overdo the Cor Glorieux and Cremona stops. Nothing worse than gratuitous sax and violins.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125

    Tbf Govey seems to be about the coke and hardcore porn rather than the KKK-ing. Can't rule anything out though..
    If there were an organisation dedicated to the lynching of teachers, OTOH...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I have just been amused by a window poster 'We voted Conservative and are currently self isolating for 4 years'.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Set against that is the knowledge that a vaccine or effective treatment (or effective immediate and local test) could be available soon.

    There's at least a 50% chance we could have a vaccine available (large scale, as well) by late September/early October. Better treatments are being improved all the time. An on-the-spot 20-minute reliable test is two-and-a-half weeks into a 6 week trial.

    It's a bit soon to be opting for a dichotomy of either assuming 10 years of incarceration, or accepting a high chance of infection.
    Some good vibes around the vaccine. I'm feeling bullish that Covid is over by this time next year at the absolute latest.

    On the flip side, I get the impression the health impact might be greater than is widely known at the moment. Many people who survive but with lasting damage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125
    IshmaelZ said:

    Just as long as you don't overdo the Cor Glorieux and Cremona stops. Nothing worse than gratuitous sax and violins.
    Almost perfect, but I think you mean a Gamba not a Cremona.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    Fishing said:



    I'm no fan of Sunak, but it would be excellent trolling to the BLM crowd if the Conservatives elected our first non-white Party Leader and PM.

    Do you think the BLM "crowd" need to be trolled?

    As opposed to being listened to, for instance?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Almost perfect, but I think you mean a Gamba not a Cremona.
    In the past, some organ builders have incorrectly interpreted it as indicating a violin, after the Italian city of Cremona, famed for its violins.

    http://www.organstops.org/c/Cremona.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125
    justin124 said:

    I have just been amused by a window poster 'We voted Conservative and are currently self isolating for 4 years'.

    One of the great Dem bumper stickers of all time was 74-76.

    ‘Don’t blame me. I’m from Massachusetts.’
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,425
    Foxy said:

    Ditto Gandhi, but these things do need to be set in the context of their times. Both were more enlightened than average for their contemporaries.
    Gandhi was also a vegetarian :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125
    IshmaelZ said:

    In the past, some organ builders have incorrectly interpreted it as indicating a violin, after the Italian city of Cremona, famed for its violins.

    http://www.organstops.org/c/Cremona.html
    Still works better as a Gamba.

    Oddly, I haven’t played an organ with a good Gamba since leaving Gloucestershire. Round here they like rather weedy salcionals.
This discussion has been closed.